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tomorrowusa · 6 months

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In the UK, political analysts and journalists have been searching the thesaurus to find synonyms for disaster to describe what happened to the Conservative Party in two by-elections on Thursday.

The by-election results only confirm that the Tories are on a downward spiral.

Peter Walker at The Guardian spells out the implications.

But even though Tory aides will point to the murky circumstances in which the incumbents in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, Chris Pincher and Nadine Dorries, departed their seats, Labour’s success will send a chill through the spines of Conservative MPs for several reasons. The first is the sheer scale of the losses. The byelection record tables for swings and biggest majorities overturned are becoming increasingly filled with votes that took place since 2019, and there is now another one to be added. Dorries’ 24,664 Conservative majority was the biggest numerically to be lost in a byelection at least since 1945, potentially ever, as Labour’s Alistair Strathern won a majority of 1,192. While Tamworth involved a slightly smaller majority, the swing to Labour’s second new MP, Sarah Edwards, of 23.9 percentage points to her party from the Tories, was even greater than the 23.7 percentage point swing in July’s Selby and Ainsty byelection. The second reason for Labour joy and Conservative jitters is the way that Labour pushed their way to a win in Mid Bedfordshire despite a full-on parallel effort from the fearsome Liberal Democrat byelection machine, one which has delivered four massive wins since 2021. The Lib Dems had insisted that in the mainly rural seat only they could tempt enough Conservative votes to switch to them. In the end, their vote tally rose, but even they were steamrollered by a Labour machine clearly motivated by the prospect of government. The Mid Beds result also carries another bad omen for Sunak and his party: the way that English voters are becoming increasingly good at deciding who they need to club together tactically to unseat the Conservatives.

Increasing numbers of people are voting tactically in these by-elections to specifically defeat Conservative candidates. They may not agree with everything that Labour or the Lib Dems may stand for, but the main point is to remove the Conservatives from power.

Tamworth is was statistically the 57th safest Tory seat in the UK out of the 350+ which the Conservatives hold. It doesn't necessarily mean that Labour and the Lib Dems would pick up almost 300 seats. But in the next general election, which must be held no later than 28 January 2025, the Conservative Party will have to defend many seats which they've been taking for granted.

One fun aspect of the October 19th by-elections is that the unsuccessful Conservative candidates bolted out of the buildings as soon as the results were made known. It doesn't violate any rules, though it's poor election night etiquette.

They probably had some idea where things were headed and wanted to avoid answering questions about the WAY bad night for their party.

To see the extent of the collapse of the Conservative vote, check out the results on a graph.

If you're wondering why the BBC doesn't list every single candidate on those graphics, check out the entire list for Mid Bedfordshire which includes one named Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India.

Here's a list of how parties fared in the 19 by-elections since the general election of 2019. The Conservatives have won just 1 of the 12 in the past 20 months; and that was a narrow victory to retain Boris Johnson's seat for Uxbridge and South Ruislip. More important than the number of Tory losses is their geography – constituencies lost to Labour and the Lib Dems in traditionally Conservative areas.

#uk #house of commons #uk elections #by-elections #tamworth #mid bedfordshire #labour #lib dems #conservative party #scottish national party #sarah edwards #alistair strathern #keir starmer #winter is coming for the tories

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head-post · 6 months

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UK Labour Party wins by-election in two seats

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s ruling Conservative Party was defeated in two by-elections on Friday, with Alistair Strathern and Sarah Edwards winning in Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth respectively.

By-election results indicate that voter support in Tamworth, central England, and Mid Bedfordshire, north of London, has shifted from the Conservatives to Labour.

Keir Starmer, leader of the opposing Labour Party, claimed his party would be able to compete and win seats in parts of the country where the opposition had never won before.

History is in the making.