#YearOfTheJay

[thedfa]

2013: Year of the "Nay"

The Toronto Blue Jays season so far can be summed up in one word - shocking. Now I mean that on multiple levels. I am shocked at the fact that they are currently sitting in last place in the American League East Division standings. I am also shocked at the fact that they had an eleven-game winning streak to help push them back into a playoff picture for a certain time; that hasn’t helped much.

Looking at this team, who exactly one week ago had four players chosenfor the Major League Baseball All-Star Game, I can’t help but remind myself of the feelings I had around this time in past seasons - disappointment, outrage, and sadness all rolled up into one. I have been following the team closely for almost ten years now and not seeing them secure a playoff berth, let alone win a championship, a sort of humbling feeling comes back again, “So this is what a Toronto Maple Leafs fan felt from 2004-2012." I also find it very coincidental that my favourite NHL team (Canadiens) and my favourite MLB team won their respective championships the same year and haven’t won them since.

Now the Jays went through some major changes during the winter. There was that blockbuster trade with the Miami Marlins that sent Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck to the Blue Jays in exchange for Henderson Alvarez, Yunel Escobar, Adeniy Hechavarria, Jeff Mathis, and three good prospects (pitchers Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Nicolino, and outfielder Jake Marisnick), which as of now has not worked out as planned. Another big trade was the acquisition of 2012 NL Cy Young Award winner Robert Allen Dickey from the New York Mets along with catchers Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas in exchange for John Buck, stud catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud, good pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard and prospective outfielder Wuilmer Becerra. 

So far, Reyes has spent most of the season on the disabled list due to that ankle injury he suffered back in April, and since coming back has performed admirably, arguably the brightest spot of the Miami trade. Mark Buehrle, who in my opinion is nothing more than a #4 starter slotted in the #3 spot because of his throwing arm, is not playing up to his potential - even if he was in the #4 spot. However, he is thirty-five so I’ll give him a bit of a break. Emilio Bonifacio is also playing well…for the role he has been given with the club. The biggest disappointment from the blockbuster trade with Marlins and the one player that was the centre-piece of the whole trade (it is widely believed that GM Alex Anthopoulos inquired originally about one player and it snowballed from there into a blockbuster) is Josh Johnson. He should be slated as the #2 or #3 starter, but because stud Brandon Morrow was the de-facto #2 and they needed a lefty in the middle of the rotation to change things up, Josh Johnson is the #4 in the starting rotation for the Jays. His stats oddly enough reflect that of the #5 spot. He’s been inconsistent, to say the least, and when I look back at the trade and the whole trade revolving around acquiring Johnson, I can’t help but wonder and think, “What was the point?" To be fair, Josh Johnson has the stuff to be a potential ace when he’s completely healthy (see 2010 season). However, he is (and has been this year) injury prone, which I believe can have an effect on his game. I was hoping that when we acquired Johnson, that as the #4 starter would face-off against easier matchups (in terms of opposing starting pitchers) and be able to use that to his advantage. Unfortunately that isn’t always the case and Josh has yet to show me or any other Jays fan that he can be a consistent force in the Blue Jays rotation, even when he is healthy and in the lineup. He is a free agent after this season and I am unsure on whether the Jays should bring Johnson back. However, I am pretty sure that he will be wearing a uniform from another team come April 2014 anyways. 

After that blockbuster trade with the Marlins, the Jays were going all out for it, as majority owners Rogers Communications unloaded some payroll money to acquire all these players, including giving a brand new three-year contract worth $29 million with a club option in 2016 for about $12 million to Dickey. Now he was brought in to be the ace of the rotation (Ricky Romero, who was supposed to fill that role going forward with Toronto, has had problems with the mental aspect of his game that has been affecting it), but he’s been almost as inconsistent as Johnson. This whole transaction, again, hasn’t bore any fruit and has done nothing to change the fate of this baseball club.

Now Steve Simmons suggests that the Blue Jays starting pitchers just aren’t good enough, and in a lot of ways he is right. However, I still feel Dickey could be a knuckleball ace again. He pitched over 230 innings during his Cy Young Award winning season, way more than any season he has ever had - I mean he’s no Roy Halladay, who would have almost double digit Complete Game stats some seasons (Four seasons with nine CGs, three of them consecutively). A less than 200 IP 2013 season may help Dickey in the long run, and may help the Blue Jays too. Speaking before about injury prone pitchers, Brandon Morrow, who has been injured most of the season and should be back soon, will solidify the top half of the Blue Jays starting rotation (provided he is healthy) in future seasons with the ball club.

The bottom half is the cause for most concern. Buehrle is a #4 guy, playing out of his reach in the #3 spot. Josh Johnson is most likely bolting for free agency this winter, and the #5 is a big question mark. What I would like to see for the bottom half of the starting rotation (and this is pretty wishful thinking people, but bear with me), is the resurgence of Ricky Romero from Triple-A Buffalo after dealing with “Chucky" and beating his demon sub-conscious to a pulp so he can go back to being somewhere close to his old ace-like self. If he can be the #3 guy, allowing for Buehrle to actually move down to #5 (I don’t know any teams that have two lefties going back-to-back in the starting rotation) and hopefully one of Kyle Drabek or Drew Hutchison (both suffered serious elbow injuries requiring Tommy John surgeries last summer and have yet to re-join the ball club) can fill out the rotation at #4; I would be thrilled with that rotation on paper. Another scenario is that Romero plays so well going into the 2014 season that he makes his way into the #2 spot by the 2014 All-Star break at the latest and Morrow moves down to the #3 spot. Imagine two former aces re-gaining their form in Dickey and Romero, another stud pitcher in Morrow in the 1,2 or 3 spot of the rotation and the starting pitching for the Blue Jays could be unstoppable, again provided everyone is healthy for most of the season.

Yet I haven’t even reached my main point of this post. Do you know how many runs they scored on average during their 11-game win streak? 6.36 runs. Do you know how many runs they have scored on average since that streak? I can’t remember exactly but I think it was around 3.5 runs per game. That is a huge difference. Also, the starting pitcher’s ERA during the streak was 2.65; since the streak it is A LOT higher (5.19 ERA in July for ALL pitching). This year when the Blue Jays are on, they’re probably one of the best teams in MLB. When the Blue Jays are off, they’re probably one of the worst teams in MLB. A team with such polarizing play is not going to be able to make it to the dance, let alone survive the playoffs to make it to the World Series. That is the crux of the Blue Jays performance for the 2013 season so far. They need to stabilize their polarizing play to be leaders in the race for the playoffs from start to finish (or anywhere in between).

Because of this reason, I am counting the Blue Jays out…right now. I sort of counted them out before the 11-game win streak (in an unofficial capacity, not declaring, “I’m done with this team," but more like, “Looks like no playoff berth again for the Jays and their fans."), but the odds of them replicating that success and then some to actually make the playoffs in any capacity is very, very slim as of now. It’s time for the team to look forward to the 2014 season, a hopeful tomorrow.

#BlueJays #2013season #YearOfTheJay #YearOfTheNay #StillLoveThisTeam