#JON AND SARA DON'T READ YET

[hamliet]

So… what do you think was in the dornish letter sent to Aegon?

Can I address this in a somewhat circuitous way? Haha.

Well, the thing about Martin's writing is that when you look at how rumors are treated in ASOIAF, which allows multiple primary viewpoints that allow us to weigh the accuracy of rumors other characters hear about those they've never met but we know, you realize there's a pattern. The rumors are somehow often rooted in truth, yet very rarely actually accurate in how they are told to others. We might hear three or four variations of the same rumor, and the common thread is true, but the spins on it say more about biases and culture than fact.

In Fire & Blood, because it's a history, we can see that some of the rumors are probably based in truth (otherwise why would Martin include them?) but probably not always accurate, much like in the main series. At the same time, we don't have other viewpoints from reliable witnesses as it happens, so that adds uncertainty that isn't there in ASOIAF. Thus, we have to weigh the rumors bases on other details, like character traits all sources seem to agree on, etc.

The show House of the Dragon actually did a good job of this in how they melded the rumors of Rhaenyra losing her virginity to Daemon and Criston (which clearly can't both be true), and Criston's grudge against Rhaenyra and rumored subsequent proposal together. The truth can more or less be found by piecing together aspects of each rumor.

Other rumors I think can be determined: Mushroom's relaying of Mysaria and the brothel queens of Helaena and Alicent. It is absolutely within Mysaria's character to suggest this, so I do believe she suggested this. I do not believe Rhaenyra allowed it to actually happen, hence the very firm denial that this ever happened by Gyldalyn. Plus, Mushroom never says this actually happened, just relays the suggestion, so the logical conclusion is it did not. But the fact that it's present at all surely indicates it didn't come just from Mushroom's twisted mind.

Sara Snow: enough with people suggesting she didn't exist. She's mentioned in the book alongside a Pact of Ice and Fire (a clear callback to the actual series' title), and is a clear allusion to both Lyanna and Jon Snow. She existed. Martin would not have written her in there if she did not. A bastard disappearing from history is hardly unheard of, either. What happened between her and Jace isn't clear, of course, but we do know that it is notably odd that both sources point to Jace declining to marry Baela when she was eager to, and the Jace and Aemond parallels become stronger when you compare Alys/Aemond and Sara/Jace. Thus, it seems very likely something happened, whether it was romantic feelings, her simply teaching Jace to pray to the old gods, or the marriage discussed.

So, let's look at the rumors about the letter and about Rhaenys. What we know for sure:

Meraxes was shot down from the sky in 10 AC.

Rhaenys' body was never returned to King's Landing.

Princess Deria of Dorne brought Meraxes' skull and a letter to Aegon in 13 AC.

Aegon immediately flew to Dragonstone after reading the letter, and then agreed to terms of peace.

Rumors:

Rhaenys fell to her death.

Rhaenys was crushed under Meraxes.

Rhaenys was found alive and slowly tortured to death by the Ullers.

Common sense conclusions:

The letter said something about Rhaenys' death.

The fact that Aegon, who loved her, immediately wanted to be alone after reading it and never spoke about its contents means that it had great value to him.

It would be exceedingly unlikely for Rhaenys to survive such a fall, but not impossible.

Now let's look at the rumors. Two of them indicate she died in the fall; one does not. Conclusion: Rhaenys was probably horrifically injured in the fall, perhaps fatally. Surviving such a fall is possible; surviving uninjured? Seems highly unlikely.

The existence of the letter indicates that someone had something to say about her death that was meaningful and did not provoke Aegon to want to immediately raze Dorne in revenge, so we can conclude it was not mocking her death, and probably indicates that Rhaenys lived for a bit after her fall.

My personal conclusion, thus, is that Rhaenys was horrifically injured in the fall and cared for our of human decency and compassion. The letter conveys this to Aegon, while also somehow proving to him that the contents are true (probably by including a piece of information only Rhaenys would have known).

There's one more thing. Aegon flying off to Dragonstone is interesting, as is the note that Rhaenys' body was never brought back to King's Landing. That's clever wording there. Dragonstone is, of course, where the Targaryens would cremate their dead. That Aegon immediately headed to Dragonstone after receiving Meraxes' skull strongly indicates that the Martells sent either Rhaenys' bones or her ashes to Dragonstone (not King's Landing), and Aegon went there to either cremate her and scatter, or just scatter, her ashes.

I was also recently shown a reddit theory that is similar, except it suggests the Ullers nursed her back to health and then tortured her; the Martells then rescued her but could not save her. This is also very possible, but I think the simpler explanation is the fall being the main cause of her death; plus, Martin records her death in 10 AC. But that's hair-splitting, imo; the main gist of the letter is likely we tried, she died, she said this as her last words, here's her body, remember we're people too just like we remembered she was.

#rhaenys targaryen #aegon the conqueror #asoiaf #fire & blood meta #fire & blood #a song of ice and fire #asoiaf theory #jacaerys velaryon #sara snow #letter from dorne

[groves]

anyway i have. a variety of thoughts re: The Last of Us Part II, and i wanna get them out, so beware spoilers below the cut

i don’t wanna go the absolutist route of saying this game was incredible or this game was total bullshit - there were things i liked and things i very much did not

druck has been saying from the very beginning that this game was supposed to be about hate and cycles of violence and what trauma can do to a person and like. listen they achieved their goal with that - that being said, personally, i’m very over torture porn

let’s start with the good, shall we

i loved the gameplay! obviously very reminiscent of the first game, but i like the new add-ons of the ability tree, the new items you could craft, the variety of much bigger, more intricate, and interesting maps was hella fun

holy shit the standing/crouch/prone mechanic was smooth as shit and so much fun. i don’t think i’ve ever played a game where you could go prone like that, let alone with that much ease and versatility. it made a lot of the battles really fun and more versatile than they would have been with just boxes to hide behind

abby’s hair?? i don’t think i’ve ever played a character with hair animated past their shoulders/upper back?? she had a long braid that moved seamlessly as she moved - i’ve always assumed long hair on a player character was something that was deceptively difficult to animate (like characters taking off clothing, which ND were the first to achieve in Thief’s End), so idk if any other tech/animation people can confirm or deny that abby’s hair is kind of an animation breakthrough?

the similarities and differences between ellie and abby’s gameplay based on their strengths/weaknesses, materials, and training was a good touch

i know a lot of people didn’t like her, but abby grew on me a lot. do i love her as much as ellie? not by a long shot, but playing as abby for so long was very effective in driving the theme of cycles of violence home. As in, these are two girls who otherwise would have no reason to be enemies, neither of whom are inherently evil, but they keep doing things to hurt each other and brew this hatred in each other, neither of them feeling like they can stop

i loved a lot of our new cast of characters

i would die for dina, who could have seen that coming

i really liked jesse! i wasn’t sure how i was going to feel after the pregnancy reveal but he was just. super solid the whole time and i appreciated him

yara and lev. my children. “i’ve never heard a scar curse before” “that was my first time” an angel

increased diversity! (which is. a double-edged sword, see below) canonically lesbian ellie, bisexual and jewish dina, trans lev, many more characters of color, you love to see it

listen this is just me being a lesbian talking but despite all the bad it’s just nice to play a canon lesbian with a girlfriend in a mainstream, non-rpg game, okay

the genuine portrayal of trauma, PTSD, and triggers. it was, uh, very hard hitting

JJ. the entire domestic scene at the farm. we’re ignoring the rest of the game, that’s where it ends, happy farm gays and their beautiful baby boy

....and the bad

the obvious one - joel’s death. i went into this game fairly sure he was going to die, but it was just so SOON and abrupt and really didn’t do the character justice. i’m extremely grateful we got to see more of him and ellie through flashbacks, but the literal entire purpose of his death was to traumatize ellie and that’s shitty. he was fridged.

i realize this is a very violent and traumatic game/franchise, and the more minority characters you have, the more likely they are to be victims of that violence. HOWEVER, you can’t help but notice when most of the minority characters are killed, mutilated, or repeatedly traumatized.

killed: jesse, yara, manny, nora, isaac (along with owen, mel, and joel)

mutilated: yara, ellie

repeatedly traumatized: ellie, lev, dina

i love to see a young trans character played by a trans actor, but it would also be nice if his story wasn’t like. entirely about being shunned and targeted bc he’s trans y’know

all of this begs the question of bad/subpar representation vs no representation at all and quite honestly i don’t have an answer to that

i said before that i appreciate the narrative and gameplay risk they took with having you play as abby as almost a deuteragonist, but i missed ellie, who this game was supposed to be about. 

FIGHTING ELLIE?? i died like 5 times bc i was sitting there screaming “i don’t WANT to hurt her??”

again, i appreciate The Point, that neither of them are inherently evil, but have been caught up in this cycle that has made them enemies of each other. ellie has gone down a dark path and lost her way. it was very effective naughty dog i get it okay pls don’t make me hurt my child again

i’m not entirely sure what the point of the seraphites was besides the aesthetic™ tbh

not that anyone’s complaining about the aesthetic™ tho

the whole santa barbara sequence felt. unnecessary and tacked on. again, i get it, ellie choosing to continue the cycle when she could have let it go, but i feel like that also could have been driven home with a little extra time in seattle

finally, the ending:

liked: that ellie didn’t kill abby. by the time we got to the final fight on the beach i very much didn’t want to kill her. the game proved its point. i just wanted her to get to a firefly base with lev and be safe, and break the cycle.

disliked: the seeming hopelessness of ellie’s story? they gave us a crumb with the fact that she was going to try and reconcile her relationship with joel before he was killed, and honestly, i don’t blame dina for leaving, but even a HINT that ellie was going to go find dina and make it up to her and hopefully settle down and have a loving life with her girlfriend and son and recover would have made it so much better. and i guess it could be open to interpretation, but leaving her guitar and all her artwork of her family doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

overall, i had a fun time playing it for the most part, but it’s left me feeling sad and mournful and hurting. which, again, might be the point. but if it is, i don’t like that point very much.

#JON AND SARA DON'T READ YET #i broke it down to what i liked and didn't like and tried to be fair and nuanced #someone yell with me about it #the last of us #the last of us part 2 #the last of us part two #tlou #tlou2 #tlou 2 #tlou part two #tlou part 2 #ellie williams #joel miller #naughty dog #tlou spoilers #tlou 2 spoilers #tlou2 spoilers #spoilers #gaming

[tocinephile]

T'was the night before the Oscars...

Here we are again. The final stab at a decent award show ceremony amidst a global pandemic. I'm not getting my hopes up after the Golden Globes and SAG zoom calls, in fact I've read very little about the upcoming ceremonies since they announced they would not be using zoom... and then promptly reversed that decision.

It would seem no matter how late we delay the Oscars, I still find myself the night before the show scrambling to watch all the Best Picture nominees. It also hasn't slipped my mind all the promises I'd made to discuss my top films of 2020 and the things I would not have seen if not for this global catastrophe. Having had a number of conversations with fellow cinephiles, many have also found themselves very unenthused about award season contenders, dramatic pictures or anything with heavier content so to speak, or even movies in general. The struggle to concentrate is real.

I'm going to get right into my list of predictions with the caveats that I have yet to see Sound of Metal, and I have to watch the second half of Judas and the Black Messiah after I hit 'post' here. You will find as we go through, there's lots more I haven't seen.

Best Picture

“The Father”

“Judas and the Black Messiah”

“Mank”

“Minari”

“Nomadland” - Will win

“Promising Young Woman” - Should win (though I liked Nomadland very much as well)

“Sound of Metal”

“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

Best Director

Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”)

David Fincher (“Mank”) - excellent director but I actually don't think he left his mark on Mank as much as he did many of his other films, I've questioned previously whether he should have gotten the nomination

Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)

Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) - Will win/should win

Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)

Best Actor in a Leading Role - very strong contenders all around in this category, every one of them (I'm sure I'll have the same reaction about Riz Ahmed) made me say "holy shit" in amazement out loud

Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)

Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) - Will win/should win

Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)

Gary Oldman (“Mank”)

Steven Yeun (“Minari”)

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) - I think if not Andra Day, then Viola will win it

Andra Day (“The United States v. Billie Holiday”) - Will win?/should win

Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)

Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)

Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) - I think he's also got a decent shot in this category

Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) - Will win/should win

Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)

Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)

Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Maria Bakalova (‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) - truth be told I didn't think her performance was so great that she should get an Oscar nomination for it

Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)

Olivia Colman (“The Father”) - another potentially unpopular comment... while I think Olivia Colman is one of the best actresses and most delightful people in existence, given her range and talent I don't she particularly excelled in The Father to make it an Oscar-worthy performance.

Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)

Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”) - Will win/should win

Best Animated Feature Film - I only saw one film so I have no basis for comparison

“Onward” (Pixar)

“Over the Moon” (Netflix)

“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (Netflix)

“Soul” (Pixar) - will win

“Wolfwalkers” (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS)

Best Adapted Screenplay

“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad

“The Father,” Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller - should win...and will win?

“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao

“One Night in Miami,” Kemp Powers - might also win?

“The White Tiger,” Ramin Bahrani

Best Original Screenplay

“Judas and the Black Messiah.” Screenplay by Will Berson, Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas

“Minari,” Lee Isaac Chung

“Promising Young Woman,” Emerald Fennell - 50/50 will win/definitely should win tho!

“Sound of Metal.” Screenplay by Darius Marder, Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance

“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Aaron Sorkin - 50/50 will win... I really didn't get onboard this movie, but I will say the script was the best thing about it

Best Original Song - I'm not even going to venture a guess...

“Fight for You,” (“Judas and the Black Messiah”). Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas

“Hear My Voice,” (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”). Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

“Húsavík,” (“Eurovision Song Contest”). Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson

“Io Si (Seen),” (“The Life Ahead”). Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini

“Speak Now,” (“One Night in Miami”). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

Best Original Score - I actually didn't think much of any of the scores in any of the films I've seen in 2020...

“Da 5 Bloods,” Terence Blanchard

“Mank,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

“Minari,” Emile Mosseri

“News of the World,” James Newton Howard

“Soul,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste - will win

Best Sound - I suspect it might be Sound of Metal but I haven't watched it yet. I've also not seen Greyhound.

“Greyhound,” Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman

“Mank,” Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin

“News of the World,” Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

“Soul,” Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

“Sound of Metal,” Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

Best Costume Design

“Emma,” Alexandra Byrne - will win

“Mank,” Trish Summerville

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Ann Roth - should win

“Mulan,” Bina Daigeler - should also win

“Pinocchio,” Massimo Cantini Parrini

Best Animated Short Film - I didn't watch a single Oscar-nominated short this year

“Burrow” (Disney Plus/Pixar)

“Genius Loci” (Kazak Productions)

“If Anything Happens I Love You” (Netflix)

“Opera” (Beasts and Natives Alike)

“Yes-People” (CAOZ hf. Hólamói)

Best Live-Action Short Film - I didn't watch a single Oscar-nominated short this year

“Feeling Through”

“The Letter Room”

“The Present”

“Two Distant Strangers”

“White Eye”

Best Cinematography

“Judas and the Black Messiah,” Sean Bobbitt

“Mank,” Erik Messerschmidt - will win/should win

“News of the World,” Dariusz Wolski

“Nomadland,” Joshua James Richards

“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Phedon Papamichael

Best Documentary Feature - I thought I watched a decent number of docs in 2020, but apparently not the right ones because I saw none of these.

“Collective,” Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana

“Crip Camp,” Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder

“The Mole Agent,” Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez

“My Octopus Teacher,” Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster

“Time,” Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

Best Documentary Short Subject - I didn't watch a single Oscar-nominated short this year

“Colette,” Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard

“A Concerto Is a Conversation,” Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

“Do Not Split,” Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook

“Hunger Ward,” Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman

“A Love Song for Latasha,” Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

Best Film Editing

“The Father,” Yorgos Lamprinos - 50/50 will win/should win

“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao

“Promising Young Woman,” Frédéric Thoraval

“Sound of Metal,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Alan Baumgarten - 50/50 will win

Best International Feature Film

“Another Round” (Denmark) - will win

“Better Days” (Hong Kong) - should win (yes, because I'm biased, plus it's also the only other film aside from Another Round that I've seen in this category and I liked it a lot better, but also, just because it's very fine film)

“Collective” (Romania)

“The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia)

“Quo Vadis, Aida?”(Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Emma,” Marese Langan, Laura Allen, Claudia Stolze - will win

“Hillbilly Elegy,” Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney, Matthew Mungle

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson - should win

“Mank,” Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams, Colleen LaBaff

“Pinocchio,” Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

Best Production Design

“The Father.” Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone - I don't think this is the best Production Design but I do think it's underrated what they did and that it should be recognized a different kind of creativity went into designing the sets for this film.

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton

“Mank.” Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale - will win? I do think the Production Design was spectacular...

“News of the World.” Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

“Tenet.” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas - should win

Best Visual Effects

“Love and Monsters,” Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox

“The Midnight Sky,” Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins

“Mulan,” Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram

“The One and Only Ivan,” Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez

“Tenet,” Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher - will win/should win... like why would it not win??

Ok, I wasn't very decisive in some of those categories and since I'm taking part in an Oscar pool I will have to make some choices and refine my selections before tomorrow. I will share my final Oscar pool pics, do my part bombarding everyone's twitter tomorrow evening, and review after the awards where it all went right/wrong.

#oscar predictions #academyaward