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junker-town · 6 years

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What March Madness would look like if every NBA player stayed all 4 years

Welcome to an alternate universe of college basketball featuring Karl-Anthony Towns, Ben Simmons and Jahlil Okafor.

College is typically the fastest years of your life. This is particularly the case for the basketball mega-prospects who are talented enough to leave school early for the NBA.

Perhaps that’s why the collective reaction to this Karl-Anthony Towns tweet was shock, awe and a little bit of horror.

It’s been a long time coming my brothers, Senior Night is finally upon us #BBN pic.twitter.com/h3bsoNeXBo

— Karl-Anthony Towns (@KarlTowns) February 28, 2018

Yes, Karl-Antony Towns and Devin Booker could still be playing basketball for free at Kentucky. Instead they are extremely rich and very good NBA players. Both are barely old enough to get into a bar.

It got us thinking: what would college hoops look like if everyone stayed four years?

An important note

We are not considering the number of available scholarships here. We are also not considering that perhaps Mohamed Bamba wouldn’t have picked Texas if he had Jarrett Allen and Myles Turner already entrenched in the front court.

This is just for fun. Stop being so anti-fun.

The Final Four teams

Duke

PG Tyus Jones, senior

SG Brandon Ingram, junior

SF Jayson Tatum, sophomore

PF Marvin Bagley, freshman

C Jahlil Okafor, senior

Bench: F Justise Winslow (senior), SG Luke Kennard (junior), G Grayson Allen (senior), C/PF Wendell CarterJr. (freshman), G Frank Jackson (sophomore)

Please consider that Duke won the 2015 national championship with four freshman scoring 60 of their 68 points in the title game. Now consider that they’re all seniors and two of those players are coming off the bench. Holy moly, is this group stacked.

Duke starts four top-five draft picks (we’re comfortable penciling Bagley in there for now) in addition to one of the best college point guards of the decade in Jones. Duke brings three lottery picks off the bench in Winslow, Kennard and Carter Jr. Duke reduces Grayson Allen to a microwave scorer off the bench.

I view this team as the Death Star of the exercise: absurdly talented with one possible fatal flaw. That would be front court defense, where Okafor and Bagley are likely to get roasted even by amateur players. That said, this team’s offense would be so amazing that it probably wouldn’t matter.

Kentucky

G Tyus Ulis, senior

G De’Aaron Fox, sophomore

G Devin Booker, senior

PF Trey Lyles, senior

C Karl-Anthony Towns, senior

Bench: G Malik Monk (sophomore), C/PF Bam Adebayo (sophomore), F Kevin Knox (freshman), C Skal Labissiere (junior), PG Isaiah Briscoe (junior)

Bring back the platoon system because this Kentucky team is stacked. Towns would unequivocally be the best player in college basketball -- and this time he wouldn’t have to split minutes with Dakari Johnson (seriously: Towns was seventh on UK in minutes per game as a freshman). Devin Booker would finally get the spotlight role he always deserved. Ulis and Fox would be an incredible backcourt, with Malik Monk providing shooting off the bench.

Only Duke could match Kentucky’s combination of size, shooting, athleticism and depth. We need this make believe championship game to happen right now.

Kansas

PG DeVonte Graham, senior

SG Josh Jackson, sophomore

SF Kelly Oubre, senior

PF Cliff Alexander, senior

C Cheick Diallo, junior

Bench: SF Svi Mykhailiuk, C Udoka Azubuike, SG Lagerald Vick, G Malik Newman

The Jayhawks wouldn’t have the lottery pick star power of Duke or Kentucky, but this team is quietly loaded. It’s easy to forget that Alexander and Diallo would have been monster college players if ever given an opportunity, especially as upperclassmen. Oubre has turned into a damn good role player in his third season with the Wizards, while Josh Jackson is starting to come into his own in Phoenix.

We hear Bill Self is looking into ways to get Perry Ellis an 11th year of eligibility.

Arizona

G Allonzo Trier, junior

G Rawle Alkins, sophomore

G Stanley Johnson, senior

F Lauri Markkanen, sophomore

C Deandre Ayton, freshman

Bench: G Kobi Simmons (sophomore), PG Parker Jackson-Cartwright (senior), Dusan Ristic (center), Brandon Randolph (freshman)

Dear lord, that front court. Chicago Bulls fans will not stop dreaming about turning it into a reality come June.

This Arizona team would have five guys on the floor who could give you buckets. There is no true point guard, which would be an issue. But even if each starter took turns playing iso ball, Arizona would still be so talented that it wouldn’t really matter.

Who else would be really good?

UCLA

PG Lonzo Ball, sophomore

SG Aaron Holiday, sophomore

F Jonah Bolden, senior

PF TJ Leaf, sophomore

C Kevon Looney, senior

Bench: C Thomas Welsh (senior), C/PF Ike Anigbogu (sophomore), PG Jaylen Hands (freshman), SG Kris Wilkes (freshman)

Get off those Lonzo jokes while you still can because he’s quietly been one of the best rookies in the NBA after a slow start. Ball might like more shooting around him, but the front court speed here would give UCLA a killer transition attack. Don’t discount Bolden, a Sixers-draftee currently putting up big numbers in Europe, or Looney, who would be a fantastic rim runner as a senior.

North Carolina

PG Joel Berry, senior

SG Theo Pinson, senior

SF Justin Jackson, senior

PF Luke Maye, junior / Cameron Johnson, junior

C Tony Bradley, sophomore

This is essentially the same team Carolina won the title with last year, only this time a first-round pick in Tony Bradley gets a starter’s role and Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson give UNC more shooting and spacing in the front court.

Gonzaga

PG Nigel Williams-Goss, senior

G Josh Perkins, junior

G Zach Norvell Jr., sophomore

PF Domantas Sabonis, senior

C Zach Collins, sophomore

The Sabonis-Collins front court would be so deadly. Also don’t forget that Nigel Williams-Goss was one of the best players in the country last season and had another year of eligibility left.

Who are the sleepers?

Texas

Mo Bamba at center, Jarrett Allen at power forward, Myles Turner at small forward. It’s beautiful. Do they have guards? Who cares. Just let the three five-star 7-footers pass the ball to one another all game long like bullies on a playground playing keepaway.

Florida State

There’s real NBA talent here with 6’11 forward Jonathan Isaac (sophomore), would-be junior guard Malik Beasley and Dwayne Bacon on the other wing. The Seminoles also have solid depth this year, so the likes of Phil Cofer, C.J. Walker, Terance Mann, ect. would be able to fill out a quality lineup around them.

Ohio State

This would essentially be Ohio State’s current team + D’Angelo Russell. Hey, that’d be pretty good! The Buckeyes finished second in the Big Ten this season and are a projected No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Russell was ridiculously awesome as a college freshman, and would likely torch the entire country as a senior.

Syracuse

Malachi Richardson and Tyler Lydon as juniors, Chris McCullough as a senior, they’d still have Tyus Battle ..... not bad.

Washington

Dejounte Murray is real good for the Spurs. Marquese Chriss was a top-10 draft pick by the Suns with game-changing athleticism in the front court. Both would be juniors, joined by sophomore guard and former No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, plus a supporting cast that enters the Pac-12 tournament as a bubble team. Fultz thought he was going to play with Murray and Chriss when he originally committed, so it would be nice to see what could have done with a real team around him. You know, if he remembers how to shoot like he did in college again.

UNLV

Rashad Vaughn would be a senior and one of the best two guards in America. Stephen Zimmerman as a junior center would be very, very good. Pat McCaw is a vital player for the Warriors, so he’d probably be OK back at the college level, too.

LSU

LSU with Ben Simmons and Antonio Blakeney as juniors! A virtual lock to be the most disappointing team in the country.

Who wins?

I’m picking Kentucky over Duke in this fictional universe national title game. Sorry.

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northernnba · 6 years

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Brooklyn Nets vs. New York Knicks Preview: Jarrett Allen Gets Some Preseason Tests - Brooklynnets.com

Brooklynnets.com

Brooklyn Nets vs. New York Knicks Preview: Jarrett Allen Gets Some Preseason Tests Brooklynnets.com The Brooklyn Nets open up the preseason Wednesday night against the New York Knicks at Barclays Center, giving second-year center Jarrett Allen a matchup against physical 6-foot-11, 250-pound center Enes Kanter. It will be the first of two matchups ... Brooklyn Nets: Player grades from 107-102 loss to KnicksNothin' But Nets Brooklyn Nets vs. New York Knicks - 10/3/18 NBA Pick, Odds, and PredictionSports Chat Place (blog) Allonzo Trier making the most of New York Knicks preseasonNorthJersey.com Bleacher Report all 79 news articles »

#NBA #Brooklyn #Nets

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marilynngmesalo · 6 years

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Dwight Howard’s back problems delaying his Wizards debut

Dwight Howard’s back problems delaying his Wizards debut https://ift.tt/eA8V8J Dwight Howard’s back problems delaying his Wizards debut

Dwight Howard’s first preseason with the Washington Wizards is apparently over before it started.

Howard needs an injection to alleviate pain in his back, and Washington coach Scott Brooks said that the eight-time All-Star has hopes of being back on the court by early next week.

If it takes that long, that means Howard won’t appear in any of Washington’s preseason games. And if he doesn’t play in the preseason, that would cast doubt on Howard being ready when Washington’s regular-season slate starts against Miami on Oct. 18.

“We’re going to take it day by day,” Brooks told reporters before Washington’s preseason game at New York on Monday night.

Howard, who turns 33 in December, has always been durable.

He missed a total of seven games in his first seven seasons, and played in 81 of 82 games with Charlotte last season. The one game he missed was while he was serving a suspension — and the Hornets wound up beating Memphis that night by 61 points anyway.

But the back problems have kept Howard from practicing or playing with the Wizards so far in training camp and the preseason.

For his career, Howard has averaged 17.4 points and 12.7 rebounds — averaging a double-double in each of his 14 seasons as well.

Monday’s games:

MAVERICKS 115, 76ERS 112

Luka Doncic scored 15 points, JJ Barea added 14 and Dallas topped Philadelphia 76ers to earn a split of the teams’ NBA China Games series.

Joel Embiid led all scorers with 29 points for Philadelphia.

MAVERICKS: Dallas’ Ding Yanyuhang scored one point and got one game ball. The Chinese rookie played the final 8:33, to the delight of the fans in Shenzhen, China. “We know how special this night is for Ding,” Barea said.

76ERS: Robert Covington scored 18 points for the 76ers, who got 10 points apiece from JJ Redick and Ben Simmons. Philadelphia committed 35 fouls for the second consecutive game.

UP NEXT: Philadelphia’s preseason ended at 3-1. Dallas (2-1) hosts Charlotte on Friday.

NETS 110, PISTONS 108, OT

Brooklyn’s Allen Crabbe left less than 3 minutes into the game with a sprained left ankle. X-rays were negative.

Reggie Bullock missed his first eight shots for Detroit, but got a layup — off an assist by Andre Drummond — to fall in the final seconds and force overtime. Drummond tried to send the game to potentially a second overtime, but missed from the left side of the lane with about 3 seconds left in overtime and lobbied unsuccessfully for a foul call.

NETS: D’Angelo Russell led the way with 25 points. Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen each scored 17.

PISTONS: Langston Galloway scored 24 points and Blake Griffin finished with 17, on a night in which Drummond had a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double — but missed 15 of his 21 shots.

UP NEXT: Brooklyn (1-1) plays Toronto on Wednesday in Montreal. Detroit (1-2) hosts Washington on Wednesday.

HORNETS 110, BULLS 104

Kemba Walker scored 20 points for Charlotte, which survived despite seeing what was a 23-point lead get trimmed to three with 1:11 remaining.

Jeremy Lamb scored 16 and Cody Zeller added 14 for the Hornets. Zach LaVine led Chicago with 26 points, going 9 for 15 from the field and 4 for 6 from 3-point range.

BULLS: Bobby Portis scored 17 points, Antonio Blakeney finished with 15 and Justin Holiday scored 10. … Jabari Parker grabbed 11 rebounds for the Bulls, all of them on the defensive end. Chicago got only four offensive rebounds all game.

HORNETS: Malik Monk scored 13 points, Marvin Williams added 12 and Nic Batum finished with 12 rebounds.

UP NEXT: Chicago (1-2) hosts Indiana on Wednesday. Charlotte (3-1) visits Dallas on Friday.

PACERS 111, CAVALIERS 102

Victor Oladipo scored 23 points for Indiana, which led by as many as 24 on its way to winning in Cleveland.

Domantas Sabonis finished with 16 points and 12 rebounds for the Pacers. Kyle Korver led the Cavaliers with 17 points in just under 20 minutes.

PACERS: Indiana led 59-39 at halftime. … Edmond Sumner and Tyreke Evans each scored 14 for Indiana, which is playing all four of its preseason games on the road. The Pacers don’t have a four-game regular-season road trip until the end of November,

CAVALIERS: Cleveland had not trailed for a single second in its first two preseason games. The no-deficit streak ended 22 seconds after tipoff on Monday. … John Holland scored 13 points but first-round pick Collin Sexton struggled — shooting 1 for 7 and finishing with three points.

UP NEXT: Indiana (2-1) visits Chicago on Wednesday. Cleveland (2-1) plays Detroit on Friday in East Lansing, Michigan.

HEAT 90, MAGIC 89

Rodney McGruder led Miami with 19 points, and a short jumper with 1:35 left closed the scoring.

Orlando had a chance to win it after grabbing a defensive rebound and calling time with 1.3 seconds remaining. Magic coach Steve Clifford put his starters back in and mapped out a play, but Nikola Vucevic’s lob for Aaron Gordon was knocked away by Miami’s Bam Adebayo and time expired.

MAGIC: Vucevic had 22 points and 14 rebounds for Orlando, which rallied from 19 points down and wound up reclaiming the lead in the fourth quarter. Jerlan Grant scored 17 points and Gordon had 12 for the Magic.

HEAT: Dwyane Wade made his last home preseason debut, scoring eight points. He’s expected to play in at least one of Miami’s two remaining exhibitions. … Goran Dragic scored 16 points and Hassan Whiteside added 13 rebounds and three blocked shots.

UP NEXT: Orlando (1-2) hosts Memphis on Wednesday. Miami (1-3) hosts New Orleans on Wednesday.

WIZARDS 110, KNICKS 98

Bradley Beal led Washington with 20 points, and the Wizards finished with seven players in double figures.

It was a rough night for New York’s starting frontcourt. Kevin Knox, Lance Thomas and Noah Vonleh were a combined 3 for 18, finishing with a total of six points between them.

WIZARDS: Jeff Green shot 7 for 10 and scored 16 points. John Wall finished with 14 points, nine assists and six rebounds in 27 minutes.

KNICKS: Tim Hardaway Jr. and Allonzo Trier each scored 18 for the Knicks, who lost for the first time in this preseason. … Enes Kanter was held out of the game.

UP NEXT: Washington (2-1) visits Detroit on Wednesday. New York (3-1) hosts Brooklyn on Friday.

KINGS 132, MACCABI HAIFA 100

Buddy Hield scored 22 points on 9-of-11 shooting, including 4 of 4 from 3-point range, to lead seven Sacramento players in double figures.

Justin Jackson made four 3-pointers and finished with 18 points, and Harry Giles III scored 16.

Josh Childress, who played eight seasons in the NBA, led Maccabi Haifa with 18 points.

KINGS: Kosta Koufos, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Iman Shumpert did not play. … Frank Mason scored 13 points with eight assists and five steals. … Willie Cauley-Stein had 13 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and three steals.

MACCABI HAIFA: Kennedy Meeks had 17 points, nine rebounds, four assists and two steals.

UP NEXT: Sacramento (2-2) plays host to Utah on Thursday.

SUNS 117, WARRIORS 109

Deandre Ayton and Ryan Anderson scored 18 points apiece for Phoenix.

Stephen Curry led Golden State with 23 points in 23 minutes. Kevin Durant added 12 points, five rebounds and five assists.

SUNS: The team announced earlier Monday that General Manager Ryan McDonough had been fired. … Trevor Ariza hit 4 of 8 from 3-point range and finished with 17 points.

WARRIORS: Coach Steve Kerr was ejected in the third quarter for arguing a foul called on Stephen Curry. Replays showed Kerr telling the referees, “I don’t want to be here anyway”. … Andre Igoudala, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston did not play.

UP NEXT: Golden State plays the Lakers at T-Mobile Arena is Las Vegas, and Phoenix wraps up preseason play at Portland, on Wednesday.

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jodyedgarus · 6 years

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The Most Promising Players In The NBA Draft According To My Computer

We usually don’t release our CARMELO NBA projections until after the NBA draft. But this year, in an effort to procrastinate from other modelling-related tasks,9 I finished them a little early. We’ll publish the complete set of CARMELO projections later this month, but with the draft scheduled for Thursday night, I wanted to share the system’s take on the best NCAA prospects.

Our methodology for CARMELO is pretty much the same as last year, with only minor tweaks. It works by identifying statistically comparable players — for instance, John Wall is currently similar to Detroit Pistons Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas and to Deron Williams. For NBA veterans, we use a database of player statistics since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976, and for rookies, we use a database of NCAA statistics since 2002, adjusted for pace and opponent strength, as provided to us by ESPN Stats & Information Group. The rookie projections also account for — indeed, heavily emphasize — where in the draft each player was selected. Because the 2018 draft hasn’t taken place yet, we can’t use that variable to evaluate this year’s prospects, so for now I’ve used scouting rankings for both current and historical players.10

As I said, the changes from last year’s model are pretty minor, but one of them is potentially relevant in the context of this year’s draft, which is heavy on big men, including traditional centers such as Arizona’s Deandre Ayton. As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has found, it’s become easier in recent seasons for teams to find once-desirable big men on the waiver wire or available for the minimum salary; the former All-Star center Roy Hibbert, who didn’t play at all in the NBA last year, is one perfect example. After evaluating the performance of players on minimum salaries over the past four years, we now use position-based replacement levels,11 which reflect that it takes a little bit more for big men to generate surplus value in the NBA than it does for guards and wings.

One last important warning: This list does not include projections for European players (so no Luka Doncic) or for other players who did not play NCAA basketball for some reason. Also, since Michael Porter Jr. played in only three NCAA games as a result of injury, we don’t project him on the basis of his NCAA statistics.12

At any rate, here goes: The top prospects as projected by CARMELO, non-Doncic, non-Porter edition. Players are ranked by their projected wins above replacement over their first seven NBA seasons:

‘Stats + Scouts’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft

Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr.

Player Scout Rank Age on 2/1/19 Pos. WAR THRU 2025 Top Comps 1 Deandre Ayton 1 20.5 C 24.6 Jahlil Okafor, Greg Oden, Anthony Davis 2 Marvin Bagley III 5 19.9 C 19.0 Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love, Derrick Favors 3 Jaren Jackson Jr. 4 19.4 C 18.6 Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors, Noah Vonleh 4 Mohamed Bamba 3 20.7 C 15.8 Nerlens Noel, Ben Simmons, Michael Beasley 5 Wendell Carter Jr. 7 19.8 C 14.9 Noah Vonleh, Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors 6 Trae Young 8 20.4 PG 14.3 Dennis Smith Jr., Brandon Knight, Mike Conley 7 Kevin Knox 9 19.5 PF 12.8 Tobias Harris, Thaddeus Young, Julius Randle 8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10 20.6 SG 11.9 DeMar DeRozan, Jamal Murray, Alec Burks 9 Collin Sexton 11 20.1 PG 11.8 Tyus Jones, Dennis Smith Jr., Malik Monk 10 Zhaire Smith 16 19.7 SF 11.5 Malik Beasley, Xavier Henry, Justise Winslow 11 Mikal Bridges 14 22.4 SF 10.8 Jimmy Butler, Nik Stauskas, John Jenkins 12 Kevin Huerter 20 20.4 SG 9.8 Jeremy Lamb, Alec Burks, Gary Harris 13 Miles Bridges 15 20.9 PF 8.6 TJ Warren, Ryan Anderson, Bobby Portis 14 Robert Williams 12 21.3 C 8.3 Cole Aldrich, Bobby Portis, Marreese Speights 15 Lonnie Walker IV 13 20.1 SG 7.2 Jrue Holiday, Austin Rivers, Avery Bradley 16 Troy Brown 18 19.5 SG 7.1 James Young, Archie Goodwin, Austin Rivers 17 Josh Okogie 25 20.4 SG 6.8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Harris, Jordan Adams 18 Jerome Robinson 17 21.9 PG 6.2 R.J. Hunter, Dominique Jones, Allen Crabbe 19 Aaron Holiday 22 22.3 PG 5.2 Demetrius Jackson, Reggie Jackson, Jimmer Fredette 20 Jalen Brunson 35 22.4 PG 4.7 John Jenkins, Michael Frazier II, Ty Lawson 21 Donte DiVincenzo 26 22.0 PG 4.5 Willie Warren, Tyler Dorsey, Doron Lamb 22 Gary Trent Jr. 39 20.0 SG 4.3 Rashad Vaughn, James Young, Javaris Crittenton 23 De’Anthony Melton 24 20.7 SG 4.1 Javaris Crittenton, Eric Bledsoe, Zach LaVine 24 Jacob Evans 30 21.6 SF 3.6 Dillon Brooks, Tim Hardaway Jr., Gerald Henderson 25 Grayson Allen 27 23.3 SG 3.6 Jimmer Fredette, Denzel Valentine, Nolan Smith 26 Moritz Wagner 36 21.8 C 3.4 Derrick Brown, Thomas Bryant, Marreese Speights 27 Khyri Thomas 31 22.7 SG 3.2 Jodie Meeks, Wayne Ellington, L.J. Peak 28 Landry Shamet 49 21.9 PG 3.1 Tyler Dorsey, Michael Frazier II, John Jenkins 29 Shake Milton 40 22.3 SG 3.0 Olivier Hanlan, Tyler Harvey, Allen Crabbe 30 Melvin Frazier 32 22.4 SF 2.2 Tony Snell, Dillon Brooks, Jordan Crawford 31 Chimezie Metu 45 21.9 C 2.2 Richaun Holmes, Justin Harper, Drew Gordon 32 Rawle Alkins 48 21.3 SG 2.2 Travis Leslie, Jared Cunningham, Aaron Harrison 33 Keita Bates-Diop 29 23.0 PF 2.0 Justin Harper, Quincy Pondexter, Trevor Booker 34 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 59 21.6 SG 1.9 L.J. Peak, Jared Cunningham, Andre Roberson 35 Bruce Brown Jr. 28 22.5 SG 1.9 Jamaal Franklin, Marcus Thornton, Will Barton 36 Malik Newman 47 21.9 SG 1.8 Jordan Crawford, Jared Cunningham, Edmond Sumner 37 Jevon Carter 34 23.4 PG 1.8 Demetri McCamey, Deonte Burton, Ben Uzoh 38 Omari Spellman 43 21.5 PF 1.7 Ben Bentil, Jarell Martin, Samardo Samuels 39 Devonte’ Graham 44 23.9 PG 1.6 Frank Mason III, Joe Young, Yogi Ferrell 40 Tony Carr 54 21.3 PG 1.6 Nick Calathes, Terrico White, Andrew Harrison 41 Ray Spalding 52 21.9 PF 1.6 Hollis Thompson, Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ashley 42 Hamidou Diallo 37 20.5 SG 1.5 Avery Bradley, Josh Selby, Kobi Simmons 43 Chandler Hutchison 33 22.8 SF 1.5 Glen Rice Jr., C.J. Leslie, Jermaine Taylor 44 Vince Edwards 65 22.8 PF 1.3 Solomon Hill, Matt Howard, Jake Layman 45 Trevon Duval 53 20.5 PG 1.2 Cory Joseph, Dejounte Murray, Avery Bradley 46 Allonzo Trier 62 23.0 SG 1.2 Tyler Harvey, James Blackmon Jr., Khalif Wyatt 47 Keenan Evans 72 22.4 PG 1.1 Marcus Denmon, Derrick Marks, Rasheed Sulaimon 48 Bonzie Colson 68 23.1 PF 1.0 Perry Ellis, Branden Dawson, Matt Howard 49 Justin Jackson 41 22.0 PF 1.0 Ben Bentil, Vince Hunter, Tony Mitchell 50 Kevin Hervey 46 22.6 SF 1.0 Draymond Green, C.J. Leslie, Akil Mitchell 51 Brandon McCoy 64 20.6 C 0.7 Greg Smith, Kosta Koufos, Jordan Williams 52 Dakota Mathias 75 23.6 SG 0.7 Dez Wells, Thomas Walkup, Ron Baker 53 Yante Maten 88 22.5 PF 0.7 Brandon Costner, Rick Jackson, Marqus Blakely 54 Gary Clark 57 24.2 PF 0.6 Arsalan Kazemi, Melvin Ejim, Jaron Blossomgame 55 Kostas Antetokounmpo 58 20.7 SF 0.4 Chris Walker, Grant Jerrett, Derrick Jones Jr. 56 Devon Hall 51 23.6 SG 0.4 Jermaine Taylor, Lamar Patterson, MarShon Brooks 57 Alize Johnson 61 22.8 PF 0.4 Malcolm Thomas, Eric Griffin, Khem Birch 58 Kenrich Williams 63 24.2 PF 0.3 Jaron Blossomgame, Michael Gbinije, Kris Joseph 59 DJ Hogg 60 22.4 PF 0.3 DeAndre Daniels, Cameron Moore, J.P. Tokoto 60 Isaac Haas 73 23.3 C 0.3 Dexter Pittman, Justin Hamilton, Trevor Thompson 61 Jarred Vanderbilt 56 19.8 SF 0.3 Grant Jerrett, Jereme Richmond, Ioannis Papapetrou 62 Theo Pinson 70 23.2 SG 0.2 Durrell Summers, Jajuan Johnson, Peter Jok 63 Doral Moore 86 22.0 C 0.2 Dexter Pittman, Chinemelu Elonu, Josh Harrellson 64 Jaylen Barford 92 23.0 SG 0.2 Dwayne Bacon, James Blackmon Jr., Sonny Weems 65 George King 71 25.0 SF 0.1 Elgin Cook, Jamel Artis, Andy Rautins 66 MiKyle McIntosh 81 24.5 PF -0.2 Herb Pope, Taylor Griffin, Robert Dozier

Show more rows

One thing you see is that CARMELO is extremely deferential to the scout rankings — more so than other systems that use similar data, such as Pelton’s system or the Stats & Info system. Both CARMELO and the scouts have Ayton as the No. 1 pick, for example. The order of the big men listed just after Ayton is slightly different — CARMELO prefers Duke’s Marvin Bagley III and Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr. to Texas’s Mohamed Bamba — but these differences are minor. As both an empirical and a philosophical matter, we think it’s hard to beat the consensus rankings of NBA scouts and franchises. NBA teams are smart these days: Many of them have projection systems that are at least as sophisticated as CARMELO, plus they have lots of other information that we can’t possibly account for. So if CARMELO disagrees with the consensus of NBA teams, we don’t necessarily want to take CARMELO’s side of the bet.

With that said, there are a few differences. CARMELO puts a lot of emphasis on a player’s age; it’s relevant, for instance, that Jackson is more than a full year younger than fellow freshman Bamba. The counterpoint to this is that older players can sometimes help a team now, even if they have less upside. For instance, Mikal Bridges, who played three seasons at Villanova, is one of just three players who project to have a positive WAR in 2018-19. (The others are Ayton and Bamba; Doncic would probably also qualify if we projected him.) And Duke senior Grayson Allen has the fifth-best projection for 2018-19 even though he rates as just the 25th-best long-term prospect.

We can get a better sense for where CARMELO differs from the scouts by taking the scouting rankings out of the system and running “pure stats” projections instead. (Note that these projections still account for a player’s height, weight, position and age, in addition to his NCAA statistics.) Again, we would not recommend that NBA teams draft players on the basis of the list, but it helps to reveal how CARMELO “thinks”:

‘Pure stats’ CARMELO projections for 2018 NBA draft

Not including European players or Michael Porter Jr.

Player Scout Rank Age on 2/1/19 Pos. WAR THRU 2025 Top Comps 1 Marvin Bagley III 5 19.9 C 15.0 Anthony Davis, Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love 2 Zhaire Smith 16 19.7 SF 14.2 Justise Winslow, Malik Beasley, Malik Monk 3 Jaren Jackson Jr. 4 19.4 C 12.5 Diamond Stone, Karl-Anthony Towns, Marquese Chriss 4 Wendell Carter Jr. 7 19.8 C 12.3 Derrick Favors, Diamond Stone, Greg Oden 5 Deandre Ayton 1 20.5 C 11.6 Jahlil Okafor, Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen 6 Kevin Huerter 20 20.4 SG 11.5 Alec Burks, Jeremy Lamb, Gary Harris 7 Kevin Knox 9 19.5 PF 11.5 James Young, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kevon Looney 8 Trae Young 8 20.4 PG 11.0 Dennis Smith Jr., Mike Conley, Brandon Knight 9 Collin Sexton 11 20.1 PG 11.0 Derrick Rose, De’Aaron Fox, Mike Conley 10 Gary Trent Jr. 39 20.0 SG 10.3 DeMar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, Andrew Wiggins 11 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10 20.6 SG 9.8 D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, John Wall 12 Troy Brown 18 19.5 SG 9.6 Rashad Vaughn, James Young, Thaddeus Young 13 Josh Okogie 25 20.4 SG 9.3 Gary Harris, Marcus Smart, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 14 Miles Bridges 15 20.9 PF 7.6 Caleb Swanigan, Ivan Rabb, Gordon Hayward 15 Mohamed Bamba 3 20.7 C 7.3 Meyers Leonard, JJ Hickson, Lauri Markkanen 16 Landry Shamet 49 21.9 PG 7.2 Tyler Dorsey, Luke Kennard, Doron Lamb 17 Lonnie Walker IV 13 20.1 SG 6.9 Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Russell Westbrook 18 Mikal Bridges 14 22.4 SF 6.7 Quincy Acy, Derrick Brown, John Jenkins 19 Jalen Brunson 35 22.4 PG 6.3 Ty Lawson, Demetrius Jackson, John Jenkins 20 De’Anthony Melton 24 20.7 SG 5.9 Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans 21 Robert Williams 12 21.3 C 5.9 Marreese Speights, Caleb Swanigan, Cole Aldrich 22 Moritz Wagner 36 21.8 C 5.5 Jakob Poeltl, Cole Aldrich, Derrick Brown 23 Brandon McCoy 64 20.6 C 5.5 Meyers Leonard, Brook Lopez, Kosta Koufos 24 Rawle Alkins 48 21.3 SG 5.3 Donovan Mitchell, Aaron Harrison, Elliot Williams 25 Donte DiVincenzo 26 22.0 PG 5.3 Tyler Dorsey, Jodie Meeks, Victor Oladipo 26 Trevon Duval 53 20.5 PG 5.2 Avery Bradley, Cory Joseph, Marquis Teague 27 Shake Milton 40 22.3 SG 5.0 Tyler Harvey, Olivier Hanlan, James Anderson 28 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 59 21.6 SG 4.9 L.J. Peak, Jared Cunningham, Wayne Ellington 29 Tony Carr 54 21.3 PG 4.9 Darius Morris, Malcolm Lee, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 30 Jerome Robinson 17 21.9 PG 4.8 Armon Johnson, Allen Crabbe, R.J. Hunter 31 Aaron Holiday 22 22.3 PG 4.8 Demetrius Jackson, Stephen Curry, Isaiah Canaan 32 Jacob Evans 30 21.6 SF 4.6 Andre Roberson, L.J. Peak, Jared Cunningham 33 Omari Spellman 43 21.5 PF 4.4 Anthony Bennett, Samardo Samuels, Ben Bentil 34 Chimezie Metu 45 21.9 C 4.4 Damian Jones, Richaun Holmes, Brandon Ashley 35 Jarred Vanderbilt 56 19.8 SF 4.2 Grant Jerrett, Jereme Richmond, Daequan Cook 36 Malik Newman 47 21.9 SG 4.2 Jordan Crawford, Jeff Teague, Jared Cunningham 37 Hamidou Diallo 37 20.5 SG 4.0 Kobi Simmons, Lance Stephenson, Avery Bradley 38 Khyri Thomas 31 22.7 SG 3.9 Khalif Wyatt, James Blackmon Jr., Jodie Meeks 39 Keenan Evans 72 22.4 PG 3.8 Tyshawn Taylor, Marcus Denmon, Derrick Marks 40 Ray Spalding 52 21.9 PF 3.8 Brandon Ashley, Marcus Morris, Ed Davis 41 Allonzo Trier 62 23.0 SG 3.6 James Blackmon Jr., Tyler Harvey, Khalif Wyatt 42 Doral Moore 86 22.0 C 3.5 Dexter Pittman, Byron Mullens, Mitch McGary 43 Vince Edwards 65 22.8 PF 3.4 Matt Howard, Solomon Hill, Trevor Booker 44 Kostas Antetokounmpo 58 20.7 SF 3.4 Chris Walker, Grant Jerrett, Skal Labissiere 45 Grayson Allen 27 23.3 SG 3.3 Buddy Hield, Pat Connaughton, Joe Harris 46 Yante Maten 88 22.5 PF 3.2 Rick Jackson, Brandon Costner, Joel Bolomboy 47 Bonzie Colson 68 23.1 PF 3.1 Matt Howard, Perry Ellis, Branden Dawson 48 Melvin Frazier 32 22.4 SF 2.9 Andre Roberson, K.J. McDaniels, Tony Snell 49 Dakota Mathias 75 23.6 SG 2.6 Dez Wells, Thomas Walkup, Marcus Denmon 50 Devonte’ Graham 44 23.9 PG 2.5 Kendall Williams, Aaron Craft, Yogi Ferrell 51 Justin Jackson 41 22.0 PF 2.4 Vince Hunter, Ben Bentil, Tony Mitchell 52 Bruce Brown Jr. 28 22.5 SG 2.4 Jamaal Franklin, Sonny Weems, Marcus Thornton 53 Jevon Carter 34 23.4 PG 2.1 Demetri McCamey, T.J. Williams, Keith Appling 54 Kevin Hervey 46 22.6 SF 2.0 Stanley Robinson, Rodney Williams, Draymond Green 55 Keita Bates-Diop 29 23.0 PF 2.0 Brandon Costner, Robert Carter Jr., Branden Dawson 56 Jaylen Barford 92 23.0 SG 2.0 Marcus Thornton, Jordan Crawford, Jodie Meeks 57 Chandler Hutchison 33 22.8 SF 1.9 Scotty Hopson, Landry Fields, Stanley Robinson 58 Alize Johnson 61 22.8 PF 1.7 Eric Griffin, Malcolm Thomas, Khem Birch 59 DJ Hogg 60 22.4 PF 1.6 Cameron Moore, John Henson, Joe Alexander 60 Gary Clark 57 24.2 PF 1.5 Arsalan Kazemi, Melvin Ejim, Elias Harris 61 Isaac Haas 73 23.3 C 1.4 Dexter Pittman, Brian Zoubek, Festus Ezeli 62 Theo Pinson 70 23.2 SG 1.3 Durrell Summers, Jajuan Johnson, Peter Jok 63 Kenrich Williams 63 24.2 PF 1.3 Jaron Blossomgame, Taj Gibson, Michael Gbinije 64 Devon Hall 51 23.6 SG 1.2 Peter Jok, Jermaine Taylor, Lamar Patterson 65 George King 71 25.0 SF 0.5 Jamel Artis, Elgin Cook, Gilbert Brown 66 MiKyle McIntosh 81 24.5 PF 0.2 Jackie Carmichael, Herb Pope, Lazar Hayward

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On a pure stats basis, Bagley rates as the top pick, somewhat ahead of Ayton. CARMELO sees the two players as being highly similar — they share many of the same comparables — but Bagley is half a year younger, and he posted his stats against tougher competition at Duke than Ayton did at Arizona. College statistics don’t do a good job of accounting for defense, and there are concerns about Bagley’s defense, but the same is true for Ayton. My point is not necessarily that teams should draft Bagley over Ayton — I’d defer to the scouts who say Ayton has more upside. But I do think it’s probably more of a crapshoot than most fans assume.

There’s a similar dynamic between the top point guards in the draft, Oklahoma’s Trae Young and Alabama’s Collin Sexton. The scouts have Young ranked slightly higher, but CARMELO sees them has very comparable players on the basis of their statistics. It’s true that Young scored more points per game than Sexton (27.4 versus 19.2), but that’s because the Sooners played at a faster pace, and Young played more minutes and used a larger share of his team’s possessions — all factors that aren’t particularly predictive of success at an NBA level.

CARMELO also sometimes like guys who played non-starring roles on good teams, such as Kentucky’s Kevin Knox and Duke’s Gary Trent Jr. These players don’t necessarily post hugely impressive raw statistics, in part because they have to share the ball with a lot of other talented players. But they look better when evaluated on an efficiency basis and adjusted for strength of competition.

Finally, there are a few true “computer picks” — guys who didn’t have great scouting pedigrees coming out of high school but who had impressive NCAA seasons. These include Texas Tech’s Zhaire Smith and Maryland’s Kevin Huerter, both of whom are reportedly rising on NBA teams’ draft boards.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-promising-players-in-the-nba-draft-according-to-my-computer/

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