#*1969 ooops 😂😂

[because-its-eurovision]

hey !! i was thinking about whether this year’s esc winner is already set in stone and the likelihood that käärijä could still manage to bag the win with a majority televote score …

i was feeling kind of nervous about it all but then i thought back to 2021 - (i haven’t watched it in a while so correct me if i’m wrong,) but did måneskin get that many high scores from the jury? I don’t think they got many 12 points there at least? (maybe just enough to get a rather average jury score i can’t remember)… they had some 12’s tho i think.

… obviously måneskin absolutely dominated the televote so i was wondering if there could be a similar situation in 2023 as to 2021, as 2021 had some hugely competitive acts and it was a nail biter up to the last minute ✨ (i’m tryna remain positive to manifest this win ahahah 💆🏻‍♀️)

This is one of those asks that lighted me up with need to answer with a thousand-word essay 😄 My take on why these cases are different and why Sweden is the winner Eurovision 2023 under the cut 👇

How to win with televote

Your arguments about Måneskin winning are correct. Italy got a set of 12 points from the Slovenian (neighbour), Croatian and Georgian juries but their average jury score was only 5,42. Both Italy 2021 and Ukraine 2022 won thanks to televote despite being only fourth in the juryvote. Here’s my explanation.

In 2021 the differences between jury favorites weren’t that big. Switzerland had 267 points, France behind them 248 points, Malta 208 points and Italy 206 points. Juries tend to go for artistic ballads but televote rarely shares that sentiment, so Switzerland’s “flop” was predictable. Malta is the biggest jury favorite in Eurovision history so their lower placing in televote wasn’t a surprise either. France did well in both components, deservedly so, and over all placed second behind Italy by only 25 points.

In 2022 Ukraine landslided the televote by getting exactly 200 points more than Moldova who came in second. They got an astounding average of 11,26 points from every country’s televote, and I don’t think we’re going to see a result like that for a while if ever. I believe that Ukraine would have won last year anyway, but understandably the war had a huge effect on televoters.

Sweden vs. Finland

Juries love Sweden. Or rather, Sweden has learnt to send entries that fit to the jury taste. These are the Swedish results from the last ten years: 2012: jury 1st, tele 1st 2013: jury 3rd, tele 18th 2014: jury 2nd, tele 3rd 2015: jury 1st, tele 3rd 2016: jury 9th, tele 6th 2017: jury 3rd, tele 8th 2018: jury 2nd, tele 23rd 2019: jury 2nd, tele 6th 2021: jury 17th, tele 11th           2022: jury 2nd, tele 4th

Eight times of ten, jury has loved Sweden more than televoters. Of those eight, they have placed Sweden in their top-3 seven times. Of those seven, they have won three times.

However, the juries' attitude towards Finland is very different. Since the juries came back in 2010, Finland has failed to make it to the final thanks to juries three times (2010, 2015, 2017) when the televote would have been enough for qualification. In comparison, here are our results from the last ten years.

2012: jury 12th, tele 12th in semi (NQ) 2013: jury 18th, tele 20th 2014 jury 7th, tele 17th 2015 jury 16th (last), tele 10th in semi (NQ) 2016 jury 12th, tele 15th in semi (NQ) 2017 jury 12th, tele 10th in semi (NQ) 2018 jury 24th, tele 21st (in semi jury 15th and tele 7th, thanks to televote 10th combined and qualified) 2019 jury 16th, tele 17th (last) in semi 2021 jury 11th, tele 4th (in semi jury 6th and tele 1st) 2022 jury 22nd, tele 16th

Why Sweden is the frontrunner

Just going into the contest, Sweden is almost guaranteed jury support. By looking at the results from previous years it is safe to say Loreen is going to be the jury winner. There is a slight possibility that we get a surprise jury winner like Austria in 2018 and North Macedonia in 2019. However, that would require there to be a clear jurybait song with great vocals, most likely a powerful ballad with innovative staging, and as far as I see, there are really no contenders for that this year. Who could surprise us? Switzerland, Spain, Estonia? Maybe Ukraine because their entry this year is so much slicker and more modern?

I'd also like to point out that in 2021 the jury winner placed sixth in the televote and in 2022 fifth. That is not going to happen in 2023. Loreen is a former Eurovision winner, fan favourite, charismatic, great singer and performer, the staging shows something never before seen on Eurovision stage (assuming they’ll bring the led screens with them to Liverpool) and Tattoo is already a huge hit so it’s not going to be too artistic or boring for the casual viewers. Sweden isn't even a country anyone would vote against for political reasons. I can’t see Loreen placing outside televote top-3. She can easily get over 300 points from the juries (average of 8,34).

Can we trust the odds?

There are years when neither the betting odds or fans have no clear idea which country is going to win, but those are in the minority. We’ve had some out-of-nowhere winners like Austria 2014 and Portugal 2017, who only begun to shine during the rehearsal week, but the way I see it that 2023 is going to be like 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2022 when the odds got the winner right weeks or months before the contest. As far as I can remember, the odds have always managed to predict a Nordic winner 😄

People have been pointing out to me that the odds might be wrong and Finland still has the chance to win despite being second in the odds. I do worry that the betting odds are failing us this year, but for a different reason. My concern is that thanks to the Käärijä hype that has been going on in Finland since January has made lot of Finns bet for their own country. In 2015 the night before the first semi final Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät was sixth in the odds to win the whole contest, only to end up in last place of their semi.

It is not often that Finland believes in their own chances in Eurovision, but when we do it sometimes makes us blind for what is realistic. Not everyone making Eurovision bets is familiar with how the juries usually vote and how that might effect the overall result. Not to mention that despite Finland being second in the odds behind Sweden, their winning chance is now 40% and ours only 15%.

Personal prediction

Please keep in mind that I’m not an expert of betting odds nor Eurovision, just a fan with a love for statistics 🙃

As for Finland, just qualifying let alone a placement in top-10 is of course an amazing result for us – hell, we’ve never even qualified more than twice in a row! My wish is that we could somehow crack into top-5 for the first time ever (2006 not taken into account). There is a possibility that we could win the televote (depending on running order) but juries are going leave Käärijä outside top-10, which means our placing is around 6th/7th in the overall results. Juries rarely care about silly upbeat songs especially if they are sung in native language and based on that I see Finland going the same route as Moldova 2022 (2nd in tele, 20th in juries, 7th combined) or Norway 2019 (1st in tele, 18th in jury, 6th combined).

Sweden wins. Loreen either wins both the juries and televote or placing in second/third in one or both of them. We might have a different jury winner (Spain? Switzerland?) or televote winner (Finland? Norway? Czechia?) but it doesn’t matter because they both flop in the other component (still placing in top-10 though).

You can quote me May 14th 2023 🙂

#I'd love the winner to be anyone but Sweden more than anything #Czechia has never won #Spain hasn't won since 1069 #*1969 ooops 😂😂 #Georgia and Armenia have never won #France hasn't won since 1977 #they came close in 1991 and lost to SWEDEN by a TIE-BREAKER ONLY :) #please feel free to comment who could be the dark horse this year in either tele or jury vote because I'd LOVE to see one! #eurovision #asks