#''it's gonna be the golden route game!'' like to begin with there was zero actual evidence of that

[dimiclaudeblaigan]

okay so like two things about this particular line.

one: i like the irony in claude telling someone to trust more.

two: HOWEVER, dimitri has literally absolutely no reason whatsoever in the name of yeehaw fuckity to not trust claude. i hate the way the game tries to absolutely force the things gw/sb claude does into ag when it doesn't even exist at all in ag. he never made a single hint of planning to just betray/harm the kingdom and this is literally at their first war meeting. not just that, but claude chose to go to faerghus himself and didn't ask them to go to leicester (which he specifically states being the one to choose to go to faerghus), so there wasn't anything indicating he might be up to something at all.

then we've got this stupid nugget:

each side lacks trust and is expecting foul play? the church expects foul play from the kingdom? from the alliance which has done nothing to them in this route, and that's bad enough... but the fucking kingdom too?

the kingdom and alliance watching for foul play even though they're allies and never had a history of being aggressive toward each other?

i know i've talked about it before but... i just hate how they tried to force this "claude is always scheming something terrible" plotline, even where it doesn't belong. then they also added in the dumb bit here about even the church not trusting the other armies, even though they've... literally been helping them, gratefully, this whole war. they also didn't have to fight but chose to out of gratitude for being sheltered.

suddenly after the timeskip they just... don't trust each other?

like i totally get just being in it to reclaim gm and go home and not really in it for someone else or anyone else, but the distrust is just an asspull to make the church seem BaD as usual.

claude just walked in and wasn't trusted. they also keep hammering it in right through the whole second half of the route with lots of kingdom allies (including playable ones) not trusting him. even if they relatively trust the alliance and the soldiers helping them that were integrated into their army, they specifically do not trust claude at all and are apprehensive about him.

dimitri agrees here if they can't be trusted, but he doesn't mention just personally distrusting them a whole lot. he agrees that they should be cautious if what the others say is true, but he also just shrugs it off as "they'll be enough to deal with the alliance if so". he seems unsure at first and kinda goes back and forth, but by the end he's the only character who faithfully believes that claude isn't just fucking around and leading them on (which literally, right to the very very very end, every single character except him is still very vocally doubting claude).

but like... why? there's... just... nothing to distrust him because of in this route. man literally exists and the game wants us to believe he's untrustworthy.

yeehaw wtf??? why would anything happen between the kingdom and alliance after the war? why would anything need to happen? even if you try to argue that claude is gonna try to uwu depose of the top church officials, if the church is watching the kingdom like hawks like dimitri is apparently aware of, why would the kingdom get involved? why would they care? clearly the church doesn't trust them all that much after all, or at least anymore since the timeskip for some unknown reason, and the kingdom has now, after this war, paid back any debt it owed the church.

so like, why would they suddenly rush to the church's aid and help them if the church doesn't trust them? if they were friendly/allied it would make sense if they still wanted to help, but if the church is expecting foul play from the kingdom, why would the kingdom even care what happens to the church? they could turn a blind eye and pretend they don't have the resources to aid them anymore and that their own territory is still busy recovering.

even if you argue what they discussed at the very beginning of the war, the church either A: didn't ask for aid in this second conflict, or B: even if they did, the above stands. i don't think there would be any riots or anything like that in those cases if the kingdom didn't help the church. it's one thing to help, but it's another to just fight at the back and call of another territory, which dimitri clearly expresses he won't do in gw because he puts the safety of his people first. no matter what his feelings are on the matter, he knows he's a king and that he has a responsibility to his people first and foremost, as would be expected of a king (to protect his own people first and foremost).

while i could see claude wanting to talk after the war and get things straight, and while i could see dimitri there as a mediator, there's just... literally no reason for bad blood after all this. even if they don't trust each other, there's just no reason - and that's aside from the fact that it's total bs that they all just don't trust each other.

lorenz just asks if shez has confidence in them. doesn't mention claude. shez though just... randomly is like oh yeah btw just not claude. totally unprompted.

lorenz distrusting claude has been part of his character since houses so his part of it is reasonable. normally i'd say it's really pushing things with claude not being trustworthy for someone to say they feel bad for shez/the kingdom army for the implication of having to deal with claude even as an ally, but the only reason i give this a pass is because it's an understandable and reasonable character who says it.

still though, it's like the game throws it in at every single possible opportunity for no reason at all. they don't give us any indication that claude is this big bad evil guy. he doesn't trust the church. like... that's it. he made that clear even in ag (even without the zaharas chapter), and that's just... it. the rest of this makes it seem like claude is going to just up and invade the kingdom after this war and try to unify fodlan (i.e. just go what edelgard's been doing this whole time).

it's just like... here, nobody trusts claude at all in this game just for simply existing. you don't even have to bring him up, because someone else will do it for you and shit talk him to remind you he's the biggest piece of shit the game can offer! meanwhile, we've got marianne who is concerned about edelgard (implication is her well being no less!) because the empire's army ain't doing so hot. poor indading aggressor! sure hope she's doing okay! fuck our leader though, he's the biggest steaming pile of bullshit garbage to ever exist (marianne didn't say that, but that's what the narrative is going for: poor edelgard, it's so sad that the invader is having it rough right now. anyway fuck claude he's literally as evil as tws).

i love ag but i'd say this is one of if not the worst hiccup in the writing. when it comes to faerghus itself and its characters, it's mostly fine and even great, but when it starts going into other territories/characters it ends up taking a nosedive in quality.

siiigh

#DCB Three Hopes Run #it's actually super ironic how ppl were lauding this after the trailers as #''it's gonna be the golden route game!'' like to begin with there was zero actual evidence of that #so idk why ppl just jumped to that conclusion based on snippets of in game events #but also like??? this game tore that apart like it was ripping up sensitive documents to be thrown out #literally straight up in every route went ''not a single territory trusts the other and they all secretly hate each other'' #which. again. totally fucking stupid. but also hilarious that they went so far out of the golden route zone #and yet it's the game everyone was SO SURE would be the golden route #(even after they'd said they'd never make a golden route lmao) #but yeah the writing is just trash every single time they involve like anything outside of in-territory fighting #like the empire turmoil was fine. the writing wasn't really bad with the whole ludwig versus edelgard thing #and the stuff that was like leicester against almyra was fine. nader was even written well for that! #but once it gets into mingling territories however they're mingling be it fighting or allies #it gets so muddy and stupid and it's like what was even the point of doing that in EVERY route #hell by logic caspar would've been a recruitable character bc he'd see the bullshit going on in the empire and be like #wait this is fucked up nah im outta here i ain't fighting for this shit #but he just... stays??? bc he wants to fight for... edelgard??? who he is CLEARLY AWARE is not in charge anymore??? #like if you were fighting for edelgard you would've fought against the ppl using her so... tws #even if you argue he didn't directly know it was thales and not ludwig at the helm caspar as he's supposed to be would never have #condoned what the empire was doing and would've left. if he thought it was ludwig in charge and hated what was going on he would've left #he's an idiot if he still thinks he's actually fighting /for/ edelgard at that point. his father even basically told him to get out of ther #but evidently once territories mingle in any way the writing just SKYDIVES out the window from the top floor of a skyscraper

[acitybythelightdivided2006]

on edelgard, and some of the various gotchas people use to discredit her (major spoilers for the whole game):

im gonna keep it real. edelgard was like, 98% in the moral right for her actions.

“she’s a fascist!”

hardly if at all. starting a war doesn’t make you a fascist in the slightest, and her ideology falls far closer to various forms of representative democracy than anything close to fascism. considering various CF endings do corroborate her goals working out, albeit long-term. even before democracy can set into the land, edelgard has the conscience to appoint commoners to positions of power, e.g. manuela becoming prime minister in her and ferdinand’s ending. a power-hungry tyrant probably isn’t going to step down immediately after feeling her work is done, because a tyrant’s only work is maintaining their strength above the people.

"she's an imperialist!”

sure, but her motivations AND end results do not reflect any past real-world imperialism. there is no historical parallel from her to imperialism that relates so much as there is from her to revolutionaries like napoleon (or even lenin), made even clearer by the knowledge that rhea and the church hold a cultural grip over the entire continent and the war is specifically against the church. almyra is never stated to have problems with the leicester alliance so much as they do fodlan as a whole - it just happens that theyre closest to the alliance rather than anyone else. this dichotomy between fodlan and almyra is further acknowledged by a personal problem written by cyril in part 2, where he specifies that people view the two continents separately rather than the alliance versus almyra separately. anyway, regardless of any historical parallels, this is not a retelling of actual history; you can take edelgard’s actions at face value for what they are.

“but this is a narrative written in japan, surely there are sympathies for japan’s imperialist history at play here?”

imperial japan was far from edelgard’s empire. edelgard fights for democracy (or meritocracy, if you prefer) and liberation. imperial japan fought for control and resources. also, do not assume a japanese writer discussing imperialism and war as a theme is automatically drawing parallels to hypothetical sympathies.

"her war is worse than any stagnation rhea was responsible for!"

the crest system suffocated the populace and tortured the nobility alike. any look at the noble students’ supports corroborate this. this stagnation lasted for 1000 years already, and even rhea agrees that her actions over the past millennia were inexcusable in silver snow. this is hardly mentioning the fact that there are various skirmishes and revolts before the war begins, such as lonato’s rebellion. five years of explicit unrest resulting in a golden age taking place (on every route, not just crimson flower) proves that rhea’s rule was stifling the continent.

“edelgard’s actions are overtly violent, disturb the peace, and kill innocent lives!”

while nobody would deny that yes, a warring faction is going to commit atrocities in said war (which is a trait shared by every faction in the game) edelgard nonetheless avoids needless conflict when it is available to do so and vastly prefers to keep civilians out of the picture in said conflicts. by far the best example of this is at the final chapter of crimson flower where she openly gives rhea, her primary enemy in the war, a chance to surrender without any violence required. fighting only begins when rhea sets flame to the city in her violent rage. this is after the fact that edelgard can also spare a vast amount of her former classmates, most notably claude and lysithea. the only reason she kills dimitri in CF outright is because she realizes that dimitri has wasted his life focused on nothing more than revenge, and realizes that he needs to be put out of his misery - the same reason she does not clue him into the truth of the tragedy of duscur, because she realizes that killing him after destroying his entire worldview is needless cruelty. speaking of dimitri, another example of this on a different route is the fact that she is not the aggressor against dimitri in azure moon - he is essentially a wrench in her plan to unify fodlan and establish her goals.

“she starts the war on a false narrative! her understanding of the nemesis/seiros conflict is not true!”

yes, edelgard’s understanding of the conflict is untrue. however, the facts of the matter are known only by rhea, and perhaps seteth and flayn as well. regardless of edelgard’s understanding of the nemesis/seiros conflict being incorrect, that is hardly the reason she starts the war. she starts the war specifically out of a desire to eradicate the corrupt crest system that ruined her and countless other peoples’ lives and gave the agarthans reason to experiment on her, her siblings, and other nobles like lysithea, and to establish the commoners of the continent as independent.

“the adrestian empire’s past actions are unquestionably evil, like their control of brigid as a vassal state!”

yeah, and? edelgard’s actions are not the actions of her predecessors, and she even goes out of her way to rectify these mistakes. on the brigid example, she outright tells petra, who is there as a political prisoner, that brigid can gain independence for itself so long as they assist her in the war effort, which, on CF and routes where petra is not recruited to another faction, seems to happen rather cooperatively.

“she allies herself with the agarthans to further her goals, and if there’s any villainous faction in three houses, it’s TWSITD!”

if edelgard has one fatal flaw, it’s that she’s determined to a fault and needs to get things done quickly lest she dies as a result of her twin crests. while yes, she does indeed ally herself with the agarthans, it is through extremely gritted teeth and with the intent to dispose of them immediately after she is done using their resources. the ending of crimson flower outright says she wages further war specifically on this terrorist group.

“her disdain for rhea is based on a hatred for the nabateans as a whole!”

there are very few nabateans that edelgard ever even knows, and only one of them she ever shows malice towards, that being rhea. both flayn and seteth are able to be spared and edelgard bears no ill will towards them for their race so much as she does their affiliation with the church, and even then, as mentioned, edelgard consistently avoids violence that is unnecessary. as mentioned before, she does attempt to spare rhea’s life at the end of crimson flower, but is met instead with a city on fire.

“she’s responsible for the tragedy of duscur!”

maybe if you listen to dimitri’s entirely false understanding of the situation early in azure moon. she was barely an adolescent and had quite literally zero political power. dimitri needed a scapegoat and realizes the truth (or at least becomes far closer to realizing the truth) with byleth’s influence in azure moon.

“she employed kostas and his gang to kill claude and dimitri in the beginning of the game!”

yeahhh i said 98% for a reason lol

#i scream #fire emblem #three houses #fe #fe3h #fe16 #feth #edelgard von hresvelg

[flauntpage]

The New Norm – Ten Takeaways from Cowboys 27, Eagles 20

I’d like to begin this morning with an Eagles haiku:

Offense was dog shit

Defense was also dog shit

Please claw out my eyes

What a diabolical performance. It was a travesty of a mockery of a sham – as Woody Allen once said – and a waste of three hours to boot. You’re gonna come out of the bye week, playing a division rival at home, and put THAT on display? You’re going to give us a first quarter interception, a dropped pick-six, a stuffed 4th down attempt, and a 3rd and 2 screen pass with the game on the line?

Those were just the atrocities I could think of off the top of my head. There were a lot more than that.

This was, by far, the worst loss of the Doug Pederson era, which I think I’ve written twice already this season. It was worse than the Carolina loss a few weeks ago, which was worse than the Tennessee loss a few weeks before that. We’ve watched the three worst losses of the Doug Pederson era in something like a six week period. I don’t even think I’ve enjoyed a single quarter of Eagles football this year, not as a neutral and jaded blogger OR a local kid who grew up a fan of the team. It’s just been disjointed, mediocre, inconsistent football all season long.

At halftime I called the 97.5 the Fanatic “Riled Up” line and made one long fart noise before hanging up, so we’ll see if they play that on Gargano’s show this afternoon.

For now, I’ll keep it relatively short, since the only real takeaway from Sunday night is that the Eagles are done. They’re cooked. This team is ravaged by injuries and they aren’t coming back to win the division. They’re gonna get annihilated by the Saints next weekend, so start drinking now.

1) Golden Tate Warriors

Quiet night for the new receiver, just 2 catches on 4 targets for 19 yards.

They got him his first reception on the first drive with a screen/bubble pass. He didn’t have another catch until the second half.

Tate also doubled as the Eagles’ punt returner for this game sans DeAndre Carter and Darren Sproles. He brought one back for 12 yards and fielded another that bounced off a Cowboy helmet and scared the shit out of probably everybody watching.

But here’s the rule:

Smart move. Even if he fumbles they get it back where it hit the Cowboys player. Wear a diaper next time.

— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) November 12, 2018

Yep. You can’t cough it up after it hits an opponent in that situation.

Wentz tried to hit Tate deep on his first pass of the second half, and there was no call on what I thought was defensive pass interference. They got him later in the drive on a hook and ladder, which was wild, but kind of a risky call in that situation I think. In hindsight, maybe you try that hook play with more room to operate on the field, since it seems like it was kind of smushed over there in a red zone situation.

2) offensive line and “running game”

Big V played right tackle with Lane Johnson inactive due to his MCL issue.

Good effort by him right here:

Josh Adams stuffed on 4th down pic.twitter.com/TBY3TU2dac

— The Bitter Birds (@AdrianFedkiw) November 12, 2018

Good job also by Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz, the ole’ “matador” blocking scheme.

DeMarcus Lawrence didn’t do a ton last night, so I guess Big V actually did relatively well for the rest of the game, though I counted at least two holds that weren’t called. Michael Bennett scored a better separation number over at the NFL’s NextGen stats page, and the Birds only allowed two sacks on the night.

One of the problems was that they finished with a 42 to 18 pass/run ratio, so the Eagles threw the ball on 70% of their plays last night. When you ask linemen to pass block over and over and over again, you just lose balance. It’s predictable and defenses start teeing off.

All linemen would prefer to run block rather than pass blocking, and when you can’t really establish much of anything on the ground (71 yards last night), then you’re just not keeping defenses honest enough, which puts a strain on the line. Take away the Josh Adams 29 yard run and the Eagles’ backs ran 13 times for 35 yards. That’s bad, and it helps explain why the Eagles rank 22nd out of 32 NFL teams in rushing yards per game. They are bottom half in just about every running stat this year.

3) The secondary

Captain Obvious: the injuries are just destroying them here.

Tre Sullivan started as safety with Avonte Maddox in the slot, then Corey Graham came in at safety on third down. They had Maddox back in deep safety in the base, with Rasul Douglas covering for the injured Jalen Mills. Douglas had a really poor game, just slow off the line and awful trying to plug holes and tackle as well. As a fellow Mountaineer, I was embarrassed and ashamed.

After Ronald Darby went down, Chandon Sullivan came in the game, leaving the Eagles with Malcolm Jenkins as the only true starter remaining on the field.

They’re down four guys in the secondary: Rodney McLeod, Darby, Mills, and Sidney Jones. Better hope they get healthy soon, or else the Saints and Rams are gonna do things to this defensive backfield that might not be legal.

Doug on the defense:

“I think one of the things we knew coming into this game was we were going to get a steady diet of the run game. Zeke is a big back, powerful back. Probably some of that a little bit. But I thought, overall, we didn’t tackle great. That’s one of the areas we got to get better at, too. Tackling in space, tackling in the box, and just making sure that we get the guys on the ground. There were too many yards after contact and things like that. So those are areas we have to concentrate on.”

Zeke Elliott carried the ball 19 times for 151 yards and a touchdown. He caught 6 passes for 36 yards and a score. He’s literally the only elite player on that Dallas offense, and he went off for almost 200 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns.

You had one job!

They didn’t get it done.

4) Penalties

Zero.

They committed zero penalties for zero yards.

And they lost.

Wait:

“Clean” pic.twitter.com/Oknmh4LtbU

— Colton Skeens (@Spidercolt) November 12, 2018

Eagles got some of that home cooking and didn’t do anything with it.

5) Zach Ertz

14 catches for 145 yards and two touchdowns.

He’s now 9th in the NFL in total receiving yards, pipping Travis Kelce as the top tight end on the list. Ertz has 75 catches on 100 targets this year and his numbers project like this:

75 receptions = 8.3 catches per game –> 132.8 catches over 16 games

100 targets = 11.1 targets per game –> 177.7 targets over 16 games

789 yards = 87.6 yards per game –> 1,402 yards over 16 games

5 touchdowns = 0.55 touchdowns per game –> 8.8 touchdowns over 16 games

Those are Pro Bowl numbers and extrapolate to Hall of Fame numbers if he keeps doing anything remotely similar over the next 5-7 years.

6) Peripherals

Ghastly stuff here:

lost time of possession battle, 33.22 to 26.38 minutes

-1 turnover margin (interception)

4-10 on third down (40%)

0-2 on fourth down (0%)

allowed Dallas to go 8-16 on third down (50%) and 1-1 on fourth down (fake punt)

lost 10 yards on two sacks

2-3 success rate in red zone

zero penalties

The third and fourth down numbers are just repugnant.

And that’s the first time the Eagles have lost the time of possession battle since I started making this a regular entry into the weekly column. Philly came into the game as the NFL’s best team in time of possession while Dallas was one of the worst. The shitty 1st quarter offense and the defense’s inability to get off the field consistently killed the TOP numbers in this game.

7) Josh Adams

Shrug. He’s just another guy.

Everyone is out here saying, “man I like Josh Adams, I need more of Josh Adams” when the reality is that the Eagles don’t have any above average or interesting running backs, which is why you default to thinking that he has some kind of incredible upside or value.

And I swear to God, if Doug runs Adams out of a sweep or toss one more time, I’m gonna lose it. The guy is 6’2″ and 225 pounds. You cannot run him sideways. Run him downhill, which they did on that “wham” scheme that broke him loose for 29 yards in a NORTH/SOUTH DIRECTION.

It’s true that they need to run the ball more, but Smallwood is just a dude, Adams is just a dude, and Corey Clement has been really disappointing this season.

8) Doug’s best call?

The 2nd quarter challenge seemed like it was more about giving his defense a breather rather than anything positional. They only really got a yard out of the reversal, which may have made Dallas think twice about running the ball, but it was more of a momentum stopper than anything related to field positioning.

At least I think that was the idea..

Was it?

9) Doug’s worst call?

Take your pick!

The very first series set the tone, with some crap play calling.

Of course people might argue about the decision not to kick the field goal early, but more important was the fact that it was a boring and predictable 4th down play call for Adams. Just sneak it with Wentz, right? You’ve had a ton of success doing that, but instead they tried to run behind Big V, Agholor, and Ertz.

And the 3rd and 2 screen pass in the fourth quarter was whatever. Just throw the ball past the sticks. Jason Kelce and Brandon Brooks gotta do a million times better on Leighton Vander Esch there, but again, throw the ball down the field.

On the ensuing 4th down play call, the one that Ertz caught one yard short of the marker, here’s what Doug said about that:

“It’s a route that’s going to get you the fourth down or any down really. I give credit to Dallas and to (Jeff) Heath. He came up and it was a contested catch. Zach did a great — ball was a little bit high, but he came down with the ball and we were just about a half yard short. So just a great play by them, and it was a play that I would call again. You’re putting it in Carson’s hands, you’re putting it in Zach’s hands and that’s what you want.”

Wouldn’t have been a problem if they didn’t lose yards on 3rd and 2. Clement was asked about that play after the game and said that if he could have it back, he would have tried to get the ball in the opposite hand so he could throw a stiff arm and shake Vander Esch for an extra pair of yards.

10) Boring broadcasting

I laughed when Al Michaels referred to Geno’s Steaks as “one of the city treasures.” I guess it was just the choice of words. You could say it’s a cultural landmark, for sure, but Philly city treasures are things like the Liberty Bell, Art Museum, and whatever Evil Genius currently has on tap. Of course we also got the Rocky music and all the assorted cliches in this broadcast as well. There’s more to Philadelphia than cheesesteaks and a fake boxer. God forbid they shoot some broll of the new Revolutionary War museum or Elfreth’s Alley or something else. It’s the same lazy stuff over and over again. It’s like showing TV footage of chili every time the Bengals play. There’s more to Cincy than chili, I think.

Also – what the hell was with the sky cam being used for almost the entirety of that third quarter Dallas drive? Goodness gracious, just show the normal angle please. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

I also rolled my eyes at Cris Collinsworth going over another completed catch 10 minutes after the play actually took place.

But maybe the worst part of the last 24 hours is that this guy gets the last laugh:

Biggest loser in the crowd of 70,000 has to be the guy wearing a Marion Barber jersey all these years later. pic.twitter.com/lc4wUypdtE

— Glen Macnow (@RealGlenMacnow) November 12, 2018

Happy Monday, the Eagles suck.

The post The New Norm – Ten Takeaways from Cowboys 27, Eagles 20 appeared first on Crossing Broad.

The New Norm – Ten Takeaways from Cowboys 27, Eagles 20 published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

[junker-town]

NFL Dad, Week 6: Sorry, Aaron Rodgers. Have some birthday cake

Can one overwhelmed dad pull off a toddler birthday party in the morning and still watch six and a half hours of RedZone? That depends: Do naps count as watching football?

My daughter turns three this week, so we hosted her birthday party before the games kicked off. It was a confetti-themed party. There was confetti inside the balloons, over-sized beach balls with colorful spots, sprinkles on the cake, and more sprinkles at the cookie-decorating station.

Not that a theme matters to my daughter. She wants two things out of a birthday party: pizza and cake. Everything else is window dressing.

ME: Look sweetie, all of your best friends in the world are right here just to be with you!

HER: [shrug]

ME: Should I go pick up the pizza?

HER: PIZZA! PIZZA! PIZZA!

That said, the cookie decoration station was a big hit, and it bought the adults a long stretch of time where the kids are stationary and mostly quiet. This was a REVELATION. Ever since my wife gave birth twice in 19 months, I haven’t spoken to another adult at a kid’s birthday party for longer than 45 seconds.

But with the kids entertaining themselves? I had no fewer than five pleasant conversations with other parents that ended like normal human interactions, and not with me sprinting toward a crying child. I know every parent says, “It goes so fast!” and “I miss those days!” but I’m more than happy to floor it past the first two years of birthday parties.

We can stop time now, at age three, while Aaron Rodgers has two intact collarbones.

EARLY GAMES, FIRST HALF

— My picks this week for Team OddsShark in the SuperContest are as follows:

Lions +5 at Saints

Packers -3 at Vikings

Cardinals +2.5 versus Bucs

Chiefs -4.5 versus Steelers

Raiders -3.5 versus Chargers

At one point a few weeks ago, I said I was going to include my picks every week, but that was before I learned I could write a column with a word count to rival Peter King’s. So when my picks have been bad, they’ve been edited out (or never written at all). And they’ve been REALLY bad: I’m sitting at 12 points (out of a maximum 25) through five weeks. Woof.

UPDATE: 1-4 on the day! This section is hereby retired forever.

— The birthday party ends at 12:30 Eastern, but it takes a while to clean up, pack up, walk home, and start putting the kids down for their naps. By the time I turn the TV, the Jets lead the Patriots 7-0, and Aaron Rodgers has left the game with an injury to his throwing shoulder. Yeesh, Friday the 13th is really making a full weekend of it, huh?

— I’m counting on Lions-Saints to be a fantasy bonanza. I have what feels like every wide receiver from these teams in one league or another, and the conditions are ideal (bad defenses, Superdome) for a million points. Golden Tate’s opening touchdown HAS to be a harbinger of what’s to come.

I've seen better tackling in a Pee Wee game LOL Saints http://pic.twitter.com/YHTtBpFt9I

— Isaac (@WorldofIsaac) October 15, 2017

The one wide receiver on these teams I DON’T have is Tedd Ginn, who immediately scores a touchdown on what appears to be a crossing route (if I’m wrong, it’s because I’m watching my kids, not All-22). I refuse to let Ted Ginn be redeemed in the Saints’ offense. I don’t care how open he gets behind the defense, the only people he’s burned with any consistency is fantasy owners.

The only people Ted Ginn burns with any consistency are fantasy owners.

— After the Vikings intercept Brett Hundley, Jerick McKinnon scores on a screen pass to give Minnesota a 7-0 lead. I have zero faith that a greenhorn backup can rally the Packers on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. This one’s over.

— Josh McCown is now 11-of-15 passing with two touchdowns. The Jets lead 14-0. Twitter reacts wildly, as if they expect the Patriots to NOT come back and win this game comfortably. Yes, this is a bad Pats defense, but also — and more importantly — this is the Jets. New England’s gonna win this one.

— My son has been teething non-stop for the last six weeks or so, just rows and rows of new teeth like a shark. Before I had kids, I heard enough from parents to know, “Oh, teething is bad,” but I never knew just WHY it was bad. “Their mouth hurts, bummer” is what I’d think, then I’d go back to thinking about movies or sex or eating at a restaurant.

But no! The mouth pain is just one small aspect of the teething experience. When teeth are tearing through little toddler gums, the child doesn’t eat as well. He doesn’t sleep as well. But that’s fine, eating and sleeping are only THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT PARTS of keeping a child happy.

On top of that, although there’s no medical evidence for causation, teething is often accompanied by fever, a runny nose, and diarrhea. Runny noses can lead to ear infections, and frequent diarrhea can lead to diaper rash. So, instead of your usual happy child, you’ve got a tired, hungry monster whose various holes are in constant pain.

And the worst part is that you don’t even know he’s teething. You just spend several days being frustrated at your kid: “Why won’t this little jerk eat? Why’s he so grumpy?” And then three days later you see a new tooth poking through, and it’s like, “Ohhhhhhhh, NOW I get it.” Teething blows.

— Tarik Cohen throws a touchdown to Zach Miller on a halfback toss! There is now a viable argument that Cohen is the fourth-best quarterback in Bears history.

Running Back Tossing TD Alert! @_Twenty8_ to @ZMiller86 for SIX! #DaBears http://pic.twitter.com/MlyxkpaUr9

— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2017

This is my all-time favorite play in Madden (NOTE: This is also why I was very bad at Madden).

— Like Golden Tate before him, Braxton Miller flips into end zone.

.@BraxtonMiller5 is flipping his way into the end zone! #Texans http://pic.twitter.com/huhWiO3YuZ

— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2017

I’m happy for Braxton. It has to be hard to make it in the NFL with a lacrosse name.

— KIRK COUSINS FREE AGENCY SUPER-CONTRACT WATCH: Cousins, playing his future suitors from Santa Clara, throws an interception, which is overturned on replay. He then throws ANOTHER pick by air-mailing a deep ball into double coverage.

There are 49ers fans who are actually excited about the prospect of signing Cousins. To these people I can only say: Have you considered a sanitarium? Fresh air, no wi-fi, comfy robes. We can help, but you need to want to get better.

— Stephen Gostkowski misses a 47-yarder, and it looks like the Pats will go into halftime down 14-7 or worse ... until Josh McCown throws an INT. A quick bomb to Brandin Cooks sets the Pats up inside the Jets’ 5-yard line, and a Rob Gronkowski touchdown ties the game before the half.

Well, at least the Jets had that first quarter.

EARLY GAMES, SECOND HALF

— Besides the excitement of the party, my wife and I balanced parenting with three and a half hours of party prep (squatting at picnic tables, a trip to Party City); schlepped a a full party’s worth of food, drink, and decorations to the park; and weathered my daughter’s first bee sting. GOOD NEWS: She’s not allergic to bee stings! Helluva day to find out, though.

All of this is to say: You’re goddamn right I took a nap when the games went to halftime.

— When I wake up, the Pats lead 24-14. Order has been restored to the world.

— But the Falcons are … losing? At home? To the DOLPHINS?!!? But they were up 17-0 at the half! What in God’s name is going on here? And why are the Falcons rushing to get plays off? WHOA THERE’S ONLY A MINUTE LEFT! That was a good nap!

I know Falcons fans must be stressed the hell out about this two-minute drill, but this moment made me chuckle:

LOL http://pic.twitter.com/wPBYFHUWAC

— Steve Noah (@Steve_OS) October 15, 2017

Taylor Gabriel is just a speedy little football doll!

Then, with the Falcons in range of a game-tying field goal, Reshad Jones picks off Matt Ryan. The throw hit Austin Hooper in the hands, but his bobble provided Jones with all the opportunity he needed to end the game.

Wow. The Falcons were 11.5-point favorites at home, and they lost to Jay Cutler. Gonna have to fumigate the whole stadium after that one.

— We can tell my daughter has woken up from her nap when we hear a full-voiced “Happy birthday to youuuuu” coming from her room.

— The Ravens trail 24-13 at home, and they’re kicking a 50-yard field goal with three minutes left. What a limp way to run up the white flag.

A few minutes later, RedZone cuts back to the Ravens, who have gotten a spectacular punt return for a touchdown!

This is CLUTCH! #RavensFlock http://pic.twitter.com/1v9j6L9kdY

— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2017

ALL PART OF JOHN HARBAUGH’S PLAN. You have to get the ball out of Joe Flacco’s hands and let the defense and special teams take over (The only other Ravens touchdown today came from a kickoff return).

The Ravens convert the two-point attempt to tie the game, and the Bears have 1:30 to take the lead back. With the game on the line, Mitchell Trubisky leads ... a three-and-out. Once again, we get an extra period of ham-fisted ding-dongs flailing at each other instead of sending them home with the tie they deserve. BAN OVERTIME.

— As the Packers lose in Minnesota, the news gets even worse: Aaron Rodgers has broken his right collarbone, just like my daughter earlier this season. She healed completely in four weeks, but Rodgers, being a slightly lesser athlete, may be done for the season. We go now to race for the NFC North division title:

PANDEMONIUM

— Every week I struggle to demarcate the endings of early games with the beginnings of late ones, so they get their own section this week. We’re gonna let this football estuary do its thing, trusting that time will separate the saltwater from the fresh.

— As my son wakes up from his nap, a Lions punt return for a touchdown cuts the Saints’ lead to 45-31. There are still 11 minutes left; this could be a game.

— In the span of about a minute, RedZone shows the following: The Rams returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown; Adrian Peterson’s first touchdown for the Cardinals; Leonard Fournette responding to the Rams’ score with a 75-yarder to the house; and the 49ers getting a late touchdown to put some heat on Washington. Scott Hanson is losing his mind.

— A’Shawn Robinson intercepts Drew Brees at goal line and walks it in for an easy touchdown. It’s now 45-38 with more than six minutes to play. I am desperate for the Lions to cover.

The girl can freehand a circle that rivals Giotto’s but still hasn’t learned to jump properly.

— My wife leaves with to walk our dog, taking our son in the stroller with her. My daughter stays at her kid-sized IKEA table, focused on drawing. She would draw or paint for five hours every day if we didn’t force her get up and attempt to develop gross motor skills. The girl can freehand a circle that rivals Giotto’s but still hasn’t learned to jump properly. We have some work to do.

— The Bears win! It was a field goal or something, I was putting some frozen chicken nuggets into the oven. There are two kind of frozen nuggs: pre-cooked, which take about 15 minutes to bake, and uncooked, which take 25-30 minutes. The uncooked ones (which is what we’re making today) ultimately taste better, but 25-30 minutes is a LONG time for kids. You really need to be ahead of the hunger curve to make these.

— In Jacksonville, it’s Jags 14, Rams 10 barely 8 minutes into the game. I’m gonna need this game to come down off PCP.

— The Lions have a disastrous muffed punt that nearly goes for a safety. Instead, they start a drive at their own one-yard line, and Matt Stafford promptly gets picked by Cam Robinson for the insta-six. It looks nearly identical to the play that brought them within a score. Now it’s 52-38, and while the score isn’t THAT surprising, these teams combining for FOUR defensive touchdowns certainly is.

In consecutive games, the Saints defense has produced a shutout and scored three touchdowns. I blame this on global warming.

LATE GAMES, FIRST HALF

— With the early games finally done, I’d like to celebrate the rarest of RedZone occasions: A good slate of late games! Chargers-Raiders is a great rivalry game despite the two teams’ records, Steelers-Chiefs is a battle of AFC heavyweights, and Rams-Jaguars is high on bath salts and running loose through the swamp. The lone clunker looks to be Bucs-Cardinals, where the Cardinals are already up 21-0. Larry Fitzgerald is doing that thing where he’s one of the greatest receivers who ever lived.

— My daughter runs into the room wearing a pink cape. She eats a tortilla chip that my son discarded on the couch. “I’m a superhero!” she says.

“What’s your superhero name?” I ask.

“HMMMMM.” She has obviously not done the groundwork on her origin story.

“Are you the Pink Crusader?”

“Yeah!” She runs out of the room, then runs back in. “I’m a superhero!”

“What’s your superhero name?” I ask again.

She yells, “The Pink Crusader!” Again, she runs out of the room.

She runs back in and stops in front of me. She casually leans an arm on the couch and says, “I’m the Pink Crusader.”

— After a Steelers safety and a Chiefs field goal make a baseball score, the Steelers score the first TD of the game by giving Kanas City an overwhelming dose of Peak Le’Veon Bell. The entire drive was Bell gently picking his way through traffic with his trademark hesitation-acceleration.

Now that I think about it, the late slate is bursting with my favorite running backs to watch — not just Bell, but Melvin Gordon, Marshawn Lynch, Leonard Fournette, and Todd Gurley. And while every news report from the last three years suggests that Adrian Peterson is an unrepentant egomaniacal shithead, his resurgence for the Cardinals adds to the overall effect (I’d still prefer a healthy David Johnson, though).

Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t even the best Fitz in this game.

— Jameis Winston is doubtful to return with a shoulder injury. RYAN FITZPATRICK CLAIMS ANOTHER SCALP. Fitzmagic takes his first snap down 24-0 on the road in a game where he’s not even the best Fitz. My expectations are sufficiently tempered.

Soon enough, Fitzpatrick leads the Bucs on a respectable drive. On second-and-goal, he does one of his trademark moves: giving up on a play too early, running for it, and diving headfirst into defenders. On third-and-goal, well, let’s just call this unorthodox and leave it at that.

I got you Bill http://pic.twitter.com/yTkI0rtkQQ

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) October 15, 2017

And on fourth down, Patrick Peterson fights through a pick to break up a slant to Mike Evans. Still no score for the Bucs.

— I’m starving. I head to the kitchen to grab a slice of leftover pizza, then absentmindedly head back to the TV. Rookie mistake. My kids are in the middle of their non-pizza dinner, and they’ve witnessed the superior option.

“I want pizza! I want pizza!” my daughter says, and my poor wife has to explain that she already had pizza at her party today, and will have pizza again on her actual birthday this week. “You’re right, Mommy. That’s enough pizza for one week,” is not what my daughter says. It is the last thing any child would ever say.

— The Rams score on a blocked punt, their second special teams touchdown of the half, to head into the locker room up 24-14. Jags DC Todd Walsh DEFINITELY hates the other coordinators, right?

LATE GAMES, SECOND HALF

— Fitzpatrick’s first throw of the second half is an interception, and the Cardinals respond with a 4-play touchdown drive. Carson Palmer’s touchdown pass to John Brown is so hilariously underthrown that it fakes the defender out. The cornerback foolishly ran into the end zone as Brown tracked back to catch the ball floating down at the two-yard line.

— Bath time. My wife puts both kids in the bath, but when my son is done I leave the TV to help with my daughter. She says, “I’m the Little Mermaid!” (shakes fist) DISNEEEEYYYY!

“Well, the Little Mermaid has beautiful hair because she washes it all the time. We should probably shampoo your hair so it’s like hers,” I say, and she assents faster than she ever has to a hair-washing. Although now that I think about it, mermaid hair would have to be distinctly different from human hair to not be completely damaged by constant submersion in saltwater. The lies we tell our children.

When I finish washing her hair, she lays back in the tub to rinse, and I hold the back of her head to massage the shampoo out. Ringed by remnants of bubbles, her face has the beatific look of the precogs from Minority Report, and she makes up a song about a bear, singing it under her breath, so lightly I can’t follow whatever plot there is. It is a peaceful, unscripted moment that is filled with the kind of awe and love usually reserved for cathedrals. Best part of my day.

— After I dry her off and put her in pajamas, I come back to a virtually unchanged landscape of football: The Jaguars, Steelers, and Raiders are still holding on to single-digit leads, and the Bucs are still getting pantsed, though they ARE finally on the board.

— The Chiefs offense, humbled by the Pittsburgh defense most of the day, pieces together a drive by throwing to Kareem Hunt. But on 4th and 2 inside the Steelers’ five-yard line, Andy Reid, trailing 12-3, chooses to go for it instead of kicking the field goal. The pass is nearly picked off, and the Steelers get the ball.

Now, I am Mr. Go-For-It, a believer in advanced analytics and a member of the Cult of Barnwell. I would love to celebrate Reid’s boldness (process over outcome!), but I’m just not sure the risk was worth it.

— Here now is the Bortlest pair of plays possible: On second down, Blake Bortles is sacked and fumbles, but Jags are able to recover the ball. Then, on 3rd and 14, Bortles sails a pass over a wide receiver (who is well short of the sticks); the ball bounces off the receivers’ outstretched fingertips and into the hands of a defensive back for an interception. It’s all there in two plays: poor pocket awareness, bad decision-making, and costly inaccuracy.

I know the “They could have Colin Kaepernick on their team!” refrain is growing old, but for me it’s growing old because it’s EXHAUSTING to think about the success that mediocre teams could enjoy if they cared more about winning than not signing a guy whose activism offends the NFL’s ruling class.

— My wife is shrieking with laughter as my son blows raspberries on her legs. He’s been a relentless pain in the butt in the final hour before bed during this teething epoch, so I’m really only writing this so there’s some historical record of him being a sweet, funny kid.

— One of the Chiefs’s speedy playmakers finally steps up. Alex Smith scrambles and finds De’Anthony Thomas open on the left sideline, and the former Duck makes tacklers miss in space before flipping into the end zone. That’s the third one today!

Alex Smith extends the play... And @DATBLACKMOMBA13 takes care of business. 57-yard @Chiefs TOUCHDOWN! #ChiefsKingdom http://pic.twitter.com/lVmaGuCdJe

— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2017

MANDATORY NOTE: This touchdown would have given the Chiefs the lead if they’d just kicked the dang field goal.

— Holy bananapants, this Antonio Brown touchdown on third-and-two:

Already the catch of the year from Antonio Brown @btsteelcurtain http://pic.twitter.com/tXDNfVrr06

— Clay Wendler (@ClayWendler) October 15, 2017

Your move, De’Anthony Thomas and/or Tyreek Hill. No? No equally jaw-dropping game-breaker? Very well, then: Steelers win.

— I put my kids to bed. Their hair smells like dreams.

— The Bucs are scoring a bunch of points, but it’s too little, far too late. I’m not going to legitimize this alleged comeback with details.

— The Raiders run a hook-and-lateral in their own territory on third-and-12 up two points. It doesn’t go horrifically, but it DOES fall short of the first down. The Raiders punt, back the Chargers up, then allow a game-winning field goal drive.

— As the games wrap up, my wife asks, “Why are we watching the NFL if Aaron Rodgers, J.J. Watt, and Odell Beckham aren’t in it?” It’s a great point, but also: WATCH IT, LADY. THIS COLUMN FEEDS OUR FAMILY.

[junker-town]

NFL urgency index: Which teams are in 'win now' mode for 2017?

The Patriots and Jaguars made big moves this offseason, but their levels of urgency are for different reasons.

The last time the Jacksonville Jaguars had a winning season, George W. Bush was the President of the United States. So Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell’s comment on Tuesday that the team is ready to start winning feels long overdue.

"Leonard [Fournette]'s a guy that we've penciled in — in terms of a guy that can come in and make an immediate impact," Caldwell told SiriusXM Radio. "We are kind of in a win-now mode, as we should be, and Leonard is a guy that can come in and hopefully make the biggest difference here."

Well, yeah.

Caldwell was hired in 2013, so he can’t be blamed for the Jaguars’ five years outside the playoffs that resulted in the firings of head coaches Jack Del Rio and Mike Mularkey. But Caldwell has been around for four seasons of futility — a combined 15-49 record — and still managed to survive the tenure of Gus Bradley.

No team has dumped more money into free agency than Jacksonville, and if the rebuilding effort doesn’t finally yield some results in 2017, Caldwell will likely be fired and more changes could follow.

If ever there was a time for urgency in Jacksonville, now would be the time.

Of the six teams that finished with five wins or fewer in 2016, the Jaguars certainly have the fewest excuses. If there’s any reason why it’s hard to believe in Jacksonville, it’s that fourth-year quarterback Blake Bortles hasn’t proved himself capable of leading a winner. But that hardly qualifies as a real excuse.

There are teams with more legitimate hurdles that may be able to afford a little more patience. But the Jaguars aren’t the only ones in win-now mode.

For teams with a quarterback approaching retirement or coaches and/or executives in danger of getting fired, now is the time to put together some wins and make a run:

Urgent: The ‘Our quarterbacks are getting old’ scale

For a few teams, the need for wins is because their Super Bowl-capable quarterback isn’t going to be able to lead them to glory for much longer. Not every team gets lucky with a Dak Prescott to take over.

New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees finished his 16th season in 2016 and he did a dang good job, like always. He led the NFL in pass completions, attempts, and yards, and finished with a passer rating over 100 for the sixth time in his career.

The 38-year-old quarterback hasn’t shown signs of slowing, but that’s usually about the age when things can drop off in a hurry like they did for Peyton Manning. Brees hasn’t had a clean bill of health, either, with a shoulder injury ending his time with the San Diego Chargers in 2005 and a plantar fascia tear in 2015.

At some point Brees is going to slow down, and the Saints’ options for the future are Chase Daniel and Garrett Grayson. Trying to make a Super Bowl run before they’re forced to look for alternatives has to be in mind.

New England Patriots

Like Brees, Tom Brady hasn’t shown signs the end is near. But like Brees, Brady is probably close to the end, anyway.

He’ll be 40 before the 2017 season begins, and even if Brady told Robert Kraft that he wants to play for six or seven more years, that’s probably not realistic.

The Patriots seem to be aware of that too, and are making every effort to put winning pieces in place, even if it means trading away nearly the entire 2017 draft class to acquire veterans like Brandin Cooks, Kony Ealy, and Dwayne Allen.

“Well, start with the fact that they certainly got a good player who’s a very good fit for their offense in Brandin Cooks,” an AFC executive told MMQB. “But the second part is that, with Brady, there’s a short-term window. So trying to capitalize on that has perhaps an influence on all this. And if that works—and you get back to the Super Bowl — it’s all worth it.”

The Patriots already weren’t having much trouble blowing through teams en route to Super Bowls. New England dialing up the intensity for a final push with Brady could be a scary reality for the rest of the NFL.

Arizona Cardinals

Both Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald considered retirement before announcing they’d return for the 2017 season. And that means the Cardinals could be in for a bit of rebuilding effort soon.

“We’ll certainly be aggressive and keep our foot on the gas pedal, try to keep pushing this thing in the right direction,” Cardinals general manager Steve Keim said in February, via AZCardinals.com. “There’s no doubt we took a step back last year. We’ve got to pick up the pieces and make some good decisions this offseason.”

But despite talking about being aggressive, the Cardinals didn’t draft a quarterback, leaving the team with Drew Stanton, Zac Dysert, and undrafted free agent Trevor Knight behind Palmer. The biggest moves the team made in free agency were the signings of Karlos Dansby, Antoine Bethea, and Jarvis Jones.

If those additions don’t help the team win games in 2017, Arizona could be in for a slow climb back to the top.

Pittsburgh Steelers

At age 35, Ben Roethlisberger would seem to be much further from retirement than Brees, Brady, or Palmer, but he apparently spent the beginning of the 2017 offseason really considering it.

“I’ve got to take it year by year at this point,” Roethlisberger told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “I’m never going to look past any year because I want to give everything I have to that year. I’m not worried about next year. I have to win now. I think we can. I believe we have just about everybody back. I want to see what we look like as a team that’s a year better.”

He’s injured on a seemingly annual basis, even if most of the time he “walks his big ass out” onto the field on Sundays to play through it.

But the fact that Roethlisberger has even considered hanging up his cleats means the Steelers better push for another Super Bowl run soon, before it’s time to start fresh with Landry Jones, Joshua Dobbs, or some other young quarterback.

Patient: Young quarterbacks allow teams to wait

It’s hard to dial the expectations too high for teams with rookies or second-year quarterbacks under center. A disappointing start to a passer’s career can still result in a firing — like it did with Jeff Fisher in 2016 when Jared Goff was forced into action but struggled on the field — but there’s rarely a real sense of urgency to win with a rookie at quarterback.

Strong play from Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz during the 2016 season tore down some of the patience afforded to young quarterbacks. But the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears, and Cleveland Browns can all enter the 2017 season without much pressure to expect greatness right away from their young passers.

The Houston Texans may be the exception for the 2017 season, trading away a future first-round pick to get Deshaun Watson — about as battle-tested of a quarterback as college football has ever produced. With an elite defense already in place, the Texans are expecting Watson to make a Prescott-esque impact as a rookie and take the team to another level.

Even with Brock Osweiler struggling his way to 15 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and an eventual spot on the bench, the Texans still made it to the divisional round of the playoffs with him under center. Getting a competent quarterback would seem to be the missing piece for Houston.

Urgent: The ‘We’re gonna get fired’ scale

It can be tough to gauge who’s really on the hot seat before a season. But for coaches and executives who have slogged through disappointing results for a few years, sometimes putting a winning squad on the field can be the only job saver. This is how the Jaguars fall into the “win-now mode” category.

Detroit Lions

Under Jim Caldwell, the Lions have a 27-21 record with two trips to the playoffs. That impressive mark has yielded zero playoff victories and zero NFC North titles. The team has finished just below the league average in total offense and total defense in each of the last two seasons.

Overall, they’ve been underachievers.

Matthew Stafford has been relatively consistent over his career and posted his sixth consecutive season with at least 4,000 yards and 20 touchdown passes. But even his record-breaking amount of fourth-quarter comebacks in 2016 wasn’t enough to get the Lions over the hump.

In the offseason, Detroit went after T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner — two of the most expensive offensive linemen on the market — and filled up the defensive depth chart with plenty of signings and draft picks.

If the team struggles to do much more than hover around .500 again, it could mean the end of the road for Caldwell.

Cincinnati Bengals

Marvin Lewis is already the golden standard for doing enough to keep a job but not enough to actually make anyone happy.

In 14 seasons in Cincinnati, he hasn’t led the team to a single postseason victory. Only Jim Mora has more career games under his belt without a playoff win, and Lewis is set to pass him during the 2017 season. Mora got fired by the Saints after 11 seasons before coaching four more with the Colts, but Lewis has stuck with the Bengals his entire tenure.

The last time the Bengals won a playoff game was January 1991. The 26 seasons without a victory in the postseason is the longest active streak in the NFL.

But the Bengals have been a relatively consistent contender during the Lewis era. Falling to 6-9-1 during the 2016 season puts Lewis on thin ice, though. The team is retooled offensively with John Ross and Joe Mixon, so another disappointing season in 2017 could be the final straw.

New York Jets

The Mike Maccagnan/Todd Bowles era in New York started with an impressive 10-6 season and then lurched in the other direction with a 5-11 mark in 2016. The team was bad on offense and bad on defense, but both Maccagnan and Bowles kept their jobs.

New York threw a Band-Aid on its quarterback problems by signing Josh McCown, but the team may need more than McCown and a pair of rookie safeties to turn things around.

The Jets selected Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye with their first two picks of the 2017 NFL draft, raising questions about where Calvin Pryor fits in the New York secondary and ending Marcus Gilchrist’s tenure with the team. Continuing to add young defensive talent is a good thing, but the team doesn’t look much better off in 2017 after the additions.

The good news for the Jets brass is that the bar is pretty low. It won’t take too much to improve beyond 5-11 and show that the ship has been righted. But if the team struggles to approach .500 again, it could mean another big transition for the Jets.

Patient: Job security takes the pressure off

San Francisco 49ers CEO Jed York promised he learned his lesson and will give John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan time to rebuild the team. After parting ways with Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers gave one year each to Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly — but with general manager Trent Baalke out, San Francisco is finally starting fresh.

There isn’t much of a quarterback situation to be excited about — the team signed Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley before drafting C.J. Beathard. The 49ers appear far from being a winner, but it would be shocking if Lynch or Shanahan lost their job after the 2017 season.

Even a poor showing in 2018 may not be enough to end their time in San Francisco.

That kind of patience was afforded to Gus Bradley and Dave Caldwell in Jacksonville to unsuccessful results. It worked wonders for the Oakland Raiders, though, where Reggie McKenzie endured 11 wins in his first three seasons as general manager while he patiently pieced together one of the best rosters in the NFL.