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Predictable Insights: Trump’s Far-Reaching Impact on the Now and Beyond

Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets. Each edition includes an update on the politics driving the week that was as well as highlights from PredictIt’s market analysts.

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. Former President Donald Trump’s Tuesday night announcement (and formal filing) for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is not surprising — mostly since he teased it through the final weeks of the midterm elections — but its impact will be far-reaching.

This week we’re taking a look at how Trump’s presence in the primaries affected Republican results and how his announcement could impact not only the next two years of politics, but more immediately, the Dec. 6 US Senate runoff election in Georgia and House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) bid for the speakership.

And if you’ve missed it, PredictIt has been in the news a lot lately. Be sure to check out our ICYMI section!

*Market prices updated as of 8 a.m. EST on Friday, Nov. 18.

This Week in the Markets

Former President Donald Trump speaking at the “Rally to Protect Our Elections” in Phoenix, Arizona. Photos: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Trump is Back At It

Almost two years before voters will cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump formally stepped back onto the political stage as a candidate for the Republican nomination for US president for a third time. The former president had hoped to launch his 2024 campaign in the aftermath of resounding GOP midterm victories and had been teasing his announcement from a few weeks before final votes were cast. Instead, he pushed ahead in the aftermath of deep losses for his party, especially among his hand-picked candidates who beat out potentially more electable Republicans in the primaries.

Trump, who has played an outsized role in the midterms after backing more than 300 candidates, is now the center of the disagreement between factions of Republicans over the direction of the party and his role within it. There is plenty of blame being thrown around for the GOP’s dispiriting performance, but in many ways the timing of his announcement couldn’t be worse.

The Washington Post Graphic: The earliest announcement in recent presidential contests came from then-Rep. John Delaney (D-MD), who declared a run more than three years before the 2020 election and only six months into Trump’s four-year term.

“I thought the timing was off. I mean, for many of us, we’re just still trying to figure out – we still have races that aren’t declared yet,” said Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ), whose razor-thin victory was called only Monday. “I thought that as a bit inappropriate.”

Trump made his announcement in a lengthy live speech given Tuesday night at his Mar-a-Lago estate, before all the final US House races had been called, and with a US Senate seat still up for grabs in Georgia. Even some in Trump’s inner circle urged him to delay an announcement until after the Dec. 6 runoff election, but Trump declined to wait, according to reports. Not only that, but he teased the announcement days before the midterm elections, which could have suppressed some moderate Republican and independent voters who are extremely wary of the former president, to say the least.

The Washington Post Graphic: “Voters across the country shifted toward Republicans in the midterm elections — veering further right in areas won by former president Donald Trump and also tacking rightward in nearly all districts won by President Biden. House Republicans, however, picked up only a small number of seats.”

As it relates to the Georgia Senate race, there’s potential the effect of the early announcement will be to depress turnout of the very voters that Republican Herschel Walker desperately needs to win over to beat Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA). Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) easily won re-election last week over his Democrat challenger, Stacey Abrams, by earning 200,000 more votes than Walker — mainly among moderates and independents who question Walker’s qualifications and ties to Trump.

In the general election, Walker trailed Warnock by about 35,000 votes out of almost four million cast, but in Georgia a candidate must cross the 50% support threshold to win an election outright, which neither candidate was able to achieve. Republicans believe they have a path to victory with Kemp’s supporters, but the challenge for both parties will be getting voters to turn out, especially since a majority in the US Senate is no longer on the line.

Market Data at 8 a.m. EST: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Georgia?

“Trump probably does more to juice Democrat turnout than have an effect on our guy,” said prominent Republican strategist Josh Holmes. “We don’t know what the impact will be.”

While Republicans steer clear of the Trump “elephant in the room,” Democrats are calling in the big guns. No, not sitting President Joe Biden. Former President Barack Obama is being tapped to help Warnock keep voters engaged and excited about the race. Obama campaigned in Georgia with Warnock last month to a crowd of more than 7,000 people.

“The hard thing about runoffs is you’re trying to replicate the enthusiasm that you had in the general election, so you have to make sure that coalition will come back out,” Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau said. “Many of those folks voted for Obama, likely twice, so having him as a surrogate is huge for Warnock.”

Market Data at 8 a.m. EST: How many US Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

This is the second Senate runoff election in two years for voters in Georgia, so voters there are familiar with the national attention it brings. As a result of the infighting in the 2020 election runoff, and Trump and other conservative leaders casting doubt on the integrity of their votes, a critical mass of the Republican base sat out of the race completely. Warnock and now-Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) defeated both Republican candidates, giving Democrats their narrow majority.

Asked whether Trump would likely help or hurt GOP turnout, Cody Hall, a senior advisor to Kemp, said Republicans should focus their messaging on Warnock’s support of the Biden agenda, and that “recent history in Georgia runoffs proves that anything else is a distraction.”

Market Data at 8 a.m. EST: How many incumbent US senators will be re-elected in 2022?

Trump’s 2024 candidacy will also play a role in the election of the next speaker of the US House, which takes place in January. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was formally re-elected to the position on Tuesday, clearing the first formal hurdle and fending off a challenge from the far-right faction of his party. When asked if he would endorse Trump’s run, McCarthy walked away from reporters.

To win, McCarthy needs the support of some of Trump’s closest allies in Congress. While he’s managed to remain in Trump’s good graces for now, he is not the favorite for some in the influential 30-member House Freedom Caucus. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) is the former head of the Freedom Caucus and posed a challenge to McCarthy’s leadership bid this week, but he cleared the hurdle with 188 House Republican votes. The speaker vote takes place in January and requires at least 218 votes to win – a majority of the entire 435-seat US House of Representatives. There are still a handful of races that haven’t been called, more than a week after Election Day.

“IT’S OFFICIAL! Democrats’ One-Party rule is OVER. @HouseGOP and I are ready to get to work for the American people, and fulfill our #CommitmentToAmerica with a GOP House Majority,” tweeted McCarthy on Wednesday.

Market Data at 8 a.m. EST: Who will be speaker of the US House of Representatives in the next Congress?

McCarthy will have to manage the vocal Trump loyalists who are more focused on exacting revenge on Democrats by investigating the Biden administration than legislating. Back in September, then-Minority Leader McCarthy laid out an agenda for the Republicans under his leadership which reflects a party shaped in the image of Trump.

Without control of the Senate, the House Republican majority will still not be able to set policy, but will be a thorn in the side of the Biden agenda. They’ll also spend the next two years setting the stage for the Republican agenda going into the 2024 presidential election.

“I do think that Kevin McCarthy needs to – if he wants to have a chance at being speaker – he needs to be much more declarative that he is supporting President Trump,” said a former Trump senior advisor, Jason Miller. “It’s gonna be a MAGA-centric caucus for the Republicans in the House and even for the Senate. We need leadership to match.”

Market Prices at 8 a.m. EST: Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

Other prominent Republicans are becoming increasingly vocal about their wishes to move beyond Trump.

“I think we’ll have better choices,” said former Vice President Mike Pence.

Since the poor midterm performance, many more Republicans have felt comfortable coming out publicly with messages that the party needs to move on from the former president and find a new path. That they now feel empowered to speak out says a lot about where they lay the blame for this year’s midterm election results.

“America does better when its leaders are rooted in today and tomorrow, not today and yesterday,” said Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone Inc.’s chief executive officer. “It’s time for the Republican Party to turn to a new generation of leaders and I intend to support one of them in the presidential primaries.”

Thomas Peterffy, Republican megadonor and founder of Interactive Brokers Group Inc. who supported Trump in 2020, agrees that it’s time to turn the page.

“We need a fresh face,” Peterffy said. “The problem with Trump is he has so many negatives. He can’t get elected, period.”

While he said he would vote for Trump if he in fact ends up as the nominee, but added, “I will do whatever I can to make sure he is not.”

Market Data at 8 a.m. EST: Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?

The loss of these deep-pocketed backers, among others, may not have a major impact on Trump’s fundraising as his low-dollar efforts from his base have been extremely successful. But it’s a sign that the tables may be turning.

Trump’s formal announcement complicates his finances by triggering election law, which is why it is so rare to have someone in this position this far out. But his political committees had $84 million in the bank according to the latest Federal Election Commission filing. Under federal law, his leadership PAC, which has $70 million, can only donate $5,000 to his presidential campaign. He also won’t be able to coordinate with a new super PAC, which got an infusion of $20 million from his leadership PAC before the midterms. Trump gave very little from his war chest to the candidates who he endorsed in the midterm elections, which was reported at the time.

Trade the Markets

The initial big winner from Trump’s Tuesday announcement on his 2024 plans was not the former president, but instead, the current president. Biden’s contract in the 2024 US presidential winner’s market leapfrogged Trump’s by gaining 5¢ on Tuesday to close at 29¢ before gaining another 2¢ on Wednesday and closing on Thursday at 32¢ and a tie for the lead with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

What’s more, the Democrat contract in the 2024 US presidential party winner contract is up 4¢ since Tuesday — closing Thursday just 1¢ off the Republican contract, 52¢ to 51¢. On Monday, the margin was 8¢ between the two contracts.

Market Data at 8 a.m. EST: Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?

Back to Trump, whose contract saw an initial 3¢ bump in the overall winner’s market to 27¢ but then lost 4¢ on Wednesday and finished Thursday at the same price of 23¢, which is where he started on Monday. In the 2024 Republican nomination market, his contract fluctuated wildly on Tuesday as it opened at 41¢, rose to 48¢ before bottoming out at 36¢ and closing at 39¢. Wednesday brought more waves and a 4¢ loss before he closed yesterday up 2¢ to 37¢ and 4¢ below his starting point on Monday. Trump is now 4¢ below the market’s leader, DeSantis, whose contract hit 45¢ on Wednesday before settling back down on Thursday.

Finally, back to Georgia and the House speaker markets. In the Peach State, the crowd feels like Warnock is in a very strong position to win re-election over Walker at 78¢ to 24¢ — with Trump’s decision doing little to impact the race as of this week. McCarthy’s win in the House leadership contest on Tuesday netted the California Republican 12¢ to close at 85¢. His contract finished Thursday trading at 83¢ — and as the clear frontrunner to replace Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for the top job in the lower chamber.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

The Atlantic: “If politics is becoming like sports, and sports is becoming all about betting, it would seem to follow that politics would become more about betting. In this context, the crackdown on political betting seems somewhat silly. The amount of money changing hands in the world of sports betting absolutely dwarfs the amount spent on political betting (PredictIt traders cannot wager more than $850 in any one market). Why shut it down and let sports betting proceed?”

MarketWatch: “This isn’t the first time the CFTC has come down on markets like PredictIt. The agency rejects a 2012 proposal by the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADEX) on the basis that the proposed contract had “no economic purpose” and was “contrary to the public interest.” This despite the fact that NADEX was a CFTC-approved contract market for derivative financial instruments. To put it another way: Multi-billion dollar arcane Wall Street financial instruments are acceptable while low-dollar, low-stakes public prediction markets are not.”

Audible Insights

A PredictIt collage.

Ruthless: The New House Majority

The fellas discuss the latest on the midterm election outcome and the latest animal news before playing King of the Hill.

Star Spangled Gamblers: Kevin McCarthy: Destined to be the GOP’s Leader or Loser?

After a disappointing election, some are declaring the House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) hopes for being speaker of the House are done... However, as you’ll see, we are very skeptical that this mountain of strain will amount to much more than a political anthill — at least between now and January, when McCarthy would likely be sworn-in to preside over a very narrow Republican majority.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Congressional Control Remains Up For Grabs

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. We still don’t know who’s in control of Congress. As of Thursday, more than 30 Congressional seats remain undecided, leaving control of the US House of Representatives still up in the air (and slowing down the maneuvering for House leadership positions). The upper chamber majority also hangs in the balance, with the decision resting on three key states – Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

*Market prices updated as of 7 a.m. EST on Friday, Nov. 11.

This Week in the Markets

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Herschel Walker (R). Courtesy Campaign Photos: Raphael Warnock & Team Herschel.

Congressional Control Remains Up For Grabs

As of Thursday, Republicans have 211 seats in the US House of Representatives, while Democrats have 194 and 30 remain undecided. Given the races still in play, the general consensus is that the Republicans will in fact win a House majority, but the margin is still unknown. It’s also likely to end up far narrower than a lot of people predicted it would be.

Perhaps the most surprising race that still remains undecided is Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-CO) race has yet to be called. As of this writing, she was up only 0.14% with 95% of votes counted. Such fine margins means the race is likely to go to a recount. Boebert is a firebrand, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, and is running in a still conservative district in an increasingly blue state.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?

The Republican House leader, Kevin McCarthy, has already announced his intention to run for speaker if Republicans take over, an outcome he has described as inevitable. President Joe Biden told reporters on Thursday he and McCarthy had spoken but said he had not abandoned hope that Democrats could prevail in the House, despite the tough odds. “It’s still alive,” Biden said of their chances.

We also don’t have an answer to the big question surrounding which party will end up with control of the US Senate, and that has the potential to be dragged out until after the Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia, or it could be decided before then depending on how Nevada and Arizona shake out.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) came out slightly ahead of Republican challenger Herschel Walker with 49.4% to 48.5%. Libertarian Chase Oliver secured 2% of votes, potentially thwarting the ability of either Warnock or Walker to top the 50% threshold and avoid a runoff in December.

An impending runoff spurred almost immediate reports of national groups preparing their efforts to jump into the Georgia race. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) plans to spend $7 million on field operations over the next month in support of Warnock. And the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, along with Women Speak Out PAC also announced they would be spending at least $1 million on the runoff in support of Walker. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) also announced they would start running ads in the state.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Georgia?

Before the runoff, all eyes are on Nevada and Arizona. If one party sweeps both, the Senate majority will be decided, but if the parties split it will all come down to Georgia.

In Arizona, with 70% of the votes tabulated, incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is leading with 51% with Republican Blake Masters at 46%. The Libertarian candidate Marc Victor, who dropped out of the race in the final weeks and endorsed Masters but was still on the ballot, came away with 2% of the vote. Hundreds of thousands of votes still need to be counted in Arizona.

The New York Times reports that most Arizona voters were expected to vote early, but that the ballots require voter signature verification, and officials were saying the timing of results would depend on how many people waited until the last minute on Election Day to return their ballots.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: Which party will win the US Senate election in Arizona in 2022?

Kelly continues to hold a lead of more than 90,000 votes. Cochise County is conducting a hand count of votes despite a judicial order saying it shouldn’t, which isn’t helping expedite the situation.

The winner of Arizona’s gubernatorial contest between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs is also still unknown. As of Thursday, Hobbs was leading with 50.34% to Lake’s 49.66%.

“We will be working Friday and Saturday and Sunday, and move through these ballots. The staff here are working 14 to 18 hours a day. We are doing what we can,” Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chair Bill Gates told reporters.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: Which party will win the US Senate election in Nevada in 2022?

In Nevada’s US Senate race, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) trails Republican Adam Laxalt by just under 9,000 votes, giving the challenger a one-point lead at 49% to 48% with 10% of votes in the state still needing to be counted. The counties with the highest number of votes still outstanding are Republican-heavy Lincoln County and Democratic-leaning Washoe County.

While officials are not making public predictions for when the results will be finalized, in 2020 it took three days for 90% of the vote to be reported. The state conducts a predominantly mail-in ballot election, and ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by the registrar’s office by Nov. 12 must be counted. More than 100,000 ballots remain to be counted.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: Arizona and Nevada gubernatorial races remain uncalled and are extemely tight as the count continues.

It also appears that Republican gubernatorial candidate Joe Lombardo (49.7%) may prevail over incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) (46.6%), but that race remains also uncalled as of writing.

If these numbers stay on similar track, the parties will in fact split the two states and leave control of the US Senate once again in the hands of Georgia voters in a very big runoff election.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: Which party will control the US Senate after 2022 election?

Alaska is the final US Senate race that remains uncalled, but has come down to a ranked-choice voting battle between Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Trump-endorsed Republican Kelly Tshibaka. The two candidates netted four in every five votes counted so far, mathematically guaranteeing that a Republican will hold the seat. With 80% of the vote reported on Thursday, Tshibaka held 44.3% of votes, while Murkowski had 42.8%.

The results in Alaska won’t be known until after Nov. 23 when state officials conduct the final round of ranked-choice balloting. Murkowski is expected to have the edge in the final round of balloting due to her broader appeal to Democrat and independent voters.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

According to estimates from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, 27% of people ages 18-29 turned out to vote in this election. Which is the second-highest youth turnout rate for a midterm election in the past 30 years, just behind 31% in 2018.

“Nationally, young voters supported Democrat House candidates by a wide margin: 62% to 35%. In several key Senate and gubernatorial elections, youth support for Democrat candidates was even higher, as youth helped hold back a ‘red wave,’” the center said.

Market Prices at 7 a.m. EDT: Which 2022 Senate race will be the closest?

Trade the Markets

While three US Senate races and more than 30 US House races remain up for grabs — even if only just so — the crowd appears closer to certainty. A split Congress — Republican House and Democrat Senate — closed at 89¢ on Thursday, while sweeps for either party stand in single digits at 9¢. More concisely put, odds of Democrats keeping control of the US Senate enters Friday trading at 91¢ — up 10¢ yesterday — and House coming under Republican control at 90¢.

On the seat front, the crowd believes the Democrats are best placed to gain on their current count with 49 GOP seats predicted at 68¢. The next most likely outcome in the US Senate is for another stalemate at 25¢, and in correlation with overall pricing, 51 GOP seats is now priced at just 5¢. This all points to the crowd confidently predicting what the outcome will be for those votes yet to be counted in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

That last state listed — Georgia — is expected to also go to the Democrats at the moment — with the crowd picking the incumbent Warnock at 73¢ over the challenger Walker’s 30¢. Elsewhere, Alaska’s US Senate race, which won’t be decided officially until Nov. 23, is leaning overwhelmingly toward a Murkowski re-election at 94¢.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

FastCompany: “Because betting on electoral outcomes falls outside federal and state law in a kind of murky regulatory backwater, PredictIt—which is run by Victoria University in New Zealand—operates under an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that allows it to function as an educational effort. Among other things, this means I can’t place a single bet more than $850.”

Barron’s: “The betting market has put even greater odds on Democrats keeping control of the Senate amid unresolved midterm races in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia that will determine control of the chamber. The online prediction market PredictIt said the betting line on Democrats retaining their majority was 91 cents, up from 77 cents on Wednesday, while the line for Republicans has dropped to 9 cents, from 25 cents on Wednesday.”

The Hill: “Online betting markets now give Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) the edge to win the White House in 2024, overtaking former President Trump in the wake of Tuesday’s midterm elections. PredictIt showed a slimmer lead, with DeSantis at 31% to 32% and Trump at 28% to 29%.”

Audible Insights

A PredictIt collage.

Ruthless: Election Day Debrief

The fellas discuss initial thoughts on the election results and the ongoing counts in a variety of races across the map.

Star Spangled Gamblers: The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Night for Trump

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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predictit-analytics · 1 year

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Predictable Insights: It All Comes Down to the Senate

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. The last few weeks we’ve covered the top five gubernatorial races to watch and whether House control is still up for grabs. The final major piece of the 2022 midterm puzzle, and the biggest nail-biter, has come down to which party will control the US Senate. We’ve been saying it for most of the cycle now, but it’s truer than ever with the midterms decided in mere days: Every. Senate. Seat. Matters. More than 30 million early votes have already been cast!

So today we’re doing a quick run through of the hottest US Senate races to trade before Tuesday, Nov. 8.

We’re almost out of space so if you haven’t reserved your spot yet for PredictIt’s Election Night Party do it now! And if you’ve missed it, PredictIt has been in the news a lot lately. Be sure to check out our ICYMI section below as well as our open positions. If you want to be part of the team we’d love to hear from you.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Nov. 4.

This Week in the Markets

Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) addresses the Wisconsin Army National Guard’s 32nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team in a sendoff ceremony at Volk Field, Wisconsin. Wisconsin Department of Military Affairs photo by Vaughn R. Larson / Flickr / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

The Hottest Senate Races to Watch

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight is reporting this week that the US Senate is officially a “toss-up.”

Zooming out to the bigger picture: 21 Republican and 14 Democrat US Senate seats are up for election on Tuesday to decide which party will win control of the now evenly divided upper chamber of Congress. Vice President Kamala Harris sits as the tie breaking vote and gives Democrats de-facto majority status.

In the final week of the 2022 midterm election cycle, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona hold the keys to gaining a Senate majority. Pennsylvania is especially important here because if Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) can beat celebrity surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz, then Republicans would need to win two of the three other big races.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?

Even if Republicans do pull out a victory and win a majority, it will likely be by only one or two seats, not the “red wave” standard seen in 2014 when Republicans picked up nine US Senate seats.

But that’s all they’ll need to gum things up for the second half of President Joe Biden’s first term, especially since Republicans are widely expected to gain a majority in the US House of Representatives.

Here's the latest news and market data from the top US Senate races:

Fetterman or Oz in Pennsylvania?

Dr. Mehmet Oz and Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D). Photos: Campaign courtesy photo from Doctor Oz for Senate and public domain.

A new Monmouth University poll shows Fetterman leading Oz 48% to 44% in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. By contrast, Emerson College/The Hill also conducted a poll following last week’s only candidate debate in the race and found Oz narrowly leading Fetterman 48% to 46%, though this was within the survey’s three-point margin of error. Still, the results are a five-point increase for Oz over the same poll in September. The survey also found that 54% of Pennsylvania voters said they expected Oz to win, while 47% said the same about Fetterman.

Fetterman’s performance during the debate highlighted his ongoing struggles in recovering from suffering a stroke in May. Fifty percent of voters said the debate worsened their opinion of the Democrat.

“Of those who say they have heard, seen or read a lot about the debate, Oz leads Fetterman 55% to 41%,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College polling.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Pennsylvania?

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Fetterman leading by 1.2 points. In a risky home stretch move, Oz will appear on stage with former President Donald Trump and Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano at a rally this weekend. Mastriano is a staunch 2020 election denier and is trailing in his race by double digits. Oz has distanced himself from Trump’s claims of fraud in the 2020 presidential election and has tried to project a moderate image throughout the general election.

There is fear from his side that the Trump-Mastriano combination could have undesired consequences for Oz just days before the vote is decided. But some, like Republican strategist Brian Nutt think the rally will help Oz by “bringing even more [Republican] voters home.”

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

What was once seen as an easy pick-up for Democrats is now a very difficult and close race.

Market Pulse: Oz leads Fetterman 65¢ to 39¢ after close of trading on Thursday. The big differentiator so far in the last month of this hotly contested US Senate race has been the debate. Oz owes his current lead to the crowd’s belief that Fetterman’s health concerns that were on full display on Oct. 25 were, in fact, that bad. Fetterman’s contract has made some inroads into the huge swing in price in the aftermath — but it’s been a bumpy ride. Since Sunday, Oct. 30, his contract has yo-yo-ed from 38¢ to 44¢ to 38¢ to 45¢ and then down to 39¢ on Thursday. Oz has seen a more gentle approach to his contract, but both candidates now sit at exactly where they did after the debate: ADVANTAGE OZ.

Warnock or Walker in Georgia?

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Herschel Walker (R). Courtesy Campaign Photos: Raphael Warnock & Team Herschel.

In spite of the several scandals plaguing Republican nominee Herschel Walker, he still has strong support in his race against incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), much to the dismay of Democrats who thought the late-breaking scandals would be enough to take him down. Reporters have found, and polling has supported, that many Republicans in Georgia are willing to look past Walker’s reported transgressions because they believe he is better suited to tackle what they see as the nation’s biggest issues – economic uncertainty.

Since a candidate needs at least 50% of the vote to win in Georgia, the race is likely to go to a runoff on Dec. 6, according to polling. That means control of the US Senate could be unknown for some time.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Georgia?

An Emerson College/The Hill survey in the state released yesterday found Warnock leading Walker by two percentage points – 49% to 47% — a statistical tie given the poll’s three-point credibility interval. The economy was cited by 46% of those surveyed as the most important issue facing the country, and of those voters, 75% said they plan to vote for Walker.

Another notable statistic from the poll found that Biden’s approval rating among voters in the state is underwater – 52% to 41% — which is likely to be a drag on Warnock. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) could also help bring Walker’s numbers up, as he holds a six-point lead over his Democrat challenger, Stacey Abrams.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which 2022 Senate race will be the closest?

“It’s pretty reasonable to come up with turnout scenarios where either candidate is slightly ahead,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “The unknown question is to what extent Republican enthusiasm on Election Day is able to overcome the Democratic advantage in early voting.”

Market Pulse: Since hitting a 90-day low of 36¢ in early October after the first abortion-related scandal hit, Walker’s Republican contract has gained just under 30¢. He now leads Warnock 64¢ to 43¢ and is up 6¢ in trading this week, while the incumbent is down 2¢. The biggest damage to Warnock’s bid for a first full term came last week in a three day span when his contract fell from 51¢ to 38¢ on Oct. 28. The crowd seems comfortable in the polling and early voting in-person figures to give Walker the benefit of doubt in the Peach State. ADVANTAGE WALKER.

Kelly or Masters in Arizona?

Blake Masters speaking with attendees at the “Rally to Protect Our Elections” in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Democrats have been confident in their chances at keeping Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D-AZ) seat for much of the general election, with Republican nominee Blake Masters a controversial and untested candidate in their eyes. But the underdog is doing better than expected, bringing Arizona very much into play for both parties.

This week’s decision by Libertarian candidate Marc Victor to drop out and endorse Masters is likely to boost the Republican’s numbers. Victor’s presence in the race meant Masters was most likely to lose votes to the third-party candidate who was pulling between 2.7% and 6% support in recent public polls.

“I think it could be a difference maker. There are a lot of ballots out there, and if the Libertarian pulls a couple percent, it can have an impact,” said Daniel Scarpinato, a former top aide to Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R).

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Arizona in 2022?

But, and it’s a big BUT, Victor was late in his decision to drop out of the race and his name will still appear on the ballot. More than 1 million voters in the state have already cast their ballots since early voting began on Oct. 12. While no one thinks that the move will hurt Masters’ odds, there are some who don’t think it will make a difference as the majority of Victor’s votes were probably protest votes against either major party candidate.

Kelly, a former astronaut, is one of the Democrats top fundraisers and has led in the race since the end of the primaries in August. But the race has narrowed. Several recent polls show the race in a dead heat. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Kelly a lead over Masters by 2.3%, and the nonpartisan political forecaster Cook Political Report put the race back into “toss up” territory a month after shifting it to “lean Democrat.”

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

In a state with a bitterly divided Republican base, part of Masters’ closing message is to say that he will take after Arizona’s other senator, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D), by being a thorn in the side of party leadership.

“Chuck Schumer owns Mark Kelly. Chuck Schumer does not own Kyrsten Sinema. He wishes he did. Everyone knows McConnell won’t own me,” Masters told The Daily Mail.

Market Pulse: The Arizona race is the tightest US Senate contest on PredictIt by price at the moment — beating out New Hampshire’s quickly tightening affair. The last two weeks of trading has seen neither contract drop below 47¢ nor go above 57¢. That 10¢ window of trading has led to three lead changes during that period and with Masters ahead of Kelly at the moment, 54¢ to 49¢. With just 5¢ separating the two candidates, this race is well and truly a TOSS UP.

Cortez Masto or Laxalt in Nevada?

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) speaking with attendees at the Clark County Democratic Party's 2020 Kick Off to Caucus Gala in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Trump-backed Republican challenger Adam Laxalt has begun to feel pretty good about his chances in Nevada against Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). Laxalt is a political dynasty in the state – his father was a senator and his grandfather a governor – so he’s hardly a new name to voters. But Laxalt has stuck by his denial of the results of the 2020 presidential election, which is damaging among voters outside of some in the Republican base. The state has high white- and Latino working-class populations, who have struggled to recover financially from the pandemic and are finding more difficulties under the current economic conditions.

In past years, Democrats in the state have been able to mobilize their base, including Latino voters to eke out victories, but that was largely thanks to the mobilization machine credited to late Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), which is no longer fully operational.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: How many incumbent US senators will be re-elected in 2022?

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed the candidates deadlocked at 47% each – the closest of the states surveyed. Two other notable surveys give close but mixed results. An Emerson College/The Hill poll showed Laxalt beating Cortez Masto by 5% — 50% to 45% — with 3% undecided. This is an 8% increase for Laxalt over last month and a 4% increase for Cortez Masto.

“In September, nearly a third of Hispanic voters were undecided in the races for US Senate and Nevada governor. A week from Election Day, a majority of Hispanic voters support Republicans Laxalt and Lombardo over their Democrat incumbent opponents,” said Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling director.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Nevada in 2022?

The dueling campaign messages in the final weeks come down to economics versus abortion. Democrats are battering Laxalt over his stance on abortion – he has said he would support a ban in the state after the first trimester. Nevada law currently allows abortion up to 24 weeks. Laxalt’s campaign in turn has attacked Cortez Masto on economic issues with the Silver State holding one of the highest unemployment rates in the country and some of the highest gas prices.

Market Pulse: Trading in Nevada’s US Senate market this week has really benefited Laxalt and the Republican contract. Gaining 11¢, his contract now stands at 90-day high of 76¢, while Cortez Masto and the Democrats are at a corresponding low. Their contract has fallen 10¢ since Monday and comes in at 26¢ to start trading today. What was once a very close race — from the end of July through the middle of September — has now become very one-sided with the crowd making Republicans the big beneficiaries when it matters most. ADVANTAGE LAXALT.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

The New Yorker: “Prediction markets make the horse race less interesting,” Andrew Leigh, the Australian economist and MP, told me. “Rather than a new shock of polls coming in on a daily basis, you’ve got this continuous metric of who’s going to win calmly in the background.” He added, “I actually like the dull nature of prediction markets. They allow us to put the focus back on ideas.”

The Washington Post: “What I think they’re very valuable for is taking the uncertainty about a future event and expressing it in the present time: What does this mean for today?” said Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers who has written studies on the predictive nature of betting markets. “You can see this event happen, and then immediately the market moves.”

The Wall Street Journal: “If investors can express their opinions on the future prices of corn and pork bellies, surely the First Amendment also protects their ability to do the same on elections and other political matters. It’s a matter of free speech that you can put your money where your mouth is.”

Also seen in: 13 WMAZ, El Pais, USBets.com, The Australian, Harvard Independent, Deseret News and The Lines.

Audible Insights

A PredictIt collage.

Star Spangled Gamblers: A Glimmer of Hope for Democrats & Political Bettors

“It’s a less than one week until the election. We’ve got a lot to say and not a lot of time to say it. On this edition of Star Spangled Gamblers, expect savage betting insights on: Is New York now in play for Republicans? New information says, yes. Can you trust the latest New York Times polls, which show Democrats ahead in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia… and tied in Nevada...?”

Ruthless: Red Wave Has Never Been Closer

The fellas discuss the coming election and the latest animal news before playing King of the Hill. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) joins the program for a conversation about his campaign for governor of New York.

Hardfactor: Perfect Rocket Launches, Perfect Trades, Perfect Jackpots and the Perfect Shoe

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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predictit-analytics · 1 year

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Predictable Insights: Is House Control Still Up for Grabs?

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. With eleven days left in the 2022 midterm election cycle, Republicans and Democrats are statistically tied when it comes to which party voters nationally want to see controlling the House of Representatives, but the numbers that could make the difference are all leaning in the direction of Republicans gaining the majority.

We’ll look at the latest polling, spending numbers and what exactly is shaping the crowd’s thinking. And finally, with Brazil’s presidential election runoff slated for Sunday, we have a quick hit on the state of affairs before the consequential vote.

And if you’ve missed it, PredictIt has been in the news a lot lately. Be sure to check out our ICYMI section below! We are also hiring! If you want to be part of the team we’d love to hear from you.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 28.

This Week in the Markets

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Photos: Public Domain.

Is House Control Still Up For Grabs?

Republicans have closed the gap on the national generic ballot after Democrats held the lead for the past two months, putting the parties neck-and-neck in their support among voters nationwide. But there are indications that the question is not so much whether Republicans will control the US House of Representatives after the election – they likely will, according to the markets – but by how many seats.

For voters who identify with either the Republican or Democrat Party, the choice for who they want to see controlling the House breaks down as expected – with 97% from each party saying they’ll tow the line. That means that control of Congress will ultimately come down to independent voters, and a week and a half before voting ends, those numbers are trending in favor of Republicans, according to a poll of more than 100,000 likely voters out this week from the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies/SurveyMonkey.

NBC News Polling Graphic: Republicans hold a six-point lead in key battleground states, according to a Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies/SurveyMonkey poll of over 100,000 likely voters. And independents are breaking for the GOP too.

Nationally, 49% of those surveyed said they would vote for the Democrat congressional candidate and 51% said they would vote for the Republican – well within the poll’s empirical error estimate of 4.5 percentage points. What should be concerning to Democrats is that among independents, 52% say they’ll vote for the Republican and 48% say the Democrat. In key battleground states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Caroline, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – the Republican advantage grows to six points – 53% to 47% — suggesting the momentum is on the side of Republicans in the final two weeks.

On the issues, the survey found that 40% of likely voters overall say inflation is the most important to them right now, followed by crime and safety (23%), abortion (15%), climate change (14%) and guns (8%). Independent voters tend to side more strongly with Republicans than Democrats, with both Republicans and independents identifying inflation as the most important issue, while Democrats identify climate change and abortion as their top priorities.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

This isn’t the only poll to come out with similar findings over the last several weeks. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from Oct. 9-12 found that 26% identified the economy as the most important problem facing the country, followed by inflation (19%), while threats to democracy received only 7% and abortion was the top concern for only 4% of respondents. Concerning to the Democratic chattering class is that the latter issues – abortion rights and the threats of former President Donald Trump’s claims about the 2020 election – have made up a large portion of the messaging in key House races. Some high-profile Democrats have been urging their party’s candidates to confront the issues highest on the minds of voters, and to pivot to the offensive against their Republican opponents.

“If you go out and ask the average American what’s on their mind, what’s on their mind is the economy, what’s on their mind is inflation. It’s not conceivable to me that you can run away from those issues,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). “There has not been enough of a contrast between the reactionary Republican position on the economy and what Democrats have done, can do, and should do.”

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election

The party in power almost always loses ground in the midterm elections historically, and this year Democrats have economic factors working against them as well. The elections coincide with high levels of inflation not seen since the early 1980s, but a fairly strong job market – with an unemployment rate in September of 3.5%, and average job gains of about 420,000 jobs a month in 2022. Meanwhile, this year the Dow Jones Industrial average is down about 12%, a statistic that plays into people’s savings that Republican believe won’t go unnoticed.

“The Democrats missed the messaging this cycle. It didn’t help that Biden and the White House were all over the place. But they overplayed abortion and they missed that everyone is getting their 401(k) retirement reports and they’re all getting crushed,” said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist. “I think they’ve been a little tone deaf on what people really care about. And they seem to keep trying to talk them into caring about things they don’t care about.”

Economic factors like inflation are also key for those on fixed incomes, like some seniors, who are also among those most likely to vote. In the 2018 midterm election, 66% of people 65 and older cast ballots, compared to the national average of 53%, according to the US Census Bureau.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?

One more poll worth noting is the most recent from CNN/SSRS, which found that 48% of voters in swing districts said they would vote for Republicans in House races, compared to 43% who said they would back a Democrat. The poll also found that more Republican voters (52%) are motivated to vote compared to Democrat voters (46%), and in competitive districts that divide increases to 55% of Republicans and 45% of Democrats.

CNN/SSRS also found the economy and inflation to be among the top issues for voters, with 67% of voters in key districts saying it is a driving factor in their vote, compared to 59% of all voters nationwide.

Let’s take a look at how all of this has factored into ratings changes in key races. The Cook Political Report this week changed its ratings in ten House races, mostly in favor of Republicans. Three of the key ratings changes were for Reps. Mike Levin (D-CA), Jahana Hayes (D-CT) and Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) who moved into “toss up” territory after previously considering them slight Democratic favorites. Cook also raised its projection for House Republican gains on Nov. 8 to between 12 and 25 seats – up from 10 to 20 seats. Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to overturn the majority.

The Cook Political Report Graphic: Ten House rating changes were made this week, including four Democrat incumbents shifting from “Lean Dem” to “Toss Up” and two — Reps. Mary Peltola (D-AK) and Sharice Davids (D-KS) — from “Toss Up” to “Lean Dem.”

Inside Elections also changed several ratings this week – 13 in favor of Republicans and with eight shifting toward Democrats. Their expectation, according to Roll Call, is that Republicans will gain eight to 24 seats, with the number coming down to late-deciding voters and Democrat enthusiasm.

FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 7-in-10 chance of gaining control of the House. And Sabato’s Crystal Ball, at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, announced this week that they were moving four races from “toss up” territory to “lean Republican.” That brings their total of House races rated in favor of the GOP to 218 – the number needed to gain a majority – with many more races remaining close and competitive. The ratings changes include races in California, New Mexico, New York and Oregon, all previously considered safe territory for Democrats.

With more seats to defend, it’s not all that surprising that Democrats are spending more, but all together the spending in this election cycle is astonishing with Democrats outspending Republicans two-to-one. Democrat House candidates have spent or reserved more than $167 million on ads this cycle compared to Republicans’ $72 million, according to AdImpact.

FiveThirtyEight Average Polling Graphic: Republicans hold a slim lead in the congressional generic ballot, but a 7-in-10 chance of gaining control of the House.

Add in the issue groups and a total of $409 million will be spent on Democrats before Election Day, $57 million more than the Republican side. Campaigns have also spent almost $50 million on ads running on Facebook and Google in just the last 30 days alone, according to CNBC, and AdImpact estimates that overall ad spending will hit $9.7 billion by Nov. 8.

The massive spending throughout the 2022 election cycle reflects the urgency felt by both parties to gain or hold onto power in Washington and across the country.

Trade the Markets

As the US House is our main focus today, we’ll start our analysis there. The crowd has Republican odds of taking power from the Democrats after the midterm vote at 90¢, which is equal to the contract’s 90-day high. The well-documented late-summer swoon — when the contract fell to 72¢ on Aug. 23 — has given way toward an upward trajectory that has finally leveled off at or near 90¢ for the last seven days. Odds of the Democrats keeping control have in equal measure waned — falling from a 30¢ high to 12¢ and even dropping briefly to a 90-day low of 11¢ on Oct. 21.

Backing up these figures is the next speaker of the House market, which sees Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) well-positioned to take over the job at 86¢ — up 25¢ since Sept. 3. Current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) odds are now in the single digits and closed Thursday at 8¢ — 1¢ above her 90-day low.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will be speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress?

Casting our eye further afield and across the other two control markets and we find a gathering consensus for a red wave event. Republicans are now projected to take the US Senate at 72¢ — gaining another 4¢ on Thursday — a price not seen since before the US Supreme Court ruled to overturn Roe v. Wade in mid-June. Those odds are bolstered by the crowds overall take on the balance of power, which now prices a Republican sweep at 69¢ — up 25¢ in the last 30 days. A split of the House — for Republicans — and the Senate — for Democrats — is the second most likely outcome at 26¢, but is down 17¢ in the same time span.

The crowd is predicts Republicans will pick up three seats in the US Senate and end the midterm cycle with 53 at 24¢. The top contract gained 4¢ yesterday to close 6¢ above a tie for second place, which projects either 54 seats or 52 seats controlled by Republicans in the next Congress.

The Final Vote: Bolsonaro or Lula?

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Photos (L-R): Ricardo Stuckert / Presidência da República / CC BY 3.0 BR & Isac Nóbrega / PR / Flickr / Palácio do Planalto / CC BY 2.0.

Who Will Win Brazil’s Presidential Election Runoff on Sunday?

Brazilians will vote in their next president on Sunday in the final round of what has been a polarizing election. The choice is between the leftist former president, Luiz Inácio Lula de Silva, and the far-right incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro. It’s anticipated that the final vote will be a close one, with neither candidate having gained the required 50% to win outright in the first round earlier this month.

Lula was president for two terms between 2003 and 2011 as the leader of Brazil’s left-wing Workers’ Party. During his tenure, he enacted large social welfare programs that lifted many out of poverty and left office with a 90% approval rating. But since then, he’s been wrapped up in a corruption scandal that placed him in jail until he was recently cleared.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022?

Bolsonaro, a former army captain, emerged in the last decade as a leader in the right-wing Liberal Party and ran for president in 2018. Under his tenure, poverty has grown and his popularity has taken a hit over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. In a bid to chip away at Lula’s polling lead, the president launched a slew of last-minute measures such as extending welfare handouts for half a million families and boosting assistance for taxi drivers in a bid to improve voters’ feelings about the economy.

A Datafolha poll released Wednesday showed 49% support for Lula and 45% for Bolsonaro, which is a percentage gain for Bolsonaro over the prior week. Bolsonaro’s first round vote performance on Oct. 2 caught many by surprise — including the pollsters, some of which had Lula winning a majority. With that trend in place as well as the president and his party performing well in some of Brazil’s most densely populated states, Sunday’s results is now expected to be extremely close.

AS/COA Graphic: Aggregate polling suggests a tight race between Lula and Bolsonaro with the challenger slightly ahead. Elsewhere, Datafolha data points provide a better breakdown of regional strengths and where unsuccessful first-round candidate votes may go.

There is fear that such a close vote could lead to violence, with supporters of both candidates meeting in violent, sometimes fatal, clashes over recent months. There is also fear among Bolsonaro critics that he has been laying the groundwork to contest the results. He has said that he will respect the results if they are “clean and transparent,” but has also made claims about Brazil’s electronic ballot system being susceptible to fraud.

“These are two candidates that people really love and really hate. Supporters of Bolsonaro or Lula see them as gods, and they see the other guy as the worst thing that could ever happen,” said Guga Chacra, a prominent political commentator for Brazil’s GloboNews.

Two other polls this week show Lula with a wider lead of six percentage points. A PoderData poll found Lula winning 53%, up from the same poll a week earlier where he garnered 52%. The poll interviewed 5,000 voters and had a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points. Bolsonaro lost a percentage going from 48% a week ago to 47% this week. And a poll by Genial/Quaest found Lula with 48% and Bolsonaro with 42%. That survey interviewed 2,000 voters and had a margin of error of two percentage points.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?

Trade the Markets

Over the last four days, the crowd has grown exceedingly bullish on Lula’s odds of defeating Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential election runoff on Sunday. The pair of candidates now stand at 77¢ for Lula and 25¢ for Bolsonaro. Prior to the recent switch in momentum, the crowd had begun to doubt its take on Lula’s chances — shifting his first-round price of 82¢ downward to 66¢ by Oct. 23. Meanwhile, the incumbent had grown in strength on the hopes that his initial performance and the polls’ glaring miss would spur him to victory on Oct. 30. Bolsonaro’s contract doubled from Oct. 2 (18¢) to Oct. 23 (36¢) before falling 9¢ on Oct. 24 and then continuing a downward trend to his current pricing.

Bolsonaro’s odds in the Latin America next out market have correspondingly increased as well over the last four days — rising from 64¢ to 77¢. He now stands at the same price in this market as he did after the first round vote. Peruvian President Pedro Castillo is second at 16¢, while Chilean President Gabriel Boric is at 5¢. Castillo had climbed to 30¢ as of Oct. 23, but has since fallen off into a comfortable second place over Boric.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

New York Magazine: “I don’t think it’s an overstatement to say it’s an antidote to fake news,” said Aristotle CEO John Aristotle Phillips. “If you base your positions — your buying and selling — on fake news, you’re going to lose your money.”

USBets.com: “Harry Crane, a professor of statistics at Rutgers who has studied prediction markets, says PredictIt’s loyal and engaged user base offers a case study in why Kalshi offering regulated political prediction markets is of public interest. That could be viewed as a positive by Kalshi as it looks for approval to offer political markets. “If not for PredictIt, there would be really no evidence that these things are of public interest and do have any value,” Crane said.”

Daily Caller: “The election markets show buyers are bullish for the GOP, with Republican shares trading at 88 cents and Democratic shares at 13 cents on the question of which party will win the House in 2022, PredictIt shows. The platform showed that the fate of the Senate is less clear but still favors the GOP, with Republican shares trading at 61 cents while the Democrat shares were at 41 cents.”

Also seen in: The Washington Examiner, The Wall Street Journal, Breitbart, Minot Daily News and Casino.org.

Audible Insights

A PredictIt collage.

Star Spangled Gamblers: The Red Wave: Now a Danger to Dem Governors?

“While you were watching John Fetterman get absolutely shattered at the Pennsylvania Senate debate, we were watching Govs. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and Kathy Hochul (D-NY) defend their seats against increasingly potent Republican challengers. Betting markets have started to buy the hype on a massive Republican wave, and are giving the impression that these two prominent Democrats may actually be at risk... Should you buy the hype?”

Ruthless: Democrats Scramble in Pennsylvania

The fellas break down the Pennsylvania US Senate debate and the ensuing media reaction before playing King of the Hill. Mike Lawler joins the progrum for a conversation about his campaign to defeat Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY).

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Top 5 Governor Races to Watch

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. Gubernatorial races don’t always get the same attention as the battle for Congress in midterm elections, and especially not this year, when the race for control is so close. But governors have profound implications at the state-by-state level, especially at a time when red states and blue states are increasingly diverging on all kinds of policies. In all this year, there are 36 governor’s mansions up for grabs – 16 currently held by Democrats and 20 held by Republicans.

Governors can shape the political landscape in their states as far as fundraising and party organization that could have significant impact on the 2024 presidential race, making this year’s midterms all the more important. We’re looking at the five gubernatorial elections most considered to be in “toss up” territory: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon and Wisconsin. Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin have all been exceedingly close in recent presidential campaigns, but Kansas is a solidly red state and Oregon is solidly blue, making them exciting races to tune in to.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 21.

This Week in the Markets

Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake speaking with supporters in Scottsdale, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

The Top 5 Governor Races to Watch

We’re starting with Oregon, where Gov. Kate Brown (D) is term-limited, and the three-way race is giving Democrats in the state a run for their money. The Democrat candidate, former House Speaker Tina Kotek, and Republican candidate, former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan; and independent candidate, former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, all have a shot at winning on Nov. 8.

Oregon’s last Republican governor left office in 1987, and there are still questions as to whether Oregon has enough Republicans to elect Drazan, or if she can win over enough independent voters with Johnson also on the ticket. Kotek, the Democrat candidate, has had to increasingly distance herself from Brown who is unpopular among voters. Abortion rights are a top issue for voters in the state, but so are crime and homelessness, which have been on the rise. Still, given how blue Oregon is, Kotek has a path to victory if Democrats turn out.

The three took the stage for their fourth and final debate this week where they tackled some of the biggest campaign issues: homelessness, mental health, abortion rights, education and more. But it’s unclear to analysts if the debates moved the needle in the race.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election?

“The stakes are really high, in part because there’s a large number of undecided voters in Oregon,” said Christopher Stout, associate professor of political science at Oregon State University. “…In this case, because we have three really qualified candidates, a lot of voters are trying to make their final decision.”

In the final debate, Kotek became a target of both Johnson and Drazan, who aimed most of their criticism toward the Democrat. Two new polls released this week show just how tight the race is. The first comes from Hoffman Research Group and has Drazan leading with 37%, followed by Kotek with 35% support and Johnson with 20% with 12% still undecided. The poll included 700 likely voters in Oregon and has a margin of error of 3.8%, putting Kotek and Drazan essentially tied.

The second survey released this week came from Civiqs and had Kotek with an eight-point lead, at 47%, followed by Drazan with 39% and Johnson with just 7%. There was no option for undecided in the survey of about 800 likely voters, with a margin of error of 4.3%.

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight gives Drazan an ever-so-slight advantage on Nov. 8 with 37.8% to Kotek’s 37.4%. RealClearPolitics’ aggregator includes the Hoffman survey, but not the Civiqs, and gives Drazan an advantage of 2.8% in the final weeks.

FiveThirtyEight Average Polling Graphic: The polling averages in Oregon’s race for the governor’s mansion show virtually no space between the top two candidates as Drazan leads 37.8% to Kotek’s 37.4%.

A note about the money. The race to replace Brown is already the most expensive in Oregon history, with around $55 million spent so far. As of yesterday, Kotek has more cash on hand to spend than the other campaigns combined with $3.1 million. Johnson comes in second, with $1.3 million and Drazan’s campaign has just over $1 million.

Moving on to the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat governor serving in a red state – Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D). She faces Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt this year, a much stronger contender than the one she beat in 2018. The governor’s approval rating has held steady at 50% and she’s done well with fundraising, but it’s not likely to be the stellar year for Democrats that she would need to keep her post.

Notably, deep-red Kansas delivered a strong vote in favor of abortion rights in a statewide ballot measure on Aug. 2, giving a shock to Republicans and raising questions about whether more first-time, pro-abortion-rights voters will show up in November in favor of Kelly. Also working in Kelly’s favor is the addition of state Sen. Dennis Pyle on the ballot, who has served in the legislature as a Republican. Pyle could potentially drain some votes from Schmidt, and if Kelly can syphon off a chunk of Republican voters in the state, she stands a chance at re-election and making Kansas’ gubernatorial election a toss up as well as one of the most exciting this cycle.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election?

There hasn’t been a lot of polling in the state throughout the campaign, but the most recent from Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey from Sept. 15 through 18, gives Kelly a two percentage point advantage with 45% to 43% who favor Schmidt and 3% for Pyle. That all looks promising for Kelly, but Kansas is a state that former President Donald Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2020. In fact, Kelly is the only Democrat governor seeking re-election in a state that Trump won.

“Now, amid signs of a worsening environment for Democrats, the final stretch of the Kansas campaign is testing how much protection a strong local, personal brand still affords in governor’s races against gale-force political headwinds,” wrote Katie Glueck for The New York Times.

Emerson College Polling/The Hill Graphic: “Independent voters favor Governor Kelly over Attorney General Schmidt 46% to 30%. In addition, men and women are voting in nearly opposite ways in the gubernatorial election; men break for Schmidt 51% to 38%, and women break for Kelly 51% to 36%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Moving onto the battleground state of Arizona, where term limits have created an open race for Gov. Doug Ducey’s (R) position between Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) and former local television news anchor Kari Lake, the Republican candidate. This race, more than most, is decidedly a referendum on Trump’s place in our nation’s politics.

Following President Joe Biden’s win in 2020 there was a lengthy GOP challenge to the state’s election results – in which the outcome reaffirmed Biden as the winner. That challenge, and the fractures it left behind in state politico circles is shaping this year’s big races in the state. Hobbs was the secretary of state who oversaw the 2020 vote and became a target of Trump loyalists. Trump is a supporter of Lake, who made her way out of a grueling five-way GOP primary.

Arizona is a historically Republican state that has moved towards the Democrats in recent elections. But Hobbs has been in hot water lately for refusing to debate Lake and being caught in a racial and sexual discrimination lawsuit filed by a former state Senate staffer. Hobbs’ campaign insists that there is no point in participating in a debate with Lake that they say would descend into “childish name calling” and “constant interruptions.”

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election?

“I’m not interested in being a part of a Kari Lake spectacle or shouting match and I’m going to keep taking my case directly to the voters,” Hobbs told CNN.

Lake supporters and campaign volunteers have taken to taunting the Democratic candidate by dressing in chicken costume outside of Hobbs’ events and in front of her office with signs like “Hidin’ Hobbs” and “Katie the Coward.”

FiveThirtyEight gives Lake a 0.7% advantage over Hobbs – 47.1% to 46.4%. The latest polling included in the average from Trafalgar Group gives Lake a 3% advantage of 49% to 46%, but another recent poll from Arizona’s Family KTVK/KPHO-TV gives Hobbs the advantage, though even more slight, with 46% to 45%. The RealClearPolitics average gives Lake just a 1.6% advantage.

FiveThirtyEight Average Polling Graphic: Lake’s lead in this average is less than half of what RealClearPolitics projects, but both suggest the race is very close.

Moving northwest to Nevada, we find the polling aggregators showing Republican challenger Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo with a slight advantage over incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) with just weeks to go. Lombardo, the sheriff of one of the most important Democrat counties in the state, comes to the race with Trump’s endorsement and the first-time candidate has made significant gains statewide.

A recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll found Lombardo making gains in the Nevada bellwether Washoe County since August. The survey of 500 likely midterm voters had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Two months ago, Lombardo had only a 42% to 41% advantage in the county, but the most recent poll shows a seven-point swing in his direction. Lombardo now leads Sisolak 49% to 44%.

“Washoe County tends to be the bellwether for Nevada,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election?

Statewide, however, the two are deadlocked. In the same survey, Lombardo leads Sisolak 44% to 43%, well within the margin of error. Seven percent of statewide voters said they were still undecided and 2% opted for none of the candidates. Significantly, according to the poll, 18% of voters not registered with either of the two major parties and 14% of voters between 18 and 34 years old said they were still undecided.

“That says dollar for dollar, I want to be focusing on independents and young voters,” Paleologos said. “Whether you’re Lombardo, who wants to extend his lead, or whether you’re Sisolak, who wants to claw back some of the votes, that’s the first thing I’d been looking at.”

FiveThirtyEight Average Polling Graphic: The Republican candidate leads the Democrat incumbent by the slimmest of margins — with Lombardo garnering 45% support to Sisolak’s 44.8%.

Biden carried Nevada by only 2% in 2020 and Republican primary voters picked a candidate with a strong chance of winning. That said, incumbent status does come with its advantages that could work in Sisolak’s favor.

The final “toss up” gubernatorial race that we’re digging into today is Wisconsin, which is likely to be the closest gubernatorial race in the country, with two starkly different candidates vying for the seat. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D), who was swept into office by the blue wave of 2018, has spent much of his time battling the Republican-led state legislature. He’s blocked new restrictions on abortion and voting policy and is branding himself to Democrats as the last firewall against the conservative agenda – a role that has become more central in the race since the US Supreme Court’s decision to rescind Roe v. Wade. Evers and his Republican opponent, businessman Tim Michels, faced off at a public debate this week in which abortion was a main topic.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?

Republicans are just a few seats away from a veto-proof supermajority in the state legislature, but they may not need it to push through their agenda if Michels wins the governor’s race. Evers set the Wisconsin record for number of vetoes in a single legislative session on issues including abortion, education and voting rights.

The FiveThirtyEight average gives the incumbent just a 0.4% advantage — with Evers at 47.6% and Michels at 47.2%, while RealClearPolitics averages the polling in a tie at 47.8%. Biden won in Wisconsin by fewer than 21,000 votes, his narrowest victory in 2020. In 2018 Evers beat then-Gov. Scott Walker (R) by fewer than 30,000 votes.

FiveThirtyEight Average Polling Graphic: Half a percentage point separates the Democrat incumbent and the Republican challenger in Wisconsin’s governor race.

Trade the Markets

In all this year, there are 36 governor’s mansions up for grabs – 16 currently held by Democrats and 20 held by Republicans. Of which, there are 21 markets directly tracking the top elections. The crowd believes 12 of those races will be won by Democrats and nine by Republicans.

But overall, the crowd also predicts Republicans are likely to control 32 or more governor’s mansions once the dust settles this November. The top contract sits at 29¢ in early morning trading after closing at a 90-day high of 25¢ on Wednesday. The next most likely outcome is for 30 Republican governors at 22¢.

Switching our attention towards our five featured races and we start in Oregon, where the Republican contract shed 11¢ on Thursday to close at 48¢ and relinquishing the lead it had held for two days. The race has substantially tightened in the last thirty days as the crowd has driven Republican odds up 32¢ until the dip. The Democrat contract, meanwhile, fell 28¢ before gaining 7¢ yesterday to close at 52¢. The crowd isn’t giving the independent former state Sen. Betsy Johnson much of a chance — trading her contract at 2¢ this morning and down from her 30-day high of 10¢ set on Sept. 30.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many Republican governors will there be after the midterms?

Kansas’ gubernatorial tussle featuring the only Democrat governor seeking re-election in a state that Trump won currently expects the incumbent to lose to her Republican challenger, 61¢ to 40¢. That said, the race has been close recently with Kelly’s contract even taking the lead on Oct. 5, when she closed with a 56¢ to 51¢ advantage. It was also virtually tied less than two weeks ago before the trend line shifted back in favor of Schmidt, who is now tracking back towards a win on Nov. 8.

Moving out west to Arizona, the battle between Lake and Hobbs to replace Ducey also favors the Republican candidate. Lake’s contract is up 17¢ in the last month to close at a new 90-day high on Thursday of 79¢, while Hobbs hit another low yesterday at 24¢. The Democrat has shed 20¢ from her contract price since Sept. 28 with trend very much in favor of the Republican. What’s more, Lake is closing in on two months in the lead after taking over first place from Hobbs on Aug. 28.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: There are plenty of other governor races worth your prediction.

Our final two featured gubernatorial races share the exact same pricing this morning — with both predicting a Republican victory at 69¢ to 33¢. They have also each recorded their highest daily-trading volume figure in the last two days. That said, in Nevada, Lombardo’s lead took a hit on Thursday as it dropped from 72¢ to 66¢, while Sisolak recovered from a 90-day low of 33¢ to close at 35¢. And prior to yesterday’s dip, the Republican candidate had nearly doubled his share price from Sept. 8. The dramatic shift in momentum in the market has placed the race firmly in favor of the challenger at the moment.

Wisconsin has seen a similar shift in its governor’s race as Michels tacked on over 20¢ from mid-September to close at a new 90-day high on Wednesday of 69¢. Unfortunately for Democrats, Evers lost 21¢ in the same period as he gave up a 10¢ lead and is now staring at a potential defeat in November.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

MarketWatch: “The Republican Party’s chances for taking control of the U.S. Senate after November’s midterm elections are continuing to improve, with betting market PredictIt now favoring the GOP over Democrats. Republicans reached a 52% chance of winning the Senate on Wednesday and stayed at that mark on Thursday, according to PredictIt data. That’s the highest level since Aug. 1, which was the last time that the GOP was favored.”

Breitbart: “The betting market PredictIt shows bettors are shifting their attitudes for the first time since the mid-summer and now believe the Republican Party will likely take control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections, according to the most recent predictions.”

Casino.org: “Pollsters have the race nearly neck-and-neck. The polling average on Real Clear Politics gives former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) a slight 1.2-point advantage over incumbent US Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D). The differential is within the polling margin of error. Political bettors, however, believe the Republican challenger in Nevada is the heavy front-runner. On PredictIt, the bulk of the money is on Laxalt to oust Cortez Masto from her Senate seat in DC. Laxalt’s shares of winning the election are trading at 68 cents.”

Audible Insights

A PredictIt collage.

Star Spangled Gamblers: The Three Pieces of Data This Expert Uses to Predict Elections

“Logan Phillips has become such a master of election forecasting that in less than two years, he has built his website, Race to the White House, into a powerhouse that receives millions of views each year. We invited him on to the SSG podcast to share his secrets for forecasting elections, including what pieces of data he thinks are HIGHLY VALUABLE for predicting politics, and which you can ignore.”

Ruthless: New Poll Shows Growing Wave

The fellas discuss fresh polling and Biden’s economic delusions before laughing about the latest animal news. Alek Skarlatos joins the program for an interview about his race for US Congress from Oregon's 4th District.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Battleground State Candidates Take Center Stage

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. Candidate debates are starting to heat up in the final weeks before the midterm elections in most of the battleground states. Debates are usually a chance for candidates to make their final pitch to voters, highlight their opponent’s flaws and defend any open questions about themselves. A debate can be very helpful for a candidate…or it can be detrimental.

This week we’re taking a deeper dive into what’s happening debate-wise in states with four of the top battleground states with hot US Senate and gubernatorial races – Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. And of course, we’ll look at how the markets are responding.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 14.

This Week in the Markets

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Herschel Walker (R). Courtesy Campaign Photos: Raphael Warnock & Team Herschel.

Battleground State Candidates Take Center Stage

First, in the “toss-up” US Senate race in Wisconsin, the incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Democrat challenger Mandela Barnes squared off for a second time last night. Compared to the first debate, last night showed Barnes on the offensive, eager to attack Johnson. Possibly a sign that the state’s lieutenant governor is feeling the pressure from the latest polls favoring Johnson.

Their first debate last week was a relatively boring affair, with neither candidate making big news or major waves. Johnson’s tactic is to basically mirror national Republican messaging focus of crime, public safety and economy issues, while Barnes is doing the same on the Democratic side with the issues of abortion and Johnson’s connections to former President Donald Trump.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Wisconsin in 2022?

A Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday found 52% of likely voters backing Johnson compared to 46% backing Barnes. The same poll taken in September found no clear leader, so the six-point advantage in favor of Johnson was likely a wake-up-call to Democrats. The most recent CBS News/YouGov survey gives Johnson just a one-point advantage, while the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average of the race gives Johnson a three percentage point lead over Barnes.

The shift explains Johnson’s focus on hitting Barnes on the crime issue throughout both debates, as Republicans credit the recent focus for their improving numbers in the state. Barnes attempted to rebut the attacks by questioning Johnson’s focus on crime by noting his minimization of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.

“One thing you have to do is you have to keep violent criminals in jail, and you have to support law enforcement. The problem with the whole ‘defund’ movement, which [Barnes] has been a big supporter of, is it dispirits law enforcement,” said Johnson.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?

Neither candidate was pulling punches last night. Barnes, who has previously leaned into supporting defunding police departments, but has argued during the campaign that he doesn’t support the movement.

“No police officers in this country were more dispirited than the ones who were present at the United States Capitol Hill on Jan. 6. So this talk about support for law enforcement, it’s not real, it’s not true, because he decided to play politics when the person he didn’t want to win the presidential election won,” said Barnes.

Last night’s debate was the final meeting between the two US Senate candidates ahead of November’s vote. Gubernatorial candidates Tony Evers (D), the incumbent, and Republican challenger Tim Michels will take the stage for their first and only debate tonight. RCP rates the governor’s race as a “toss up” as well with the polling average showing a dead heat.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Georgia?

Georgia’s Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and challenging Republican and former NFL star, Herschel Walker will take the stage tonight for their only scheduled debate of their US Senate campaign. The race is rated a “toss up.”

“Georgia is a piece of the overall ‘control of the US Senate’ puzzle. Both parties are in a race for 51 seats, which means that neither party can afford to give up on any seat.” said Fred Hicks, an Atlanta-based political strategist.

The debate comes at a pivotal moment in the race, especially for Walker, who could use the chance to redeem himself from the abortion scandal that has embroiled the race for the last week. Up until this month, most polls in September had Warnock and Walker in a dead heat, but Walker’s scandal-prone campaign has taken a dive since the latest allegations. RCP now gives Warnock a 48% to 45% advantage in their average.

Bloomberg Graphic: Polls show Warnock in a close race with Walker as he seeks a full six-year term as the senator from Georgia. While Walker has found an effective cudgel in tying Warnock to the unpopular Biden, his campaign has been plagued by a series of gaffes and explosive allegations.

If neither candidate wins a 50% majority on Nov. 8, the race will move to a Dec. 6 runoff election, which the polling aggregator finds is the most likely scenario.

The debate between gubernatorial candidates Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Democrat Stacey Abrams will take place Monday. The latest Trafalgar Group poll released on Tuesday gives the incumbent a nine-point advantage. While other polls this month are closer – like a Quinnipiac poll giving Kemp only 1% lead – Kemp has routinely garnered 50% or more support from voters surveyed, which unlike in the state’s US Senate race, would mean the governor is likely to avoid a runoff in his bid for a second term.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election?

Pennsylvania’s “toss up” US Senate race is also getting a lot of attention this week over an NBC News interview conducted with Democratic lieutenant governor and US Senate candidate John Fetterman that has amplified the focus on his health following a stroke he suffered in May. Anyone with a family member or friend who has had a stroke knows that the recovery can be long and is almost always an arduous recovery process, but with a majority-deciding election just weeks away, the legitimate questions remain as to whether Fetterman will be up to the job of US senator if elected. Republicans continue to push that message, with their feeling that Fetterman is not up for it, as Democrats defend their candidate.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Pennsylvania?

NBC News correspondent Dasha Burns, who agreed to an interview with Fetterman in which he would us a teleprompter aid to help with lingering auditory aphasia caused by the stroke, is in hot water with Democrats for a segment in which she discussed her meeting with Fetterman.

“In small talk before the interview without captioning, it wasn’t clear he was understanding our conversation,” said Burns.

Democrats see Pennsylvania as one of their best pickup opportunities in the country and insist that any remaining issues will not affect the job he would do as a senator. Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz and his party insist that the questions raised so far are fair.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election?

Polls have shown Fetterman leading Oz, though recent surveys have reflected a tightening race. The Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating on the race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up,” a rating shared by RCP. Fetterman currently holds a 3.4% lead in polling averages, and has never polled above 50%.

The only debate scheduled in the race will take place on Oct. 25. Fetterman has asked for accommodations such as a teleprompter and more time to answer questions during the 60-minute debate. It will be seen as a test of the Democrat’s ability to deal with the extended timeframe, but also happens to be taking place after early voting in the state has already begun.

Bloomberg Graphic: Fetterman’s adept use of social media capitalized on Oz’s wealth and out-of-state roots in the fight for the seat now held by retiring Sen. Patrick Toomey (R-PA). But the race has been tightening as Republicans have marshaled resources into the state.

Nevada stands out as the only battleground state without a debate scheduled for the US Senate race before the midterms – it’s also rated as a “toss up.” A series of recent polls show the candidates locked in a dead heat, so there is little incentive for either one to be the first to blink in their debate standoff. Debates can sometimes help candidates to define their message, but they rarely convince voters to switch sides. What’s more likely is that a candidate gets themselves into trouble with a gaffe or poor debate performance that could potentially cost them the election in a tight race.

Neither incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) nor Republican challenger Adam Laxalt are budging on the debates they agreed to participate in – none of which overlap – while each blames the other for the lack of coordination.

“The senator was eager to debate and accepted three statewide debates that, unfortunately, her opponent decided he would not participate in,” said Cortez Masto spokesperson Josh Marcus Blank.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Nevada in 2022?

“I have accepted televised, statewide debate offers with two respected, neutral Nevada media outlets: Sinclair Broadcast Group, which runs the Las Vegas and Reno NBC Stations, and Nevada Newsmakers. We hope that Catherine Cortez Masto will stop hiding and agree to at least one of them.” said Laxalt.

Laxalt has shown a slight lead in most polls since mid-September, but they’ve all been within the margin of error, putting the two candidates in a statistical tie with Laxalt carrying a 2% advantage in the RCP average, and making Cortez Masto officially the most endangered Democrat senator this cycle.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election?

Nevada’s gubernatorial race is also very close, but the candidates in that race – Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) and Republican challenger Joe Lombardo, met for a wide-ranging and mostly civil debate the first weekend in October. Lombardo is shown to have a slight advantage in most recent polling, but it’s within the margin of error.

Trade the Markets

The big news coming out of the prediction markets this week — and just 24 days until Election Day — is that the Senate control market has swung back in favor of Republicans. Closing at 52¢ on Thursday, the Republican contract was unchanged a day after taking the lead. But the Democrat contract has continued its downward trend that started on Oct. 3 — falling 10¢ and closing at 49¢ yesterday. That is the lowest price the contract has been since late July.

The crowd has also been active in the balance of power market, which has seen the odds of a Republican wave in Congress rise to 53¢ — a 17¢ increase in the last 30 days. Odds of a Democratic sweep have now fallen to 17¢ — down 9¢ in the same period of time. And there is now a 14¢ difference between the top two contracts in the market as the option of a Republican House and Democrat Senate has also fallen to a new 30-day low of 39¢.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many US Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

So what is driving the shift in mood? Republicans lead in Nevada, as we touched on at length yesterday, with Laxalt holding a 66¢ to 35¢ lead over the incumbent Cortez Masto. They are also leading in Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin. And while they are trailing in the Pennsylvania and Georgia markets — both Republican candidates have shown recent abilities to bounce back.

Oz has narrowed Fetterman’s lead in Pennsylvania to 57¢ to 45¢ as of Thursday but on Wednesday the close price of the market was 54¢ to 50¢. At Wednesday’s pricing, Fetterman’s contract was down 15¢ over a 30-day period and Oz was up 18¢ to set a new 90-day high. In Georgia, Walker’s contract has been slowly regaining ground since traders dropped him into the mid-30¢ range on the back of his most recent scandal. But the Republican has gained each day this week and closed at 42¢ on Thursday. Warnock, meanwhile, has been on a four-day losing streak that has shaved half his 16¢ gain from the scandal and saw him close at 60¢.

Another potential reason for the improved outlook for Republicans is likely coming from Arizona’s race that was a 69¢ to 36¢ contest on Oct. 4, but has now narrowed to 59¢ to 42¢.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

Luckbox: “Political uncertainty is undeniably the largest category of external financial risk you’re helpless to manage. It’s well past time we allow futures market operators and participants to blaze a trail across this final frontier.”

Yahoo! Finance: “More than a dozen plaintiffs are now part of a lawsuit seeking answers from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on their decision to withdraw No-Action Relief granted in 2014 allowing the popular election prediction market, PredictIt, to operate in the United States.”

MarketWatch: “The Republican Party’s chances for taking control of the US Senate after November’s midterm elections are continuing to improve, with betting market PredictIt now favoring the GOP over Democrats.”

Audible Insights

A PredictIt collage.

Star Spangled Gamblers: Pennsylvania for Dummies with RCP’s Charles McElwee

“The last time there was a national meltdown happening in Pennsylvania it was 1979 and the nuclear power plant at 3 Mile Island was what was getting a little bit hot. Now, 40+ years later, the meltdown is happening over politics, where a series of races in Pennsylvania will possibly determine who controls the US Senate (Oz vs Fetterman), if crazy MAGA hardos can actually win statewide (Doug Mastriano) — and if the Red Wave does not materialize, as predicted — House seats in central and northeastern Pennsylvania could be the Keystone of Democrats’ defense of Congress. With all that as a prelude, SSG is very happy to welcome back RealClearPolitIcs’s Charles McElwee.”

Ruthless: Ricketts Gets Ruthless

The fellas discuss discuss President Joe Biden’s latest gaffe and talk about the growing red wave. Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts (R) joins for an interview. And the program welcomes Thomas Peters, CEO of RumbleUp, for a conversation.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: A Crime-Heavy Message, Ill-Timed Geopolitics and Playing Nice in Florida

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. Campaigns are left with just a handful of weeks in the midterm election cycle to define their opponents and win over voters with their closing messages. Republican candidates by and large have pivoted to crime-heavy messaging and have continued to focus on immigration and a struggling economy. Democrats, meanwhile, are putting a lot of their efforts behind pro-abortion messaging, which is supported by the majority of Americans, but polls continue to show that it’s not necessarily the most important issue for voters.

We also take a look at a top geopolitical issue this week that could have a major impact on the elections – the OPEC+ decision to cut oil and natural gas output. And finally, an update on the aftermath of Hurricane Ian and how Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and President Joe Biden are working together to deliver relief to Floridians.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 7.

This Week in the Markets

Democrats Targeted as Soft on Crime Push Back

Republicans have been turning up the heat in key battleground states, blasting the airwaves with messages about rising crime rates and attacking Democrats for not being tough enough on crime. While not a new message for Republicans, the strategy seems particularly effective this year, according to reports, amid rising crime rates across the country and elevated concerns about the issue.

And it appears to be working, especially in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, where Democratic US Senate candidates John Fetterman and Mandela Barnes as well as Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) have started running defensive ads of their own pushing back and defending their credentials. A move that shows the attacks are clearly resonating with voters.

Monmouth University Poll: Democrat John Fetterman is seen as understanding the concerns of ordinary Pennsylvanians more than Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz.

According to the latest Monmouth University Poll on Pennsylvania’s US Senate race, Fetterman maintains the advantage over his Republican candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz, 48% to 43%, but the race has tightened recently. The same poll taken three weeks ago had Fetterman in a similar position with 49% support, but Oz has narrowed the gap from 39% support.

Likewise, crime messaging has taken over Wisconsin’s US Senate race, and with it, an increase in support for incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI). The Real Clear Politics polling average gave the advantage to Barnes through mid-September when the race shifted somewhat dramatically in favor of the Republican. The handicapper now gives Johnson a three-point advantage. Still a tight race, but a definite shift over a short period of time.

RealClearPolitics Graphic: Johnson has increased his lead over Barnes in Wisconsin’s US Senate race by more than two percentage points since Sept. 20.

“It’s an effective issue here and elsewhere because, simply put, homicide rates are up in most urban centers,” said political science professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll.

Meanwhile, Democrats are running ads on abortion in every possible medium in an effort to keep that issue, and the US Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision, top of voters’ minds.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: An onslaught GOP-financed crime ads have tightened some of this year’s key battleground US Senate races.

Some voters across the country have already started turning in their ballots in early voting states, and live TV debates are starting to become more frequent – including last night’s between Arizona Senate candidates Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Republican Blake Masters (more on that next week) — so the pressure is on.

Rising Gas Prices to Kill Democrats’ Momentum?

President Joe Biden delivers remarks in the East Room of the White House. Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz

Democrats have been on somewhat of a hot streak lately, with the once-publicized “GOP wave” starting to look like more of a trickle, if anything. And while Republican hopes of winning control of Congress are still very much up in the air, an announcement this week that several of the world’s largest oil-producing countries (OPEC+) will cut production by about two million barrels a day will likely benefit them politically by having the effect of raising gas prices in the US even higher. As President Joe Biden and his administration have taken steps to reduce prices at the pump over the last several months, the president’s approval rating has increased, and along with it Democrat chances of retaining some control on Capitol Hill.

A recent report by AAA showed that the average price for regular gasoline was beginning to tick up again, even before the OPEC+ announcement. Industry analysts say more increases are likely on the way. Prices increased nearly 3¢ a gallon to an average of $3.83 – the biggest one-day hike in nearly four months.

AAA Graphic: National gas prices sit at $3.89 this morning.

“The regional differences in gas prices are stark at the moment, with prices on the West Coast hitting $6 a gallon and higher, while Texas and Gulf Coast states have prices dipping below $3 in some areas. At least six California refineries are undergoing maintenance, and there is limited pipeline supply to the West Coast from locations east of the Rockies,” said Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson.

Biden has criticized the move, saying he is “disappointed,” calling it “shortsighted” and saying that it will hurt low- and middle-income countries already struggling with elevated energy prices the most. Saudi Arabia’s leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who Biden made a heavily publicized and also criticized trip to see in July as gas prices were skyrocketing, is OPEC’s de facto leader. The crown prince noted that the move was “necessary to respond to rising interest rates in the West and a weaker global economy.”

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

The messaging on oil and natural gas production is awkward for Biden and other Democrats leading up to the midterms given their push for a sharp curb in US energy production over the last two years and increased reliance on foreign oil. One of Biden’s tactics to bring down gas prices has been to release more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is already at its lowest level since 1984.

The move by OPEC sharply undercuts Biden’s efforts to avoid an increase in gas prices this close to the midterms. It also exposes a failure of his diplomatic effort over the summer.

Biden and DeSantis Play Nice

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaking at the 2021 Student Action Summit in Tampa, Florida. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

To follow up on last week’s Insights newsletter highlighting the Hurricane Ian recovery effort, which has brought together political rivals Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), they’re still going strong. Biden traveled to Florida this week and toured areas of devastation with the governor and the two held a joint press conference on Wednesday.

Biden called the governor’s disaster response “pretty remarkable” and DeSantis repeatedly thanked Biden and the entire federal response effort, before, during and after the hurricane made landfall.

“We’ve worked hand in glove. We have very different political philosophies, but we’ve worked hand in glove,” the president said. “We’ve been completely lockstep, there’s been no daylight.”

FiveThirtyEight Graphic: Hurricanes often don’t affect governors’ approval ratings.

The projected sense of unity is a good look for both leaders as they vow to continue to work together to help the hardest-hit parts of the state rebuild.

“We are very fortunate to have good coordination with the White House and FEMA from the very beginning of this,” said DeSantis.

Biden received a briefing on the response and recovery efforts from DeSantis and FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell and met with residents and small-business owners impacted by the storm. He also met with Florida Sens. Rick Scott (R) and Marco Rubio (R), who have also been publicly at odds with the president, and Rep. Byron Donalds (R). Before arriving, Biden issued an amended disaster declaration that doubled the eligibility window for fully covered federal aid from 30 days to 60 days.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: Both incumbents in Florida’s elections for governor and US Senate are in strong positions to win another term.

DeSantis, who is seeking re-election in November, could have seriously damaged his prospects if he bungled the hurricane response as we discussed last week. So far, it seems like voters are pleased with his performance and give him a solid advantage heading into the final weeks. The FiveThirtyEight polling average gives DeSantis a 6.5% lead over his Democrat counterpart, Charlie Crist.

So far there also doesn’t seem to be a lot of negative backlash for DeSantis in his working with Biden – unlike the case of then-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) when he greeted then-President Barack Obama following Hurricane Sandy.

Trade the Markets

The prediction markets tracking the US midterm elections have for the most part already experienced a shift in momentum, swinging the pendulum back in favor of Republicans — even as the flow of news, polls and other data in favor of the party in red have started to concentrate.

In Wisconsin’s US Senate market, for example, that potentially race-defining swing began exactly a month ago. Sept. 7 marks the last time the market was virtually tied at 52¢ to 51¢ in favor of the incumbent Republican senator. Since, Johnson’s contract has risen to a close price of 78¢ — a 26¢ gain in one month — and 5¢ in the last week. Barnes’ contract, meanwhile, continues to slip — losing another 4¢ on Thursday to close at a new market low of 22¢. Pennsylvania’s US Senate race shifted even earlier, as the crowd started to move Oz’s contract back on an upward trend on Aug. 24. It currently sits at 64¢ to 41¢ in favor Fetterman and the Democrats.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Wisconsin?

It’s a similar situation in the Senate control market as in Wisconsin. Over the last month, Democrat odds of keeping the Senate in their grasp has weakened — losing 10¢ to close at 57¢ on Thursday, while Republicans have strengthened to 47¢ — a 10¢ gain. The House control market has shown a little more restraint, but the same change of direction as Republicans are up 8¢ to 82¢ in 30-days time and Democrats have fallen from 29¢ to 20¢.

The overall change in the balance of power market has been slower to show a change in momentum — but it is nonetheless there as well. The current status quo situation in Congress gave up its position as the most likely outcome on Sept.23, but has kept pace — mostly — with a potential Republican sweep. With a 4¢ drop in price yesterday, the top contract erased at 48¢ to 41¢ lead on Wednesday to close Thursday at a much closer 44¢ to 42¢ margin. And yet a Republican sweep is still up 10¢ over the last the month despite yesterday’s drop.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: Will Republican soft on crime attacks and rising gas prices dent Democrat momentum in the final weeks?

With an infusion of Republican ad money and attack ads fueling much of the recent recovery — at least in the polls of key races — the question in the final weeks will be if the momentum continues to build or if it will peter out. Rising gas prices could have a major say in that equation.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

GlobeNewswire: “More than a dozen plaintiffs are now part of a lawsuit seeking answers from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on their decision to withdraw No-Action Relief granted in 2014 allowing the popular election prediction market, PredictIt, to operate in the United States.”

Casino.org: “Prediction markets are not simply a way to uncover information. They also encourage intellectual humility and civil discourse, and I don’t believe it’s outside of the realm of possibility to believe that they can play a major role in healing our fractious politics.”

Yahoo! Finance: “PredictIt traders, academic users and market technology pioneer Aristotle filed a preliminary injunction against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the purpose of allowing continued trading in existing PredictIt markets, including those tracking the 2024 presidential election, while the court considers overturning the CFTC’s order to shut those markets down.”

MarketWatch: “Betting market PredictIt puts Democrats’ chances for holding the Senate at 58%, and it gives the GOP a 78% chance of taking the House, as shown below.”

Audible Insights

A PredictIt collage.

Star Spangled Gamblers: Can Oregon Democrats Duck a Big GOP Upset?

“Oregon is a weird place. It is full of crazy granola people, right wing cults, and wine moms. Anytime you think you know what is going on there, expect a kick in the face. For example, this year’s governor’s contest. I bet you thought that it was a lay-up for the Democrats. Uhhh, think again, Chaco:”

Ruthless: How Red Is Thy Wave?

The fellas discuss Florida relief efforts and the latest economic news before welcoming two special guests to the program. Steven Law from the Senate Leadership Fund and Dan Conston from the Congressional Leadership Fund join for conversations about the midterms.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: DeSantis' Could Blow Re-Election With ‘Ian’ Misstep

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. One of the most catastrophic hurricanes in Florida history made landfall as a Category 4 storm on Wednesday and wreaked havoc on the state as it made its way northeast. While we don’t yet know the full extent of the damage or the number of lives lost, at least 2.6 million people were still without electricity Thursday morning and major infrastructure like bridges and highways in the hardest-hit parts of the state were devastated. And this isn’t the end of Ian’s devastation, as Thursday night reports had the storm regaining strength as it headed toward South Carolina’s coast.

Our thoughts are with the people impacted by the storm, but as we are a political prediction platform, we’re turning the attention of this newsletter to the effects the storm’s aftermath may have on the political environment with just six short weeks before the 2022 midterm elections. And if six weeks still feels like a long time, consider that early voting has already begun in a handful of states, with Roll Call reporting that more than 57,000 people have already cast their ballots!

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Sept. 30.

This Week in the Markets

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaking at the 2022 Student Action Summit in Tampa, Florida. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

DeSantis Could Blow Re-Election With ‘Ian’ Misstep

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) gained national recognition and became a darling of the Republican Party largely for his pushback on federal government lockdown and masking policies during the pandemic, and has continued to be a vocal critic of President Joe Biden and the Democrats’ policy agenda. He’s used a combative style of rhetoric to not only take on Washington, DC, but also the leadership styles of blue state governors (though not altogether unprovoked). But in his handling of Hurricane Ian – and what he described as 500 year-level flooding – DeSantis has taken an altogether different tone as the head of the state.

In public briefings this week, DeSantis repeatedly thanked Democrat-led states like New York and New Jersey for sending assistance, and he had kind words for POTUS for quickly lining up disaster relief.

“We appreciate the Biden administration’s consideration for the people of Florida during this time of need,” DeSantis said hours before Ian made landfall near Fort Myers on Wednesday.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?

Early in the week there was a lot made out of Biden not calling DeSantis directly, and instead speaking with several Democrat mayors. But as of Tuesday night, the two had spoken, putting to rest talk that the two’s combative relationship could impact the response to the hurricane’s devastation.

“President Biden spoke this evening with Gov. DeSantis of Florida to discuss the steps the Federal government is taking to help Florida prepare for Hurricane Ian. The president and the governor committed to continued close coordination,” said White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in a tweet.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

As the hurricane approached, DeSantis was holding multiple press briefings daily. One briefing made a particular splash when a reporter mischaracterized remarks made by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Deanne Criswell earlier in the day, which he said were about Florida’s “lax response to the storm so far.” The reporter was cut off by DeSantis saying:

“Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, give me a break. That is nonsense. Stop politicizing, ok. Stop it. We declared a state of emergency when this thing wasn’t even formed… We’ve had counties that have done a lot of hard work. And honestly, you’re trying to attack me, I get it, but you’re attacking these other people who’ve worked very hard. So that’s just totally false.”

The governor was referring to people like Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie, who was standing behind him as he briefed the press. Criswell had in fact said “I do have concerns about complacency,” in regard to the large number of new Florida residents not having lived through hurricanes before and encouraging residents in the state to “take this very seriously” and “listen to your local officials.”

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?

DeSantis, Biden and other officials have all aimed to keep partisan politics out of the conversation and instead focus on the need of Floridians to recover from the storm damage. Environmental disasters like hurricanes can have a huge impact on a politician’s standing. In Florida’s recent history, former Govs. Jeb Bush (R) and Rick Scott (R) are generally perceived to have handled the hurricanes well during each of their tenures. Alternatively, former Gov. Lawton Chiles (D) is remembered for his poor handling of Hurricane Andrew back in 1992, which tanked his standing in the polls.

On Nov. 8, DeSantis will face former Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican-turned-Democrat who most recently served in the US Congress. With the nation’s eyes on the disaster relief effort in Florida, DeSantis has an opportunity to present the image of a strong leader handling a major crisis – and able to put aside partisan politics to do so – which could further bolster national support for the governor.

“DeSantis likes being elected, and if you want to stay elected in Florida, you drop the political stuff during hurricanes,” said Kevin Cate, a Tallahassee-based media consultant.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many Republican governors will there be after the midterms?

Good and potentially bad, there will be political implications for both DeSantis and Biden in the aftermath of Ian. Remember when New Jersey’s Republican then-governor, Chris Christie, hugged then-President Barack Obama amid the devastation of Hurricane Sandy? People were still talking about it three years later as Christie attempted to win his party’s presidential nomination. How DeSantis handles a visit from Biden, if the president makes the trip, will surely be watched by the nation in much the same way.

For Biden, the disaster poses an opportunity to showcase his handling of a federal disaster response on DeSantis’ turf. But there is also a significant risk that the response could further exacerbate high inflation, a prospect that could seriously damage any Democratic advantage among the electorate in the final weeks of the campaign season.

FiveThirtyEight’s Florida Gov. Poll Aggregator: DeSantis holds a six percentage point advantage over Crist — 50% to 44%.

What are the polls saying about the Florida governor’s race? The RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average, which takes into account several public polls since Crist secured the Democratic nomination at the end of August, has DeSantis leading by 4.8%. FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator also gives DeSantis an advantage, with a 6% lead over Crist – 50% to 44%. That said, the beginning of September brought a series of polls that should worry Republicans in the state. One, from Susquehanna Polling and Research found Crist trailing DeSantis by only 4%, within the survey’s margin of error. The same poll also found Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), the Democratic Senate nominee taking on Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), running just three points behind.

Another poll, commissioned by the AARP, has DeSantis leading Crist by only 3% (again within the margin of error), while Rubio was leading with only 2% over Demings. Notably in a state with a large over-50 population, the Republican governor holds a stronger position with that demographic, according to the poll, by a five-point margin. For respondents ages 18 to 49, Crist wins 51% to 46%, so the outcome could largely depend on which demographic shows up to vote.

“Florida voters 50 and older are a critical voting demographic that all candidates are competing for in this midterm election,” said Jeff Johnson, state director for AARP Florida.

AARP Florida Poll: The Sept. 8 poll found DeSantis leading Crist by three percentage points and Rubio leading Demings by two percentage points.

The AARP poll was conducted jointly by Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democrat firm Impact Research and found that Democrats in the state tend to be more eager to vote in November than Republicans, with 93% of Democrats saying they felt motivated to vote in the midterms compared to 90% of Republicans and 82% of independents. That’s partly thanks to the intense polarization voters attribute to DeSantis.

“There’s no one who polarizes the electorate as much as Gov. Ron DeSantis, even more so than Donald Trump,” said Fabrizio.

In one outlier poll by The Political Matrix and The Listener Group, which was not included in the RCP average but was included in FiveThirtyEight’s, DeSantis trailed Crist by six points. That poll was conducted following DeSantis’ move earlier this month to send a message by flying two planes full of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, the upper-class vacation island off Massachusetts. The Listener Group conducted a similar poll in June 2021 showing DeSantis with a nearly double-digit lead over all potential Democratic opponents, but it’s hard to draw a direct comparison as that poll was so long ago and before the Democrat challenger was decided, but some reports attribute the nearly 16-point shift to the migrant stunt.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Florida in 2022?

DeSantis’ odds of winning a second term could all come down to how he conducts himself over the next six weeks and if he’ll be able to suppress any temptation there might be to shift to polarizing political rhetoric in the wake of the storm. Not to mention how the electorate will read a potential handshake, hug or fist-bump with Biden.

“If he comes through this thing, he can pretty much bank his re-election,” said Brad Coker or Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, a Florida-based consulting firm. “But if he wobbles and there are problems in the aftermath, of course, politically it can be a problem for him.”

Early voting in Florida kicks off Oct. 24.

Trade the Markets

The Florida governor’s face adorns the top of three market charts entering trading this Friday. He leads his re-election bid for governor in the Sunshine State, the 2024 Republican nomination race against former President Donald Trump and 2024 US presidential election market ahead of both the former president and the current president. The crowd likes what they see in DeSantis so far — but with less than six weeks to go until Nov. 8 there is still plenty of time for that view to sour.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: The governor’s race in Florida governor is in the spotlight, but there are 19 other governor races worth your prediction.

In his bid to defeat Charlie Crist and earn a second term, the governor leads the former governor by a wide margin — 90¢ to 11¢ — with Hurricane Ian having little impact on the crowd’s wisdom this week. In fact, DeSantis’ contract has traded at 90¢ or 91¢ for almost two weeks straight. It’s a similar equation in the 2024 Republican nomination race, where we find DeSantis is ahead of Trump 35¢ to 30¢. DeSantis’ grip on first place extends all the way to Aug. 7. No other candidate is above 5¢ with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley regularly the “best of the rest” in this market.

The 2024 US presidential election winner’s market is a tighter affair altogether with POTUS rising recently as both DeSantis and Trump contracts have stumbled over the last 30 days. Biden, in fact, is up 6¢ from his 90-day low set on Aug. 4 and has been between 23¢ and 24¢ since Sept. 18. DeSantis’ contract has been on a wilder ride — with his immigration stunt owing to a 5¢ drop between Sept. 15 and Sept. 21 — but has since recovered to take back first place at 26¢ on Thursday as Trump’s contract fell back a penny to close at 25¢.

Elsewhere, Florida’s Senate race between Rubio and Demings looks a lot like its governor’s race — with the Republican contract far out in front of its Democrat counterpart. Rubio leads Demings 89¢ to 12¢ — but that’s not the whole story. Demings and the Democrats had been on the move from the beginning of August — hitting 18¢ on Sept. 15 — an 11¢ increase on the 90-day low in July, before the crowd began to cool on Demings in mid-September. As Election Day has neared, the momentum has clearly swung back toward Rubio and the Republican contract.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

Richard Hanania: “Prediction markets are not simply a way to uncover information. They also encourage intellectual humility and civil discourse, and I don’t believe it’s outside of the realm of possibility to believe that they can play a major role in healing our fractious politics.”

The New York Sun: “The CFTC apparently believes political betting markets are some kind of threat to democracy. But this kind of betting has long been allowed in Europe. The only impact of shutting down PredictIt and others here is to move the betting action overseas or underground — with less oversight and regulation. This will likely shrink the volume of betting, which only makes these markets less efficient — to everyone’s detriment. Federal regulators would be wise to let people wager on politics and instead concentrate on rooting out real investor fraud.”

MarketWatch: “The Republican Party’s chances of taking control of the US Senate in November’s midterm elections have been bouncing back, with betting market PredictIt putting them at 45% on Monday — a level last seen on Aug. 8 and up from a low of 35% hit in late August.”

Audible Insights

A PredictIt collage.

Star Spangled Gamblers: Six Reasons Why Polls Miss with Robert Cahaly

“Everyone knows that approximately 99% of polls are fake. But very few people know why. This is a big problem if you are trying to predict who will win elections, or bet on them. So we asked the question to Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group, one of the great contrarians in the polling industry, and a rising star who has outperformed virtually every other pollster in recent elections. In fact, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight ranked him the 2nd most accurate pollster in America after the 2020 election.”

Ruthless: Biden Forgets Again

The fellas discuss Biden’s latest gaffe and Hurricane Ian’s devastation before playing King of the Hill. Jim Schultz joins the program for a conversation about his campaign for Attorney General in Minnesota.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Will 2022 Be Like 2016 and 2020?

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. As much as people cite polling results leading up to recent elections, there looms concern in the background that we are being misled by the numbers, as we were in 2016 and 2020. This week we’re looking at how both sides of the aisle and the pundits are thinking about polls this time around, and if past mistakes are having an impact.

Then we take a quick look at the issues dominating each parties’ messaging and reveal the staggering amount of money that one party is spending on their chosen message.

PredictIt is hiring! If you want to be part of the team we’d love to hear from you.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Sept. 23.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks in the East Room of the White House. Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz

Will 2022 Be Like 2016 and 2020?

Are the polls at it again? Overestimating Democratic support that is. There is a lot of weight put on polls each election cycle. Polling can have a huge influence on campaigns. Candidates and parties often use them to boost fundraising and build narratives around their campaigns that can ultimately impact the outcome of an election. Those numbers are spread by media and activists to have a sway on public opinion.

We would be remiss if we didn’t take a moment in this conversation to plug PredictIt’s data, which research has shown to be a more accurate predictor of election outcomes than competing polls. It’s also always up to date, unlike traditional polls which are backwards looking by nature.

But, in at least two of the last three national election cycles, the polls have been off, way off, and some Democratic strategists worry that trend is repeating itself again this cycle.

The New York Times Graphic: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where polls overestimated Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden and Hilary Clinton in 2020 and 2016.

According to The New York Times’ Nate Cohn, Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where polls overestimated Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden and Hilary Clinton in 2020 and 2016. One trend Cohn points to in battleground states is a link between Democratic strength today and polling error two years ago. The more polls overestimated President Joe Biden’s lead in 2020, the better Democrats seem to be doing relative to expectations this cycle, and that Democrats are posting less impressive numbers in some of the states where the polls were more accurate two years ago like Georgia, he found.

Take Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is up against Democrat nominee Mandela Barnes. Johnson ought to be favored to win for several reasons, but polling in the state has shown Barnes fairing better than expected – Real Clear Politics polling average gives Johnson a 0.5% advantage. Wisconsin was ground zero for survey error in 2020 – a fact that FiveThirtyEight thinks is driving pollsters away from the state this time around. In the end, polling overestimated Biden by about eight points, and Barnes is fairing better than expected by a similar margin.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Wisconsin in 2022?

In Pennsylvania, a recent CBS News-YouGov poll found John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for US Senate, leading Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz by 5%. In 2020, polls showed Biden leading Trump by a similar margin. Biden went on to win that state by only one point.

“Yeah, I’m nervous about the polling. I think especially Democrats have a lot of PTSD from pinning their hopes on a lot of numbers and data who national election cycles in a row and having them be woefully far off. The double concern then becomes that the places where Democrats are seeing their fortunes go up are the exact same states where things were far off before,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist.

Cohn and The New York Times point out that errors of equal scale this time around may not be surprising because most pollsters haven’t made significant methodological changes since the last election. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver challenges this assertion and the presumption that polls are biased in favor of Democrats for several reasons that you can read about here.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?

The pattern that Cohn lays out isn’t the only sign though that the polls might be off in similar ways to 2016 and 2020. Since the US Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision on abortion, pollsters are reporting lower response rates from everyone besides Democrats. Notably, both Cohn and Silver point out that polling in 2018 – the last midterm cycle – wasn’t so far off.

The takeaway? Democratic strategists say they’re instructing candidates to take positive poll numbers with a grain of salt and run through the finish line. Republicans have also had to adjust expectations from the often touted “red wave” to a post-primary landscape in which their chosen candidates are having a tougher time winning over voters in key battleground states.

The New York Times Graphic: If the polls are just as wrong as they were in 2020, the race for the Senate looks very different.

What Issues Are the Parties Running On?

Collage of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Photos: Gage Skidmore and Senate Democrats / Flickr / CC BY 2.0.

Associated Press analysis of AdImpact data this week found that Democrats have already invested more than $124 million this year in abortion-related TV ads. That’s an unprecedented amount of money on its face — almost 20 times more than Democrats spent on abortion-related ads in 2018 — and shows that the Democrats and their allied groups really are putting most of their eggs in the post-Dobbs basket.

Since the Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn the landmark federal abortion protection, about one-in-three TV ad dollars spent by Democrats and their allies have focused on abortion, mostly attacking Republican candidates. While the Republican Party has not devoted significant resources to the abortion issue, GOP Chair Ronna McDaniel and others have encouraged their party to go on the offensive by highlighting Democrats’ resistance to any limitations, a position they argue is out of step with most voters’ beliefs.

“It’s very clear that that’s the only thing that Democrats have to run on, right? They don’t run on a good economy. They can’t run on community being safer. They can’t run on education. So what are they going to do? They’re going to make everything about abortion, which means we’re going to have to talk about it as Republicans do,” said McDaniel.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

Polling throughout the summer showed that a majority of Americans disagree with the Supreme Court’s decision, and believe that some abortions should be legal on a federal level, though support changes depending on age of gestation.

“It’s a very powerful motivator. It flies in the face of everything we know voters care about – especially the voters who will decide this election,” said Jessica Floyd, president of the Democrat-allied super PAC American Bridge.

A New York Times/Siena poll released in the last week also found that 49% of respondents said that “economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living” were likely to determine their votes in November, compared with 31% who said “societal issues such as abortion, guns or democracy” as decisive for their vote. Fifty-two percent of registered voters also said they agreed with Republicans on the economy, versus 38% who said they agreed with Democrats.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?

Throughout primary season, inflation and the economy has been the top issue on voters’ minds, which is expected to benefit Republicans. This week, polls out of the battleground states Wisconsin and Georgia again found inflation to be the issue of greatest concern.

This month’s Consumer Price Index indicates that inflation isn’t slowing down as Democrats have hoped. And, while Biden’s job approval rating is improving over lows earlier this summer, some of his administration’s key message points, like his executive order on student debt relief and framing recent legislation as the “Inflation Reduction Act,” isn’t resonating with voters as he had hoped. The president didn’t even mention student debt relief in his Philadelphia speech this month touting his accomplishments.

A Census Bureau report also brought bad news on the economy this week. It showed that the typical American household saw its inflation-adjusted income fall slightly from 2020 to 2021, and that income inequality has increased for the first time in a decade.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?

Trade the Markets

As Democrats have continued to receive positive polling results of late, their has been a general shift in momentum over the past two weeks in the markets going the other direction. The balance of power market is just one such case as the top two contracts were in a virtual tie at close of trading on Thursday — 42¢ to 41¢. The shift by the crowd means that a Republican sweep of Congress is just as likely an outcome as a Republican-controlled House and Democrat-controlled Senate less than 50 days from Election Day.

The Senate control market, while still giving Democrats the edge, hasn’t been this close for a month. The Republican contract is on a four day winning streak and closed at 42¢ — a price last achieved on Aug. 17. Democrats, meanwhile, now stands at 60¢ — falling 4¢ this week. The corresponding market for control of the House has been a little more nuanced, shifting gradually over the last month 3¢ in favor of Republicans and closed on Thursday at 75¢ to 27¢.

The changes in momentum appear more dramatic at the individual race level. Perhaps none more than in Wisconsin’s Senate race, where the polls have shown a very tight race, but also where the crowd has moved Johnson and Barnes from a virtual tie on Sept. 7 to a 68¢ to 34¢ advantage for the Republican. To put that rise into perspective, Johnson is now just 4¢ off his 90-day market high from mid-July.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

Pennsylvania’s Senate race has seen Fetterman and the Democrat contract trending downward for the last 30 days after peaking at 75¢ on Aug. 23. His contract has fallen to 62¢ as of yesterday, just as Oz rose 14¢ to 40¢ on Wednesday before losing a penny on Thursday. Oz’ close price on Wednesday was the first time he’d hit 40¢ since July 25.

Finally, in Georgia’s Senate race, a place where rosy Democratic polling hasn’t been overly prevalent, the crowd truly expects a coin flip outcome. There have been three lead chances in September and the two contracts closed Tuesday at 52¢ before spending Wednesday and Thursday separated by just 1¢.

With the movement in key battleground Senate markets, the crowd now projects Republicans and Democrats to share the spoils when it comes to seats in the US Senate. The contract for 50 seats took over the market lead on Tuesday and has continued to hold a 19¢ to 18¢ advantage over the contract for 49 seats, which had been the market favorite since the beginning of August.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

Luckbox Magazine: “But much like the markets, the site’s fate is not a foregone conclusion. We hope we won’t have to close the 2024 markets prematurely, and there’s still time to get this right—to reverse this action,” Phillips said. “We’ll continue to pursue every avenue to allow political prediction markets to continue to operate. Aristotle has filed for an entity to be licensed as a DCM [designated contract market].”

Casino.org: “If contracts predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election were liquidated before their close-out event … the trading data from those contracts would be worthless from an academic perspective, foreclosing future use of the Market as a research resource,” the complaint states.

Washington Examiner: “The CFTC apparently believes political betting markets are some kind of threat to democracy. But this kind of betting has long been allowed in Europe. The only impact of shutting down PredictIt and others here is to move the betting action overseas or underground — with less oversight and regulation. This will likely shrink the volume of betting, which only makes these markets less efficient — to everyone’s detriment.”

Audible Insights

A PredictIt collage.

Star Spangled Gamblers: Robert Cahaly: How to Spot Bad Polls, Clear Winners and Predict Elections Accurately

“Prediction markets matter because polls — those things that are supposed to explain what the public wants from its government — are completely broken. Trump’s surprise win in 2016 and near victory in 2020 were enough to allow divisive conspiracy theories to run rampant in the country, thanks to the false narrative — Democrats in a blowout — that bad polls were selling. Robert Cahaly, who helms The Trafalgar Group. The polling industry was incorrect by record margins in 2016 and 2020 and the consequences were huge. He joined us today on SSG.”

Ruthless: Liberals Are Ruining Our Economy

The fellas discuss Biden’s collapsing economy and walk through the Senate map before playing King of the Hill. Dr. Mehmet Oz joins the program for an interview about his race for Senate from Pennsylvania. And Kevin McLaughlin checks in with the latest from the Common Sense Leadership Fund.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Will Immigration Be Republicans’ Answer to Democrats’ Abortion Push?

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. With the midterm election slate basically set after this week’s final primaries (we’re looking at you Louisiana!), both parties are honing in on their general election messages. We’ll take a look at how Republicans are hoping to make immigration a top issue for the next 50 days, while Democrats try to stay on messages they know can win over their voters. Then we’ll take a look at the state of the race for control of Congress.

PredictIt is hiring! If you want to be part of the team we’d love to hear from you.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Sept. 16.

This Week in the Markets

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaking at the 2021 Student Action Summit in Tampa, Florida. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Will Immigration be an Issue in November? Republicans Hope So.

Midterm primaries have officially come to an end (everywhere besides Louisiana where they hold primaries on Election Night in November) and the 2022 midterm slate is decided. That means both parties are officially fine tuning their general election messages that they expect to most resonate with voters. Democrats are largely focused on abortion and other social issues, as well an anti-MAGA message for candidates running against opponents who have aligned themselves closely with former President Donald Trump.

For Republicans, the message they’re trying to focus on is 40-year high inflation, the economy and rising crime rates across the country. Some Republican leaders of states along the southern border are also trying to bring the immigration issue to the forefront of voters’ minds and what they feel are the failed policies of President Joe Biden and his administration.

Market Data 6 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) have, over the last several months, put more than 10,000 undocumented migrants who crossed into their states from the southern border onto busses and sent them to other states. The destinations are mostly well-known sanctuary cities like Washington, DC, New York City and Chicago. The move is obviously politically-motivated, but is also meant to alleviate some of the strain that these border states have been feeling under the historic influx of undocumented migrants and the strain on their social welfare systems and communities.

This has caused quite a stir over the last few months, with elected leaders in the cities expressing outrage over the stunt. You’ll remember that sanctuary cities – where there are laws to protect undocumented immigrants from federal immigration laws — have been a major political topic in the last few election cycles, especially in response to a crackdown on illegal immigration under the Trump administration that many Democrats disagreed with.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?

The gambit seems to have come to a head this week with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) sending a two planes full of migrants to the Massachusetts resort island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Abbott sending two busloads of migrants to Vice President Kamala Harris’ home at the US Naval Observatory in Washington, DC. Abbott tweeted that he sent the busses to send a message.

“This morning, two Texas buses of migrants arrived at the Naval Observatory in DC. VP Harris claims our border is “secure” and denies the crisis. We’re sending migrants to her backyard to call on the Biden Administration to do its job and secure the border,” said Abbott.

Abbott is referencing an interview Harris did with Meet the Press last weekend where she said the border is secure and blamed the current crisis on “deterioration that happened over the last four years,” referring to Trump’s time as president. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said during a press briefing yesterday that these Republican governors are messing with the process the administration has in place to deal with migrants.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?

“We have had a process in place, there is a legal way of doing this, and for managing migrants,” Jean-Pierre said. “Republican governors interfering in that process and using migrants as political pawns is shameful, is reckless, and just plain wrong.”

It’s worth noting that part of the administration’s process has included flying and bussing migrants, including children, across the country.

This migrant maneuvering is meant to be a stunt by Republicans to cause an uproar over immigration, and it seems to be doing just that. It’s still unclear, though, if it will work in their favor in November or in the Democrat’s favor… or if it will make its way to the top issues for voters with under two months to go until Election Day.

The State of the 2022 Midterms

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) speaking with attendees at the Clark County Democratic Party's 2020 Kick Off to Caucus Gala in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

e’re now just 52 days out from the midterm elections, when control of Congress and the fate of Biden’s first-term agenda will be sealed. Here’s a look at how some of the big races are shaping up.

Political polling site FiveThirtyEight released updated numbers this week giving Republicans just a 29% chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Their model ran a simulation of the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the Senate most often and then reported a sample of 100 outcomes. It showed that Republicans won a net of at least one seat, giving them the needed number for a majority, 29 times out of 100, while Democrats kept a net of 50 seats or gained seats in 71 out of 100.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?

FiveThirtyEight attributes the outcome to potentially weak Republican candidates that came out of the primaries in some key Senate races. According to their model, Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 48 and 54 seats, which is an extremely wide range given the current 50-50 split.

All senators running for re-election made it out of their primaries, so they have an inherent advantage as the incumbent. As we mentioned above, Democrats’ chances of retaining control improved over the summer, but Republicans still need only one seat to take the majority. According to Roll Call, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) is the most vulnerable Senate incumbent with a race rating of “toss-up.” Cortez Masto’s margin of victory in 2016 was +2 and Biden won Nevada by the same margin in 2020. She’s being challenged by Republican Adam Laxalt, a former Nevada attorney general.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: Control of the Senate is likely to come down to these key races in November.

Wisconsin’s Sen. Ron Johnson (R), Georgia’s Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), Arizona’s Sen. Mark Kelly (D), New Hampshire’s Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and Florida’s Marco Rubio (R) round out Roll Call’s top six most vulnerable senators.

On the House side, 14 incumbents lost their primary bids, shifting the tilt of races in some key congressional districts. Republicans need only a net gain of five seats to take back the majority, a feat that they could easily accomplish with open seats alone, according to many estimates. Losing even one chamber of Congress will be all but a death sentence for the Democratic agenda for at least the next two years, especially as attention begins to shift toward the 2024 US presidential election.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?

Trade the Markets

With November messaging being finalized and in focus this week, we can take a look at where the key 2022 markets stand right now. In the balance of power market, a Republican sweep is up 4¢ to 38¢ since Sept. 10, while the leading contract of a Republican House and Democrat Senate is down 2¢ to 46¢ in the same time frame. The biggest move this week occurred with the Democratic sweep contract which jumped 3¢ on Wednesday to close at 26¢. The contract has since fallen 1¢, but is up 14¢ in the last three months.

Despite Tuesday’s result in New Hampshire’s GOP Senate primary, it’s been a good week for Republicans in the Senate control market. Their contract is up 3¢ to 40¢, while Democrats remain at 64¢. The last seven days for Republicans is the second sustained period of growth in the last 90 days, with the last rebound (of sorts) coming at the end of August when their contract rose from 35¢ to 40¢. The crowd projects Republicans will lose one seat in the Senate with 49 seats the top contract at 19¢ — 3¢ above the second place contract of 51 seats, which would mean a net gain of one seat and control of the upper chamber.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

The House control market was less positive for Republicans this week, and while the contract is exactly where it was on Sunday, at 74¢, the 2¢ drop from Tuesday ended a sustained period of small growth to 76¢ after hitting a 90-day low of 72¢ on Aug. 31. Democrats have shed 3¢ from their top number of 30¢ — also achieved at the end of August — but have remained steady this week with no overall change at 27¢.

Now back to the governor at the center of the immigration messaging push — Florida’s Ron DeSantis. The governor currently holds a trifecta of top positions. He leads Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist 89¢ to 12¢ in his re-election bid in the Sunshine State and Donald Trump in both the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and 2024 US presidential election. In the former, DeSantis holds a 4¢ lead over Trump, 35¢ to 31¢, and a further 31¢ over third-placed candidate, Nikki Haley. The 2024 US presidential market sees the Florida governor with a slightly bigger lead — 5¢ over Trump, who is down 2¢ since Sunday — as he sits at 28¢ this week. Biden is in third place, just under Trump at 22¢ — and exactly where he was 30 days ago.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

CoinDesk: “The CFTC action taken on Aug. 4, 2022, threatens to harm not only the value of modest investments of more than 80,000 PredictIt traders, but the quality of the anonymized data used by more than 200 academic researchers and university educators,” Aristotle wrote in an email to PredictIt traders. Aristotle is the contract service provider for PredictIt.”

Casino.org: “The lawsuit, filed in the US District Court for the Western District of Texas, called on the court to “enter a preliminary and then permanent injunction” that would allow futures markets that were set to end after Feb. 2023 – including 2024 presidential election markets – to continue.”

USBets: “PredictIt users are not taking the forced cessation of their political prediction market lying down, as some of the site’s traders and academic users and its market technology provider Aristotle International filed a federal lawsuit Friday against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).”

Audible Insights

Star Spangled Gamblers: Base Your Political Predictions on this One Piece of Data

“As you know, SSG is one of the most exclusive fraternities on the planet. Only the finest degens walk through these doors. But sometimes, sadly, they walk out. It’s been almost a year since iSavage appeared on the podcast. And for some of you who are new here, iSavage is one of the best political predictors in the history of the industry. His body of work extends back years. The bro earns. So when he barks, you better listen. That’s why it’s so exciting that he is back, opening up his trading book to all of you.”

Ruthless: It’s the Economy, Stupid

The fellas discuss the economy, Democrat efforts to change the subject and the latest in kangaroo fighting before welcoming Mark Ronchetti for a conversation about his campaign for governor of New Mexico.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Democrats Trade Doom and Gloom for November Hope

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. This week we’re looking at the results of a major poll out from The Wall Street Journal marking one more data point on the growing list of reasons this year might not be as bad for Democrats as everyone thought it would be. We’ll take a look at the polling results and some of the underlying trends that are playing a roll in the midterms just before the post-Labor Day sprint to the end.

While you’re enjoying your long weekend, take a look at some of the jobs PredictIt is hiring for! If you want to be part of the team we’d love to hear from you.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Sept. 2.

This Week in the Markets

President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House. Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz.

Mood Shift: Democrats Trade Doom and Gloom for November Hope

Democrats are entering the final weeks before November’s midterm elections in a better position than they have been all year, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll released this week. The gains are largely thanks to independent voters, improved views of President Joe Biden and higher voting enthusiasm among abortion-rights supporters following the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the benchmark abortion case, earlier this summer.

The new survey shows that Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot question, which asks which party you would support if the election were held today, 47% to 44%, which is within the poll’s 2.7 point margin of error. But that’s notably down for Republicans from the same question in March in which they held a five-point advantage. Those gains came from increased support among independents, women and younger voters, according to reports. Among independent voters, they now favor a generic Democratic candidate for Congress over a Republican by 38% to 35%, but what’s most alarming for Republicans is that they led with independents by 12% on the same question in March.

Market Data 6 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

Two months on and SCOTUS’ late-June abortion decision seems to be playing a key role in the changing political dynamic, along with other factors. According to the poll, 50% of voters think that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, a sizable majority that is up 5% from March. More than half of those surveyed said that the Supreme Court decision has made them more likely to vote, and cited it as the single most important issue in their decision to vote in November, ahead of inflation, border security, gun violence and the FBI search and seizure of documents at former President Donald Trump’s Florida home. The court ruling was especially significant among white, suburban women, who said they would back a Democratic candidate over a Republican, 52% to 40%.

“Republicans were cruising, and Democrats were having a hard time. It’s almost like the abortion issue came along as kind of like a defibrillator to Democrats,” said Republican WSJ pollster Tony Fabrizio.

WSJ Polls: The mood for Democrats and Republicans, alike, has shifted since March.

Democratic pollster John Anzalone thinks the abortion ruling, several mass shootings over the summer and news events centered around Trump including the Jan. 6 congressional hearings have all contributed to improved standing for Democrats. Biden also looks like less of a drag on his party’s candidates than earlier this year. His job performance, while still under water, is up to 45% from 42% in March.

The WSJ poll, among others, explains why many Republican candidates across the country are attempting to sidestep the abortion issue altogether on the campaign trail. As noted by The Washington Post, at least nine Republican congressional candidates have scrubbed or changed their references to Trump or abortion on their online profiles in recent months, distancing themselves from divisive topics that could cost them in the general election.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?

The survey findings add to the growing body of evidence from other public surveys, recent special election results and other analysis that suggests the fight for control of Congress is more competitive than many thought it would be. Republicans need to pick up just a few seats to take over the House – a feat that has been made slightly more challenging given the surprise special election results this week in Alaska and NY-19 the week prior. And in the 50-50 Senate, Democrats hold control through Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote.

But even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is beginning to downplay Republican expectations for the Senate, attributing his concerns to “candidate quality,” referring to a series of first-time Republican contenders, mostly “MAGA candidates” backed by Trump, who are struggling in competitive general election races against seasoned Democrats.

“There’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” said McConnell.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: Control of the Senate is likely to come down to how several first-time candidates perform in key races in November.

In March, an NBC News poll found that Republicans held a 17-point “enthusiasm” advantage over Democrats, but in August the advantage is just two points.

All is not lost for Republicans, though, if they can lead the messaging wars in the post-Labor Day sprint to November. The WSJ poll also showed that if Republicans can keep the message focused on the economy and the highest inflation in four decades, that could benefit them, with close to two-thirds of those surveyed saying the pain of higher costs makes them more likely to cast a ballot.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

Voters have turned even more pessimistic about the economy in recent months and the survey found that they trust the Republican party most to respond. Sixty-two percent said rising prices are creating strains on their budgets, which is up 4% since March, and they believe Republicans are better able to get inflation under control by a 12-point margin – and by a narrower margin they think the GOP has the better economic plan and is most able to reduce the federal deficit.

Sixty-eight percent of voters surveyed think the nation is headed in the wrong direction, which is up from the 63% recorded in March, including 73% of independents. And, while 63% said gas prices have gone down in their area, only 18% give Biden any credit for the lower prices despite his administration’s efforts. While both political parties are under water in their favorability ratings among Americans, Democrats are slightly more popular and have gained ground since March to a favorability of 44% compared with 40% for Republicans.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?

Midterm elections are traditionally viewed as a referendum on the political party holding the White House, but Trump’s continued presence, and his ability to dissuade independents and female voters in competitive districts make this election also a referendum on the former president. Favorable views of Trump have declined slightly, from 50% in March to 44%.

The Wall Street Journal poll was conducted Aug. 17-24 by Impact Research and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates with 1,313 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

Trade the Markets

Starting off with the balance of power market, traders continue to hold that Democrats will lose the House but keep or gain seats in the Senate since the first week in August. With almost 4 million shares traded, the price is at 47¢ with little change over the last week. Republicans winning majorities in both chambers remains in second place and made a slight comeback from a 90-day low of 33¢ on Aug. 23 to 38¢ Wednesday only to lose 5¢ on Thursday and end the day tying the low at 33¢. Democrats holding both chambers isn’t far behind with a 2¢ gain yesterday to close at 29¢ — a 15¢ gain since Aug. 5.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023?

The number of GOP Senate seats after the midterms is another heavily traded market, but traders still price all outcomes on the low side. With two months still to go, we can anticipate a lot of movement here. But for now, traders price Republicans losing a net of one Senate seat at 18¢, followed by keeping the status quo of 50 seats at 16¢. Third and fourth are 48 and 51 GOP seats at 14¢ and 15¢, respectively.

Giving traders other options, the separate House and Senate control markets echo the sentiment that Democrats will keep control of the Senate, potentially gaining seats, while Republicans are very likely to take control of the House. Democrats were up 2¢ yesterday in the Senate control market, which is actually a loss of 1¢ over the week, but up from 54¢ a month ago. Republicans, meanwhile, have dropped 12¢ in the market over the last 30 days and have seen their odds to win the Senate more than halve over the summer months — falling from 78¢ on June 4 to Thursday’s close of 37¢. On the House side, the gap is narrowing, but Republicans still hold a sizable advantage with 1¢ gained Thursday for 73¢ to Democrats’ 30¢.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

Roll Call: “The CFTC in 2012 rejected another proposal for political event contracts. It currently allows those offered by the Iowa Electronics Markets, run by the University of Iowa. It recently told another political market, PredictIt, to stop its operations. PredictIt is run by the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and Aristotle Inc., a US political data firm... Commissioner Caroline Pham, who joined the CFTC in April, said the agency is overstepping its authority, resulting in uncertainty in the industry.”

The Boston Globe: “If you’re tired of watching the Red Sox and you know that preseason football is about as interesting as the attorney general’s race, there is actually a service called PredictIt that allows you to buy and sell “shares” for potential local, national, and international political outcomes. As for the R.I. governor’s race, a McKee win in the Democratic primary was trading at 83 cents per share this morning. He’s been on a sharp rise since early July when his stock hit a low of 26 cents.”

MarketWatch: “Democrats’ prospects in the midterm elections have improved in recent weeks, with candidates including Oz struggling in their campaigns. President Joe Biden’s party is now expected to keep its grip on the Senate, according to betting market PredictIt, though the House of Representatives is still seen as likelier to flip to GOP control.”

Audible Insights

Star Spangled Gamblers: No, JD Vance Isn’t Blowing It In Ohio... Yet

There is a lot of fake news on the internet. And right now, depending on what your information source is, you’re hearing one of two stories about America’s greatest swing state, Ohio: Ohio is irrevocably and forever a red state, thanks to Trump, and JD Vance is going to absolutely nuke Democratic opponent Tim Ryan in the upcoming senate race... OR... Democrats are back, polls are dead-even, and former high school quarterback (and Democratic candidate) Tim Ryan is going to drive the ball right into the electoral end zone in November.

Ruthless: Crime Up, Biden Down

The fellas discuss skyrocketing crime rates and Biden’s falling poll numbers before previewing the new football season with longtime friend of the program and angry Redskins fan, Harriet Hageman, who joins for an in-studio conversation about her race for Congress from Wyoming.

The Prediction Trade: Midterm Forecasts — Can Bitecofer Best Her Last Bets?

Two years after her first appearance on The Prediction Trade, political strategist Rachel Bitecofer has returned to build on her previous appearance’s success. It’s a high bar. Last time, she correctly handicapped 10 contentious markets ahead of the 2020 election. On this appearance, Rachel takes a look at the Pennsylvania and Arizona Senate elections, House and Senate control after the midterms, and who will win the Los Angeles mayoral election.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Is Biden’s Debt Forgiveness Plan a Midterms Winner or Loser?

PredictIt is hiring! If you want to be part of the team we’d love to hear from you.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Sept. 16.

This Week in the Markets

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaking at the 2021 Student Action Summit in Tampa, Florida. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Will Immigration be an Issue in November? Republicans Hope So.

Market Data 6 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?

It’s worth noting that part of the administration’s process has included flying and bussing migrants, including children, across the country.

The State of the 2022 Midterms

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) speaking with attendees at the Clark County Democratic Party's 2020 Kick Off to Caucus Gala in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: Control of the Senate is likely to come down to these key races in November.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?

Trade the Markets

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

Audible Insights

Star Spangled Gamblers: Base Your Political Predictions on this One Piece of Data

Ruthless: It’s the Economy, Stupid

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Will Changing Political Tides Sweep Democrats to a Senate Victory?

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. The common theme in political circles of the last couple weeks is that the tide for the midterms appears to be shifting in favor of Democrats. This week we’re looking at how the actions of the two major organizations in charge of electing Republicans to the US Senate appear to be confirming that they have reason to worry.

We’ll dig into examples of a few key states as well — Ohio, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona — which all have Republican Senate candidates backed by former President Donald Trump.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Aug. 19.

This Week in the Markets

Blake Masters speaking with attendees at the “Rally to Protect Our Elections” in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Will a Changing Political Tide Allow Democrats to Keep Hold of the Senate?

There are 12 weeks to go before the November midterm elections and the majority of the competitive primaries are behind us (with the exception of the US Senate primaries in New Hampshire). In a recent column, Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report described the current moment as “weird” because we are “not at all certain exactly which way the wind is blowing or for that matter, how strongly.”

“It still seems doubtful that things have changed enough to save the Democratic majority in the House… In the Senate, things have gotten much more interesting,” Cook said.

Democrats in Congress have been on a rare winning streak lately and their candidates have been buoyed by a well-timed improving political environment. For the most part, Democrats have also proven that they’re able to run ahead of President Joe Biden’s approval ratings, which has been underwater for almost a year and hit all-time lows in July, but has since rebounded up a few points this week.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

Recent Politico/Morning Consult generic congressional ballot polling has also shown Democrats maintaining an advantage over Republicans – with the most recent giving them a four-point lead. To reiterate Cook, this may not be enough for Democrats to hold a House majority, but it could be enough to keep de-facto control of the Senate (or even gain a seat).

Republican hopes for the Senate rest mainly on candidates pulled across the finish lines of their primaries by former President Donald Trump, like “Hillbilly Elegy” author JD Vance in Ohio, celebrity surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, former pro football player Herschel Walker in Georgia and hedge fund billionaire-backed Blake Masters in Arizona. And for the most part they appear to be struggling in their general elections.

That’s what makes news this week out of two organizations charged with electing Republicans to the Senate so interesting. The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the super PAC connected with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), is pumping $28 million into TV and radio ads in Ohio to bolster Vance’s campaign. That’s on top of the $150 million SLF has already reserved across the country in the post-Labor Day rush to the finish line.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Ohio in 2022?

The move is seen as a reflection of the deepening concerns of Republicans about the Ohio seat. Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) holds a significant fundraising advantage over Vance and has spent the summer pushing the narrative that Vance is too extreme and Ryan as the pragmatic candidate.

“Tim Ryan has been living a lie, spending millions unopposed to sell voters on a version of himself that doesn’t square with reality,” Steven Law, president of the Senate Leadership Fund said in a statement. “That’s about to change as Ohioans get a clear picture of the real Ryan, who votes down the line with Biden and Pelosi in Washington.”

It’s a huge escalation from the roughly $5 million that national Republican groups have spent in Ohio so far this cycle, and is seen as a sign that Republicans view the state as one of the most competitive, which has been echoed by polling. Ohio follows only Georgia ($37.1 million) and Pennsylvania ($34.1 million) for the biggest SLF spend. And is directly ahead of North Carolina with $27.6 million. University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently ranks Ohio’s Senate race as “likely Republican.”

“It’s worth noting that maybe in October, Republicans feel better about this, and SLF cuts back its spending. That’s happened before [in other states in previous years]. They don’t necessarily have to spend all this money. But to me, it’s a red flag that they really are worried,” said Kyle Kondik, political analyst for Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

This week also brought news that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is canceling millions of dollars of ad spending. The cuts total $13.5 million since the beginning of the month and come as primaries are wrapping up in competitive states across the country.

Since Aug. 1, the NRSC has cut ad buys in Pennsylvania ($7.5 million), Arizona ($3.5 million), Wisconsin ($2.5 million) and Nevada ($1.5 million), according to AdImpact.

“People are asking, ‘What the hell is going on?’” one Republican strategist working on Senate races told Politico. “Why are we cutting in August? I’ve never seen it like this before.”

Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), NRSC Chair announced earlier this year that the campaign committee would be spending sooner than in years past in order to not give Democrats unchallenged air time through the summer, but the cuts at this point in the campaign cycle are giving some pause for thought. The NRSC has already spent $36.5 million on TV this cycle, as opposed to their Democratic counterpart, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which has spent $1.9 million.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Arizona in 2022?

“We’ve been creative in how we’re spending our money and will continue to make sure that every dollar spent by the NRSC is done in the most efficient and effective way possible,” said Chris Hartline, NRSC spokesperson. “Nothing has changed about our commitment to winning in all of our target states.”

People familiar with NRSC spending say they are simply swapping how they’re spending money on independent expenditures and coordinated campaign spending, which each have different rules about how much can be spent and what can be said. But the numbers indicate that the NRSC has cut significantly more spending than it has booked back. Second-quarter filings showed the DSCC had nearly twice the cash on hand as its Republican counterpart — $53.5 million to $28.5 million.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?

Already seen as one of the most vulnerable states for Republicans, Pennsylvania this week saw a ratings change from The Cook Political Report from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” Multiple polls show Oz trailing Democratic candidate John Fetterman by double digits. Oz’s attempts to turn the attention of the electorate towards Fetterman’s trust fund upbringing have been largely unsuccessful and have ended up starting a public discussion of his own extensive property holdings. Fetterman is back on the campaign trail, in a limited way, after suffering a stroke just before the state’s primary election.

In Georgia, voters are experiencing an ad playing this week with soundbites of Walker’s ex-wife recalling how he once held a gun to her head. This is the latest hit to Walker’s gaffe and scandal-ridden campaign that has him consistently running behind incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and notably, behind Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who is expected to win his rematch against Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams in November.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Georgia in 2022?

Sen. Mike Kelly (D-AZ) was once seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, but polls in Arizona’s Senate race – including a recent GOP internal poll – suggest he’s pulling away from the Trump-endorsed Masters. Masters is one of the more polarizing candidates this cycle and Democrats have been blasting the airwaves with anti-Masters messages all summer.

The Republican advantage that they seemed to have earlier this year has largely been erased and control of the upper chamber has moved into toss-up territory, thanks to Trump-backed, first-time candidates seen as weak in key races across the country.

“Having amateur candidates who’ve never run for office before carrying the banner for the Republican Party in critical Senate races is a risky maneuver. The list is quite lengthy of Senate seats lost by weak Republican candidates even in good Republican years,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres to The Washington Post.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?

Some Republicans are criticizing Scott and the NRSC for opting out of getting involved in Republican primaries this year, but supporters of the move say that meddling in primaries wastes time and money and backfires as often as it works. In a few short weeks we’ll know if that gamble has paid off.

Trade the Markets

The big movement in the markets this week can be traced directly to the Senate control market, which saw the Democrats jump 5¢ on Thursday to close at an all-time high of 64¢. That makes for a 35¢ increase for Democrats since the Roe v. Wade decision by the US Supreme Court around mid-June. It also means the momentum continues to surge toward Democrats keeping control of the upper chamber of Congress when all is said and done this November.

Republicans have recovered slightly after bottoming out at 40¢ on Aug. 12 and closed Thursday at 42¢. But that remains a significant drop from the 78¢ the contract traded at on June 20 in the control market. The number of seats to be won by the GOP this fall in the Senate is a tight race. As it stands, the crowd sees 49 seats won at 18¢, followed by 50 seats or 48 seats, both of which are at 17¢. This pricing suggests the race for Senate control is very likely to go to the wire with Georgia predicted to be the closest election this fall at 19¢.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: Which 2022 Senate race will be the closest?

Democrats lead three of the four individual races we discussed above with Ohio the lone outlier. And despite the spending alarm bells ringing, the crowd is still backing Vance to defeat Ryan this fall at 73¢ to 29¢ even if they’ve shrunken the margin recently. Ryan’s contract has nearly doubled since the start of July, while Vance has seen a drop from a once lofty 85¢ over the same time period. In Georgia, Warnock leads Walker by 59¢ to 43¢, with the two-week trend favoring the Republican candidate after his contract bottomed out at 40¢. Warnock is down 4¢ from his market high of 63¢, but nearly 20¢ up from his market low over the past three months.

Fetterman’s contract in Pennsylvania’s Senate race just keeps growing, while Oz’s keeps falling. Not being on the campaign trail has had no adverse impact on the Democratic lieutenant governor’s contract. Instead, he set a new market high of 75¢ this week and is up 23¢ over the last three months. Oz, meanwhile, peaked in early June at 56¢, but is now at half that price — a market low for contract. In Arizona, as it became increasingly clear that first-time candidate Masters would be the likely Republican nominee, the party contract in the corresponding general election market tracked downward. Republicans are now down 25¢ in three months, bottoming out at 37¢ on Aug. 12. Kelly and the Democrats are now consistently trading in the low-60¢ range, having set a three-month high of 65¢ on Aug. 7.

All in all, the trends are continuing to push Democratic contracts up, while Republicans are having a summer to forget. A Republican sweep of Congress was once priced at 76¢ in the balance of power market. It is now at 40¢, while a Democratic sweep continues to rise and hit a new high of 23¢ this week.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

Slate: “Many topics in politics command broad but mostly shallow attention; the theory behind PredictIt is that betting markets incentivize deep, reliable knowledge that can cut against—and outperform—popular perception. After all, the thinking goes, real people will lose real money if their predictions prove wrong.”

Wake Forest University: “Wake Forest economics professor Koleman Strumpf has 25 years of experience studying political futures markets – where investors try to anticipate trends and long-term changes. In this Q&A, he explains political futures and why closing PredictIt may be problematic.”

American Greatness: “PredictIt lets everyone see what everyday Americans, rather than just “experts,” think about future political events, without filtering those opinions through potentially biased pollsters. This makes the site a valuable resource.”

Audible Insights

Star Spangled Gamblers: Yikes! Trump (& PredictIt) Raided By the Feds

The entire world is caving in. This past week, former President Donald Trump got pinched by the Feds and so did PredictIt. And with rumors flying about national security secrets being stolen (and stored) in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago’s basement, this Trump scandal is starting to feel different.

Ruthless: Red Wave Rolls On

The fellas discuss Liz Cheney's primary defeat and the latest sports news before welcoming longtime NBC Sports reporter Michele Tafoya for a conversation. Pollsters Glen Bolger and Jarrett Lewis join to discuss the latest survey data.

Election Profit Makers: I’m At Wegner’s, My Wife Wants Some Vegetables For Crudité

Jon cries from all the lasers. David shares an Ohio billboard update.

The Prediction Trade: This Part-time (Profitable) Political Trader Shares His Midterm Bets

If you can trade it or bet on it, you can bet we’ll talk about it: elections, entertainment, politics, pop culture, sports, weather, economic events and the financial markets. Now that you can bet on almost anything, nothing is off limits for The Prediction Trade, the show by prediction market traders for prediction market traders.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Did the FBI Just Bolster Trump’s MAGA Movement?

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) raid on former President Donald Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida is the top headline this week. The biggest question we’re interested is how the news will impact the November midterm elections – and how it may have already impacted primaries this week.

Then, just for kicks, we take a quick look at the status of the 10 Republican representatives who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 with an eye towards Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-WY) primary battle next week.

*Market prices updated as of 6 a.m. EDT on Friday, Aug. 12.

This Week in the Markets

Then-President Donald Trump speaking at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Photo: NASA / Bill Ingalls / Flickr / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

Did the FBI Just Bolster Trump’s MAGA Movement?

The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) search of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and seizure of documents on Monday has dominated headlines this week and added fuel to the growing partisan fire ahead of November’s midterm elections and potentially beyond.

The latest turn in the story came Thursday afternoon with Attorney General Merrick Garland’s announcement that the Department of Justice (DOJ) is seeking to unseal two key documents: the search warrant that authorized agents to enter Trump’s home and the inventory of what they found.

The former president said on his social media platform Truth Social late Thursday that he wouldn’t oppose the release of the court documents, encouraging their “immediate release,” while adding he viewed the process as partisan. Trump announced the FBI search on his social media on Monday.

90-Day Candle Chart at 6 a.m. EDT: Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023?

The dispute apparently has its genesis in efforts by the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) to retrieve material that it believed Trump had wrongly taken with him at the end of his presidency. The sensitivity of the material remains unclear. If it turns out the documents fall under the government’s tendency to over-classify, the DOJ will face an uproar about overreach. But that seems unlikely given Garland’s announcement today.

Depending on if those documents are unsealed and what we learn from them could drastically change the conversation, but at least for now the act seems to be benefiting Trump and his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) primary candidates and proving that the former president’s standing in the GOP is still incredibly strong.

Trump 30-Day Candle Chart: Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

We got our first glimpse of that this week as Republicans across four midterm primary states rushed to defend the former president. In Connecticut, Trump’s endorsed US Senate candidate, Leora Levy, beat the state party’s endorsed candidate after calling the FBI search an “assault on our freedom and our liberty.” And Republicans who weren’t immediately rushing to Trump’s defense were taking hits for it.

On Tuesday morning, Tim Michels, the Trump-backed businessman who defeated former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) in Wisconsin’s Republican gubernatorial primary said on Twitter “if the federal government can do this to a former president, imagine what they can do to you. People are right to be concerned. Rebecca Kleefisch is wrong to stay silent.” Kleefisch responded that the FBI search and seizure was “shocking,” but went on to lose the primary to Michels.

Final Market Data: Trump-endorsed candidates in Wisconsin and Connecticut Republican primaries won as they raced to defend the former president after Monday’s FBI raid.

So far, the raid has helped boost Republican fundraising and – if it remains an animating force – could help with turnout in the fall. But its impact on the results is up for debate. The general thinking among Republican strategists has been that Trump would wait until after the midterms to announce a third presidential run so the party can focus public attention on the economy and failures of the President Joe Biden administration – a message that is resonating with swing voters who separated from the Republican Party over their dislike for Trump. But this brings the spotlight back on the former president and could spur him to make his presidential announcement sooner, according to reports.

The FBI’s actions have also – for now – rallied Republican support once again behind Trump as the top candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination in the (more than likely) event that he decides to run for a third time. This complicates things for what had been a growing list of potential Republican contenders in recent months.

“This is a brazen weaponization of the FBI by Biden’s DOJ against his political opponent,” tweeted Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), a member of the House Republican leadership.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

Even former Vice President Mike Pence, who has been a rumored 2024 contender and has been on the opposite side in several high-profile Republican primaries this year, voiced his concern about the search:

“I share the deep concern of millions of Americans over the unprecedented search,” tweeted Pence.

What does this mean for Democrats? Well, the timing isn’t great as they had been enjoying a purple patch of late – their first in months. They passed, or are on the cusp of passing, several key pieces of legislation — including the “Inflation Reduction Act” and the CHIPS and Science Act, US forces killed Ayman al-Zawahiri — the leader of al Qaeda and a key planner in the 9/11 attacks, and there are some signs that inflation could be finally leveling off.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?

The president’s approval rating also rose to its highest level in two months in a Reuters-Ipsos poll released this week, with the increase coming mainly from Democrats approving of his job performance. Biden’s approval among Democrats rose 9% from last month to 78%, according to the poll, which included 1,005 adults and has a credibility interval of four points. The poll also found that only 12% of Republicans approve of Biden’s performance. The president’s approval rating hit its lowest point in May at 26% and has remained below 50% since August 2021, according to Reuters-Ipsos.

The raid also comes as the House select committee investigating Trump’s actions surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol had revealed damaging testimony from Republicans about Trump’s actions that were seeming to weaken the former president and make room for others to emerge as potential party leaders.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

Democratic officials have mostly stuck to law and order messaging when addressing the FBI actions. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) described the motivation as “the facts and truth, facts and law, that’s what it’s about.” The FBI has never before executed a search warrant on the residence of a former president, let alone one who has publicly indicated that he might run for the office again.

Republicans are still seen as heavily favored to win the majority in the House, while the Senate majority is seen as a tossup at this point.

Trade the Markets

Trump’s odds of being the 2024 Republican presidential nominee fell 3¢ to 32¢ on Monday as news of the FBI’s raid on Mar-a-Lago echoed across America. The pricing marked the lowest the former president’s contract had been since he dipped to 31¢ back at the end of June. Trump has been in a longstanding duel with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who was quick to back the former president over the raid this week, at the top of the market and the pair now sit at 34¢ and 39¢, respectively. Pence, who has been voiced as a potential 2024 candidate and backed Trump earlier this week as well, is up to 5¢ this morning to put him in a tie for fourth with former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?

Odds of the former president making his presidential intentions known before 2023 rocketed upward 8¢ on Monday to close at 51¢ and have since gone up another 4¢ this week. While, not a 90-day high — his contract is 4¢ shy of that, his contract was as low as 41¢ as recently as Aug. 5 and spent much of May and June under the 40¢ mark.

Trump’s contract in the 2024 US presidential election winner’s market dropped 4¢ on Thursday as the crowd digested what might be revealed from the unsealing of the search warrant and the inventory list. That means Trump now trails DeSantis by 5¢ — 30¢ to 35¢ in early trading and is just 5¢ ahead of Biden, who’s contract has been trading around the 20¢ mark for the last month.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: More 2022 midterm markets tracking where the crowd stands right now.

Biden’s contract in the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee market hit a 30-day high on Monday of 34¢ as the collective “potential competition” — Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) — saw their contracts stay steady at 15¢.

Democrats overall have a lot to be excited about when it comes to the current trends in the prediction markets. The most notable contract is likely to be a “Democratic sweep” of Congress in the balance of power market, which has continued to climb. It is up 6¢ over the last seven days, closing at 20¢ on Thursday, and has doubled in price over the last three months. A “Republican sweep,” meanwhile, has almost halved since hitting 76¢ on June 30, closing another all-time low on Thursday of 39¢.

The House control market has seen the Democratic contract tack on 10¢ in August and now stands at 24¢, while the corresponding Senate control market had a 4¢ gain to 59¢ for Democrats this week alone.

Cheney’s Last Stand

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) speaking with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in the background. Photo: Rep. Liz Cheney / Cheney.house.gov / CC BY-SA 4.0.

Cheney Makes One Last Appeal to Wyoming Voters Before Tuesday’s Judgement Day

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) made a final appeal to primary voters ahead of next Tuesday’s election, where she doubled down on her message that Trump’s claims about the 2020 election being stolen are dangerous to America.

Cheney has been one of the most outspoken elected officials against the former president since 2020 and is one of two Republicans on the House select committee investigating the events surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

The three-term representative from Wyoming faces a Trump-backed challenger in Harriet Hageman, and the polling doesn’t look good for the incumbent. A Casper Star-Tribune poll released last week showed Hageman with a commanding lead – 52% to 30%.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?

As for the rest of the 10 GOP House members who broke party lines to vote for impeachment in the wake of Jan 6, very few will be returning to Washington next year. Last week, Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI), a first-term congressman was ousted by John Gibbs, a former Trump administration official who campaigned on his support for the former president. Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC) lost his renomination bid to South Carolina state Rep. Russell Fry, who had Trump’s endorsement, in June and Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler (R-WA) became the latest casualty, missing out on a top-two finish to a Trump-backed rival, Joe Kent, and the top vote getter who was a Democrat. Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), John Katko (R-NY), Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH) and Fred Upton (R-MI) all opted not to seek re-election.

So far, only two pro-impeachment House Republicans have survived their dates with Trump-backed opposition: Reps. Dan Newhouse (R-WA) and David Valadao (R-CA).

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: How many of the 2021 GOP Trump impeachers will be re-elected?

Also on the ballot next week is Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), one of seven GOP senators who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment, and the only one of those seven to be up for re-election this year. Alaska’s new election rules created a ranked-choice voting system in which the top-four candidates will advance to the November election. That means she doesn’t have to defeat her Trump-backed opponent Kelly Tshibaka outright on Tuesday in order to move on.

Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming races, Trump will likely have fewer detractors in Congress next year.

Trade the Markets

Cheney has been able to see the writing on the wall for some time as her odds of remaining Wyoming’s lone representative to the House have been on a life support for many months, with the decision to accept the vice chair position on the House select committee investigating Jan. 6 events playing a pivotal role. She stands at 5¢ to win the at-large primary — having not been above 20¢ since mid-May and sees Hageman as the heavy favorite to take over representation of her seat at 97¢ in the overall market. The crowd is also predicting that she will garner less than 29% of the vote at 35¢, which would be a severe blow to three term congresswoman who won with roughly 69% of the vote in 2020.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Alaska and Wyoming primaries feature on Tuesday, Aug. 16 with Cheney and Murkowski, two Trump impeachers ready to face the music.

Odds are brighter for Murkowski as Alaska’s new voting system means she is likely to at least get to the final four. That said, she isn’t a slam dunk at 69¢ and is down 5¢ since Monday to win re-election. The crowd also believes that her Trump-backed competition is a better choice when it comes to who will win the most votes in the Senate primary on Tuesday. Tshibaka sits at 94¢ in that market with Murkowski at just 7¢.

There are four other Alaska markets in-play next week, all focused on Alaska’s at-large House special election that features former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and two other candidates.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

Star Spangled Gamblers: “What our community of forecasters has done is validate the merits of prediction markets, not just as a way to make some money, but also as a forecasting tool.”

Politico: “The CFTC’s move may not mark the end of PredictIt entirely, though. In October, Aristotle filed a proposal with the regulator to launch a designated contract market of its own, a proposal that if granted would allow the exchange to launch event contracts in a similar way Kalshi does today.”

The Wall Street Journal: “PredictIt, a website that allows users to profit by forecasting future events, said last week that its regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, will withdraw PredictIt's authorization to operate as of early next year. The move is a blow to fans of real-world applications of the efficient-markets hypothesis, a theory that market prices are the best possible reflection of collective wisdom about how the future will unfold.”

CoinDesk: “Eight years ago, the CFTC issued a no-action letter – a document that says the regulator wouldn’t make trouble about something that might not otherwise meet existing rules – to Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, the site’s operator. PredictIt was able to take wagers from its “traders” on such open questions as the future Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, whether the U.S. Senate will pass a reconciliation bill by Sept. 2 or whether Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) will seek the White House.”

Audible Insights

Star Spangled Gamblers: PredictIt CEO: We’re Not Quitting

Late last week, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered PredictIt to wind-down its operations by Feb. 15, 2023. This was a major setback for traders, academics, and industry professionals alike.

But, it’s not all bad news. Here to answer your questions is PredictIt’s founder and CEO, John Phillips.

Ruthless: Inflation, FBI Raid and Sen. Tim Scott

The fellas discuss inflation, the FBI raid on Mar-a-lago and the latest animal news before playing King of the Hill. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) joins the program for a conversation about his new book and more.

Election Profit Makers: Who Rides The Wrecking Ball Into Our Guitars?

Jon and David discuss the end of PredictIt.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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Predictable Insights: Democrats Take Control

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. Democrats have enjoyed a very good week so far as they’ve collected victories of various sizes in Kansas and in the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans are struggling with an internal battle that could see them miss out on a historical opportunity to flip the script on Capitol Hill.

We’re diving straight into the week’s big moments, the upsides and the downsides for both parties and what the markets are saying as trader sentiment makes a big move in favor of the team in blue.

*Market prices updated as of 7 a.m. EDT on Friday, Aug. 5.

This Week in the Markets

President Joe Biden holds a press conference Thursday, June 30, 2022, at the NATO Summit at IFEMA Madrid. Official White House Photo by Carlos Fyfe.

The Momentum Continues to Shift Toward the Democrats

Until recently, Democrats had resigned themselves to a brutal result in November’s midterm elections, with soaring inflation, signs of an impending recession and dismal approval ratings for President Joe Biden threatening to wipe out their razor-thin majorities in Congress.

But the party can see an unexpected glimmer of hope, at the very least, in the Senate, where a roster of Republican candidates backed by former President Donald Trump is struggling to raise money in some of the country’s most competitive races.

After this week, Democrats are buzzing, or at the very least, like where their odds are trending. Republicans meanwhile, are facing more of a mixed bag of emotions with the two wings of the party clearly at war with each other.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

On Tuesday, Democrats secured a major victory in Kansas after voters in traditionally conservative Kansas overwhelmingly backed a measure protecting abortion rights. Biden hailed the vote as the direct result of outrage at the US Supreme Court’s decision in June to repeal a woman’s constitutional right to obtain an abortion. On Capitol Hill, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) boasted of the political winds “blowing at Democrats.”

The Kansas vote, however, suggests that threats to abortion rights may energize Democrats in a way few political leaders can. And it comes at a moment when the party is gaining momentum on other fronts, including a legislative package to reduce prescription drug prices, combat climate change and raise taxes on corporations.

On Thursday evening, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) announced she was ready to do a deal with Schumer that could pave the way for Democrats to pass their budget reconciliation package, finally. While the bill won’t be the $3 trillion climate, tax and spend behemoth it started out, the “Inflation Reduction Act” — if passed — would be a win for Democrats and the Biden Administration at the right time.

“Tonight, we’ve taken another critical step toward reducing inflation and the cost of living for America’s families. The Inflation Reduction Act will help Americans save money on prescription drugs, health premiums and much more,” said Biden.

Market Prices at 7 a.m. EDT: Will the Senate pass a bill via reconciliation by Sept. 2?

There has also been a controversial move by Democrats that has produced results on the campaign trail this summer. In Tuesday’s Republican primary for Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, freshman Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI), who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 , 2021, riot at the US Capitol, lost to John Gibbs, a former Department of Housing and Urban Development official who had former Trump’s backing. With redistricting making the 3rd more favorable for Democrats, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) sought to boost Gibbs by purchasing TV ad time — and it worked.

This wasn’t the first time Democrats had waded into a Republican primary to enhance their odds this fall. Maryland’s Republican primary for governor saw a heavy infusion of Democratic money backing Trump’s preferred candidate in hopes of pushing him over the line against a more moderate contender. And in Illinois, Gov. JB Pritzker (D) spent over $20 million backing a Republican rival in the GOP primary.

Of course, the challenge for Democrats now will be to maintain the energy for several more months and defy trends that typically trip up the party in power. Recent history suggests the party controlling the White House almost always suffers deep losses in the first midterm election of a new presidency. Not to mention, an overwhelming majority of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction amid inflation and other economic concerns.

And even with abortion-related momentum, many Democratic strategists privately expect to lose the House majority and believe the Senate is essentially a coin flip. Abortion rights supporters surged to the polls in Kansas, where abortion was quite literally on the ballot, winning by a roughly 20-percentage point margin and showcasing turnout on par with a governor’s general election contest.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EDT: Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?

But few elections this fall will feature such clear stakes for abortion rights. Just four states — California, Michigan, Vermont and Kentucky — are expected to feature a Kansas-style abortion referendum on the November ballot, according to the pro-Democratic group EMILY’s List. In the majority of states, Democrats must convince voters they can protect abortion access only by defeating anti-abortion Republican candidates at the state and federal level.

Another element to consider for Democrats is the growing Black voter dissatisfaction that could have an outsized impact on the party. The Hill reports that organizers are warning Democrats not to take Black voters for granted ahead of the midterms, worried that the party isn’t listening to the community’s concerns. The growing frustration within the community comes amid signs that President Biden’s support among Black voters could be eroding. While a Washington Post-Ipsos poll released in June found that Black voters’ approval of the president remains the highest among most demographics, it also found signs they were less enthusiastic about him this time around.

A New York Times-Siena poll released in July showed that Black voters were growing increasingly pessimistic about the American political system’s ability to solve the nation’s problems. The numbers could serve as a warning to Democrats, who were bolstered in 2020 by Black voters, a demographic that has remained overwhelmingly loyal to the party. And adding to their concerns is a renewed effort by Republicans to court Black — as well as Hispanic and Asian — voters ahead of the midterms.

Market Prices at 7 a.m. EDT: How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?

While Democrats very clearly have something to smile about after this week, Republicans are still trying to figure things out up and down the ballot — with very mixed results.

In the Senate for example, we find in four of the battlegrounds — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona — Democratic candidates outraised their Republican counterparts to the tune of roughly $60 million in total in the first half of the year. Sarah Longwell, a Republican strategist who conducts focus groups of the party’s voters, said the fundraising numbers reflected broader concerns about the candidates, in particular their decision to align themselves towards the extreme, pro-Trump wing of the party. At least two have echoed Trump’s claim that the 2020 election was stolen

“They’ve got these candidates that are kind of outside of the mainstream that I think are going to make what would be — in this difficult environment for Democrats — incredibly winnable [contests] now very competitive. And it’s not just Senate races. It’s the governor’s races too,” said Longwell.

Financial Times Graphic: Alarm bells are ringing for Republicans in key battleground states as Democrats’ continue to rake in the grassroots fundraising cash.

The choice of candidates, amongst other political headwinds, is fueling a fundraising gap that extends down to the grassroots level where the Democrats’ ActBlue is widening its advantage over the Republicans’ WinRed even further by receiving more than double the contributions of its Republican equivalent. Grassroots Democratic fundraising has been particularly strong in Pennsylvania, where contributions reached a record high of about $470,000 in one day at the end of June. In this more promising environment, Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, said more Democrats were slowly beginning to imagine a scenario where the US House of Representatives was also in play.

“The Republicans have all these crazy candidates, reminding voters how extremist they are. All of these things together could remind the anti-MAGA majority that voted in very large numbers in the last two elections... why they voted against the Republicans,” said Rosenberg.

Market Data at 7 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?

Part of the problem also lies in the fact that Trump’s endorsement has been — more often than not — a key factor in helping candidates win their party primaries even as they might be seen as a major hinderance in the general election races. Kari Lake, a former news anchor who walked away from her journalism career and was embraced by Donald Trump and his staunch supporters, is the latest example of that as she won the Republican primary for Arizona governor on Thursday. Lake’s victory was a major blow to the GOP establishment that lined up behind businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson in an attempt to push their party past the chaotic Trump era. Republicans now enter the general election sprint with a slate of nominees closely allied with Trump who deny that Biden was legitimately elected president.

The results in Arizona on Tuesday reiterated Trump’s power within the GOP as longtime party stalwarts get increasingly bold in their efforts to reassert control ahead of the next presidential campaign. Former Vice President Mike Pence, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) all campaigned for Robson in the days before the election.

“There’s a MAGA establishment now. You still can’t say the election was free and fair and be competitive in any of these [primary] races,” said Longwell, referring to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan.

Associated Press Graphic: Trump-aligned challengers are ousting GOP legislative incumbents at an alarming rate.

The battle for the Republican soul is perhaps even more apparent further down the ballot where 27 states had held legislative primaries or conventions before Tuesday. In those, at least 110 Republican incumbents and 33 Democrats had been defeated. The Republican loss rate of 7.1% far exceeded the Democratic rate of 2.8%. It also significantly exceeded the 3.6% average Republican incumbent loss rate over the previous decade in those states, as well as the 4.4% Republican loss rate in those states during the last redistricting election cycle in 2012.

The Republican losses continued to mount Tuesday, as Trump-endorsed candidates ousted incumbent state senators in Arizona and Michigan and a conservative challenger beat the assistant majority leader of the Missouri Senate. In many cases, Republican lawmakers are being defeated by challengers portraying themselves as more conservative on election integrity, transgender policies, school instruction and other hot-button issues.

“I see it as a challenge the Republicans are going to have: How do they narrate to unaffiliated voters?” said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Republican strategist who left the party during the Trump era.

Market Prices at 7 a.m. EDT: Democrats lead three of the four key battleground states with Senate races this fall.

Trade the Markets

Starting with Thursday evening’s news of a deal between Sinema and Schumer that could pave the way for a reconciliation bill hitting the president’s desk in the very near future. The contract tracking this outcome rose another 14¢ on Thursday to close above 90¢ for the first time in the market’s lifetime and up nearly 30¢ this week as Democrats edged closer to their biggest political win since they secured the bipartisan infrastructure bill last fall.

This week also saw further big moves in trader sentiment that kicked off at the end of June with the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision. Most notably, the balance of power market saw for the first time a new contract at the top of the pile as a “Republican House, Democratic Senate” finally overtook the Republican sweep contract, closing Thursday at 48¢ to 45¢. That makes a 5¢ increase alone in the top contract this week, while the sweep contract is down 17¢ in the last month and almost 30¢ in the last three months.

Market Prices at 7 a.m. EDT: How many incumbent US senators will be re-elected in 2022?

The Senate control market echoed the balance of power market, shifting toward a Democratic win this fall on Tuesday as the contract surged 4¢ to close at 54¢. It has stayed steady since. The Republican contract fell 6¢ this week before gaining 1¢ on Thursday to close at 47¢. The Republican contract is down 13¢ since July 26, while the Democrats have surged up 12¢. This overall sentiment shift was also seen in the majority leadership market, which saw Schumer take the top spot from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) also on Tuesday as his contract closed at 53¢ to 47¢ for the Kentucky senator.

The crowd hasn’t fully bought in on the idea that the House will stay in Democratic hands, just yet, but there are warning signs. Republicans are down 3¢ this week, but they still hold a healthy 84¢ to 20¢ lead over Democrats. The potential concern lies with the fact that 84¢ marks a 90-day low for the Republicans and 20¢ is a high for Democrats.

With still months to go until the midterm elections, we will keep an eye on the market trends to see if Democrats can continue their timely surge and if Republicans can stem the bad vibes to produce a historically in line result in November.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

Old Bull TV: “A night's sleep has given me no better perspective on the gratuitous hobbling of @PredictIt and I have no specific knowledge of the behind-the-scenes lobbying that led to it, but I feel compelled to highlight a few perhaps obvious things...”

MarketWatch: “The Democratic Party’s chances for keeping its grip on the US Senate after November’s midterm elections are continuing to improve, with betting market PredictIt now putting them at 54% — up from under 50% last week and just 25% in mid-June... PredictIt’s odds for control of the Senate flipped to favoring Democrats rather than Republicans on Tuesday, as voters in Kansas and other states with elections cast their ballots.”

Casino.org: “PredictIt received notice Thursday from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that the federal agency was pulling its “No-Action” recommendation, which led the online political futures exchange to stop adding new markets immediately...PredictIt maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the No-Action letter,” the exchange stated. “We know our PredictIt community is incredibly strong and committed to this project.”

Audible Insights

Star Spangled Gamblers: How PredictIt Got Knifed

Earlier today, the Commodities Futures Exchange Commission (CFTC) announced that it is revoking the regulatory facility that allows PredictIt to operate. PredictIt is the largest political gambling company in America.

Before continuing on, please take the time to tell the CFTC that their actions are misguided by submitting your comments here.

Ruthless: Senate Race Outlook

The fellas lay out the Senate map and discuss Republicans road to the majority. Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX) joins the program for an interview.

The Prediction Trade: What’s Next for Stocks and Some Midterm Locks

In three compelling trade ideas—one lock, one long shot and one even-money bet—Garrett Baldwin covers student loan debt, Dr. Oz’s Pennsylvania Senate race and overall Senate control after the midterms. Plus, he calls upon his expertise as an economist to share his take on what’s going on in the stock market.

Election Profit Makers: Like Sands Through The Hourglass...

Jon and David discuss the Forward Party, recent changes in the Senate markets, and NOPE. Rebecca from Missoula shares some Gavin Newsom intel.

Recently Launched Markets

Obama hands over presidency to Trump at 58th Presidential Inauguration. Photo: US Air Force Staff Sargent Marianique Santos / Public Domain.

New markets launched this week include what will be the margin of victory in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District Republican primary; who will come in second place in Alaska’s at-large special election; who will win the Democratic nomination in the Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District; who will win the Republican nomination in Connecticut’s Senate election; who will be the Democratic nominees for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District and Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District.

Finally, we are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to [email protected] and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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predictit-analytics · 2 years

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Important Notice for PredictIt Traders

Dear Traders,

The staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has withdrawn the No-Action letter (NAL) issued to Victoria University of Wellington and under which PredictIt has operated since 2014.

Here's what you need to know:

The security of trader funds will not be affected by this action.

We intend to continue operating existing markets for trading through Feb. 15, 2023 unless they resolve sooner under their respective market rules.

In light of this decision, we are halting the addition of new markets.

No determination has been made on how markets with end dates after Feb. 15 will be settled.

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PredictIt maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the No-Action letter. We know our PredictIt community is incredibly strong and committed to this project. If you want to respectfully comment on this action, you can submit your comments to the CFTC here.

We will continue to update this page with additional information as it becomes available. Thank you for being a PredictIt trader!

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Team PredictIt

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predictit-analytics · 2 years

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Predictable Insights: The Last Straw for Greitens and it’s Masters or Bust in Arizona for Trump

It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. Has former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) lost his appeal to Republican voters in the Show Me State? If current polling and the markets are to be believed, then a resounding yes is the right answer. But with just days left until the Aug. 2 primary, the one voice that could change everything has remained quiet. Voters have suggested they’d welcome input from a certain former president before casting their ballots to decide who the Republican nominee for US Senate will be.

Another hot primary scheduled for next Tuesday is in Arizona, where former President Donald Trump has already weighed in on his preferred choice. But in a state that has trended toward picking more moderate representation for the Senate over the last decade plus, will whomever wins the Republican nomination be the right choice to deliver a seat flip in an election Inside Elections rates as a “toss-up,” this fall? Which party control the Senate could be riding on it.

Finally, we’ve just launched three new markets today asking what percentage of the Wyoming at-large primary vote will Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) win; what will be the margin of victory in Michigan’s Republican gubernatorial primary; and what will be President Joe Biden’s job approval rating on RealClearPolitics on Aug. 5.

This Week in the Markets

Former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens meeting with former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis in 2017. DOD photo by Air Force Tech. Sgt. Brigitte N. Brantley / Flickr / CC BY 2.0.

Have Missouri Republicans Finally Given Up on Their Former Governor?

Former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) has lost his frontrunner status in the Republican primary for the US Senate in recent weeks – a position that had made many Republicans nervous that the scandalous candidate could cost them an otherwise safe seat. With the primary just days away, Greitens’ hold on Missouri Republicans seems to have slipped in favor of a more palatable candidate.

According to multiple polls released in the last week, Greitens’ position has slipped all the way down to third place. A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found 33% of likely Republican primary voters in Missouri said they plan on voting for the state’s Attorney General Eric Schmitt (R), while 21% said they would vote for Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-MO) and just 16% said they would vote for Greitens – a 10% drop in support in the last month.

Emerson College Polling/The Hill: A final survey of very likely voters for the Missouri Republican Senate primary found Eric Schmitt with a 12-point lead over his closest competitor.

A June poll conducted by Emerson/The Hill found Greitens leading the race with 26% support, Schmitt at 20% and Hartzler with 16%. The latest poll also found that among the three frontrunners, voters had the least favorable opinion of Greitens with 61% having a somewhat or very unfavorable view of the former governor, while the same percentage reported a somewhat or very favorable view of Schmitt.

Three other candidates didn’t get double digit support: Rep. Billy Long (R-MO) with 5%; Mark McCloskey with 4% and Dave Schatz with 2%. But, with 17% still undecided and just days to go, the race is still within reach for the top three. The poll’s margin of error was 3% and it was conducted July 21-23.

Another Missouri Senate poll by the Trafalgar Group was released this week, and it also shows Schmitt as the leading Republican candidate. Their poll of 1,059 likely Republican primary voters gave Schmitt 27% support, while Hartzler was close behind with 24% — just within the poll’s 3% margin of error. Greitens was again in third place with 20% support, while 16% remained undecided.

Trafalgar Group Poll: Paints a closer picture with Schmitt’s lead over Hartzler within the polls margin of error.

Greitens, who has been embroiled in scandal throughout his campaign for Senate, resigned from the office of the governor in 2018 over allegations that he violated campaign finance laws and that he tied up his hairstylist in his basement and sexually assaulted her. Still, many Republicans in the state were supporting his Senate run until recently.

Last month Greitens’ campaign made national headlines for an ad showing him bursting into a home with a rifle in a SWAT-style “RINO hunt,” referring to “Republicans in name only,” a term commonly used by some Republicans to question the conservative bona fides of their colleagues. Since getting negative backlash over the ad, Greitens has sought to soften his image with a more recent ad showing a montage of black and white photos from his campaign with the message “This movement in Missouri is fueled by love, not hate.”

The final straw, though, for voters is at least in part down to claims by his ex-wife, who he is involved in a lengthy custody battle, that Greitens physically abused her and their young son. Greitens denies the allegations. An anti-Greitens super PAC came in with $6 million worth of TV ad time, blanketing the state with messages about the abuse allegations, making the group the top spender in the race so far.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?

“I think it’s a case of the straw that broke the camel’s back,” said Gregg Keller, a Republican strategist in the state working with a pro-Schmitt super PAC. “I think Missouri Republican primary voters have, and rightly so, a lot of skepticism about what they read in the press. But at some point, when Missouri’s former first lady comes forward and says Greitens beat her when they were married, and says the same thing about his young son, voters think, ‘The number and the seriousness of the charges against him are just too much for me. I’m tapping out.’”

Greitens insists the claims made by his ex-wife are politically motivated, and in a statement to Politico earlier this week, Greitens’ campaign said the recently released polling was inaccurate, but did not release their own data showing otherwise.

“Fake poll numbers peddled by grifters are an albatross in the political world and Gov. Greitens will become the next US senator from Missouri,” said Greitens’ campaign manager Dylan Johnson.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Missouri?

Schmitt is now the most likely, according to polling, to win the Republican nomination. There are also rumors of a potential late endorsement from former President Donald Trump, which would give his campaign an extra boost. The Emerson/The Hill poll found that 41% of GOP voters in Missouri would be more likely to vote for a candidate if they were endorsed by the former president.

Earlier this month, Trump publicly bashed Hartzler, declaring she would not get his endorsement, and with Greitens falling poll numbers it’s unlikely the former president jumps on that seemingly sinking ship.

“[A Trump endorsement] could allow Schmitt to secure his lead or provide a last-minute game changer for Greitens if Trump were to get involved in the race,” said executive director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Whom will Trump endorse in the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate primary?

Republicans are running to fill retiring Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-MO) seat. Blunt has called on Greitens to drop out of the race, along with Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), who has endorsed Hartzler.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as “solid Republican,” so whomever wins the Republican primary is likely to win in November. But as far as the Democratic primary, the race is basically down to Anheuser-Busch heiress Trudy Busch Valentine and Marine veteran Lucas Kunce. Valentine leads with 39% support from Democratic primary voters, while Kunce has 36% support, according to Emerson/The Hill.

Trade the markets

Greitens lost his frontrunner status in the market for Missouri’s Republican nomination to Schmitt on June 25 and hasn’t been able to gain momentum back. In the last week alone, Greitens lost 30¢ – from 36¢ to a low of 6¢ – before gaining back 4¢ on Thursday. Schmitt has been on an upward trajectory over the same time period and gained a net 25¢ in the last seven days. Vicky Hartzler is tied with Greitens with 10¢, losing 2¢ on Thursday. On July 25, Hartzler moved into second place, ahead of Greitens, with 20¢ to 16¢ and was still in second until yesterday’s price changes.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?

Traders put the margin of victory in the GOP Senate nominating race most likely at “6% to 7.5%” at 31¢, followed closely by “3% to 4.5%” at 28¢, “9% to 10.5%” at 27¢ and “4.5% to 6%” with 26¢. These numbers suggest traders agree with polling and think Schmitt will win by a significant amount when all is said and done.

Schmitt, assuming he’s the Republican nominee, is expected to beat the Democratic nominee in the Senate race by a landslide – with 94¢ to 6¢ odds. That’s been traders’ thinking consistently over the past three months.

Greitens Fall From Grace: Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?

As for the Democratic nominee, beer heiress Valentine has gained a significant lead in the last week of trading. She gained another 10¢ on Thursday to widen her lead to 75¢, ahead of Kunce, who lost 13¢ yesterday and fell to 25¢. Kunce held the lead through all of May and into June before the market tightened and Valentine ultimately pulled into the lead with just days left in the campaign.

Trump Makes His Play in Arizona’s GOP Senate Race

Blake Masters speaking with attendees at the “Rally to Protect Our Elections” in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Over in Arizona, the Republican Senate primary on Aug. 2 has developed into a head-to-head race between Blake Masters and Jim Lamon, with spending in the tens of millions just to pick the candidate who will go up against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in the fall. So far, Inside Elections rates the race a “toss-up,” but some Republican strategists fear that nominating the wrong candidate could make the seat easier for Kelly to hold onto.

Masters, the frontrunner, has the endorsement of former President Donald Trump and has taken on some aspects of the former president’s persona and rhetoric that tend to rub more moderate Republicans and independent voters the wrong way, but which his supporters call “speaking truth to power,” like his claims about the 2020 election being stolen from him, and strong language about securing the southern border.

Trump’s endorsement of Masters early on drastically reshaped the race. While this resonates with a significant portion of Republican primary voters in the state, Arizona’s general electorate has often in recent years opted to send more moderate candidates to the Senate, like Sens. John McCain (R-AZ), Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination?

“I think it’s better when people can actually talk about stuff, even if some of it is outside the balance of traditional political discourse,” said Masters to The Washington Post.

Billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel, who also backed Ohio’s now-Republican Senate nominee JD Vance to the tune of $15 million, has made an additional $1.5 million donation to support Masters’ campaign – bringing his total invested in Arizona also to $15 million. Masters and Thiel go way back, with Masters having served as chief operating officer at Thiel Capital and head of Thiel’s personal foundation until just a few months ago.

Solar power executive Jim Lamon, who also sought the coveted Trump endorsement, poses the biggest threat to Masters in the primary. Lamon has largely self-funded his campaign with more than $14 million. Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings released last week showed that as of mid-July, Masters’ campaign had $1.5 million cash on hand, but $1.3 million of that can only be used if he makes it to the general election because of campaign finance laws. In the past three weeks, Masters has invested $639,000 of his own money into his campaign. Lamon’s latest report shows $438,000 cash on hand.

Prices at 7 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the US Senate election in Arizona in 2022?

Lamon has so far significantly outspent Masters on television ads, with more than $9 million spent this cycle, but outside groups like the one Thiel supports are making up the difference. Saving Arizona PAC has dropped $7.8 million on ads supporting Masters, while Masters’ campaign has spent only $1.4 million, according to AdImpact.

Public polling in the last month has shown Masters with a double-digit lead over Lamon, with a Real Clear Politics polling average of plus 11 points in favor of Masters. One of the polls included in the average was conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) and released on July 8 giving Masters 25%, a 16% bump from the same poll conducted in April. Lamon had also gained a few points moving from 16% to 18% in July, but losing his frontrunner status.

OH Predictive Insights Poll: Masters netted a 16 percentage point bump and first place in the July polling of the Arizona electorate.

Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich (R) was thought to be a formidable candidate early on, and led polling in April with 21%, but that was before Trump’s endorsement and Thiel’s money infusion into Masters’ campaign. Brnovich is now in third place with 14% support. Notably, a whopping 35% were still undecided a little less than a month before the primary.

Kelly has struggled to distance himself from President Joe Biden’s policies and low approval rating and has spent considerable time on the campaign trail on the defensive over rising prices. Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to flip the Senate in November and Kelly is one of their top targets.

Market Prices at 7 a.m. EDT: More Arizona primary elections worth predicting on Aug. 2.

Trade the Markets

At this point in the race for Arizona’s GOP Senate primary, Masters’ lead over Lamon looks unassailable as the Trump-backed candidate holding a 76¢ margin over second place. Master’s 87¢ is a penny shy of his 90-day market high and coincides with a two month upward trend after closing on May 21 at 54¢. Just four days prior, Lamon peaked at 39¢ before trending all the way down to 3¢ before the most recent recovery placing him at 11¢. That pricing makes Lamon the only viable challenger, according to the crowd, to Masters ahead of the Aug. 2 vote. Brnovich is third with 3¢, but hasn’t been in double digits since falling out on July 7.

Whomever wins the GOP Senate primary in Arizona is likely in for a close race with the Democrat incumbent Kelly. As it stands, Democrats hold a 54¢ to 47¢ edge over Republicans having retaken the lead in the market on July 18. The worry for Republicans remains in the fact that their contract has trended mostly downward over the past three months and having once led by a 66¢ to 37¢ margin back on May 1.

The Arizona’s race is rated as the fourth most likely Senate election in November to have the smallest margin of victory, with its contract at 13¢ — just 4¢ shy of first-placed Georgia.

ICYMI

Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

MarketWatch 1: As he prepared to give Tuesday’s speech, Trump was far ahead of his nearest potential Republican competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in 2024 betting markets. Former Vice President Mike Pence, also a potential 2024 contender, is far behind both Trump and DeSantis, given just 5% chance in the PredictIt market. Trump’s likelihood of winning the GOP nomination currently stands at 44%, with DeSantis at 34%, according to PredictIt.

MarketWatch 2: Political betting site Predictit.org gives him a 35% chance of winning the GOP presidential nomination, trailing former president Trump on 44%. Meanwhile DeSantis has already overtaken Donald Trump in some of the polls.

Also seen in: Vegasslotsonline.com.

Audible Insights

Ruthless: Democrats Ruined America’s Economy

The fellas discuss the economy and laugh about animal attacks before playing King of the Hill. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Sen. John Thune (R-SD) join the variety program for interviews.

Star Spangled Gamblers: Can Ron DeSantis Win the Big One?

We’ve been ignoring the elephant in the room, which is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. There is simply no doubting the fact that he already rivals Trump’s power within the Republican Party, and is capable of not only succeeding Trump, but potentially knocking him off in the 2024 primaries... Is DeSantis the real thing? Or is he a flash-in-the-pan governor who will stay out of the race in 2024 and recede back into history?

Election Profit Makers: Feet Don’t Fail Me Now

Jon and David discuss many topics… and have fun doing so!!!

Recently Launched Markets

Obama hands over presidency to Trump at 58th Presidential Inauguration. Photo: US Air Force Staff Sargent Marianique Santos / Public Domain.

New markets launched this week include who will win the Republican nominations in Missouri’s 7th Congressional District and for secretary of state in Arizona; which Republican will win the most votes in Washington’s 8th Congressional District primary; who will win the most votes in Washington’s 9th Congressional District primary; what will be the margins of victory in Kansas’ ballot measure on abortion rights and Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial primary; will the first round leader declared the overall winner and who will lead after the first round of voting in Alaska's at-large special election; who will win the most votes in Alaska’s Senate primary; what will be the margin of victory in Missouri’s Republican Senate primary; which party will win Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District special election and which party will lead in FiveThirtyEight Congressional generic ballot polling for Aug. 3.

We also have weekly recurring markets on President Joe Biden’s job approval rating on RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.

Finally, we are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to [email protected] and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

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