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marswatchesball · 5 months

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The most chaotic outcome possible in college football's championship week

Four teams make the College Football Playoff, as decided by the ranking by the 13-person CFP Selection Committee. In seasons' past, this committee has set precedents for what factors they deem most important, chief among them being win-loss record, strength of schedule, and perhaps above all else, winning a conference championship.

Hence why the outcomes of this weekend's slate of conference title games held so much importance when predicting who might make up the top four in the final rankings. In the penultimate rankings, the top four teams (Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State) all were undefeated and would remain so if they each won their respective conference championship game. Finishing the season as an undefeated Power 5 conference champion essentially guarantees a top-four finish. A loss would mean dropping down among the few one-loss teams just outside of the top four, and being thrown into a debate about which of these one-loss teams is the best.

And as luck would have it, this ended up happening in the one case where it would cause the most chaos: Georgia, two-time defending National Champion and (almost) year-long #1 team in the nation, lost to one-loss Alabama in the SEC conference title game. Meanwhile, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State all won their conference titles and locked up perfect 13-0 records. Those three teams will (almost) certainly make up the top three in the final rankings, in that order. As for that fourth spot...

There are now essentially four different teams vying for the final playoff spot, all of them with one loss on the year: the aforementioned Georgia and Alabama, Big 12 champions Texas, and Ohio State, which was idle this week after losing to Michigan in the win-and-you're-in showdown last week.

Right away, I think it is safe to eliminate Ohio State from the conversation. Remember what I said above about the Selection Committee setting a precedent with rewarding teams for winning their conference championship? Ohio State did not even play in their conference's title game. It would be unconscionable to place them ahead of two other conference champions.

As for Georgia, yes, they are two-time defending National Champions. Yes, they won 29 straight games over the course of three seasons before losing on Saturday to Alabama. Yes, they were the #1-ranked team for almost the entire season. BUT, they did not win their conference championship. Placing them ahead of Alabama, the team that just beat them for a conference title, would make no sense.

Which leaves two teams: SEC champs Alabama, and the one team that was able to beat them this season, Texas. These two teams will likely be #4 and #5 in the final rankings. The big question is, which should be which?

Conference championship? Check and check. Both of these teams satisfy the committee's top priority.

Strength of schedule? The SEC and Big 12 are both strong conferences, with the SEC having an edge.

Win-loss record? They are both 12-1. Texas' one loss this year came against Red River Rival Oklahoma at a neutral site. Alabama's one loss came back in Week 2, at home...against Texas.

To me, that is the deciding factor. In a debate about which one of these teams is better, there is no better indication than a head-to-head result. And that is what we got, with Texas going to Tuscaloosa and defeating the now-SEC-champs by double digits. Once again, ranking a team ahead of another team of similar stature that beat them makes no sense. In my opinion, Texas is the best one-loss team in the nation, and should be ranked fourth in the final CFP rankings.

What would a 12-team playoff look like if it were in place this season?

Next year, the College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams. If one ever needed a reasoning for this change, the way this season has turned out is as good an indication as any.

To put it bluntly, there are more than four National-Championship-caliber teams this year. If the 12-team playoff were in place this season, there would not be any worry about leaving out worthy teams. The only fuss would be determining who is ranked where.

The top four teams get byes to the quarterfinals. These four teams must be conference champions, and wouldn't you know it, my top-four from above are all conference champions. Of the remaining eight spots, two are reserved for other conference champions, while the other six are open to any other teams (this is likely to be altered next year, however, since the Pac-12 conference as we know it will cease to exist due to conference realignment; only five spots out of 12 will be reserved for conference champions, while the remaining seven will be open to all others).

With the top-four comprised of the champions of the Big Ten, Pac-12 (RIP), ACC, and Big 12, the remaining eight spots will feature the SEC champion Alabama, a conference champion from the "Group of 5," and six other non-conference-champion teams. Georgia and Ohio State would make it in as the only other remaining one-loss teams. At #8 would likely be Oregon, now a two-loss team after losing twice to Washington, both by just three points each.

That leaves three more "at-large" spots, and the spot reserved for the Group of 5, which we will get to in a bit. There are four other two-loss teams—Missouri, Ole Miss, Penn State, and Oklahoma—but one of them will have to be left out. See? Even with an expanded playoff, there are bound to be tough decisions and inevitable controversial omissions.

Deciding which of these four teams is the worst is not easy. Again, they are all 10-2, and most of those losses were to really good teams. But it's also worth looking at the teams they beat as well.

Here is each of these four teams listed with the games they lost, and the "quality wins" they have to their names:

Missouri: Lost to Georgia (30-21) and LSU (49-39), quality wins over Tennessee, Kansas State, and Kentucky Ole Miss: Lost to Georgia (52-17) and Alabama (24-10), quality win over LSU Penn State: Lost to Ohio State (20-12) and Michigan (24-15), quality win over Iowa Oklahoma: Lost to Kansas (38-33) and Oklahoma State (27-24), quality wins over Texas and SMU

Missouri definitely jumps out as having the most and best quality wins while only losing close games to really good teams. They are ranked ahead of the other three teams here for a reason, it seems. Missouri would be assured a playoff spot, likely just behind Oregon, at #9.

Oklahoma's win over Texas is the best win any of these four teams have. And their losses were both very close against good conference opponents, both away from home. I think that's good enough to make them #10.

So that leaves one spot for Ole Miss and Penn State to fight over. All of the losses suffered by these two teams were to better teams ranked above them. Penn State was more competitive in the games they lost, however. It feels more likely that Penn State could avenge one of their losses than Ole Miss accomplishing the same thing. I mean, that 52-17 thrashing to Georgia is Uga-ly. Penn State just seems like the better team; if Penn State and Ole Miss played against each other, I think Penn State would win by double digits. So, sorry Rebs, but Penn State gets the last at-large bid for the playoff.

Now to discuss the suddenly very messy question about which Group of 5 conference champion is the best. This isn't just a messy question in terms of this article about a hypothetical 12-team playoff, it has real-world consequences this season, too: The best Group of 5 conference champion is guaranteed a spot in a "New Years Six" bowl game against a Power 5 opponent. A relatively small football program being placed on that big of a stage is invaluable, so the team that gets this nod better be deserving.

The thing is, this is going to likely be a difficult determination next year and onward for the Selection Committee. There will be five conference champions to choose from, and much like this year, there likely won't be a whole lot of separation between two or three of them.

Here are the conference champions from the Group of 5:

Conference USA: Liberty (13-0)

American: SMU (11-2)

MAC: Miami OH (11-2)

Sun Belt: Troy (11-2)

Mountain West: Boise State (7-5)

Liberty certainly stands out with that 13-0 record. Why aren't they in the conversation for the actual real life playoff? you might ask. Well, it has everything to do with their strength-of-schedule, which is to say, they have the worst strength-of-schedule in the FBS. 133rd out of 133 teams. Conference-USA was the weakest conference in the FBS this season, so even as an undefeated conference champion, I have my doubts that Liberty is the best of these five teams. They didn't even play a single Power 5 team this season. Can they be expected to be competitive against one of the Power 5's best in a New Year's Six bowl game?

Liberty aren't the worst, though. That likely has to be Boise State simply for the 7-5 record, even if the Mountain West was intensely competitive towards the top.

That leaves three 11-2 conference champs. Right away, I'm looking at SMU. They upset Tulane, last year's best Group of 5 champ that won the Cotton Bowl, thus capturing their first conference title of any kind since the 80s, and their two losses of the year came against Power 5 teams, Oklahoma and TCU, against whom they were still relatively competitive. The American is probably the best Group of 5 conference, so winning it and not losing a single in-conference game has to count for quite a lot.

An argument could also be made for Miami Ohio. Their two losses this year came against Miami (the Florida one), and Toledo, and they just avenged that loss by beating Toldeo in the conference championship game. So it's almost like they only have one-and-a-half losses. The MAC is pretty competitive, but not the strongest conference, however.

That leaves Troy of the Sun Belt, who beat Appalachian State to win the conference. Their two losses came against Kansas State from the Big 12, and to James Madison. That's where this gets awkward for Troy, because due to NCAA regulations regarding teams transitioning from FCS up to FBS, JMU was not eligible to compete in the Sun Belt Championship game despite otherwise qualifying. That means, if not for the NCAA's debatable policies, the Sun Belt championship game would have been a rematch between Troy and JMU. JMU won the first meeting 16-14, so it could have been expected for this game to have been similarly competitive. But again, it's pretty awkward to be crowned conference champions when the one team in the conference that beat you this year was barred from getting another shot.

With all of that said, if I were the one in charge of picking the best of these five, I would choose SMU over Liberty, simply because I think SMU would beat them in a head-to-head matchup, and their path to becoming conference champions was more impressive. However, I have an aching feeling that Liberty will get the nod from the committee. That 13-0 record just can't be ignored, even if those 13 wins don't have much meat on their bones. I would say it sets an ugly precedent. We will just have to see what the committee decides. But as for my little hypothetical 12-team playoff, SMU gets the coveted 12th and final spot...and a first-round matchup at Alabama. Congratulations?

So, here is what I think a 12-team playoff would look like if it were in place this year, starting with the rankings, and then the would-be first-round matchups:

1- Michigan (13-0, Big Ten champs) 2- Washington (13-0, Pac-12 champs) 3- Florida State (13-0, ACC champs) 4- Texas (12-1, Big 12 champs) --- 5- Alabama (12-1, SEC champs) 6- Georgia (12-1) 7- Ohio State (11-1) 8- Oregon (11-2) 9- Missouri (10-2) 10- Oklahoma (10-2) 11- Penn State (10-2) 12- SMU (11-2, American champs)

First Round:

SMU @ Alabama (winner faces Texas in the quarterfinals) Penn State @ Georgia (winner faces Florida State) Oklahoma @ Ohio State (winner faces Washington) Missouri @ Oregon (winner faces Michigan)

#college football #college football playoff

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