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STOXX 600 Earnings
First quarter earnings are expected to increase 6.7% from Q1 2022. Excluding the Energy sector, earnings are expected to increase 9.4%.
First quarter earnings are expected to increase 6.7% from Q1 2022. Excluding the Energy sector, earnings are expected to increase 9.4%.
First quarter revenue is expected to increase 0.5% from Q1 2022. Excluding the Energy sector, revenues are expected to increase 1.5%.
205 companies in the STOXX 600 have reported earnings to date for Q1 2023. Of these, 66.3% reported results exceeding analyst…
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Earnings Update
In the first quarter of the year, there was a semi-V-shaped pattern in aggregate earnings, with earnings growth reaching a low point of -5.2% at the beginning of earnings season, then significantly improving to -0.7%. If the remaining companies report an aggregate earnings surprise of at least 5.6%, then Q1 growth rate could turn positive, which would be the first time since Q4 of 2020 where the…
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#CS Update
Credit Suisse shares hit record low; biggest backer says can’t put up more money.
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Fed Actions
Currently, bank deposits are insured for an unlimited amount, although the official limit remains at $250,000.
Banks can now borrow from the Fed by using securities that have lost value at their original price. To explain this program in simpler terms, if a bank bought a bond for $1000 and it has since dropped in value to $700, the bank can still borrow $1000 using the $700 bond as…
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U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp
FED and FDIC take control and confirm that the deposit will be available Monday.
Releads with Sunday evening announcement by federal regulators
By Andrea Shalal, Sarah N. Lynch and Lananh Nguyen
WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) – Silicon Valley Bank SIVB.O customers will have access to their deposits starting on Monday, U.S. officials said on Sunday, as the federal government announced actions…
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#MSFT - 6 years revenue low
From #Reuters: Microsoft Corp is expected to report its slowest revenue growth in six years when it reports its second-quarter results, as a slowdown in cloud growth adds to declining sales of Windows and devices. Analysts will be looking out for comments on margin and focus areas, especially after the company eliminated 10,000 roles recently.
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2022 Experienced Significant Outflows
2022 Experienced Significant Outflows
In 2022, the financial markets in Europe and North America experienced significant outflows, causing concern among investors and market analysts.
Experts that I talked to attributed the outflows to Fed policy and economic instability caused by the war. As the outflows persisted, in Q3 and Q4 some investors began to sell off their assets.
The markets remained volatile for much of the…
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Season's Greetings and Happy New Year
Season’s Greetings and Happy New Year
May peace and solidarity reach all!
2022 will be remembered
¡Que la paz y la solidaridad lleguen a todos!
Key learnings:
60/40 Portfolios recorded one of the worse yearly performances
Historical Inflation and Fed Rates deltas
Intraday swings with low VIX correlation
just to name a few…
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Happy Thanksgiving
Holidays through the centuries in Wall Street.
Here are three pictures that give a view of the market evolution.
18th
19th
20th
The market bottom might, or might not, be near. Whenever it happens it won’t be similar to the 666 SPX Level in the SPX from the financial crisis.
Best Regards,Mario
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Reuters Exclusive: At least $1 billion of client funds missing at FTX
Reuters Exclusive: At least $1 billion of client funds missing at FTX
FTX founder Bankman-Fried secretly moved $10 billion in funds to trading firm Alameda – sources
Bankman-Fried showed spreadsheets to colleagues that revealed shift in funds to Alameda – sources
Spreadsheets indicated between $1 billion and $2 billion in client money is unaccounted for – sources
Executives set up book-keeping “back door” that thwarted red flags – sources
Whereabouts of missing…
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Top Endowment Returns - YTD
Top Endowment Returns – YTD
Endowments
Here a two-news article worth my time
Columbia University Endowment Posts 7.6% Loss for Fiscal Year – BNN Bloomberg
Harvard predicts looming markdowns to private assets | Big Indy News
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Last trading day of Aug 2022
We would need a -7% to make a lower low for the year and near a +7% to take the high of Aug.
Aug was a “bipolar” month. First, we have a run of near 6% in 12 trading days and later are experiencing a -7.8% in 12 trading days. If today we end up having a flat day the SPX is likely to end up negative for the month and near -16% for the year.
SPX is near -16% YTD and shows 3 consecutive Quarterly Candles pic.twitter.com/pTkJihSYO1— Mario Randholm (@MarioRandholm) August 31, 2022
It is…
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Shorts are being force to cut exposure
Shorts are being force to cut exposure
Sentiment is getting positive again after the SPX went for -23 to -11% in the last few weeks.
Today inflation numbers created a GAP on the SPX. Will it be able to consolidate 4200? Time will tell.
Managers that did not purchase last bottom are lagging the Indexes performance and shorts that wanted to see a lower lower in July now can say that they were proven wrong and are not likely to add…
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FED Update --> 1.5% to 1.75%
FED Update –> 1.5% to 1.75%
From Refinitiv:
The action raised the short-term federal funds rate to a range of 1.50% to 1.75%, and Fed officials at the median projected the rate increasing to 3.4% by the end of this year and to 3.8% in 2023 – a substantial shift from projections in March that saw the rate rising to 1.9% this year.
The stricter monetary policy was accompanied with a downgrade to the Fed’s economic outlook,…
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How is the market bottom confirm?
How is the market bottom confirm?
Are you considering the the bottom might not occur during 2022? Of course, nobody knows with certainty.
The ultimate sign is that nobody wants to buy. The comments related to investing almost become toxic.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1536777346451222529
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Down Pressure
There will be a time for the bulls again. The largest institutional investors are modifying their macro view and target pricing around the US Equities, this will create events similar to what we experienced today.
Nobody that I know can predict with certainty future prices actions however the best way to know if a decision tree based on a probability…
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Inflation Path & Yellen Comments
Inflation Path & Yellen Comments
Yellen mentioned: “I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take.”
“https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yellen-says-she-was-wrong-about-inflation-path-biden-supports-fed-actions-2022-05-31/
From the article:
“As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that have affected our…
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