man-vs-cube

[man-vs-cube]

Biden: Flawed Man, Amazing Brand?

In many ways it's difficult to understand why Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for President.

His record as a politician is bad, from a modern Democratic point of view. His history of alleged sexual misconduct is bad. His history of lying is bad. His alleged cognitive decline - or whatever is fueling his incoherent campaign performances - is bad. He's struggling to attract donors or rally attendees.

(Here's an article describing the substantial case against Joe Biden. Here's an article discussing his latest sexual misconduct allegation.)

It's easy to think he will lose just like Hillary did.

But I don't count him out yet. Hypothesis: Joe Biden has amazing branding. Not only is his brand much more positive than his flawed reality, it is also arguably a good counter-brand to Trump.

If Biden hadn't been Obama's Vice President, does anyone think he would even be in the race for President? I observe that Biden got a big boost to his brand by his stint as VP. I speculate that people who remember Obama and the Obama years fondly think fondly of Biden as well. That's brand.

From what I can tell, the Democratic public generally sees Biden as an honest man of good character. That's absurd. His character is arguably the worst of any of the major Democratic primary candidates. He's telling self-serving lies about his involvement in the Civil Rights movement and the sexual assault allegation against him is both a more severe and more credible allegation than that against Kavanaugh. (I do not intend that sentence to suggest I believe the Ford allegation is false; I believe it is most likely true.) How do so many Democrats think he has a good character relative to the other options? That's the power of a good brand.

Comparing Biden to some of the other candidates, he has the appearance and demeanor that suit our prejudices of who is a Respectable, Trustworthy Person. Bloomberg is short. Buttigieg has a funny looking face. Warren is a nerd. Bernie has a bad haircut and hunches. Warren, Kamala, and Booker all have sexism and/or racism to contend with. These are all brand problems.

So I speculate Biden's excellent brand comes from a) being Obama's VP and b) looking the part.

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Hold on a second.

What about the alleged cognitive decline?

I don't know for sure what's going on with Biden. The clips I've seen indeed look like he's losing his train of thought or struggling to express himself clearly. But using my subjective, nonexpert interpretation of clips chosen by his opposition to discredit him to diagnose his overall cognitive capacity seems epistemically risky.

Still, I think it's likely that 77-year-old Biden is losing some cognitive ability. He's old and the clips make him look bad. And if that's true, I think it is an astonishing rebuke to the idea of him becoming President. This is a country of over three hundred million people and the best the Democrats can propose to rule it is an elderly man in cognitive decline? To be one of the most powerful humans on Earth, with sole authority over the world's largest nuclear weapons stockpile for the next four years until he's eighty-two years old?

Incoherent speech and "cognitive decline" sounds like really bad branding, doesn't it? Shouldn't it sink my argument?

I'm not so sure.

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I mean, sure, when I say, "the man with sole authority over the world's largest nuclear stockpile shouldn't be someone who is losing executive function to age", it sure sounds bad. But I think that for many people, that's not the context that Biden's brand is being evaluated in.

They're comparing him to Trump. Many perceive Trump's style as brash, disruptive, uncivil, arrogant. They see him as a loose cannon. They're exhausted at having their attention drawn to his latest inflammatory statement or tweet, his latest insult, his latest retaliation towards those he deems disloyal.

(Do I think Trump is a loose cannon? I think that characterization is easy to exaggerate. The biggest loose cannon president of my lifetime was George W. Bush, when he started the Iraq War for no good reason. That's a lot more consequential than insulting a deceased veteran's family or tweeting about the press being the "enemy of the people".)

The manifestation of Biden's alleged cognitive decline could be characterized as "the opposite of loose cannon". Watching him, you're worried not so much that senility might lead him to drastic, risky decisions. You're worried he might be totally inert, unable to do much or to lead the country anywhere, for better or for worse. It seems entirely reasonable to speculate that a President Biden might choose a younger, more capable VP, appoint a boring technocratic cabinet, lean out of the presidency, and stick to low-volatility decisions. That's a sharp contrast to Trump! It even potentially stands out compared to the other Democratic candidates, many of whom would surely draw more attention to themselves than Biden. On the single issue of "who will make the Presidency itself a less exhausting attention sink", Biden might legitimately be the best candidate.

Trump himself has nicknamed Biden "Sleepy Joe". But to a voter looking for a less provocative President, that might be a compliment. Vote for Sleepy Joe, and you won't have to wake up in the morning wondering what Trump's latest inflammatory tweet is. No more "I hate to pay attention to him but I don't feel I can ignore him either." Vote for Sleepy Joe, and you'll sleep better too. I think this could be a reason Biden has been so successful. In this framing, cognitive decline enhances his brand. It doesn't diminish it.

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Some are predicting that Trump will beat Biden in a blowout victory. Anything could happen - including a Trump blowout. But my best guess is that it'll be close. I'll be surprised if Trump wins by a large margin. Sure, Biden doesn't look very good when held up to scrutiny. But maybe he's just got a great brand.

#biden politics branding