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Idols, Fire Tokens, Extinction, Oh My!
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Long live the Queen!
Queen Sandra…the only two-time winner (so far.) Sandra Diaz-Twine is a Survivor legend, and no matter what happens in this game, she will always be a Survivor legend. Do I think Sandra has a chance to win this game? Nope. Not a snowball’s chance. Unless…some poor unsuspecting sap thinks that she’s the perfect person to take to the end, because surely this jury wouldn’t reward her a third title, right? RIGHT?
I’m not so sure. I do not think that this jury will be a predominantly biter jury, no matter what happens. Maybe a few. I absolutely believe they will reward good gameplay. And taking Sandra to the end is not good gameplay, no matter what else you do. If Sandra doesn’t go before the merge, these folks better watch out.
I think this is an unlikely scenario, but my imagination has run away with me, and I want to see Sandra take one of the unsuspecting newbies under her wing (Adam, probably) and turn that into a peasant doing the Queen’s bidding. Come the end of the game, Sandra’s hands are (mostly) clean, and said peasant gets lambasted for not playing their own game. Boom. Sandra’s a three-time winner!
I don’t think Sandra gets that far, really, but it would be entertaining to watch. If Sandra makes it to a tribe swap, let alone the merge, I think it’ll be a real miracle. I hope she makes it to a tribe with Rob because I really want to see what kind of fireworks can happen there, but I don’t think they’ll both make it.
Overall, I kind of want Sandra to get a third crown, but chances are slim-to-none.
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Rob and Amber, Survivor’s leading couple
Amber Mariano is the cast member that I know the least about. I did not watch all of her first season because I had to fight the Friends devotees for TV time in my dorm, so all I have to go off of with Amber is Survivor All-Stars. I will say, though, that I have been enjoying her pregame press-she seems to have an air of confidence that I don’t remember seeing in All-Stars, but she also seems to be prepared to have a little fun while she’s out there.
Rob is, well, Rob. He thinks he’s the best player in the history of Survivor. While I do like Rob, I have to disagree with that assessment because I truly think that if you can’t win until your fourth try (with a decidedly unimpressive cast), that says something. Rob is entertaining, Rob is possibly one of the greatest strategists to ever play….but Rob lacks the social awareness to finesse his way through unscathed. I don’t generally mind cockiness in the game of Survivor, but Rob doesn’t know how to dial it back and lay low. In my opinion, that’s the biggest difference between Rob and Sandra. Sandra is equally cocky, but she can get through the game by showing confidence rather than cockiness. Rob has to have a huge reality check to get far, and that may not even be enough.
I haven’t been able to decide whether or not Amber will outlast Rob in this game, but my gut says she will. Rob will be a bigger target, while I think Amber will be able to make quick social bonds with other women. Her tribe, should they go to tribal first, will probably be focused on Sarah and Tony, if pregame interviews are to be believed. By the time a tribe swap occurs, Amber will have made enough of a solid alliance to get her through. I also suspect there will be some scrambling to protect Amber so as not to incur the wrath of Boston Rob, should the two make it to a swap or merge together.
But what might be really interesting to see is what will happen if the two do make it onto the same tribe. One of them will certainly have to go. I can see a couple of scenarios-a unanimous decision to boot Rob, a split vote to try and get one of them, no matter what, or a scenario where the tribe will force one of them to vote for the other, Ciera Eastin style.
I fully believe that Amber would vote Rob off before he would vote for her, and I also believe that he would sacrifice his game for hers. I can’t see Rob willingly letting Amber go to Extinction Island, and he would also probably believe he had a better chance of winning his way back into the game. I imagine that if it comes down to a vote splitting scenario, if Rob or one of his allies has an idol, it will be played for Amber.
I think Amber will be underrated, leaving her to make great connections and quietly sneak her way into the final four. What happens after that will be determined by the fire making challenge and who she’s sitting next to. I don’t see her winning the game because she’s in a two-winner household. This format is interesting because it takes away the “so-and-so really needs/doesn’t need the money” situation, but adding $2million to a household that already won $2 million is probably a stretch, and Amber will have to sit next to some weak links, if there are any, to win.
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Cast Assessment: Jeremy
I think it goes without saying that nearly everyone is excited to see Jeremy Collins as a part of this Winners At War Cast. Jeremy has cemented himself as one of the most likeable Survivors of all time with his performances on San Juan Del Sur and Second Chances. Second Chances, however, will definitely go down as the more memorable of the two.
Even though Jeremy has played in the new school Survivor era, I think one of the reasons that he has been so well loved by the fans is that he still has an old school aura about him. He can outwit, outlast, and outplay with the best of them, AND everyone votes for him with a smile on their face. (Ok, I can’t actually remember if they ALL had a smile on their face, but a unanimous vote says something.)
That said, I think Jeremy will fall early in Winners At War. I don’t think he’ll necessarily be a huge early target, but as idols and advantages come into play, I can easily see him targeted as part of a split vote to flush an idol, or perhaps a surprise victim of a Cirie-like advantage overload. Jeremy will not be a first target, but he’ll be kept in mind as a threat to get rid of sooner rather than later, and when a first choice either wins immunity or plays an idol, Jeremy will go to Extinction Island too soon.
The one thing that will probably work against him above all others is the perceived relationships that Jeremy has outside the game. Throughout the pregame press, Jeremy’s name has been consistently brought up as someone who has relationships with other players, mainly Rob, Tyson, and Natalie. Jeremy will be starting on the same tribe as Rob and Natalie, and so may be an easy choice to weaken Rob’s relationships. To be honest, I can also see Rob getting rid of Jeremy to deflect attention from himself.
Jeremy has the ability to win his way back in after spending some time on EI, but it will be an uphill battle to get to stay in the game after being voted out once. I see Jeremy as a very long shot.
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Cast Assessment: Sophie
Sophie Clarke is a classically underrated winner. I think most fans were just really bitter about Ozzy not making it through, but I do believe that Sophie deserves a lot of credit for her win. I truly think Sophie is one of the smartest (if not THE smartest) contestants that we’ve seen on this game. What possibly worked against her in South Pacific was her youth and the fact that she came across as a little smug and condescending-but to be honest I was never sure if that was her personality or her edit.
I think Sophie will have to be more patient and think a few steps ahead of the game. I think she may be surprised by how fast the game moves, and will also have some initial difficulty in navigating a cast that is comprised of the best of the best. That said, I think she can lay low and have some time to gain her footing. I do not feel that Sophie is in any danger of being a first boot, unless there’s an unexpected breakdown of some sort. Her tribe is going to be hot after threats like Sandra, Sarah, Tyson, and Tony, and that can open the door for Sophie to work with Kim and maybe Amber and even Yul (I just have a feeling Sophie’s going to be a good fit with the more old-school players.)
In her season, Sophie did very well with challenges; however, her location was pretty landlocked. It will be interesting to see if she has the same skill in the water. I’m also eager to see what happens with a tribe swap or merge, to see if she can skillfully navigate more than one alliance, or if she will stick to one close confidant. I also partially want to see Sophie and Michelle get together and have sort of a “winners scorned” alliance, but I also have a hunch that they may just be too different for that to work well.
I see Sophie easily making it through to the merge without visiting Extinction Island. I think how it goes after that may depend on her social game and if she is seen as a challenge threat. If people feel that she is outsmarting them, or if they feel like she’s going to go on an immunity challenge run, I think she’ll be early out post merge. I think she could win her way back in, but I’m not 100% sold that she has the social skills to pull off a Chris Underwood type vote.
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Cast Assessment: Yul
Yul Kwon is a player that fans have been hoping to see play again for quite some time. The Cook Islands winner has been noticeably absent from Survivor activities and seasons, despite being a fairly popular winner. But…after 26 seasons, we finally get the chance to see him back in action and to see how he fairs with modern day Survivor.
I’m going to say right here and now that I fully expect Yul to be sitting in the finals, and is probably my winner pick (I say probably because I’m going back and forth with Yul and Denise, and may just flip a coin.) For one, I think he will be severely underestimated by the fast playing, more recent winning crowd. Also, there will be much more threatening targets to go after in the beginning. If Yul keeps his head down, does well around camp and challenges, there will be absolutely no reason to go after him before a tribe swap.
Yul has mentioned in his pregame press that he is playing partially for the thrill, but also in the hopes of helping his good friend Jonathan Penner and his wife Stacy through her battle with ALS. And in reading these words hit hits me that I fully expect Yul to be the most motivated player in this game. I do not expect him to play a quiet, clean game-I expect him to do whatever it takes to fulfill a promise to a friend. And that, is powerful to be up against.
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Most likely to...
Most likely to get to Extinction Island first: From Dakal, Sarah Lacina. From Sele, Adam Klein
From reading pregame press, Sarah is quite the early target because no one knows what to expect from a good cop turned bad cop. Adam is on this list because big targets on his tribe, such as Rob and Parvati, are going to need an alternate target fast. Why not a recent, likeable, unsuspecting winner?
Most likely to find the first idol/advantage: From Dakal, Nick Wilson. From Sele, Ben Driebergen
Having previously played in Fiji, Nick, Ben, Wendell, and Adam have a good lay of the land and could possibly have an advantage on where to look. I think Nick and Ben will be looking first, while Wendell and Adam will be laying back trying not to look too obviously.
Loudest: Tyson, Sandra.
This doesn’t really need an explanation, does it?
Quietest: Tie between Ethan and Yul, tie between Sophie and Danni
Most entertaining: Tony, Sandra
Please don’t disappoint me, Tony. I agree you have to change your game to win…but man that will make for less interesting TV. Sandra’s going to go big or go home, or go big and go home, but no matter what it will be fun.
Most strategic: Rob, Kim
Honestly this was a tough one with this cast. I really struggled on the guys side, because I think there are quite a few strategic masterminds. I gave it to Rob because I think he has an advantage, coming straight from Island of the Idols. On the ladies’ side, again, quite a few masterminds, but I don’t think anyone tops Kim from their original season.
Villain most likely to turn Hero: Hear me out: Boston Rob. Hands down, I think if it comes down to it, he’ll get himself out of the game if it’s he or Amber that has to go. I don’t see him voting her out, even if it’s not totally selfless-he could try and work up some goodwill on EI by being a provider. But if its one thing Rob loves more than Survivor, its his wife and family, and I absolutely believe he’d sacrifice his game for hers.
Hero most likely to turn Villain: Wendell. Wendell’s itching to play a more devious game, and I think he can do it. I also think he can do it without people catching on for a little while.
Most well-liked: Ethan, Kim. Runners up, Yul, Danni.
I think, just from pregame reports alone, these are some of the names that you hear everyone wants to work with, at least for a little while. And from a fan perspective, I can’t say that I’ve really ever heard anyone say too many negative things about the individuals, though there have been some critics of their games. I surprised myself here by going with pretty much solid old school players. Wendell and Denise get honorable mention, though.
Most popular: Obviously, Rob and Sandra. (Runners up, Tyson, Kim, Parvati, and Tony.)
Most likely to make fire (at the fire making challenge): Wendell and Ben. I would make sure not to get them in that position.
Most likely to win multiple individual immunities: Jeremy, Natalie
I’m giving this one just on a hunch, but I think these two are probably going to do ok if they make it to the individual immunity stage.
Most likely to start a fight: Tony, Sandra
I went back and forth on Tony or Tyson. I ultimately went with Tony because he’s more of a loose cannon. Tyson will be snarky to the camera but not necessarily to anyone’s face. Sandra will start some fireworks on purpose and find a way to give someone else the blame for it. (See Game Changers, sugar thief.)
Contestants I’d most like to play with: Ethan, Denise
I’m such an introvert that I would need to have my core alliance be less about showmanship and flash and more about trust and dependability. I’d need to feel like I had a great connection to have any confidence at all in the game.
Most likely to succeed: Yul, Denise
Whew. That’s a tough one. Edge of Extinction really kills that prediction. Ultimately, I went with two people I think will avoid getting sent to Edge of Extinction in the first place, giving them some major props with the jury. I think they have what it takes to have a solid social game and stay away from being a major target until anyone realizes that its too late.
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Cast Assessment: Denise
Denise Stapley is one to watch. After a masterful performance of surviving every single tribal council during Survivor, Philippines, Denise has proven that she has the ability to outwit, outlast, and outplay her competition, even the best of the best. Denise will be overlooked at the beginning, partly because of the fact that she’s the oldest contestant (even though overall the cast is older than typical seasons), and partly because there will be bigger fish to fry.
Denise will need a good solid alliance partner, but during pre-game press, so far, several people have mentioned that they would like to work with her. A few assume that she and Sarah are close because they live near each other, but I don’t necessarily think that’s true. Denise will have to be careful about her alliance, because she could get burned by simply being close to someone like Sarah who IS a legitimate target, but she has experience in navigating that with physical threat Malcolm.
Denise will probably make it to the merge without any real fear, but I think she’ll probably draw some attention when people realize that she has the ability to keep herself under the radar. I think her alliance(s) will keep her safe, because they will realize that she is a valuable, trusted teammate. Her fate after the merge will partly depend on whether people perceive her as a threat to win individual immunity, but there should be plenty of other threats to go around, and I see Denise as a potential final three member without ever making a trip to Extinction Island. A Denise win is possible, but will definitely depend on who she’s sitting next to, and so I don’t want to call her outright as a winner pick, but I think her chances are great.
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Cast Assessment: Adam
Adam Klein. One of the newest winners, Adam has mastered the art of finding and utilizing the advantages that come with the “new school” style of play. This can benefit him, but also work against him. I feel like Adam is going to have a tough time staying in this game in the early days. He won’t go into the game as the biggest threat, especially coming into a tribe that contains both Boston Rob and Parvati, but the “big fish” are going to have to find someone to take the heat off of them and I have a gut feeling that it will be Adam.
Besides his knowledge of idols and advantages, Adam has shown that he can play a masterful social game. Choosing not to use his reward stealing advantage, and giving it to Jay as both a gesture of goodwill and a means to get a target off his back, was first class gameplay, and he was rewarded handsomely by a 10-0-0 vote. However, that is going to follow him into this game where there’s going to eventually be some intense paranoia over who has an idol or advantage, and who has the best social game.
I feel like Rob will attempt to rally the old school players to turn on Adam quickly, using the logic of getting him out before he can pull some tricks out of his sleeve (never mind that Ben is adept at this too, he’ll be kept longer because people will assume they can control him). Currently, I don’t believe anyone has addressed Adam as an early target in pre-game press; but those who have been targeted will need someone to point a finger at themselves.
Adam’s best chance at staying in the game is to align himself with a couple of old school players (Ethan, Danni) who could see the benefit in keeping him to help them learn the ropes of the new school game. This might keep him safe until a tribe swap, and could buy him time to actually find a decent advantage. Even so, with a tribe swap or a merge, I feel like Adam, Nick, and eventually Ben will find themselves on the receiving end of “idol paranoia” and will be targeted, regardless of whether or not they actually posses anything of value. If Adam is sent to Extinction Island, I feel like he can master the social game enough to have votes at the end, but I do not see him surviving a reentry to the game for just that reason. I hate to say it, but I think Adam’s shot to win this game is slim-to-none.
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Mission Kim-possible?
Kim Spradlin-Wolfe has been on everyone’s return list for a long time. The time hasn’t been right for her, but now, with $2 million on the line and an all-star winner’s cast, it seems to be a great fit. Kim flat out dominated Survivor One World, which is a season most of us would rather forget, other than that. Kim’s strategic game was nearly flawless, but it will be interesting to see if that will hold true in this game. In One World, Kim’s alliance was up against the men of Manono, who inexplicably allowed Colton Cumbie to take charge and give away a tribal immunity. There really wasn’t a lot to compete against in terms of strategy, as Manono and the men’s alliance self-destructed.
Even so, I think Kim will still hold her own fairly well. She will likely not be an early first target, due to some bigger names on her original tribe. She will be helpful in tribe challenges, and is sociable enough not to draw any negative attention. I think Kim will have to stay away from trying to establish a One World like women’s alliance, however, because people will be watching for and expecting that move. Kim will need to be able to float between several alliances or voting blocks without raising suspicion.
Kim will need to choose close allies wisely, because talking strategy with the wrong person will backfire on her, as that’s what she is known for. I expect it to be difficult for Kim to have many one on one conversations, especially if she makes it to the merge…which I think she will. I’m interested to see if Kim comes across any crazy advantages; she’s smart enough to pull off some David style tricks with the right advantage.
Like Wendell, I believe Kim will make the merge without having been sent to Extinction Island. Post merge will be tougher to navigate as people will be more closely watching alliances, idols, and advantages. I really wish it was clearer on when exactly the castaways learn about Extinction Island. If they are told about it upon the start of the game, Kim is one person that I would refuse to send to Extinction Island early, because she has the social skills to keep the jury under control. Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kim in the final four, but I wonder how her fire making skills are? If she’s calling the shots, she’s got a good path to victory, but if she’s put up against Wendell or Ben who have done this before, I think her game is over.
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Wendell Holland is probably one of the most likable winners on this cast. He had super smooth social skills that kept him on top of the game, a loyal ally in Dom, found idols, won challenges, and saved his game with the final four fire making challenge. A deadlocked jury was evenly impressed with Wendell and Dom, but his social game made Laurel ultimately give him the tie breaking vote. Ghost Island was an interesting season with a satisfying conclusion, but Wendell will have an uphill battle because everyone knows that he is such a well-rounded player, and that he has a reputation as a nice guy.
It seems that Wendell realizes this as well, as he’s mentioned in pre-game press that he wants to switch it up and be a little more cutthroat. This may serve him well, as no one will be expecting it. He’ll have to be smart enough to cover his tracks and have someone alongside him to deflect the heat for any messy moves. The one downside that I can see to this plan is that if he makes friends and then stabs them in the back, the jury may take it personally. I hope this cast would reward gameplay, but you never know when $2 million is on the line.
I see Wendell making the merge easily without any trips to Extinction Island. His original tribe has bigger fish to fry-Sandra, Tyson, Sarah, Tony, and Nick will probably all be targets before anyone even thinks about Wendell. His challenge strength will keep him steady on the original tribe and on any tribe swap. Wendell doesn’t have any connections with anyone from a previous game, so that will probably help him rather than hurt him. Wendell could be an asset for old school players who need help getting up to speed, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bond early with Yul or Kim, or both.
How far Wendell goes will depend on how well he adapts his game, but I would not be surprised to see him in the final four, where he will likely have to make fire to stay in-unless he’s the one calling the shots. Wendell will probably need a loyal ally to get through, similar to Ghost Island, but this time he’ll have to be the one doing the dirty work.
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Sarah-Good Cop or Bad Cop?
Sarah Lacina-a candidate for “most improved from one game to the next.” Not that Sarah’s Cagayan game was terrible, but she stuck too hard to the “good cop” script. Opening herself up to be more devious was risky, as she could have been stuck with some bitter jurors in Game Changers, but ultimately the jury (somewhat reluctantly) rewarded her gameplay over Troyzan and Brad.
Sarah’s eye for detail (spotting the advantage that Michaela didn’t see) can be an advantage in a game that’s surely going to be loaded with them. Sarah’s vote against Sierra in order to receive her legacy advantage is going to be a brilliant move that will haunt her throughout this game-even though this cast is big on gameplay, it will be hard for anyone to fully trust her. If you can rely on pregame press, Sarah has (so far) received the most “first one out” votes, even from the men, who at that point weren’t even sure if she was there. That’s probably not a great sign…however, after a second look, the majority of the votes for Sarah are from people not on her tribe initially, so maybe there’s hope.
Sarah’s early days will be key. Her tribe includes Sandra, Tyson, Amber, and Tony, so she may have some “shields” for a few days. Her connection to Tony won’t be overlooked-this will be their third time out together. Sarah would probably be best served by teaming up with that group of threats, and maybe pulling in fellow threats Kim or Wendell, for an alliance. She’ll have to be comfortable knowing that her alliance will take her out at first chance, so she’ll have to be adept at forming more than one alliance. A tribe swap may save her, but she’s going to have to rely on herself more than on an alliance. Idols and advantages will need to be found, but Sarah has a keen eye, so she’ll just have to be faster and sneakier than anyone else. Sarah will go to Extinction Island as soon as possible, but winning her way back into the game might just win over the jury.
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Tony the long shot winner?
If Tony Vlachos has truly learned from his stint on Game Changers, (and pregame press interviews suggests that he has) I think he has an excellent shot to win this game. I know he has some targets on his back due to his wildly unpredictable behavior, along with his connection to Sarah, but his saving grace early on will be that there are simply bigger targets. Tony’s placement on a tribe that contains Sandra, Tyson, Amber, and Sarah (who is apparently a BIG target to get out early, according to Dalton Ross’s Instagram account), will probably keep him relatively safe IF he can stay out of his own way.
Tony’s antics in Cagayan were super entertaining and fairly effective on a cast full of strangers, but now he’s on a season where everyone has seen him play twice. And on Game Changers, he went a little too far overboard trying to play the game that won him a million dollars on the first try. His lack of adaptability made him a huge target. If Tony can avoid spy shacks (at least obvious ones), bunkers, mad dash idol searches, and a host of other shenanigans he might be able to survive till at least the merge. Will a more subtle Tony still be entertaining? Maybe not in the same way, but if he can be a laid-back strategic mastermind, he can probably make good TV AND keep himself in the game.
That said, this might be one of the only things that make me think Extinction Island could be interesting. Imagine a bored Tony with nothing really to do EXCEPT for build spy shacks and bunkers? I don’t see Tony taking well to sitting and waiting, so Extinction Island Tony could be entertaining. I’m not sure if he has the social skills to pull a Chris Underwood should he get back in the game, but I don’t doubt that he’d go hard before he goes home. I’m taking Tony as a long shot game winner because I think he has learned enough from his outings that he can stay out of trouble and possibly get to the end. This cast will also appreciate strong gameplay, and so I don’t think he’ll have to worry about bitter jurors.
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Cast assessment: Parvati
I’m going to admit, a cast assessment of Parvati Shallow is harder than I expected it to be. I have been critical of Parvati’s game, despite the magnificence of the Black Widow Brigade and some of the Heroes v Villains shenanigans. I’m mostly curious to see how her game will change in this star-studded season. I don’t think she can realistically rely on her previous strategy as a flirt; besides the fact that Parvati is married now, so are nearly all the men on the cast. I think she’s going to have a target on her back because of the Black Widow Brigade, and everyone will be wary of putting their games in her hands. I don’t know if she will be the first one out; people may well keep her feeling that they should save her as a threat to eliminate at the merge.
I feel that the tribe will have a tough choice to make if they lose early, as Parvati and Boston Rob are going to be the obvious threats; however, I feel that Boston Rob is probably going to get the brunt of the targets, simply because his wife Amber is along this season. I think once a tribe swap or a merge occurs, the heat will be back on her. In the early days of the game, Parvati is going to have to show a mellower side, maybe playing up the fact that motherhood has changed her, but at the same time she’ll have to plant some seeds of distrust to sow a little farther along.
I think Parvati’s going to have to work for it. She will not be trusted easily, so she’s going to have to buy some goodwill, either with idols, advantages, or fire tokens. She may have to hold back and go along with the flow, even if she doesn’t want to. Extinction Island, as always, is a wild card. If Parvati gets voted out, can she win her way back in? If she wins her way back in, can she stay? Can she win a fire making challenge? If Parvati Shallow gets to the end, I feel like she’s got a good chance at winning the game, because I feel like she will be respected for her gameplay IF she can change it up. I’m not at all confident that she gets that far, though, because this cast has a long memory and they will be gunning for her.
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Cast Assessment: Natalie
Natalie Anderson is one that’s hard to pin down as far as how I feel her chances in this game are. She’s a smart player with plenty of reality TV experience (Amazing Race as well as Survivor), she has a potential alliance member in fellow San Juan Del Sur castmate Jeremy, and she has a loyal streak. Those things can be listed as both pros and cons, depending on how her tribemates want to play. The original tribe division is not particularly helpful, since Natalie and Jeremy are starting out on the same tribe. I imagine that this pairing will be an easy target, as they will be viewed as a “power couple” from the get go. That said, how fast they go will probably also depend on whether or not Boston Rob or Parvati is deemed a bigger threat.
I think this tribe will ultimately be saved from the first Tribal Council, which could buy Natalie time to assess her situation and decide if Jeremy is an asset or a liability. If they lose, I can see the tribe deciding to take Natalie out to break up the power couple and save Jeremy as a meat shield. If she could make it to a tribe swap, and then the merge, I think Natalie has the ability to get through some tough situations by deflecting the heat to larger targets. So far, in any pre-game press that I’ve read, Natalie’s connection to Jeremy definitely has people watching her, but I haven’t seen anyone come out and say that she needs to be the first to go.
I think if Natalie wants to get to a tribe swap, at least, she has to lay low in the first couple of days, make some new connections that aren’t Jeremy, and maybe get some folks on board to target an obvious threat like Rob or Parvati, or an “easy vote” potentially Adam or Michele. A trip to Extinction Island would probably end her game, I think. She’s capable of earning her way back in, but I don’t know if she has the social skills to convince anyone to keep from sending her back upon reentry.
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Cast Assessment: Danni
Danni Boatwright. This is going to be one of the toughest cast members for me to assess, simply because it’s been so long since she played, I have to really research to jog my memories. But, I think that can be an advantage for her. I think people will remember here (fairly or not) as an under the radar player who was decent at challenges, but doesn’t seem particularly threatening. And Danni has been assigned to a tribe that features Parvati Shallow and Boston Rob, and so I feel like she will have a great few early days to keep the target off of her and find a tight alliance. Danni will probably be remembered for her social game, which is ultimately what won her the title over Stephanie, but I’m not sure that will be enough to target her early.
I see Danni surviving the early days, especially with what looks to be a strong tribe. If my gut feeling is correct, this tribe will not be the first to go to tribal council, which will give Danni a chance to find at least one solid alliance partner. I feel like she could easily pull in Denise and Michelle, which would give her another Midwestern partner and a new school player, to try and target a bigger threat like Parvati. If Danni survives tribal up until a tribe swap, I feel like Danni has a great chance to at least make the merge. A tribe swap could help her add alliance members and go into a merge with solid numbers. I see Danni making some moves once she feels comfortable, but playing to hard to fast could cost her. She’ll need to pick the right target at the right time to keep the heat off of her. I feel like once anyone even thinks she has some strategic chops (real or perceived) they’ll target her. An individual immunity challenge run could obviously keep her in the game, but also alert the remaining members to the fact that she’s a much more well-rounded player than they remember.
Bottom line: Nobody’s going to target Danni right out of the gate. She’ll need a solid alliance to weather the merge, and will have to be silently strategic to make it to the end. I see Danni as an early member of the jury…depending on Extinction Island. I can also see her making her way back into the game, but possibly being sent right back out.
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Cast Assessment: Nick
Nick Wilson-the most recent Survivor winner on this cast, was a call I made based on absolutely nothing to do with gameplay or pregame interviews. My gut feeling call was based solely on the fact that he’s from my husband’s family’s stomping grounds of Williamsburg, Kentucky. My own grandfather’s family was also from Eastern Kentucky, closer to Ghost Island favorite Donothan Hurley, and so I had a little bit of a weak spot for the sudden newfound interest in Kentucky contestants. I assumed he was smart, as law school is no joke, and that he had to have a good bit of grit and determination. I also spent five years in Kentucky during my college years and another year for work. Also, as a fellow Kentucky Wildcat fan, Big Blue Nation sticks together.
Of course, during episode 1, the impression that Nick was going to be the first one out was both terrifying and a confirmation of my assumptions. He wasn’t going to go down without a fight, and he figured out a way to completely adapt to his surroundings by making personal connections. The medical evacuation of Pat Cusack ensured Nick’s safety for the moment, but he needed to make a turnaround to stay. Nick was able to create and sustain multiple alliances, keep the heat off himself for early decisions, and strategize effectively, both with his fellow alliance members and on his own. Finding idols and advantages were key parts of Nick’s success, but his social game paid dividends as well. I was only truly scared for Nick’s well-being in the aftermath of the Lyrsa and Elizabeth votes, since the Goliath tribe had the numbers, but due to those well timed, well played advantages, Nick and his alliance eliminated John Morrison in what has to be one of my top three Survivor moments ever, and used Carl’s idol nullifier to send Dan to the jury and ultimately give the David alliance strong momentum. Nick managed to hang on to win the game despite having a heavy hand in sending most of the jury to their spots, and I was worried about bitter jury syndrome rearing its ugly head. Most of the jury decided to reward Nick’s gameplay with a million dollars.
I think Nick’s in trouble early, along with several other younger cast members. If I were playing, I’d try to get the youngest contestants, and possibly the most recent winners as well, out of the way early. I’m not clear on whether the players knew about Extinction Island before they get voted off. If so, I would definitely be voting for the strongest players (physically) in an attempt to weaken them. I would probably vote that way even without Extinction Island as a factor, because they would be seen as threats because they have most recently played the game and have experience with twists and advantages. My gut says Nick’s going to have to find advantages and a solid alliance fast, or it’s off to Extinction Island as soon as his tribe loses immunity.
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Cast Assessment: Tyson
Calling Tyson was an easier choice, if mostly because we now had a lot more information going into these seasons. I loved Tyson’s sense of humor and his attitude. I had a hunch from his pregame interviews that he had learned a lot about the game and HIS game, and that he would play while having fun and making moves. I don’t think anybody took Tyson seriously as a threat to win the game, given his reputation as a goofball and the fact that he basically voted himself out of Heroes vs. Villains, so he was a perfect candidate for a surprise win. I was afraid that his shoulder injury would do him in, but he played through impressively. The Coconut Bandits antics were enough to keep the audience in stitches, and probably cemented Tyson’s status as one of the most entertaining Survivors ever to play the game.
Tyson’s strong alliances and idol finding skills were impressive, however, if he wants to win this time, he needs to have a better read on when to play them. I think it’s going to be interesting to see how people perceive Tyson now that they know he’s a serious player. I think he’s going to have to keep up some of the one liners and zingers that we’re accustomed to in order to keep people from seeing his strategic chops. I think Tyson’s going to be an early target, and if he’s targeted but not voted out, seeking vengeance could be his downfall. Getting sent to Extinction Island would probably be enough of a wake-up call for Tyson to get his head together if he’s able to get back in the game…and could also possibly lead to some more hilarious Tyson commentary. On the other hand, now that Tyson’s a family man, will he show a mellower side? Will being away from his wife and kids be a distraction or motivation? (To be fair, I think this theme will manifest itself in different ways with several cast mates who were single and childless on their first Survivor ventures.) I’m not sold on Tyson as the winner with so many big personalities at play, but he also wouldn’t surprise me either.
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