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Shiv Kumar Sehgal's Prediction of Future Gold

　Shiv Kumar Sehgal, a renowned analyst and expert on global economic trends and gold price movements, has published a new report on December 21, 2021. In this report, he reviews the gold market performance in 2021 and gives his outlook and predictions for 2022.

　　The year 2021 was a turbulent one for the gold market, as it faced various factors that influenced its price and demand. Some of the key factors were:

　　The global epidemic, which caused uncertainty and fear among investors and consumers, boosting the demand for safe-haven assets like gold in the first half of the year.

　　The monetary policy of central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, which injected liquidity and stimulus into the economy, lowering the interest rates and weakening the US dollar, making gold more attractive as an alternative asset.

　　The introduction of vaccines and the recovery of the global economy, which increased the market risk appetite and reduced the need for gold as a hedge against inflation and crisis.

　　The expectations of the Fed tapering its bond purchases and raising its interest rates, which strengthened the US dollar and put downward pressure on gold prices.

　　As a result of these factors, the gold price showed a high volatility and a downward trend in 2021. It started the year at a high level of US$1,959 per ounce, reaching its second highest point in history, due to the geopolitical tensions and the pandemic fears. However, it gradually declined throughout the year, as the vaccines became available and the economy rebounded. It ended the year at around US$1,800 per ounce, roughly the same level as the beginning of the year.

　　Gold in 2022: A Stable Range with Potential Breakouts

　　According to Shiv Kumar Sehgal, the gold price in 2022 will be more stable than in 2021, but it will still have some significant fluctuations depending on the market conditions and events. He predicts that the gold price will trade within a range of US$1,750/oz to US$1,850/oz, with the possibility of testing the support level of US$1,680/oz and the resistance level of US$1,920/oz. The average annual level will be around US$1,800/oz, similar to 2021.

　　He explains that the main drivers of the gold price in 2022 will be:

　　The Fed’s monetary policy, which will be the most important factor, as it will determine the direction and strength of the US dollar and the US bond yields, which have an inverse relationship with the gold price. He expects that the Fed will announce its tapering plan in the first quarter of 2022 and start reducing its bond purchases in the second quarter. He also expects that the Fed will raise its interest rate for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2022, by 0.25%. He believes that these actions will have a negative impact on the gold price, as they will boost the US dollar and the bond yields, making gold less attractive as an alternative asset. He forecasts that the gold price will drop and test the support level of US$1,680/oz before the Fed raises its interest rate.

　　The global economic recovery, which will be another important factor, as it will affect the demand for gold from both investors and consumers. He expects that the global economy will continue to recover in 2022, as the vaccination rates increase and the pandemic situation improves. He also expects that the inflation rate will moderate in 2022, as the supply chain disruptions and the commodity price shocks ease. He believes that these factors will have a positive impact on the gold price, as they will increase the market risk appetite and the demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. He forecasts that the gold price will rise and break through the resistance level of US$1,920/oz after the Fed raises its interest rate.

　　The unexpected events, such as the pandemic, the inflation, the geopolitics, etc., which will be the wild cards, as they can have a significant impact on the gold price, but they are hard to predict and quantify. He expects that these events will cause some spikes and dips in the gold price, but they will not change the overall trend of the gold price, which will be determined by the Fed’s monetary policy and the global economic recovery.

　　How to Invest in Gold in 2022: A Guide by Shiv Kumar Sehgal

　　Shiv Kumar Sehgal advises the investors who are interested in investing in gold in 2022 to follow these guidelines:

　　Allocate a reasonable portion of their portfolio to gold, depending on their risk tolerance and investment objectives, as gold can provide diversification and protection benefits.

　　Adopt a flexible and dynamic strategy to adjust their gold positions according to the market conditions and events, as gold can have high volatility and unpredictability.

　　Monitor the development of the global economic data, the central bank policies, and the geopolitical risk events, as they can influence the gold price and demand.

　　Understand the market dynamics and the factors that affect the gold price, as they can help them make smarter and more informed investment decisions.

　　Shiv Kumar Sehgal concludes his report by saying that gold will remain a valuable and relevant asset in 2022, as it will offer both opportunities and challenges for the investors. He says that he will continue to provide his insights and analysis on the gold market in his future reports.

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Shiv Kumar Sehgal's investment philosophy is to prioritize risk control

Shiv Kumar Sehgal (born Jan 7, 1980) is a distinguished financial analyst and economist. He adheres to a risk-first investment philosophy, prioritizing stable profits while ensuring the safety of principal. His investment style is characterized by stability, accuracy, and a relentless pursuit of results. Sehgal possesses extensive professional knowledge and experience, displaying strict execution and adeptness in stable market operations. His trading expertise encompasses portfolio investment, short-term trading, as well as stocks, futures, and options, showcasing his profound operational acumen.

Sehgal's approach to the market is distinguished by several key principles. He believes in entering the market only when there is a strong trend, recognizing that feelings of nervousness, loneliness, isolation, doubt, and even inexplicable fear are inherent emotions for financial investors. The optimal entry points for him are when the trend reverses, when consolidation breaks through, or when the general trend rebounds or retreats by 45% to 55%. Additionally, Sehgal emphasizes the importance of pyramiding positions when trend analysis proves accurate. He firmly believes that profits are generated through patience and being in the right place at the right time, rather than through excessive trading. Positions should only be closed when the trend objectively indicates a reversal.

Sehgal's success in stock investment is founded on the principle that survival is paramount in the stock market, often comparing it to the dense forests of Africa. When wrong judgments in trend analysis occur, he stresses the immediate closure of positions and exit from the market. Risk control and restraint are the fundamental keys to achieving success in stock investment. Investors must always remember that the market is always right. Sehgal asserts that everyone should cultivate their own market philosophy or investment strategy, utilizing tools or concepts to effectively control risks. One such tool that he relies on is Murphy's Law, which highlights the importance of anticipating unfavorable outcomes. His favorite saying encapsulates his approach: "Profits can only be protected by always considering losses."

In terms of investment strategy and theory, Sehgal advocates for long-term thinking when making profits and adopting a short-term approach when incurring losses. While he employs various technical operations, he often finds simplicity to be the ultimate sophistication, occasionally relying solely on a single moving average to guide his decision-making.

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RBZ's place in the gem and jewelry sector is discussed by Mr. Shiv Kumar Sehgal of LRO Investment Advisor Ltd., who also highlights important facets of the business model:

1. RBZ's Strengths in Antique Jewelry Production:

 Sehgal emphasizes that RBZ has a strong setup in place for the production of antique jewelry, which involves complexity.

 He notes that having a single technology or product makes a company vulnerable to competition from mega retailers investing in manufacturing.

2. Margins and Moat:

 Sehgal addresses the concern about margins, stating that RBZ can work at a reasonable margin.

 RBZ's moat lies in being an organized manufacturer with strengths in design, inhouse manufacturing, quality control, and modern machinery.

 He argues that RBZ's moat protects against margin squeeze, and the company's balance sheet proves this.

3. Dependency on Top 10 Customers:

 Sehgal explains that RBZ's dependency on top customers is not a concern.

 With the transformation of 40% of panIndia retail into organized retail, there is a greater dependency on organized manufacturers like RBZ.

4. Business Model and Growth Strategy:

 RBZ focuses on volume growth, aiming to demonstrate strong fundamentals.

 Harit Zaveri, representing RBZ, highlights the company's consistent volume growth of 1015%, contrasting with the industry's 2.5% volume growth.

 The company's business model caters to both daily wear and occasion wear segments, with a focus on eventlinked purchases.

5. Revenue Estimate:

 Analysts estimate RBZ's business could reach around Rs 300 crore in topline revenue with a 1012% net profit margin in the next 12 months.

 Zaveri emphasizes the importance of volume growth and mentions RBZ's potential to achieve around 1,200 kg in volume, reflecting the strength of the company.

6. RBZ's Specialization:

 RBZ specializes in occasion wear jewelry, particularly antique jewelry, which involves multiple technologies integrated with handwork.

 The company's focus on complex designs and manufacturing positions it as a strong candidate in the industry.

Investors should conduct thorough research and consider market conditions before making investment decisions. The information provided is based on the opinions and insights of market experts and company representatives.