conservativedreamer

[conservativedreamer]

Who didn’t see this coming 🙄

[conservativedreamer]

[conservativedreamer]

It’s more complicated than that. There was a movement in the GOP, shortly after the Reconstruction Era, that was created to cast black people out of the party. It was called the Lily-White Movement. Two GOP presidents were leaders in this movement, William H. Taft and Herbert Hoover. Standing athwart this racist movement was Booker T. Washington (among others), a former slave and founder of the Tuskegee Airmen. It got so bad that in 1926, the NAACP distanced themselves from the GOP. With the Great Depression, black people moving North, and the New Deal economic programs, black people started shifting away from the GOP. So, it’s not as simplistic as, “the parties switched,” which is ridiculous. But the GOP did betray African Americans. I don’t think it’s too late to fix it, but I do think it’s time we acknowledge that the GOP has ignored black Americans for far too long.

[conservativedreamer]

Pointing to a problem does not invalidate an approach. This is because the word “problem” is by nature a relative term. In order to invalidate any alternative or approach you must make a comparison. You must place two or more concrete realistic alternatives side by side in order to assess their relative merits. It is a lesson that many critics of the Free Enterprise system have not understood.  To reject an approach without comparison is an irrational act. 

[conservativedreamer]

Are Hotter States Facing a Greater Coronavirus Surge?

Over the past few days, I’m sure many of you have been inundated with talk of Florida, Arizona, and Texas becoming the next COVID-19 hotspots. There’s good reason for this. They’re experiencing increases in cases that are not proportional to increases in testing. That means that their positive rate is increasing, which is generally not a great sign. 

Many lockdown proponents have been claiming that this is because the lockdowns were lifted too soon, but I remain skeptical. Florida reopened their state over a month ago, and their resurgence in cases only began in about a week ago. The chart above actually shows Florida’s change in positive rate going down between May 28th and June 11th, which is now no longer the case. 

I think a more reasonable explanation and one that is also being floated around is that A/C units and the increased use of them has a relationship with increased COVID-19 cases (note that I did not say causes). 

Above is charting the change in the overall positive rate between May 28th and June 11th in each state compared to the population-weighted Cooling Degree Days in that state (this is a good stand-in for A/C usage). Hotter states, as you can see are clumping closer to the top. This is not a perfect regression by any stretch of the imagination. It is just my first look into this. My next step is to chart the initial spread of COVID-19 in March with the size of each point adjusted for testing/population to see if that the reverse was true then (colder states that needed to use heaters were being disproportionately affected).

Sources: 

- Cooling Degree Days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

COVID Positive Rate: https://covidtracking.com/

Check out the initial tweet that inspired me to create this chart: https://twitter.com/binarybits/status/1274699785434513411

#conservative #covid2020 #covid2019 #corona update #coronavirus #covidー19 #conservatism #lockdown #florida #ron desantis #greg abbott #reopening #ggplot2 #mask #wear a mask

[conservativedreamer]

Four Years

Wow, it has been four years since I logged on to this place. I’m sure no one really cares, but I wanted to say that I really needed to step away from politics in 2016. Not really because it was too toxic but because I had a lot of personal stuff I had to deal with. 

For starters, I was on academic probation because I had failed a class... twice. You may ask how that’s possible, but I guess that’s what happens when you don’t do any of the assignments and fail to show up to the midterm and the final. Yeah, I skipped the final twice. I went from being a nearly straight-A student in high school to that in a matter of two years.

And then there was my health. I was a whopping 205 pounds at my height of 5′2. Since then, I’ve lost over 60 pounds (and then gained 10 pounds and then lost 10 pounds and on and on...). I was pre-diabetic, too. I definitely haven’t reached my goals yet, but I’m getting there :).

I think the largest reason why I left is that I had no idea what I believed in. I was too idealistic but no real ideals if that makes any sense. I’m no master political theorist now, but I have a better grasp on what I stand for and what I believe is worth fighting for.

Since I left, I graduated from college with a double major in Economics and Statistics (and my GPA was pretty kick-ass those last two years), and I’ve been working as a quantitative analyst for the past year at a consulting company. I’ve become a total data nerd, so I hope to bring some cool data viz and analysis along with a scattering of my political thoughts, now that I’m back. 

If you’re still reading for some reason, can’t wait to talk to y’all again!

#conservatism #libertarian #conservative

[conservativedreamer]

“Goodbye Stalin!”

[conservativedreamer]

I have never answered “Can I tell you a secret” with a “No”

[conservativedreamer]

To be fair, I think Milo is more of a populist than he is conservative. But he's entertaining and politically correct nonetheless. And therein lies the problem.

Pussies.

[conservativedreamer]

In regards to the food inspectors and the free market. What was that shit during the 20s like i dunno The Jungle by Upton Sinclair. We needed those food inspectors cause those businesses didn't give a shit

Upton Sinclair was a socialist muckraker from the progressive era.  He was all about workers’ rights and collectivism in general because that was all the rage back then.  He was highly unpopular even by progressive standards, as Teddy Roosevelt once said, “I have an utter contempt for him. He is hysterical, unbalanced, and untruthful. Three-fourths of the things he said were absolute falsehoods. For some of the remainder there was only a basis of truth.“  Just think of him as Russel Brand writing a fictional book about economics that ends up affecting the lives of generations of people to come.

The Jungle was a work of fiction based on Sinclair’s very biased opinion of workers’ conditions.  It literally told of workers falling into vats and sold as lard to the public.  It’s not even an appealing work of fiction.  Ironically enough, the book blames this lack of oversight on corrupt government inspectors.  Even though Congress never found any proof to these poor conditions, the bad publicity from The Jungle caused the meat industry to decline via the free market.  So, what did the meat industry do in response?  They actually lobbied Congress to add regulations to their market to satisfy the public outrage.  And whenever the government and big business align themselves together you have the unholy alliance of crony capitalism.  These new regulations caused larger businesses to nose out their smaller competitors in the process and raised the price of meat.

To this day we still have the goddamn Federal Meat Inspection Act for no damn reason other than a fictional book that was written on the matter over a hundred years go.  Let that seep in for a moment.  Then again,  I suppose it could be worse.  Rachel Carlson’s fictitious book Silent Spring is actually responsible for the deaths of maybe millions of people.

[conservativedreamer]

#FeelTheBern

[conservativedreamer]

Why accepting migrants and refugees can be a win for everyone

Now imagine you have a different kind of decision to take. Whether to risk the safety of your family on a dangerous journey because the alternative is persecution at home. Whether to put your child on a boat on rough seas because you see reaching the other side as the only hope of survival. Whether to pack up and leave everything you have ever known because you can no longer feed yourself or your family.

These are the decisions faced by millions of women, men and children across the world today – decisions that no person should ever have to make – because we are in the midst of the biggest refugee and migration challenge of our time.

The numbers are astronomical. More than 60 million people have been forcibly displaced either within countries or internationally. There are 19.6 million refugees – a 24 per cent increase since 2000. Half of them are children. Last year, the number of migrants who have left their countries in search of a better life reached 225 million.

When it comes to refugees and migrants, misperceptions and misinformation abound, not least about where people are moving. Almost 90 per cent of the world’s refugees are hosted in developing countries – and just eight countries host more than half the world’s refugees. This is a huge challenge, one that countries on the front lines of the crisis are struggling to shoulder.

It is time for the international community to develop a more effective global response. That is why I am working to bring countries together behind a humane and coordinated approach, one that will serve the common interest of all nations, uphold human rights and international law, and achieve a global sharing of responsibility.

When I write about the situation of refugees and migrants, I do so from personal experience. I myself was once an internally displaced person. As a child in war-torn Korea, I saw my village destroyed. My family and others were forced to flee our homes. We survived on food and medicine from UNICEF. We studied with textbooks provided by UNESCO. And of course, the troops of many nations secured our freedom while fighting under the United Nations flag.

When managed properly, the movement of migrants and acceptance of refugees can be a win for everyone. Migration is and always has been a major contributor to economic growth – through remittances, entrepreneurship, strengthened trade relations and more. Refugees are famously devoted to education and self-reliance. These are brave, resilient and forward-looking people who bring needed skills and energy to their new societies.

I have met with migrants and refugees around the world and seen first-hand that they are survivors and strivers, eager to contribute to their host communities. With the right policies, we can optimize the benefits and work towards migration that is safe, orderly and regular.

I am deeply concerned about the rise of xenophobic and nationalistic rhetoric that demonizes refugees and migrants.  We must avoid statements, policies and practices that promote intolerance and fear, which only serve to divide communities and sow instability.

Refugee and migrant crises are far from insurmountable but they cannot be addressed by countries acting alone.  As we increase global cooperation, we must also do more to resolve the cycles of conflict, violence, and poverty that force people to flee in the first place.

This month, I am convening the World Humanitarian Summit in Istanbul to seek commitments from governments to address human suffering. Then, in September, a special meeting of the UN General Assembly is a historic opportunity for countries to come together behind a more humane and coordinated approach to migration and refugee movements.

We all have a role to play in strengthening our common humanity. No matter where you live, you can help by speaking out against hateful rhetoric and harmful stereotypes of refugees and migrants – in your community, at work or at school.

As a child, the United Nations was a lifeline for me and my family; a beacon of hope. Today, I will spare no effort to ensure that the United Nations does everything in its power to help refugees and migrants everywhere.

Take a look at the new UN website on refugees and migrants.

Find out about the work of the UN Refugee Agency.

Get details on the World Humanitarian Summit.

[conservativedreamer]

“The Flag Gave Us Hope that We Would Have a State” After escaping mass killings and the liquidation of her ghetto in Poland, Frieda Katz managed to survive until liberation and eventually made her way to Wetzlar, a Displaced Persons Camp in Germany where she worked in a sewing factory. She joined a Zionist youth movement in the camp and married her counselor Moshe Katz. In the factory she made this flag from sheets and said that “the flag gave us hope that we would have a state.” Frieda and Moshe Katz (pictured here) were able to come to Israel finally in 1949, bringing their beloved flag with them. They recently donated the flag to Yad Vashem so its story can be preserved and shared for generations to come.

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[conservativedreamer]

Capitalism is not an ‘ism.’ It is closer to being the opposite of an ‘ism,’ because it is simply the freedom of ordinary people to make whatever economic transactions they can mutually agree to.

Thomas Sowell (via philosophicalconservatism)

[conservativedreamer]

Aww I love this!! 😍😍 

[conservativedreamer]

Man eats marijuana candy, hallucinates, murders wife

Absolutely horrible.

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