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TheDailyGold Premium Update #611

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The 26-page update was published and emailed to subscribers Sunday early AM.

The sector outlook is covered and the update includes a report on a junior company with 10-bagger potential in a bull market and 3-4 bagger potential in a stable Gold price environment.

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Bat Knob Personalization Contest

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Interview: Levels to Watch in Metals & Miners

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Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold shares the levels we should be watching as metals investors if the pullback we have all been waiting for is here. As long as gold and stocks limit the downside the bullish argument remains.

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Ecommerce and digital marketing companies battle for the digital consumer in 'an Amazon world'

E-commerce M&A value up by $20 billion 2018 vs. 2017Digital marketing M&A total value achieved $11 billion in 2H2018, more than double first half valueLondon, UK – 28 February 2019. The latest E-Commerce and Digital Marketing M&A Market Reports from international technology mergers and acquisitions advisor, Hampleton Partners, reveal that 2018 recorded a $20 billion increase in disclosed e-commerce M&A value compared to 2017, boosted by mega-deals such as Walmart’s ambitious $16 billion purchase of... Source: RealWire from bryansteven http://www.realwire.com/releases/Ecommerce-and-digital-marketing-companies-battle-for-the-digital-consumer

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Bullish Sentiment Won’t Prevent a Breakout in Gold

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      Back in 2013 I recall having a bearish view on the stock market due to extremely bullish sentiment readings. The market completely ignored that, made a major breakout through 13 year resistance and continued running for years.

Lesson learned.

Turning to Gold, we find something similar during major breakouts in 2005, 2007 and 2009. In the chart below we plot Gold along with its net speculative position (as a percentage of open interest) and the widely followed daily sentiment index.

Gold & Gold Sentiment 2002-2011

  In August 2005 and the start of 2006, the net speculative position in Gold reached (excluding 2004) what were the highest levels since the start of the data in 1987.

In late 2007, the net speculative position was not at an extreme but the daily sentiment index spent quite a bit of time around 90% bulls immediately prior to Gold breaking out to a new all time high.

Both the net speculative position and daily sentiment index were very elevated in the fall of 2009, immediately prior to Gold breaking out above its 2008 peak. The net speculative position then was at its second highest level since 1987.

As of February 5, when the Gold price closed at $1319/oz, the net speculative position in Gold was 27% of open interest. Gold gained $30/oz since then but that is well below the 55%-60% peak levels seen in 2016, 2012, 2009 and 2004-2006.

While that is encouraging, history shows that if and when Gold breaks its resistance ($1375-$1400/oz) sentiment indicators figure to be close to bullish extremes. When a market is coming out of a bad bear market or on the cusp of a multi-year breakout, bullish sentiment isn’t necessarily bearish.

In fact, a market that cannot register bullish sentiment extremes is one that may not be strong enough to breakout.

Circling back to the present, the one thing that can prevent Gold from breaking out is renewed underperformance against the stock market. In the chart below we plot Gold and GDX against the S&P 500.

Gold & Gold Stocks vs. S&P 500

  Precious metals stopped outperforming the stock market in late December and the Gold to S&P 500 ratio appears weak and likely to weaken further.

The S&P 500 recently cleared its moving average resistance and its advance decline line hit a new all time high. These things suggest higher prices in the near future and that, rather than bullish sentiment would provide resistance to Gold over the next few months.

Although Gold will not break resistance in that scenario, we should keep an eye on the gold stocks which have shown improving breadth and relative strength. Plenty of great values remain and there is still plenty of time to position yourself to take advantage. If a huge breakout is coming later in the year then the next few months may be your last chance. To learn what stocks we are buying and have 3x to 5x potential consider learning more about our premium service.

  from bryansteven http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheDailyGold/~3/UpbCFOb6RGM/

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TheDailyGold Premium Update #610

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The 26-page update, TDG #610 was published and emailed to subscribers by Sunday AM.

In this 26-page update covered the near-term outlook for the sector and what could be in store for the spring.

There is again an ample Q&A section where we comment on a number of companies.

We also want to note that we’ve covered a ground floor opportunity in a silver company.

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Interview: Watch These Things as Gold Tests Resistance

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Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold shares the changes in the charts that are pointing to a much more bullish scenario for the precious metals.

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Top 10 Trading & Portfolio Management Rules

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In this updated report we provide and comment on 10 rules for trading and managing a junior gold portfolio. Some (but not all) of these rules will apply to all portfolios including those with only a handful of positions. However, for the most part these rules are for a broad portfolio. 

If I could narrow it down to only three it would be….

from bryansteven http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheDailyGold/~3/gDvzjR9O76Y/

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A first: Leadmark AI Platform provides precise response forecast for ad campaigns

Machine learning technology predicts results for brands in real time A new artificial intelligence platform offers a solution to the perennial problem of flawed calculation of campaign effectiveness, effectively eliminating the chronic conundrum of budget wastage. Leadmark, an AI marketing platform, provides internationally an effective solution that steers ad spend to the optimum promotion channels, while simultaneously measuring ROI to be attributed to sales or other response KPIs. The results provided have an accuracy rate... Source: RealWire from bryansteven http://www.realwire.com/releases/Leadmark-AI-Platform-provides-precise-response-forecast-for-ad-campaigns

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CleverTouch Marketing Listed in the Sunday Times Top 100 Best Companies to Work For 2019

Hampshire-based Marketing Technology consultancy recognised as an employer with an ‘outstanding’ commitment to workplace engagementAlresford, UK, February 21st, 2019 – CleverTouch Marketing, Europe’s most respected Marketing Technology consulting and service provider, has been featured in the Sunday Times Best Companies to Work For 2019, scoring 733.5 on the Best Companies Index, it was announced today. CleverTouch Marketing launched its campaign to become a Sunday Times 100 Best Company back in June, with aspirations of making... Source: RealWire from bryansteven http://www.realwire.com/releases/CleverTouch-Marketing-Listed-in-the-Sunday-Times-Top-100-Best-Companies

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Greg Weldon on What’s Driving Gold & Where it’s Headed

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  Click Here to Buy Greg’s 147-page report for only $99.

  Gregory Thomas Weldon is in his 31st year observing and analyzing the global financial markets.

His pedigree includes a trial-by-fire introduction to the industry spending three-years as the point-man in the COMEX Gold and Silver pits for one of the largest COMEX Gold and Silver floor brokers of the 1970’s and 80’s, Stanley B. Bell and Company.

He left the floor upon the introduction of US stock index futures and international bond futures markets in Europe, and went to work as an institutional broker for Lehman Brothers.

It was at Lehman where Greg met broker-turned-trader Louis Moore Bacon and shortly thereafter left Lehman when Moore Capital was formed. At Moore, under the tutelage of Louis and Zack Bacon, Greg really honed his skills as a trader, purveyor of macro-markets and portfolio-risk manager.

After profitably managing ‘in-house’ money at Moore Capital, Greg made the move to the birthplace of many great traders of that era including Louis Bacon’s mentor, Paul Tudor Jones, Commodities Corporation, where he spent two years as one of the firm’s top performing risk-adjusted traders.

When Goldman Sachs bought out the partnership of Commodities Corporation in 1997, Greg started Weldon Financial, and launched “Weldon’s Money Monitor”, and “The Metal Monitor”, products that have more recently evolved into the all-encompassing “WeldonLIVE (with TradeLAB).” Greg has successfully navigated some of the most treacherous markets in history, most often guiding clients into macro-market trends and profitable trading strategies, repeatedly, year-after-year, over the 18-year history of producing top-shelf, thought provoking, global-macro market research.

Indeed, Greg authored the book “Gold Trading Boot Camp”, published in November of 2006, in which he very accurately predicted that the US credit markets would implode, that the Fed would purchase trillions of dollars of US government debt, and that Gold prices would more than double from their then-level of $550 per ounce. In fact, most everything Greg predicted would happen happened. Moreover, “Gold Trading Boot Camp” is also a “how-to” manual offering insights into the ‘job’ of trading the futures markets.

Greg has appeared on most every financial-focused television channel, and has been a regular in the past on several specific financial market television shows. Greg does the occasional radio interview, and offers customized, in-depth, comprehensive financial market conference presentations and speeches that leave his audience abuzz with a feeling of high-energy, and an abundance of factual information.

  Greg’s Website & Subscription Information 

WeldonOnline.com

Weldon Live Subscription Information

Twitter: @WeldonLive

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Interview: Long-Term Gold Chart is Very Exciting Above $1400

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Jordan discusses his latest article where he points out that the signs are close for declaring a new bull market. The indicators are all showing positive. Both GDX and GDXJ have surged above their long term moving averages. We still need to rally up to and break resistance levels but we are close and the evidence is mounting. Lastly, he is looking for the ratio of gold compared to the stock markets to rise which is a classic bull market sign.

Time Stamp References:

[1:20] – Jordan discusses his latest analysis.

[2:40] – Gold needs to re-test resistance levels.

[5:10] – Basing period and potential upward potential.

[7:00] – Long-term gold chart is very exciting.

[8:50] – Watch for a breakout.

[11:00] – Risks of being a contrarian.

[16:30] – Bull Market is almost confirmed.

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Interview: You Can Still Find Quality Stocks That Have Not Made Big Moves Yet

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Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com is well-known for his commentary on the gold market. In this interview, Jordan shares not only his thoughts on where gold is headed but also regarding how he approaches junior gold stock investing. Jordan provides an overview profile of his ideal junior gold stock, offers his commentary on mining jurisdictions he prefers, the state of junior mining finance and more.

[0:05] Introduction

[1:45] Where is gold headed?

[7:45] What are gold stocks telegraphing about the direction of the gold price?

[10:30] Did Jordan accurately time gold’s Dec 2015/Jan 2016 bottom?

[15:36] What is the ideal profile of a junior gold stock investment?

[20:46] Commentary on gold optionality plays

[23:24] What mining jurisdictions does Jordan focus on?

[25:46] Jordan’s thoughts on the current state of junior mining finance.

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Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template

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    Roughly one year ago and prior to that we observed that the gold stocks could be following the recovery template from what we deemed a “mega bear market.”

We define that as a bear market that is over two and a half years in time and over 80% in price. It cuts both ways.

The gold stocks from 2011 to January 2016 had declined more than 80% and for more than four years. It was a textbook mega bear market.

The sharp recovery in 2016 quickly faded and left us wondering if there was a historical comparison.

Turns out, there are three strong and relevant comparisons.

The housing sector declined 81% from its peak in 2005 to the market bottom in March 2009. Then it rebounded 137% before correcting 42% over 18 months. The correction ended with a false new low.

  The S&P 500 crashed nearly 90% over a nearly three year period. Then it rebounded 177% before correcting for 20 months. That correction also ended in a false new low.

  Thailand from 1994 through 2000 is quite similar to the gold stocks from 2011 through 2016. Before its 200% move higher from 2002 through 2003, Thailand corrected 54% over a 2-year and 5-month period.

Note that its final low at the end of 2001 could have been a false new low if not for the initial sharp correction down to L1.

  The template for a recovery from a mega bear market is as follows.

Following the bear market low, a sharp rally begins that lasts only six to twelve months. Then the market endures a significant correction that lasts a minimum of 18 months and ends with a breakdown to new lows (which ends up being a false move).

Then the major wave higher begins.

Here is the data on those three examples, another one (Mortgage sector) and the gold stocks (GDX).

  Note how the time between the bear market bottom and the correction low (for the gold stocks) is almost identical to three of the four examples. Also, note how the second leg higher surpassed the initial rebound in each example (ex S&P 500).

Here is how GDX stacks up (visually) with the others. Its rebound (and potentially second leg higher) began after the false breakdown in September.

Last week we asked the question whether gold stocks would correct or consolidate in a bullish fashion. The evidence now favors a bullish consolidation. As a result, we are looking at potential near-term upside targets of $1350-$1360 for Gold, $25 for GDX and $37 for GDXJ.

The short-term trend is healthy and this historical comparison is table-pounding bullish. We’ve been increasing our exposure and will continue to do so. Plenty of great values remain and there is time to position yourself to take advantage. To learn what stocks we are buying and think have 3x to 5x potential consider learning more about our premium service.  

  from bryansteven http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheDailyGold/~3/0T1UwLJo6vE/

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TheDailyGold Premium Update #609

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The 29-page update was published and emailed to subscribers in Saturday afternoon.

In this update we include a report on a mid-cap company that we think has 3x-4x upside should the sector make a breakout in the next 12-18 months. We share two calculations to arrive at that upside target.

We also include comments on a stock we own that we think currently is perhaps one of the cheapest juniors we can find with the most upside. It boasts value, optionality and strong exploration potential.

  from bryansteven http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheDailyGold/~3/TvcBRxI2Z_0/

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Interview: Insight into Gold, S&P 500, US dollar & Gold/S&P 500 Ratio

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Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold shares his insights on how the US markets and USD are holding the PM prices in check. He outlines what needs to happen for gold to break to the upside. We also spend some time on the gold to US markets and gold to silver charts.

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Interview: What Will Drive the Next Big Bull Run

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In this video I talked with Jordan Roy-Byrne who runs the website thedailygold.com to get his take on what is happening now with gold prices on the technical analysis charts. The price of gold is above $1300 and is dealing with a long-term resistance zone in the $1330-$1350 area. Jordan revealed what the catalyst will be that will take gold prices through those levels and create a massive bull run as the stock market masses begin to chase things up as they always do.

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