#pedro has potential but I’m not sold on joseph

[thesportssoundoff]

“History for one man, history between two women and a load of decent fights leading up to it” A UFC 215 Preview

The UFC returns to PPV with the sort of card that suggests that they need this new TV deal for more than just dollars and cents. This is a good card from the top to the bottom. It has two title fights, both highly intriguing in their own rights, and then a collection of fights on the PPV portion that either have divisional relevance (RDA/Magny, Pedro/Latifi) or the potential to be a slugfest (Stephens/Melendez). The free TV portion pits some of Canada's best hopes for being new leaders in Canadian MMA (Arjen Bhullar and Gavin Tucker) against vet competition (Luis Henrique and Rick Glenn). Also on this card you have some good WMMA fights and some interesting on paper fights pitting Canadian veterans against unheralded opposition. It's a good card----but is it the kind of card you pay $60 for? It's easy to argue that it isn't---but it's also easier to argue that there's no alternative. The average UFC event when worked out on paper roughly accounts for about 2 million dollars. A UFC PPV that does around 150,000 buys at $60 when you remove the PPV providers cut is about $4 million and change plus whatever they get for airing prelims and etc etc. It's just too big a financial relief to put it on PPV. So you're stuck with a card that might not be worth the PPV entirely (although if you bought UFC 208, 212 or 213,  I don't want to hear that shit) but also has no viable alternate. Now with that said, let's get the real meat and potatoes of this bowl of fruits and nuts.

Fights: 12

Debuts:   1 (Arjan Bhullar)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: (Junioe Dos Santos vs Francis Ngannou cancelled)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): (Mighty Mouse, Valentina Shevchenko, Amanda Nunes, Neil Magny, Rafael Dos Anjos, Ilir Latifi, Gilbert Melendez, Jeremy Stephens, Sara McMann, Wilson Reis, Henry Cejudo)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:  4 (Henry Cejudo, Mitch Clarke, Jeremy Stephens and Gilbert Melendez)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 6 (Ray Borg, Valentina Shevchenko, Tyson Pedro, Amanda Nunes, Demetrious Johnson, Kajan Johnson)

Stat Monitor for 2017:

Debuting Fighters (Current number: 24-23)- Arjan Bhullar

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 17-25)- 0

Second Fight (Current number: 22-27)-  Gavin Tucker

Cage Corrosion (11-5)- Kajan Johnson, Mitch Clarke, Sarah Moras, Gil Melendez, Ilir Latifi

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- I'll try to elaborate more on this but what necessarily IS history in the context of MMA? Like if you think about it, the Guinness Book of World Records is filled with "historic" records but do you care about half of them? Even pro sports there are records that people don't give much of a shit about. So what is history for MMA? What is being the champion with the most title defenses in a sport like this really worth? You'd assume a lot given how I'd venture a guess and say MOST champs can't go three title defenses in a row----but is this a record people care about? If so, how do you get them to care?

2- There has to be a part of everybody who is simply tired of talking about this that or the other thing when it pertains to the drawing power of Mighty Mouse. Either you appreciate his gifts and his greatness or you don't and at this point, the only people who should be worried with how many PPV he sells are the UFC and Mighty Mouse.

3- Just for the sake of argument; a brief comparison between the title defenses that Anderson Silva has had and the title defenses that Mighty Mouse has had. Caveats of course being different era, more active contenders, less shows, established weight class etc etc etc. PLUS you have to weed through the fights Anderson Silva had at 205 as well:

A. Silva- 47-18  UFC record at time of title defense; 1 undefeated in org, 0 undefeated overall; longest winning streak- 5 (Patrick Cote); rematches 3 (Franklin, Sonnen and Okami)

D. Johnson- 40-12 UFC record at the time of title defense; 6 undefeated in org; 0 undefeated overall; longest winning streak- 4 (Kyoji Horiguchi and Henry Cejudo); rematches 2 (Benavidez and Dodson)

4- Is there a backup plan in place if Ray Borg misses weight as he's been want to do in the past?

5- We sometimes rail on MMA but when the best fight the best, it can be really fun. After watching Shevchenko and Nunes run through the 135 lb division throughout all of 2016 and the start of 2017, there's no doubt these two are the best 135ers currently going. They're not the stars that Rousey and Tate were (and Holm by extension) BUT they're better fighters as evidenced by the success they've had. Nunes has come a long way (with some flaws that remain since her Strikeforce tenure) while Shevchenko continues to be a consistent ass kicker. They match up well stylistically, both fighters have the ability to finish the other and it's the perfect matchup of slow and steady in Shevchenko vs the aggressive immediacy of Nunes. The weight cut failure/sinusitis (depending on who you ask) doesn't help matters but we're getting the fight and that's what counts.

6- So.....who is the #1 contender post EITHER title fight? That's less of a problem at 135 lbs where Holm can jump down/GDR can pinch hit for the spot/Rocky Pennington is hanging out around. Even Ketlen Vieira could probably get that fight if she beats Sara McMann. It's a little less clear at 125 lbs where Mighty Mouse has beaten, well, everyone. Sergio Pettis is a fresh face although I don't think that fight would do remotely well on PPV or even on free TV. Same could be said for Ben Nguyen although Nguyen has a well earned fight finisher rep.

7- If they kill the 125 lb division if Mighty Mouse wins again, you cool with that?

8- Gavin Tucker looked very, very good in his UFC debut. Even though he's 31, he represents the slightest glimmer of hope for a UFC Canadian scene that's been floundering since GSP left. The UFC is giving him a moderate step up in Rick Glenn; one of those guys who might epitomize a AAAA fighter (too good for the regional circuit, not good enough for the bigger orgs).

9- Speaking of the future of Canadian MMA, Arjan Bhullar makes his debut. Just to show the difference here; Bhullar at 31 would be tied for the 4th youngest HW in the top 10 behind Volkov, Struve and Ngannou. He'd be tied for 4th OLDEST in the featherweight division (Yair, Aldo, KZ, Moicano and Ortego are all younger), Stephens being 31 as well.

10-Henry Cejudo showcased a wealth of improvement from his earlier UFC fights when he took Joseph Benavidez. He didn't get the decision (which most people disagreed with) but the improvement was there. He'll draw Wilson Reis who is about a level above the guys he was beating pre-DJ but below Mighty Mouse and Benavidez. Cejudo is still young, he's still improving and chances are he can maybe make a run in the division again. Assuming he doesn't miss weight/pull out/lose a winnable fight here.

11- Is it wrong to be a stick in the mud re: Gil Melendez vs Jeremy Stephens? Gilbert has had a lot of great fights in his career BUT his UFC run consists of really only one great performance vs Diego Sanchez. Caveats about Mexico's altitude and Benson Henderson aside, Gil's just really not the same dude anymore. Jeremy Stephens has historically been a fighter who has two types of fights; the fight where he brawls his way to a killer finish or a boring fight where he's decisioned/wins a decision. He is a guy who hasn't evolved despite his success; fighting the same way he has since 2010. Now having said that, perhaps there's a chance that the two stylistically match up for some kind of crazy war. I'm just not sold on that being the case; we've seen Stephens booked in these kind of fights before (Melvin Guillard, Donald Cerrone, Cub Swanson, Max Holloway off the top of my head) and it always ends with him being handled.

12- The quality of the 205 lb division has been dragged over jagged rocks plenty of times but Tyson Pedro seems like he could be a guy who has a bright future. The Aussie is undefeated in the UFC, both by finishes, and as we're seeing Khalil Rountree is no joke. The question becomes whether he can handle a serious step up in terms of style which is what Ilir Latifi represents. Latifi is a strong dude who doesn't need to hit clean to hurt folks and he's got an active ground game to match. He is a stern test for Mr. Pedro.

Must Wins

Demetrious Johnson

No duh. This is a must win. History is on the line here and a record that would stand until the end of time is on the line. Let's see if he can get it.

Ray Borg

Mighty Mouse is going for the record. That's without question a massive must win scenario---but a win by Mighty Mouse might legitimately end the 125 lb division in my estimation. That would suck for all involved. Ray Borg wins and there's an IMMEDIATE hot rivalry which would stretch the lifespan of this division out somewhat. Beyond that, Borg as a champion might convince a few new people to give 125 lbs a chance given how the issue seems to be about Mighty Mouse superficially and maybe not so much the division.

Tyson Pedro

I thought about Amanda Nunes here but I get the feeling that all roads will end positively there regarding her and the UFC. Tyson Pedro is a different kind of situation entirely; if he wins, 205 lbs has a new hot face on the scene at a time where Jon Jones is gone (for now), Rumble is gone, DC is going to be gone soon and Gustafsson fights every once every leap year. Pedro is a fight finisher who is 25 years old in a division lacking other fight finishers. He pretty much has to win.

Five Fights You Shouldn’t Miss

1- Ray Borg vs Demetrious Johnson

History is on the line. This is the fight to see.

2- Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko

The first fight wasn't just good, it was the launching point for Amanda Nunes' career as it stands. Now they meet again with Nunes as the dominant champion who just iced the two most famous female mixed martial artists ever and Shevchenko chasing the only woman to beat her in MMA. It's a perfect story.

3- Sara McMann vs Ketlen Vieira

Ronda Rousey is not coming through that door. Miesha Tate is not coming through that door. Holly Holm is a 145er now (I suppose). You need new talent in the ranks and that ultimately means that Ketlen Vieira is of importance. The 26 year old Brazilian faces Sara McMann who at this point kind of is what she is. She's a frustrating fighter who when she puts it all together could beat anybody---but seems reticent to put it all together.

4- Henry Cejudo vs Wilson Reis

First, the challenge is on Reis to show he's not completely cooked and burnt out after getting thrashed vs MM. Wilson has had a long career and has fought up in weight, down in weight and in the middle. He's a good veteran fighter but he's got a lot of wear and tear on him. Henry Cejudo looked great in a loss to Joe Benavidez----so which Cejudo shows up? The one who upped his game vs Benavidez or the dude who slept through fights with Juissier Formiga and Chris Cariaso?

5- Rafael Dos Anjos vs Neil Magny

Tarec Saffiedine was a decent challenge for RDA at 170 lbs. Now comes a more perplexing challenge; a long limbed guy who exists in that "good enough to win but not great enough to win in one way." Magny has no true calling card; as a striker he's able to mix things up well enough. He has an understanding of angles and a variety of tools he uses to outpoint folks. He doesn't have the power to finish a guy outright and whenever he gets touched, he seems to react in the exact opposite fashion you'd want someone to. On the ground, he's good enough to challenge with subs and get to his feet but not good enough to stop takedowns and when it becomes chain for chain, he loses.  Dos Anjos on paper is good enough to beat Magny but in the words of Kevin McHale; good big beats good small every single time.

#MMA #UFC #UFC 215 #Mighty Mouse #Borg #Cejudo #RDA #Valentina Shevchenko #Amanda Nunes