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uncloseted · 2 years

Note

Is it actually worth it to invest in stocks? Not like crypto, but like five dollars a month with something like "acorns" (I saw it recommended on that budgeting app "mint" that I use)

Oh also with the stocks question, is it worth it to get a 401k or IRA or whatever? Thanks xxxx

Quick disclaimer up front: I'm not an investment professional, advisor, or financial planner. This is just what I've gathered from the research I've done, so make sure to do your own research before making any financial decisions. If you're interested in learning more about investment options, Investopedia is a good place to start.

Whether or not you should invest depends somewhat on your personal financial situation, but in general, it's a good idea as long as you're approaching it the right way.

That said, investing in general is a good idea. Investing allows you to "put your money to work"- basically, it allows you to use money you're not using to make more money. For example, if you invest $5000 in the stock market and get a 10% return reach year, after 5 years, you'll have $8,053. And if you contributed $100 each month for those 5 years, at the end you'd have $15,394. If you do that for 30 years, your investment will grow to $284,799. That's a huge amount of money for a pretty small up-front investment. If you contributed $100 up front and then $5 a month for 5 years, you'd have $556 at the end of that 5 year period. The potential for money to "grow" is why investing is worth it. There are a few other reasons why people invest their money as well. It allows people to save for retirement, it can help them to reach their fiancial goals for the future, and it can allow people to reduce the amount of money that they're taxed on.

There are a number of different options for how you can invest money. The investment option that will work best for you depends on how much risk you're willing to take on- the chance that your investment will produce a lower-than-expected return or that your investment will lose value. Investing in something like crypto is high risk, since the market is volatile, but it can also be high-return. For example, in 2021, Bitcoin increased in value by 63%, but in 2022, it lost more than 50% of its value. Something like a saving's account is very low-risk, but the return is also low, about 0.1% a year.

I want to take a quick detour here to talk about high-risk investments. I think a lot of people, especially young people, treat investing kind of like gambling, where it's a get-rich-quick scheme. They're interested in high-risk, high-reward investments because they think that they can become millionaires if they just pick the right stocks. But that's not really the case. A 2020 report found that over a 15-year period, nearly 90% of actively managed investment funds failed to beat the market- meaning that if a person had invested their money in the S&P 500, they would have made more money than if they invested their money with a professional who's paid to pick stocks. So unless you're an professional with a great track record, hand-picking stocks to invest in is almost always a bad idea. It's unlikely that you'll buy stock for a "unicorn" company, and if you're being given advice to invest in a certain asset, it's almost definitely too late for that advice to be profitable. It's boring, but the best approach is usually to invest in something safer and to wait for it to become profitable over time.

The first type of "investment" you'll want to make is just a saving's account. This account should have enough savings to get you through six months of being unemployed. Once you have a "rainy day" account, then you can start thinking about other investment options.

Here are a few investment options you might consider, and a few pros and cons for each one:

Savings account: an account you have at a bank or a credit union

Risk free

very low interest rates- currently about 0.1%

can withdraw money whenever you want

Certificate of Deposit (CD): an investment product where you let banks borrow your money for a low interest rate over a period of time

low risk

better interest rates than a savings account- currently about 0.4% for a 1-year CD and 0.6% for a 5 year CD.

can't withdraw money over the length of the period of time where the bank has the money. This time period can be between one month and several years. The longer the period of time, the higher the interest rate that you get.

Bonds: loans that are made to raise capital for projects or to finance business operations.

lower returns than stocks- between 5-6% for long-term government bonds

some risk: the borrower might not be able to pay the money back.

bonds can struggle to keep up with inflation. For example, if a bond pays a 4% yield and inflation is 3%, the bond's real rate of return is 1%.

Bonds from governments are low-risk, since they're unlikely to run out of money. Bonds from companies like Apple, Amazon, or Netflix have higher risk, but can also have higher returns.

The return on a bond will also depend on the length of the bond. Short term bonds have a smaller return than long term bonds.

Stocks: an investment where you purchase a small part of a company and get access to the company's earnings.

a compounded return of 7-8% each year, accounting for inflation

can pull money out any time if you need it for something else

if the company becomes very successful, you can sell your stocks for more money than you spent on them

higher risk, since companies can lose value or go bankrupt

the stock market can crash, such as in 2008-2009

investments are not insured, so if the stock market crashes, you lose the money you had invested

you will likely see loses over short periods of time, but over long periods of time, stocks are typically profitable

risk can be lowered if you invest in a fund

Mutual Fund : stocks from many different companies are pooled together in one fund

reduces risk because it allows investors to not be dependent on the success of one company

Index Fund: buys stocks and assets that make up a "market index" such as the S&P 500 or Dow Jones

reduces risk because these companies are stable

requires less management than other types of stock investing

Cryptocurrency:

high risk, since the crypto market is volatile

high reward; individuals who bought Bitcoin for ten cents in 2009 could have sold for $17,527 in 2018

difficult to predict when to sell

Retirement plans: a plan that allows you to save for retirement. It's important to have one of these plans because Social Security benefits are typically not enough to live off of once a person retires.

401K: a retirement plan that is offered by an employer

you contribute a portion of your paycheck or income to the 401k and choose savings or investment options to help your account grow

contributions are pre-tax, which reduces annual taxable income and tax liability, but 401k is taxed when you withdraw it

federal legal protection

many employers will match the contributions that you make to your 401k, which doubles the money you have in your account

if you want to withdraw your money early, you have to pay a fee (typically 10%)

higher annual contributions than an IRA

IRAs: a retirement savings tool

no matching from employer

future withdrawals are tax-free for Roth IRAs but are taxed upon withdrawal for traditional IRAs

maximum annual contribution of $6000

more investing options than a 401k

more control over costs

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sinrau · 4 years

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https://link.medium.com/w3EzDMrcj8

There’s no other way to say it, so let me just speak frankly. Thanks to Donald Trump’s stunning lack of leadership, America’s in a state that can only be described as free fall. Rarely in history has a nation descended into chaos, depression, despair, and mass death at all. But this fast? It’s unprecedented — outside of true authoritarian implosions, that is.

How bad are things in America? Unbelievably, shockingly, incredibly bad. Let’s begin with Coronavirus, and then proceed through economics, to politics and society.

America recorded its highest number of cases ever just yesterday. 76,000. Seventy six thousand. That’s edging perilously close to the threshold at which a society breaks down — somewhere north of 100,000 or so. At that point, schools and universities shut down, hospitals are overwhelmed, depression sets in, job losses go permanent, there’s a widespread and long-term loss of confidence, faith, and trust. “Wait,” you might say, “all of that’s already happening!” Exactly. The threshold is being reached, day by day. A vicious spiral of social collapse is now setting in.

So how bad is 76,000 new cases a day — apart from igniting a chain reaction of social collapse — in global terms? America still has the highest number of new cases in the world — higher than Brazil’s 50K, or India’s 30K. where individual Red States have worse outbreaks than many of the world’s poor countries with far higher populations. Florida, for example, has close to 15,000 new cases alone. That’s more than Pakistan, where even if you quadruple the official number, 2,000, Florida’s close to more than twice that.

The EU — as a whole — had about 5,000 new cases. America has more than fifteen times the number of cases Europe has. Texas alone had more than twice the number of cases — at more than 10K — than the entire EU. The population of Texas is 7% of the EU’s.

Coronavirus is a catastrophe of epic, surreal, nightmarish, global proportions in America. America is now the world’s biggest Coronavirus incubator — and its greatest failure. Sure, Brazil and India are about to give it a run for its money — but that isn’t saying much, only getting to the root of the problem. All these countries have authoritarian, nationalist, neofascist leaders — whose supremacist, Darwinist pseudo-philosophies — the weak must perish so the strong survive — have allowed a lethal pandemic to go thermonuclear.

That brings me to deaths. There was a faction of Americans who, just a few weeks, ago, seemed to glibly believe that even if the virus ticked back up, deaths wouldn’t. The unspoken reasoning was, again, Social Darwinist: “All the weak — the elderly, frail, sick — have been killed off! The death rate won’t go back up! So there’s nothing to worry about!” This was the illogic and amorality of the American Idiot at its most egregious.

The death rate is now spiking back upwards.

After falling to a low of about an average of 500ish per day, it’s back to close to 1,000.

The death rate lags the infection rate by about two to three weeks. And so as the virus exploded in America over the last two to three weeks, it was eminently predictable that the death rate was going to spike, too. That is exactly what happened: after a short lag, deaths are now exploding all over again. They are going to continue exploding, just like the daily infection numbers are.

Why? Because Covid is a lethal virus. In America, it has a mortality rate of up to about five percent so far. Now, perhaps that number doesn’t take into account those with Coronavirus who haven’t been tested. Go ahead and make that number lower. 4%. 3%. Fine — half it. 2.5%. That’s still shockingly high. That’s orders of magnitude more deadly than the flu. It’s not the flu. It’s deadly. It doesn’t just kill off the elderly and weak. It kills, period. Sure, you might have a smaller chance of dying if you’re young and strong. Or you might not, depending on how much of a dose you get, and how fast you get treatment. Covid is not the joke it’s been made out to be.

That brings me to political leadership. Nobody much in America seems to have done the most basic work when it comes to understanding Coronavirus, certainly not its leaders. Why isn’t the mortality rate to date — which is unbelievably high — the stuff of everyday knowledge? Even if you want to halve it, by imagining that testing isn’t widespread enough to establish a decent estimate, you still get to a mortality rate of 2.5 percent.That’s still…shockingly high. The flu, by contrast, has a mortality rate of about 0.1%.

And yet when that kind of basic knowledge hasn’t sunk into people’s brains — especially American Idiots — you can expect that people won’t understand they’re playing with fire, and they’re going to get burned.

Nobody is discussing these basic facts because, well, even the good guys are too busy trying to fight the Idiot-in-Chief’s stupidity. A decent President — just a sane and civilized human being, whatever their politics — would have said three things by now.

“This is not the flu, my fellow Americans. This is a killer virus with a mortality rate fifty times that of the flu. You are at real and serious risk of dying, and so are your loved ones. It does lasting damage, too. You don’t want to get this virus. Everything you do these days should begin with that. And then you should think: you don’t want to spread this virus, either. We are in serious trouble, and we need to work together now to get out of it.”

But Trump, of course, hasn’t said any of that. He’s done just the opposite — denied, minimized, pretended it will magically go away, told people to drink bleach…and then he’s headed off to the golf course. What the? So of course Americans have no idea how bad Coronavirus really is — who’s telling them? Not their President. Not their political leaders. And I don’t read about it in the pages of American media, either.

Hence, without an understanding of how deadly and serious this disease really is, three fatal things have happened.

One, America still has no national strategy to beat the virus — without which it will just go on exploding, which is what global success stories like New Zealand and South Korea tell us, having had swift, decisive national strategies. America’s having a Coronapocalypse precisely because even now there’s nothing — nothing — resembling a national strategy of best practices.

Two, the American Idiot has free reign, since there’s no general understanding that yes, Covid really is a killer virus. Just yesterday, the governor of Georgia made it illegal to make people wear masks. Wait, what? Made it illegal not to wear a mask, surely. Nope — to make people wear one. This is the kind of thing that drops the jaws of my friends from…everywhere. Canada, Europe, Asia, Africa.

But the American Idiot is spreading this virus. The American Idiot has turned America into the world’s greatest viral incubator, precisely because there’s no real understanding in America of how deadly Covid is, and so the American Idiot can respond with his usual…idiocy. “Freedom! It’s not a big deal! It’ll go away! Stop being such a p*ssy!! Man up!!”

Somebody needs to say right back to this kind of massive, massive idiot…the truth. Corona is a lethal virus with a shockingly high mortality rate which does lasting and serious damage even if you survive it. It is not a joke. It is like a tiny nuclear bomb: something with the power to wreck a society.

That brings me to my third point. America now stands on the brink of lasting and historic ruin.

While we’ve all been focused on how fast and far the virus is spreading, economically, a shocking and terrible thing has happened. Unemployment claims have stayed north of a million per week…since the pandemic began. This week, again, they came in at 1.3 million.

These numbers are astonishing, jaw-dropping, unreal. How many Americans is that, unemployed now? Easily north of 25%. The weekly numbers are coming in so fast that it’s impossible to say for sure. For now, it’s a Biblical deluge of economic pain with no end in sight.

What does a sudden wave of mass unemployment do? It causes a sudden stop in spending. While much is made of retail sales going back up, that’s neither here nor there — real personal consumption expenditures have fallen off a cliff, and aren’t at anywhere near normal levels. The reason for that is simple: people are getting poorer, as their jobs simply disappear.

As consumption falls, businesses shutter their doors, for good, especially the small and medium sized ones which are the backbone of a healthy economy. There are clear signs that’s beginning to happen, too.

And as that happens, unemployment goes permanent. An economy is poorer for the long-term, less dynamic, creative, fulfilled, employed, able. Bang! Now there’s a depression — another kind of chain reaction, falling spending leading to bankruptcies which causes unemployment and so on.

And that Biblical deluge of economic pain, like the pandemic, is almost impossible to stop, too. At least without a plan. Yet just as there’s no plan to end the pandemic in America, there’s no plan to end the economic pain, either. The $600 a week some Americans — too few — are able to get, after much difficulty, is about to come to an end. They were only offered one week in additional support, anyways. Contrast that with Europe — where, for example, in France, people were furloughed at 80% of their incomes up to about $10K a month, or Italy, which froze mortgage payments and rents. The Trump Administration and Congress have done literally the least they could get away with in America, and the result is that a depression is now very clearly emerging.

And there’s no plan to offer economic help now, at the precisely the moment it’s needed most — when the virus is going thermonuclear, and the tiny, tiny aid package offered a few months ago is running out. What happens then? A massive depression does, just like the which is obviously beginning to hit now. Walk down the street and tell me how many local shops are closed. How many are never going to reopen. Tell me you feel happy and safe and confident spending money these days. I didn’t think so.

America’s in free fall. It’s having a public health crisis, an economic crisis, a social implosion, and a political implosion all at once. And all those things have been brought to you by Donald Trump, whose negligence, irresponsibility, recklessness have allowed them to flourish. He’s had plenty of help from his Army of American Idiots, too — who believe free-dumb is the right to get and spread a deadly virus, like Georgia’s flagrant moron of a governor, who made it illegal to make people wear masks. Trump and his Idiot Army have made America into something even worse than a Third World Country — which is a mildly insulting term, I’m told, but let’s go with it. Even far, far poorer countries are doing better than this combination of catastrophes.

None of this is happening anywhere else in the rich world. It is only happening in countries run by men like Trump — Brazil, India, Russia. But sane and civilized societies? Canada, Europe, New Zealand? They look at America with a kind of horrified disbelief. My European friends literally don’t believe me when they ask, and I try to tell them the state of play in America, because it’s not been allowed to happen in their happier nations. It’s literally beyond their capacity to process. They stand there, dumbstruck.

And yet even far, far poorer countries like Vietnam, or rising ones, like South Korea have beaten back the virus, and are lifting their economies back up. Nobody in the world is in free fall like America.

But America is led by a Psychopath-in-Chief, who’s backed by an Idiot Army, who are fighting for the virus, its depression, its social implosion — not against all that. And so how much more pain is yet to come? Economic, human, social, psychological? So, so much.

Umair July 2020

#IFTTT #WordPress

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maskmanhk · 4 years

Link

FxPro Group Limited, a Forex and CFD broker, which is based in Cyprus and is regulated by CySEC, ASIC and FSA UK. The main client base of FxPro consist of retail clients, traders like me and you, however currently FxPro aims to grow in the institutional Forex market. The broker was established in 2006 in Limassol, Cyprus and it is currently headquartered there. In addition to Cyprus, FxPro offices are located in Australia, Austria, France, Spain, Russia and UK.

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jodyedgarus · 5 years

Text

Why The NFL Can’t Rely On Defense

In an NFL season marked by historic offensive production and a championship round that was conspicuously absent a top-10 defense,1 aficionados of low-scoring rock fights, filled with punts and field goals, have been left disappointed. The best defensive teams to make the playoffs were eliminated early in the tournament, with the Bears, Ravens and Texans all losing in the wild-card round. A week later, Joey Bosa and the emerging Chargers defense were dismantled by the Patriots, and the Cowboys — perhaps the best defensive team left in the divisional round based on their end-of-season play — lost to the Rams. Extracting the strong defensive teams with relatively weak offenses led to historically exciting playoff football, producing two overtime games in the championship round for the first time in NFL history. Now we have a Patriots and Rams Super Bowl pitting perhaps the greatest QB of all time in Tom Brady against the hottest young offensive mind in the league in Sean McVay.

We shouldn’t be surprised that great offensive teams have made it this far. Teams are more reliably good — and bad — from game to game and year to year on offense than on defense. Individual defenders often have wild swings in performance from season to season, and defensive units forecast to be dominant often end up being merely average. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense took them as far as the AFC championship a year ago, but that same defense led them to five wins this season. Meanwhile, performance on offense is generally easier to forecast, making investments on that side of the ball more reliable.

Even then, football is largely unpredictable. When an otherwise sure-handed Alshon Jeffery2 lets a well-thrown Nick Foles pass sail through his fingers for an interception to end the Eagles season, or when Cody Parkey double-doinks a partially blocked field goal to end the Bears’ playoff hopes, we are essentially cheering, or bemoaning, randomness. Most vexing for forecasters and league observers trying to make sense of things is that the plays that matter the most in football are often the most unpredictable. But again, this is particularly true on the defensive side of the ball.

Turnover margin is the canonical example. Teams that win the turnover battle go on to win their games at a very high rate. Home teams win about 73 percent of their games when they are plus-1 in turnover differential, according to data from ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, and the home team win rate climbs to more than 86 percent when it’s plus-2 or better.

Yet despite their clear importance, the number of turnovers a team creates in one season has no bearing on how many turnovers the team will create in the next. Both interceptions and fumbles are completely unpredictable from season to season at the team level. And this pattern holds true for defense in general. If we measure the stability of defensive stats from one year to the next,3 we find that compared with offensive performance, most defensive stats are highly variable from year to year.

Defensive performance is unpredictable

Share of performance across various team-level metrics predicted by the previous season’s performance in the regular season, 2009-2018

metric Share predicted Total offensive DVOA 18.9% Offensive passing DVOA 18.8 Defensive passing DVOA 10.0 Offensive rushing DVOA 9.7 Total defensive DVOA 9.7 Defensive rushing DVOA 8.3 Sacks 3.6 Interceptions 2.4 Fumbles 1.6

Source: Football Outsiders

High-impact plays on defense turn out to be the least predictable. And while we’re by no means great at identifying which teams will succeed on offense, offensive DVOA is about twice as good at forecasting future performance as defensive DVOA.4

For teams like the Chicago Bears, who won 12 games despite fielding the 20th best offense in the NFL, this has major ramifications. The Bears were third in the league in turnover margin and third in sacks — feats we shouldn’t expect to repeat based solely on this season’s results. (Just ask the Jags.) Casting even more doubt on their ability to field an elite defense in back-to-back years, Chicago also lost its defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, who left to become the head coach in Denver, further destabilizing the strength of the team.

Still there is some hope for lovers of the three-and-out. While rare, there are plays a defense makes that do tend to carry over from year to year. One of the most stable defensive stats is hits on the quarterback, which has a relatively impressive year-to-year r-squared of 0.21 — better even than total offensive DVOA, which is the gold standard for stability in team metrics. Quarterback hits include sacks — 43.5 percent of QB hits end in a sack, and those by themselves tend to not be predictive — but also plays in which the passer is contacted after the pass is thrown, and that contact is incredibly disruptive to a passing offense.

When a quarterback is hit, his completion percentage is affected on a throw to any part of the field.5 Teams that can generate pressure that ends with contact on the opposing QB greatly improve their chances of causing incompletions and getting off the field. And best of all, teams that are good at generating hits on the quarterback tend to stay good at it.

Philadelphia led the league in QB hits but not sacks

Total quarterback hits, sacks and expected sacks for teams’ defensive lines in the regular season, 2018

Team qb hits Sacks expected sacks Difference Philadelphia 123 44 53.5 -9.5

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Pittsburgh 110 52 47.9 +4.1

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N.Y. Jets 109 39 47.4 -8.4

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Seattle 105 43 45.7 -2.7

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Kansas City 101 52 43.9 +8.1

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L.A. Rams 99 41 43.1 -2.1

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Baltimore 96 43 41.8 +1.2

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Chicago 95 49 41.3 +7.7

–

New Orleans 95 49 41.3 +7.7

–

New England 93 30 40.5 -10.5

–

Dallas 92 39 40.0 -1.0

–

Washington 91 46 39.6 +6.4

–

Jacksonville 90 37 39.1 -2.1

–

Tampa Bay 88 38 38.3 -0.3

–

Denver 86 44 37.4 +6.6

–

Houston 86 43 37.4 +5.6

–

Minnesota 86 49 37.4 +11.6

–

San Francisco 85 37 37.0 +0.0 Arizona 83 49 36.1 +12.9

–

Buffalo 83 36 36.1 -0.1

–

Cleveland 83 37 36.1 +0.9

–

N.Y. Giants 81 30 35.2 -5.2

–

Cincinnati 80 34 34.8 -0.8

–

Tennessee 80 39 34.8 +4.2

–

L.A. Chargers 77 38 33.5 +4.5

–

Detroit 74 43 32.2 +10.8

–

Indianapolis 74 38 32.2 +5.8

–

Atlanta 73 37 31.8 +5.2

–

Miami 73 31 31.8 -0.8

–

Green Bay 71 43 30.9 +12.1

–

Carolina 68 35 29.6 +5.4

–

Oakland 48 13 20.9 -7.9

–

Show more rows

Sources: NFL, Elias Sports Bureau

The Eagles, Jets and the Seahawks all appear to have better days ahead of them on defense. Each team racked up more than 100 QB hits in 2018. But they also experienced bad fortune, converting their hits into sacks at a rate below what we’d expect. If these teams generate similar pressure next season, we shouldn’t be surprised to see their sack totals rise just based on reversion to the mean. Meanwhile, Chicago, New Orleans and Kansas City experienced good fortune in 2018, converting their QB hits at a rate higher than we’d expect. Assuming the defensive lines return largely intact, we probably shouldn’t be surprised to see their sack totals dip next season.

Stats like QB hits are rare to find on defense. And because of the high variance in defensive performance, teams built with a defense-first mindset end up controlling their own destinies less than we might expect. When it comes to team-building, this suggests that investments on offense are better long-term bets for stability. The results this year are particularly encouraging. Lighting up scoreboards by focusing on scoring points instead of preventing them has proved to be both successful and incredibly entertaining to watch. For this season at least, defense isn’t winning anyone a championship.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-nfl-cant-rely-on-defense/

0 notes

samuelfields · 5 years

Text

Cash Management Is Really All About Stress Management

At any given time, every investor must always decide three things:

1) How to invest their new cash flow

2) How to invest their existing cash

3) How to reposition their existing investments if at all

As long as enough money is coming in to cover your expenses, life is fairly good. As our cash hoard grows, there’s also less financial stress because you can more easily cover unanticipated emergencies like a furlough.

In general, having 6 – 12 months of living expenses in cash or cash equivalents is good enough for the average person to sleep soundly.

There might come a point, however, when you will have excess cash. Perhaps you were undisciplined in your monthly dollar cost averaging strategy or maybe you got a bigger windfall than anticipated.

Whatever the case may be, your financial anxiety will be replaced with the fear of missing out on potentially bigger gains in risk assets like stocks and real estate. Given your peers are all getting rich, you will want to follow suit.

If enough greed kicks in, you will end up taking on more risk than you can comfortably withstand, and sometimes bad things will happen. Your financial stress returns once again. Hence, one benefit of following Financial SEER.

No matter how much money you have or how much you make, you will always have to work on managing your financial stress. After all, the more money you have, the more you have to lose! When you are broke, you’ve only got upside.

Money is mental. Psychology is why during market sell-offs, there will be headlines about stocks re-testing Great Depression lows. And during bull runs, there will be headlines about how the sky is the limit and you just can’t lose.

I didn’t do much right financially in 2018 except for continuing to aggressively save. But I did make one move with my existing savings that helped reduce financial stress.

Managing Stress Through Savings

Back in early 2018, I was getting nervous about the stock market. We’d seen an almost 10% pullback in February that jolted me awake. Ever since I left my day job in 2012, I’d been regularly plowing the majority of my cash flow into the stock market and San Francisco real estate market.

After all, my #1 goal is to earn enough passive income so neither my wife or I have to go back to work. With the likelihood of private school expenses coming up in 2022, we have a goal of earning at least $250,000 a year in passive income to stay jobless.

When the correction hit in February 2018, I realized my risk exposure was too high for my comfort. As a result, I slowly started reducing my stock allocation from 70% to 52% as stocks recovered into the summer.

But when you reduce your stock exposure during a rising market, you begin to question your decision because you start getting greedy. You start imagining whether you’re missing out on more gains by being too conservative. I was tempted to take on more risk again.

But when I got an e-mail from CIT Bank that they had raised their money market rate to 1.85% and their 12-month CD rate to 2.25%, I beat back my greed. Just a year earlier, money market rates averaged well below 1%. I still remember only receiving a 0.1% money market rate circa 2015.

1.85% for a money market rate and 2.25% for a 12-month CD rate seemed pretty good. As a result, I decided to lock in a 2.25% guaranteed return for 12 months on July 16, 2018, instead of investing the money in the S&P 500 or the forever tempting FAANG stocks, which I was already heavily overweight, given I live in San Francisco.

As soon as I bought the 12-month CD, I felt a sense of relief. I remember thinking to myself, “Ah hah! Nobody can take away my money now!” I felt my stress melt away as I could now focus on more enjoyable things in life.

Although I’m only earning about ~$190 a month in interest income, it feels wonderful to know my money is secure. Because I generate excess cash flow every month, I constantly have to figure out where to invest the money in order to at least keep up with inflation.

Locking up money in long-term private investments or illiquid investments like real estate enables me to stop worrying so much about how to reinvest my cash flow.

Stay Financially Disciplined

As an investor, you must not only come up with some reasonable earnings and valuation forecasts, you must also take action based on your forecasts.

My analysis said that 2,800 on the S&P 500 was close to fully valued. We were almost back to the peak seen in January and I told myself if we got past 2,800, I would dial down risk, and that’s what I did in July.

The S&P 500 continued to rise until September when it reached 2,929 as the bull market raged on.

Was I fighting the urge to chase the momentum? Of course. But I still had 52% of my public investment portfolio in stocks, so I was still benefitting, although not to the fullest.

It was also important for me to remain disciplined and look at my overall risk exposure and net worth. I never want to have more than 30% of my net worth in equities. However, I was bumping around that upper limit due to the reinvestment of part of my house sale proceeds in equities.

If I had invested $100,000 in the S&P 500 on July 16, 2018, it would have been worth roughly $104,600 by September 30, 2018. But on December 17, 2018, it would have declined in value to just $86,000.

At the end of the year, the $100,000 would have rebounded to $90,600, but still down a hefty 9.4% since July 16, 2018.

Meanwhile, since opening the 12-month CD, it has thus far earned $1,038 in interest for a return of 1.038%. In other words, the difference between this 2.25% CD and the S&P 500 was roughly 10.438%, or $10,438 from July through Dec 21, 2018. Not bad.

Therefore, the next time you scoff at a money market or CD account rate, don’t. Not only can a money market or CD account drastically outperform risk assets, but they also have the added benefit of giving you incredible peace of mind during a downturn.

All I was thinking during the 4Q2018 meltdown was why I didn’t put more money into a CD or money market account. If I had invested my entire House Sale Fund, it would have earned $3,750 a month, or $45,000 a year with absolutely zero stress.

During 4Q2018, there were many mornings where I’d naturally awaken by 4am because my mind couldn’t rest knowing that another meltdown might possibly be right around the corner. That wasn’t very healthy and a sign that I still had to much at risk.

Time To Lock In Another Win

After such a long bull run, my goal all year is to use ~70% of my cash flow to lock in wins and use the remaining 30% of my cash flow to invest in risk assets when opportunities arise.

I’m excited I recently got another message from CIT Bank saying they have raised their Savings Builder account rate to 2.45% from 1.85%. That’s right. Their money market account, not their CD account, is paying 2.45%. No 12-month lockup is required.

2.45% is solid because it is almost as high as the 10-year treasury bond yield currently 2.65%. But with the 10-year treasury bond, you’ve got to hold it for 10 years to guarantee yourself a 2.65% annual return. During this time, you might lose or gain principal.

Earning 2.45% isn’t going to make you rich. But earning 2.45% is better than earning a negative 6.4% in the S&P 500 in 2018 (-4.8% with dividends).

There’s a good chance we could see a 10%+ rebound in the S&P 500 in 2019. But I also wouldn’t be surprised one bit if the S&P 500 declined by 10% in 2019 either.

The higher money market rate is a blessing because I’m cashed up looking for a nicer house this year. Given I don’t know when I’ll find the next house, it’s nice to have the flexibility of withdrawing my cash at any time, while also earning a high interest rate.

Take advantage of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

I’m sure there are plenty of other banks, especially online banks, that are now providing higher rates this year. You’ve just got to ask around. There’s nothing wrong with protecting your wealth after making so much since 2009.

As for my financial stress this year, it’s way down from 4Q2018 because not only is my cash earning a much higher return, the stock market has rebounded by over 11% since December 24, 2018. Just like that, it’s back to good times and I plan to keep it that way.

My overall public investment portfolio is up a modest 4% for the year and I’m seriously considering locking in gains and reinvesting all the proceeds in a 2.45% savings account to end the year up a guaranteed~6.3%.

To feel no investment stress for the rest of the year would be amazing!

After all, my theme for 2019 is: live the good life. All I want is restful sleep every night so I have the energy to happily spend time with my family and write.

Doubling my net worth every 14 years with a modest 5% annual growth target is good enough for me.

Related: How Much Savings You Should Have Accumulated By Age

Readers, are you taking advantage of higher savings rates? What type of money decisions did you make in 2018 that saved you from the stock market meltdown? What type of money decisions will you make this year to ensure you grow your wealth?

The post Cash Management Is Really All About Stress Management appeared first on Financial Samurai.

from Finance https://www.financialsamurai.com/building-savings-war-chest-is-about-stress-management/ via http://www.rssmix.com/

0 notes

mcjoelcain · 5 years

Text

Cash Management Is Really All About Stress Management

At any given time, every investor must always decide three things:

1) How to invest their new cash flow

2) How to invest their existing cash

3) How to reposition their existing investments if at all

In general, having 6 – 12 months of living expenses in cash or cash equivalents is good enough for the average person to sleep soundly.

There might come a point, however, when you will have excess cash. Perhaps you were undisciplined in your monthly dollar cost averaging strategy or maybe you got a bigger windfall than anticipated.

I didn’t do much right financially in 2018 except for continuing to aggressively save. But I did make one move with my existing savings that helped reduce financial stress.

Managing Stress Through Savings

Locking up money in long-term private investments or illiquid investments like real estate enables me to stop worrying so much about how to reinvest my cash flow.

Stay Financially Disciplined

As an investor, you must not only come up with some reasonable earnings and valuation forecasts, you must also take action based on your forecasts.

The S&P 500 continued to rise until September when it reached 2,929 as the bull market raged on.

Was I fighting the urge to chase the momentum? Of course. But I still had 52% of my public investment portfolio in stocks, so I was still benefitting, although not to the fullest.

If I had invested $100,000 in the S&P 500 on July 16, 2018, it would have been worth roughly $104,600 by September 30, 2018. But on December 17, 2018, it would have declined in value to just $86,000.

At the end of the year, the $100,000 would have rebounded to $90,600, but still down a hefty 9.4% since July 16, 2018.

Time To Lock In Another Win

After such a long bull run, my goal all year is to use ~70% of my cash flow to lock in wins and use the remaining 30% of my cash flow to invest in risk assets when opportunities arise.

Earning 2.45% isn’t going to make you rich. But earning 2.45% is better than earning a negative 6.4% in the S&P 500 in 2018 (-4.8% with dividends).

There’s a good chance we could see a 10%+ rebound in the S&P 500 in 2019. But I also wouldn’t be surprised one bit if the S&P 500 declined by 10% in 2019 either.

Take advantage of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

To feel no investment stress for the rest of the year would be amazing!

After all, my theme for 2019 is: live the good life. All I want is restful sleep every night so I have the energy to happily spend time with my family and write.

Doubling my net worth every 14 years with a modest 5% annual growth target is good enough for me.

Related: How Much Savings You Should Have Accumulated By Age

The post Cash Management Is Really All About Stress Management appeared first on Financial Samurai.

from Money https://www.financialsamurai.com/building-savings-war-chest-is-about-stress-management/ via http://www.rssmix.com/

0 notes

ronaldmrashid · 5 years

Text

Cash Management Is Really All About Stress Management

At any given time, every investor must always decide three things:

1) How to invest their new cash flow

2) How to invest their existing cash

3) How to reposition their existing investments if at all

In general, having 6 – 12 months of living expenses in cash or cash equivalents is good enough for the average person to sleep soundly.

There might come a point, however, when you will have excess cash. Perhaps you were undisciplined in your monthly dollar cost averaging strategy or maybe you got a bigger windfall than anticipated.

I didn’t do much right financially in 2018 except for continuing to aggressively save. But I did make one move with my existing savings that helped reduce financial stress.

Managing Stress Through Savings

Locking up money in long-term private investments or illiquid investments like real estate enables me to stop worrying so much about how to reinvest my cash flow.

Stay Financially Disciplined

As an investor, you must not only come up with some reasonable earnings and valuation forecasts, you must also take action based on your forecasts.

The S&P 500 continued to rise until September when it reached 2,929 as the bull market raged on.

Was I fighting the urge to chase the momentum? Of course. But I still had 52% of my public investment portfolio in stocks, so I was still benefitting, although not to the fullest.

If I had invested $100,000 in the S&P 500 on July 16, 2018, it would have been worth roughly $104,600 by September 30, 2018. But on December 17, 2018, it would have declined in value to just $86,000.

At the end of the year, the $100,000 would have rebounded to $90,600, but still down a hefty 9.4% since July 16, 2018.

Time To Lock In Another Win

After such a long bull run, my goal all year is to use ~70% of my cash flow to lock in wins and use the remaining 30% of my cash flow to invest in risk assets when opportunities arise.

Earning 2.45% isn’t going to make you rich. But earning 2.45% is better than earning a negative 6.4% in the S&P 500 in 2018 (-4.8% with dividends).

There’s a good chance we could see a 10%+ rebound in the S&P 500 in 2019. But I also wouldn’t be surprised one bit if the S&P 500 declined by 10% in 2019 either.

Take advantage of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

To feel no investment stress for the rest of the year would be amazing!

After all, my theme for 2019 is: live the good life. All I want is restful sleep every night so I have the energy to happily spend time with my family and write.

Doubling my net worth every 14 years with a modest 5% annual growth target is good enough for me.

Related: How Much Savings You Should Have Accumulated By Age

The post Cash Management Is Really All About Stress Management appeared first on Financial Samurai.

from https://www.financialsamurai.com/building-savings-war-chest-is-about-stress-management/

#Financial Samurai

0 notes

kindradenney4-blog · 6 years

Text

The 5 Stages From Grief In Divorce

Video Game Day Sneak Peek: The Kelowna Firecrackers open a three video game trip tonight along with a stop in Royal prince George versus the Cougars. Ordinarily I press one of the two bakers off my dining table to make sure that I can start quiches or even pies; today I'm at the computer until noon arranging with the 250 online purchases that came in over the weekend break - on any other Monday, there might merely be a dozen or so. Complicating things: our company simply upgraded the internet site and there are actually plenty of goofs: individuals are getting, obtaining inaccuracy notifications and afterwards reordering, while the authentic order came through merely great. Recently, Redbox, the provider behind all those motion picture rental stands, extended its own circulation deal with Universal, The studio had previously hung on on a 28-day window in between when it released motion pictures for house purchase and when individuals might rent all of them from Redbox. Of course, many people do not possess a collection therefore sizable that any sort of private holding, particularly http://be-fit-and-health.pt/uncategorized/o-que-e-na-verdade-o-titan-gel/ one along with a relatively low yield, would certainly generate enough dividends each quarter to make such a targeted method functional. Along with a supply price above $60 Intended cannot be identified as deal more, but I would certainly contribute to my position if the supply will fall to the low 50s once again. In my sight, investing goes to least as a lot about paying for a respectable price compared to it is about discovering a growth business. Sells started the week little altered from where they finished last Friday, along with the S&P FIVE HUNDRED and also Dow eking out miniscule increases while the Nasdaq (-0.1%) slid for a 3rd straight treatment. Also I have actually read a lot of books that opened my eyes to brand new dimensions in life as well as produced me discover new techniques. The rules of the activity have changed in basic methods - as well as people today expect (as well as requirement) more from company than merely that they optimize their revenues without pertaining to pain through some offense of regulation. In a large bowl, whisk all together eggs, oil, buttermilk, food items color, vanilla extract and also white vinegar. That aims to relocate out of the 'cash vs market' mindset. The only tricky one for me is 10. White colored folks possess an "excessive influence" in many Oriental as well as African countries that they reside in, also today. That is actually not worth aiming to save as well as this's definitely not worth your finite time as well as life on this planet trying to quit people which dislike you and are trying to live off from you. Nonetheless, I am right now choosing my absolute best to make clients familiar with the downside risk of some preferred intermittent inventories in the chances that might spare them some torment as well as despair when the cycle eventually turns down. Considering that an adjustment is actually very likely to blow when costs are higher, this suggests I am going to be actually confined to acquiring a small variety of high-yield inventories during the course of that time. I can easily not perform ordinarily in outfits that I experience create my physical body look even more clearly female, as a result of the quantity from trouble my appearance creates me under those conditions. 8 of the ten top 'much safer' dividend-yielding Industrials pets through turnout (shaded in the graph above) were verified as being actually amongst the best ten gainers for the coming year based upon analyst 1 year intended rates. Inventories floated lower in range-bound exchanging, as clients held back to make moves ahead of comments coming from Fed Chair Janet Yellen as well as ECB Head of state Mario Draghi tomorrow at the Jackson Gap seminar.

Marvel claimed Salizar was being actually examined concerning some things and acknowledged Thursday to undergo a polygraph exam, however was a no show" at test opportunity. My passion for Reddish Velour Covered began many, several years just before I transferred to the South, where that is actually probably one of the most well-liked covered of perpetuity.

0 notes

rameshkandanuru-blog · 6 years

Text

Crypto for beginners

Hello guys, pls read crypto tips for beginners

I have started my crypto journey in Jan 2018. Have learnt lot of things by losing money :P .

Total i bought 0.114 btc for around 1500 USD.

Now after experimenting and losing iam having 0.4 btc.

Lost btc because of trading, because of experimenting pump and dumps and joining trading groups

What i learnt

Lesson 1: Invest what you can afford to lose

Read about topics fomo and fud on internet

I have invested during fomo and when btc was all time high. So lesson learnt

Lesson2: invest when markets are low not high

Recently when btc fell to 6k usd the rich bought more btc and beginners like you and me sold in fear. Research more about this on internet.

Later alts lost very badly and my portfolio value decreased.

Lesson: Dont see profits in terms of usd see in terms of btc.

Suppose today ur btc is 0.01 and usd = 100usd and tomorrow if btc is 0.012 but usd = 90 usd then you are at profit

Reserch about short term trading on crypto exchanges on internet to get more clarity.

Research about whales in cryptos and how they manipulate the prices. Always small fish like us lose.

Also research about pumps and dumps

I made my 0.02 to 0.004 in few seconds. In greed of making more money i lost more by joining free pump and dump. Research on how pump and dump works and how free members lose .

Also reserch about bots that do automatic trading during pumps.

If we want to win in pumps whe should be fast, better use bots. Now pump and dump time has been coming to an end but as long as new innocent users join it will continue. Now a days pump name is replaced by short term HODL but the process is same.

Lesson : nothing comes free. If we want to win in trading we have to spend of technical and fundamental anlysis, bots groups etc.

Then i started spending money and joined such groups. Some of them just looted my money and are fake and luckily i was able to find some genuine groups. Ziam yet to find whales group for that we need lot of money and experimentation.

One more lesson: Never sell in panic and make sure you move out and not get struck. I was struck in tron and still waiting for it to recover. If had cut my loss and invested that money in day trading i could have earned more.

My opinion: Benefit maximum before pump season is over. And before govts start crypto regulation. Ico bubble will last till 1.5 yr and crypto bubble will continue for 2 yrs. Before that we have to get maximum and get out of this.

Research about icos and how they give 100X 500X returns. But this year we have to be careful as there are and will be lots of scams and finding correect ico will be difficult. Now a days genuine ico are fulfilling in private sale before they are open for public. So small fish cant invest in this. We can get in only if we have min amount of btc. Research on this as well i.e private vs public sale of icos.

One more point when alts are bleeding and your portfolio is decreasing you get lot of stress anxiety and unable to sleep etc. even in dreams you see your cryptos falling. So proper approach is must. Dont go for free advices like i did and lose your money. Free sucks your money. Nothing is free.

Once agin i repeat Crypto bubble and ICO bubble will last only for 1-3 years . Try to get maximum before the bubble finishes. Bubble means 10x 20x 100x returns.

Research about what happened during dotcom bubble.

If you see past years, Every year same story is repeating, remember now during this bearish market right have bought more Bitcoins. While small fish like us sold. We mostly get driven by fomo. Research on this.

Do your own research is correct but opposite is also true. No need to listen to someone who says invest in things which you understand. But you need not understand digestion liver intestine etc to get your food digested. I have made this mistake and missed the opportunity to buy btc at 1000usd now it is 10000usd and peak was around 20k usd. I think everyone who is reading this uses internet but dont know about tcp ip protocol. So our target is to get max profits are new users are growing exponentially and come out of this with in an year.

Thats all bro. End of tips. If you want to invest in this season read below. I suggest you to take a break and read below only after every concepts mentioned above are clear to you.

Finally i have found some genuine group where there is scope of 3to 5X during bull run and 1.5x during bear run in a span of month. Remember our traget is to increase btc worth so during bull run we will invest in better running alts and during bear run what we do is something like sell all our btc for usd at 20000 and rebuy at 10000 so that our btc value doubles during such bear run. That group uses bots and gives good technical analysis. I will join another group also where we get information and all analysis of best icos that gives around 5 to 500X returns. My experience these icos when they get lsited on exchanges go 10X very short term because of fomo. You can reserch by seeing what happend to certain coin when it got listed on exchange. See the charts on coinmarketcap. End of this year im expecting btc to reach 50k usd to 100k usd. And till sep the whole crypto market cap becomes 3x and by the time we ill come out of our ico. Just like every year markets shoot moon from nov dec. that is when we make max profits and rebuy when market dips. At that time im expecting icos give 500X returns like. Till that time getting 5X 20x is great.

My opinion is lets say we invested 1 usd in 10 icos, even if 9 fail and we get 1 100x return the over all return is s90x. So ill take such risk diversifications during bullish markets.

Now although i have lost half of my btc i have gained immense knowledge which will help us grow exponentially.

Small fish always die. Only big whales survive markets. So what im doing is combine 10-2- investors so that we become huge whale. My max capacity is over. I cant invest more. Remeber lesson 1 . dont invest what you cant afford to lose.

If we 20 ppl join we can start with good capital so that we can start our own pumps or invest in icos which have min cap.

Why work with me? I have better capability than you to know what is scam and which group is genuine not fake etc.i have lost some amount in joining fake group.

Why 100x returns is better because even if you lose remaining 9 1 success will give 90x

Half I'll invest in ICO and half in trading. Remember ICO are now getting finsihed before public sale.

ICO immediately after getting listed in exchange going 3x 4x in very short term.

Am I beat or bull. Im opportunist both bear and bull.

I repeat some things again.

And as ever one day don't believe everyone blindly do your own research. I have made it cake walk for you on what topics to research and how system works. Once research on what topics I mentioned and read this article once again you will get lot of clarity. Remember rule no. 1 oce again, risk is proportional to returns whether it is saving account or fixed deposit or mmutualfund or shares or crypto my strategy is simple . If you put your bet in 10 different and one becomes 100x your bet profit bs 90x.

Why iam going as group not alone? As I can't invest what I can't afford to lose, remember rule no. 1 . I observed a minimum amount is needed for trading as big whales only survive and small fish drown . So let all of us small fish form a whale and survive the market.

If you think you can afford to lose , I suggest you let's trade. And risk to become rich. The more capital you put the more returns you get exponential.

Most of the groups are fake and involve cross promotion. Every person is claiming profits but only few will deliver.

Why partner with me? Because im investor like you looking to earn money not like group admin who is trying to extract loads of money from you.

Now im lazy to type :P

You better have lets say 0.1 btc to start as good investment is needed for good profits. Now iam in the reasech group 1 month membership. In that 0.1btc i will take 0.01 btc for my work i have done and the work i do for you. Its very bad bro you cant sleep properly and you have stress and even in dreams you see crypto markets. And 0.03 btc from all of you ill use to take 1 year membership in that day trading group and ico group. Either you start trading with 0.05 btc as per my instructions or if you want ill manage your portfolio and half for day trading and half ico. So if we can make that 0.05 btc as 5 btc by end of this year thats fucking awesome. As it will be equal to quarter million to a million usd .

So f you are interested contact me. If we can form a minimum team with a good group we will start.

My btc address: 3JVPhZuXVP5fMkMcAr1u5N84wLNno62FBd

My telegram contact: @rameshcrypto

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ramesh.kandanuru

forgive me for typos and bad english. iam not interested in impressing you by writing skills. the more early we start we have chance to double our final profits. hope you got my point.

and friends dont lose your hard earned money. doubt every one including me. ask me while messaging why should you trust me. dont fall for scams.

Dont go for free advices/ groups . only now i realize that people posting tron goes to moon , ripple become 5 usd , drgn is 100x etc are promoting for their own good. not for you to earn. It may get you profits sometimes but the paid members are first to eat profits.

0 notes

billehrman · 7 years

Text

Let‘s Make A Deal

My comments last week that Trump apparently had learned from his past mistakes on healthcare reform and has decided to reach out and work with the Democrats on DACA, tax reform and his infrastructure programs were controversial to say the least but now appear on the mark. Smart move by Trump as it looked too difficult to pass anything through Congress with lines drawn in the sand between both parties. The truth is that the Democrats have no agenda and need to latch on and be part of any agenda that will help Americans, especially the middle class, while the ultra right conservative Republicans have nowhere else to go really unless they want to go into the 2018 election as the real obstructionists to “Make America Great Again”. The financial markets were not blind to this shift in DC as stocks rose and bonds fell for the week. We will discuss later the longer term implications of passage of these bills on the economy and financial markets but you can guess that our conclusion will be another leg up for the stock market, a stronger dollar and lower bond prices but not all stocks will not participate equally.

Paix et Prospérité had another outstanding week outperforming all indices. It was interesting to listen to the pundits speaking at the “Delivering Alpha Conference.” You had government officials discussing tax reform and market professionals discussing the financial markets and their own book. Most of the investment professionals felt that the markets were too rich but here again, it was based on the historical range of market multiples. By that measure they would be correct but that is looking through the rear view mirror. Our success is looking through the windshield and over the valley. We see market multiples rising above historic ranges as interest rates and inflation are much lower than the norm at this stage in an economic cycle while the risk factor has declined too as bank capital and liquidity ratios are well above historic norms. If the “real” corporate tax rate declines to say 20%, which we still see as most likely case, now from a “real” rate close to 28% today, S & P earnings are boosted 11% overnight with improvements to cash flow and free cash flow too. Then there is the prospect of a tax holiday on repatriation of foreign cash. That number is close to $3.5 trillion today and growing. Pretty powerful stuff and enough to fuel another leg up for sure. None of this really factored into the markets yet.

Let’s take a look of events around the world and whether they support or detract from our current investment thesis:

1.) Economic statistics reported in the U.S. were a mixed bag last week as the negative effects of Hurricane Harvey were beginning to be felt with Irma’s impact on the horizon for September: U.S. consumer comfort fell to 51.9, a five-week low as both the buying climate and gauge of views of the economy were impacted by the hurricane; the PPI for August rose 0.2%, core by 0.1%, boosted by higher fuel prices also impacted by the hurricane; the CPI rose 0.4% in August but only 0.2% excluding food and energy; industrial output was also impacted by the hurricanes and fell 0.9% in August; retail sales fell 0.2% in August but rose 0.2% excluding autos; job opening climbed to a record 6.17 million in July while hiring increased and layoffs fell in the month; consumer sentiment fell to 95.3 in September impacted by both hurricanes; and finally the Atlanta Fed lowered its third-quarter GNP growth estimate to 2.2% with further decreases expected as the full impact of Irma is reflected in the forecasts too. On the other hand, U.S. income levels rose to a record in 2016 led by above average gains for black and Hispanic families. There was also a decline in the poverty rate to 12.7% from 13.5% a year previous.

We expect third-quarter GNP, impacted by both hurricanes, to come in close to or slightly below 2%. We do anticipate a slight improvement in fourth-quarter growth but still penalized by both hurricanes. But then we expect the rebuilding process to add to growth next year and beyond. In addition, we must start thinking about the positive impact on our economy as parts of Trump’s agenda are passed. Positive for sure!

2.) We expect growth in the Eurozone to be penalized for the rest of the year by the strength in the euro hurting exports. However, consumer demand will benefit from the surprising strength in wages, which rose a strong 2% in the second quarter over the prior year boosting the wage gain forecast in 2017 to 1.5%, 2% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. Industrial production was up 0.1% for July and 3.2% year over year slightly below earlier forecasts. The ECB has a major policy dilemma this fall as growth remains well above target levels but inflation is well beneath them while the Euro remains super strong putting further downward pressure on inflation. We expect Draghi to fool the markets and stay one step behind maintaining an overly easy policy until inflationary pressures begin rising to the 2% level. The key may be whether Trump can pass his pro growth agenda, which will boost the dollar relative to the euro and yen, which will make Draghi’s job easier. Finally, it appears that Merkel will win the election in Germany quite easily. A non-event.

By the way, Brexit has finally bitten the British economy. The BOE’s real conundrum is growth falling while inflationary pressures are rising. Will the BOE raise rates soon? Most likely, further exacerbating their problems.

3.) China is in fine shape as it transitions its economic growth away from production/exports to domestic consumption. Wages are rising, growth is strong and consumer/household sentiment is at a two-decade high. GDP rose 6.9% in the first half of 2017 with per capita disposable income rising 7.3%. Exports are growing, imports more, and factory output rose 6.0% in August while investment increased 7.8%. Some found those numbers disappointing but what other country would not die for them. Watch closely as to what is said at the Community Party Congress meeting on October 18th! We look for very positive comments on the country’s long term growth plans which will include cutting back on pollution, reducing zombie industries, increasing regulatory reform and higher bank standards. Expect a huge decrease in domestic steel production/capacity over the next five years and aluminum too. Long-term growth is expected to exceed 6% for the foreseeable future. Don’t cry for China!

Let’s wrap this up!

The big surprise has been Trump reaching across the aisle to the Democratic leadership in both the Senate and House and the willing acceptance back by the Democrats to participate with him in immigration reform, tax relief and a huge infrastructure rebuilding program made even more important/relevant by the hundreds of billions in damage caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Now is time again to look through the windshield as to the positive impact of these policy changes and rebuilding Texas and Florida will have on U.S. domestic growth next year beyond the near-term disruptions caused by both hurricanes.

The path of least resistance for stocks remains up to the chagrin of all the pundits out there who continue to look through the rear-view mirror; the yield curve will steepen as the Fed remains on hold assessing the impact of the hurricanes on growth; the dollar will strengthen as it appears that Trump’s pro-growth agenda has a real chance of passage now and industrial commodity prices will continue to increase as demand continues to surprise on the upside while production growth is more limited by a lack of capital spending over the last few years along with production cutbacks in China beginning this fall.

We continue to concentrate our portfolios on the strongest money center banks; the U.S. domiciled global multinational industrial companies; technology at a fair price; special one off situations where internal change will lead to multiple revaluation over time and low cost industrial commodity companies including domestic steel and aluminum who will benefit from major cutbacks in Chinese capacity over the next few years. Have you noticed the performance of Dow/DuPont since the merger closed August 31st? More to come! Our portfolio is full of these types of investments providing us multiple ways to win.

Review the facts, pause, reflect, consider mindset shifts, adjust your capital allocation and risk controls as needed, do independent fundamental research and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman Paix et Prospérité LLC

#$AA #$AAPL #$AMAN #$AIG #$BHP #$BAC #$BMY #$C #$DWDP #$GE #$ITW #$HON #$UTX #$FTV #$HD #$GOOG #$FB #$JPM #$WFC #$LLY #$abbv #$MRK #$RIO #$NUE #$X #$GM #$F #$T #$V #$M

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junker-town · 7 years

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Utah has a winning Pac-12 formula, but it’ll be harder in 2017

Kyle Whittingham teams overachieve with defense and special teams, but 2017 has a few things to consider.

This preview originally published June 1 and has since been updated.

Each summer, somewhere around the middle of my power conference previews, I update the annual list of coaching underachievers and overachievers. It is based on statistics, but damned if it doesn’t look like a list you would come up with on your own.

The list is based on what I call second-order wins. The idea is simple: if you won more games than Win Expectancy thought you would one year, you’re probably going to regress toward the mean the next. Same goes for if you won too few games.

That doesn’t work for every coach, though. Our eyeballs see some coaches have teams that don’t execute as well in key moments. Some always convert key third-and-5s, call timeouts at the right time, make just the right special teams play, etc. Others don’t.

The annual underachievers and overachievers list is based on comparing coaches’ average second-order win totals to their actual win totals. Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo and Kansas State’s Bill Snyder inevitably lead the list each year. Since 2005 (when my play-by-play sample begins), both have coached nine seasons, and both have averaged more than one win per year over what the stats would have expected. They are so consistent that there’s something to it.

One name moving up the charts rapidly: Whittingham. Among guys who have been a head coach for at least three seasons starting in 2005, he is up to 28th, averaging 0.49 wins per year over expectation. That places him in the 88th percentile, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.

From 2005-13, Whittingham’s average was plus-0.1 wins per year. The stats thought his teams’ performances were worth a total of 74.2 wins in that span, and they won 75. Dead on.

In the last three years, however, something wild has happened.

In 2014, Utah’s second-order win total was 7.2. The Utes went 9-4.

In 2015, their second-order win total was 8.2. They went 10-3.

In 2016, their second-order win total was 7.5. They went 9-4.

That’s three straight years of drastic overachievement. Typically, a difference that large is a blaring siren: “THIS TEAM IS ABOUT TO REGRESS SIGNIFICANTLY.” That has not applied. In this period, the Utes are 14-8 in one-possession games; they keep the score manageable, dominate field position, make aggressive defensive plays when they need to, and win close games.

Three years isn’t infinity. For all we know, the regression is about to strike. Based on national averages for fumble recovery rates and passes defensed, Utah’s turnovers luck was worth about 4.3 points per game last year, fourth-highest in the country. That will turn at some point, even if Utah’s overall fortune does not.

Still, to some degree, Utah gets the benefit of the doubt. The Utes get a Whit adjustment. S&P+ says they’ll go 6-6 this year? Well, they’re probably going at least 7-5.

Why is the projection that low, by the way? A 7-5 campaign would be the Utes’ worst in four seasons.

There are two main factors. First, Utah is projected to fall slightly, to 45th in S&P+. The Utes are dealing with drastic turnover in the secondary, which is the clearest possible signal of impending defensive regression.

That schedule is a bear. USC is a projected top-10 team, and Colorado is no longer a doormat. Utah must play at BYU, USC, Oregon, and Washington; after playing just four S&P+ top-50 teams last year, the Utes are projected to play four on the road, plus four more at home. There are only a couple of sure wins and six relative tossups.

At this point, Utah is rolling loaded dice. Chances are the Utes will get the roll they need more often than not. But this could be a stark test of the Whit adjustment.

2016 in review

2016 Utah statistical profile.

I got yelled at a lot by Utah fans in 2015 because S&P+ ranked the Utes only 29th despite their glossy 10-3 record. Because of the Whit adjustment, they might have had a case. But I do think the turnovers luck helped in 2016; they only regressed by one win, but their ranking fell to 43rd. The offense was about the same, but the defense was glitchier. Utah allowed 10 more gains of 30-plus yards — nearly one per game — and fell from 18th to 38th in Def. S&P+.

Of course, if the Utes had Joe Williams all season, the regression might have been smaller. The running back struggled for two games (22 carries for just 75 yards against Southern Utah and BYU), then retired from football due to wear and tear. But after a month away, he returned and averaged 190 rushing yards per game the rest of the way. It steadied a banged-up offense ... just in time for the defense to grow glitchy.

First 6 games (5-1): Avg. percentile performance: 62% (~top 50) | Avg. score: Utes 28, Opp 19

Last 7 games (4-3): Avg. percentile performance: 68% (~top 40) | Avg. score: Utes 31, Opp 28

Only one regular linebacker played in all 13 games, and the depth chart in the secondary constantly shuffled. The offense perked up, and the team improved overall, but the schedule got harder, and Utah lost to both eventual Pac-12 division champions (31-24 to Washington, 27-22 to Colorado) and suffered an upset to Oregon.

Williams is gone, but if everybody else doesn’t get hurt this time around, maybe the Utes can manage.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Quarterback Troy Williams was just about the only offensive player Utah could keep on the field. Joe Williams missed four games, and the three other primary backs (Zack Moss, Armand Shyne, Troy McCormick Jr.) combined to miss 15 while averaging under five yards per carry. The three leading receivers combined to miss eight games, and seven linemen got at least two starts.

The two-deep was a mess, but the Utes improved slightly, from 60th to 57th in Off. S&P+. That’s typically a sign of major progress to come, but losing Joe Williams muddies that water. A change at coordinator does, too.

Whittingham is no stranger to hiring new assistants, and he made an intriguing one in January. After two years with Jim Harding and Aaron Roderick as co-coordinators, Whittingham announced that Harding was moving to assistant head coach and Roderick was leaving; he then handed the keys to Eastern Washington QB coach and former Cal quarterback Troy Taylor.

Cal, meanwhile, brought in EWU’s head coach as offensive coordinator. After years of EWU piling up points and yards on Pac-12 schools, Pac-12 schools have decided to do what the Eagles do.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Williams

From a continuity standpoint, Cal moving from the air raid to EWU’s pass-first offense made sense. But this could mark a stark shift for Utah. The Utes were already experimenting with a bit more tempo last year, but they were still very much a run-first unit. Despite the revolving door at running back, they ran 56 percent of the time in 2016; EWU ran just 39 percent of the time.

Williams wasn’t the most efficient passer — Utah ranked just 79th in Passing S&P+ and 99th in passing success rate, and Williams completed just 53 percent of his passes. So if the Taylor hire is a signal that Utah is going to air the ball out, we might see a QB competition well into the fall.

Tyler Huntley threw just seven passes and rushed eight times as a freshman backup last year but showed well in spring ball. Alabama transfer Cooper Bateman, who started for the Tide for part of their 2015 national title campaign before losing his job to Jake Coker, did his best to make an impression in the spring game, going 5-for-5 with a touchdown.

If the quarterback situation is stable, then Taylor can move on to addressing the next issue: everything else. Moss and Shyne are unproven at running back, and three of last year’s top four receiving targets are gone. Oh yeah, and those responsible for 50 of last year’s 65 starts on the line are gone. That includes first-round left tackle Garett Bolles.

There are still some exciting pieces in the receiving corps. [Update: Oregon’s leading receiver, Darren Carrington, transfers in and is immediately eligible after his dismissal from the Ducks.] Raelon Singleton averaged 17.2 yards per catch, albeit with only a 48 percent catch rate, in 2016, and sophomore slot man Demari Simpkins showed efficiency potential with his 50 percent success rate. The 5’9 McCormick is now listed as a slot receiver, which makes sense. If another young target — say, 6’2 sophomore Siaosi Wilson or 6’3 redshirt freshman Samson Nacua — were to emerge as semi-reliable, the QB of choice might have the receivers he needs. But it takes a leap of faith to assume that.

The Taylor hire is intriguing and could offer a jolt of energy to an offense that has only once ranked better than 57th in Off. S&P+ in the last six years. But it’s unclear whether Taylor has the pieces just yet.

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Raelon Singleton (11) and Siaosi Wilson (80)

Defense

The plan of attack was simple: let punter Mitch Wishnowsky pin opponents deep, attack until you create a third-and-long, then really attack. Opponents’ average third-down distance to go was 7.9 yards, 11th in the country, and while there were a few more big plays than normal, a huge field position advantage typically meant that Utah was able to create that third-and-long before the opponent reached the end zone.

Utah will probably be about as good at creating third-and-longs in 2017, but the breakdowns might be even more frequent.

The Utes both return and lose a lot up front. Departed ends Hunter Dimick and Pita Taumoepenu and tackle Pasoni Tasini combined for a gaudy 42.5 tackles for loss, 25 sacks, and 13 breakups; that’s a ridiculous amount of production to lose. But havoc is the name of the game for Whittingham every year, no matter the turnover. And defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley still gets to call on ends Kylie Fitts and Bradlee Anae and tackles Filipo Mokofisi and Lowell Lotulelei. Including Fitts’ 2015 season (he missed most of 2016 with injury), this foursome recorded 26.5 TFLs, 18.5 sacks, and 11 breakups.

Good lord, Utah is good at disruption up front.

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Filipo Mokofisi (45) and Lowell Lotulelei (93)

Depth could be a concern, but if this group of linemen is healthy, it will thrive. And that means good things for a linebacking corps that returns almost everybody. Last year’s injuries and shuffling are this year’s experience, and between Cody Barton, Kavika Luafatasaga, Sunia Tauteoli, Donovan Thompson, and now Arizona graduate transfer Cody Ippolito, the Utes have the play-makers they need at LB.

The secondary, on the other hand? All hands on deck. Chase Hansen is back after combining 7.5 TFLs with 12 passes defensed [update: Hansen is out indefinitely]. That’s a good start. But he’s the only returnee of last year’s eight leading tacklers in the secondary. Yikes. Safeties Casey Hughes and Boobie Hobbs saw a little bit of rotation time, but it’s basically Hansen and a whole bunch of new pieces. That rarely works out without at least short-term regression.

Not surprisingly, Whittingham loaded up on defensive backs in his 2017 signing class. He inked three high-three- or four-star JUCOs — Corrion Ballard, Marquise Blair, Tareke Lewis — plus top-100 recruit Jaylon Johnson of Fresno. The potential and upside are obvious. But big plays were already an issue, and it takes a while to create chemistry in the back. Maybe this secondary is fine in November, but it could struggle early.

Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Chase Hansen

Special Teams

Star overachievers Niumatalolo and Snyder benefit from ball control offenses to dictate close-game fortune, but Whittingham hasn’t had that luxury. What he has had, however, are killer legs.

I have three years of Special Teams S&P+ data at this point; in all three years (2014-16), Utah has ranked in the top 10. When they lost legendary punter Tom Hackett after 2015, they replaced him with another awesome Aussie, Mitch Wishnowsky. Utah lost Hackett and, incredibly, remained No. 1 in punt success rate.

The Utes do have to replace an awesome place-kicker in Andy Phillips and an explosive return man in Cory Butler-Byrd, but they very much get the benefit of the doubt at this point. We will just assume this is a great unit once more until proven otherwise. And when Wishnowsky finishes his career after 2018, we’ll assume that Utah will have another awesome Aussie ready to go in 2019.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug North Dakota NR 27.1 94% 9-Sep at BYU 46 -2.3 45% 16-Sep San Jose State 105 18.3 86% 22-Sep at Arizona 68 0.9 52% 7-Oct Stanford 12 -11.0 26% 14-Oct at USC 7 -19.4 13% 21-Oct Arizona State 58 4.2 60% 28-Oct at Oregon 23 -9.2 30% 3-Nov UCLA 34 0.0 50% 11-Nov Washington State 40 1.3 53% 18-Nov at Washington 13 -15.6 18% 25-Nov Colorado 50 3.4 58%

Projected S&P+ Rk 45 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 43 / 55 Projected wins 5.8 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 7.0 (39) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 35 / 42 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 6 / -5.1 2016 TO Luck/Game +4.3 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 48% (59%, 37%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 7.5 (1.5)

Utah has been a member of the Pac-12 for six years, and after struggling for the first three (18-19 from 2011-13), the Utes have figured out a recipe. Aggressive defense, dynamite field position weapons, and ball control from an average offense has resulted in a 28-11 record from 2014-16.

They might not be quite as effective at this formula this fall against a schedule that is potentially much stronger. Whittingham made an offensive coordinator hire that could lead to either a higher ceiling or quicker drive failures, and the secondary is being completely restructured.

Between the new offense and new pass defense, you figure this is a team that will be a lot better late in the year than early.

That could mean a couple things. The Utes face three projected top-50 opponents in the first seven games, but then each of the last five opponents is of top-50 caliber. An optimist would say that if the Utes can beat lesser teams early on, they could rise to the challenge and beat better teams late. A pessimist would say they might slip up early and be just good enough to lose tight games late.

You can understand why Utah fans might be pretty optimistic at this point. But this season could go in a lot of different directions.

Team preview stats

All power conference preview data to date.

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jodyedgarus · 5 years

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With No Runaway Favorites, The NFL Playoffs Should Be Wild

With the NFL’s playoff bracket finally set, it’s time to survey the field and handicap the race for the Super Bowl. What’s interesting about this season is that there are plenty of very good teams but few that could be classified as truly dominant. Nine teams have an Elo rating1 of at least 1600, but none of them has cracked 1700 on the eve of the playoffs. In only one other season since 1990 — when the NFL expanded its postseason to the current format — have this many teams been squeezed into the 1600-to-1700 range on the Elo scale, and even that season (2015) had one team above 1700:

Because of this logjam of good-not-great teams, nobody heads into the playoffs with better odds than the New Orleans Saints’ 21 percent chance to win it all, according to Elo. That’s the third-lowest pre-playoff championship probability for a Super Bowl favorite since 1990, trailing only the 2015 Carolina Panthers and 2009 San Diego Chargers at 20 percent apiece. It’s also much lower than the 30 percent average for the typical pre-playoff favorite before this year.

Overall, this year’s favorites are less likely to win the Super Bowl than usual — meaning the Saints and Kansas City Chiefs have a lower probability than the typical top two going into the playoffs — while most of the lesser teams have a better chance than you’d expect to see in an average year.

This year’s playoffs are more wide-open than usual

Probability of winning the Super Bowl by rank (among playoff field) for the 2018 season and the average of the 1990-2017 seasons, according to FiveThirtyEight Elo ratings

rank 2018 Team 1990-17 Avg. 1 Saints 21%

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30%

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2 Chiefs 20

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3 Patriots 14

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4 Rams 13

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5 Bears 7

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6 Ravens 6

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7 Chargers 4

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8 Eagles 4

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9 Seahawks 4

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10 Cowboys 3

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11 Texans 3

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12 Colts 3

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All numbers are as of the final regular-season game of a given year. 2018 probabilities may not add up exactly to 100 percent because of rounding.

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

Given all of this, the wild-card round could take on more significance than usual, since it’s not a stretch to imagine one of the teams playing this weekend taking home the Lombardi Trophy when all is said and done.

If Elo had to pick a favorite from that category, it would be the Chicago Bears, who are currently tied for third in the league in Elo and will host the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (tied for No. 7) on Sunday at 4:40 p.m. ET. Chicago finished the regular season having allowed the league’s fewest points, so this is a classic Monsters-of-the-Midway Bears team in that sense. But quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is also playing much better than the typical Chicago QB from playoffs past — he’s no Jim Miller or Rex Grossman, for instance. According to ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating,2 Trubisky was the NFL’s third most effective quarterback on a per-play basis this season. While he had some lows (such as a dreadful 29.5 QBR in an opening-week loss to the Packers) to go with the highs (like a 98.9 QBR vs. Tampa Bay in Week 4, one of the highest single-game marks on record), Trubisky’s strides as a second-year passer helped Chicago’s offense — which ranked a respectable 13th in expected points added — be more in line with its dominating defense.

In fact, according to our experimental quarterback-adjusted Elo ratings, Trubisky enters Sunday’s game with the best QB adjustment of any Bears postseason signal-caller since the 1986 Super Bowl, when Jim McMahon was worth approximately 36 more points of Elo than an average quarterback (and promptly shredded the New England Patriots defense for 256 yards and a 104.2 passer rating in a 46-10 rout). Trubisky himself is worth an estimated 18 points of Elo, which is why Chicago stands out if we map out the QB adjustment and base (QB-neutral) Elo rating for each of this year’s wild-card-round combatants:

The remainder of the wild-card field lines up roughly in inverse order between quarterback quality and that of the rest of the team. Some teams — such as Andrew Luck’s Colts and Deshaun Watson’s Texans — have gotten to where they are largely because of their standout quarterback play. Others, like the Ravens, are doing a lot better recently than we’d expect from their QBs’ performance alone. Baltimore has won six times in the seven games since Lamar Jackson replaced Joe Flacco as the starter in Week 11, though Jackson himself ranked third-worst among qualified quarterbacks in QBR this season, and that includes his stellar rushing statistics.3 (Beyond his own stats, Jackson’s effect on the team’s overall running game shows up under the team’s QB-neutral Elo rating.)

Everyone else is somewhere in between, including the resurgent Eagles with backup Nick Foles, whose QB adjustment is back roughly where it was after Philly beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but took many twists and turns to get there; the Chargers with 37-year-old Philip Rivers, whose own adjustment has fallen by 38 Elo points since Week 13 with a string of mediocre outings down the stretch; the Dak Prescott-led Cowboys, whose team QB adjustment has hovered around average all season; and Russell Wilson’s Seahawks, whose own run-heavy attack masked another season of highly efficient passing.

How Elo sees the wild-card round playing out

Win probabilities for Week 18 games according to two methods — standard Elo and a version that contains an adjustment for starting quarterbacks

Standard Elo QB-Adjusted Elo Team Rating Win Prob. Base Rtg Starting QB QB Adj. Win Prob. CHI 1640 61% 1644 Mitchell Trubisky +18 66% PHI 1624 39 1606 Nick Foles +2 34 BAL 1627 60 1650 Lamar Jackson -42 61 LAC 1624 40 1580 Philip Rivers +12 39 DAL 1572 54 1569 Dak Prescott 0 55 SEA 1605 46 1572 Russell Wilson +26 45 HOU 1551 56 1537 Deshaun Watson +28 58 IND 1578 44 1533 Andrew Luck +38 42

Home teams are in bold.

Elo quarterback adjustments are relative to average, based on a rolling average of defense-adjusted QB stats (including rushing).

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

Of those, Elo gives the best chance of advancing to the Bears, followed by the Ravens. And upset-wise, the best odds belong to the Seahawks against the Cowboys, regardless of whether we adjust for recent QB performance. Whichever teams win, they’ll have to contend with road games in the divisional round — but given the overall state of the league, they’ll still have a better chance than usual to knock somebody off and forge their own path to the Super Bowl.

FiveThirtyEight vs. the readers

To keep tabs on each team’s classic Elo as the weekend plays out, be sure to check out FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction interactive, which simulates the rest of the season 100,000 times and tracks how likely every team is to advance through the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. And even though the regular season is over, you can still pick against the Elo algorithm in our prediction game and keep climbing up our giant leaderboard.

According to data from the game last week, here are the matchups in which Elo made its best — and worst — predictions against the reader picks for Week 17:

Elo’s dumbest (and smartest) picks of Week 17

Average difference between points won by readers and by Elo in Week 17 matchups in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction game

OUR PREDICTION (ELO) READERS’ PREDICTION PICK WIN PROB. PICK WIN PROB. Result READERS’ NET PTS TEN 62% IND 55% IND 33, TEN 17 +15.1

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NO 87 NO 77 CAR 33, NO 14 +13.3

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MIN 56 MIN 50 CHI 24, MIN 10 +3.5

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LAC 64 LAC 70 LAC 23, DEN 9 +1.8

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PHI 65 PHI 71 PHI 24, WSH 0 +1.6

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HOU 71 HOU 74 HOU 20, JAX 3 -0.1

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ATL 54 ATL 56 ATL 34, TB 32 -0.4

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PIT 83 PIT 83 PIT 16, CIN 13 -1.7

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SEA 88 SEA 86 SEA 27, ARI 24 -2.0

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KC 88 KC 86 KC 35, OAK 3 -2.3

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LAR 85 LAR 83 LAR 48, SF 32 -2.6

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NE 89 NE 86 NE 38, NYJ 3 -2.6

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GB 65 GB 67 DET 31, GB 0 -4.4

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BUF 59 BUF 55 BUF 42, MIA 17 -5.5

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DAL 62 DAL 56 DAL 36, NYG 35 -8.2

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BAL 81 BAL 68 BAL 26, CLE 24 -10.5

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Home teams are in bold.

The scoring system is nonlinear, so readers’ average points don’t necessarily match the number of points that would be given to the average reader prediction.

Even though the readers knew about various Week 17 roster shenanigans (such as resting starters) and Elo didn’t, the algorithm did what it’s been doing most of the season, beating the field by an average of 5 points per reader. (Elo beat the average reader 16 times in 17 weeks during the regular season.) Readers picked up points for trusting Luck and Indy against the Blaine Gabbert-led Titans in Sunday night’s do-or-die regular-season finale, and they also got credit for fading the Saints, who were resting starters against the Panthers in a meaningless contest. But at times that knowledge came back to haunt them, such as when they dropped the odds of the Ezekiel Elliott-less Cowboys against the Giants, only to see Dallas storm back and win. (And it was odd to see Elo underestimate the Browns, which it’s been doing all season, only to have that work out at season’s end.)

Either way, congrats to Jake Horowitz, who led all identified users in Week 17 with 294.2 points, and to good ol’ Greg Chili Van Hollebeke, who hung on to his No. 1 ranking for the season with 1,168.1 points. Thanks to everyone who has been playing — and the game isn’t over yet! You should keep making picks and trying your luck against Elo throughout the playoffs.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/with-no-runaway-favorites-the-nfl-playoffs-should-be-wild/