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mariacallous · 1 year

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... “The Republican base is asking for very, very little,” he told me this week. “For all the stories we have about, like, the election deniers, from March of last year until now, their demands have basically been, like, ‘Please do something about the economy, please do something about immigration, please don’t let dudes participate in girls sports, and please do something about crime.’ ” When it came to independents, he went on, “It’s, like, ‘Please do something about inflation, please do something about crime, we’re pretty much with you on the girls-sports thing, just don’t be a dick about it.’ ”

He sounded a little gleeful. “It’s almost like we’ve fallen ass-backwards into the Contract with America,” he said, referring to the 1994 conservative agenda that fuelled the Republican takeover of Congress that year and elevated Newt Gingrich to House Speaker. “Certainly not because of any cunning or wit or foresight on our part. Let me assure you, it has not been because of the searing intellect of Republican leadership.”

Democrats were eager this week to point out how many seats the party in control of the White House typically loses in a midterm election—Barack Obama, the greatest politician the Party has produced in a generation, lost sixty-three seats in the House of Representatives in his first midterm. But many of the Republicans I spoke with saw this year as distinct. The pollster in Pennsylvania said that in 2010, “Obama got punished for overreach. That’s not this. This is incompetence.” When I asked the Republican consultant what the voters coming home to the G.O.P. in October wanted, he said, “Stop Biden. That’s it.”

Some elections are not complicated at all. As these Republican strategists saw it, their candidates did not get past unpopular positions on abortion with a tactical masterstroke, they simply absorbed the electoral hit and moved on. The economy is not good, and the President is both a Democrat and unpopular. If you looked only at those factors you might expect a result not unlike the Republican wave that these G.O.P. insiders have predicted. Maybe the race was simple enough that it could be sketched on a napkin.

On Wednesday afternoon, I spoke with a leading Republican political consultant about the Senate campaign in Georgia. That race is strategically significant for both parties, but it has a special symbolic importance for Democrats. The incumbent, Raphael Warnock, who for many years has occupied Martin Luther King, Jr.,’s pulpit at Ebenezer Baptist Church, in Atlanta, is seen as a potential national leader of the Democratic Party—and he may still lose to a scandal-ridden ex-football star, the Republican Herschel Walker. The Republican consultant told me that Warnock’s prospects were even bleaker than many recent public polls suggest. “There isn’t a single private poll in America that has Herschel Walker anything but ahead,” the Republican consultant told me. “Not one.”

The consensus among a number of G.O.P. pollsters and operatives I spoke to this week is that in the Senate races that are thought to be competitive, Republican candidates are heading for a clean sweep: Mehmet Oz will beat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, and not just by a point or two; Adam Laxalt looks pretty certain to defeat the incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada; even less regarded candidates such as Blake Masters in Arizona will be carried into office by a predicted wave. “He won’t deserve it, but I think at this point he falls into a Senate seat,” one Republican strategist told me. To these Republican insiders, certain high-profile races in which G.O.P. candidates were already favored now look like potential blowouts—Kari Lake’s campaign for governor in Arizona, J. D. Vance’s for Senate in Ohio. And some races that seemed out of reach, such as the Senate campaign, in New Hampshire, of the election denier Don Bolduc, now look like possible wins. The word that kept coming up in these conversations was “bloodbath.”

My interest in talking with Republican consultants and pollsters, those with their hands in many races around the country, was not only to collect predictions but to hear the G.O.P.’s story of the election. (I let them speak anonymously, and spoke with some of their Democratic peers, too, in order to provide a check on their accounts.) I wanted to know what they thought earlier polls had missed, and how a race that had seemed like a tossup for much of the year could turn into a Republican rout.

One thing was obvious in these conversations: many of these professionals had spent much of the summer working to manage the abortion issue, which became the election’s chaotic element after the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade, in June. It supplied a burst of Democratic support and fury, but also changed polling in interesting ways. “What happened post-Dobbs was that progressives started picking up the phone at nineteen-nineties rates,” the Republican strategist told me. “Answering a political poll itself became a kind of expression of political identity.”

This Republican said that he and a colleague had examined polls in which they had access to individual voter data and concluded that as much as sixty per cent of Democratic poll respondents this summer were so-called super voters, those who vote in every single election, even though such voters normally compose about a third of the general electorate in each party. (He found no such effect among Republicans.) “This created an informational doom loop, where Democratic candidates get told, You should talk about January 6th, democracy being on the ballot, trans rights,’ ” he said, “because their primary super voters are picking up the phone and telling them this is what they care about.”

Still, crafting a winning response to the abortion issue was a fixation among Republicans. A pollster working in many races across the country said, “I had candidates who wanted to know the same thing, week after week, ‘How do we answer this abortion thing? They’re beating me up on it.’ ” The pollster went on, “And what they figured out is, we don’t have a good answer. It is what it is.”

In the end, Republicans didn’t find a way through the political fact that many of the voters they wanted to win were against them on abortion so much as wait it out. As a Democratic strategist pointed out to me, a flood of funding after the Supreme Court decision allowed Democratic campaigns to put ads on television “much, much earlier” in swing states. This created a unique situation, he went on, in which Democrats were disproportionately tuned in to politics, the Democratic base was overrepresented in polls, and swing voters were overwhelmingly seeing Democratic ads. “I think that’s what creates that blue mirage during the summer,” he said.

At the same time, the polls were likely underrepresenting certain segments of the electorate. In recent years, more educated voters, especially white women, have moved to the Democrats, and less educated ones, of all races and especially men, toward the Republicans. When it comes to polling, these shifts have created an imbalance, in which one of the most visible groups in politics, and one especially energized by the Dobbs decision, had shifted toward Democrats, and one of the least visible had shifted toward Republicans. “The fastest-moving portion of the electorate is Hispanic men, and the second-fastest-moving portion of the electorate is Black men,” the Republican consultant told me. You want to get them on the phone? “Good fucking luck.”

A Democratic pollster told me, “Arizona is, I think, like ground zero for that trend. I think you’re seeing a lot of Hispanic drift toward Laxalt.” This Democrat also noted that Stacey Abrams, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Georgia, is underperforming among Black men, and thought that Abrams’s opponent, Republican Governor Brian Kemp, “is going to do a decent job winning Black voters compared to his 2018 performance.”

If Republicans couldn’t wait to get away from the major social issues, the Democrats continued to focus on them. Speaking about the defection of Hispanics to the G.O.P. in Nevada, the Republican strategist told me, “The reason that Democrats have fucked this up is that they won’t stop talking about abortion. And the reason that they screwed it up with Blacks is they won’t stop talking about abortion. . . . It’s like they’re a two-issue party. It’s this and Trump. They can’t stop. I don’t think they have anything else.”

The evolving Democratic coalition has made the party at once more prosperous and more progressive, a trick that long seemed difficult to pull off. But it has also exposed the party to certain vulnerabilities, especially among working-class voters. Across the country, Republicans have tended to emphasize a simple story about inflation—that the White House had been inattentive to its rise and its impact on ordinary Americans. As the Republican strategist put it to me, “Inflation is the big federal story, and a lot of blame belongs on the White House, because the White House just wished this would go away instead of saying, ‘We know it’s real, we know it’s a problem, it’s happening everywhere, we’re going to do everything to fix it but we can’t fix it immediately.’ ”

In certain politically competitive parts of the country, especially the booming Sun Belt states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, Republican governors could also make some policy gestures to back up the way they spoke about inflation. In July, Kemp, the governor of Georgia, extended a statewide gas-tax holiday. In August, he committed to spend two billion dollars in state-budget surplus on property-tax and income-tax rebates if reëlected. The next week, he said that $1.2 billion in federal COVID aid would be converted to three-hundred-and-fifty-dollar checks for low-income Georgians. In the closing statement of his final debate against Abrams, Kemp celebrated what he called the lowest unemployment rate and the most people ever working in the history of Georgia.

The gubernatorial campaigns of Ron DeSantis, in Florida, Greg Abbott, in Texas, and Kari Lake, in Arizona, have similarly emphasized this contrast—between the sunny G.O.P.-managed economy at home and the darkening, inflation-related clouds emanating from Joe Biden’s Washington. If voters felt economically stressed, Kemp said during his final debate, “the problem is, [wages are] not going up fast enough to keep up with Joe Biden’s inflation.”

It probably isn’t an accident that the next generation of MAGA stars has come from growing Southern states. As the Democratic pollster put it to me ruefully, “Being a governor of a Sun Belt state is awesome, because your economy is growing so fast, because you don’t have to raise taxes, and tax revenue just goes up, and then you get to do popular economic stuff.”

Republicans also moved to capitalize on the flailing economy with declarations—at campaign stops, in television ads, on right-wing media—that the country was descending into chaos. As the Democratic consultant Stanley Greenberg wrote this week, Democratic candidates “faced a barrage of ads on crime starting in September and early October, a barrage aided by Fox News dramatically increasing its crime reporting.” This offensive seems to have worked: when Greenberg asked voters what they most feared about Democratic control of Congress, their top pick was “crime and homelessness out of control in cities and police coming under attack,” which ran thirteen points ahead of concerns about illegal immigration.

Even if Democrats had wanted to make their own pivot to economic issues, their window to do so, by the early fall, was closing. The inflation index in September was much worse than it had been during the preceding months, and quite quickly it was difficult for Democrats to find much to brag about economically. By October, the basic daily experience of the race, for the Republican consultants I spoke with, had changed. “Post-Dobbs, Republicans stopped taking polls,” a Republican pollster told me. “In October, my sampling guys came back and told me, ‘Republicans are taking polls again. Response rates are through the roof.’ ”

By then, according to the insiders, Democrats were too trapped in issues—abortion and the threat to democracy—that appealed to their most devoted and best-educated supporters, and had not done enough to reassure voters that they were addressing material concerns. The Republican pollster, who has been regularly surveying Pennsylvania, told me that, when it came to the Democratic focus on abortion, “there just doesn’t seem to be any specificity. You’d want to do it with high-education, high-income supporters. It’s, like, no, they’re running on abortion constantly in, like, Scranton.”

Back in the summer, I’d spoken with the Republican strategist, who then predicted that the Dobbs wave would be ephemeral. “The Republican base is asking for very, very little,” he told me this week. “For all the stories we have about, like, the election deniers, from March of last year until now, their demands have basically been, like, ‘Please do something about the economy, please do something about immigration, please don’t let dudes participate in girls sports, and please do something about crime.’ ” When it came to independents, he went on, “It’s, like, ‘Please do something about inflation, please do something about crime, we’re pretty much with you on the girls-sports thing, just don’t be a dick about it.’ ”

“I can show you the trajectory of all our races,” the Republican pollster told me. “We took a benchmark in July—O.K., this is going to be harder than we thought. And it looks like a ‘V.’ We went straight down. And then once we finally got to October, we have enough money, the electorate becomes more fully engaged, and then the other side of the ‘V’ is straight back up. I can show you the same story in probably twenty-five races.” ♦

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draganchitsa · 1 year

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nobody breathe wrong

#holy shit

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beardedmrbean · 2 years

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A political ad released this week targets a Catholic politician for not speaking out about the vandalism and violence against pro-life pregnancy centers and Catholic churches.

The ad attacks Rep. Cindy Axne, D-Iowa, for doing "nothing" while churches are "firebombed" and "radical liberals are acting like terrorists," and it's only the first commercial of its kind in a larger campaign from CatholicVote aiming to call out self-proclaimed Catholics, many in the Democratic Party, for not being in line with Catholic teaching.

Highlighting silence from Catholic politicians on suspected arson attacks against churches, as in the Axne ad, is only one aspect of the campaign from CatholicVote, president Brian Burch told Fox News Digital in an exclusive interview.

"That's one area we hope to highlight, is that their silence in the face of rampant violence nationwide signals something deeper, and far more worrisome, about the place of Catholic candidates inside the Democratic Party," Burch said.

But the overarching goal of the CatholicVote midterm campaign, which will see the campaign will see between $2.5 and $3 million in ad spending and target 10 -15 House races and several key senate races in the midterm election, is to help establish faithful Catholic politicians in government, and Burch sees a political shift happening that could put an end to the Catholic Democrat — typified by politicians who profess the faith, but hold vastly different views on moral issues than the church.

President Joe Biden, whose views on abortion have shifted dramatically to align with the platform of his party, is only the second Catholic to be elected to the presidency. According to Burch, Biden represents the last of a certain type of Catholic Democrat.

"This is a big historical shift; obviously for half a century, the Democratic Party was home of the Catholic vote — Catholic voters from immigrant class, to unions to working class," Burch said. Many pro-worker policies that used to be the domain of the liberals are now being proposed across the GOP following former President Donald Trump's populist ideas.

In the midterms, Burch believes that control of the Senate will come down to key races that feature Catholic politicians. JD Vance, the Republican nominee for Senate in Ohio, converted to Catholicism in 2019. Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters was raised Catholic, Adam Laxalt — who would be the first Catholic senator from Nevada if he defeats Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev. — as was Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who has proposed a slate of pro-worker, pro-natalist policies in recent years.

If those Republicans win in November, "You're going to have a kind of Catholic bloc that's very different than the Catholic bloc that existed over the last 50 years," Burch said.

Add in the signs of Hispanic and Latino voters — many of whom are Catholic — are moving toward the Republican Party, and Burch sees Catholics at the center of a new political era.

A key animating issue for Catholic and Evangelical Christians' political advocacy has long been the pro-life movement, and with Roe being overturned, abortion will continue to be a crucial issue as Democrats push for federal abortion protections and Republicans consider a nationwide ban.

"Abortion is going to be at the center of this midterm, and it's impossible to tell the abortion story in politics without talking about the Catholic story. The Catholic Church essentially helped launch the pro-life movement after the 1973 Supreme Court ruling in Roe v. Wade, which interpreted abortion as a private act and therefore protected under the U.S. Constitution," Burch said.

"The Church has also been a big part of the pregnancy resource movement, which is now under attack," he added. The U.S. Council of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) keeps a running list of incidents of suspected violence against parishes since 2020, ranging from repeated damage to sprinkler systems to graffiti and apparent arson. Radical pro-choice groups have taken responsibility for some of the attacks.

Catholic voters have swung between parties in recent decades, and surveys of all Catholics show they are divided in terms of which party they support. The recent ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade and sent the issue of abortion to be decided by the states, caused some Catholics to express apprehension at the strong role conservative Catholic justices play on the Supreme Court.

Catholic commentator Maureen Dowd wrote after the draft Dobbs decision leaked in May that she "feels an intense disquiet that Catholic doctrine may be shaping (or misshaping) the freedom and the future of millions of women, and men. There is a corona of religious fervor around the court, a churchly ethos that threatens to turn our whole country upside down."

To Burch, whose organization mainly focuses on mobilizing what he calls faithful, or regular Mass-attending Catholics, Roe's end means an opportunity for Republicans and Democrats together to create policies that are more life affirming, beyond the issue of abortion.

Politics is an essential place for Catholics to be involved, Burch argued, because of the mission to create societies that are more caring, acting on Christian principles. Asked about the risk of aligning too closely to a single party, Burch suggested that it's necessary to leverage politics, along with other aspects of culture, to spread the Church's teaching and principles to create life-affirming, just societies.

"We now need to push the Republican Party, and I think you're seeing this, to combine that moral principle with needed assistance for women and families," Burch said.

"The potential for public policy has been unleashed now that the shackles of Roe v. Wade have been removed. It's an extraordinary opportunity for the Republican Party to embrace women, children, families in a way that's not just good for people and for the country, but certainly for its own political success," he added.

#nunyas news #this is gonna tweak a few buttons

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deadlinecom · 1 year

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coochiequeens · 2 years

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The right to abortion care touches on other rights, including the right to travel freely from state to state in your own country and the right not to be harassed about why you traveled in the first place.

WASHINGTON — Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic bill Thursday that would protect the rights of women to travel to other states to access abortion care legally.

The author of the Freedom to Travel for Health Care Act, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, requested consent to quickly pass the legislation but met resistance from Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, who objected on behalf of Republicans.

“There’s a child in this conversation, as well,” Lankford said on the Senate floor, accusing Democrats of seeking “to inflame — to raise the what-ifs.” He said proponents of the bill should ask themselves: “Does the child in the womb have the right to travel in their future?”

Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., called the legislation “radical” and warned against promoting "abortion tourism" by businesses.

Cortez Masto responded: “The issue here before us is exactly a states’ rights issue. ... All my legislation says is respect my state."

The eight-page bill would make it unlawful for a person or a government official to prevent or punish traveling across state lines "to receive or provide reproductive health care that is legal in that State." It also would bar states from imposing laws that prohibit women from traveling to other states to get abortions.

Cortez Masto said in a statement, “Anti-choice state legislators in Missouri, Texas, and Arkansas have said they want to pass bills to fine or prosecute women who travel for health care."

The House is poised to vote Friday on a similar bill, sponsored by Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, D-Texas, that would protect interstate travel for women seeking abortions where they are legal. The measure is expected to pass, but its prospects are uncertain in the Senate, where at least 10 Republican votes would be needed to defeat a filibuster.

Cortez Masto, who is one of the most politically vulnerable Democrats seeking re-election this fall, accused Republicans who oppose her bill of "allowing state legislators to reach across state lines to control not just what happens in their states, but what happens in every state across this country, and to punish women for exercising their fundamental rights."

"It’s absolutely outrageous," she said.

Despite the GOP objection to passing Cortez Masto's bill, Senate Republicans appear divided over whether women should retain the right to travel to get abortions. Some in the party argue that travel can’t or shouldn’t be restricted, although there was limited GOP interest in backing the Democratic bill.

"No state has the right to prohibit travel," Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said in an interview, adding that the right stems from the Constitution and has been recognized by the Supreme Court.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., the chair of the Senate GOP campaign arm, said Wednesday he hadn't read the Democrats' bill but broadly believes Americans should be allowed to travel, including in circumstances like accessing legal abortion.

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glitterypeanutmugnickel · 1 year

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Open in app or online

November 12, 2022

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

NOV 13

SAVE

▷ LISTEN

A little before 9:30 p.m. Eastern time, NBC called Nevada’s tight Senate race for the incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. Cortez Masto defeated Adam Laxalt, a former attorney general for the state, whom former president Trump had endorsed.

This means that the Democrats keep control of the Senate.

Democrats will have 50 votes in the new Congress just as they did in the current one, enabling Vice President Kamala Harris to break ties in their favor.

Harris may not need to break ties, though, if the last Senate seat goes to the Democrats. That last seat is the one outstanding seat from Georgia. In the election there, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock garnered about 35,000 more votes than Trump-endorsed Republican Herschel Walker, but neither man won 50% of the vote. Under Georgia law, this forces a runoff, which will be held on December 6. Walker is a deeply flawed candidate, and now that his election cannot give the Republicans control of the Senate, it is not clear that voters will turn out for him.

As of late October, NPR reported that outside groups had spent almost a billion dollars on the campaigns of Republican Senate candidates, hoping to take control of that body. Key to that desire for control was control of the judiciary, where the right wing has entrenched itself as it has become increasingly extreme and unpopular. Even without control of the House—which is still unclear as election officials continue to count votes—Democratic control of the Senate means that President Joe Biden will be able to continue confirming judges.

After the Nevada race was called, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told reporters that the victory was “a vindication for Democrats, our agenda, and…for the American people.” He explained: “The American people rejected the antidemocratic extremist MAGA Republicans.”

—

Notes:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democrats-maintain-control-senate-nbc-news-projects-defeating-many-tru-rcna56677

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-await-nevada-election-result-that-could-seal-their-us-senate-majority-2022-11-12/

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/22/1129976565/dark-money-groups-midterm-elections-republicans-democrats-senate

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/elections/georgia-senate-runoff.html

https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/chuck-schumer-reacts-to-democrats-maintaining-control-of-the-senate-153385541648

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eagletek · 1 year

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Republicans are winning more Latino votes. But rising turnout still benefits Dems.

Despite having a Latina candidate in the race in Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Democrats’ Senate overall vote share in Nevada fell to 62 percent among Latinos, compared to fellow Sen. Jacky Rosen’s 67 percent among the demographic in 2018, according to exit polls. And in Arizona, the ratio for Democratic Senate hopefuls fell even more dramatically. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema enjoyed a 70 percent…

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recentlyheardcom · 1 year

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Fox News voter analysis: Senator Catherine Cortez Masto’s path to Nevada victory

Days after election night, all eyes were on the crucial Nevada Senate race as it remained too close to be called. As near-final vote totals were released Saturday, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., emerged victorious. His victory, coupled with that of Senator Mark Kelly in the race for the Arizona Senate, allowed the Democrats to retain control of the Senate. Cortez Masto’s narrow…

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usnewsrank · 1 year

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Cortez Masto: ‘Nevadans rejected the far-right politicians’

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) told supporters on Sunday that “Nevadans rejected the far-right politicians working to divide us” after winning her reelection bid against Republican Adam Laxalt and cementing Democrats’ majority in the Senate a second time. Cortez Masto won the Nevada Senate race against Laxalt on Saturday, becoming the last senator needed to win their election in order for…

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lapdropworldwide · 1 year

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Cortez Masto Fends Off MAGA Foot Soldier in Nevada Triumph

Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Brockway/The Daily Beast/Getty Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) has won another term in office, defeating Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt in a nail-biter contest that allows Democrats to retain control in the Senate. The AP called the race for Cortez Masto late Saturday. Cortez Masto was considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the Senate while…

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365store · 1 year

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Catherine Cortez Masto Projected To Win Nevada Senate Seat; Democrats Retain Control Of Upper Chamber

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) was projected to win reelection over Adam Laxalt in Nevada’s U.S. Senate race, assuring Democratic control of the Senate. The latest vote tallies were enough for networks to call the race for Cortez Masto, who trailed until final mail-in ballots were counted in more populous counties like Clark and Washoe. Coupled with the reelection of Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ)…

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reportwire · 1 year

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COVID lockdown helps bounce Democratic governor in Nevada

While a national political audience, eyeing the razor-thin margin for partisan control of the United States Senate, eagerly awaits the nail-biting finish between incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D–Nev.) and Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, people who actually live in Nevada have just made a more forthright decision about how their lives were governed during the height of COVID-19: They didn’t…

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welcometomy20s · 1 year

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November 6, 2022

2022 Midterms Preview

I will quickly recap all the senate races.

Alabama - Republican Hold, New Senator Katie Britt

Britt worked with Brooks... but I don't know much more.

Alaska - Republican Hold, Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (probs)

Jungle Primary really is a beautiful thing.

Arizona - Democrat Maybe?, Incumbent Mark Kelly

Kelly is a good fit and Arizona Republicans are too out there. Shame Katie Hobbs is struggling in the governor's race. I liked her.

Arkansas - Republican Hold, Incumbent John Boozman

California - Democrat Hold, Incumbent Alex Padilla

Colorado - Democrat Probably, Incumbent Michael Bennet

Why did he ran for president in the first place...

Connecticut - Democrat Hold?, Incumbent Joe Blumenthal

Can be wonky at times, but usually reliable.

Florida - Republican Probably, Incumbent Marco Rubio

We will never get Florida, aren't we?

Georgia - Tossup, Inc. Raphael Warnock vs. Herschel Walker

Walker is floundering too much, but it'll be close.

Hawaii - Democrat Hold, Incumbent Brian Schatz

One of the brightest Senators out there.

Idaho - Republican Hold, Incumbent Mike Crapo

Illinois - Democrat Hold, Incumbent Tammy Duckworth

A bit moderate, but her strength are in line with the left.

Indiana - Republican Hold, Incumbent Todd Young

Iowa - Republican Hold, Incumbent Chuck Grassley

If there is an Democrat upset, I would probably look here.

Kansas - Republican Hold, Incumbent Jerry Moran

Kentucky - Republican Hold, Incumbent Rand Paul

Booker kind of floundered, unfortunately... maybe it will work?

Lousiana - Republican Hold, Incumbent John Kennedy (prob)

Maryland - Democrat Hold, Incumbent Chris Van Hollen

Much too moderate, but he is not hard to sway.

Missouri - Republican Hold, New Senator Eric Schmitt

Nevada - Tossup, Inc. Catherine Cortez Masto vs. Adam Laxalt

I really don't know what will happen here. If we lose one seat...

New Hampshire - Democrat Maybe?, Incumbent Maggie Hassan

New York - Democrat Hold, Incumbent Chuck Schumer

North Carolina - Republican Probably, New Senator Ted Budd

I don't think it's going to happen, but it'll be a pleasant surprise.

North Dakota - Republican Hold, Incumbent John Hoeven

Ohio - Republican Probably, New Senator J. D. Vance

Why did it have to be him? He is going to be so annoying...

Oklahoma - Republican Hold, Incumbent James Lankford

Oklahoma (special) - Republican Hold, New Markwayne Mullin

Oregon - Democrat Hold, Incumbent Ron Wyden

The scary one is the governor's race. Given Republican's behaviors in the state house, I would very much dread a Republican governor.

Pennsylvania - Tossup, Mehmet Oz vs. John Fetterman

I would be really, really sad if Oz wins. Fetterman is our chance.

South Carolina - Republican Hold, Incumbent Tim Scott

South Dakota - Republican Hold, Incumbent John Thune

Utah - Republican Hold, Incumbent Mike Lee

I don't know about Evan McMullin. He's such a Utahn oddity.

Vermont - Democrat Hold, New Senator Peter Welch

Leahy was cool, and Welch is good person to follow him.

Washington - Democrat Hold, Incumbent Patty Murray

Murray struggled so much... seen lots of ads. Quite interesting.

Wisconsin - Republican Probably - Incumbent Ron Johnson

I think he got slightly lucky, although the state is pretty much toast.

There is a bit of hope Democrats can still hold congress... we'll see.

#election #midterms #senate

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