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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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2 weeks to go till the by-elections and more want BoJo OUT
Smarkets Betting odds at 1456 June 9th
A growing %age wants him to quit
While we are talking about YouGov the firm’s latest “Should BoJo” resign polling looks increasingly difficult for the current incumbent at Number 10 and these changes since last month are bigger than the margin of error.
Clearly he is having a rough time and I am far from sure that he actually realises how bad his lockdown behaviour appears in the eyes of the vast majority of the population who followed the strict COVID rules. He uses the word “apologise” a lot but never gives the impression that he is really contrite.
The next big political hurdles for him to surmount are the Tory defences in the June 23rd by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton. As can be seen punters are convinced that both will be lost – which would reduce the Tory majority by 4.
I’m told by campaigners on the ground in T&H that Johnson is a big issue for many voters.
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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The GE2017 BBC leaders debate that TMay dodged
The event behind the polling suppression row?
There has been a lot of coverage in the past day also about out a YouGov poll that was said to have been carried out after the BBC leaders debate at the 2017 general election.
The screenshot above shows the participants who were the leaders of the Plaid Cymru, the SNP, the Green Party, LAB, and the LDs. TMay refused to participate and she sent Amber Rudd in her place.
In the build up to the event the big story was about Theresa May’s refusal and on the evening itself almost every other leader attacked her for her failure to be part of it.
Being the major Party leader who did attend it is not surprising that Corbyn is reported to have polled well with a quarter of Tory voters who watched saying he was the best.
I don’t know the rights and wrongs of what Chris Curtis has been saying but it has to be seen in the context of the Tories doing their level best to underplay the event and try to ensure that it had as a little electoral impact as possible.
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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Penny Mordaunt: Now 2nd favourite for the CON leadership
One of the big developments in the next CON leader betting that PB hasn’t really covered has been the rise and rise of ex-Royal Navy reservist Penny Mordaunt. She’s now the 13% second favourite and appears highly credible.
She served in TMay’s cabinet in 2019 International Development Secretary and then Defence Secretary and is an inpressive Commons and TV performer.
At some stage Johnson is going to fall and it is currently looking as though the final two the next CON leadership elections will be Mordaunt and Hunt. I got on her at 31/1- that’s now tightened to 7/1
On Monday she refused to be drawn when asked whether she was backing Johnson in the confidence vote.
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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The Wednesday afternoon open thread
I’m travelling today so not much time for me write a new piece.
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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The betting money’s still going on a 2022 BJ exit
Betdata.io
Although Johnson “won” Monday’s vote punters are still putting money on him not surviving in 2022 and this remains the betting favourite for his exit year..
I’m not so sure about this. Johnson is not going of his own accord and it is going to take something like a huge rebellion amongst Tory MPs to shift him. Also while at Number 10 he retains huge powers of patronage which he will use, if required, to reinforce his position.
This has the potential of getting very messy.
What we do have now is an organised opposition within the Tory party and Hunt is not going to give him an easy ride.
As I was stating before the vote I thought the rebels were wrong to force the issue this week. It would have been far better to wait till the June 23rd by-elections which look set to demonstrate the electoral price the party will pay for sticking with Johnson
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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The Tories go on the offensive in T&H
The above is an anti-LD leaflet being put out by the Tories as they try to save Tiverton and Honiton in the Westminster by-election that takes place on June 23rd.
Clearly the aim is to try to warn previous Tory backers of what they see as the danger posed by Ed Davey’s party.
It does suggest they are taking this seriously in a way that they didn’t in Shropshire North last December. I’m not sure, however, that focussing on policy areas is the right approach given the LD campaign.
In a by-election particularly the focus by the is on the candidates with less attention to policy.
From the LD perspective this could be regarded as good news because it gets over the message that the Tories regard them as the main challenger in a seat where they came 3rd to LAB at GE2019. It is also in the standard LD colours.
My guess is that most voters won’t read it but just assume it is part of the mass of LD material bring shoved through letter boxes almost every day.
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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The front pages on the confidence vote
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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Johnson holds on with 58.7% of the vote
This compares with TMay’s 63% in 2019
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson
ConservativeHome
Since it was founded in 2004 the Conservativehome website has proved to be a good indicator of the mood amongst party members so this afternoon’s survey with 55% wanting Johnson out is not good news for the PM less than 2 hours before his fate is decided by the parliamentary party.
One assumes that MPs will be aware of the mood amongst members in their own constituency and this could affect their decisions.
In the betting a 2022 exit is the current favourite for the year of Johnson’s exit
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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New poll has 59% wanting CON MPs to vote to remove BoJo
An Opinium poll carried out this morning finds 59% saying Tory MPs should vote to remove PM with 28% saying they should vote to keep him. There were 13% saying Don’t know.
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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The confidence vote takes place tonight
I'm probably reading too much in to the word 'exceeded' and the fact the vote is taking place tonight! https://t.co/8qKNLTzvKZ
— TSE (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2022
This leadership vote is not what I wanted after 13 days off work and the Platy Joobs long holiday.#HaveSomeBloodyConsideration
— TSE (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2022
TSE
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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Johnson’s premiership is on a knife edge
Above is the front page of Monday’s Guardian with the UK political news that looks set to dominate the next few days. It appears we are very close to a VONC on Johnson and that could happen very quickly.
Personally I think rebel Tory MPs are being premature and would be better waiting till after the June 23rd by-elections.
The main case for the incumbent is that he claims the record of being an election winner and that would be knocked for six if both by-elections were lost on the same day – one to LAB and one to the LDs.
A big challenge is that nobody seems to be coordinating the letters going into 1922 chair Brady and we could hit the 54 letter threshold by accident.
The other big thing in Johnson’s favour is that there is no clear frontrunner for his successor.
My only current bet linked to this is the 41/1 I got on Betfair on Dominic Raab being the next PM. This is based on Johnson being ousted and not being PM while the leadership election to find his successor is underway. Raab, of course, is Deputy PM and the odds I got at the weekend look like value.
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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The polling that should scare Tory MPs
The Boris boo-ing tells you nothing that looking at data doesn't. There is no social group that trusts him any more. Here's YouGov's trust tracker for *Conservative* voters. pic.twitter.com/g7Xnby24Cf
— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) June 3, 2022
This is wealthier voters – the sort the Tories used to rely on. pic.twitter.com/yMhPiQiCSJ
— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) June 3, 2022
And yet they keep briefing stuff like this. People in the red wall, like everywhere else, don't like Boris! It's right there in the polling. https://t.co/tXUHVgJvvi
— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) June 3, 2022
A man who is seen so overwhelming untrustworthy by Tories, the oldies, the rich, and pretty much everybody else is going to lead the Tories to an epochal defeat so long as Labour aren’t led by somebody as toxic as Jeremy Corbyn. This polling feeds in to other aspects of polling and anecdata as Tom Newton Dunn reveals today.
On the electoral question, the public numbers aren’t great, but they certainly could be worse. Labour’s eight-point lead should be far higher against a mid-term government presiding over an economic quagmire.
Privately, Johnson’s own numbers are quite a bit worse. One party official who has seen Conservative Campaign Headquarters’ internal polling says the prime minister’s favourability rating is minus 35 per cent. Among women aged 35 to 54, a key demographic, it’s minus 70 per cent.
Anecdotal evidence from MPs who have been back in their constituencies over the half-term recess is grimmer still. They are disturbed by the growing number of angry emails in their inboxes and the vitriol they now receive from constituents and friends. “I’m sick of going to dinner parties and being embarrassed about being a Conservative MP,” one said. They won’t have been comforted by the boos that Johnson and his wife, Carrie, received from the monarchist crowd outside St Paul’s on Friday — a scene that would have been unimaginable six months ago.
If the Tories are doing so badly with oldies and women aged to 35 to 54 then they should expect defeat at the next general election.
The most intriguing thing about this rebellion is that so many ardent Brexiteers are supporting it, I think they know the numbers for Boris Johnson are heading to Corbyn at the 2019 general election territory and that might damage the Brexit settlement, that makes Boris Johnson expendable.
TSE
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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Boris Johnson confidence vote margin
I like this market from Smarkets as most of the markets on the confidence vote are if/when it takes place or on the binary outcome of the vote but this on the vote margin.
Whilst it seems inevitable that a vote will be triggered this month (maybe as early as tomorrow) or later on this month if the Tories lose both by elections I wonder if Tory MPs might delay the vote until after the Committee of Privileges has reported on whether the Prime Minister deliberately misled the House.
Right now I think if there’s a vote of confidence triggered in Boris Johnson this month he will win it with a lower percentage than the 63% Theresa May achieved in 2018 but that would keep Boris Johnson in office, if not power.
If Boris Johnson wins the confidence vote and then the Committee of Privileges later on this year concludes Boris Johnson deliberately misled the House then Boris Johnson would be safe from another confidence vote for a period of twelve months from the last confidence vote.
So if there confidence vote is held later in the year I conclude the value lies in the Johnson loses by 0 – 50 and 50 – 100 bands.
TSE
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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It’s looking like a wake for the Tories in Wakefield
Wow. https://t.co/e3PLfLXp7O pic.twitter.com/51GxYYmHBy
— TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2022
TSE
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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Is there a face-saving way Johnson can step aside?
For someone who likes to be liked yesterday’s booing of Johnson, seen by tens of millions as he arrived at St Paul’s, must have been very difficult to stomach. I’m not a fan of the PM but it was hard not to feel for him as he walked up the Cathedral steps with the cameras on him yesterday,
At the very minimum, this public display of antagonism to the PM will have been noticed by Tory MPs who soon might have to cast their ballots in a secret vote of confidence.
I just wonder whether some of his friends are working on a face-saving way out. The very worst thing that can happen is for the confidence vote to happen that he loses and he has to go to the Palace to resign.
Given that it looks as though Tory MPs are waiting till after the June 23rd by elections to happen there is possibly a little bit of breathing space for a solution to be found.
In the betting a 2022 exit is now the favourite.
Mike Smithson
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tranbinhminh360 · 2 years
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CON leadership contender Liz Truss on the monarchy in 1994
Liz Truss opposes the monarchy at the 1994 Lib Dem conference. pic.twitter.com/i68cqNmdwA
— Graham Mosley ?? (@Mosley6Graham) September 27, 2021
With the possibility of a Conservative leadership contest in the next few weeks I thought it might be useful to look at the likely contenders.
And as we are celebrating the Queen’s Jubilee let’s start with the Foreign Secretary Liz truss who in her earlier career was strongly opposed to the monarchy and at the LD conference in 1994 moved a resolution calling for it’s abolition.
Clearly, she has switched parties since and her views on the monarchy are not the same.
Mike Smithson
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