Interrogation Room
Playing P5R and bear with me, but I think Akechi knew he didn’t kill Ren at the interrogation room. Let me parse my doubts into something coherent because I can’t make sense of them otherwise.
First: when Futaba steals Akechi's phone on the first day infiltrating Sae’s Palace, everyone is surprised, and it shows in the exclamation signs above their heads. Everyone except Futaba, who plotted this interaction, and Akechi, who acted surprised, but wasn’t really surprised. Similar to when he met Morgana after his panel: he acted surprised to keep up the charade, but really wasn’t.
On 8/28, Akechi connected Medjed to Futaba on sight, and implied so in front of Ren. On 10/11, he knew Sae’s laptop had been tampered with. I can’t wholeheartedly say he didn’t connect the dots. He allowed Futaba to spy him.
Second: The Phantom Thieves knew that stealing the treasure caused the palace to collapse. It's safe to assume Akechi knew this too, because he witnessed Okumura’s fight from the shadows. After defeating Sae’s Shadow and fake-stealing her treasure, he must have been aware something was going on. Why isn't Akechi wary of things not going according to plan? Or rather; did Akechi expect the Phantom Thieves to foil Shido’s plan from the beginning? When Joker was successfully subdued by the police troops, Akechi must have been the only one actually surprised at the turn of events.
Third: While on his way to the interrogation room, how could Akechi, a known veteran lurker from the metaverse, not sense the reality shifting? During the Third Semester, Akechi is confirmed to have amateur navigator perception, which means he should be more aware of his surroundings than the average Persona Users. Also, as evidenced by the Phantom Thieves’ first access to Okumura’s Palace, he can feel the shift into the metaverse even before the surroundings are warped.
At a considerable distance from the area of effect, even before material changes occur, Akechi senses the shift. So did he really miss it during the interrogation room... or was he aware they shifted into the palace all along?
Fourth: Akechi was a full fledged hitman in both the metaverse and the real world, and we can see as much from his deft handling of the guard’s gun and appliance of the silencer. In P5S there’s an unsolved assassination case that’s directly tied to the Antisocial Force, and the modus operandi is Shido’s blueprint. Thus, If Akechi was experienced in killing both shadows & people, why couldn’t he tell the difference between them? Or more likely; was he aware it was a cognition the whole time?
Fifth: The Conspiracy planned to escape-goat the Phantom Thieves as the perpetrators of the mental shutdowns & psychotic breakdowns. However, Akechi repeatedly states he's going to bring the true culprit to justice, and this is reiterated throughout the game. It aligns with his ultimate plot to betray Shido at the peak of his power, and with his confession during Christmas’ Eve. It begs the question: was Akechi ever really willing to let Joker take the fall in the first place?
Sixth: The "deal” between Akechi and the protagonist consists of Akechi protecting the Phantom Thieves from the authorities, as Sae herself phrased - ["I can't believe you evaded the police's network until today… The only logical explanation is that someone in the police has ties to the Phantom Thieves.”] His "smooth talk" ability is more than just a perk; it’s employed several times as his go-to persuasion tactic to steer Shido away from damaging others.
Akechi calling Shido after the interrogation room and straight up lying to him so as to postpone the Phantom Thieves’ assassinations is a perfect example of Akechi covertly covering for the team’s asses. Akechi’s billiards allegory in Rank 7 - for which you need maximum intelligence - explains his situation as a pawn of the conspiracy while hinting to grander forces at play, along with his proposal for an unlikely alliance. There are several messages in the thieves’ chat that also cover this. He was hinting at this development all along, and he was either confident -or faithful- that the Phantom Thieves would be prepared for it.
When observing Sae’s Palace Memoirs inside the Thieves’ Den, Akechi mentions he's impressed with the plan the Phantom Thieves pulled, and in the mementos dialogue (3.00), Akechi is even embarrassed about the Phantom Thieves discovering him so early in the year due to the "pancakes" line. While we must be skeptical of Ren’s unreliable cognition, it's safe to assume Akechi was completely in the dark about the Phantom Thieves' Contingency Plan during Sae's palace.
If all these are true, it means that Akechi trusted the Phantom Thieves to save Joker from capture, willingly cooperated into their plot whenever opportunity arose, and then kept his end of the deal by ensuring their livelihood. All while unaware of what the Phantom Thieves were actually thinking.
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There's something absolutely ironic and even compelling to me about the domino effect regarding Akechi and Sae's interactions. Akechi had to deceive everyone, including his coworkers. Sae in particular was closely tied to the investigations of the crimes he was committing, so of course appearing as non-threatening or even annoying as possible to her was in his best interests.
However, his petty but arguably feeble masquerade is what led to his cognitive self in Sae's brain presumably being easy for the Phantom Thieves to tie up? He was too good at deception and it led to Sae's perception of him being sopping wet cat, which was easy for the Thieves to subdue, so the threatening, real Akechi wouldn't stumble upon Sae's cognition of him as he went to murder Joker.
I know people usually discuss Shido's cognitive Akechi and the implications regarding Akechi's presentation of himself and his layers of deception, but Sae's is the direct contrast to Shido's, and it's very interesting to look at how being a petty little asshole to your stressed out hot lady coworker about her skincare routine can also contribute to her thinking of you a a nuisance at best (until it was almost too late for everyone involved, but hey, it worked out for the best? I think).
I love the layers of Akechi's deception because he was cunning to a fault. Sometimes I wish we could have seen how the Thieves interacted with Sae's cognition of him, because both Sae and Shido had a very biased perception of him, and it makes me wonder who really knew Akechi at all. I'm rambling here, but it's been on my mind for ages. I would love to see if her cognitive Akechi changed after 11/20, considering he went from annoying junior detective to a dangerous murderer in just one day for her, and she doesn't remember any of third semester or even 12/24 when he was there.
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