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jodyedgarus · 5 years

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Don’t Worry, MLB — Hitters Are Killing The Shift On Their Own

When asked about Major League Baseball’s interest in restricting defensive shifts, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle recalled that when he was growing up in Merritt Island, Florida, they were often short on players for neighborhood games. Hurdle said they would arbitrarily cut the field in half to solve the problem. “Sometimes we’d shut down the pull field. … We just would do it to change the game and realized we learned how to hit the ball the other way,” said Hurdle. “What the shifts are telling hitters is, ‘Here’s what you do. Where is your counterpunch? Where is your answer?’”

Many coaches, commentators and baseball observers have asked the same question, bemoaning batters’ seeming inability to adjust to opponents’ shifts — the tactic of moving defensive players out of their usual position to overload one side of the infield, a strategy that has proliferated across the sport in the past decade. The shifts have also become one of the most conspicuous on-field byproducts of baseball’s data age as more and more teams decide how to align their defenses using actual batted-ball data. In December, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reported that MLB commissioner Rob Manfred had “strong” backing from baseball’s competition committee to limit defensive shifts. Texas Rangers slugger Joey Gallo’s Christmas wish was to see shifts banned.

But in all the hand-wringing over the shift, one detail has been overlooked: Batters have adjusted, and they’ve done it without league intervention or legislation. What’s more, there’s reason to believe shifts are actually encouraging increasingly efficient offensive behavior.

Shifts have grown at a staggering rate. In 2011, defenses deployed the shift — counting both the traditional (three infielders to one side of second base) and non-traditional varieties — during 3,065 major league plate appearances that ended with a ball being put into play,1 according to Baseball Info Solutions data housed at FanGraphs. That’s only 2.6 percent of all at-bats where balls were put in play. The number of plate appearance where hitters faced the shift has increased every year since, save for 2017. Last season, batters faced the shift in a record 40,730 total plate appearances ending on balls in play — that’s about 34 percent of such plate appearances.

The era of the shift has coincided with a league-wide decline in batting average, though that is more a product of the record strikeouts rates in recent years as fewer and fewer balls are put in play, as batting averages on balls that are put into play has remained steady despite all the shifting, as you can see on the chart below.

While shift usage has grown dramatically, there’s evidence that batters have adjusted by going over the shift, which reduced the overall effectiveness of the shift across baseball.

In 2011, batters hit ground balls 53.2 percent of the time when they put a ball in play against the shift. Last season that number was 43.9 percent, which is the lowest such rate since at least 2010, the first year for which data is available on FanGraphs. When batters are not facing shifts, ground-ball rates have remained steady. Batters had a 45.9 percent ground-ball rate in 2011 when not facing a shift and a 45.9 percent ground-ball mark last season. You can see the divergence in strategies in the following chart. The drop in ground-ball rates against the shift suggest that more players are trying to bypass the infielders altogether by knocking one over their heads.

Not all hitters try to adapt — Bryce Harper, for example, has a career 1.4 ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio both when facing a shift and when not facing a shift. But those who do, Joey Votto, tend to go high. Votto’s career ratio when not facing a shift is 1.57 ground balls to fly balls, but that drops to 1.44 against the shift.

“I’ve tried to avoid the right side of the infield shift,” Votto said in 2017. “I’m not excited about hitting balls to that side because I could hammer a one-hopper to the second baseman or shortstop, or whoever they have stationed over there. … Personally, I embrace the fly-ball thing just because of that reason.”

The average launch angle of a batted ball has increased in every year of Statcast era,2 rising gradually from 10.1 degrees in 2015 to 11.7 in 2018. But with the shift on, batters are even more likely to hit the ball in the air. The average launch angle against the shift last season was 14.7 degrees, a notable jump up from 13.1 in 2015.

In addition to MLB-wide trends, I looked at the behavior of the regularly shifted-upon batters in 2018 to see how their approaches changed.3 This group combined for a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate when facing shifts and a 44.1 percent rate when not facing shifts.

“Is [banning the shift] that going to produce more batting average? Maybe,” said Houston Astros manager A.J. Hinch at the winter meetings. “More runs? Debatable. A more energized and entertaining game? I doubt it.”

Left-handed hitters are an interesting study since they now put more balls in play with the shift on (26,076 last season vs. shift) than off (23,214 against no form of shift).

Last season, left-handed batters hit for a higher average (.300), greater slugging percentage (.388) and lower ground-ball rate (44.0 percent) when the shift was on compared to when there was no shift (.295 average, .380 slugging mark, 45.7 groundball rate). And because Baseball Info Solutions can only track shift data when a ball is put into play, those stats do not include home runs, since they are not in play.

In some ways, the shift has backfired. Batters have an incentive to hit more balls in the air, and balls hit in the air are more valuable. When batters faced a shift last season, 5.2 percent of balls they put in play went for a home run. When they didn’t face a shift, 4.1 percent of balls went for home runs, according to Statcast data.

While more batters try to go over shifts, they are not always going to the air in the most optimized manner. Every hitter who has faced a shift has probably been advised to try and go the other way. And as a result, the percentage of batters pulling line drives and fly balls against the shift has fallen off notably since 2010, from a 31.5 percent pull rate in 2010 to 26.2 percent in 2018. But by going the other way, batters might actually be hurting themselves. They are purposely avoiding the most valuable batted ball in baseball: a pulled ball in the air.

Consider that in 2018, 32.7 percent of fly balls to a batter’s pull side went for home runs, compared to 8.1 percent of fly balls to center field and 3.8 percent to the opposite field. Batters across the league had a .429 average and 1.514 slugging percentage on fly balls hit to the pull side and a .135 average and .324 slugging mark on balls hit to the opposite field. That’s not much more valuable than a ground ball. Last season, MLB batters hit .236 and had a .258 slugging percentage on ground balls.

Many have made the case for batters facing the shift to simply bunt more often. After all, batters have hit at least .357 when bunting against a shift every season since 2010. Would bunting be more effective than, say, trying to go over the shift? Not for most batters.

According to weighted runs created plus (wRC+) — a metric that adjusts for ballpark and scoring environments, with 100 representing league average — batters produced a 53 wRC+ mark on bunts against all shift types last season compared to a 127 wRC+ mark when putting the ball in the air against shifts.

Batters seem to unwilling to sacrifice potential power in pursuit of infield bunt singles. The percent of at-bats against the shift where the batter bunted has fallen four straight years, from 2.92 percent (2015) to 2.12 percent (2016), 1.88 percent (2017) and 1.73 percent (2018).

One other issue: Teams are pitching less effectively to the shift.

As more and more batters use an uppercut swing to better combat sinking fastballs, which are designed to produce ground balls, the percentage of sinkers thrown has decreased. Sinkers represented 22.4 percent of all pitches thrown in 2010. Last year? 16.9 percent.

The shift will always be effective against pull-side ground balls and low line drives. Batters who hit those batted ball types often, especially left-handed hitters, can see their batting average drop. But more and more batters might be learning to combat the shift. When factoring in all batted ball types — not just grounders and low liners — the MLB batting average on balls in play has remained stagnant. In 2010 — a relatively shift-free season — league-wide batting average on balls in play for all defensive configurations was .297. Last season? .296. The figure has held relatively steady even while scoring and slugging have increased, despite the growing use of shifts. Maybe shifts aren’t such a problem after all.

“The beauty of the game is all the strategies that we can employ,” Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell said at the winter meetings. So “attacking strategies to win baseball games, man, I just don’t see that as improving the game.”

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-mlb-hitters-are-killing-the-shift-on-their-own/

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yahoo-roto-arcade-blog · 6 years

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Closing Time: Freddy Peralta graduates

Thus far, rookie Freddy Peralta looks terrific from every angle (AP/Morry Gash)

The Brewers are in first place in the NL Central, 2.5 games clear of the Cubs. It’s a fun and highly-watchable team, a mix of names you know and names you’re getting to know.

Add Freddy Peralta to that latter group. And give Peralta his graduation papers, he’s pushed his ownership tag to the point that we can’t discuss him as a reasonable add any longer. He’s climbed over the 50-percent threshold, and the future looks bright. We’re now trying to figure out where the story is headed.

The backstory should be a review, stuff we discussed two weeks back (when he was five percent owned). Peralta is a 22-year-old rookie who’s been a strikeout ace at Triple-A and a revelation in four MLB starts. The Twins got the better of Peralta in his second turn, but he’s been a knockout in the other three appearances.

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Start with a 13-strikeout debut at Coors Field, with just one hit allowed. That’s insane. Peralta also tamed the Pirates over six scoreless innings, and Tuesday against Kansas City, it was more bagel parade (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K).

Now would be a good time to run some Peralta video. Filthy is as filthy does.

Okay, no one gets a trophy for stopping the 2018 Royals, but appreciate the likely Signature Significance in front of us. Thus far 29 pitchers have managed at least two double-digit strikeout starts, and Peralta made it on just four appearances. He’s sitting on a 1.59 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and nine walks against 35 strikeouts over 22.2 innings. These are Wiffle Ball stats.

Of course the kid is going to eventually regress, that’s not any eureka moment. No one is this good. And the Brewers will have a clogged rotation soon enough; Zach Davies should return from the disabled list next week. Peralta’s spot in the rotation isn’t carved in stone, not yet anyway.

That said, the Brewers fancy themselves contenders (consider the Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich trades in the offseason), and they need to respect anyone who’s getting it done right now. And the schedule might come in handy as Craig Counsell tries to navigate the glut of pitching. Milwaukee doesn’t have an off day until the All Star Break, and there’s also a doubleheader in the second week of July. The Crew could easily decide to run with six starters, let the logjam figure itself out.

No matter what, Peralta is set to start against the Reds this weekend. Screw Harvey Day (his opponent), it’s Peralta Day. After that, Counsell has some decisions to make.

The only reasonable assumption I see is Peralta hanging around. I always consider my entire fantasy roster tradable, but I’d have to really like a Peralta offer at this moment. The upside is too tantalizing. I’m probably going to hold on with both hands and see where the ride takes us.

• I recognize many fantasy owners dream of complete domination and demolition, assembling an All-Star roster and just crushing opponents.

Hey, I have nothing against star players. Everyone needs a few. But I feel more satisfaction when I find production from a hidden or unlikely source.

Consider Gorkys Hernandez in San Francisco.

Hernandez has been around, stopping in Pittsburgh and Miami before hitting San Francisco in 2016. He played often last year, and did extremely little in 310 at-bats — a .255/.327/.326 slash, no home runs, 12 steals. The bags are nice, the average mediocre, the power nonexistent. The Giants viewed him as a disposable depth player to open the year.

Alas, Hernandez is playing often, and playing quite well. In his age-30 season, he’s apparently figured some stuff out. He has a nifty .284/.338/.482 slash over 68 games, with 10 homers (where did that come from?) and four steals. He’s batted leadoff in seven of his last 10 starts.

He was the hero in Tuesday’s 3-2 win over Colorado, with an early homer (a center-field blast) and the go-ahead walk, plating a run, in the eighth. The leash gets longer.

SFGiants fans March 2018: Why do we still have Gorkys Hernandez? June 2018: Where would we be without Gorkys Hernandez!

— Batting Stance Guy (@BattingStanceG) June 23, 2018

Hernandez was a secondary prospect in his early days, cracking the Top 100 for two major ranking sites in 2008 and 2009. But he was never slotted higher than No. 62 (Baseball America, 2009). He really can’t be called a post-hype prospect; the full hype never arrived.

Hernandez is hitting the ball harder this year, obviously a good thing. He’s also become more aggressive, perhaps hyper aggressive — his walk rate is down a speck, and his strikeout rate has spiked to 28.4 percent. Some might feel this approach will catch up to Hernandez sometime, with all the swinging strikes and out-of-zone chases. But perhaps this is a player who’s learned how to sell out for power and take advantage of it. Selective aggression can actually be an extremely valuable tool at the plate.

I don’t blame anyone who screams out “pumpkin” and doesn’t want in on Hernandez. But at some point we have to trust what’s in front of us. Over the last five weeks, he’s the No. 20 outfielder in 5×5 value. That is no longer a tiny sample size. You don’t have to put Hernandez on an extended leash, but I’m fine to see where this story goes — he’s already on a handful of my rosters.

Hernandez is still available in 92 percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s lagging far behind the ownership tags of Dexter Fowler and Bradley Zimmer, for crying out loud. Remember, we really don’t care about the name. We just want the numbers.

• The Giants closing chase didn’t clean up Tuesday, even with the 3-2 victory.

Mark Melancon worked the eighth and allowed two hits and a run. Lefty Tony Watson retired one batter, two pitches, and cleaned up the Melancon mess. Sam Dyson survived the ninth (double, walk) when D.J. LeMahieu’s sharply-hit ball turned into a game-ending double-play. To be fair, the leadoff double off Dyson was a bloop, a total fluke. But had he merely recorded one out during LeMahieu’s at-bat, the Giants probably would have summoned lefty Will Smith to face Charlie Blackmon. Dyson only threw 11-of-19 pitches for strikes, and walking Chris Iannetta is inexcusable.

How badly did you need those saves, again?

• It’s not easy to figure Detroit’s bullpen, given the team is going nowhere. But Shane Greene has struggled this week, picking up two losses and pushing his ERA over 4. That 1.27 WHIP is mediocre, too. If and when the Tigers want to try someone else, Joe Jimenez (2.65/1.04, 41 K, 9 BB) has the profile of a closer. (Of course, Jimenez was knocked around Monday, too.)

I’m also holding onto Kirby Yates in San Diego, partly for the wipeout innings and partly for the possibility that Brad Hand is traded later this summer. To be fair, the Padres could and maybe even should shop Yates, too. They’re in a rebuild, and relief pitchers are a luxury for non-contending clubs. In the meantime, look at Yates’s 2018 domination — 0.82 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 40 whiffs against nine walks over 33 innings. He’s turned himself into a fantasy asset in medium and deep mixed leagues.

Have to figure Nick Kingham is back up with the Pirates sooner or later (Kuhl may be hurt). Kingham is at six-percent in Yahoo. Up and down first six starts, but his WHIP is under 1 and he averaged a strikeout per inning. Had a pedigree before TJ surgery. A good speculative play.

— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) June 27, 2018

• Whatever they did to fix Matt Carpenter, man oh man, it’s worked. Carpenter was hitting .140 as recently as May 15, but that’s when the party started. He’s on a .349/.424/.691 barrage in his last 38 games, with 33 runs, 12 homers, and 23 RBIs. (Sorry, he’s not a baserunner. But he does grab three positions in Yahoo leagues.)

Carpenter’s best game of the year came Tuesday against Cleveland, a 5-for-5 explosion with a double and two homers. Pretty heady stuff when you consider Corey Freaking Kluber started for the Tribe.

It’s likely Carpenter was playing hurt for the first few weeks of the year, and he’s also maintained a strong hard-hit profile all year. Some bad luck played into the nightmare start, sure. But no one bats .140 for six weeks without being part of the problem. The good news is that when Carpenter finally broke this slump, the signs were clear to see — he didn’t merely start collecting hits, he started ripping extra-base knocks. He batted .393 in the second half of May, with nine doubles, four homers, and a .738 slugging percentage.

Obviously not every slumping player gets a smooth landing. As I’ve said for years, everyone comes around, except when they don’t. But now we have to consider Carpenter back in the $20 and up class, especially when we factor in the three positions of eligibility. Heck, it wouldn’t be a stretch to put him on the All-Star team — his .136 OPS+ is just four points from a personal best, and he could be especially useful for the NL given his defensive versatility.

Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski

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