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thesportssoundoff · 5 years

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“Look there’s Holloway vs Edgar and you’re watching this so don’t even give me any of your shit” UFC 240 Preview

Joey

July 22nd, 2019

Every once in a while, about once a year or so, the UFC has a PPV that's utterly pointless. It's just a show on the schedule designed to make up for a cancelled show or just a PPV "make some money" cash grab. This card is a little bit column A, little bit column B and so there's really not much to say in the lead in. The UFC lost a show in January when they had a bunch of main events fall through and they needed to move Cejudo and Dillashaw to ESPN+. In response to that happening, the UFC wound up needing to fill a schedule slot and SO we get two July PPVs (we were originally going to get two October ones but they reconfigured the sched). To further complicate matters, they loaded up July (two title fights plus a crazy undercard) and loaded up August (DC/Stipe, Romero/Costa, Nate/Pettis, Heinisch/Brunson plus all sorts of goodies) so this PPV sandwiched in the middle got a whole bunch of nada. This is basically a three fight card and if we're being honest, it just might be a one fight card if you consider Neal/Price and Cyborg/Spencer pointless. The next three cards after this are all going to be pretty special in their own ways (DC/Stipe, Khabib/Dustin and Israel/Whittaker) so we're just here to kill some time at an unfair price point. This card is a collection of spent shell casings on the Old West that is MMA. The summer is basically the UFC's seasonal fuck up session; more people are willing to spend money in the summer but fighters don't like fighting and the schedule is so packed that you run the risk of just burning all your bullets. Barring something unforseen, this will be the worst PPV of the year but ya got Holloway/Edgar so I'll be there. OH and it's a Canadian card! Cursed!

Fights: 12

Debuts: Giacomo Lemos, Tanner Boser, Yoshinori Horie

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 1 (Lauren Murphy vs Mara Romero CANCELLED)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 4 (Frankie Edgar, Max Holloway, Cyborg, Alexis Davis)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 2 (Alexis Davis,Erik Koch)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 3 (Geoff Neal, Hakeem Dawodu, Alejandre Pantoja)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC): 22-12

Frankie Edgar- 2-1 Max Holloway- 3-1 Cyborg- 3-1 Felicia Spencer- 1-0 Geoff Neal- 3-0 Niko Price- 4-2 Olivier Aubin-Mercier- 2-2 Arman Tsarukyan- 0-1 Marc Andre Berriault- 0-1 Kryztsof Jokto- 1-3

Fights By Weight Class (yearly number here):

Featherweight- 3 (37) Welterweight- 2 (41) Women’s Flyweight- 2 (21) Middleweight- 1 (24) Flyweight- 1 (9) Women’s Featherweight- 1 (7) Heavyweight- 1 (22) Lightweight- 1 (45)

Bantamweight- (39) Light Heavyweight- (29) Women’s Bantamweight- (13) Women’s Strawweight- (19)

2019 Number Tracker

Debuting Fighters (20-43)- Tanner Bosse, Yoshinori Horie, Giacomo Lemos

Short Notice Fighters (20-27)-

Second Fight (40-16)- Kyle Stewart, Sarah Frota, Sueng Woo Choi, Viviane Araújo, Marc-André Barriault, Arman Tsaryukan

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (14-27)- Gavin Tucker, Frankie Edgar

Undefeated Fighters (25-29)- Giacomo Lemos

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (9-8)-

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (20-17)- Erik Koch, Sarah Frota, Max Holloway

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- In no small part, I think it's fair to acknowledge that moving PPVs to ESPN+ has, at least for me, dampened the enthusiasm fans have for PPV. Maybe that'll ultimately be a good thing but on principle alone, these cards seem a tick below the old school "gather round and party" UFC PPV events. Beyond that though, are we not giving Edgar vs Holloway its just due as a title fight? Max Holloway is still in my opinion the greatest featherweight of all time and this fight would be yet another step towards solidifying a potential hall of fame resume. It's not wrong to suggest that a stoppage over Edgar would be yet another step towards solidifying Holloway's spot among the GOAT. On the other hand, we just saw him get beaten up by Dustin Poirier up a weight class. Going up and taking a risk didn't impact BJ Penn and Conor McGregor but those two had a different sort of legacy and a more dedicated fanbase to make sure those things didn't matter. Frankie Edgar earned a title shot with wins over Jeremy Stephens and Yair Rodriguez before risking it all in the pursuit of being the ultimate company man. A short notice loss to Brian Ortega seemed to put him further to the back of the line but Edgar returned a little over a month later to decision Cub Swanson and has laid low since. In many ways, Edgar getting put back into the title picture is a rare example of the UFC doing something nice and fair. Edgar should've gone to the back of the line but instead the UFC rewarded him for doing them a favor in taking the Ortega fight.

2- Is the UFC being overly presumptious/optimistic in believing that the winner of this fight can make a quick enough turnaround to fight Volkanovski in early October? As champion, I think the quickest turnaround Frankie Edgar ever made was early October to late February but he was also 7 years younger then. For Holloway, December to March WAS supposed to be his quickest turnaround but he got hurt and the fight got scrapped.

3- Does Holloway have to finish Frankie Edgar to get his buzz back or would a win suffice for most fans?

4- Has any other fighter lost five straight title fights in the UFC? If Edgar loses to Holloway, I think he'll officially break his own record (that he holds with Urijah Faber who lost to Cruz and Barao twice).

5- I wonder IF the UFC could do it over, would they still go through with trying a female featherweight division. It got them a few Cyborg fights (which at the very least gave them a salvaged PPV or two) but overall, you have to wonder if this is what they expected when they (lazily) fell into the division. Although Felicia Spencer is probably a far more reputable opponent for Cyborg than when Cyborg was trying to get the UFC to sign Pam Sorenson.

6- The entire UFC/Cyborg situation could be done over the course of a few days but allow me the opportunity to try and paint the numbers here briefly:

Cyborg was signed because the UFC still had designs of Ronda (now vanquished by Holly Holm) making the comeback, rising up and facing Cyborg once before she'd go on to do other things. It didn't QUITE work out that way and so the UFC had a fighter they had no interest in taking up space on their cards. At this point Brazilian MMA was on a serious slump and Cyborg represented someone who could headline a card or two there, give the UFC some depth on PPVs. Then the UFC wound up deciding to go full bore with a 145 lb division----without Cyborg in the opening fight. It seemed like they were trying to set up Cyborg for the winner but GDR/Holm was a PPV bust and GDR didn't want the fight so they scrapped THAT and tried again with Cyborg as the lead dog. From there, Cyborg turned into a pretty decent PPV draw even though it always felt like this was an arraigned marriage more or less. Her two headliners did well enough (210K-ish vs Yanit, 375K-ish with Holly Holm) but the UFC never seemed to like her much and the feeling was mutual seemingly. Cyborg supported Leslie Smith's Project Spearhead on multiple occasions and would accuse the UFC of bias against her on a number of occasions. The UFC would in turn tell her to stop worrying about things that don't matter and for her to stop trying to act as her own matchmaker. There was a borderline embarrassing moment where Cyborg had a member of the media during a press conference ask Dana White to unblock her on Instagram. Both sides were in a convenient set up where they needed to at least tolerate one another and they could barely pull that off.

Things came to a head when the UFC finally sacked up (at the demands of Amanda Nunes seemingly) and gave us the champ vs champ fight. If Nina Ansaroff deserves a ton of credit for being a liason between the UFC and Amanda Nunes, Cyborg deserves an equal amount of credit for giving them a reason to get over Nunes wiping Meisha Tate and Ronda Rousey while also being a pest about doing media. Nunes wiped Cyborg out and the entire narrative on her changed in an instant. With the changing narrative though emerged the challenge; Nunes wanted a rematch, Cyborg wanted a rematch while the UFC had no interest in Cyborg vs Nunes II with one fight remaining on her deal. Cyborg flirted openly with leaving the UFC, said pretty much as such recently and just when the UFC felt like they were out of the Cyborg business, Amanda Nunes stirred it back up by wanting to REMATCH Cyborg still although I'd suppose the UFC doing a Cyborg fight by and large was bound to make it an issue regardless. Now the only buzz to the co-main is whether Cyborg can win to set up a potential rematch that 90% of the people watching probably have no belief in actually happening.

I think if everybody was on truth serum, you'd probably get a breakdown where everybody agrees that this has no chance of panning out in a positive sense. The UFC on a truth serum would probably be fine with Cyborg not fighting for them after this unless it was on some sort of team friendly deal so to speak (although all MMA contracts are team friendly given the nature of the biz). Cyborg would probably be just fine with fighting in Bellator and being some kind of a novelty act for her remaining fans unless the UFC paid her greatly and made some concessions on their protocol for fighter relations. Amanda Nunes is fine with whatever happens but she probably knows a Cyborg rematch as a co-main trumps trying to convince fans that a GDR rematch or a fight with Macy Chiasson or a fight with Yanit Kunitskaya is must see programming. Cyborg makes the most money in the UFC in theory, the UFC makes the most money with Nunes-Cyborg 2 and Nunes' career resume becomes GOAT regardless of gender if she finishes Cyborg again. It just requires too many ifs, buts or unless' to feel like it has any probability of happening.

7- Which does the UFC want more; a Cyborg win so they can quietly do away with 145 lbs or a Felicia Spencer win where they can stick to Cyborg one last time and maybe give Amanda Nunes something to do?

8- Even if it's probably an ESPN PPV prelim headliner on a more complete card, I'm really excited about Niko Price vs Geoff Neal. Of all the DWTCS guys signed, it could be argued that Geoff Neal is the best so far. He's an insanely good striker with stout takedown defense and some of the best in the pocket combinations you'll see at 170 lbs. He's developing more and more into someone who should be remembered as 170 lbs continues to amass depth in the middle rankings. I have some concerns about his ability to rally in a tough fight and I do think he'll struggle with the bigger welterweights but so far so good. Conversely Niko Price has gone from ultra exciting prospect to a solid proven action fighter who looks set to make the mantle of violent finisher at 170 lbs from the likes of Tim Means and Matt Brown. He'll be a great test for Neal and at the very least, this should be an exciting fight.

9- Is the bloom off of the Hakeem Dawodu rose or are we still holding on? He's 2-1 in the UFC but none of those performances were really of the standout variety. The fact that he's facing a debuting guy and not a proven 145 lber after beating Kyle Bochniak suggests the UFC is looking to slow it down, reassess and see if they can rebuild him again.

10- Can a fighter who is 16-5-1 be a prospect? I suppose that'll have to be the case with 27 year old HW Tanner Boser. Canada needs SOMEBODY to emerge from the mess and Boser, who has been fighting out in Russia, is probably one of their better chances unless you're sold on Gavin Tucker or Hakeem Dawodu. He kicks off the show vs Giacomo Lemos on ESPN+.

11- Erik Koch has fought in the UFC since 2011. He was one of MMA's weirdest resumes with elite names like Dustin Poirier, Rafael Asssuncao, Clay Guida, Ricardo Lamas and Bobby Green on it. He was a former title contender for Jose Aldo's featherweight title. He's got 21 pro fights, fought in three different UFC weight classes and is just NOW 30. You want to ask "Why are they bothering?" but clearly there's something they like there. Maybe Koch just finally needed to get healthy or maybe the UFC just feels some sort of compulsion towards having a guy who WAS going to be a #1 contender get on the right track. Just feels weird at this point. Koch faces Kyle Stewart who made a short notice debut in January as the first ever fight on the first ever ESPN card.

12- Three fighters on their second fights to keep an eye on; 1) Arman Tsarukyan on short-ish notice gave Islam Makhachev some serious problems as a quick scrambler who had some power in his hands. He was outwrestled but kept going at a pretty hot clip and made a good enough account of himself that he's on the MAIN CARD here against Olivier Aubin-Mercier. 2) Viviane Araujo looked fantastic against Talita Bernardo in a short notice fight up two weight classes. After beating Bernardo up for two rounds, she finished her with a flying knee in the third round to pick up the upset short notice win. She gets one of those "Let's see what they can't do!" step ups against the insanely slow but insanely strong veteran Alexis Davis. That one has potential to be messy. Lastly Sarah Frota looked pretty impressive in her UFC debut which was hampered by her completely blowing the 115 lb weight limit at 123 lbs. She's got some Thiago Silva-esque vibes in terms of being a powerful slow stalker who wings power shots at will and bets on her chin being better than yours when things get tough. She'll be facing Gillian Robertson who will offer nothing on the feet but is a tremendously adept grappler who can snag subs at will. Remember Livia Souza almost subbed Frota with an armbar.

#MMA #UFC #Edgar #Holloway #UFC 240 #Canada

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