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#i have so many stories from that pmg
mortispoxi · 2 months
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Seeing Twitter users recommending the People Make Games documentary as a good way to get insight on the issue is so….
I know, I’m always extremely disappointed whenever I come across someone who thinks it’s the end all be all explanations regarding the Studio ZA/UM situation.
Recommending that video always comes with a heavy caveat from me that the person needs to stop around the 40 minute mark since the interviewer shows a very clear bias that’s unbecoming of a journalist.
Regardless, now that more people are finding out about these layoffs, which might take out members of the studio that have been there since the beginning, it could finally help smack some sense into those Twitter users that actually thought, FOR SOME REASON, Rostov, Kurvitz, and Hindpere were lying for shits and giggles rather than seeing what's ACTUALLY going on which is that the investors have a very obvious agenda against the real wronged party. Hopefully this'll also open their eyes to how the People Make Games video fed into this twisted narrative that Kurvitz was somehow at fault/responsible for the theft of his own IP, but that might be asking too much from their concrete brains. Here's hoping though!
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lovesickry · 10 months
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- the devil is in the details.
┈⋆⭒ daniel ricciardo x fem!reader [1.2k] ┈⋆⭒ part 1 !
.𖥔 ݁ ˖ ⎯ find all parts here! .𖥔 ݁ ˖ ⎯ blurb: you knew him before he got famous, he got famous, you got a job. now years later, your job just so happens to be near him, but how will this fare on the way you left things years ago? .𖥔 ݁ ˖ ⎯ chapter contents: nothing, literally nothing .𖥔 ݁ ˖ ⎯ future warnings: will be smut. ( will probably be very filthy ). will be angsty, will be periods of niceness, maybe fluff but i’m a cold hearted bitch so. .𖥔 ݁ ˖ ⎯ brief background: this is not a y/n story i’m sorry i cant do that. so its an original character her name is dylan tait, she was born in perth but lives in melbourne, okay mwah. this is based from the years 2018-2021, but there will be flashbacks, but i’ll try and make the timeline as easy as i can to follow. i’m not all knowing about formula one, yes i know things, but if i don’t know the real scientific names just shush. ty. .𖥔 ݁ ˖ ⎯ a/n: his is a multi part fic and will probably be long LOL
present day: december 1st, 2017
you could feel your sweat slowly beading on your skin as you walked towards the mercedes building, holding the folder with all the things they said were required to secure the job. it was terrifying, absoultely nerve wracking, you’ve been to many job interviews in your life, but this one. this would be the worst, you were sure of it.
you were grateful as you opened the door and were hit with the freezing cold atmosphere of the waiting room, waiting to meet with the man who you had heavily engaged with over email, but never face to face. you sat there for an appropriate amount of town, recalling your rehearsed answers for the reasons you’d be good for the job etc, your experience, where you went to university, where you got your masters, your (acceptable) hobbies, how you work as a team, how you work individually. all the good stuff.
this calmed your nerves a bit and when the man opened the door and ushered you inside, shaking your hand introducing himself and gesturing to the folder of documents under your arm, you felt slightly more at ease than before.
the interview went as well as you could’ve hoped, he was impressed with your interest and experience in engineering at such a young age (27). you even managed to ease in your (slightly exaggerated almost) fluency in german, which he was loudly impressed with and responded “toto will love that”.
you left with a “thank you so much for this opportunity” and a “i’ll be in contact soon, thank you again”.
you couldn’t help smiling as you left, feeling proud of how you managed to not mess anything up initially. having a job in f1 being a dream of yours and working for mercedes. well shit. who wouldn’t dream of this. you’d applied for performance engineer, but wouldn’t be surprised if you got control engineer instead. the reminder that you were a woman in engineering applying for a widely male dominated area was a common unfriendly reminder, but that was honestly apart of the appeal.
“grace” you say
“GRACE grace grace grace”
“yes what i just woke up” she groaned
shit you forgot about time zones
“oh sorry, yeah, love you- anyway.”
you paused a bit
“I JUST HAD THE INTERVIEW AND IT WENT REALLY GOOD”
you heard some shuffling and then
“PMG SHIT YES I DIDNT. I FORGOT IT WAS TODAY, OMG FUCK YES YSS YES FUCKING MERCEDES FPRMULA ONE EMGINNER COMING THEOUGH HOLY SHIT”
“i know, i think i’m gonna scream when i get in my car”
“i don’t blame you”
“i just cant believe it, you know you have to fly over and visit me sometimes”
“hmmmm with what money dyl “
“i’ll literally pay for you once i’m a millionare, because you’ll still be my only friend”
“oh shut up”
“love you”
“i’m going back to sleep now, you’re amazing, have a drink or two for me, good whatever time it is there, you’re amazing”
“bye love you bye”
that was probably the cheesiest thing you’d done, admittedly, but what else does one do other than call their only friend on the other side of the world after a good interview.
——————————————————————————
3 days later:
there was still no response back about the job and honestly you were losing hope slightly. albeit finding ways to justify the belated response. because maybe, yes, you were being slightly impatient. but staying in london of all places by yourself, isn’t that much fun, you mainly just drank and took photos and than went back to your hotel, ( lamely ) reviewed blue prints of engines and aerodynamic rules or alternatively watched a documentary about the job you applied for. your days were blurry and you’d haven’t given much thought to the job you’d taken forcing the proximity of coming back into contact with your once good friend (complicated) daniel ricciardo until one night, after youd had your couple drinks and was on your walk home that his name “dannnnnniiieeellll🥸” illuminated your screen, the same contact name he set for himself approximately 7 years ago. you needed to change that, jesus. you didn’t really know what to do, but not answering at all was probably worse and you were drunk and hadn’t talked to anybody apart from grace and the interview man all week.
you pause your unsteady walk and swipe the screen and bring the phone to your ear, waiting for him to say something. but after he’s quiet for what felt like too many seconds you can’t help yourself.
“helllllloooooooooooooo”
“dan’el” the slur in your voice unmissable when you say his full name.
“hey” he says, flat and fast.
your swaying had been worse than you’d imagined when you’d brushed shoulders with someone, turning your head over your shoulder.
“oh, sorry”
“no problem love” tone thick with beer and blokeness.
the phone hanging at your leg brought back up to your ear to hear a small laugh, familiar and rhythmic and then.
“are you in london?” his first full sentence and the first multiple words he’s actually said to you in years.
“what how do you-“
“yes i’m in london” i give up
he hums in response,something you hated about him, the constant inability to shut up.
“why do you care” you say notebly less bitter than you mean.
“haven’t talked in a while”
“oh really”
you look at your messages, texts from you all left on delivered or read:
************ ************ ************ ************ *****
sun may 29. 2016
hey dan just wanted to reach out and say what happened in monaco was so unfair, i know your hurting you deserved that win. i’m here if you need.
july 1. 2016
happy birthday dan, getting so old
hey, tough day, wanna call?
sun. oct 2016
hey just finished watching, first malaysian win and against roseberg too, proud of you, !!!!
nov. 2016
i cant do this anymore, can you please talk to me?
i’m sick of this shit
dec. 2016
i miss you so fucking bad
(1) missed call from “dannnnnniiieeellll🥸”
feb. 2017
i’m gonna be in perth next month, can we please talk
(1) voicemail left
——————————————————————————
“yeah i know” he says, you can see him tugging his hair, frustrated, a small groan leaving his mouth
“okay im hanging up, i’ve tried talking to you, i don’t know what what you want” this isn’t fair for you.
“no- just- quickly- are you working at mercedes?”
you stop walking. what, how did he-
“uhhhh— no” you squeeze out, feigning as much honesty as you can.
“really?”
“hmmmmm” you pretend to ponder your answer
“goodbye daniel” it’s all you can muster up to say your self control nearly snapping everytime he speaks
“wait-“
you hang up, before he can squeeze another word in, before he can say anything that might bring back an inkling of what you felt for him, what you still feel for him. you can’t do it, not tonight.
(1) new voicemail from “dannnnnniiieeellll🥸”
god you need to change that name.
you’ll listen to it in the morning, not sure you’ll fully process it, in the state you are. you put your phone away, get to your hotel and go to sleep. thankfully.
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A deeper look at: Pat Metheny: From This Place (Nonesuch/Metheny Group Productions, 2020)
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Pat Metheny: guitars, keyboards; Gwilym Simcock: piano; Linda May Han Oh: bass; voice, Antonio Sanchez: drums with the Hollywood Studio Symphony conducted by Joel McNeely. Special guests: Luis Conte: percussion; Gregoire Maret: harmonica; Meshell Ndegeocello: vocals.
This review is dedicated to the memory Lyle Mays (1953-2020).  Your brilliance, and contribution to Metheny’s music, and the world of music as a whole will never be forgotten.
Pat Metheny enters a new phase of his career and era with From This Place. The guitarist has been regularly performing for the past several years be it with the stellar quartet that graces this release, Welsh pianist Gwilym Simcock, Malaysian-Australian bassist Linda May Han Oh and drummer of choice, Antonio Sanchez, in addition to duos with bass legend Ron Carter, and the experimental Side Eye project prominently featuring acclaimed up and coming young musicians. However, From This Place is the guitarist's first recording in six years since Kin (↔) with the Pat Metheny Unity Group.  To round out the core group, Metheny enlisted Metheny Group alumni Luis Conte on percussion, in addition to harmonica ace Gregoire Maret who played on and toured behind The Way Up. The guitarist also welcomes back arranger Gil Goldstein to the fold who appeared on Secret Story as well as the tour that followed, and the legendary Alan Broadbent. Meshell Ndegeocello sings on the title track with lyrics written by her partner Alison Riley.
Metheny has been no stranger to touring and constant playing, although the 66 year old has scaled back his once massive nearly year round touring schedule to about 150-200 dates around the world to accommodate family life, the fact that From This Place is the first album in six years is a bit of anomaly in his release history.  The music industry has rapidly changed in recent years: the rise of streaming sites like Spotify, Amazon HD Music, and Qobuz in addition to Youtube has changed the way the public consumes music. CD sales have rapidly declined, although they still outsell vinyl, which is continuing it’s resurgence.  Metheny has been an example of an artist where physical releases are truly special, almost an event.  Going back to his days on ECM, he has always benefited from striking cover art, often being involved directly in the process itself, something rare nowadays.  He has adopted not only streaming, but usage of Bandcamp and offers up audiophile high resolution mastering of the new recording on platforms like HD Tracks and Pro Studio Masters, though the advent of Youtube almost a decade ago and frequent camera phone videos (as well as bootlegs in general) have been an impediment to the guitarist and thus resulted in the controlled studio environments that spawned The Orchestrion Project and Unity Sessions video and album releases reflective of how he approached the music live on tour.
The guitarist has also in the past decade drastically changed his approach to music.  While his recordings with the Pat Metheny Group featuring co founder, keyboardist and writing partner, the late Lyle Mays were and continue to be his most popular works balancing complex forms with memorable melodies.  Since the PMG's final recording The Way Up in 2005, the guitarist has focused on increasingly complex, harmonically dense music that has entered new arenas. This music, featured on albums like Orchestrion, Tap (where he played the music of John Zorn) and Kin(<->) while bearing his inimitable melodic stamp, if one were to peruse various internet discussions, some fans felt that these albums had a higher barrier of entry and wished for more melodic material-- while all these albums, plus Unity Band featured exemplary writing, occasionally the melodies took their time to unfold.  While many of these melodies contained Metheny’s unmistakable essence, From This Place for the most part, goes back to  where his melodies are instantly memorable and singable. Because the album features backing from the Hollywood studio symphony, in addition to the core quartet,  some listeners may automatically assume it is a direct sequel to Secret Story,  the album is anything but. Though it at times conjures moods of the earlier album, the similarities end beyond surface comparisons. The fact is Metheny has moved far beyond that period in his writing, and improvisational abilities, and his writing is the best it's ever been. The album is somewhat of a career summation, but like many others in his discography like Speaking Of Now, or Imaginary Day, the contents also show a new path forward.  This album is firmly rooted in the interplay and solos of a quartet, as Unity Band was, though the the backing of the orchestra, with arrangements centered on what the quartet played, change the complexion considerably.  It is also the first time the guitarist has had a pianist for a foil in his own bands since Lyle Mays.
The genesis for how this music came to be is fascinating.  Around December of 2017, Metheny went into the studio with Simcock, May Han Oh and Sanchez, and laid down sixteen new compositions, of which ten are on this release.  As the music began to be played, he began to hear things inside of it that had yet to be manifested.  The guitarist had logged considerable road time with bassist Ron Carter, whom he played several duo gigs.  During the travel time, Metheny asked Mr. Carter, a lifelong hero of his about the process of playing in the Miles Davis Quintet from 1963-1968-- more specifically, why did they stick to Davis' standard book in concert?  The bassist has frequently described the nightly experiences of playing with Davis as being a laboratory, and they developed a certain code on the bandstand, where through playing standards, they were able to use said code in the creation of new music in the studio.  
From that inspiration, Metheny toured the quartet on the road playing selections from his vast songbook.  They too, would use their own code, something not entirely unfamiliar.  After all, the first recording that Antonio Sanchez participated in was Speaking of Now (2002) with the Pat Metheny Group, and that album, like From This Place was an evolutionary album, which set the stage for the  larger territory tackled in  The Way Up.  The seeds sown in the compositional processes found there would be in Orchestrion and Kin (↔).  The present quartet has really inspired him, and arguably is closest in conception and flavor to the original PMG in terms of broad stylistic conception.  Longtime Metheny fans who have been at shows in that period, or in collector's circles are quite familiar that the early PMG experimented with new tunes before recording, including standards into the set list as well as playing fan favorite tracks.  Something quite similar to the current quartet. As Metheny explained vis a vis the approach to add orchestration to flesh out the playing of the quartet he notes:
As much as folks might describe the sonic language of the avant-garde movement of the sixties as falling into an identifiable generic sound, I have always regarded the general expansion of creativity of that era in a more ecumenical way.
The stylistic changes that occurred then in our community included not only the obvious examples of individual players utilizing extended techniques on their instruments in new ways, or new types of ensembles, but also the wildly new approaches that technology, particular recording technology, offered.
Multi-track recording allowed for entirely new kinds of music to be made.
It is unlikely that the recordings of the CTI label of that time would likely never be thought of as “avant-garde” by garden variety jazz critics of that (or probably any other) era. But from my seat as a young fan, the idea of an excellent and experienced arranger like Don Sebesky taking the improvised material of great musicians like Herbie Hancock and Ron Carter and weaving their lines and voicings into subsequent orchestration was not only a new kind of arranging; it resulted in a different kind of sound and music. 
It was a way of presenting music that represented the impulses of the players and the improvisers at hand through orchestration in an entirely new way. I loved those records.
This will not be the first recording of mine where that equation—record first, orchestrate later—has come up. But it is by far the most extensive one, and I would offer the most organic. From the first notes we recorded, this was the destination I had in mind.
Don Sebesky's arranging skills, found on recordings such as First Light (1971) by Freddie Hubbard, Sunflower (1972) by Milt Jackson and his own Giant Box (1974) illustrate the approach Metheny had in mind.  The track “Wide and Far” is not the first Metheny track to feature an overt homage to the CTI sound.  “So May It Secretly Begin” from the classic (Still Life) Talking (1987) was also an Sebesky homage, particularly in the rich Synclavier string arrangement, but “Wide and Far” positioned as the second cut on From This Place takes that arranging influence to a far deeper level.  The melody is simply prime Metheny, with string, reed and brass sections that in some ways are reminiscent of Freddie Hubbard's Sky Dive (1972) album.  The guitarist, spurred by Sanchez's liquid ride and May Han Oh's of the earth bass takes an inspired solo, amidst soaring orchestral harmonies.  There is a deep in the cut funkiness aspect of Metheny's playing here that not only exhibits the sheer joy of playing with this special class of musicians, but his  nods to George Benson here appear  more overt than they did on “Here To Stay” from the Metheny Group's We Live Here (1995).  It is a beautiful homage, and the handoff to Gwilym Simcock on the bridge section is seamless, where the pianist weaves, fresh lines in his very individual voice. The Welsh pianist was a late bloomer to the jazz world, as he began playing the music in his twenties. Over the course of two decades with associations such as former reedist with Chick Corea's Origin, Tim Garland and the Steve Rodby produced Impossible Gentlemen, Simcock has been one of the most in demand pianists.  During the quartet's 2017 performance at the Beacon Theater it was amply evident how much the guitarist enjoyed having a pianist against as co conspirator and solo voice. The quality is evident in spades on From This Place and one wonders the possibilities were Metheny and Simcock to become co writers.  Also in the Davis Quintet mold, Metheny had each member have input on the material and three of the four members arrange pieces, save Sanchez who acts as an arranger in real time crafting colors and textures based on what the music calls for.  While the recording has several trademark cinematic numbers, perhaps none so than “America Undefined” a defiant statement against the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President.  The piece draws on the more complex material found on Orchestrion and Kin (↔). Linda May Han Oh, a wonderful leader and composer in her own right, most recently used strings in provocative ways on her latest work Aventurine, and brings that deep orchestral awareness and attention to shading found in her own work to From This Place.
A Sanchez cymbal roll leads into May Han Oh's ascending arco bass melody, which bears some similarity and extends on a bit, the post solo interlude section of the Kin (↔) title track featuring Giulio Carmassi's ascending vocals in tandem with guitar in piano.  May Han Oh's arco melody sets a prominent melodic thread through the piece, and Metheny adds signature hollow body guitar over a rubato foundation that gives way to him once again stating the melody with orchestra behind him in a 5/8 time signature. During the melodic statement, Simcock and May Han Oh play a stunning unison counterpoint line, reminiscent of Bach.  Simcock's piano solo begins with the rubato foundation, Sanchez adding provocative rim clicks and fascinating comping underneath. From there, Simcock is vaulted into a burning 4/4 swing and samba section sans bass drum accents, the orchestra reminding listeners of the melodic cel behind them.  Simcock's solo is filled with vigorous single note ideas, he is a devotee of Metheny's entire catalog, also bearing out why he is an evolution in Metheny's concept of a pianistic foil—something the guitarist clearly relishes. Metheny follows with a soaring, inspired hollow body solo, the orchestra's harmonies providing a huge lift.  
May Han Oh returns with the initial melodic figure at the top, and then around 8 minutes into the piece, what sounds like Orchestrion vibes introduce a much darker, brooding mode.  Shades of the sound effect and musique concrete driven sections of “As Falls Wichita, So Falls Wichita Falls” are here, with some of the strangeness of the soundscape section of “Are We There Yet?” from Letter From Home in terms of eerie sounds wafting in and out of the mix.  The sounds of clunking, and railroad tracks dominate as the strings remind of the melody once again, May Han Oh's thunking pedal point from earlier in the composition is yet another thematic thread.  Metheny uses slide and ebow guitar as a constant distant drone, and provides disembodied strands of further distanced electric guitar in the sound stage bouncing between speakers (or headphones).  At first listen it seems to be a call back to “Cathedral in a Suitcase” from Secret Story (1992), but upon further listens is more reminiscent of the distorted guitar deeply embedded into the mix at the start of “Psalm 121” on the soundtrack of The Falcon And The Snowman (1985). The bluesiness of these disembodied lines somehow evokes uncertainty, and the loud bells of a railroad sign, as the orchestra spins variations on the main theme, let you know something is coming. Suddenly, Sanchez' slightly gated drums, a not so subtle Phil Collins and 80's production reference, and reminder of Steve Ferrone's toms on “Cathedral in a Suitcase” thunder in, to the sound of a loud train whistle, panning through the speakers. Sanchez's driving, John Bonham inspired rock beat along with the symphonies' restatement of a portion of the melody makes things truly epic.  The five minutes of orchestral investigation is truly thrilling and shows how deep of a writer Metheny has become.  Indian flavored strings play portamento glissando with microtonal elements, like those used on “Within  You, Without You” from The Beatles are an unexpected but pleasant element in a breathtaking finale.  The piece dies down with the fluttering of castanets, like birds flying away in a flock, eerie sampled vocal sounds in the left channel, fluttering and processed abrupt flutes and strings.  It's an unexpected end to a piece using some variant of a sonata form but never resolves itself completely.  Make no mistake about it, the piece is foreboding and dark, tapping into a new area of Metheny's writing, but strangely, there is also a trace of hope.
“You Are” is one of the most striking offerings on the recording.  Since Bright Size Life (ECM, 1975) on every album, the guitarist has had a melodic idea that his pushes to the breaking point through motivic development. Simcock's piano quietly begins the track doubled by chiming orchestra bells, a tip toeing two note figure is stated in unison, with sparse brushed cymbal work from Sanchez. Metheny's dark hollow body tone announces the melody, as the two note figure is enhanced by a wall of synthesizers, and strings.  May Han Oh's soprano voice is added to the density as she and Metheny state an arresting three note idea that builds and builds to a dramatic climax, before gentle strings sing in hushed tones as the original two note motif returns to close the piece.
Flutes double May Han Oh's resonate bass for the gentle melancholic theme of “Same River”.  The acoustic sitar guitar makes it's first appearance since “Wherever You Go” from Speaking of Now, and Metheny's double tracked guitar and sitar make use of one of his favorite devices, the glissando. Simcock plays a tasteful brief piano solo before the guitarist takes a trademark flight on Roland GR300 guitar synth, gorgeous ascending french horn and string harmonies-- the CTI reference is indeed very clear in this track with strong doses that will recall listeners of the PMG at their peak and some flavors of Secret Story (1992).
“Pathmaker” represents some of Metheny's most adventurous writing on record.  The track, along with “Everything Explained” bear a strong Chick Corea influence.  Metheny is positively lyrical on his first solo, then Simcock is at once melodic and knotty.  One of the most exquisite aspects of the track is the  unison line between Metheny and Simcock following the second guitar solo as Sanchez frames a volcanic dialogue around their line.  The provocative dreamy coda, sounding something out of a French film score, utilizes choice coloration from bass clarinet amidst butterfly esque clarinet string trills and some  electronics popping in and out.  Atop all that, Metheny's heavily reverbed slide guitar offers a longing melodic aside as the composition finishes. PMG alum and frequent Phil Collins percussionist Luis Conte's omnipresent colorations are a tremendous asset to the track.
If anything will make listeners make direct comparisons to Secret Story it will be the track “The Past In Us”. PMG alumni Gregoire Maret's reflective harmonica solo may remind some of the late Toots Thielemans' unforgettable eight bar contribution to “Always and Forever”, with the swelling strings behind him. Metheny graces the track with an absolutely gorgeous nylon string guitar solo. The final tracks are also perfectly programmed.  The title track stands as one of the guitarist's prettiest ballads, gorgeous strands of Bach inspired baroque strings frame a long intro, from which hymn like harmonies emerge. Ndegeocello's rich voice in alto and soprano ranges paints a picture of despair and hopelessness with tender lyrics related to the current cultural climate-- yet like much of Metheny's music over the years stands a bright ray of hope.  He takes an exquisite nylon string solo here as well.
“Sixty-Six” is a beautiful reminder of the midwestern tinges returning to the fore in Metheny's music.  The train motif is once again stated, with Sanchez' brushes on snare, and the guitarist spins a wonderful, singable melody over the top, and mixes the lyrical with the more harmonically rich approach to improvisation that has marked his work over the past decade.  Linda Oh's initial solo is full of ripe ideas, and her double tracked bass interlude following the guitarist's solo is an affectionate wink to Eberhard Weber.  To close the album, the Sebesky arranged CTI vibe returns on “Love May Take A While”, a wonderful ballad that if one closes their eyes, one can almost imagine Metheny's nuanced hollow body solo to be a horn, in his assurance of ideas.  
Sound
From This Place was principally recorded and mixed by Pete Karam at Avatar Studios (now Power Station, Berklee) with the orchestral parts recorded by Rich Breen in Los Angeles.   Karam has inherited the very rich sonic world found on Metheny recordings that was originally created and perfected from the Geffen era on by Rob Eaton.  Metheny's guitars take front and center in the sound stage with the delay from his multiple amp set up panning between the left and right speakers-- the effect is not as pronounced as say Travels, Question and Answer or Letter From Home, but is still there and has evolved as Metheny's tone has changed through the first two decades of the 21st century.  Linda May Han Oh's basslines appropriately showcase the deep woodiness of an acoustic bass sound and is quite accurate to the real thing.  Antonio Sanchez' drums are very present and forward in the mix with the main ride cymbal in the left channel, and his multiple snare drums being placed across the sound stage.
Luis Conte's percussion is also quite forward in the mix, and Simcock's piano is rich.  Orchestra placement is subtle to the rear of the soundstage.  What is apparent though is unlike earlier Metheny albums, the mix, like Kin (↔) the previous studio album is heavier on the mids, with not as much treble sparkle up top though this may be clearly system dependent.  Also interesting, while the album will be released in high res, the promo copies that were distributed by Nonesuch are 16 bit WAV files with a 48 KhZ sample rate equivalent to DVD quality, so while not hi res, the quality is a step from CD quality.  Thankfully Ted Jensen's mastering maintains a strong sense of dynamics which is imperative for music of this scope.
Final thoughts:
In what has been a career spanning nearly a half century, and filled with gems and milestones from both solo work and the Pat Metheny Group combined, From This Place may very well be one of the best albums of Metheny's career, if not the best.  His writing is clearly on another level, and as great as recordings with orchestra accompaniment have been like The Falcon and The Snowman, Secret Story and A Map of The World have been, the combination of one of his best ensembles in years, the inspired memorable tunes, great solos and the high level of arranging prowess,  represent the guitarist at his best.  The music is as much a summary of what has been to this point as it is pointing some new directions into the future.  Those who take the time to listen, understand the music for what it is, rather than what it should be, or is not, will be greatly rewarded.
Music: 10/10
Sound: 9/10
Edit: I made an addendum to the date of the recording which I previously stated as December 2016.  After the NYC Beacon Theater show in June 2017, Antonio Sanchez told me they were going into the studio to record, that December.
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pamperrypr · 3 years
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Honored to be the cover story for @sistahtalkemag 🥰 Thank you for the feature! I love telling my story about #pr #branding to inspire others and your magazine is so aligned with that mission! #sistahtalkemag #swipeleft⬅️ . . Excerpt What is Your Back Story in PR & Marketing? ➡️ I am a graduate of Wayne State University School of Journalism - with a concentration in Advertising & Public Relations. Graduated with Honors many moons ago- while at Wayne I worked at the school newspaper, radio station, WDET, an ad agency and before I graduated I got a job at the Detroit Free Press. Going to a school in the city offered me "real world" experience in a major media market. 👉🏾What made you decide to go in the Public Relations & Marketing? It's something I felt 'called to" - I am very good and promoting. Noticed it when I was a teen at #CassTech and while I was a member of my childhood church, Corinthian. I was the person people called on to promote something, write something or bring people together for an event. I was always a "people" person and loved to write. I had the gift of communication. When did you decide to start your business? I always wanted to have my own business. I started 3 business before I started the one I now have had for over 20 years. My first business was when I got fired from an agency - and I started "PPC" - Pam Perry Consulting. Never registered it. Just got business cards. I was 28 or so. It was a mess. Then I started Special Events & Meeting Planners (SEMP)... at 30 - that was a hot mess too. I hated planning events - I only really like promoting them. So that didn't work out. Then I worked with my husband, we owned Perry Marketing Group. It was an ad agency - and I was the VP of Public Relations. After our daughter was born, I left my job at Public Relations Director of The Salvation Army and joined Marc at PMG. I did that for four years before the company went out of business. I really was developing my business idea while at PMG. The agency worked with automotive type of clients - and I wanted to work with nonprofits, churches and authors/speakers. (More in issue) #motivationalspeakers #pamperrypr (at National Speakers Association) https://www.instagram.com/p/CQXkhXzMOMn/?utm_medium=tumblr
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readysetgaikokujin · 7 years
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I ever told y’all about how I fell for my husband in particular?
There’s no real written record of this. I don’t know why I want to write it out, but I did. The buildup to the moment where I fell in love with the man I was going to marry for some reason feels nice to write out right now. It’s personal, but no names are mentioned, so I don’t mind if you reblog/comment!
When I was a freshman in high school, I had this one friend who has always been and will probably always be my idea of pretty. I didn’t know this girl well AT ALL when we got to talking, because unlike everyone else in my podunk high school she had just moved to our small town at the start of freshman year... and for some reason she picked me to say hi to.
She was the color mint personified and she walked like glamour but talked like trailer trash, and she literally only owned thong underwear and knew everything there was to know about makeup, and she backtalked her mom like they were the same age and smelled like expensive perfume even during gym class, and to be honest she scared me a bit more than a little bit, but that was exciting. I don’t know why she liked me.
So anyway, it got to where we slept over regularly and we would always trade whose house we stayed at. I think I was too self-involved to see she wanted a place to get away from Friend-Mom, who sassed her own daughter in ways that made me blush. So one time she was sleeping over at mine and we rented “But I’m A Cheerleader” from Blockbuster.
I know.
I spent the whole movie confused because I was in a relationship with a bad guy at the time, and therefore felt nothing when I was with him. But around this friend of mine I had flutteries sometimes, which I attributed to wanting to actually BE her instead of wanting to be WITH her. I was in my “girly things are not for me” phase, stubbornly not doing the things I wanted to do because they were “for other girls”.
I KNOW.
So naturally I was sweating bullets next to Pretty Mint Girl while she lay on the floor nonplussed, kind of making fun of the movie at times. I barely moved throughout the whole thing, like I was scared she would find out I was a Liar if I breathed funny. Like I should convince myself I was not a Liar, but then why did I like it when my friend leaned on me with her oldest dog-smelling sweatshirt on? Only Liars have to pretend to not be Liars.
Looking back on it now, I think this was the moment I knew I wasn’t straight, but had no idea what I was besides that-- so I pushed it down. It was tough, because on top of fluttery Pretty Mint Girl feelings, I also had fluttery feelings for the tall boy whose mom brought his pet kitten in their pickup truck when she picked him up from school, and for the boy two grades ahead of me that was going to join the Army and called me ‘honey’ like he was going to protect me, and for the girl who liked Kitten Boy also and wore too much eyeliner and ran her fingers through my hair during lunch.
I KNOW.
We go to sleep, Pretty Mint Girl on the floor and me in my bed, and life moved on. We actually didn’t have too much in common, PMG and me, so we drifted over time. She was a smoker, which led to me having some bad habits later in high school, and even though I bought my first thong because of her urging, she was too intense for me. I don’t know when I realized I wasn’t thinking of her anymore. I had applied for the dance elective to hang out with her when we had been friends, but by the time the new semester rolled around, we weren’t talking a lot and we were placed in separate dance classes.
Most of the girls in dance elective knew each other because they also took dance classes from the local studio. Or they were there to goof off. But one girl, Serious Girl, was there to learn and didn’t seem to have just one clique or group. She moved around talking to everyone.
Around this time was when I became friends with Hubs. He was in a sad relationship with an older girl. I was still in a bad relationship with a homeschooled kid. We were both really into writing long notes detailing our thoughts, and he became one of my best friends really quickly even though he was mad popular and had more people to talk to besides me. Sometimes we would go days without seeing each other, but our conversations when we did talk were always really deep and fulfilling. I wanted to tell him what I was thinking, I really did. But I could never write it down, even though our notes talked about everything else under the sun. Plus his girlfriend kind of scared me.
I wanted to talk to someone, anyone, about how different two girls could be even while making me feel the same way. Pretty Mint Girl had been explosive and wild, and I had liked being near her because it was better than catching an ember in the eye from standing on the outskirts. She knew what she liked about herself and flaunted it happily, very proud of all things girly and pretty and glitz, and made me want to be more. Serious Girl was like a cool drink from a water fountain-- she seemed necessary, but not glamorous, and that was refreshing. She was taller than me, intense, and a complete dork. She also looked like a model, but unlike PMG she didn’t know much about playing that up.
I KNOOOOOW...
And a small part of me knew then. Kind of. Not in so many words. I remember thinking, “I’m going to try it. Let’s see which feelings are the Liars.”
I was gearing up to ask Serious Girl out (which... I didn’t have a car, or money, or a mom who would let me stay out after dark, so I don’t know what that meant, but boy howdy I was going to do it) when I overheard her and another group chatting about our school’s loudest attention-seeker. Everyone was dressing for class, and I was in the corner like always.
“Did you hear that ----- says she’s bi now?”
“What even is that?”
“You sometimes kiss girls.”
“So a lesbian in denial?”
“Yeah. Just like she said she was related to the Smallville actress,” SG said. “Liar.”
“She’s dating a girl at another school.”
“That’s disgusting,” SG said. “People like that...”
... 
... 
... I know.
I didn’t ask her out.
I didn’t think about her, or Pretty Mint Girl, at all. In fact, I began to push away other close female friends who felt too Comfortable.
I kissed the guy who called me ‘honey’, and he would have called me every day and written me letters from basic had I felt something when our lips touched. I kissed a friend of mine who other girls wanted to date, whose binders of printed-at-the-library original erotica I edited for grammar mistakes during chemistry class, and he would have dated me for a little while had I felt something when our lips touched. I kissed a boy I thought was dumb, because he looked like Kitten Boy, but he was only half as nice and would never have done anything for me even if I had felt something when our lips touched.
Life moved on. I broke up with Homeschool after he told me that girls who like girls AND boys just double the chances of cheating on their partner. I got a bit emo and I wrote a lot of stories about girls falling through dimensions and fighting their way home. I went on field trips to the water treatment plant and the rec center, and I participated in School Spirit Week. I did homework. I stayed almost every weekend with my one best friend who knew me too well to let me push her away when things got too Comfortable, because her mom didn’t ask questions and ordered me crab rangoon and we could play videogames until our thumbs hurt. And slowly, flutteries came back.
I started to realize that I thought of Hubs all the time, every day, sometimes for hours a day.
We talked more now. So much so that his girlfriend started to try to edge me out. Hubs told me to ignore her, that he liked me just fine, that she was weird to do that to his friend. I used my friend’s cell phone to text him, then to try to flirt with him. He flirted back, but I was convinced it was just his personality. Guys or girls, he always responded as saucily as possible, unless it was a serious topic that we had outlined deserved serious answers. He listened to me. Not just that, but he advised, or distracted, or joked depending on what I said I needed. That’s what best friends do, I realize, but then he broke up his girlfriend.
Our notes changed in tone. He told me how he felt around me, but never asked me out. He hinted, tentative, and I chased. He was on another level than me: whereas I was looking inward he was always thinking of others. He was extroverted, wild, compassionate, and I could NOT track him worth a damn. But for some reason he called me during his work breaks, wrote me notes during History, and drove me to the gas station to get drinks cups full of M&Ms during lunch. He skipped school, but brought me back Oreos. He slept in class, but helped me study. He was a bit of a bad boy, in the nicest way.
I decided to skip school with him and some of his friends and one of my friends. We went to the state fair. His friend, let’s call him Dead Tooth, was a player despite literally having a dead tooth. Hubs watched him watch me, but didn’t say anything. I think he worried I would be angry, in a romance-novel-esque “I can take care of myself” way. I would have been; I was stubborn. But knowing Hubs had my back should something happen was a confidence boost. I flirted with Hubs, who responded like he always did.
The girl I was with pulled me aside and confessed she liked Hubs. I offered to back off with the flirting, told her we were just friends, and she waved me away as she smoked.
“No, go for it,” she said. “He’s into you. Go for it.”
I didn’t, but Dead Tooth did. We were all in a group getting airbrush tattoos  with glitter when he caught me and surprised me with a kiss. I expressed surprise, told him not to do that again.
Hubs said nothing, just pulled me to his side and caught my hand. He didn’t let go for the rest of the day, and when I asked him about why, he told me that he didn’t like that Dead Tooh had done that. He said Dead Tooth had done it to get to him. I half-jokingly told him he could kiss me too, if he wanted. He leaned over and immediately kissed my cheek.
Flutteries. Crazy flutteries.
The ride home, he sat me by the window while Dead Tooth drove, putting himself in the middle. The next day at school, he avoided me during lunch. Later that week, I wrote him a note that I wanted to skip school with him again. Maybe with just him. He told me in another note passed back during lunch, “I don’t know that we should be alone together. We can skip school if you bring someone else.”
I did. He kissed me anyway, and it tasted like my bubblegum lipgloss.
Months later, after he’d asked me out in his bedroom with both of us laying on his bed staring up at his walls that were painted rich, bright green, we started to talk about getting kinda physical. What did we like, what was okay, what had we done before, all of that fun communicative stuff. And it ate at me. I could tell him everything, but I had never told anyone out loud how I’d had flutteries for girls. Not just one girl either. I knew it was me. I was defective. From the moment I used google to look up “can girls kiss each other”, to the moment when I begged my best friend to dare another girl to kiss me at a sleepover, to the moment when I bought my first thong with Pretty Mint Girl--
I know.
So I told him. We went to see a movie, then afterwards we drove to the local park to make out, and I couldn’t wait to tell him. It was dark, intimate in a confining sort of way in the cab of his messy pickup truck, and I focused on the silly fuzzy dice he had hanging from his rearview while I talked. Couldn’t look at him. I literally could only choke out, “I don’t... think... I’m straight.” And then tears came. I geared up almost like it was a breakup waiting to happen, because I thought he would end it right there. I wasn’t just telling him that I wasn’t straight, I was admitting that I never had been. I was not who he’d thought, I was going to someday discover that I had no interest in men, I was a hopeless ex waiting to happen.
Laying kind of on his lap, the stick shift biting into my side as I cried, I remember him lightly petting me. It reminded me of the way someone pets an animal they are trying not to scare off.
“We don’t have to talk about it now,” he said. “But I don’t believe anybody is 100% straight.” He paused, then asked, “Do you care about me?”
I nodded.
“Want to keep dating me?”
Nod.
“Then that’s what’s important.”
His voice was tight, like he was uncomfortable at the situation, but his hand was on my head and he was trying his best to reassure me. He wasn’t angry. He didn’t accuse me, or ask me if I would cheat on him. He didn’t light up as if this was his own personal chance at a fetish. He was uncomfortable because as a teenager, he didn’t know how to tell another teenager more than ‘you are not abnormal’. But when he said that, it helped. It was enough, and it was comforting.
And thanks to that moment where he wanted to be sure I knew I was okay, a moment I would appreciate even if I hadn’t fallen in love with him...
I really do know.
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wikimakemoney · 4 years
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OTT in the time of COVID-19: Using social to drive adoption
30-second summary:
Historically, OTT brands excel in social media marketing by using their original content as the centerpiece of their ads. While many are consuming content on social channels, OTT brands can utilize this unique content to persuade users to tune into their offering.
In addition to the number of eyeballs available via social media at this time, another opportunity for OTT brands is presented in the fact that the space is less crowded with many pausing media efforts due to affected business operations, sensitives and more.
As OTT platforms and studios are promoting their new movies, they must take well thought out steps. First, they must figure out what their objective is. Next, identify the target audience for the movie itself and align it to which social platform makes the most sense.
Video is always the best option for OTT platforms since that is their primary output. For shows and films alike, trailer-specific content is readily available and can be adjusted into six second or 30 second cuts to post across various social media outlets.
For OTT brands, direct to home releases could be a norm for them going forward. As such, during this time they should build good partnerships with movie studios while they have the upper hand.
Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, OTT platforms are experiencing a unique moment. With millions at home, people are craving new content.
According to PMG partner insights, Pinterest has seen incredible YOY spikes in engagement, including a 60% jump in searches, a 30% boost in sign-ups and a 43% increase in board creation. Meanwhile, YouTube captures 10M search queries and billions of views worldwide related to COVID-19 authoritative news coverage every day and Reddit is experiencing double-digit growth in site visits.
Considering how much you’ve likely seen about ‘Tiger King’ on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook, it’s no surprise that many are turning to the likes of Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Hulu to bide their time.
Because of the major disruptions caused by COVID-19, these OTT platforms have even become landing pads for feature films and studios as they respond to movie theater closures.
As such, we’ve seen rapid home releases of Invisible Man, The Hunt and Emma, and SXSW will premiere its film lineup on Amazon Prime Video.
Additionally, with fans yearning for sports content, ESPN has announced that the release of its anticipated 10-part series about Michael Jordan, The Last Dance, has been pushed from June to April.
As OTT offerings continue to grow and change, social media platforms are an effective channel to drive OTT adoption rates while offering much-needed escapist content.
The social media landscape during COVID-19 
With events and entertainment in the outside world put on hold, people are turning to social media for escape and distraction, whether it be watching celebrities and musicians on Instagram Stories or tagging each other in memes across a variety of platforms.
Content creation is on the rise – TikTok and Twitch, two of the main creator channels, are experiencing a significant jump in videos and streams as creators and consumers alike seek an outlet.
This increased consumption creates a massive opportunity for OTT brands to get in front of a large and engaged audience.
Historically, OTT brands excel in social media marketing by using their original content as the centerpiece of their ads. While many are consuming content on social channels, OTT brands can utilize this unique content to persuade users to tune into their offering.
This is all part of the continued trend of growing OTT promotion via social media. Being a competitive landscape, OTT brands are fighting hard for people’s subscriptions.
Quibi, a mobile short-form video platform, spent millions on social media advertising, even before its April 6th launch. They clearly understood the stakes and wanted to take advantage of a wide audience at home.
Cautious opportunities for OTT brands
In addition to the number of eyeballs available via social media at this time, another opportunity for OTT brands is presented in the fact that the space is less crowded with many pausing media efforts due to affected business operations, sensitives and more.
However, advertising during this crisis, of course, requires a hypersensitive evaluation of tone. Internal teams must adopt a heightened scrutiny of their messaging and approach to ensure that content strategy is relevant, effective, and sensitive to the situation at hand.
Navigating OTT promotion via social media
For movie studios, an OTT platform release is very different from a typical theater release. Historically, studios would get the word out that a movie was available through a spray and pray approach with high impact media placements.
With OTT listings, they also need to educate the audience on which platform it’s available through. This adds another element to get across in promotions and requires studios to analyze if they’re actually convincing people to adopt streaming services.
As OTT platforms and studios are promoting their new movies, they must take well thought out steps.
First, they must figure out what their objective is. Is it awareness of the movie or movie streams? Ideally, it’ll be a solid mixture of both. It’s important that people know the movie exists but also to know exactly where it’s available so they can act on it.
Next, identify the target audience for the movie itself and align it to which social platform makes the most sense.
YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram are already major players and should be part of every social media plan due to these platforms’ expansive reach and targeting capabilities — but there are other options to explore.
For example, younger audiences can be reached through TikTok and Snapchat. Pinterest is traditionally a great avenue for mothers who are looking for ideas of what to do with kids at home, making it great for promoting family-focused content.
Meanwhile, Twitch and Reddit can reach tech-driven and male-skewed audiences. It’s important that teams think carefully to ensure they’re reaching the right people, in the right way, during this sensitive time.
Video is always the best option for OTT platforms since that is their primary output. For shows and films alike, trailer-specific content is readily available and can be adjusted into six second or 30 second cuts to post across various social media outlets.
Another way to be creative includes slide shows with three to five static images to flip through on Facebook and Instagram.
The increase in livestreaming during this time provides an opportunity for marketers to leverage their content, as well as actors and directors. Doing so on Facebook and Instagram and other daily apps offers a more personal connection than clean, edited videos.
The new normal – OTT brands beyond COVID-19
My husband and I have a movie night every other week where we are loyal to one dine-in theater. We decided to replicate this during our quarantine as we heard The Hunt was available on Amazon Cinema.
We saw that it was $20 to stream which is similar to how much we would spend for two theater tickets. We had dinner delivered through UberEats, sat down on our couch, and watched the movie. This was a definite change, but one we might do in the future if we can watch new movies right at home.
For OTT brands, direct to home releases could be a norm for them going forward. As such, during this time they should build good partnerships with movie studios while they have the upper hand.
With the world rapidly changing, the world post COVID-19 will be a different one. However, we can be certain that OTT platforms will continue to bring people together with content that everyone can share. And while the Tiger King memes will fall off eventually, there will be plenty of OTT promotion and chatter on social media right around the corner.
Ting Zheng is a social account lead at PMG where she leads channel strategy and execution for some of the world’s biggest B2B, travel, technology and retail brands.
The post OTT in the time of COVID-19: Using social to drive adoption appeared first on ClickZ.
source http://wikimakemoney.com/2020/05/14/ott-in-the-time-of-covid-19-using-social-to-drive-adoption/
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alfredrserrano · 4 years
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Developers are banking on co-living, but will it catch on?
Grove Central
When Pebb Capital principal James Jago attended Tulane University in the early 2000s, he lived in “a dumpy house” with three roommates.
But now, college students increasingly have the option to live off-campus in luxury student housing loaded with amenities like resort-style pools with cabanas, coffee bars, game rooms, movie theaters and fitness centers with yoga and indoor cycling studios. In Miami, near Florida International University and the University of Miami, developers are building high-end housing for affluent students. And when those students depart for the real world, they don’t want to downgrade their living arrangements.
“Students graduating have high expectations,” Jago said.
Therefore, Boca Raton-based Pebb Capital is investing in co-living developments, the grown-up version of dorm living that is taking off in South Florida. Pebb has injected $10 million into Property Markets Group’s 1,200-unit X Las Olas development, currently under construction in Fort Lauderdale, and plans to invest in the firm’s X project at 400 Biscayne Boulevard in downtown Miami.
Jago and other developers are betting on Florida’s growing population of recent graduates and those new to the workforce — specifically, those in the 25-to-35-year-old range — who want to live in the urban cores but can’t afford to pay sky-high rents. In the co-living buildings, renters pay about 20 percent less than they would for a studio apartment, but developers make more by fitting more bedrooms in one unit.
RELATED STORY: WATCH: Developers and co-living operators shed light on the growing industry
Typically housing three to four tenants, co-living units feature bedrooms that are much smaller than those in traditional apartments, but each usually has its own bathroom. 
And to sweeten the deal for tenants, co-living projects offer a slew of amenities. X Miami in downtown Miami boasts a gym, dog park, screening lounge, co-working lab and pool deck that’s known to host frequent pool parties. Cocktail bar Jaguar Sun is located in its lobby.
“What co-living does is it enables the elevation of their standard of living for young professionals. You can lower your monthly [cost] by renting a bedroom. It creates a sense of community,” Jago said.
Brian Koles, director of brand and marketing for Miami X developer PMG, said that while “we build buildings to make money, we firmly believe that it can be a win for everyone.”
PMG is the biggest developer of rent-by-the-bedroom apartment housing in South Florida and was the first to open a large-scale project when it delivered X Miami in 2018. The 32-story, 464-unit tower is now 97 percent leased.
Only 20 percent of PMG’s co-living projects — the three- and four-bedroom units — are actually reserved for co-living, Koles said. That allows renters to “graduate” from leasing bedrooms to their own units as they get promotions or move in with significant others.
Now that X Miami has been up and running for over a year, PMG is launching a division to expand across the country. The venture, called Society, includes X Las Olas, 400 Biscayne, a Wynwood project, one in Phoenix and another in Orlando. All five buildings will be branded Society. (See sidebar.)
But Koles and PMG will soon have some competition from another local developer who sees similar opportunities in the micro-apartment format. Miami-based Terra Group and Grass River Property, currently developing 401-unit Grove Central, inked a deal to bring in national co-living startup Common to manage a portion of the project — 22 units with 106 bedrooms.
“Co-living is supposed to garner more revenue in less space but at the same time deliver an affordable rent that is below the AMI [area median income] of a neighborhood,” said Terra Group president David Martin.
Co-living also allows multifamily developers to differentiate themselves from the competition, said Luis Flores, an attorney at Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr whose clients include PMG.
Even Richard Branson, who’s known to look into the future for his next big idea, will brand a Virgin hotel and residential tower with 150 furnished micro and co-living rental units, which will start at under 400 square feet. Scheduled for a 2023 delivery, the Brickell project is expected to break ground in 2020.
Startups surge
The affordability crisis nationwide and in Miami specifically creates an opportunity for builders and startup operators of co-living, who have been flocking to the region. According to an exclusive report from the Miami Herald, an October 2019 study by Florida International University’s Jorge M. Pérez Metropolitan Center found that more than half of cost-burdened renters — households that spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent — are spending more than 50 percent of their paychecks on rent.
Common Coliving Melrose
Startups like Common and Ollie are eager to swoop in with solutions. The two co-living operators have expanded throughout the U.S. and are now signing local long-term lease deals with apartment landlords and developers.
“You have a lot of supply that’s really geared toward luxury renters. It’s clear that there is really a need for affordable housing,” said Brian Lee, senior director of real estate at Common.
New York-based Ollie, which has raised $15 million, will manage 400 beds in one of three buildings at Gables Station, NP International’s mixed-use project in Coral Gables. Life Time Fitness is opening at the development, which will include about 120,000 square feet of retail space. (Read more about the project on page 46.)
Led by founder and CEO Brad Hargreaves, Common rents out rooms in furnished, shared apartments on flexible lease terms in 32 locations in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle and Washington, D.C. It signs leases for ground-up new developments and will also work with owners of existing buildings to convert larger two-bedroom units into three-bedrooms, and so on.
It then leases out bedrooms for rents that are 15 to 20 percent below what a studio in the same neighborhood is being marketed for. Rents in Miami will start at about $1,000 a month, Lee said. Common uses technology that generates leads, matches roommates and schedules tours.
The company sells annual memberships to residents who can transfer between properties if they’re moving to another city with Common locations. It has more than 1,000 members, according to a spokesperson.
In October, Common investor Six Peak Capital announced it had hired Cushman & Wakefield to raise $1 billion in debt and equity to fund its expansion of co-living in the U.S. Common has raised over $65 million since it was founded in 2015, from investors that include Norwest, Maveron, 8VC and LeFrak.
Common has yet to open a location in Miami, but it has about 800 bedrooms in the local pipeline. It’s also negotiating deals for roughly 2,500 bedrooms throughout South Florida.
The startup’s first location will open in late 2020 or early 2021 in a cluster of homes in Little Havana that will total 130 bedrooms.
At Terra and Grass River Property’s Grove Central, where Common is leasing a small portion of the apartment component, workforce housing apartments and retail space are also part of the mix. The development features easy access to the Coconut Grove Metrorail station.
Construction at Grove Central is expected to go vertical in the second quarter of next year. Martin said the developers worked with Common to design the units with smart kitchens, shoe and shirt storage, suites for couples, efficient bathrooms and “as much community space as possible.”
The project will have theaters, gyms, lounges, co-working space and coffee shops in addition to the retail space that’s already planned.
‘Urbin’ infill
Though it’s more common in European markets, co-living is still a fairly new asset class in the U.S., so Terra said it is testing the market by leasing only 10 to 15 percent of the units to Common. Cities also have different caps on how many unrelated families can live in one housing unit, or do not allow co-living at all.
“It’s a test, but it’s also what I think works,” Martin said. “Traditional apartments have a certain cap rate. For co-living, there has not been that much trading. We don’t really understand how the capital markets are going to treat it.”
Martin is also an investor in Urbin, a co-living, co-working and wellness real estate platform led by developer Rishi Kapoor, the CEO of Miami-based Location Ventures. The company is moving forward with a co-living project at 1234 to 1260 Washington Avenue in Miami Beach after the City Commission there passed legislation allowing co-living in November 2019.
Urbin has raised $85 million in funding from the Murphy family of Coastal Construction, former NFL player Jonathan Vilma, Rudy Touzet of Banyan Street Capital and others. At least three locations are in the pipeline for South Florida, and Kapoor said he hopes to open 100 locations in the coming decade.
Mitash Kripalani, director of investment services at Colliers International South Florida, is listing the 61-bedroom building at 800 South Dixie Highway for sale. Location Ventures took it over two and a half years ago, renovated it and put an ad up on Craigslist to rent out the bedrooms, geared toward attracting students from the University of Miami. Kapoor said he used the building as a model for Urbin.
Co-living projects are in some cases getting “higher rents than Class A product in Brickell” because developers are able to rent a bedroom out for $1,300 a piece, according to Kripalani.
“Some people say it’s a fad,” Kripalani said. “But I think as rents grow, if you’re a young millennial and you want to live downtown for [$1,300] a month, your best option is co-living.”
The post Developers are banking on co-living, but will it catch on? appeared first on The Real Deal Miami.
from The Real Deal Miami https://therealdeal.com/miami/2020/02/17/developers-are-banking-on-co-living-but-will-it-catch-on-2/ via IFTTT
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walterfrodriguez · 4 years
Text
Developers are banking on co-living, but will it catch on?
Grove Central
When Pebb Capital principal James Jago attended Tulane University in the early 2000s, he lived in “a dumpy house” with three roommates.
But now, college students increasingly have the option to live off-campus in luxury student housing loaded with amenities like resort-style pools with cabanas, coffee bars, game rooms, movie theaters and fitness centers with yoga and indoor cycling studios. In Miami, near Florida International University and the University of Miami, developers are building high-end housing for affluent students. And when those students depart for the real world, they don’t want to downgrade their living arrangements.
“Students graduating have high expectations,” Jago said.
Therefore, Boca Raton-based Pebb Capital is investing in co-living developments, the grown-up version of dorm living that is taking off in South Florida. Pebb has injected $10 million into Property Markets Group’s 1,200-unit X Las Olas development, currently under construction in Fort Lauderdale, and plans to invest in the firm’s X project at 400 Biscayne Boulevard in downtown Miami.
Jago and other developers are betting on Florida’s growing population of recent graduates and those new to the workforce — specifically, those in the 25-to-35-year-old range — who want to live in the urban cores but can’t afford to pay sky-high rents. In the co-living buildings, renters pay about 20 percent less than they would for a studio apartment, but developers make more by fitting more bedrooms in one unit.
RELATED STORY: WATCH: Developers and co-living operators shed light on the growing industry
Typically housing three to four tenants, co-living units feature bedrooms that are much smaller than those in traditional apartments, but each usually has its own bathroom. 
And to sweeten the deal for tenants, co-living projects offer a slew of amenities. X Miami in downtown Miami boasts a gym, dog park, screening lounge, co-working lab and pool deck that’s known to host frequent pool parties. Cocktail bar Jaguar Sun is located in its lobby.
“What co-living does is it enables the elevation of their standard of living for young professionals. You can lower your monthly [cost] by renting a bedroom. It creates a sense of community,” Jago said.
Brian Koles, director of brand and marketing for Miami X developer PMG, said that while “we build buildings to make money, we firmly believe that it can be a win for everyone.”
PMG is the biggest developer of rent-by-the-bedroom apartment housing in South Florida and was the first to open a large-scale project when it delivered X Miami in 2018. The 32-story, 464-unit tower is now 97 percent leased.
Only 20 percent of PMG’s co-living projects — the three- and four-bedroom units — are actually reserved for co-living, Koles said. That allows renters to “graduate” from leasing bedrooms to their own units as they get promotions or move in with significant others.
Now that X Miami has been up and running for over a year, PMG is launching a division to expand across the country. The venture, called Society, includes X Las Olas, 400 Biscayne, a Wynwood project, one in Phoenix and another in Orlando. All five buildings will be branded Society. (See sidebar.)
But Koles and PMG will soon have some competition from another local developer who sees similar opportunities in the micro-apartment format. Miami-based Terra Group and Grass River Property, currently developing 401-unit Grove Central, inked a deal to bring in national co-living startup Common to manage a portion of the project — 22 units with 106 bedrooms.
“Co-living is supposed to garner more revenue in less space but at the same time deliver an affordable rent that is below the AMI [area median income] of a neighborhood,” said Terra Group president David Martin.
Co-living also allows multifamily developers to differentiate themselves from the competition, said Luis Flores, an attorney at Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr whose clients include PMG.
Even Richard Branson, who’s known to look into the future for his next big idea, will brand a Virgin hotel and residential tower with 150 furnished micro and co-living rental units, which will start at under 400 square feet. Scheduled for a 2023 delivery, the Brickell project is expected to break ground in 2020.
Startups surge
The affordability crisis nationwide and in Miami specifically creates an opportunity for builders and startup operators of co-living, who have been flocking to the region. According to an exclusive report from the Miami Herald, an October 2019 study by Florida International University’s Jorge M. Pérez Metropolitan Center found that more than half of cost-burdened renters — households that spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent — are spending more than 50 percent of their paychecks on rent.
Common Coliving Melrose
Startups like Common and Ollie are eager to swoop in with solutions. The two co-living operators have expanded throughout the U.S. and are now signing local long-term lease deals with apartment landlords and developers.
“You have a lot of supply that’s really geared toward luxury renters. It’s clear that there is really a need for affordable housing,” said Brian Lee, senior director of real estate at Common.
New York-based Ollie, which has raised $15 million, will manage 400 beds in one of three buildings at Gables Station, NP International’s mixed-use project in Coral Gables. Life Time Fitness is opening at the development, which will include about 120,000 square feet of retail space. (Read more about the project on page 46.)
Led by founder and CEO Brad Hargreaves, Common rents out rooms in furnished, shared apartments on flexible lease terms in 32 locations in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle and Washington, D.C. It signs leases for ground-up new developments and will also work with owners of existing buildings to convert larger two-bedroom units into three-bedrooms, and so on.
It then leases out bedrooms for rents that are 15 to 20 percent below what a studio in the same neighborhood is being marketed for. Rents in Miami will start at about $1,000 a month, Lee said. Common uses technology that generates leads, matches roommates and schedules tours.
The company sells annual memberships to residents who can transfer between properties if they’re moving to another city with Common locations. It has more than 1,000 members, according to a spokesperson.
In October, Common investor Six Peak Capital announced it had hired Cushman & Wakefield to raise $1 billion in debt and equity to fund its expansion of co-living in the U.S. Common has raised over $65 million since it was founded in 2015, from investors that include Norwest, Maveron, 8VC and LeFrak.
Common has yet to open a location in Miami, but it has about 800 bedrooms in the local pipeline. It’s also negotiating deals for roughly 2,500 bedrooms throughout South Florida.
The startup’s first location will open in late 2020 or early 2021 in a cluster of homes in Little Havana that will total 130 bedrooms.
At Terra and Grass River Property’s Grove Central, where Common is leasing a small portion of the apartment component, workforce housing apartments and retail space are also part of the mix. The development features easy access to the Coconut Grove Metrorail station.
Construction at Grove Central is expected to go vertical in the second quarter of next year. Martin said the developers worked with Common to design the units with smart kitchens, shoe and shirt storage, suites for couples, efficient bathrooms and “as much community space as possible.”
The project will have theaters, gyms, lounges, co-working space and coffee shops in addition to the retail space that’s already planned.
‘Urbin’ infill
Though it’s more common in European markets, co-living is still a fairly new asset class in the U.S., so Terra said it is testing the market by leasing only 10 to 15 percent of the units to Common. Cities also have different caps on how many unrelated families can live in one housing unit, or do not allow co-living at all.
“It’s a test, but it’s also what I think works,” Martin said. “Traditional apartments have a certain cap rate. For co-living, there has not been that much trading. We don’t really understand how the capital markets are going to treat it.”
Martin is also an investor in Urbin, a co-living, co-working and wellness real estate platform led by developer Rishi Kapoor, the CEO of Miami-based Location Ventures. The company is moving forward with a co-living project at 1234 to 1260 Washington Avenue in Miami Beach after the City Commission there passed legislation allowing co-living in November 2019.
Urbin has raised $85 million in funding from the Murphy family of Coastal Construction, former NFL player Jonathan Vilma, Rudy Touzet of Banyan Street Capital and others. At least three locations are in the pipeline for South Florida, and Kapoor said he hopes to open 100 locations in the coming decade.
Mitash Kripalani, director of investment services at Colliers International South Florida, is listing the 61-bedroom building at 800 South Dixie Highway for sale. Location Ventures took it over two and a half years ago, renovated it and put an ad up on Craigslist to rent out the bedrooms, geared toward attracting students from the University of Miami. Kapoor said he used the building as a model for Urbin.
Co-living projects are in some cases getting “higher rents than Class A product in Brickell” because developers are able to rent a bedroom out for $1,300 a piece, according to Kripalani.
“Some people say it’s a fad,” Kripalani said. “But I think as rents grow, if you’re a young millennial and you want to live downtown for [$1,300] a month, your best option is co-living.”
The post Developers are banking on co-living, but will it catch on? appeared first on The Real Deal Miami.
from The Real Deal Miami & Miami Florida Real Estate & Housing News | & Curbed Miami - All https://therealdeal.com/miami/2020/01/09/developers-are-banking-on-co-living-but-will-it-catch-on/ via IFTTT
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phgq · 5 years
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Plight of persons with myasthenia gravis
#PHnews: Plight of persons with myasthenia gravis
MANILA -- Weakness of the whole body and drooping eyes prodded Marivic Joy Franco eight years ago to consult a health expert at the Philippine General Hospital.
“Dati nakakapanahi pa ako ng mga costumes at madali ako makatapos pero nakaramdam ako ng panghihina lalo na kapag mainit kaya naisip ko magpatingin at nalaman ko na may myasthenia gravis (MG) ako (I use to easily sew costumes but one time felt weakness particularly when the weather is hot, so I decided to have a check-up and found out that I have myasthenia gravis) ,” Franco told the Philippine News Agency (PNA) in an interview.
According to the United States National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, MG is a chronic autoimmune neuromascular disease that causes weakness in the skeletal muscles.
Its symptoms include difficulty in breathing, swallowing, talking, climbing, jumping, and lifting things. It also results in having hoarse voice, drooping eyelids, double vision, fatigue, and facial paralysis.
The disease affects both men and women, but more on women under 40 years old worldwide.
“Sabi sa amin ng doctor, mga neurologists, stress talaga ang trigger ng sakit namin. May kwento na ang unang nagkaroon ng MG ay mga (The doctors told us, the neurologists, that stress triggers the disease. There’s even a story that the first people who acquired MG are the) OFWs (overseas Filipino workers) probably because of stress, and MG is non-curable until now according to research,” added Maria Victoria Yap, another person with MG.
Apart from MG, Yap suffers from hypothyroidism. She finds it difficult to breathe and speak clearly after talking or chatting continuously for about an hour.
“Napapagod din kami kapag salita nang salita. May mga iba sa amin na pumapayat din dahil hindi nahihirapan makalunok, makakain ganun (We easily get tired talking. Some of us lose weight due to difficulty in swallowing. Eating becomes a challenge),” she added.
Relation with other auto-immune diseases
Maribeth Portes, a single mother with MG, said they get easily infected and are prone to having another immune disease.
“Lagi po kami nagsusuot ng mask kasi madali kami mahawaan ng ubo, sipon. Mayroon din po akong antiphospholipid syndrome [APAS], madali po lumapot ang dugo ko kaya umiiwas ako sa green leafy vegetables. (We always wear masks because we easily get coughs, colds. I also have antiphospholipid syndrome, my blood gets thick so I avoid eating green leafy vegetables),” Portes said.
“Ang tinitira po sa amin ng MG ay ang diaphragm namin kaya mahalaga na madala kami sa ospital na may intensive care unit (ICU) para maisaayos ang aming paghinga kung hindi madali kami mamatay (MG attacks our diaphragm so it is important for us to be immediately brought to hospitals with intensive care unit so that we will not die from difficulty in breathing),” she added.
Treatment, medicines
Portes shared that Mestinon (pyridostigmine) is the main medication for persons with myasthenia gravis (PMGs).
“We take it five to six times in a day pero may isang member kami na sobrang mahina kaya 20 tablets a day. Lumalakas kami kapag nakakainom ng gamot, then, we're able to move and walk with ease (We take our medicine five to six times a day. But we have one member who takes 20 tablets a day because he’s so weak. We get stronger when we take the medicine then we're able to move and walk with ease),” she said.
However, the medicine gives them strength for four to six hours only.
“Para po kaming cellphone na madaling ma-low battery, at ilang beses dapat uminom ng gamot, kaya nasasabi namin minsan na ang sakit namin ay sakit ng mayaman (We’re like cellular phones with batteries that get drained easily, and we need to take medicines several times, that’s why we sometimes say that this disease is for the rich),“ Teresita Alcantara, another PMG, said.
Alcantara added that they are also given steroids to help them relax and have appetite to eat.
“In moderation po ang steroids kasi pwede kami naman magkaroon pa ng isa pang sakit gaya ng diabetes (We take steroids in moderation because we can acquire another disease like diabetes),” she said.
The United States National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke reported that removal of the thymus gland or thymectomy, an important part of the immune system in infancy and early childhood, is deemed the most effective treatment for MG since the 1940’s.
“Thymectomy with most patients, has produced improvement after 6 months to one year following surgery,” the institute said.
In her desire to overcome MG, Maria Fe Mabini underwent thymectomy on October 30, 2018.
“Sa Lung Center kay Doktora Galvez ako nagpagawa kasi gusto kong lumakas. Laser lang kaya wala akong naramdaman at lumakas naman ako pero hindi po nagbago ang mga mata ko, still drooping (I had surgery at the Lung Center under Doctor Galvez because I want to regain my strength. It was laser surgery so I didn’t feel any pain and I became stronger, but my drooping eyes didn’t change),” Mabini said.
Meanwhile, Yap shared that most neurologists advise them to keep healthy and avoid stress at all costs.
“Mayroon kami isang member na nagta-trabaho sa call center na bumalik sa paninigarilyo at ibang bisyo pagkatapos ng surgery kaya nanghina rin siya (We have one member who works in a call center, who became weak after surgery because he went back to smoking and other vices),” she said.
Duterte bares having MG
Last October 5, President Rodrigo Duterte revealed that he has MG during a speaking engagement in front of a Filipino community in Moscow, Russia.
"It’s a nerve malfunction. I got it from my grandfather. He also had that. So, I believe really in genetics. What he had, I got,” Duterte said.
Portes, who has lived in Davao for a long time, feels pity over Duterte’s revelation.
“Mahirap talaga magkaroon ng MG, kung puwede nga lang akuin ang sakit niya, kasi mas marami siyang kinakaharap na stress bilang presidente natin. Nalungkot talaga kami kasi bilang may MG nauunawaan namin ang kalagayan niya (It’s really difficult to have MG, if I can only get the disease from him, because he encounters a lot of stress as our president. We were really saddened by the news since we have MG, we understand his situation),” she said.
On her part, Alcantara appealed to President Duterte not to pay attention to haters to avoid stress and get appropriate treatment despite his busy schedule.
“Kapit lang po kayo, President. Nandito kami na mga ka-MG ninyo na nagdadasal para sa inyo (You can do it, President. We’re here, your fellow PMGs who are praying for you),” she said.
In a media forum on October 9, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said that Duterte is "quite fit" for the job despite having MG, adding that he is able to handle well the "most difficult job on earth" at 74 years old.
"He is okay. He is able to do many things that media practitioners are not able to follow. He is going to visit wakes, visit soldiers and policemen in hospitals in different parts of the country,” Duque said.
Myasthenia Gravis Samahang Pilipino
The Myasthenia Gravis Samahang Pilipino (MGSP) is a non-profit and non-government organization established to reach out and help all PMGs in the country. It also aims to spread awareness about this rare auto-immune disease which potentially disables its victims
"Through advocacy, early detection and appropriate intervention, medical research, sustainable livelihood programs and other services we want to improve the lives of our fellow PMGs. To create a compassionate community, para malaman nilang hindi sila nag-iisa (So they will know that they are not alone) so they will feel empowered to live life to the fullest," Portes said.
"To date, we have estimated 500 PMGs nationwide according to our engagements in social media and to the number of people who contact our group from all parts of the country. Around 275 are listed and only 80 are active group members," she added.
Citing that studies on MG and its treatment are scarce in the country, Yap pleaded to the government officials to look into the situation of PMGs and help them acquire better health services.
"Sana magkaroon ng awareness, hindi biro ang may MG para malaman ng mga tao na kung may symptoms sila kailangan nila ng blood test, MRI, citi scan, antibodies test na magastos (We hope there will be an awareness, it's difficult to have MG. So if people have the symptoms they need blood test, MRI, CT scan, antibodies test which are expensive)," she said. (PNA)
***
References:
* Philippine News Agency. "Plight of persons with myasthenia gravis." Philippine News Agency. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1083498 (accessed October 18, 2019 at 09:51PM UTC+14).
* Philippine News Agency. "Plight of persons with myasthenia gravis." Archive Today. https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1083498 (archived).
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thisdaynews · 5 years
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Rebuilding Paradise: Finding health care after wildfire destruction
New Post has been published on https://thebiafrastar.com/rebuilding-paradise-finding-health-care-after-wildfire-destruction/
Rebuilding Paradise: Finding health care after wildfire destruction
Rescue workers search the Paradise Gardens apartments for victims of the Camp Fire on Nov. 16, 2018 in Paradise, Calif. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
health care
California town leveled by fire has chance to rethink, not just rebuild.
PARADISE, Calif.—This Northern California town, decimated by wildfires, is trying to rebuild a health care system in a place that no longer exists for a future that’s impossible to predict.
Paradise is little more than a large charred debris removal site — and it lost its hospital, several clinics, its nursing homes, its doctors in the fire last year. Without health care, Paradise, a remote town 90 miles from Sacramento nestled into the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, has no chance of coming back.
Story Continued Below
Recovery may also provide opportunity. Paradise is trying to piece together a new, more flexible health care system, relying on new partnerships and better technology, including telemedicine. If it works, Paradise could become a template for how to deliver health care to rural America, not just those communities hit by disaster, but areas that have seen hospitals close and the numbers of doctors dwindle.
“They have the really unique perspective right now to create something based on need that can grow in the community as it looks toward the future,” said Brock Slabach, senior vice president with the National Rural Health Association.
A $19 billion federal disaster assistance bill, long delayed in Congress because of disputes between President Trump and the Democrats, may finally be approved in the coming week. California stands to get up to $12.6 billion, and some of that money will come here to Paradise, where the Camp Fire, the biggest and most destructive fire in state history, killed 85 people and destroyed 14,000 homes when it struck six months ago.
The new vision for health care here builds on primary care based in the community, with telemedicine access to specialists. Whether the town will have a hospital of its own — or just an emergency facility, at least for the next few years — is an unresolved question.
Adventist Health hasn’t decided whether to rebuild or reopen Paradise’s only hospital, which was severely damaged though it didn’t burn to the ground. Physicians have left because they have no place to practice or live. Patients have fled to makeshift homes with friends or relatives, uncertain whether to return.
The rebuilding task for the city is monumental, and health care has to be at its heart.
“I don’t think there is a similar instance in the United States where a community has been essentially completely destroyed and had to rebuild,” said Richard Thorp, a physician and president of the Paradise Medical Group, which served about 10,000 patients at three clinics in what was once a serene rural community.
Paradise has one of the worst cleanup jobs since 9/11, but signs of recovery are starting to appear. Thorp’s medical group has started seeing patients at its one surviving clinic. On the other side of town, Adventist’s Feather River Health Center, a federally designated rural health clinic that treats Medicaid patients, reopened in late December.
“Every time there’s a ribbon-cutting around here, there’s a little more confidence,” said U.S. Rep. Doug LaMalfa who was on hand for the clinic’s official re-opening last week. He was the only California Republican to defy Trump and vote for the Democrats’ aid package.
While the federal money stalled, state officials tried to step in. The California Legislature is considering a bill designed to help Paradise reclaim some of its emergency medical services. For instance, while Adventist Feather River, the 101-bed hospital, sustained too much damage to stay open, its ER survived.California law doesn’t allow freestanding emergency departments, so a bill would let Adventist Health operate the ER for up to six years under a consolidated license with another Adventist hospital 50 miles away.
“They’ve just got to have something somewhere,” said the bill’s author, Republican state Sen. Jim Nielsen, whose district includes parts of the fire area. “Our biggest challenge since the fire has been to inspire confidence in the citizens to rebuild and come back.”
Adventist Health supports the bill but hasn’t made any decisions yet on its future footprint. “We are anxious to provide access as much as we possibly can in a quick time frame, but it’s hard to do that,” said Jill Kinney, the hospital’s spokesperson.
Building a hospital is a complex, multiyear process under the best of circumstances, Kinney said. “Right now, some of our challenges are we don’t know where the population is going to end up,” she said. “Are they going to rebuild? Are they coming back? It’s really hard to tell what the community will look like.”
Rigid federal regulations has made it hard for rural communities to rebuild health facilities after disasters, says Slabach. Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) offered a bill that would allow Medicare to reimburse a new kind of rural clinic-hospital hybrid. But it hasn’t gotten traction in Congress.
Paradise’s Feather River hospital didn’t qualify as a “critical access” hospital — a designation that offers rural hospitals higher Medicare rates — and won’t qualify as one without a legislative fix or waiver, because of its size and proximity tohospitals in Chico and Oroville, respectively 16 and 21 miles away.
And changes in medicine — a new emphasis on primary and community based care, less on acute care hospital settings — means Paradise is rethinking its needs. Slabach, of the rural health association, said post-disaster communities need flexible options. Many of them “really don’t want or need inpatient capacity because the population no longer supports it,” he said.
But while some people could get to Chico or Oroville with relative ease, it’s harder for elderly residents who lived in Paradise. The topography — on a wide ridge surrounded by deep canyons — makes it even more remote.
In the immediate aftermath of the fire, doctors worked out of Chico’s Enloe Medical Center and clinics. With the reopening of the Paradise Medical Group clinic, the practice also unveiled “PMG Connect,” a virtual care platform supported by Teladoc. Blue Shield of California gave the medical group $2 million to help pay for the technology, while covering 90 days of payroll and other expenses.
The technology allows patients to connect virtually with their doctors online and through mobile apps. The group is starting to experiment with home-based care and remote patient monitoring. The hospital’s closure has limited Paradise’s health capacity to primary care, increasing the need to access outside specialists.
If the hospital rebuilds, it will undoubtedly do so with a smaller footprint, one that reflects the overall trend of shifting care to outpatient settings.
Dustin Corcoran,CEO of the California Medical Association, said Paradise’s rebuild from the ground up offers it the opportunity to be the “most technologically advanced, the most forward-facing medical group in the entire state of California.”
The medical group already had a strong technological foothold; a new cloud-based EHR system retained the last three years of patient records, and the group’s quick-thinking technology manager managed to save the hard drives containing earlier patient history from a basement before the clinic burned to the ground.
Problems like recruiting physicians and providing specialty care services “were always an issue pre-fire,” Corcoran said. “Now it’s a greater issue. But now they have the technological capacity and that’s quite an asset to the community as it rebuilds.”
“As we restore Paradise, the medical group and its services, it probably won’t be the same as it was before,” said Bradford Ogden, 65 and a longtime resident and patient. “It will be different. It might be better.”
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juditmiltz · 5 years
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Plotting the future of Miami’s skyline
The Towers by Foster + Partners
With more than four years’ supply of luxury condos for sale, it’s plain to most people in the real estate community that the market does not need any more condo projects. Developers have no choice but to hope their existing projects inch closer to selling out while they toil away on plans designed for a better market in the future. Many are now plotting the next batch of supertall towers to grace Miami’s skyline by hiring top architects and attorneys, surveying industry leaders on their plans and assembling their sales and marketing teams, insiders told The Real Deal. They just have to wait out the cycle’s end before they launch.
In one example, Carlos Ott — a Uruguayan architect who worked on Echo Brickell, Jade Beach and Jade Ocean — has been hired along with Miami-based Sieger Suarez Architects to design a luxury condo tower at 300 Biscayne Boulevard, Property Markets Group (PMG) principal Ryan Shear said.
The skyscraper, designed as a stack of glass cubes, would be the tallest in Miami at 1,049 feet, renderings show. Plans for the property, which the company acquired for $80 million in 2014, include a 94-story condominium with 640 units and a luxury hotel with a wellness-focused spa. 
The project could be ready to launch in as little as two months, according to Shear — but that’s not happening. “We need a good cycle to launch projects like that. The worst thing in my opinion you could do is try to swim upstream,” Shear said, adding that he expects developers to start launching new developments again by 2019 or 2020.
The development is one of many scattered throughout Miami that won’t make it in this real estate cycle, but is poised to change the city’s landscape during the next one.
Another such project is The Towers by Foster + Partners, a pair of connected high rises planned for 1201 Brickell Bay Drive, about a mile south of 300 Biscayne, just over the Brickell Bridge. The developers — Florida East Coast Realty, Corigin Real Estate Group and McCourt Global Properties — met with top brokers last year seeking feedback on the plans, which now call for 660 residential units.
Sources say the waterfront development will be built as condos, but a launch date hasn’t been determined.
The Related Group, too, is expected to relaunch at least two large-scale condo projects in Miami during the next cycle: 444 Brickell Avenue and 1400 Biscayne Boulevard. Both are luxury condos that will be built in three phases. The only certainty regarding a launch date for either project is that now is not the time.
“We are looking for signs. Right now it’s not the right time to launch,” Carlos Rosso, president of the condominium division, said.
Slow sales led the developer to cancel its Auberge Residences & Spa Miami project planned for the site at 1400 Biscayne — shutting down the 290-unit tower’s sales center and returning buyers’ deposits by early 2017 — less than a year after launching. That cancellation in particular was a key indicator that the market had reached a critical point in the cycle, insiders said.
Devil-may-care developers
While some are waiting to start projects two to three years in the future, there are a handful of others fearlessly forging ahead today — though it should be noted that in those cases, ample coffers certainly helped. In March, two new projects launched sales. OKO Group, led by Vlad Doronin, began sales for Una, a 47-story, 135-unit luxury condo tower at 175 Southeast 25th Road, with an architect and sales team in place. The developer, who has the financial backing to move forward, is planning to complete the building by 2021. That’s when some say the next cycle will begin.
Over on Fisher Island, developer Heinrich von Hanau just launched sales for a project he already started building. Palazzo Della Luna, a 10-story, 50-unit building, is expected to open next summer. 
Some of the most high-profile projects where sales and construction are underway may continue to sell and build into the next cycle — a costly move that could pay off if their completions are timed correctly. They include One River Point along the Miami River and the Estates at Acqualina in Sunny Isles Beach.
KAR Properties’ Shahab Karmely launched One River Point, a twin-tower, 60-story, 386-unit luxury condo development connected by a “Sky Club,” in 2015 — at the same time that the Estates at Acqualina launched. Sales have been slow at One River Point, which also faces challenges by having a not-so-concrete timeline. “Our sales are chugging along,” Karmely said. But “they’re not as strong as I would like them to be.”
Jay Parker, CEO of Douglas Elliman Florida, acknowledged that the lack of a timeline is “a very significant concern” among buyers. “People want to know how long it’s going to take. That’s why you see a lot of developers taking a lot of risk,” he added.
Site work at One River Point is now underway, and the developer expects to pour the foundation by the end of 2018. Despite launching later in the cycle, Karmely, too, has deep pockets he can rely on. His silent partner is Daniel Loeb, the billionaire investor who runs Third Point, one of the world’s most prominent activist hedge funds.
“You can only wait so long before you say, ‘Oh, shit. I waited too long.’ In life, you’ve got to jump in and swim,” Karmely said.
Others are making conservative moves aimed at mitigating any potential losses.
Palazzo Della Luna by Heinrich von Hanau
“The best approach a developer could take is [to] look back at history,” said Peter Zalewski, founder of CraneSpotters and Condo Vultures Realty, databases that track the preconstruction condo market and distressed opportunities, respectively. He pointed to the St. Regis Bal Harbour as an example of a profitable slow-and-steady approach. “They built very slowly and were able to deliver right as the market was returning.”
At Brickell City Centre, Swire Properties still has about 150 unsold condos at Reach and Rise and won’t launch sales for phase two until those units are sold.
Nevertheless, Swire is preparing for the second phase, which is slated to be a vertically stacked equivalent of phase one. The development firm also recently announced a partnership with Colombian businessman Carlos Mattos to build a residential project on a site immediately north and west of Brickell City Centre. Development marketers are eager to bid on the new business.
Securing new sites
As a cycle is ending, developers typically focus on looking for land they can develop in the next cycle while getting approvals for plans on the sites they already own. But, given the specifics of today’s market, there are a few flaws in that plan.
Inigo Ardid, co-president of Key International, said land prices are still too high for such moves. “The value of land is how much you can build on it. If the market’s not there, it should get a corresponding discount,” he said. “Right now, it’s not.”
Ardid — whose company recently delivered the 389-unit 1010 Brickell and will soon complete The Harbour, a 425-unit project in North Miami Beach — is looking to buy land, “but it’s going to take a little bit of time for the market to come back. People have to price land correctly,” he said.
PMG recently closed on a site at 400 Biscayne Boulevard, where the developer will build apartments and condos. That deal, a $55 million purchase, was about two years in the making. “Pricing is tough right now,” PMG’s Shear said, adding that there’s a big gap between sellers’ perceptions and the reality of today’s market.
Shear points to a 26,600-square-foot development site at 200 Southwest Eighth Street in Brickell as an example. The corner property recently hit the market for about $19.4 million. It could be built into a 122-unit residential tower or a 244-key hotel, plus retail, according to Alfonso Jaramillo of Fortune International Realty, who is marketing the property. PMG looked at the site, but Shear said it was too expensive.
Prospecting continues nonetheless. Related has a couple of sites it’s eyeing for development, Rosso said, declining to identify where they’re located. Louis Birdman of One Thousand Museum said he and his partners own a site in Broward County that they’re considering for a project, but he did not disclose more information. 
“If I were developing in Miami, I would think long and hard about launching now,” said Elliman’s Parker.
A cloudy ending to the cycle
The end of the cycle isn’t such a terrible place to be today  compared to the crash-and-burn ending in 2008. Some hard-earned lessons from that time ensured that today, fewer buyers have walked away from their units — the 50 percent deposit structure is largely responsible for that — and fewer projects have been canceled.
Inigo Ardid
Shear believes the cycle ended a year ago, when sales slowed dramatically in South Florida. But now, he said, “we’re in a gap period, closer to the next cycle than we are to the end of this cycle.”
He’ll begin closings at Muse Residences in April with more than 80 percent sold. The luxury condo tower in Sunny Isles Beach has about 12 remaining units from a total of 64, he said. But last year, PMG sold only eight units at Muse. Most sold in 2015, when pre-construction condo sales in Miami peaked.
Pricing hit a high in 2016, which certainly didn’t help with sales, brokers said. While developers are hoping 2017 was the worst of it, that’s probably not the case. Once construction is for the most part over, developers will be stuck with unsold inventory and the carrying costs that come with those units. Buyers (including a number of investors) will also try to flip their units, flooding the market with even more inventory, Zalewski said.
“When the last crane comes down, that’s when the game is on because the clock is ticking,” he added. 
Related, which took the number one spot in TRD’s 2017 ranking of top South Florida condo developers, is delivering nine condo buildings this year and another four next year. Most, including Hyde Midtown, SLS Lux and the Paraiso complex in Edgewater, are nearly sold out, the company said.
Timing the market
If developers are getting their next-cycle plans together now, the question is, when should they pounce?
Before a new cycle begins, a few things have to happen. Rents will fall thanks to an oversupply of condos on the rental market. Resale inventory needs to decline — quickly — so that demand and prices will rise. 
“This is a hard market to predict. I don’t think anyone in their right mind thought the market was going to come back as strong as it did as long as it did,” Ardid said.
International Sales Group tracks pre-construction sales of projects east of I-95 in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, and found that of all the new inventory put on the market since 2012, 83 percent has been sold or pre-sold. ISG principal Craig Studnicky is especially optimistic, predicting that most of the remaining inventory will be absorbed this year, giving birth to the next cycle.
However, his prediction seems extremely unlikely, if not impossible — a recent report found that Miami-Dade has four years of existing luxury condo inventory. And a CraneSpotters analysis of new condo sales finds that there’s more than six years’ of supply in downtown Miami. In the county, nearly 2,800 units asking at least $1 million are on the market, according to Condo Vultures Realty. In 2017, 681 luxury units sold in the county, meaning an absorption rate of about 57 units a month, according to the Condo Vultures report. That’s not including the pipeline of new development.
“This is really like what 2011 was. It was pretty obvious we were nearing the end of selling the remaining inventory from the financial crisis of 2008, 2009,” Studnicky said.
KAR Properties’ Karmely doesn’t believe the market will come back as strong as it did at the start of this cycle. “Do I think it’s going to take longer for projects launched in the last two years to sell out? Yes, of course,” he said.
Once the demand is back and developers determine that they can sell new construction at a roughly 35 percent premium, they’ll launch new projects, he said.
Zalewski, who recently joined a private equity firm, Brickell Ventures, which is focused on buying bulk condo deals at discounts, expects the next cycle won’t begin until late 2021 or 2022. 
Everyone — developers, brokers and agents — are still optimistic, hoping the market will turn around, he added.
At the same time, they’re getting their approvals and teams in place to be in the right position “once we get out of the correction,” Zalewski said, referring to projects like Magic City and Design Place in Little Haiti. “They’re in early for the next cycle but way too late for this cycle.”
from The Real Deal Miami https://therealdeal.com/miami/issues_articles/plotting-the-future-of-miamis-skyline/#new_tab via IFTTT
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nicolesrollins · 5 years
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Plotting the future of Miami’s skyline
The Towers by Foster + Partners
With more than four years’ supply of luxury condos for sale, it’s plain to most people in the real estate community that the market does not need any more condo projects. Developers have no choice but to hope their existing projects inch closer to selling out while they toil away on plans designed for a better market in the future. Many are now plotting the next batch of supertall towers to grace Miami’s skyline by hiring top architects and attorneys, surveying industry leaders on their plans and assembling their sales and marketing teams, insiders told The Real Deal. They just have to wait out the cycle’s end before they launch.
In one example, Carlos Ott — a Uruguayan architect who worked on Echo Brickell, Jade Beach and Jade Ocean — has been hired along with Miami-based Sieger Suarez Architects to design a luxury condo tower at 300 Biscayne Boulevard, Property Markets Group (PMG) principal Ryan Shear said.
The skyscraper, designed as a stack of glass cubes, would be the tallest in Miami at 1,049 feet, renderings show. Plans for the property, which the company acquired for $80 million in 2014, include a 94-story condominium with 640 units and a luxury hotel with a wellness-focused spa. 
The project could be ready to launch in as little as two months, according to Shear — but that’s not happening. “We need a good cycle to launch projects like that. The worst thing in my opinion you could do is try to swim upstream,” Shear said, adding that he expects developers to start launching new developments again by 2019 or 2020.
The development is one of many scattered throughout Miami that won’t make it in this real estate cycle, but is poised to change the city’s landscape during the next one.
Another such project is The Towers by Foster + Partners, a pair of connected high rises planned for 1201 Brickell Bay Drive, about a mile south of 300 Biscayne, just over the Brickell Bridge. The developers — Florida East Coast Realty, Corigin Real Estate Group and McCourt Global Properties — met with top brokers last year seeking feedback on the plans, which now call for 660 residential units.
Sources say the waterfront development will be built as condos, but a launch date hasn’t been determined.
The Related Group, too, is expected to relaunch at least two large-scale condo projects in Miami during the next cycle: 444 Brickell Avenue and 1400 Biscayne Boulevard. Both are luxury condos that will be built in three phases. The only certainty regarding a launch date for either project is that now is not the time.
“We are looking for signs. Right now it’s not the right time to launch,” Carlos Rosso, president of the condominium division, said.
Slow sales led the developer to cancel its Auberge Residences & Spa Miami project planned for the site at 1400 Biscayne — shutting down the 290-unit tower’s sales center and returning buyers’ deposits by early 2017 — less than a year after launching. That cancellation in particular was a key indicator that the market had reached a critical point in the cycle, insiders said.
Devil-may-care developers
While some are waiting to start projects two to three years in the future, there are a handful of others fearlessly forging ahead today — though it should be noted that in those cases, ample coffers certainly helped. In March, two new projects launched sales. OKO Group, led by Vlad Doronin, began sales for Una, a 47-story, 135-unit luxury condo tower at 175 Southeast 25th Road, with an architect and sales team in place. The developer, who has the financial backing to move forward, is planning to complete the building by 2021. That’s when some say the next cycle will begin.
Over on Fisher Island, developer Heinrich von Hanau just launched sales for a project he already started building. Palazzo Della Luna, a 10-story, 50-unit building, is expected to open next summer. 
Some of the most high-profile projects where sales and construction are underway may continue to sell and build into the next cycle — a costly move that could pay off if their completions are timed correctly. They include One River Point along the Miami River and the Estates at Acqualina in Sunny Isles Beach.
KAR Properties’ Shahab Karmely launched One River Point, a twin-tower, 60-story, 386-unit luxury condo development connected by a “Sky Club,” in 2015 — at the same time that the Estates at Acqualina launched. Sales have been slow at One River Point, which also faces challenges by having a not-so-concrete timeline. “Our sales are chugging along,” Karmely said. But “they’re not as strong as I would like them to be.”
Jay Parker, CEO of Douglas Elliman Florida, acknowledged that the lack of a timeline is “a very significant concern” among buyers. “People want to know how long it’s going to take. That’s why you see a lot of developers taking a lot of risk,” he added.
Site work at One River Point is now underway, and the developer expects to pour the foundation by the end of 2018. Despite launching later in the cycle, Karmely, too, has deep pockets he can rely on. His silent partner is Daniel Loeb, the billionaire investor who runs Third Point, one of the world’s most prominent activist hedge funds.
“You can only wait so long before you say, ‘Oh, shit. I waited too long.’ In life, you’ve got to jump in and swim,” Karmely said.
Others are making conservative moves aimed at mitigating any potential losses.
Palazzo Della Luna by Heinrich von Hanau
“The best approach a developer could take is [to] look back at history,” said Peter Zalewski, founder of CraneSpotters and Condo Vultures Realty, databases that track the preconstruction condo market and distressed opportunities, respectively. He pointed to the St. Regis Bal Harbour as an example of a profitable slow-and-steady approach. “They built very slowly and were able to deliver right as the market was returning.”
At Brickell City Centre, Swire Properties still has about 150 unsold condos at Reach and Rise and won’t launch sales for phase two until those units are sold.
Nevertheless, Swire is preparing for the second phase, which is slated to be a vertically stacked equivalent of phase one. The development firm also recently announced a partnership with Colombian businessman Carlos Mattos to build a residential project on a site immediately north and west of Brickell City Centre. Development marketers are eager to bid on the new business.
Securing new sites
As a cycle is ending, developers typically focus on looking for land they can develop in the next cycle while getting approvals for plans on the sites they already own. But, given the specifics of today’s market, there are a few flaws in that plan.
Inigo Ardid, co-president of Key International, said land prices are still too high for such moves. “The value of land is how much you can build on it. If the market’s not there, it should get a corresponding discount,” he said. “Right now, it’s not.”
Ardid — whose company recently delivered the 389-unit 1010 Brickell and will soon complete The Harbour, a 425-unit project in North Miami Beach — is looking to buy land, “but it’s going to take a little bit of time for the market to come back. People have to price land correctly,” he said.
PMG recently closed on a site at 400 Biscayne Boulevard, where the developer will build apartments and condos. That deal, a $55 million purchase, was about two years in the making. “Pricing is tough right now,” PMG’s Shear said, adding that there’s a big gap between sellers’ perceptions and the reality of today’s market.
Shear points to a 26,600-square-foot development site at 200 Southwest Eighth Street in Brickell as an example. The corner property recently hit the market for about $19.4 million. It could be built into a 122-unit residential tower or a 244-key hotel, plus retail, according to Alfonso Jaramillo of Fortune International Realty, who is marketing the property. PMG looked at the site, but Shear said it was too expensive.
Prospecting continues nonetheless. Related has a couple of sites it’s eyeing for development, Rosso said, declining to identify where they’re located. Louis Birdman of One Thousand Museum said he and his partners own a site in Broward County that they’re considering for a project, but he did not disclose more information. 
“If I were developing in Miami, I would think long and hard about launching now,” said Elliman’s Parker.
A cloudy ending to the cycle
The end of the cycle isn’t such a terrible place to be today  compared to the crash-and-burn ending in 2008. Some hard-earned lessons from that time ensured that today, fewer buyers have walked away from their units — the 50 percent deposit structure is largely responsible for that — and fewer projects have been canceled.
Inigo Ardid
Shear believes the cycle ended a year ago, when sales slowed dramatically in South Florida. But now, he said, “we’re in a gap period, closer to the next cycle than we are to the end of this cycle.”
He’ll begin closings at Muse Residences in April with more than 80 percent sold. The luxury condo tower in Sunny Isles Beach has about 12 remaining units from a total of 64, he said. But last year, PMG sold only eight units at Muse. Most sold in 2015, when pre-construction condo sales in Miami peaked.
Pricing hit a high in 2016, which certainly didn’t help with sales, brokers said. While developers are hoping 2017 was the worst of it, that’s probably not the case. Once construction is for the most part over, developers will be stuck with unsold inventory and the carrying costs that come with those units. Buyers (including a number of investors) will also try to flip their units, flooding the market with even more inventory, Zalewski said.
“When the last crane comes down, that’s when the game is on because the clock is ticking,” he added. 
Related, which took the number one spot in TRD’s 2017 ranking of top South Florida condo developers, is delivering nine condo buildings this year and another four next year. Most, including Hyde Midtown, SLS Lux and the Paraiso complex in Edgewater, are nearly sold out, the company said.
Timing the market
If developers are getting their next-cycle plans together now, the question is, when should they pounce?
Before a new cycle begins, a few things have to happen. Rents will fall thanks to an oversupply of condos on the rental market. Resale inventory needs to decline — quickly — so that demand and prices will rise. 
“This is a hard market to predict. I don’t think anyone in their right mind thought the market was going to come back as strong as it did as long as it did,” Ardid said.
International Sales Group tracks pre-construction sales of projects east of I-95 in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, and found that of all the new inventory put on the market since 2012, 83 percent has been sold or pre-sold. ISG principal Craig Studnicky is especially optimistic, predicting that most of the remaining inventory will be absorbed this year, giving birth to the next cycle.
However, his prediction seems extremely unlikely, if not impossible — a recent report found that Miami-Dade has four years of existing luxury condo inventory. And a CraneSpotters analysis of new condo sales finds that there’s more than six years’ of supply in downtown Miami. In the county, nearly 2,800 units asking at least $1 million are on the market, according to Condo Vultures Realty. In 2017, 681 luxury units sold in the county, meaning an absorption rate of about 57 units a month, according to the Condo Vultures report. That’s not including the pipeline of new development.
“This is really like what 2011 was. It was pretty obvious we were nearing the end of selling the remaining inventory from the financial crisis of 2008, 2009,” Studnicky said.
KAR Properties’ Karmely doesn’t believe the market will come back as strong as it did at the start of this cycle. “Do I think it’s going to take longer for projects launched in the last two years to sell out? Yes, of course,” he said.
Once the demand is back and developers determine that they can sell new construction at a roughly 35 percent premium, they’ll launch new projects, he said.
Zalewski, who recently joined a private equity firm, Brickell Ventures, which is focused on buying bulk condo deals at discounts, expects the next cycle won’t begin until late 2021 or 2022. 
Everyone — developers, brokers and agents — are still optimistic, hoping the market will turn around, he added.
At the same time, they’re getting their approvals and teams in place to be in the right position “once we get out of the correction,” Zalewski said, referring to projects like Magic City and Design Place in Little Haiti. “They’re in early for the next cycle but way too late for this cycle.”
from The Real Deal Miami & Real Estate News News | & Curbed Miami - All https://therealdeal.com/miami/issues_articles/plotting-the-future-of-miamis-skyline/#new_tab via IFTTT
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Live Review: An Evening With Pat Metheny at the Beacon Theatre, NYC Saturday, June 10 2017
Pat Metheny: acoustic and electric guitars, guitar synth; Gwilym Simcock: piano, keyboards; Linda May Han Oh: acoustic and electric bass; Antonio Sanchez: drums. June 10, 2017 at the Beacon Theatre, New York, New York
Guitarist Pat Metheny has always strove to extend and test the limits of his vast catalog of music.  The twenty time Grammy winner, starting with the trio that recorded “Bright Size Life” (ECM, 1975) featuring Jaco Pastorius and Bob Moses, his flagship Pat Metheny Group, and ensembles featuring Charlie Haden, Billy Higgins, Dave Holland and Roy Haynes have provided a colorful multitude of settings over the years to express his improvisational and compositional muse.  Over the past four years, the guitar icon led one of his very best bands ever, the Unity Band featuring tenor saxophone titan Chris Potter, phenomenal young bassist Ben Williams and long time mainstay drummer Antonio Sanchez. The group, later expanded to include prodigious multi instrumentalist Giulio Carmassi released “Kin (<->)” (Metheny Group Productions/Nonesuch) in 2014, which married the long form compositional aspect found in Metheny Group offerings with a concentrated focus on improvisation which marked the “Unity Band” recording (Metheny Group Productions/Nonesuch, 2012) and seamless integration  of Metheny's mammoth Orchestrion, and electronics.  Mr. Metheny's aim over the past decade, and certainly a thread over his long career has been to feature an ensemble where he could play the vast amount of over 500 compositions he has written in an inclusive setting, and his new quartet featuring British pianist Gwilym Simcock, Australian based (by way of New York) rising star bassist, Linda May Han Oh and Antonio Sanchez truly did so with fire and elan June 10th at the Beacon Theater in NYC.
The quartet, which recorded an as of unreleased studio session in December, has been active touring since the end of last year, and has been playing the Metheny songbook with a few new compositions thrown in.  The use of some of New York's best inter generational players over the past several years in both the Unity Band, and now this new aggregation has invigorated the guitarist's playing, and he has been doing what countless others like Miles Davis and Art Blakey have done, providing a larger forum for the world at large to get to know the best of a younger generation. What's also apparent in this quartet,  is how much joy he has in having a pianist as a foil, and the simpatico with Antonio Sanchez, which of the course of fifteen years has become telepathic, to where they are practically a single entity.  
The evening's three hour assortment of classics and tunes rarely played in recent times kicked off with a 42 string Pikasso guitar improvisation which delved deep into harmonic contours, on the spot invention, quite a different complexion from the moodier offering that began the “Kin” tour show on Metheny's last swing in NYC in 2014.  The solo served as a prelude into “So May It Secretly Begin” to the roar of the Beacon audience, Metheny's solo was absolutely effervescent, some familiar devices presented in the freshness of inspiration.  May Han Oh revealed for the first time over many during the course of the evening, her superb note choices and rock solid time that enlivened the song's familiar changes.  Metheny was equally charged on “Have You Heard”, which performed in a purely acoustic setting and illustrated in much bolder terms how conducive the tune has been as a blowing vehicle. Metheny's series of choruses over the C minor blues, were potent and swinging, with the famous triad lick appearing towards the end of the first chorus.  Gwilym Simcock added a new layer of depth to the tune with a piano solo, something not found in the PMG renditions of the tune.  Simcock, part of Impossible Gentleman, also featuring PMG mainstay Steve Rodby was a combination of cerebral and earthiness, an aspect brought out to the fore on a stirring rendition of “The Red One”, made all the more interesting by Metheny starting the tune on his new Slaman hollowbody guitar as opposed to utilizing the Roland GR300 guitar synth throughout as he  has on the previously recorded versions. Metheny maintained use of the Roland G303 controller for the next tune, a new, free improv based piece incorporating the first tune the guitarist ever wrote (!) in addition to a melody of an unreleased tune that will be familiar to Metheny veterans from years ago and collectors of privately traded shows that the Metheny Group played between 1981 and 1982 entitled “Six And Eleven”.  Finally, the tune also incorporated “Offramp” before the guitarist switched to distortion laced, fretless guitar (first heard on 1996's “Quartet”--Metheny Group Productions/Nonesuch) engaging in scalding atonal fireworks in duet with Sanchez’ drums.  For the first of two occasions in the evening, the pair truly recalled the fire and intensity of John Coltrane and Rashied Ali, or if you will, aurally bringing to mind  titanic combat sports encounters of Ali and Frazier, Leonard vs Hearns I or Stephan Bonnar and Forrest Griffin. It was a true pleasure to hear the guitarist engage in his avant garde proclivities, always  a strong counterpoint to his melodic excursions.
Other set highlights included particularly poignant renditions of two “Secret Story” (Metheny Group Productions/Nonesuch, 1992) ballads “Always and Forever” featuring May Han Oh playing a variation of Toots Thielemans famous harmonica solo,  “Tell Her You Saw Me”.  May Han Oh flourished on a duet with the guitarist on  “Unity Village” and Metheny once again delved into post Trane, and Ornette vocabulary in an intense duet on Sanchez on “Question and Answer”.  The duo with Sanchez on “Question and Answer” and the guitar drums duet breakdown on “James” showed just how genius and accessible Metheny's writing really is because despite the chances taken  in these performances one could still easily mentally note the song form and the original changes amidst the daredevil improvisation.  It was also wonderful to hear the bop based burn on the rhythm changes workout “What Do You Want” from “Trio 99-00” (Warner Brothers/Metheny Group Productions, 2000) and a new waltz tune with a Celtic quality in the intro.  The duet between Simcock and Metheny on “Phase Dance” was very neat, Simcock is a very different player than Lyle Mays but his melodic depth is just as rich and compelling in his way to draw on multiple influences.  Encores included “Are You Going With Me?”, the acoustic guitar arrangement of “Last Train Home” that was first heard on the “Speaking of Now”(Metheny Group Productions/Warner Brothers, 2002) tour in 2003, and the acoustic medley featured on “The Unity Sessions” (Metheny Group Productions/Eagle Rock Entertainment, 2015) blu ray and DVD release.
It's abundantly clear the guitarist is relishing the new lineup of players, and he's rising to the challenge to the musical situations they create.  The reconciliation of various phases of his career under one roof, despite certain configurations like the Pat Metheny Group or Pat Metheny Trio having very specific identities, the depth and range of musical territory has always been an essential component of each. The forthcoming recording is going to be very interesting to see what musical directions it goes, and how this ensemble will evolve in subsequent tours.  The Beacon theater was definitely set simultaneously in nostalgia but looking forward as well.
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alfredrserrano · 4 years
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Developers are banking on co-living, but will it catch on?
Grove Central
When Pebb Capital principal James Jago attended Tulane University in the early 2000s, he lived in “a dumpy house” with three roommates.
But now, college students increasingly have the option to live off-campus in luxury student housing loaded with amenities like resort-style pools with cabanas, coffee bars, game rooms, movie theaters and fitness centers with yoga and indoor cycling studios. In Miami, near Florida International University and the University of Miami, developers are building high-end housing for affluent students. And when those students depart for the real world, they don’t want to downgrade their living arrangements.
“Students graduating have high expectations,” Jago said.
Therefore, Boca Raton-based Pebb Capital is investing in co-living developments, the grown-up version of dorm living that is taking off in South Florida. Pebb has injected $10 million into Property Markets Group’s 1,200-unit X Las Olas development, currently under construction in Fort Lauderdale, and plans to invest in the firm’s X project at 400 Biscayne Boulevard in downtown Miami.
Jago and other developers are betting on Florida’s growing population of recent graduates and those new to the workforce — specifically, those in the 25-to-35-year-old range — who want to live in the urban cores but can’t afford to pay sky-high rents. In the co-living buildings, renters pay about 20 percent less than they would for a studio apartment, but developers make more by fitting more bedrooms in one unit.
RELATED STORY: WATCH: Developers and co-living operators shed light on the growing industry
Typically housing three to four tenants, co-living units feature bedrooms that are much smaller than those in traditional apartments, but each usually has its own bathroom. 
And to sweeten the deal for tenants, co-living projects offer a slew of amenities. X Miami in downtown Miami boasts a gym, dog park, screening lounge, co-working lab and pool deck that’s known to host frequent pool parties. Cocktail bar Jaguar Sun is located in its lobby.
“What co-living does is it enables the elevation of their standard of living for young professionals. You can lower your monthly [cost] by renting a bedroom. It creates a sense of community,” Jago said.
Brian Koles, director of brand and marketing for Miami X developer PMG, said that while “we build buildings to make money, we firmly believe that it can be a win for everyone.”
PMG is the biggest developer of rent-by-the-bedroom apartment housing in South Florida and was the first to open a large-scale project when it delivered X Miami in 2018. The 32-story, 464-unit tower is now 97 percent leased.
Only 20 percent of PMG’s co-living projects — the three- and four-bedroom units — are actually reserved for co-living, Koles said. That allows renters to “graduate” from leasing bedrooms to their own units as they get promotions or move in with significant others.
Now that X Miami has been up and running for over a year, PMG is launching a division to expand across the country. The venture, called Society, includes X Las Olas, 400 Biscayne, a Wynwood project, one in Phoenix and another in Orlando. All five buildings will be branded Society. (See sidebar.)
But Koles and PMG will soon have some competition from another local developer who sees similar opportunities in the micro-apartment format. Miami-based Terra Group and Grass River Property, currently developing 401-unit Grove Central, inked a deal to bring in national co-living startup Common to manage a portion of the project — 22 units with 106 bedrooms.
“Co-living is supposed to garner more revenue in less space but at the same time deliver an affordable rent that is below the AMI [area median income] of a neighborhood,” said Terra Group president David Martin.
Co-living also allows multifamily developers to differentiate themselves from the competition, said Luis Flores, an attorney at Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr whose clients include PMG.
Even Richard Branson, who’s known to look into the future for his next big idea, will brand a Virgin hotel and residential tower with 150 furnished micro and co-living rental units, which will start at under 400 square feet. Scheduled for a 2023 delivery, the Brickell project is expected to break ground in 2020.
Startups surge
The affordability crisis nationwide and in Miami specifically creates an opportunity for builders and startup operators of co-living, who have been flocking to the region. According to an exclusive report from the Miami Herald, an October 2019 study by Florida International University’s Jorge M. Pérez Metropolitan Center found that more than half of cost-burdened renters — households that spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent — are spending more than 50 percent of their paychecks on rent.
Common Coliving Melrose
Startups like Common and Ollie are eager to swoop in with solutions. The two co-living operators have expanded throughout the U.S. and are now signing local long-term lease deals with apartment landlords and developers.
“You have a lot of supply that’s really geared toward luxury renters. It’s clear that there is really a need for affordable housing,” said Brian Lee, senior director of real estate at Common.
New York-based Ollie, which has raised $15 million, will manage 400 beds in one of three buildings at Gables Station, NP International’s mixed-use project in Coral Gables. Life Time Fitness is opening at the development, which will include about 120,000 square feet of retail space. (Read more about the project on page 46.)
Led by founder and CEO Brad Hargreaves, Common rents out rooms in furnished, shared apartments on flexible lease terms in 32 locations in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle and Washington, D.C. It signs leases for ground-up new developments and will also work with owners of existing buildings to convert larger two-bedroom units into three-bedrooms, and so on.
It then leases out bedrooms for rents that are 15 to 20 percent below what a studio in the same neighborhood is being marketed for. Rents in Miami will start at about $1,000 a month, Lee said. Common uses technology that generates leads, matches roommates and schedules tours.
The company sells annual memberships to residents who can transfer between properties if they’re moving to another city with Common locations. It has more than 1,000 members, according to a spokesperson.
In October, Common investor Six Peak Capital announced it had hired Cushman & Wakefield to raise $1 billion in debt and equity to fund its expansion of co-living in the U.S. Common has raised over $65 million since it was founded in 2015, from investors that include Norwest, Maveron, 8VC and LeFrak.
Common has yet to open a location in Miami, but it has about 800 bedrooms in the local pipeline. It’s also negotiating deals for roughly 2,500 bedrooms throughout South Florida.
The startup’s first location will open in late 2020 or early 2021 in a cluster of homes in Little Havana that will total 130 bedrooms.
At Terra and Grass River Property’s Grove Central, where Common is leasing a small portion of the apartment component, workforce housing apartments and retail space are also part of the mix. The development features easy access to the Coconut Grove Metrorail station.
Construction at Grove Central is expected to go vertical in the second quarter of next year. Martin said the developers worked with Common to design the units with smart kitchens, shoe and shirt storage, suites for couples, efficient bathrooms and “as much community space as possible.”
The project will have theaters, gyms, lounges, co-working space and coffee shops in addition to the retail space that’s already planned.
‘Urbin’ infill
Though it’s more common in European markets, co-living is still a fairly new asset class in the U.S., so Terra said it is testing the market by leasing only 10 to 15 percent of the units to Common. Cities also have different caps on how many unrelated families can live in one housing unit, or do not allow co-living at all.
“It’s a test, but it’s also what I think works,” Martin said. “Traditional apartments have a certain cap rate. For co-living, there has not been that much trading. We don’t really understand how the capital markets are going to treat it.”
Martin is also an investor in Urbin, a co-living, co-working and wellness real estate platform led by developer Rishi Kapoor, the CEO of Miami-based Location Ventures. The company is moving forward with a co-living project at 1234 to 1260 Washington Avenue in Miami Beach after the City Commission there passed legislation allowing co-living in November 2019.
Urbin has raised $85 million in funding from the Murphy family of Coastal Construction, former NFL player Jonathan Vilma, Rudy Touzet of Banyan Street Capital and others. At least three locations are in the pipeline for South Florida, and Kapoor said he hopes to open 100 locations in the coming decade.
Mitash Kripalani, director of investment services at Colliers International South Florida, is listing the 61-bedroom building at 800 South Dixie Highway for sale. Location Ventures took it over two and a half years ago, renovated it and put an ad up on Craigslist to rent out the bedrooms, geared toward attracting students from the University of Miami. Kapoor said he used the building as a model for Urbin.
Co-living projects are in some cases getting “higher rents than Class A product in Brickell” because developers are able to rent a bedroom out for $1,300 a piece, according to Kripalani.
“Some people say it’s a fad,” Kripalani said. “But I think as rents grow, if you’re a young millennial and you want to live downtown for [$1,300] a month, your best option is co-living.”
The post Developers are banking on co-living, but will it catch on? appeared first on The Real Deal Miami.
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walterfrodriguez · 5 years
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Plotting the future of Miami’s skyline
The Towers by Foster + Partners
With more than four years’ supply of luxury condos for sale, it’s plain to most people in the real estate community that the market does not need any more condo projects. Developers have no choice but to hope their existing projects inch closer to selling out while they toil away on plans designed for a better market in the future. Many are now plotting the next batch of supertall towers to grace Miami’s skyline by hiring top architects and attorneys, surveying industry leaders on their plans and assembling their sales and marketing teams, insiders told The Real Deal. They just have to wait out the cycle’s end before they launch.
In one example, Carlos Ott — a Uruguayan architect who worked on Echo Brickell, Jade Beach and Jade Ocean — has been hired along with Miami-based Sieger Suarez Architects to design a luxury condo tower at 300 Biscayne Boulevard, Property Markets Group (PMG) principal Ryan Shear said.
The skyscraper, designed as a stack of glass cubes, would be the tallest in Miami at 1,049 feet, renderings show. Plans for the property, which the company acquired for $80 million in 2014, include a 94-story condominium with 640 units and a luxury hotel with a wellness-focused spa. 
The project could be ready to launch in as little as two months, according to Shear — but that’s not happening. “We need a good cycle to launch projects like that. The worst thing in my opinion you could do is try to swim upstream,” Shear said, adding that he expects developers to start launching new developments again by 2019 or 2020.
The development is one of many scattered throughout Miami that won’t make it in this real estate cycle, but is poised to change the city’s landscape during the next one.
Another such project is The Towers by Foster + Partners, a pair of connected high rises planned for 1201 Brickell Bay Drive, about a mile south of 300 Biscayne, just over the Brickell Bridge. The developers — Florida East Coast Realty, Corigin Real Estate Group and McCourt Global Properties — met with top brokers last year seeking feedback on the plans, which now call for 660 residential units.
Sources say the waterfront development will be built as condos, but a launch date hasn’t been determined.
The Related Group, too, is expected to relaunch at least two large-scale condo projects in Miami during the next cycle: 444 Brickell Avenue and 1400 Biscayne Boulevard. Both are luxury condos that will be built in three phases. The only certainty regarding a launch date for either project is that now is not the time.
“We are looking for signs. Right now it’s not the right time to launch,” Carlos Rosso, president of the condominium division, said.
Slow sales led the developer to cancel its Auberge Residences & Spa Miami project planned for the site at 1400 Biscayne — shutting down the 290-unit tower’s sales center and returning buyers’ deposits by early 2017 — less than a year after launching. That cancellation in particular was a key indicator that the market had reached a critical point in the cycle, insiders said.
Devil-may-care developers
While some are waiting to start projects two to three years in the future, there are a handful of others fearlessly forging ahead today — though it should be noted that in those cases, ample coffers certainly helped. In March, two new projects launched sales. OKO Group, led by Vlad Doronin, began sales for Una, a 47-story, 135-unit luxury condo tower at 175 Southeast 25th Road, with an architect and sales team in place. The developer, who has the financial backing to move forward, is planning to complete the building by 2021. That’s when some say the next cycle will begin.
Over on Fisher Island, developer Heinrich von Hanau just launched sales for a project he already started building. Palazzo Della Luna, a 10-story, 50-unit building, is expected to open next summer. 
Some of the most high-profile projects where sales and construction are underway may continue to sell and build into the next cycle — a costly move that could pay off if their completions are timed correctly. They include One River Point along the Miami River and the Estates at Acqualina in Sunny Isles Beach.
KAR Properties’ Shahab Karmely launched One River Point, a twin-tower, 60-story, 386-unit luxury condo development connected by a “Sky Club,” in 2015 — at the same time that the Estates at Acqualina launched. Sales have been slow at One River Point, which also faces challenges by having a not-so-concrete timeline. “Our sales are chugging along,” Karmely said. But “they’re not as strong as I would like them to be.”
Jay Parker, CEO of Douglas Elliman Florida, acknowledged that the lack of a timeline is “a very significant concern” among buyers. “People want to know how long it’s going to take. That’s why you see a lot of developers taking a lot of risk,” he added.
Site work at One River Point is now underway, and the developer expects to pour the foundation by the end of 2018. Despite launching later in the cycle, Karmely, too, has deep pockets he can rely on. His silent partner is Daniel Loeb, the billionaire investor who runs Third Point, one of the world’s most prominent activist hedge funds.
“You can only wait so long before you say, ‘Oh, shit. I waited too long.’ In life, you’ve got to jump in and swim,” Karmely said.
Others are making conservative moves aimed at mitigating any potential losses.
Palazzo Della Luna by Heinrich von Hanau
“The best approach a developer could take is [to] look back at history,” said Peter Zalewski, founder of CraneSpotters and Condo Vultures Realty, databases that track the preconstruction condo market and distressed opportunities, respectively. He pointed to the St. Regis Bal Harbour as an example of a profitable slow-and-steady approach. “They built very slowly and were able to deliver right as the market was returning.”
At Brickell City Centre, Swire Properties still has about 150 unsold condos at Reach and Rise and won’t launch sales for phase two until those units are sold.
Nevertheless, Swire is preparing for the second phase, which is slated to be a vertically stacked equivalent of phase one. The development firm also recently announced a partnership with Colombian businessman Carlos Mattos to build a residential project on a site immediately north and west of Brickell City Centre. Development marketers are eager to bid on the new business.
Securing new sites
As a cycle is ending, developers typically focus on looking for land they can develop in the next cycle while getting approvals for plans on the sites they already own. But, given the specifics of today’s market, there are a few flaws in that plan.
Inigo Ardid, co-president of Key International, said land prices are still too high for such moves. “The value of land is how much you can build on it. If the market’s not there, it should get a corresponding discount,” he said. “Right now, it’s not.”
Ardid — whose company recently delivered the 389-unit 1010 Brickell and will soon complete The Harbour, a 425-unit project in North Miami Beach — is looking to buy land, “but it’s going to take a little bit of time for the market to come back. People have to price land correctly,” he said.
PMG recently closed on a site at 400 Biscayne Boulevard, where the developer will build apartments and condos. That deal, a $55 million purchase, was about two years in the making. “Pricing is tough right now,” PMG’s Shear said, adding that there’s a big gap between sellers’ perceptions and the reality of today’s market.
Shear points to a 26,600-square-foot development site at 200 Southwest Eighth Street in Brickell as an example. The corner property recently hit the market for about $19.4 million. It could be built into a 122-unit residential tower or a 244-key hotel, plus retail, according to Alfonso Jaramillo of Fortune International Realty, who is marketing the property. PMG looked at the site, but Shear said it was too expensive.
Prospecting continues nonetheless. Related has a couple of sites it’s eyeing for development, Rosso said, declining to identify where they’re located. Louis Birdman of One Thousand Museum said he and his partners own a site in Broward County that they’re considering for a project, but he did not disclose more information. 
“If I were developing in Miami, I would think long and hard about launching now,” said Elliman’s Parker.
A cloudy ending to the cycle
The end of the cycle isn’t such a terrible place to be today  compared to the crash-and-burn ending in 2008. Some hard-earned lessons from that time ensured that today, fewer buyers have walked away from their units — the 50 percent deposit structure is largely responsible for that — and fewer projects have been canceled.
Inigo Ardid
Shear believes the cycle ended a year ago, when sales slowed dramatically in South Florida. But now, he said, “we’re in a gap period, closer to the next cycle than we are to the end of this cycle.”
He’ll begin closings at Muse Residences in April with more than 80 percent sold. The luxury condo tower in Sunny Isles Beach has about 12 remaining units from a total of 64, he said. But last year, PMG sold only eight units at Muse. Most sold in 2015, when pre-construction condo sales in Miami peaked.
Pricing hit a high in 2016, which certainly didn’t help with sales, brokers said. While developers are hoping 2017 was the worst of it, that’s probably not the case. Once construction is for the most part over, developers will be stuck with unsold inventory and the carrying costs that come with those units. Buyers (including a number of investors) will also try to flip their units, flooding the market with even more inventory, Zalewski said.
“When the last crane comes down, that’s when the game is on because the clock is ticking,” he added. 
Related, which took the number one spot in TRD’s 2017 ranking of top South Florida condo developers, is delivering nine condo buildings this year and another four next year. Most, including Hyde Midtown, SLS Lux and the Paraiso complex in Edgewater, are nearly sold out, the company said.
Timing the market
If developers are getting their next-cycle plans together now, the question is, when should they pounce?
Before a new cycle begins, a few things have to happen. Rents will fall thanks to an oversupply of condos on the rental market. Resale inventory needs to decline — quickly — so that demand and prices will rise. 
“This is a hard market to predict. I don’t think anyone in their right mind thought the market was going to come back as strong as it did as long as it did,” Ardid said.
International Sales Group tracks pre-construction sales of projects east of I-95 in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, and found that of all the new inventory put on the market since 2012, 83 percent has been sold or pre-sold. ISG principal Craig Studnicky is especially optimistic, predicting that most of the remaining inventory will be absorbed this year, giving birth to the next cycle.
However, his prediction seems extremely unlikely, if not impossible — a recent report found that Miami-Dade has four years of existing luxury condo inventory. And a CraneSpotters analysis of new condo sales finds that there’s more than six years’ of supply in downtown Miami. In the county, nearly 2,800 units asking at least $1 million are on the market, according to Condo Vultures Realty. In 2017, 681 luxury units sold in the county, meaning an absorption rate of about 57 units a month, according to the Condo Vultures report. That’s not including the pipeline of new development.
“This is really like what 2011 was. It was pretty obvious we were nearing the end of selling the remaining inventory from the financial crisis of 2008, 2009,” Studnicky said.
KAR Properties’ Karmely doesn’t believe the market will come back as strong as it did at the start of this cycle. “Do I think it’s going to take longer for projects launched in the last two years to sell out? Yes, of course,” he said.
Once the demand is back and developers determine that they can sell new construction at a roughly 35 percent premium, they’ll launch new projects, he said.
Zalewski, who recently joined a private equity firm, Brickell Ventures, which is focused on buying bulk condo deals at discounts, expects the next cycle won’t begin until late 2021 or 2022. 
Everyone — developers, brokers and agents — are still optimistic, hoping the market will turn around, he added.
At the same time, they’re getting their approvals and teams in place to be in the right position “once we get out of the correction,” Zalewski said, referring to projects like Magic City and Design Place in Little Haiti. “They’re in early for the next cycle but way too late for this cycle.”
from The Real Deal Miami & Real Estate News News | & Curbed Miami - All https://therealdeal.com/miami/issues_articles/plotting-the-future-of-miamis-skyline/#new_tab via IFTTT
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nicolesrollins · 5 years
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Plotting the future of Miami’s skyline
The Towers by Foster + Partners
With more than four years’ supply of luxury condos for sale, it’s plain to most people in the real estate community that the market does not need any more condo projects. Developers have no choice but to hope their existing projects inch closer to selling out while they toil away on plans designed for a better market in the future. Many are now plotting the next batch of supertall towers to grace Miami’s skyline by hiring top architects and attorneys, surveying industry leaders on their plans and assembling their sales and marketing teams, insiders told The Real Deal. They just have to wait out the cycle’s end before they launch.
In one example, Carlos Ott — a Uruguayan architect who worked on Echo Brickell, Jade Beach and Jade Ocean — has been hired along with Miami-based Sieger Suarez Architects to design a luxury condo tower at 300 Biscayne Boulevard, Property Markets Group (PMG) principal Ryan Shear said.
The skyscraper, designed as a stack of glass cubes, would be the tallest in Miami at 1,049 feet, renderings show. Plans for the property, which the company acquired for $80 million in 2014, include a 94-story condominium with 640 units and a luxury hotel with a wellness-focused spa. 
The project could be ready to launch in as little as two months, according to Shear — but that’s not happening. “We need a good cycle to launch projects like that. The worst thing in my opinion you could do is try to swim upstream,” Shear said, adding that he expects developers to start launching new developments again by 2019 or 2020.
The development is one of many scattered throughout Miami that won’t make it in this real estate cycle, but is poised to change the city’s landscape during the next one.
Another such project is The Towers by Foster + Partners, a pair of connected high rises planned for 1201 Brickell Bay Drive, about a mile south of 300 Biscayne, just over the Brickell Bridge. The developers — Florida East Coast Realty, Corigin Real Estate Group and McCourt Global Properties — met with top brokers last year seeking feedback on the plans, which now call for 660 residential units.
Sources say the waterfront development will be built as condos, but a launch date hasn’t been determined.
The Related Group, too, is expected to relaunch at least two large-scale condo projects in Miami during the next cycle: 444 Brickell Avenue and 1400 Biscayne Boulevard. Both are luxury condos that will be built in three phases. The only certainty regarding a launch date for either project is that now is not the time.
“We are looking for signs. Right now it’s not the right time to launch,” Carlos Rosso, president of the condominium division, said.
Slow sales led the developer to cancel its Auberge Residences & Spa Miami project planned for the site at 1400 Biscayne — shutting down the 290-unit tower’s sales center and returning buyers’ deposits by early 2017 — less than a year after launching. That cancellation in particular was a key indicator that the market had reached a critical point in the cycle, insiders said.
Devil-may-care developers
While some are waiting to start projects two to three years in the future, there are a handful of others fearlessly forging ahead today — though it should be noted that in those cases, ample coffers certainly helped. In March, two new projects launched sales. OKO Group, led by Vlad Doronin, began sales for Una, a 47-story, 135-unit luxury condo tower at 175 Southeast 25th Road, with an architect and sales team in place. The developer, who has the financial backing to move forward, is planning to complete the building by 2021. That’s when some say the next cycle will begin.
Over on Fisher Island, developer Heinrich von Hanau just launched sales for a project he already started building. Palazzo Della Luna, a 10-story, 50-unit building, is expected to open next summer. 
Some of the most high-profile projects where sales and construction are underway may continue to sell and build into the next cycle — a costly move that could pay off if their completions are timed correctly. They include One River Point along the Miami River and the Estates at Acqualina in Sunny Isles Beach.
KAR Properties’ Shahab Karmely launched One River Point, a twin-tower, 60-story, 386-unit luxury condo development connected by a “Sky Club,” in 2015 — at the same time that the Estates at Acqualina launched. Sales have been slow at One River Point, which also faces challenges by having a not-so-concrete timeline. “Our sales are chugging along,” Karmely said. But “they’re not as strong as I would like them to be.”
Jay Parker, CEO of Douglas Elliman Florida, acknowledged that the lack of a timeline is “a very significant concern” among buyers. “People want to know how long it’s going to take. That’s why you see a lot of developers taking a lot of risk,” he added.
Site work at One River Point is now underway, and the developer expects to pour the foundation by the end of 2018. Despite launching later in the cycle, Karmely, too, has deep pockets he can rely on. His silent partner is Daniel Loeb, the billionaire investor who runs Third Point, one of the world’s most prominent activist hedge funds.
“You can only wait so long before you say, ‘Oh, shit. I waited too long.’ In life, you’ve got to jump in and swim,” Karmely said.
Others are making conservative moves aimed at mitigating any potential losses.
Palazzo Della Luna by Heinrich von Hanau
“The best approach a developer could take is [to] look back at history,” said Peter Zalewski, founder of CraneSpotters and Condo Vultures Realty, databases that track the preconstruction condo market and distressed opportunities, respectively. He pointed to the St. Regis Bal Harbour as an example of a profitable slow-and-steady approach. “They built very slowly and were able to deliver right as the market was returning.”
At Brickell City Centre, Swire Properties still has about 150 unsold condos at Reach and Rise and won’t launch sales for phase two until those units are sold.
Nevertheless, Swire is preparing for the second phase, which is slated to be a vertically stacked equivalent of phase one. The development firm also recently announced a partnership with Colombian businessman Carlos Mattos to build a residential project on a site immediately north and west of Brickell City Centre. Development marketers are eager to bid on the new business.
Securing new sites
As a cycle is ending, developers typically focus on looking for land they can develop in the next cycle while getting approvals for plans on the sites they already own. But, given the specifics of today’s market, there are a few flaws in that plan.
Inigo Ardid, co-president of Key International, said land prices are still too high for such moves. “The value of land is how much you can build on it. If the market’s not there, it should get a corresponding discount,” he said. “Right now, it’s not.”
Ardid — whose company recently delivered the 389-unit 1010 Brickell and will soon complete The Harbour, a 425-unit project in North Miami Beach — is looking to buy land, “but it’s going to take a little bit of time for the market to come back. People have to price land correctly,” he said.
PMG recently closed on a site at 400 Biscayne Boulevard, where the developer will build apartments and condos. That deal, a $55 million purchase, was about two years in the making. “Pricing is tough right now,” PMG’s Shear said, adding that there’s a big gap between sellers’ perceptions and the reality of today’s market.
Shear points to a 26,600-square-foot development site at 200 Southwest Eighth Street in Brickell as an example. The corner property recently hit the market for about $19.4 million. It could be built into a 122-unit residential tower or a 244-key hotel, plus retail, according to Alfonso Jaramillo of Fortune International Realty, who is marketing the property. PMG looked at the site, but Shear said it was too expensive.
Prospecting continues nonetheless. Related has a couple of sites it’s eyeing for development, Rosso said, declining to identify where they’re located. Louis Birdman of One Thousand Museum said he and his partners own a site in Broward County that they’re considering for a project, but he did not disclose more information. 
“If I were developing in Miami, I would think long and hard about launching now,” said Elliman’s Parker.
A cloudy ending to the cycle
The end of the cycle isn’t such a terrible place to be today  compared to the crash-and-burn ending in 2008. Some hard-earned lessons from that time ensured that today, fewer buyers have walked away from their units — the 50 percent deposit structure is largely responsible for that — and fewer projects have been canceled.
Inigo Ardid
Shear believes the cycle ended a year ago, when sales slowed dramatically in South Florida. But now, he said, “we’re in a gap period, closer to the next cycle than we are to the end of this cycle.”
He’ll begin closings at Muse Residences in April with more than 80 percent sold. The luxury condo tower in Sunny Isles Beach has about 12 remaining units from a total of 64, he said. But last year, PMG sold only eight units at Muse. Most sold in 2015, when pre-construction condo sales in Miami peaked.
Pricing hit a high in 2016, which certainly didn’t help with sales, brokers said. While developers are hoping 2017 was the worst of it, that’s probably not the case. Once construction is for the most part over, developers will be stuck with unsold inventory and the carrying costs that come with those units. Buyers (including a number of investors) will also try to flip their units, flooding the market with even more inventory, Zalewski said.
“When the last crane comes down, that’s when the game is on because the clock is ticking,” he added. 
Related, which took the number one spot in TRD’s 2017 ranking of top South Florida condo developers, is delivering nine condo buildings this year and another four next year. Most, including Hyde Midtown, SLS Lux and the Paraiso complex in Edgewater, are nearly sold out, the company said.
Timing the market
If developers are getting their next-cycle plans together now, the question is, when should they pounce?
Before a new cycle begins, a few things have to happen. Rents will fall thanks to an oversupply of condos on the rental market. Resale inventory needs to decline — quickly — so that demand and prices will rise. 
“This is a hard market to predict. I don’t think anyone in their right mind thought the market was going to come back as strong as it did as long as it did,” Ardid said.
International Sales Group tracks pre-construction sales of projects east of I-95 in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, and found that of all the new inventory put on the market since 2012, 83 percent has been sold or pre-sold. ISG principal Craig Studnicky is especially optimistic, predicting that most of the remaining inventory will be absorbed this year, giving birth to the next cycle.
However, his prediction seems extremely unlikely, if not impossible — a recent report found that Miami-Dade has four years of existing luxury condo inventory. And a CraneSpotters analysis of new condo sales finds that there’s more than six years’ of supply in downtown Miami. In the county, nearly 2,800 units asking at least $1 million are on the market, according to Condo Vultures Realty. In 2017, 681 luxury units sold in the county, meaning an absorption rate of about 57 units a month, according to the Condo Vultures report. That’s not including the pipeline of new development.
“This is really like what 2011 was. It was pretty obvious we were nearing the end of selling the remaining inventory from the financial crisis of 2008, 2009,” Studnicky said.
KAR Properties’ Karmely doesn’t believe the market will come back as strong as it did at the start of this cycle. “Do I think it’s going to take longer for projects launched in the last two years to sell out? Yes, of course,” he said.
Once the demand is back and developers determine that they can sell new construction at a roughly 35 percent premium, they’ll launch new projects, he said.
Zalewski, who recently joined a private equity firm, Brickell Ventures, which is focused on buying bulk condo deals at discounts, expects the next cycle won’t begin until late 2021 or 2022. 
Everyone — developers, brokers and agents — are still optimistic, hoping the market will turn around, he added.
At the same time, they’re getting their approvals and teams in place to be in the right position “once we get out of the correction,” Zalewski said, referring to projects like Magic City and Design Place in Little Haiti. “They’re in early for the next cycle but way too late for this cycle.”
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