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saturniandevil · 2 years

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August 2022 Important Dates

AKA my notes from the Astrology Podcast August forecast. To recap, Uranus in Taurus has indeed manifested in food & commodity shortages worldwide, for example the unrest in Sri Lanka. The Scorpio-Taurus eclipses have lined up with drastic market changes, and combined with the Saturn-Uranus square the next set of eclipses will likely indicated more crises of this sort.

Mars’s ingress into Taurus in July continues to overshadow much of August, which puts him in a T-square involving the Sun (♌), Uranus/Rahu (♉), and Saturn/full Moon (♒). In recent years fixed Mars-Saturn has coincided with spikes in different global health crises (ebola, covid, now monkeypox), and Chris points out that plagues were one of the Mars-Saturn significations in ancient texts that he was once quick to dismiss. Austin adds that as time goes on he finds that the oddly specific or seemingly quaint predictions of older texts seem to become more and more relevant if you pay attention.

August 1st - Mars, Uranus, and Rahu conjoin (18♉) (not pictured) Typical significations include accidents and injuries due to carelessness or recklessness. Guest host Nick Dagan Best says historically this masculine-seeming transit has actually lined up with the political/martial takedown of women in power: Marie Antoinette was beheaded close to a Uranus-Mars conjunction, as did the trials of Madame Mao in China in 1976 (and the Chariman’s death), the defeat of Mary, Queen of Scots, etc. On historic accidents, Austin points out that the explosion in Beirut last year occurred around a Mars-Uranus configuration: a volatile (Uranus) substance was being stored (Taurus) was ignited (Mars). In a natal chart, Frida Kahlo was born under a Mars-Uranus conjunction in the 6th house, opposite her ascendant ruler the Sun (in Cancer in the 12th house), and how a sudden bus accident (which occurred on a Mars-Uranus opposition) & subsequent injuries dramatically shaped the course of her life and work. Anyone with natal Mars-Uranus emphasis or who is accident-prone should especially avoid risk-taking in the beginning of August.

Overall, this configuration means that Saturn (♒), who was in the superior position over Uranus alone, won’t be able to win this 3-on-1 fight. On a more positive note, Robin Williams’ ascendant(♏) ruler Mars was conjunct Uranus (♋) in his natal chart, and he was well-known for his quirky, fast-paced humor. Nick points out he could take a boring talk show interview and make it into total anarchy, which made him such a popular and beloved comedian. In Taurus, we can also see rebels and radicals be the people involved in making food--protesting farmers in South Asia, the uprising of people against the existing social order for their basic needs. Another uprising involved in Mars-Uranus square Saturn is that, once Mars returned to Taurus about 18 months later, we have the congressional hearings about the January 6th events in the US. In broader history, Mars-Uranus square Saturn presided over the fall of Constantinople in the 1400s, considered the final end of Rome.

One thing to note is that Mars hits the exact conjunction to Uranus before squaring Saturn exactly, which may give Saturn a chance to reassert control. Mercury, the Sun, and the Moon will all square/oppose this configuration in a similar order: first Mars & Uranus, then Saturn. First a disruption, then attempts to reassert control. We’re also now on the upslope of a Saturn-Uranus conjunction that will peak in early November (obligatory Archetypal Explorer visualization below):

Overall we can see the disruption/destabilization of things we have taken for granted as basic foundations; perhaps that foundation was as strong as we thought it was. (For example, Roe v. Wade being overturned in the US). However, in individual nativities especially this can also have more positive outcomes. Having a Saturnian wall crumble can free you from a limitation you’ve always thought you had to live with. Whether you’re toppling structures that are no longer working for you or finding yourself newly freed by circumstance, there can also be many opportunities. We may realize that this crumbling has been going on for years--perhaps you first knew it needed to happen on the Taurus eclipse last November--but the final gust of wind knocking it over has given us clarity.

This is a kind of “season finale” for the Saturn-Uranus square that’s been plaguing us since the end of 2020--by March Saturn will be in Pisces, and it’ll be time for the Saturn-Neptune season. However, we do have an eclipse coming up (right on the day of midterm elections in the US!) that will accelerate some more disorder as we head into the end of this transit. Whatever troubles we encounter in the next few months will set the landscape for the next few years.

August 4th - Mercury enters Virgo Mercury both rules Virgo and exalts in this sign. It’s easily the most unhindered planet during the month of August, which Chris takes advantage of in the electional chart.

August 7th - Mars (22♉) squares Saturn (22♒) (not pictured) See last paragraph of August 1st.

August 11th - Venus enters Leo, Full Moon in Aquarius Here is the chart for the lunation, where the Sun is at 19 degrees of Leo and the Moon at 19 Aquarius (see alt text for interpretation of sign and planet symbols. Asc/Dsc = Ascendant/Descendant, and IC/MC = Imum Coeli/Midheaven):

Soon afterwards the Moon will conjoin Saturn at 22 Aquarius, basically forming a “giant silver spotlight” (Austin’s words) on the Saturn-Uranus/Mars/Rahu tensions we’ve been discussing. This is quite similar to the summer of 1999, so look out for parallels in your life if you remember then.

Venus entering Leo puts her back into the danger zone, opposing Saturn and being squared by Uranus/Mars/Rahu (North Node). Venus in Leo normally gives us the vibes of classic summer fun, showing off and enjoying ourselves, and she’ll trine Jupiter around the 17th and 18th, emphasizing this before Uranus shakes up our supplies and Saturn chills us. We may be able to use this to our advantage by having “serious fun”--our hosts suggest going to the ISAR conference in Colorado, but generally think something more reserved yet enjoyable. Mercury in Virgo really is good for learning and speaking.

August 13th - Electional chart for the month

The Saturn-Uranus/Mars square casts a dark shadow over the month, but Mercury will be especially strong in Virgo, where it has both domicile and exaltation. The chart is for around 8:00AM local time, with mid-Virgo rising and a fast, not-afflicted Mercury on the Ascendant. With mutable signs on angular houses, the Taurus-Leo-Aquarius difficulties are pushed into the cadent houses and will be less prevalent. The Moon in Pisces in the 7th house is applying to an opposition with Mercury, and this is a good chart for all things Mercury: writing, communication, detail-oriented and practical tasks. Invention, innovation, and efficiently working through things. During times of unrest, we really need some mental clarity to asses our facts and gaps in knowledge. Additionally, Mercury rules the 10th house of Gemini as well as the 1st, making this chart potentially very powerful.

August 18th - Mars enters Gemini Due to the October retrograde, Mars will be in Gemini from now until March of next year. By the time Mars leaves Gemini, Saturn will have left Aquarius for several weeks. However, being somewhere other than a fixed sign will release a lot of that tension we feel when Mars and Saturn pull us in different directions. For individuals, pay special attention to the day of Mars’s ingress into Gemini, as the part of the chart activated by this transit can provide some clues as to what you’ll be revisiting during the retrograde.

Generally, Mars speeds things up for us a lot in this quick sign, especially areas of life that have been stagnating. Angular houses and Gemini placements can expect energy and capability to move. However, our attentions and energies can get frayed by trying to split our energy and attention between too many things--when you’re hitting the accelerator all the time, you run out of gas. Mars in Gemini can also indicate lawyers, fighting words, and cyber warfare and generally a competitive edge to Mercury’s games. Tactics and trickery can also come into play here--think trickster heroes or using your wits rather than brute strength to achieve victory. Don’t assume it’s gonna be a straight line; prepare for a lot of twists and turns.

Whatever house Gemini falls in for you is going to receive a lot of heat. How can we hydrate this area and keep it cool? How much competition do you need to be engaged, but not overwhelmed?

August 22nd - Sun enters Virgo The Sun leaves that fixed sign tensions.

August 24th - Uranus stations Retrograde The last station of Uranus coincided with, among other things, the US’s messy exit from Afghanistan. In general Chris advises us to pay attention to stations and I agree. I think stations and ingresses precipitate events most obviously (compared to, for example, aspects or lunations).

On the subject of Uranus, Austin wants to point out that Uranus isn’t always a revolutionary we want. The underdog isn’t necessarily the good guy, and the planet’s disruptive energy manifests in both desirable and undesirable shakeups. In the next few years we’ll see the buildup to Uranus in Gemini, which marks the US’s third Uranus return. Previous returns were the Civil War and entering World War II--strong economic positions being taken and unrest over commodity shortages abroad will likely set the stage for the next few years.

August 25th - Mercury enters Libra Mercury will station retrograde in this sign early in September.

August 27th - New Moon in Virgo Here is the chart for it:

At 4 degrees of Virgo, this lunation early morning in Denver, or late at night further West. The lights perfectly square Mars in Gemini, and Venus is between exact hard aspects to Uranus and Saturn. Mercury (♎) opposing Jupiter (♈) will gives us some diplomacy in other areas of life. These two planets can show you how to play the devil’s advocate in a charming or well-placed way.

#astrology #forecast #transits #august 2022 #mars uranus conjunction #saturn square uranus #mars in gemini

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orangerosebush · 3 years

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Oh - all of them. But in the name of the game I pick 60, 70, 125 (my favourite season, I look forward to see what you associate with it) and 133. When it comes to book recommendations I trust you. I hope you take that as the huge compliment that it is!

First of all, that means so much coming from you -- I really respect your taste (and would love a recommendation in turn, if you're up for it 👀). Putting this under the cut, because this got a little long, oops.

60) a book that you think about at 3am

Tender Is the Flesh by Agustina Bazterrica, trans. Sarah Moses. It is… very provocative, and intentionally so. The premise is that a virus has made nearly all animals on Earth poisonous for human consumption — all animals, in fact, with the exception of humans. I think great horror often is political (and for what it's worth, I am vegetarian myself), but this book felt like it often forgot it was a book rather than an overly literary anti-factory farming polemic. When I wasn’t rolling my eyes, I was wading through some of the most disturbing passages I have read, so it at least accomplished its goal of producing some deeply repellent content, lol.

(Which isn't like... really a recommendation).

In terms of a book that is more of an "I am thinking about this at 3 am because the prose is so beautiful" way, I would say The Bloody Chamber by Angela Carter! It’s a series of short stories which are linked through a common tie to fairytales. The prose is sumptuous, and although there were a few stories I felt ambivalent about, I think on the whole, it’s an interesting piece regarding Gothic fiction and gender. My personal favorites from the collection are The Erl-King and The Bloody Chamber. I will say that due to its link to Gothic fiction, a few of the stories are nsfw, including elements of sex and sexuality.

70) your favourite poetry collection

Persian Love Poetry compiled by Vesta Sarkhosh Curtis and Sheila R. Canby. It includes one of my faves, by Mu’izzi Nishaburi:

“Give me three kisses, oh moon-faced beloved, I said.

She replied, Who in this world has been kissed by the moon?

The radiance of your face increases in the night, I said.

She replied, It is the moon that lights up the night sky.

I have never seen you stay motionless in one place, I said.

She replied, It is the eclipse of the moon that bewildered

mankind.”

125 (my favourite season, I look forward to see what you associate with it) your favourite autumn read

Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury! I think a folklore-filtered look at the transition from childhood to adulthood — particularly one that deals in horror — is extremely fun. Alternatively, Piranesi by Susanna Clarke. It’s dreamlike and lush and just perfect for the limbo between death and life that I think is so autumnal.

and 133) a book that you came across randomly and fell in love with

Frankenstein in Baghdad by Ahmed Saadawi, trans. Jonathan Wright. It’s beautifully written, with a style reminiscent of Gabriel García Márquez, and it manages to walk the line between tenderness and cynicism, grief and rage. I’ll attach the summary from Goodreads:

From the rubble-strewn streets of U.S.-occupied Baghdad, Hadi--a scavenger and an oddball fixture at a local café--collects human body parts and stitches them together to create a corpse. His goal, he claims, is for the government to recognize the parts as people and to give them a proper burial. But when the corpse goes missing, a wave of eerie murders sweeps the city, and reports stream in of a horrendous-looking criminal who, though shot, cannot be killed. Hadi soon realizes he's created a monster, one that needs human flesh to survive--first from the guilty, and then from anyone in its path. A prizewinning novel by "Baghdad's new literary star" (The New York Times), Frankenstein in Baghdad captures with white-knuckle horror and black humor the surreal reality of contemporary Iraq.

Something I wish the summary included was the fact that just as Hadi, who creates the creature (who is referred to as Whatsitsname), is central to the tale, so too is Elishva, an old woman. Her daughters have long fled the area, but she refuses to follow suit, convinced as she is that her son Daniel, who has long, long been declared dead, is still out there, alive in the chaos of the conflict. She’s deeply religious, and believes Saint George to be her patron saint -- and I will attach one of the epigraphs from the book.

“The king ordered that the saint be placed in the olive press until his flesh was torn to pieces and he died. They then threw him out of the city, but the Lord Jesus gathered the pieces together and brought him back to life, and he went back into the city”—The Story of St. George, the Great Martyr”

Elishva believes that by the power of Saint George, Daniel, her son who was lost in the war so long ago, has been revived as Hadi’s creature. The way this connects to the central narrative is one of the most affecting parts of the novel, and I am so glad I ended up picking it up after seeing a write-up on it.

#thanks nat!

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tipsycad147 · 3 years

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Of Rest + Worth: Skullcap Plant Profile

September 30, 2020 / Alexis J. Cunningfolk

The two nervines - those plants that help bring the nervous system into balance - that I use the most are Milky Oat (Avena Sativa) and Skullcap (Scutellaria lateriflora). Nervines are an essential part of my practice both in my home and in my wider community. In traditional western herbalism they are some of the most accessible and first learned plants that we encounter as students because caring for our nervous system and its vast network of experience and function is foundational to a body as whole and holy philosophy of practice.

Skullcap is always a close friend of mine and a beloved teacher, but I have found myself turning towards them with greater frequency in the past few years and especially since we all began grappling with our most recent global pandemic. They are a generous teacher and are a powerful ally in some of our most modern maladies, so I hope that the following profile on their healing gifts be a source of inspiration to you.

Skullcap

(Scutellaria lateriflora)

Folk Names : Mad dog weed, madweed, Quaker’s hat or bonnet, blue pimpernel, helmet flower Planet : Moon, Saturn, Mercury, Neptune, Pluto Element : Water, Air Moon Phase : Dark Moon, Full Moon Zodiac Signs : Gemini, Virgo Parts used : Leaf and flower Habitat : Native to North America and Eurasia. Growing conditions : Full sun with plenty of space and not overly rich soil. Collection : Summer, before flowering. Flavour : Bitter Temperature : Cold Moisture : Dry Tissue State : Tense/Restriction, Hot/Excitation Constituents : B vitamins, calcium, potassium, flavonoids, tannin, scutellonin, stearic acid, linoleic acid, oleic acid.

Actions : Anodyne, antibacterial, antispasmodic, astringent, anxiolytic, bitter, brain tonic, cardiotonic, diuretic, febrifuge, vasodilator, hypotensive, nervine, sedative, spinal cord tonic.

Main uses : A powerful and deeply loved nervine within traditional western herbalism, Skullcap restores strength to an overwhelmed nervous system and accompanying symptoms of muscle spasms and nerve pain all while cultivating calm. For nervousness, fear, and a sense of being overwhelmed, Skullcap stimulates the brain to produce more endorphins in the system due to the presence of scutellarin in the plant which becomes scutellarein in the body. The herb is one of my favorite brain tonics as it not only helps us to develop our pathways of mental clarity, but acts deeply on the nervous system to bring about a sense of wellness and peace. In the USA we live in a culture that glorifies overwork (more on that in a minute) and being productive so Skullcap, with its message of balance and developing awareness between what we're thinking and what we're feeling, is an herb that I turn to often in my practice.

Skullcap is an excellent ally for those who suffer from insomnia, especially when there is difficulty shutting off the busy chatter of a restless mind - Skullcap helps promote healthy sleep patterns. Herbalist Thomas Bartram notes that Skullcap is a wonderful nervine "for workaholics compelled to work long hours with resulting mental exhaustion" and I can attest to this again and again not only for myself but for many folks that I work with. (1) The wisdom of Skullcap is that as a teacher they help us to reassess what pressures are appropriate and inappropriate in our work life, helping us to return not only to a state of mental peace but dignity in work as well.

(Am I suggesting that Skullcap is an anti-capitalist ally? Yes, yes I am.)

The herb can be used for a variety of nervous conditions and imbalances stemming from hyperactivity including ADHD, anxiety, hypertension, nervous exhaustion, hysteria, neuralgia, premenstrual tension, and the effects of withdrawal from caffeine. In general, Skullcap is a gentle ally for supporting folks grappling with addiction withdrawal as well as withdrawal symptoms from tranquilizers and antidepressants. In my experience Skullcap is also an excellent ally to turn to for social media, gaming, and the new forms of online addiction that have emerged in our modern culture. The herb can also be used in general recovery from colds and influenza as well as prolonged periods of stress.

I use it for cases of fear, including nightmares, and the herb has a balancing effect on energy and emotions, helping both pass unhindered and appropriately through the body. Indicators for Skullcap include the collapse of the ability to hide nervous tension - folks are just not able to keep from the world their fears and anxieties which only makes them more fearful and anxious. Skullcap folk have a particular gift for embodying their thoughts, dreams, and possibilities but that means they can get caught up in the abstract and struggle with being in their bodies. Daily small doses of the herb over many months can be a helpful reset and support a return to embodiment.

Skullcap can also be used in recovery from too much sun exposure, for indigestion with the presence of gas such as in the case of a nervous stomach, for headaches and dizziness, for fevers and colds. Irritability is a big indicator for the use of Skullcap as the plant helps us to release the build-up of frustration. There are not many traditional topical uses for Skullcap that I've come across but I do add the herb to anxiety and stress alleviating bath blends.

Magickal uses : Skullcap is an herb of oaths and binding contracts from business agreements to romantic unions. The herb is worn by lovers to ensure fidelity. Just as the herb is used to calm nervous conditions in the body, Skullcap can be used in rituals and spells for promoting peace and calm. During trancework, journeying, and astral projection, Skullcap helps keep the spirit secured to the body so that it is able to find its way back after the journey. The herb can also be used to help people ground in any situation, but especially post-meditation or after waking up from an intense dream or nightmare. Skullcap has an affinity for the Autumn Equinox, helping us transition from the bright half of the year to the dark half.

The Skullcap Personality : The Skullcap personality is easy to spot – they are intense, their muscles tense, and they are prone to overthinking. Often, their brow is furrowed, even when they are young children, intensely occupied in thought and their inner worlds. Energetic and quick, they can appear restless or overactive, which they sometimes are, but for Skullcap folk they are purposefully busy and often happily, if very quickly, engaged with whatever project or imaginative game they are pursuing. These are kids who enjoy problem solving in their play - whether puzzles or saving the galaxy from certain doom - but if they do tend towards more nervous energy and fears even if they appear brave and confident in their play and relationships. Skullcap folks can have a hard time feeling present in their bodies and can experience moments of disorientation whether dizzy spells or struggling to find their physical edges. They have to be very careful about frequent burnout and making sure that they take regular time off from their intense periods of thinking and doing The great gift of Skullcap folk is that they have an incredible capacity to remain focused on the theoretical, impossible, and seemingly unattainable, bringing all into the range of accessibility for themselves and their community. Skullcap helps them to access the balance necessary to help save the galaxy and also get enough rest.

Contraindications : Contraindicated during pregnancy. Dosage : 3 – 10 drops up to 3 times daily of a 1:5 alcohol extract. 1 teaspoon of herb per cup of water. Small doses are quite effective and recommended with Skullcap.

Recipe : My Favorite Tea for Easy Evenings + Self-Care

(1) Thomas Bartram, Bartram's Encyclopedia of Herbal Medicine (London: Constable & Robinson Ltd, 1998), 394.

I’ve written about Skullcap a lot so it was about time that I shared a full profile on them. They are featured on my list of herbs and essences for empaths and highly sensitive folks and are definitely one of my favorite eclipse season herbs.

If you’re looking for more plant profiles, come this way. May your the path with the plants be a verdant, wild, and illuminating one full of viriditas.

http://www.wortsandcunning.com/blog/skullcap-plant-profile

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husid · 5 years

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Wednesday Morning Punter - Super Bowl LIII Edition

How have you been the last eight years?

I, like most blog writers am just fine and not at all wallowing in existential doom questioning my own self-worth. But this isn’t about me, this is about you, the beloved readers. So back by the popular demand of no fewer than two people, is a special pre-Super Bowl edition of Wednesday Morning Punter!

Just in time for the final game of the NFL season before real football gets started, today’s issue will tackle a Super Bowl LIII preview, the all important Legacy Stakes, missing prop bets, the unenviable existence of a Patriots atheist living in Boston, and some NFL hodgepodge.

So without further ado, Let’s Punt!

What to Expect When You’re Projecting

What I can guarantee about tonight is that there will be nearly universal disappointment regarding the Super Bowl commercials, Maroon 5 will bring out a halftime show guest singer that will appeal to neither millennials nor baby boomers, and Twitter will have a much needed night focused on something other than Donald Trump, Howard Schultz or AOC.

What I cannot guarantee is just about everything else, starting with the winner of the game. Anecdotal research leads me to believe that most of the experts are picking the Patriots, which is incredible for a team that No One Believes In (more on that later), but it’s by no means a slam-dunk. We know that both teams deserve to be here (Saints fans may disagree, but one call aside, it’s impossible to conclude that both teams aren’t at the very least among the top two teams in their respective conferences). The Pats quickly worked out of an early 1-2 hole to reel off six straight wins and finish at a respectable if somewhat human 11-5, good enough for the AFC’s two-seed. The Rams were even more dominant, busting out of the gate with eight straight wins en route to a 13-3 record and the NFC’s two-seed. Both won their divisional playoff game relatively convincingly before squeezing out dramatic overtime victories in their conference championship games, thanks primarily to resilient offensive play. The two teams didn’t play other this year, but did have five common opponents, including the entire NFC North, and the Chiefs. I don’t put much stock into common opponents as a means of assessing a head-to-head advantage – both because strengths and weaknesses versus one opponent aren’t necessarily transitive, and because the highs and lows every team experiences in a season mean that an opponent one week does not equate to that same opponent on a different week – but for those of you who do, both the Rams and Pats beat the Chiefs in tight regular season games (and the Pats again two weeks ago), and each went 3-1 against NFC North opponents, with the Patriots losing a demoralizing week 3 matchup in Detroit, and the Rams falling in week 14 to Chicago in a defensive showdown.

Frankly, the Patriots are easy to predict. They’re going to show up with a solid game plan, Brady is going to be accurate and minimize mistakes, and the defense will play bend-but-don’t break defense to keep the Pats within striking distance at any point in the game.

The Rams, on the other hand, are a bit more of a wild card, despite being the more consistent team during the regular season. LA only has one offensive star (Todd Gurley), yet finished the year in the top-2 in total scoring and yards per game, and the top-5 in both rushing and passing. But Gurley disappeared two weeks ago (literally and figuratively), starting quarterback Jared Goff is still pretty green, and the Rams D is very much a middle-of-the-road unit.

So what will ultimately decide whether the scrappy Patriots will finally be able to celebrate in Foxborough, or LA pretends like it actually cares about pro football for at least an offseason? My best guess:

• The Gronking of Over-the-Hill House: No one’s worried about his post-game performance tonight at the Gold Club (I know it’s gone, but my knowledge of Georgia strip clubs begins and ends with that fabled establishment), but my confidence in his elite on-field level is not what it once was. Despite his ability to still make a big play, Gronkowski generally looks like a shell of his former self, and my money’s on Sunday being the last day he plays an NFL game. Of course when he’s playing to his ability, he’s one of the most unguardable players in football.

• Aaron Donald Has A Show: Donald was undoubtedly the best defensive player in the NFL this year (an NFL positional record 20.5 sacks for a defensive tackle), but oddly he’s still not quite a household name (the NFL’s refusal to market any defensive player other than JJ Watt could comprise a whole other post). Fighting through double-teams and keeping Brady on his heels could be the key difference in whether TB12 is able to pick apart the Rams secondary, or is too uncomfortable to get into a consistent rhythm. There’s a good chance the whole country knows his name after tonight.

• From Dusk Till Sean: I can’t remember ever seeing a Sean this hot, and I live less than a mile from Southie. But lost in last week’s questionable victory was the fact that Rams coach Sean McVay was a missed pass interference call away from dealing with an entire offseason full of questions about his game plan. Since we still haven’t heard any indication that Todd Gurley was injured, his benching for most of the NFC Championship game is baffling. Giving your (and arguably the league’s) best player five total touches with a Super Bowl appearance on the line simply doesn’t add up – particularly since Gurley’s backup, CJ Anderson, was no more effective with his 17 touches – and a similar utilization of Gurley on Sunday will make Bill Belichick’s job a lot easier. If the rushing attack remains stymied, will McVay have Goff ready to shoulder the load? McVay is like that cool, mysterious guy who transfers to your high school for sophomore year but no one knows much about him. He might be the man, he might just be a boring introvert, but his parents are gone next weekend and he’s about to throw the first party at his place. Will he have enough booze? Will he invite those weirdos he went to school with last year? Will he freak out when the first Bud Ice (is that still a thing?) spills on the carpet? Will he trust his buddies enough to take care of things while he shows his crush where he practices his guitar? The spotlight is finally on. Be cool, Sean McVay, because high school kids can turn on you fast.

• Master of Run: It’s no secret that Gurley’s production had tailed off a bit, even before last week’s unjustified benching. Gurley has now eclipsed 100 yards rushing just once in his last four games. Maybe last game’s light load was a gift, Todd, but if he starts the Super Bowl rushing like he has since late December, will Gurley be able to do enough through the air to make an impact? Given his overall season, it’s pretty shocking that this is even a reasonable question.

• A Series of Gameplanned Events: Beginning with his plan to take Marshall Faulk out of Super Bowl XXXVI, Belichick has earned his reputation as a master tactician, which shone through in the Patriots next two Super Bowls (both victories). His track record since then has only further solidified his status as the best coach in NFL history, reaching six more Super Bowls and failing to make the playoffs just once since 2002, when Brady was shelved for the season (and Matt Cassel still led New England to an 11-5 record). But he’s just 2-3 in subsequent Super Bowls, and in each of the three losses he was squarely outcoached in at least one major facet of the game: His failure to account for the Giants ferocious pass rush rattled Brady all game in Super Bowl XLII and forced him to play dink-and-dunk football in Super Bowl XLVI, which neutralized his big-play ability. In last year’s Super Bowl, Belichick’s defense couldn’t find an answer for journeyman Nick Foles, and his thoroughly mediocre receiving corps. We’ll never know if BB’s head-scratching decision to bench struggling but proven starting cornerback Malcolm Butler (a legitimate explanation for which we still haven’t received) would have been the difference in the game, but it’s nearly impossible to conclude that Butler would have made the Patriots secondary worse on that day. So the question remains, will Belichick have an effective plan in place to mask his team’s weaknesses (the secondary) and accentuate its strengths (steady rushing attack, relentless short passing game), or will he fall victim to an unforeseen Rams wrinkle, or worse, his own ego?

• Santa Clarita Quiet: When Jeff Fisher went to Jared with the first overall pick in the 2016 draft, there were more than a few skeptics, all of whom seemed vindicated by Goff’s rookie campaign. Since McVay took over as Rams head coach in 2017, however, Goff has been nothing short of a top-tier quarterback, culminating in a 2018 in which he finished with a 101.1 passer rating (8th among qualified QBs), 4,688 passing yard (4th), 8.4 yards per attempt (4th), and 32 touchdowns (6th, though it should be noted that of the quarterbacks with more TDs, none had a top-tier RB for the entire season). But the fact remains that despite how great a season the Rams have had, the media attention thrust on pro football players in Los Angeles has landed somewhere between “Sugarfish No Longer Finds Bluefin Tuna to be Ethically Sourced” and “Ponytailed, Meisner-Reading Papyrus Employee Doesn’t Actually Have Passion for Stationary,” allowing Goff, who has never lived outside of California, to live a relatively pressure-free life. Since the playoffs started, Goff’s numbers have gone down a bit, as can be expected against better competition, and that on the surface isn’t alarming. But he’s about to play the biggest game of his life on the biggest stage in American sports, after two weeks of the most intense media scrutiny he’s ever experienced. Some quarterbacks wilt under that pressure, some excel, and others are simply unaffected (see: Manning, Eli). We’ll see which bucket Goff falls into.

My Pick: Rams 29 Patriots 27 Confidence level: 2 In the Brady/Belichick era, each of their eight Super Bowl matchups has ended in a one-score game, and most of them have looked a lot more lopsided on paper before kickoff than this one. I picked the Patriots to beat the Eagles last year, refusing to believe that Belichick could lose to someone like Nick Foles in a Super Bowl. But ultimately players play the games and I don’t see a clear improvement in the Patriots defense from the one that gave up 41 points to the Eagles last year. Now they’re playing a much better offense and likely a better quarterback than Foles, so much like the Chiefs game, the Patriots defense will have their hands full.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have Tom Brady, so any argument for why the Pats will win could justifiably end there. His receiving corps, while far from elite, seems to be gelling at the perfect time, and could not have been more clutch than they were against the Chiefs. The Rams defense on the whole won’t strike fear into Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel’s heart, but Aaron Donald will be the toughest individual force he (or anyone in the league) will have to game plan for all season. I think Donald and Ndamukong Suh will be able to minimize rushing success for the Patriots, and will get just enough pressure to force Brady to get the ball out quickly and allow the Rams’ back seven to sit on the short outs and crossing routes that have allowed the Patriots to move the chains all season long.

But ultimately, in a one-score game – which I’m betting this will be – one play can make all the difference, and all the pre-game analysis is worthless. I don’t expect a true shootout, but I do see an offensive battle that ends with the Rams defense getting that one crucial stop down the stretch that the Chiefs failed to get two weeks ago. That said, your guess is as good as mine.

Other Super Bowl Notes and Tidbits

• The Defenders: The Patriots finished seventh in the league in scoring defense, but much of that has to be attributed to the dreadful offenses of the rest of the AFC East. In their six games against the Dolphins, Bills and Jets, the Pats D allowed 6, 7, 13, 33, 12 and 3 points. In four games against top-10 scoring offenses on the other hand, the Patriots gave up 24, 40, 31 and 17 points, to the Colts, Chiefs, Bears and Steelers, plus another 31 to the Chiefs two weeks ago. You’d think this would be a bad omen for New England as it prepares to stop the league’s second-most prolific offense, but despite the gaudy numbers allowed to elite offenses, the Patriots are 4-1 in those games. Essentially, while we can be confident the Rams will put up points, the type of game that would dictate that flow wouldn’t necessarily put the Patriots at a disadvantage.

• Oldzark: “Experience” is always talked about as a factor in determining who wins a big game, but I’m not sure that has a ton of merit, given that players have to be able to win big games to even get to the Super Bowl. Looking at the last ten Super Bowls, eight featured quarterback matchups in which only one starting QB had started a Super Bowl previously. In those matchups, the team with the Super Bowl-experienced quarterback is 4-4. Looking beyond the quarterback, teams that had been to the Super Bowl in the previous five years (an objective number, but one that’s likely to incorporate the team having an experienced, returning corps) are 3-3 when playing teams that had not been to the Super Bowl in that same span. Draw your own conclusions.

• The Vinatieri Method: Both teams should feel very comfortable with their kicking situation going into Sunday. Stephen Gostkowski has established himself as one of the most reliable field goal kickers of his generation, while Greg Zuerlein just KICKED A 57-YARD FIELD GOAL IN OVERTIME TO SEND HIS TEAM TO THE SUPER BOWL. Zuerlein was unfairly robbed of national glory, due to a brutal combination of the refs overshadowing the Rams win, and Joe Buck, as he’s wont to do, delivering the call of an incredible feat in an incredible situation as if he was narrating his wife picking up her first alimony payment before leaving the house for good. “Meredith will attempt to steal my money along with my soul… she has the check, she’s getting into the Tesla of Miles, a 30-something brand ambassador… AND SHE’S GONE! We’ll see you later tonight at the country club gala so as to keep up the appearance that we’re amicable divorcees!” Zuerlein actually sprained his foot at halftime of that game, which is something to be aware of, but given how he kicked in the second half and overtime, it’s not something I’d be too concerned about.

• Big Mouth: I could not be less interested in Media Day or any of the PR shenanigans that go on between the conference championships and the Super Bowl. I get why the NFL does it, and I’m sure journalists appreciate that they get something to write about beyond another position-by-position breakdown, but wake me up when it’s time to clock the national anthem length. That said, it’s worth taking note of all the players who basked in the glow of the media attention, because a good chunk of them will inevitably blame the media for stirring controversy down the road. Like it or not, the media has as much to do with sports being as popular as they are (and player contracts being as big as they are) than the players themselves. If you’re going to use it to your advantage when things are going well, you can’t bitch about the negative coverage when the good times stop rolling.

• Lost in Grace: Living in Boston and not being a Patriots fan sucks. Not because they always win, or because the Celtics and Bruins can be in the midst of playoff runs and the Boston sports media’s top story will still be which flavor Coolatta Gronk is going to be drinking in his upcoming Dunkin’ commercial, but because of all the faux-narratives that the team puts forth and the fans eat up. There was the “Patriot Way” which preached loyalty and selflessness, just to see Belichick ship off beloved stars and community staples like Lawyer Milloy, Richard Seymour and Chandler Jones (side note: I’m not saying these moves didn’t work out or were uncouth, just pointing out the disingenuousness of pretending to view your players as anything other than football players). There was the myth of only valuing team-first players, then signing guys like Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, Aaron Hernandez, Albert Haynesworth, Chad Johnson/Ochocinco, Brandon Meriwether and Josh Gordon. There’s still the idea that the team should never give the media any controversy fuel, while Belichick writes a letter of support to Donald Trump (that he had to know was going to be made public) and Brady displays a MAGA hat in his locker.

And now we’ve reached a new one, and possibly the most infuriating one. I understand that every team, at one point or another uses “no one believed in us” as a rallying cry or source of motivation, and sometimes its true and sometimes its not. But Xerxes and the Persian Empire had a more viable claim to the “no one believed in us” mentality after Thermopylae (read a book) than the Patriots do now. Brady and Belichick have presided over two separate dynasties in consecutive decades (for what it’s worth, I don’t think a team can go ten years between titles and still be considered a single dynasty) and are about as far from being an underdog year-to-year as any team since the 1960s Celtics. My problems with this whole charade are two-fold. First, it’s flat out wrong. Until this year’s AFC Championship game, the Patriots with Brady starting had not been underdogs IN 69 CONSECUTIVE GAMES. The chart below (courtesy of footballperspective.com) reveals as much, with the blue dots indicating regular season games, the red dots indicating playoff games, and the empty dots showing the four games Brady was suspended for to start the 2016 season.

So not only is the narrative flat-out silly on the surface, it’s based on no evidence whatsoever. Yes, there are a lot of people who like to root against the Patriots, and there are some corny studio analysts looking for attention who will make exaggerated but transparent claims like “the Patriots era is over,” but not a single one of them is surprised that the Pats will be taking the field in Atlanta tonight.

The second part of this argument that really grinds my gears is that among the actual Patriots doubters, the vast majority live in New England. Listening to Boston sports radio all season, you’d think the Pats were flirting with a .500 record, and wondering whether they should just start tanking to move up in the draft. Sports bars around the region were filled with people lamenting Brady’s fall from best quarterback in football to merely top-5, wondering if the defense could stop a good offense in the playoffs, and pondering whether Matt Patricia was really the brains behind the whole operation (that last one is an exaggeration, but only slightly). So in essence, Patriots fans are projecting their team insecurity onto fans of the rest of the league –none of whom actually doubt the Patriots’ ability to win each game– and then criticizing the straw men they’ve created while they themselves doubt their team privately under the cover of a New England winter. It’s madness.

Listen, I get it. Winning is awesome, and it gets less awesome when that’s all that’s expected of you. No one roots for the house at a casino, no one is pulling for the shark in Jaws, and no one outside New England wants the Patriots to win, because they always win. So if you have to convince yourself that you’re not going to win because that makes it more fun when you inevitably do, go for it. But leave the rest of us out of it. Because even when we don’t think you’ll win, we still kind of do think you’ll win. That’s should be a badge of honor, not a knock.

Legacy Stakes

I usually like to do a section about what’s at stake for each team and its players from a legacy perspective. Sadly, this combination of teams doesn’t give me much to write about. The Pats can tie the Steelers for the most Super Bowl wins of all time (six), but Brady and Belichick are already the best quarterback and coach of all time, respectively, so another Super Bowl win pads their stats, as it were, but won’t do much in terms of validation. Sure, if they fall to 5-4 all-time in Super Bowls, it will give a little extra fodder for the people who say they’d rather be 4-0 in Super Bowls (a la Joe Montana) than 5-4, but those people are woefully misguided anyway, so it’s hardly worth debate.

On the other side you have a team full of young stars, including its coach. Obviously winning a Super Bowl is a form of career validation regardless of when you win it, but no one on the Rams is even close to “can’t win the big one” territory, so the feel-good storyline of the wily old veteran finally winning a ring that we’ve had in years past (Charles Woodson with the Packers, Anquan Boldin with the Ravens, Demarcus Ware with the Broncos, etc.) is noticeably absent this year. The lone obvious exception is Ndamukong Suh, but he’s kind of an asshole, so I don’t think people are rooting hard for that story.

The Prop Bets That Weren’t

For those without a true dog in the fight, the best thing about the Super Bowl, aside from the food (bar food is the best food, don’t @ me), is the betting. Much like Adam Silver and ESPN, the general Super Bowl-watching populace has embraced casual betting more in recent years, leading once-cheeky prop bets like which Gatorade color will be poured on the winning coach or how long the national anthem will last to almost be considered passé.

Sadly, the creativity on prop bets has waned, forcing me to take matters into my own hands. Place your bets before 6:00 EST (Just kidding…)

Ndamukong Suh Personal Foul Penalties Called (includes declined penalties) O/U .5

Tom Brady Berates An Official After Getting Knocked Over O/U 4.5

Tony Romo Accurately Predicts A Play Call Pre-Snap O/U 8.5

Age of the First Guest Singer to Join Maroon 5 O/U 38.5

Times I Consider Subscribing to the WWE Network During Halftime So I Can Watch Halftime Heat Instead of Maroon 5 O/U 5.5

Shots of Rams Fans Wearing Sunglasses Indoors O/U 326.5

Decibels Jim Nantz’ voice drops during the first CBS promo for the Masters O/U 46.5

References to Sean McVay’s Paid “Hold Me Back” Guy O/U 1.5

Commercials With Thinly Veiled Criticisms of Trump’s Immigration Policies O/U 2.5

Commercials For Movies Starring Dwayne Johnson O/U 3.5

Jim Nantz Refers to Romo as “Partner” O/U 5.5

Rams Fans at LA’s Super Bowl Parade (if applicable) O/U 13.5

Welp, that’s all I got for you today, folks. Next week we’ll have recap of the Super Bowl and its inevitable fallout, some non-football sports thoughts, and a little TV/Oscars talk. Until then, thanks for reading, and keep punting!

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