Four years ago today (March 13th), then President Donald Trump got around to declaring a national state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. The administration had been downplaying the danger to the United States for 51 days since the first US infection was confirmed on January 22nd.
From an ABC News article dated 25 February 2020...
CDC warns Americans of 'significant disruption' from coronavirus
Until now, health officials said they'd hoped to prevent community spread in the United States. But following community transmissions in Italy, Iran and South Korea, health officials believe the virus may not be able to be contained at the border and that Americans should prepare for a "significant disruption."
This comes in contrast to statements from the Trump administration. Acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf said Tuesday the threat to the United States from coronavirus "remains low," despite the White House seeking $1.25 billion in emergency funding to combat the virus. Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC’s Kelly Evans on “The Exchange” Tuesday evening, "We have contained the virus very well here in the U.S."
[ ... ]
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the request "long overdue and completely inadequate to the scale of this emergency." She also accused President Trump of leaving "critical positions in charge of managing pandemics at the National Security Council and the Department of Homeland Security vacant."
"The president's most recent budget called for slashing funding for the Centers for Disease Control, which is on the front lines of this emergency. And now, he is compounding our vulnerabilities by seeking to ransack funds still needed to keep Ebola in check," Pelosi said in a statement Tuesday morning. "Our state and local governments need serious funding to be ready to respond effectively to any outbreak in the United States. The president should not be raiding money that Congress has appropriated for other life-or-death public health priorities."
She added that lawmakers in the House of Representatives "will swiftly advance a strong, strategic funding package that fully addresses the scale and seriousness of this public health crisis."
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also called the Trump administration's request "too little too late."
"That President Trump is trying to steal funds dedicated to fight Ebola -- which is still considered an epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo -- is indicative of his towering incompetence and further proof that he and his administration aren't taking the coronavirus crisis as seriously as they need to be," Schumer said in a statement.
A reminder that Trump had been leaving many positions vacant – part of a Republican strategy to undermine the federal government.
Here's a picture from that ABC piece from a nearly empty restaurant in San Francisco's Chinatown. The screen displays a Trump tweet still downplaying COVID-19 with him seeming more concerned about the effect of the Dow Jones on his re-election bid.
People were not buying Trump's claims but they were buying PPE.
I took this picture at CVS on February 26th that year.
The stock market which Trump in his February tweet claimed looked "very good" was tanking on March 12th – the day before his state of emergency declaration.
Trump succeeded in sending the US economy into recession much faster than George W. Bush did at the end of his term – quite a feat!. (As an aside, every recession in the US since 1981 has been triggered by Republican presidents.)
Of course Trump never stopped trying to downplay the pandemic nor did he ever take responsibility for it. The US ended up with the highest per capita death rate of any technologically advanced country.
Precious time was lost while Trump dawdled. Orange on this map indicates COVID infections while red indicates COVID deaths. At the time Trump declared a state of emergency, the virus had already spread to 49 states.
The United States could have done far better and it had the tools to do so.
The Obama administration had limited the number of US cases of Ebola to under one dozen during that pandemic in the 2010s. Based on their success, they compiled a guide on how the federal government could limit future pandemics.
Obama team left pandemic playbook for Trump administration, officials confirm
Of course Trump ignored it.
Unlike those boxes of nuclear secrets in Trump's bathroom, the Obama pandemic limitation document is not classified. Anybody can read it – even if Trump didn't. This copy comes from the Stanford University Libraries.
TOWARDS EPIDEMIC PREDICTION: FEDERAL EFFORTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN OUTBREAK MODELING
Feel free to share this post with anybody who still feels nostalgic about the Trump White House years!
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By: Liam Mannix
Published: Aug 2, 2022
Since the emergence of COVID-19, a question has obsessed many: where did it come from?
That question – and the fact the virus was first detected in the city of Wuhan, home of the Wuhan Institute of Virology – has sparked geopolitical convulsions and a fracturing of faith in science, not to mention a thousand anonymous Twitter-sleuth accounts.
People love a conspiracy theory, especially one playing out in real time on social media.
Meanwhile, a group of scientists has been working on their own parallel investigative effort. With a pair of articles published in Science last week (you can read them here and here), they say they are at the end of their search.
The virus almost-certainly jumped from wildlife into humans in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, the papers argue. The authors have even found the most likely section of the market. They have old photos of caged raccoon dogs – known carriers of COVID-19 – being sold there.
[ Thread: https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1551937826580824070 ]
“The siren has definitely sounded on the lab leak theory,” says Professor Edward Holmes, a world-leading viral evolution expert based at the University of Sydney and co-author on both the papers. “In terms of what we can reasonably do, with the available science and the science we’ll get in the foreseeable future, I think we’re at the end of the road frankly. There’s not a lot more to mine.”
Professor Dominic Dwyer, director of public health pathology in NSW and a member of the World Health Organisation (WHO) team that travelled to Wuhan last year to investigate the origins of the virus, agrees.
“That’s what we thought originally back when we did the first report. This is yet another brick added to the wall of information around zoonotic infection.”
Twin strains
When COVID-19 first emerged in Wuhan, two distinct viral lineages were spotted, separated by two small changes in genetic code. They were detected a week apart in late December 2019.
The team behind the Science papers used computers to simulate the most likely sequence of events that would produce two viruses circulating at the same time.
They found it is exceedingly unlikely that a single virus would jump into humans and quickly split into two distinct variants.
Far more likely, was that the virus had been circulating in animals for long enough to split into multiple variants, two of which then jumped separately into humans. Multi-virus jumps have been seen when COVID-19 jumped from minks on Dutch farms to humans, and when SARS and MERS also jumped into humans.
If the COVID-19 virus originated in a lab, as some conspiracy theories suggest, you’d expect a single introduction into humans – rather than two distinct viral lineages. And both strains were found in samples taken from Huanan market. “That, I think, is pretty good evidence,” says Dwyer.
[ Thread: https://twitter.com/hholdenthorp/status/1551986401541033984 ]
The Huanan Market
Our story now moves to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market; two-thirds of early hospitalised cases had a link to the market.
Lab-leak advocates argue that Huanan is a perfect super-spreader site. Maybe a scientist from the Wuhan Institute of Virology shopped there and spread the bug?
The Science papers show that 155 COVID cases in December 2019 were strongly clustered in the suburbs around the market – including cases with no known link to the market.
If the virus emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, wouldn’t early cases cluster around there? Wouldn’t an infected scientist have passed on the virus while walking to work? “You wouldn’t expect to find the virus around a not-very-well-visited animal market in a different part of the city,” says Holmes.
And the papers show Huanan is hardly the perfect superspreader site that some suggest.
It turns out the market is a small and relatively obscure shopping spot. By reviewing social media check-in data, the team deduced that 70 other markets in Wuhan had more visitors than Huanan. Of 430 identified possible super-spreader sites in Wuhan, such as shopping malls, supermarkets and schools, the Huanan market was among the least visited.
“It’s like going to Coles in Bendigo on a wet Wednesday afternoon. It’s not a thriving mass of humanity,” says Holmes.
Ground zero
Using Chinese and WHO data along with public online maps, business registries, photos and official reports, the scientists reconstructed a map of the Huanan market.
This map shows the west side of the market. Each black dot represents a human case. Triangles mark stalls selling live animals or unknown meat.
Coloured boxes mark the number of times Chinese investigators detected COVID-19 on environmental samples in late 2019 (by the time they arrived, the market had been shut down and disinfected, and there were no live animals left to test).
On the far left, marked by the dotted line, is the market’s wildlife section. The Chinese found COVID-19 all over it. Eight of the earliest human cases linked to the market worked nearby.
The red box marks a stall where COVID-19 was found on a metal cage, a machine for removing hair and feathers from animals, two carts used for moving cages, a nearby water drain and on the ground.
Ironically, Holmes had visited that same stall on a trip to Wuhan in 2014 – and snapped a photo of caged raccoon dogs stacked on top of caged birds. “We can’t prove it is this exact stall but the data is very suggestive,” he says.
We know now that COVID-19 moves easily among many species of animals, including raccoon dogs – but also badgers, hares, rats and foxes, all observed being sold live at the market in 2019.
Raccoon dogs were supplied to the market by a network of farms in western Hubei province, the Science papers note. Western Hubei is known for its extensive network of caves filled with Rhinolophus bats, which carry coronaviruses similar to the one that causes COVID-19.
“Raccoon dogs are a suspect,” says Holmes, but not the only one. “I think, strongly, there are a whole bunch of animals out there who have viruses like this that we have not sampled yet.”
Compare the theories
Theory one: Two closely related versions of a virus emerge at the same time in people who live near or work in a small market selling wildlife. The market sells animals known to both carry the virus and to be farmed near bats that carry similar viruses. We detect those viruses on cages in the market’s wildlife section.
We know from past experience viruses can jump from animals to humans at wildlife markets. And we don’t have any evidence of the virus spreading anywhere else in Wuhan before it was in the market.
Compare this to the lab-leak theory. No one has ever been able to prove COVID-19 – let alone a twin strain – was ever at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. There’s no epidemiological evidence that the virus was spreading near the institute.
“There’s no emails. There’s no evidence in any of the science. There’s absolutely nothing,” says Holmes.
Lab-leak proponents have now turned to trying to find malfeasance in the articles’ peer review process, of all places. Holmes doubts the conspiracy theorists will ever be convinced. “Even if the Chinese do let us in the lab, people would say ‘aha, but they’re covering it up’,” he says.
--
Publications:
The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic
The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2
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No amount of the evidence that they don’t understand will be enough for conspiracy theorists. All the way down to “iF YoU WeReN’T ThErE, hOw cAn yOu kNoW?”
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"If a pig catches both a human influenza A virus and an avian influenza A virus at the same time, it can spark a process known as viral reassortment — a genetic exchange in which flu viruses swap gene segments."
"Those swaps can introduce dramatic changes, producing a new virus with certain properties of a non-human strain coupled with the capacity to infect and spread between people."
"The death rate in humans may be upwards of 50 per cent, World Health Organization data suggests, though it's possible that milder infections are getting missed, skewing the case fatality ratio. Still, in a population that's never been exposed, the global impacts could be dire."
"More human cases could also be happening under the radar among farm workers who've moved to the U.S. from abroad, don't speak English as their first language, and may be hesitant to seek medical help, he added."
"So I think there's probably underreporting on both sides," Armstrong said."
"If [H5N1] gets into a population where there's constantly animals going in and out … it might not ever leave."
I've been watching this develop for the past several days, and apart from being terrified most people will not take this seriously (I've seen a handful of people already shout conspiracy on social media and it's alarming to see, as always). What I wanted to point out is that pandemics are going to continue to be our 'normal.' I watched a great video on YouTube a while ago (I believe it was by Vice?) that touched base on how this is going to become our new reality because of multiple factors (such as our proximity to animals, and environments/etc). It was when Covid hit and they did a piece debunking some of the misinformation floating on the internet. If I can find it I will post it here because it was informative and relevant to pretty much any world crisis we will see around any virus that spreads among a human population.
This post isn't trying to fear monger anyone, I just hope more people are aware of what is happening because this is important to talk about. There are already cases (of cows getting this bird flu) in the US, and I won't be surprised if there will be instances in more countries around the world. As usual, keep washing your hands/keeping good hygiene practices, masking up (and if you aren't I hope you consider it), and taking precautions if you do happen to visit/work or go near a pig or poultry farm too:
I'll keep track of this here of course, but please stay informed folks. And also FU to any governments who will try to minimize this or try to diminish the severity until it's too late and community spread happens like Covid because their actions are influenced by capitalistic interests.
Update (April 7th, 2024, 9:32pm EST): to anyone wondering where some of the source information originates from -here is a link to the CDC. They are tracking documented avian virus outbreaks in the US and the public can access it here:
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Donald Trump has never had a high regard for the health or even the lives of his supporters. We recall how he told them to take quack medicines during the pandemic emergency and retweeted anti-mask conspiracy freaks after he horrifically mismanaged the early response to COVID-19 in the US.
To Trump, nothing counts except Trump. His supporters are just disposable pawns in his political, legal, and business struggles.
He demonstrated this again by telling Iowa caucus goers that it's okay if they die — as long as they caucus for him first.
Donald Trump urged voters to get out to the Iowa caucuses even if they are “sick as a dog” in a defiant rally on the eve of his first major election test.
The former president said that even if people “passed away” shortly after voting it would be “worth it”, and once again launched attacks on the New York judge who had denied him a delay in his civil trial so that he could attend his mother-in-law’s funeral.
His remarks came during an in-person rally in Indianola on Sunday afternoon. Mr Trump was previously forced to swap out other planned events in Iowa with tele-rallies due to severe bad weather conditions in the state.
“You can’t stay at home,” he told those gathered. “[Even} if you’re sick as a dog and you say ‘darling I can’t make it…’
“Even if you vote and then pass away it’s worth it.”
It wouldn't be surprising if somebody DID die because they were sick and were told by Trump to caucus for him in sub-zero weather. In Des Moines, not the coldest city in the state, the temperature at 7 PM CST is predicted by the NWS to be -7°F/-22°C. It may be even colder when people are returning home from caucus locations. If you're not in good health, you shouldn't be outside in such conditions.
Despite being a lying gluttonous adulterer who hasn't been to church in decades except for weddings, funerals, and political events, Trump is treated as a god by many nominal Christian fundamentalists. Trump is their Baal.
The only way to counter such irrational fanatics is to outorganize and outvote them. Despite their willingness to die for Trump, they are still a minority. If we remain focused, determined, and (most of all) united, we will fend off the threat to democracy in 2024.
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