#also THIS WAS IN 2011 THIS ISNT EVEN A RECENT THING

[vyl3tpwny]

do you have a preferred method to get vsts and other such instruments for a DAW?? im poor as heck and dont know ANYTHING about piracy, im so scared of getting goobered by people on the internet

i wish i knew more about the best go-to sites for pirating rn unfortunately i have no clue. ppl on the internet can have such shit intentions too so i dont even know where to look or who to ask. but also here's some free + VERY cheap things u may consider (below the break):

vital synth (i will always shill for vital bc i use it constantly and its free lol)

ob-xd synth (it says buy for $49, but the free download is on the left. the buy link is just a donate)

klanghelm plugins (all these are made by one dude. mjuc is a great vintage style compressor, the dc8c is a pretty featured compressor for the price, sdrr has a particularly nice tube saturation/distortion, and vumt is a great metering plugin, i have vumt on every single project since 2019)

analog obsession (if you donate $5 to their patreon you can get every single plugin they make. also all made and maintained by one person. lots of different things, so i recommend just downloading everything and exploring the functions of the plugins)

tokyo dawn labs (all very high quality mixing stuff. they have free versions of most of their premium stuff and they're quite featured despite being free. ez.)

kilohearts (they recently made all their main effects free. and if you want their flagship stuff, its all rent-to-own as well.)

sforzando (soundfont player. if you dont know what soundfonts are, theyre essentially really condensed, lightweight sampled instruments. they can often sound rlly cheap or tacky [which might be good, i definitely love that sound] but just install this and google [instrument] soundfont and just find lots of free instruments that way)

togu audio line (some free effects and instruments if you scroll down. but i also recommend TAL Sampler if you want a cool sampler and can afford it)

meldaproduction (has a free plugin suite. theres an annoying watermark at the bottom for free versions, but everyone understands. shit is expensive)

native instruments (they have the komplete start bundle which is just a bunch of free decent stuff)

musicradar FREE SAMPLES (ive sworn by a few of the sample resources that i've gotten from musicradar as far back as 2011 lol)

looperman FREE SAMPLES (looperman is a user-sourced sample website where ppl upload samples they've made* and you can just download and use them for free. sometimes people request specific credit, so check for that if you can. *NOTE: its very possible for people to upload unlicensed samples or stuff they didn't make so use your best judgement when sorting through stuff)

freesound FREE SAMPLES (freesound rules always reliable)

synth1 (AHHHH IM SO HAPPY I CAN RECOMMEND THIS RIGHT NOW!!!! synth1 used to be abandonware but was finally picked up again and is supported by modern systems once more. i used this religiously from 2013-2017. and i'm going to start using it again honestly)

valhalladsp (this is the only exclusively premium thing i'm going to leave in this thread [aside from bitwig, below], but it's just that god damn good. every plugin of theirs is $50, so if you can manage to go for ValhallaVintageVerb and/or ValhallaDelay you will basically never need another reverb/delay ever again; would recommend NOT pirating from them if you can help it bc theyre definitely a very small company but u know.. ur call)

bitwig (if you need a DAW, i can now heartily recommend Bitwig. it's on the rent to own program through splice if you're ok getting it legally...)

—

i know this isnt what u asked but i hope its still helpful. i've also rescinded my recommendations for spitfire audio bc the company was revealed to be run by a bunch of queerphobic knuckleheads. everything in this list i have personally used for my own music and can vouch for them from actual experience (YES even bitwig, i made the song "Futura" on Carousel exclusively with Bitwig, making it the first time i've made an entire song outside of Ableton since 2014).

again i hope this helps, forgive me for not knowing enough about pirating at the moment 😭 please make so much music and please look at this animal:

[mamawasatesttube]

Need your full opinion on the recent smot issue

overall, i was... pretty disappointed in it, honestly. spoilers below!

i have always found kenny porter's writing to be kinda heavyhanded, and smot has been no exception, but i was pretty willing to go with the flow because heavyhanded or not at least it seemed to be a fun story. with the hints and buildup in #3 i was worried we were essentially setting up for a reprise of knockout arc from sb94, with kon aiding and abetting someone shitty while being manipulated into thinking they were misunderstood and wanted to do better, and i had misgivings about that idea, but...

...but honestly like. this isn't actually better. i feel like porter is really, REALLY hammering in this idea that kon hasn't actually matured, that he's still the same kid from sb94 just trying to relive his glory days, which is just. like. did adventure comics/superboy (2011) mean nothing to you kenny? (i know they did. i know.) it's also just a disappointing angle to take on his MANY issues with being in a new universe that literally forgot him. of all the things he could be struggling with, i don't think naivety is a particularly interesting OR in character one to focus so hard on.

it's also just REALLY been getting me that we're supposed to believe that everyone on earth didn't notice he vanished for 2 weeks, and yet ALSO that they do genuinely care for him. smot is set before house of metallo arc in action comics, which means we know at the end of it kon still comes back to be generic background superman #3 or whatever; i find that pretty jarring especially with the idea that none of the superfam even noticed he left the planet for two whole weeks. of course, given porter's heavyhanded writing style i know that'll simply be glossed over and ignored, because... subtlety? implication? what are those? it's the same with the entire idea of EVERY SINGLE PROBLEM ON EARTH being solved--that makes no sense and will be summarily never mentioned again, of course. and ditto re: tim, bart, and cassie going on a mission in paris without so much as a text to kon about it. it's all pretty contrived as setup, and the execution continues to feel contrived and unsatisfying to me. smot4 in particular felt like they were Really rubbing in the complete nuking of the pre-flashpoint kon&clark relationship :(

i'm ALSO really just not happy with the ridiculously centrist take of "what if the guys fighting back against the genocidal imperialists were JUST AS BAD AS THEM? OR WORSE?" but i mean. the bar is on the fucking floor and dc just loves to bring industrial excavators.

on the plus side, at least there are some cute kon panels in it :) i'll take those where i can even if i'm going :/ at everything else going on. i'm pretty sure the ending will involve the superfam coming to the rescue in issue 6 and kon going WOW... i DO have a place on earth after all... despite none of the actual issues he had at the beginning of the run being remotely resolved. also i won't be surprised if they don't actually condemn the imperialists particularly much. travv and the cosmoteers have been set up as the primary antagonists so... eh.

overall i'd say smot 4 was where the plot stopped really being fun to me. i'd had my hangups and nitpicks with 1-3, but 4 just dropped the ball a LOT. maybe 5 and 6 will be better, but i'm not too optimistic that it won't just entirely fall flat (again, though, i just know i don't actually like the entire setup for kon in rebirth, so i'm biased). still gonna buy em though ofc. gotta get my good good kon covers even if the story isnt very consistent or satisfying!

ETA I FORGOT TO MENTION. CAN THEY STOP CLONING HIM?????? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD how many plots from sb94 are they gonna try to squeeze into the end of this run at the same time (and inevitably do worse than they were originally written). how many

#the ''it's been 2 weeks'' thing made me go OH MY GODDDDD UUHGHHGHHGHHGH like out loud #like kenny am i supposed to believe they care about each other or not. kenny answer me #answers #smot spoilers

[unlimitedhorsepower]

Tagged by: @thevoiceofthanatos​

Favorite color: warm bright yellow, mustard yellow & old gold, and just yellow in general. its a good colour. it makes me happy

Currently reading: idk, probably star trek fanfic my friend @rubbertplant​ was writing to give my opinion on it. i often read through my own stuff too lol, like whoah i wrote that??? ADHD has taken everything from me including my capability to read though, for real. ive been thinking of trying to listen to some audiobooks recently though, this cannot continue... its just that i also have no ears disease so idk how well that would go. determined to try though

Last song you listened to: havent been listening to music so much bc ive been playing videos instead but my last.fm has all my spotify listens so itll stay up to date on whatever i listened to last. currently seems to be “please play-bite” by pinocchioP. i often just let spotify play me whatever it recommends anyhow so theres variance. and i only started this account like a few months ago max so its not really a full picture of my music-listening

Last movie (in theaters): its not really a movie, but if it counts, the first ginga nagareboshi gin stageplay (recorded and released in finland in theaters with subs)

ginga was always huge in finland for some reason. idk. the anime is so violent though that i got really afraid of bears for some reason. theres so much blood... i never read the manga either i just knew of the anime and partook in my share of wolf roleplays (dogs were uncool! so i didnt do dog roleplays. iirc that really was my reason).

heres some funny wolves from my wolf rp days

2010. one of the first things i coloured digitally... i painstakingly cleaned the scanned pencil lineart with a mouse

2011. i had gotten my first drawing tablet as a birthday/xmas gift and practiced a ton around this time (more than just wolves lol)

Last series I watched: trigun stampede. even changed my phone bg into vash... but millions knives is probably my favourite. he just does everything wrong and makes his life worse. and everyone elses life too bc he sucks. but hes multifaceted so hes also my meow meow and whatever. i hope a ford explorer drives over him

if it counts though, ive seen some star trek TOS episodes and movies because my friends have been watching them. im not super into it but its always fun to hang. i also dont watch a lot of stuff. i dont even know what i do. guy who doesnt read or watch things but listens to jerma videos on youtube without actually looking at them while i “draw” and “write”

Craving: food honestly. i should cook something lmfao. i also want soda so bad but i dont have any. id make some tea but its disgustingly warm in my house so i only want cool drinks. could kill for a nice milkshake or a smoothie rn i think

Tea or coffee: tea... im the only finnish person who doesnt drink coffee for real. also got really into loose leaf tea bc i befriended a chinese lady who is really into tea and has a tea shop in the city near where i live

Currently working on: drawing this and trying to think how i want to do it. somehow want to incorporate flat colours and maybe shade his body naturally, and make the blood look realistic instead of flat colours... hmm not sure yet what i want to do

other than that im trying to proofread the chapter of my ryanyuri fanfic i already published because theres a lot of typos and strange sentences in there but its been a chore bc my body breaks down when it gets too warm smfh... not looking forward to when my apt goes over 30 degrees celsius it is unlivable. im also trying to complete a “lookbook” of my tnb sims. but i always start huge projects that take three million years to complete and im really slow lmfao

Tag people you’d like to get to know better: i could just ask these questions from everyone i talk on discord with. fuck my friends i know irl or otherwise, only asking people who r my friends through tumblr. no need to do this though. also this isnt probably meant to be answered so long-windedly... thats just me. i cant answer with one word i gotta write an essay. heres three tags though @basslinegrave​ @vita-divata​

(record scratch before 3rd tag) and @rubbertplant​ bc they were streaming a game in discord when i started typing this and i was like hey wanna do it and they were like yeah

i expect replies on my desk by 5pm TOMORROW!!!!get to work!!!! no i jest, do it or dont, i dont mind either way, just if you feel like doing this. if you see this and want to do it feel free to consider yourself tagged. godspeed

#gabriels ramblings

[klonoadoortophantomile]

okay i know nothing about object shows but im willing to learn so if youre up for another infodump im all ears

STARES AT THIS ASK. okay uhrnmhm thisll be under a cut becuz its long <//3 just gonna talk abt General Osc Things since you said you dont know much… okay👍

okay so object shows are just like.. silly funny web-series things with little object guys. they tend to have faces and little stick figure limbs but of course there are always characters that will break typical design conventions. general name for Eveythjng is the object show community (osc for short. theres so many acronyms hopefully that isnt too confusing..)

first ever object show is bfdi (battle for dream island) it was made in 2010 by these two guys, the huang twins, youve probably seen Something theyvemade before they make a lotta cool things, it started in 2010 and is still going on today! its a competition based show inspired by total drama, and the main premise is 20 contestants who are little silly objects are competing for the titular ‘dream island’ throughout multiple challenges, and characters get voted out each episode by the viewers! bfdi is mostly silly jokes and slapstick type stuff, but still has certain bits where they get more ‘serious’ and has its fair share of lore and character arcs. practically every object show is based off of/inspired by this since it was the first and set up the general formula most other shows follow =)

generally speaking its agreed on that inanimate insanity (ii for short) is the second show to be made, and this one takes even more total drama/survivor inspirations. it started in 2011, and is also still going on, generally the second most popular show and REALLY popular on the tumblr side of the osc, probably due to its more ‘serious’ tone compared to other shows. season 1 is pretty… aged.. you can tell it was made by a bunch of teens in the early 2010s, but season 2 as it goes on gets more and more focus on story, character arcs and development, all that jazz. theres a ton of shows from around the time that later season 2 episodes where releasing that take a lot more inspirtation from it in tone and stuff!

something im not entirely sure how to fit into the main bits is that these are like. largely made by kids/teens. bfdi was first created when they were in like middle school n stuff, same with ii, in more recent years as people who have been the community for a while n stuff are getting older theres a lot more adults of course but its still mainly younger people… not enough people seem to take that into consideration when talking abt the community at large/certain shows n stuff so i figured id make sure to point it out 👍

actually speaking of that. a lot and i mean a LOT of shows end up being kind of… obviosuly made by kids. a lot of people find this annoying but i personally couldnt care less its pretty endearing to me (probably cuz me and my friends were all like that lolz) although i can understand where people are coming from with shit where its just like.. offensive. thats not too common tho in my expierence. okay so generic and ‘poorly’ made shows are super common. the response to this there was a massive surge in joke shows which are their whole own beast. im not too familiar with them so im not the best person to come for for that stuff, they generally just joke about how generic and oversaturated object shows were getting to be around the time . all that shit. gimmick shows are also pretty common nowadays, i havent seen any of these so i have nothing to really say i just dont know much aside from they have Gimmicks and thats the whole premise ?

a show thats become like, massive, considered one of ‘the big three’ up there with bfdi and ii, is ONE by cheesy hfj (sometimes also called hfjone or one hfj) its this sort of meta show that uses object shows as a framing device (and its predecessor was this show called battle for circle which is a joke show poking fun at how low quality and samey everything is blah blah blah) and its. a whole thing . i dont even know how to really explain it in a quick summary its like… the undertale of object shows if that makes sense.

theres just. so much i genuienly dont know how or where to end this off becuz the community is SO big and has been around for over a decade and im only really familar with tiny sections of it…

yeah. general takeaway for me when it comes to Everything as a whole is just like.. object shows. the osc. whatever. is just this big community made of passionate people who like to make things and want to share that and its!! cool and fun and despite it having all the typical fandom issues im really grateful that i discovered this stuff becuz it genuinelyhas changed my life and i dont know if i would be as into making art or if i would have this kinda attitude on art that i have now if it werent for the osc. a lot of shows are really silly and all of it looks. kinda stupid if youre not familar with them but they gneuinely hold this special place in my heart cuz… well im not entirely sure how to put it into words if im bring honest. they just feel very.. genuine to me. everyone in the community is so passionate and it just makes me really happy seeing people making things they love and enjoy regardless of how ‘stupid’ or ‘cringe’ or whatever the fuck it might seem if that makes sense =)

#wow that took. a long time im. not even sure if this is good #left out a Lot of shows im sorry…. wanted to keep it a bit more general/simple #truly breaks my heart to not be able to talk abt random shitty shows i love that only five other people care abt /silly #ask #therealsomajesticdonki #inquisitivewaltz.txt #thisis going in the talking tag i spent so much time on this and said So much hshhshhs #osc #yeah ill tag that too fuck it

[star-scrambled]

Did anyone ever talk about that one tweet from the Octonauts Twitter account confirming the misunderstanding of Kwazii being female at one point AND THEN implying that Meomi themselves actually like the trans hc??

#sometimes I go through all the octonauts social media’s for art n stuff #and i get TONS OF LITTLE LORE BITS N SURPRISES #BUT THIS TAKES THE CAKE??? #also THIS WAS IN 2011 THIS ISNT EVEN A RECENT THING #Meomi thank you for Everything #octonauts #vics silly brain zone #kwazii

[janiedean]

First off, I'm a HUGE fan of I'll be the frosting to your cupcake, one of the first fics I reread and a comfort fic staple of mine from the on.

Having said that, I recently learned English isnt your first language, and I'm shook. How do you write in such a flowy ample vocabulary precise english? Are you half British or sth? Have you live outside of Italy? What's your secret? What are your tips, please help a sister in need!

first of all thank you so much you're too kind ;v; and I'm really happy that it's been... ALMOST TEN YEARS and it still holds up ;v;

that said hahaha well I'M VERY HAPPY I HAVE SUCCESSFULLY MASTERED THE POWER OF NOT MAKING IT KNOWN ENGLISH IS NOT MY MOTHER TONGUE MUAHAHAH but in all seriousness:

no I'm not half british, my aunt was a high school english teacher but that was it and she definitely didn't speak english to me growing up beyond giving me the basics

no I haven't lived outside Italy just been on vacation in english speaking places so those two guesses aren't correct but

take into account that I'm 33 and I started learning english srsly when I was like twelve and I started writing in english when I was.... nineteen going on twenty so the way I write now is because I pretty much wrote in english nonstop since then, obviously whatever I wrote in 2007 had a worse vocabular/wasn't as good as it is now so count that a lot of that is practice

now basically i know it'll sound like ARE YOU SERIOUS but: I learned first translating songs by hand which meant I spent two years with a vocabulary translating bruce springsteen's and bon jovi's opera omnia that I had booklets for (YES THE INTERNET WAS ON 56K I HAD THE DAMNED LYRIC BOOKLETS RIP) and that.. I mean it didn't give me the widest vocab ever but it got me started, and then I jumped the bridge and started reading in english at.... eh I was 15 but like I got into stephen king, read a few of his books in italian, then got one I already had in italian in english for kicks and realized it... was better not translated so I swallowed the whole OH GOD I WON'T UNDERSTAND 1/5TH OF THE WORDS thing and went for it and like I can 100% assure you that if you get through the dark tower's second book and the indecent level of nyc slang in it you won't ever go back

(then being a masochist I went straight for steinbeck and if you manage the grapes of wrath at the level I was you're good X°D)

now like... that shows because every single time I take english tests like HOW DO YOU PRONOUNCE WORDS/WHAT IS YOUR WORDING CHOICE/WHAT DOES YOUR WRITING SOUND LIKE I without fail get as results that I pronounce like someone from new jersey/pennsylvania and I use words like someone from maine and that I read like king which... LIKE I LEARNED 95% OF MY ENGLISH on all of that so that makes sense

now the thing is after king I basically went like okay if that writer's english or writes in english I'm not checking the translations so basically I've read in english for twenty years and like... if you want to write you have to read and like I swear that when I was in high school I didn't need to open grammar books beyond the basics or actually study english at all bc having actually read stuff I like... having seen the word/expressions used on paper meant I knew how to use them so there was that but like the point is that if you read a lot your vocabulary automatically gets wider and if you see how published people you like write that helps you too because it gives you the background, makes you see how people break the rules etc

with this I mean... like you know everyone is like YOU HAVE TO WRITE SHORT SENTENCES IN ENGLISH UNLESS YOU'RE A CLASSICAL AUTHOR OR YOU'RE WRONG? okay like I always struggled with it bc I tend to be long-winded, then one day I ran into michael chabon who not only has the kind of refined vocab I can only dream of, but he also has no issue dropping six-lines long sentences (or a 12 pages stream of consciousness of a parrot without a dot bless him) and he won a pulitzer prize and while I am certainly not michael chabon and I can only dream of being 10% as good when it comes to that mix of craft, if he can do that then who stops me from six-lines sentences? yeah, no one XD

and I mean like... just to say one re how you re-elaborate things, the whole thing I do with using parentheses on another new line to say how characters are feeling or switch pov for a moment etc etc is a thing I absolutely lifted from king bc when I read him doing it I decided it was genius, but like at some point I started doubling or tripling the parentheses if I wanted to show what someone was thinking superficially and subconsciously which is a thing king doesn't do but at some point it happened and I liked it so I did it, and that's like the only conscious example I can give you but like you develop your style also based on what you like reading and what comes easy to you but that's things you find out through practice and again... if you like specific writers most likely it'll show up in your writing but that's fine everyone has their role models

also like... I personally don't gaf if supposed english tradition says I can't do something I'd do writing in italian ie abusing semicolons and long-winded sentences, like... if you're good at specific thing that your language allows and english doesn't don't gaf and write it in english anyway who cares

tldr the tips are: read a lot in english, consume a lot of media in english, practice a lot because you get better/get the hand of it with time (again if you read my lost fanfic on lj written in 2008-2011 it's nowhere near the same level as what I write now but not even the stuff I wrote in my spn days is at the level I am now etc), read a lot also in your own language or in any other you know, write as much as you can, if you feel like you're copying your favorite writer don't gaf and go ahead anyway at some point you'll sound like you and not like whoever your fave writer is and be constant because again 50% is reading a lot and 50% is practice, I know it sounds like the discovery of hot water but I swear I managed that without living anywhere else and only reading/writing/talking to people on the internet so... it does work X°D

<3

#ask post #walterwitch #janie rants

[yoramkelmer]

The rise and fall of the Twilight-Craze

Let me tell you about my first encounter with Twilight - it was a “read”-week in 6th or 7th grade, and I picked up a very new book at the library of my elementary school. So I started reading it. I remember reading the first chapters, but never finishing it. I remember how I found the protagonist to be very whiny, and very disrespectful too. 

Also, at this point I also didnt know that this would be a vampire-novel, as the backcover of the book - this being the first danish translation/edition of the novel - never mentioned it. 

Anyway, afterwards, I forgot about it pretty quickly. 

Flashforward to a year later. 

I´m over in Germany, visiting my grandmother, and I buy some books - the german translation of Twilight being among them - and then I start reading it later in the fall. While I did think that the name Stephenie Meyer sounded familiar, I could not remember why. At this point I should also mention that 6th and 7th grade was a very traumatising period for me, and I had by that point pretty much blacked much of that period out of my mind, focusing on the now and future. And yeah, I was 14, so there was still much to come. 

Anywway, as I start reading the novel later in the fall, I suddenly remembered that one book I never finished back in 6th or 7th grade - and am kinda amused. Yeah, anyway, I still found Bella Swan to be a very whiny girl, and I actually liked the novel, and honestly did not think that much about it afterwards. Though I did learn not long after that a movie would come out later that year, I - while I was looking forward to it - did not imagine that it would start a big craze, that I later learned from the Wikipedia article of the South Park episode The Ungroundable to be named “The Twilight Craze”. 

I enjoyed the movie, actually - I watched it with my best friend (who went on to become the biggest Twilight fan I know, at least for as long as the craze lasted) and it is a memory that I like to think back on. I still think that both Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson did a good job in these movies - though more on that later. 

So, flash forward to the fall of 2009, where I am in Thailand with my parents. On the way to Thailand - as we went through Germany -  I bought the subsequent books New Moon and Eclipse. I read these books very quickly, and my mom as well. 

New Moon - and I´m talking about the novel here - did introduce some rather interesting ideas, such as the Volturi. One thing, however, already stuck me back then - it was the fact that Meyer completely distorted the actual folklore of an actual native american tribe, the Quileutes, for her own way, and it seemed really disrespectful back then already. And as for the Volturi, despite being mentioned early on, we didn´t really get that much from them - though as for the climax of the novel, I was pretty disturbed by the fact that the Volturi let in hundreds of tourists into their palace just to eat them after closing the doors. While that scenario is already pretty much horrifying, what really disturbed me was that Bella - and by extension, Stephenie Meyer herself - immediately forgot about it after it happened and moved on with the plot. That, and another thing - are we really gonna accept it as okay that one from Jacobs tribe physically hurt and mutilated his wifes face after wolfing out, because he feels sorry and he forgave her? It already seemed really wrong back then. 

What I also noticed was the fact that Bella Swan essentially only hung out with Jacob so she could play with his feelings, and so she could get into dangerous situations so she could get these hallucinations of Edward. With that said - I also could not really see what was so special about the relationship between Bella and Edward. 

Then I read Eclipse - and one thing stuck out to me there: it´s the fact that the mentioned backstories of the individual Cullens - Carlisles past with the Volturi, Rosalie seeking out and killing her rapists, Jaspers backstory from the american civil war (as I later learned from Das Mervins sporkings, she got a lot of stuff wrong there, to put it mildly), or how Alice was abandoned by her family in an asylum and pretended she was dead, where she ultimately got turned - all of these backstories are a hundred times way more interesting than the perks of being Bella Swan and her love life! 

Also, I immediately knew that the vampire army was a work of Victoria, and that it was to kill Bella - only upon reading the sporkings by Das Mervin did I learn that it was supposed to be a “twist”. 

On the way back from Thailand I bought Breaking Dawn shortly before leaving Germany, but I never finished it - you know why? Because some of my classmembers spilled the tea on the spoiler that Jacob imprints on Bellas daughter. I was just grossed out. I later learned that the book is what turned many fans off Twilight - and the imprinting thing was one of the reasons why, in many cases. 

Anyway, then a few weeks after returning from Thailand, I went in to see New Moon with two of my best friends, and it is a memory that I cherish very much. 

And that was the time when the Twilight Craze really, really went off - with all the cringeworthy “Are you Team Edward, or Team Jacob?” stuff, and how out of touch with reality some of the fangirls seemed - there were apparently some who really believed that Edward Cullen exists, and so much more. I still didnt think too much about it, as I had other things to look for. 

Though - despite liking the movies and the books at the time - I really, really enjoyed a lot of the parodies on the Twilight Craze, like this one from Smosh. The thing is, that Twilight became the probably most parodied thing in the 2009-2010 period. And that may have been one of the things that killed the craze - but more on that later. 

Then, in the summer of 2010 - one of the best summers of my life - I was in Miami with my family. And then my best friend and I got to watch Eclipse in a gigantic cinema in a very big mall in Miami Beach - that was unforgettable. And I also remember that I wasnt the only one who laughed over Taylor Lautners overacting. Good to know. 

During that same summer, I remember then seeing a new book by Stephenie Meyer in the bookstores - “The Short Second Life of Bree Tanner”. As this was before my friend and I saw the movie, I myself did not think that much about it; but I then later realised that Bree was the girl killed by the Volturi at the end of Eclipse, and that the novel - as the title already states - was about her time with the army of newborns. That sounded like an actual interesting plot. Shortly before watching Eclipse, the trailer for “Vampires Suck” came out - and the trailer was very funny, way more funny than the actual movie. 

So....Eclipse was a huge hit that summer. But you know what that also was? The end of the Twilight Craze itself. In fact, it can also be compared with another contemporary hit of the 2009-2010 period - Avatar. While that was the biggest hit of the winter of 2009-2010, as soon as spring started, everyone forgot about it. And while Eclipse itself got a lot of mixed reviews, like the preceding movies of the franchise, it simply was the end of the craze itself. 

I think here are some of the factors:

Twilight was pretty much EVERYWHERE in the media in 2009-2010, not only from advertisement, product placements, and posters, but also from parodies, not to mention how often Twilight was mentioned in actual news broadcast. In other words, people got tired of it - not just the people who werent even fans of the franchise in the first place, but also more moderate fans, like I considered myself then. And yeah - now thinking back on it, I was also pretty tired of seeing Twilight everywhere even before Eclipse was released in the cinemas. 

And another thing is this: The Second Life of Bree Tanner. While the novel was released in early June of 2010, mere weeks before the movie came out, it was very bestselling, because of the Twilight Craze. And the reason why it was released was most likely because even Stephenie Meyer herself had a feeling that the craze soon would end, and had to publish something Twilight-related in advance, so she could be talked about again. Officially, the novella started as a short story to tie in with her illustrated guide for Twilight. 

I bought the book later that summer while in Germany - and I found it not very well written, and forgot about it very shortly afterwards. Even my friend found it forgettable. I recently read the sporking of the book on Das Mervin to be reminded of what actually happened - and boy, does it suck! And here is my point - many Twilight fans probably realised with that book that Stephenie Meyer isnt that good a writer. (A lot of people had the same reactions to “The Host” - including me, who never finished the novel because of that)

And then, as soon as the summer of 2010 was over, Twilight was over. People had enough. 

I know that the final film was - because of Harry Potter - split in two parts (a decision that was continued when The Hunger Games were made into movies, and a decision that ultimately killed the Divergent franchise), and was released in the winter of 2011 and 2012. I watched both of them - and I was immediately struck by this in 2012: While there of course were trailers and posters for these films, there was simply not the same exposure to the franchise as back in 2009-2010. 

And by the time of the release of Breaking Dawn part 2 in the winter of 2012, I had already been redpilled regarding Mary Sues, and had a field day of counting all the Mary Sue points in the movies. 

Yeah, Bella Swan is one of the biggest Mary Sues in existence, and was created as a way of Stephenie Meyer wanting to live out an idealised version of her highschool years. 

That, and Stephenie Meyer isnt that great a writer - just read the sporking on Das Mervin. 

During the reading of the sporkings, I also realised the way how Meyer demonises every blonde - from Lauren to Rosalie, and how Leah Clearwater is demonised for being an independent woman who doesnt bow down to Bella Sue and who actually does something, unlike Bella Sue. 

Now, onto the thing with Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson. Both are very good actors, and I think it is sad to see how haunted they were in the past decade of Twilight. Many have accused Stewart of being a bad actress because of Twilight (not to mention that they haven´t seen her brilliant performance in Speak) - I disagree. Kristen Stewart showed what a spoiled, ungrateful and dull Sue Bella is, and Pattinson what a creepy, controllable Stalker Edward is. And I´m now especially happy to see how especially Pattinson is recovering now, as Kristen Stewart did get to prove herself in movies like Camp X-Ray. 

Anyway, that was my rant on the Twilight Craze. 

#Twilight #The Twilight Craze #The Twilight Saga #The Twilight Series #Stephenie Meyer #Mary Sue #Mary Sues #2009 #2010 #Eclipse #New Moon #bad writing #Kristen Stewart #Robert Pattinson #Taylor Lautner #Julia Jones #Leah Clearwater #Volturi #Bella Swan #Edward Cullen #Jacob Black #late 2000s #early 2010s #retro #nostalgia #Team Edward #Team Jacob

[insanityclause]

Zawe Ashton is sorry that she is tired. In her dressing room at Manhattan's Jacobs Theatre, at what would be the end of a working day for many, she still has to go over last night’s notes with her director Jamie Lloyd, and get into hair and make-up. Within hours, she will hit the stage for another sold-out night of her Broadway run in Betrayal, the Harold Pinter revival, which will make her a New Yorker until the end of the year.

“I feel like I'm going mad, but I think I'm really into New York. [When I speak], I can already hear my American upward inflections!” she giggles. The play, which also stars Charlie Cox and Tom Hiddleston, has come to New York after a sold-out turn in London in a year that has cemented 35-year-old Ashton's transition from emerging ingenue to bonafide leading lady. In person, she's warm, wickedly funny, and whip-smart — a combination that goes some way to explaining how she's built a career not just in front of the camera, but as a writer, director, playwright, too. Just don't call her an overnight success — it's been nearly 30 years in the making.

Ashton was born and raised in Hackney, a culturally diverse part of East London at the forefront of the city's gentrification. "Cut me open, and I do bleed Hackney," Ashton says. “I remember when cab drivers wouldn’t even go there but for me, there was just local people establishing community and establishing identity. It was multiculturalism, it was biracial, it was anarchy.”

She grew up the eldest child of an Ugandan mother and English father. She describes her younger self as a hyper child. “I just wanted constant stimulation.” Her mother, busy with three kids, enrolled Ashton in the Anna Scher Theatre, an affordable drama class, whose notable alumni ranges from Hollywood crossovers Daniel Kaluuya and Kathy Burke, to Eastenders favourites Sid Owen, Patsy Palmer, and Natalie Cassidy.

“I went in, and there were like three or four baskets on a tiny little stage. One said wigs, one said hats, one said costumes, and I thought to myself, 'I’m going to love this.'" Ashton went on to spend 14 years with the company. "Every Friday night and every Saturday afternoon for 14 years! I think back now, what a disciplined young person that I was. I think I’ve always needed something like that to keep me anchored.”

Small roles in Game On and The Demon Headmaster followed, along with appearances in British staples like The Bill, Casualty, and Holby City, but her success led to bullying at her north London school. “I was different from others at a time when you're supposed to just be blending into that wall,” she says. If there's one thing that's clear, it's that Ashton doesn't do blending in. "I never understood this thing of finding yourself or finding the truth — I couldn’t give a sh*t about the truth," she says.

Earlier this year, she released Character Breakdown, a book about her experiences as actor and the challenge of darting between make-believe and everyday life. "I've never bought into the idea that there is this one self," she says. "I started acting as a 6-year-old child, when my brain was still extremely fragile. I didn’t have hope in hell if I didn’t want to have fractured selves — that moment was over by the time I’d finished my first day on a film set."

Ashton's breakout role didn't come until years after that first day. In 2011, when she was 27, she debuted her role as the hilarious and sensational Vod in Channel 4's now cult classic, Fresh Meat. “When I got it, I had just done an independent movie called Dreams Of A Life,” she recalls. “That was a one-two punch. I had my independent film world covered and I suddenly had this cult TV world covered, and that was it. My head was above the parapet, and things have just been on the up since then."

Like many actors of her generation, she's only down with the "up" when it's about the work. "I’ve never been bothered about fame," she says. "Even when I was at Anna Scher Theatre, you were never allowed to use the words 'star' or 'fame,' they were like swear words. I want to be a successful actor, never a famous star. Because one is an organic meal that will sustain you, and the other is toxic.”

That does complicate things, because whether she's conscious of it or not, Ashton is a star. Her most recent work has seen her share the screen with Toni Collette in the BBC drama Wanderlust, about a therapist trying to save her fraught relationship with her husband,  played by Steven Mackintosh. She also had a lead role in Netflix’s Velvet Buzzsaw, a quirky thriller set in the contemporary art world where she plays Josephina, the object of affection, alongside an idiosyncratic art critic called Morf, played by Jake Gyllenhaal. Her wattage is rising, and unsurprisingly, the designers have come calling. Erdem, Mulberry, Regina Pyo, and Roksanda Illincic all want to dress her, but as Ashton discloses, the style part doesn't always come naturally.

“People talk about ‘effortless style’ but effortless is so far away from any of my experiences of that sort of thing." She now works with stylist, art director, and brand consultant Steph Wilson for her big appearances. "She's not a celebrity stylist, which seems to be a very different breed of person," Ashton explains, "but my stylist is a big reason I am able to cope with events." Their first collaboration — a voluminous, tiered Stella McCartney gown that Ashton wore on the 2016 Olivier's Red Carpet — set the tone in their relationship. "We affectionately called [it] the lampshade dress," Ashton recalls. "It was a complete risk, and a risk that I'd been told again and again and again not to take. 'Don’t go there, you're not well known, you're not famous, unless you’re famous you shouldn’t wear things like this.' I just said, 'I want to dress like the artist I feel,' and that was that."

Ashton might sound assertive, but she swears she is only now coming into her own. “How long have we got to talk about women of colour and imposter syndrome,” Ashton asks, now in her hair and make-up prep. “It’s a real thing, and many people have it. It’s, I think, a particular characteristic of the overachiever. Because you're bottomless, you never think what you’ve achieved is enough. There are lots of little dots, as I approach my 30th year as an actor, that I'm sort of really looking to connect so I can move on to the next stage of my life.”

Part of that next stage is taking up more space. "When you work in film sets, when you’re working on projects that are male dominated, you are always treated as the last priority," she says carefully. "There have been times when, like in sex scenes or whatever, I’ve just been expected to get on with it. No conversation, no time wasting, you're just supposed to minimise your space, and let the money-making industry crack on because time is money." Not any more. "I'm going to call abuse when it’s abuse, and I'm going to call micro-aggression when it’s micro-aggression," she says of on-set behaviour she once might have let slide.

In October, in both Hackney and New York, she will stage For All The Women Who Thought They Were Mad, a play she wrote some 10 years ago when she part of the Royal Court Young Writers group. The play uses statistics to platform the cultural biases at work in medical institutions in Britain that are specifically stacked against women from the African diaspora. “Women being over medicated, unnecessarily being sectioned into their families, losing their jobs. It’s all really shocking, so I wanted to write something for all the women I’ve known [who] thought they were alone. It’s taken so long to get off the ground because it was considered an exposé by every theatrical institution in London, and [I'm] so glad we are doing it," she adds. "A lot of women for a long time have been told to find their voices, but I don’t agree. We have voices. We just need a platform. And we need the words."

One word Ashton is thinking about a lot these days is "motherhood." “I would like to have a baby,” she says slowly. "I’ve never said that before, but women never say it." Despite various rumours about her love life, she emphasises that the baby is a goal, not a current reality. "It's not in the works, and it's not being planned," she says. "There's absolutely not one single detail that I can mention, but the next thing on my agenda is building towards that stage, and I feel very proud of that."

Ashton is aware that the path in that direction will be unreasonably complicated. "The widespread shame of motherhood is criminal, and it needs to stop," she says. "The world can never improve if you disrespect the people that bring life." Still, Ashton is rolling up her sleeves. "I feel like this career has so many connections to my childhood desires, and now I want to figure out what my adult ones are.”

#risking linking this #make of this what you will though

[acidmatze]

Oh holy shit there will be a Gothic Remake for the PS5?????? From now on i cant spend any more money than i absolutely have to just so i can afford buying it for myself for Christmas

The question is.. how can i do that without my brother knowing about it....? Explanation and rant under the cut

Ever since I was tiny with the one exception being my first computer cuz I didnt had the money back then to afford one so lucky me had our parents buy it for me i bought my own stuff from my own money. My first Ps1 i bought from my cousin for 30 bucks (i sincerely hope in retrospect my parents gave him more money for it without me noticing cuz 30 bucks is way too little for a good console and 3 games) My brother complained and nagged how come I get a Playstation and he doesnt?

One year later (i was about 11) I got the Ps2 for christmas with some games... and Eye Toy. Ofc Eye Toy. Everyone had Eye Toy. My brother complained. How come I get a playstation 2 and he doesnt? I bought the PS2 from my own money. My parents got the games.

I got a new computer. My brother complained

Around 2011, another new computer. My brother called me to complain. He nagged. He yelled. He guilt tripped. How come I get a new computer and he still has to use his old sucky piece of shit? I bought the computer. With my own damn money. I decided I had enough money saved and wanna play new games also everyone says Win 7 is good so yeah. I had dad bring me to the store and bought a new computer. My old win xp computer was 10 years old at that point. I think I deserved that treat. (i think it was second hand when i got it....? I dont know anymore. My first PC was second hand for sure though)

Finally bought a Ps3 in 2014. Im fucking 22 at that point. My brother calls to chew me out how DARE I get a Ps3 when he didnt even have a ps2? Like thats my problem???? I wanted a Ps3 so i went and bought one. From my OWN DAMN MONEY that i SAVED UP from my FUCKING JOB. (office stuff during rehab. boring. but hey money!)

In early 2016 i buy an actual gaming computer. My most expensive thing i ever owned at that point. (it still is. this computer is the most expensive thing i ever had) Again, from my own damn money. My brother calls me to chew me out. Then calls our parents to whine about how i dont baby him and wont give him my old computer.

Late 2017 i move out. Buy everything from my own fucking money. Ofc i get a phone call. How dare i get shiny new furniture when he has to live in a dumpster? Yeah. “Get”. As if i just.. found them on the street or some shit. He always said “Get.” Not “bought”. And then he heard about my TV. A smart TV. Because thats almost the only TV you can buy in stores anymore. And boy did he throw a fit about it. HOW DARE I have a nice TV when he still has one from the early 2000s. For nearly an hour he chewed me out and guilt tripped me. For having a fucking TV. That I bought from my own fucking money. As if I somehow... tied him to the couch so he cant go out and get a new TV for himself. As if its my fault he buys random bullshit instead of saving and getting himself a nice thing.

And then ofc he flipped his shit again when he heard i bought a ps4. HOW DARE I HOW DARE I, an at this point fucking 26 year old adult man, buy myself a console He Doesnt Have. Isnt it enough I have an apartment and “fancy” new furniture and a TV he doesnt have? How dare i buy things I want without asking him first. I should know how miserable he is with his gf he actually hates but thats okay because she hates him too at this point and so does her son and a shitty run-down apartment he never cleans and I SHOULD GIVE HIM MY TV. The ONLY WAY to “make up” for this is me forking over MY TV for some reason. Yeah. No.

I need to add that roughly after I turned 12 my wishes for birthdays and christmas got “too complicated” so i bought my presents myself and got like 80% of the price back in cash from my parents. He didnt had to do that. Never. Still doesnt has to. He tells mom what he wants for christmas and she gets it for him. I tell mom what i want for my birthday and she says “Yeah you know how amazon works” I havent complained about this One Single Time. It just recently occured to me that that mightly be slightly unfair but whatever. Its too late to make a ruckus about it now. And especially i never complained to my brother about it. I never called him two days after christmas about how dare he get what he wanted for christmas, which is usually about 150€ worth of stuff cuz thats the budget my parents set for us. (my stuff costs less mostly. Dont think i get one cent more than what I paid for on Amazon. If it only ends up costing 50 bucks thats “my own fault” then. If my brothers stuff costs less than 150€ he gets the rest in cash) I never called him to whine and complain about how unfair it is and how mom constantly forks money over to him and somehow he still never buys anything he actually Needs and doesnt repair his car or gets a new TV or whatever. And how he TOTALLY should just give me something to “make up for it”.

So yeah if he finds out on christmas that i “got” a ps5 he will absolutely scream and yell at me and throw a fit right then and there and DEMAND i give him my ps4 because the ps5 is backwards compatible anyway, or some bullshit.

I know some siblings used to run to their parents and complain how unfair it is that their sibling wont give something to them. Usually the sibling doing the complaining is younger. Maybe about 5 or 6 while the older sibling is 10. Or something

But did I mention that my brother is 42?

#blablabla #oh boy wow that got long #thats my whole lifestory right here and there lol #and my therapist wonders why i never say anything positive about my brother

[templeofshame]

i thought that when people say they broke up they meant they did somewhere in 2011 and thats why they had that gap where they werent really a duo, they had time to rebuild a good frienship and understand why things didnt work. thats what the past tense in dans mean. he meant it was obvious they were in 2009-2011. of course this is probably bullshit but isnt there 1% of possibility ? also that can be a au for a fanfic lmao.

That can be an AU for a fanfic, sure; I haven’t heard that for a theory but obviously the “2012 breakup” is a popular phanti myth and so I focus #justexthings primarily on things they’ve done in the past few years. I'm honestly not sure what you’re referring to in 2011 in terms of a break for them to rebuild; do you mean before they moved in together? And before they started Super Amazing Project? I wasn’t in the phandom in 2011 but it seems like a lot of relationship progress toward joint branding and really combining their lives.

But regardless of 2011, my #justexthings interest is in pointing out all the recent things that remind us that their millionnaire lives together don’t make any sense through the lens of even an extremely amiable exboyfriend relationship.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

If there’s one thing the Democratic establishment is good at, it’s panicking. And the latest reason for panic among Democratic insiders is Bernie Sanders. According to a New York Times article from earlier this month, the prospect of a Sanders nomination is “spooking establishment-aligned Democrats, some of whom are worried that his nomination could lure a third-party centrist into the field.” It is “also creating tensions about what, if anything, should be done to halt Mr. Sanders,” the article says.

Should Democratic insiders really be worried that Sanders will be nominated and cost them an election against President Trump that they’d otherwise win? I’m here to make the case that they shouldn’t be, or at least not yet. Instead, Sanders-related panic is premature for at least three reasons:

While Sanders is one of perhaps a dozen candidates with a plausible shot at the nomination, the field is fairly wide open, and it’s too early to say how formidable he is.

It’s also too early to conclude very much about Sanders’s “electability” against Trump, especially in comparison to other Democrats.

Finally, even if they wanted to stop Sanders, it’s too early for the party establishment to know how to go about doing that — without more input from rank-and-file voters, any move meant to hinder Sanders could backfire.

Each one of these claims could be the subject of a long post — so I just want to focus on the first one for today and leave the others for later.

To be clear, I think Sanders can win the Democratic nomination. He’s probably the 3rd- or 4th- most likely nominee, in my estimation — slightly behind Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and roughly tied with Pete Buttigieg, but ahead of everyone else. All of these candidates (and others such as Elizabeth Warren and Beto O’Rourke) have their own assets and liabilities, so I wouldn’t go to the mat if you put them in a different order.

But sometimes, I get the sense from Sanders backers — or from other election analysts who look at the polls a little differently than I do, or from traditional reporters — that they think Sanders’s strength in the polls is being ignored. Empirically, however, Sanders’s position in the polls is not all that strong; it’s consistent with sometimes winning the nomination but usually not.

Candidates in Sanders’s position in the polls have a mediocre track record

According to our polling tracker, nine polling organizations have released national polls of the Democratic primary since O’Rourke declared for the race last month.1 On average, Sanders has 21 percent of the vote in the latest polls from each of these firms.2 His polls in Iowa are a bit worse than that — he’s averaging 18 percent in the last five polls there.3 New Hampshire is a mixed bag, with Sanders at 30 percent in one recent poll but just 16 percent in another one.

How Sanders fares in recent national and early-state polls

Most recent poll from each polling firm in each state since Beto O’Rourke’s entry into the race on March 14*

National Pollster Dates Sanders Morning Consult 4/15 – 4/21 24% Change Research 4/12 – 4/15 20 USC Dornsife/LA Times 3/15 – 4/15 16 Emerson College 4/11 – 4/14 29 HarrisX 4/5 – 4/6 19 Quinnipiac University 3/21 – 3/25 19 McLaughlin & Associates 3/20 – 3/24 17 Fox News 3/17 – 3/20 23 CNN/SSRS 3/14 – 3/17 20 Average 21 Iowa Pollster Dates Sanders Gravis Marketing 4/17 – 4/18 19% Monmouth University 4/4 – 4/9 16 David Binder Research 3/21 – 3/24 17 Emerson College 3/21 – 3/24 24 Public Policy Polling 3/14 – 3/15 15 Average 18 New Hampshire Pollster Dates Sanders University of New Hampshire 4/10 – 4/18 30% Saint Anselm College 4/3 – 4/8 16 South Carolina Pollster Dates Sanders Change Research 3/31 – 4/4 14% Nevada Pollster Dates Sanders Emerson College 3/28 – 3/30 23%

* Where the pollster conducted versions of the poll with and without Joe Biden, the version with Biden is used.

Source: Polls

Across the board, those numbers are well down from 2016 — when Sanders got 43 percent of the vote nationally, along with 50 percent in Iowa and 60 percent in New Hampshire.

You could take a glass-half-full view of this for Sanders, however. Sure, he isn’t getting as many votes as last time around, but you wouldn’t expect him to in a field that already includes 17 major candidates, rather than just Sanders and Hillary Clinton. And 20 percent or 30 percent of the vote could still be good enough for first place in the early states.

Historically, though, candidates who are polling at only about 20 percent nationally despite the near-universal name recognition that Sanders enjoys don’t have a great track record. From our research on the history of past primary polls, I found 15 candidates from past nomination processes who, like Sanders, (i) polled at an average of between 15 percent and 25 percent4 in national polls in the first six months of the year before the Iowa caucuses5 and (ii) who had high or very high name recognition.6

Candidates in Sanders’s polling position mostly lost

Candidates with high name recognition and 15 percent to 25 percent of the vote in early national polls

Year Party Candidate Poll Avg. Off. ran for Pres.? Had Run For Pres./ V.P. Before? Won Nomination? 2016 R Jeb Bush 16% ✓ 2012 R Mitt Romney 20 ✓ ✓ ✓ 2008 D Barack Obama 23 ✓ ✓ 2008 R John McCain 21 ✓ ✓ ✓ 2004 D Joe Lieberman 19 ✓ ✓ 2000 R Elizabeth Dole 18 ✓ 1988 D Jesse Jackson 15 ✓ ✓ 1988 R Bob Dole 22 ✓ ✓ 1984 D John Glenn 24 ✓ 1980 R Gerald Ford 19 ✓ 1976 D George Wallace 19 ✓ ✓ 1976 D Hubert Humphrey 15 ✓ 1976 R Ronald Reagan 22 ✓ ✓ 1972 D Ted Kennedy 24 1972 D Hubert Humphrey 24 ✓ ✓

Three of these candidates won their nominations; the other 12 lost. That would imply that Sanders has around a 20 percent chance of winning the nomination, about where he is in betting markets.

Of course, you could look at that list and debate which candidates are and aren’t truly similar to Sanders. To be that well-known so early in the primary process, you generally need to either have (i) run for president or vice president before (e.g., Mitt Romney or Joe Lieberman), or (ii) be related to someone else who did (e.g., Jeb Bush), or (iii) be famous for reasons not directly related to politics (e.g., John Glenn), or (iv) be a political celebrity (e.g., Barack Obama). If you look only at the candidates who — like Sanders — had run for president or VP before, 2 out of 10 won their nominations (John McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012), so that’s still 20 percent.

There are other ways to slice and dice the list. Candidates polling like Sanders have done better in recent elections. And the list includes some candidates who never officially declared for president (e.g., Gerald Ford in 1980), so arguably, they should be excluded. If you look only at candidates who at some point officially ran for president, 25 percent (3 of 12 ) won. On the other hand, there’s also an argument for including the candidates who didn’t officially run since some of them were de facto candidates who lost in the “invisible primary” and bowed out before anyone voted to avoid embarrassment.

Achieving a delegate majority could be hard for Sanders

You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list — Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 — aren’t good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a “The Party Decides” standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.

In many respects, however, Sanders is more similar to Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, George Wallace in 1972 and 1976 or Ron Paul in 2012, candidates who represented important constituencies within their respective parties but who didn’t have an obvious way to unite the rest of the party behind them or to win a delegate majority.

At times, Sanders’s strategists actually seem to be leaning into the strategy of being a factional candidate. The Sanders campaign may have all kinds of reasons to feel aggrieved by how the party establishment has treated it, especially when it reads articles like the one in The New York Times that suggest the establishment is out to get it again! Nonetheless, the campaign hasn’t sought to mend fences when conflicts have arisen this year. Instead, Sanders aides told The Atlantic’s Edward-Isaac Dovere that they think they can win the nomination with as little as a 30 percent plurality of delegates. That’s a risky strategy since it would necessarily entail a contested convention, where party insiders would play an outsized role. Nor would Sanders, a 77-year-old white man, reflect the various constituencies of the Democratic Party (and the demographics of the delegates themselves) as well as someone like Harris might.

But isn’t Sanders well-liked by a broad spectrum of Democrats — even if he isn’t necessarily their first choice? That isn’t entirely clear, either. Rather, his favorability ratings with Democratic voters have varied a lot from poll to poll. Here’s a table, for instance, comparing favorability ratings in the three most recent national or early-state polls where I could find them: Morning Consult’s national poll, Monmouth University’s poll of Iowa, and Saint Anselm College’s poll of New Hampshire. (Note to pollsters: Please ask favorability questions of your respondents! It would be helpful to have more than three recent polls to go by.)

Sanders’s favorability ratings are good but not great

Average of favorability ratings among Democratic voters in recent national, Iowa and New Hampshire polls

Morning Consult: U.S. Monmouth: Iowa Saint Anselm: N.H. Average Candidate Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. Ratio Buttigieg 38% 9% 45% 9% 42% 6% 42% 8% 5.2 Biden 75 14 78 14 70 18 74 15 4.8 Harris 49 12 61 13 54 10 55 12 4.7 Booker 44 12 54 16 56 11 51 13 3.9 O’Rourke 47 11 60 13 46 17 51 14 3.7 Sanders 75 16 67 26 67 25 70 22 3.1 Klobuchar 28 13 51 10 31 13 37 12 3.1 Castro 28 12 36 9 24 8 29 10 3.0 Inslee 17 7 26 5 10 6 18 6 2.9 Warren 55 19 67 20 58 30 60 23 2.6 Hickenlooper 16 9 32 8 15 10 21 9 2.3 Delaney 14 9 31 12 17 7 21 9 2.2 Gillibrand 32 14 37 17 33 18 34 16 2.1 Gabbard 16 11 29 13 16 13 20 12 1.6

Only candidates whose favorability was asked about in all three polls are included in the table.

Morning Consult poll was conducted April 15-21, Monmouth University poll conducted April 4-9 and Saint Anselm College conducted April 3-8.

Sources: Polls

From what data we do have, however, Sanders’s favorability ranks somewhere in the middle of the Democratic pack. While Sanders does well in the Morning Consult poll, he has relatively high negatives in the polls of Iowa and New Hampshire. On average between the polls, Sanders has a favorable rating of 70 percent and an unfavorable rating of 22 percent, or a ratio of 3.1 to 1. That’s good, but not great. Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar are much less well-known than Sanders but have about the same favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among voters who know them. And Buttigieg, Biden, Harris, Cory Booker and O’Rourke have better ratios than Sanders.7

So while Sanders currently trails only Biden in first-choice preferences, it’s not clear who would win a one-on-one race between, say, Sanders and Booker, or Sanders and Buttigieg, especially once Booker and Buttigieg became as well-known as Sanders is. Buttigieg in particular is already running close to Sanders in some recent polls (though not others) despite considerably lower name recognition.

Learning the lessons of 2016 — or overlearning them?

But doesn’t all of this sound awfully familiar? The chances of a candidate who polls fairly well are dismissed by the media on the theory that he lacks support from party elites and/or because supposedly he’s a factional candidate who won’t improve his support beyond his 20 percent or 25 percent base?

We made all of those arguments in 2016 about Donald Trump, about which — of course — we were pretty darned wrong.

The parallels between Sanders in 2020 and Trump in 2016 aren’t perfect, by any means. Sanders isn’t exactly a traditional politician, but he’s much closer to being one than a reality-TV star like Trump is. Trump initially polled poorly but surged in the summer of 2015, whereas Sanders started out polling well from the get-go.8 Trump (after his surge) was polling in first place, whereas Sanders is second behind Biden. Perhaps most importantly, Republicans use a winner-take-all system in some of their primaries, especially later on the race, so winning 30 or 35 or 40 percent of the vote could allow Trump to win a preponderance of delegates. The Democratic system is more proportional, so the same vote totals for Sanders might result in a contested convention.

Still, the cases are similar enough that Democrats see the parallels — “a political scenario all too reminiscent of how Mr. Trump himself seized the Republican nomination in 2016” is how the Times article put it. Reporters and people analyzing the campaigns see the parallels too, and that undoubtedly makes them reluctant to downplay Sanders’s chances — all the more so since Sanders himself did better in 2016 than most people (myself included) expected.

But our goal here at FiveThirtyEight is not to make predictions that minimize the amount of crap we get from readers. Instead, it’s to use data and history to zoom out and provide as much perspective as possible. Over the long run, that philosophy has worked pretty well. And over the long run, and across a larger sample — not just the recency bias brought about by 2016 — candidates in Sanders’s position have been fairly big underdogs against their respective fields,9 whether on the basis of polling alone or polling plus other factors. That doesn’t mean Sanders can’t win or won’t win, or that his support is only about name recognition. But in a field this wide open, and so early on in the race, he’s equivalent to a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed in the 68-team NCAA basketball tournament: about as likely (arguably) as anyone else to win it all, but still a clear underdog against the field.

Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

[m1sjj3iq-blog]

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[check-comma-please]

SO I DID A THING…

This is basically a timeline of major events in OMGCP That I created, at first to help myself, but then I decided “why not post it? Other people may find it helpful”. Not going to lie, the Check Please timeline can be a little confusing, considering the comic is still taking place in 2016. Obvs that’s not Ngozi’s fault bc the updates take time, so it’s understandable that the comic isnt present day… anyways I’ve done extensive research on the following information. And I’m like 95% sure that it’s all correct but some things are speculation and assumptions. I’ve used blog posts, tweets, and the actual comic to figure out the below information. It’s not a big deal and maybe it doesn’t matter to you, but idk it really interests me and maybe it will interest others????? Like I said before, a lot of this is speculation so FEEL FREE to correct me on any false info. ALSO!!! If any of you have links to the canon confirmation of some of the things that I’m not 100% sure about, PLEASE link them to me. FINALLY, if anyone wants me to link them to some of my references for this, then just ask and I’ll be more than happy to send you them. So with that: these are (what I consider) to be the major events in the time line of Check Please! Hope I got it all right!

**Edit!!!!: I messed this up originally. I screwed up some birth years and now I’m back to fix them. So don’t be alarmed if you reblogged this and now its different. Im like 99% sure that I’m changing it to all true info.

Birthdays

Jack- 1990 (birthday august 3)

Kent Parson-1990 (birthday july 4)

Holster-1991 (birthday unknown)

Shitty-1992 (birthday dec 19)

Ransom-1993 (birthday march 28. I am very confused because according to the wiki, ransom was born in 1994. However, a tweet from Bitty on March 28th, 2015 says “happy 22 birthday rans!” which would place his birth year in 93. Also a very early piece of artwork says that ransom is 20 in the beginning of his sophomore year, which further indicates being born in 93. Long story short? Don’t believe everything you read on the wiki)

Lardo- 1994??? (birthday unknown but according to the wiki, Lardo is currently 23 years old as of April 1st, 2018 (when I’m writing this). However the wiki can not always be trusted.  We know her birthday is around Ransoms but we don’t know when exactly. Her and Rans has a combined birthday party (Keagster) on Easter Sunday 2015 (which technically was April 5, 2015….Idk if I should be that technical but whatever) so I’m kind of assuming that her birthday is around Late March/Early April….as for her birth year? All we are told is that she is a sophomore with rans and holster. so I’m assuming that she was born in 94 because its the easiest assumption to make, but i could always be wrong)

Bitty: 1995 (birthday may 5)

Nursey: 1996 (birthday feb 14. There is not a ton of supporting info that suggests Nursey was born in 1996. The wiki’s reference is a tweet from Ngozi, replying to a private account so I cannot view the tweet. Basically I don’t have a great argument for Nursey being born in 1996 so once again, I’m ASSUMING. Please send me any info that you have on Nurseys birth)

Dex: 1995??? (Birthday October 26/27, I’ve seen both dates. However I’ve yet to find ANY canon confirmation that either of these dates are his birthday. Everyone just kind of says that its his birthday?? Idk if anyone has canon info or something please link me to it because I can literally not find anything about Dex’s birth. Also its been pointed out to me that he could be born late in 1995, however I originally assumed he was born late in 1996. It depends on wether he was held back a year or pushed forward.I have no clue it honestly could be either.)

Chowder: 1995?? 1996?? (October 11. I’ve seen people on tumblr saying it’s on the 10?? Idk according to Bitty’s tweets its on the 11th. Also the birth years?? Its the same situation as Dex… He could either be born in 95 and held back a year, or 96 and pushed foward )

2008: Jack and Kent are both 18, playing in the Q

Spring 2009: Jack and Kent win memorial cup. Jack overdoses. Kent is drafted to the Aces.

Fall 2009-Spring 2011: Jack is in rehab/ coaching peewee/taking SATs

Spring 2011: Aces win cup( Ngozi tweeted saying that Jack enters Samwell after the Aces win the cup, If Jack graduates in 2015, then he entered SMH in Fall 2011, therefore the Aces winning in Spring 2011)

Fall 2011:Jack enters samwell (21) Along with shitty (18, turning 19 in dec) (grad class 2015)

Spring 2012: SMH is in the ECAC and are knocked out at some point after the first round. Jack is named captain for the 2012-13 season

Fall 2012: Ransom (19) , Holster (21), and Lardo (18) all enter samwell (grad class 2016)

Fall 2012-Spring 2013: Now this is all kind of fuzzy. Sometime between the Aces winning the cup(Spring 2011) and before Bitty enters Samwell (Fall 2013), Kent Parson comes to the haus to visit Jack. However we can assume it happened at some point during Jacks sophomore year (Fall 2012- Spring 2013) because in a blog post (or was it one of Bitty’s tweets? I can’t remember. Anyways) Holster says that “He [Kent] remembered my major” so clearly it was sometime after Holster, Rans, and Lardo all enter samwell, and were there to meet KP. Unless KP visited during Jack’s freshman year and Holster was just there for some reason??? Seems unlikely and unnecessarily complicated. So let’s just say that KP came during Jacks soph year)

Fall 2013: Bitty (our beautiful ray of sunshine) enters Samwell (18) along with minor characters, Ollie and Wicks (grad class 2017)

Spring 2014: Samwell knocked out of ECAC championship. Johnson graduates and Bitty gets his dibs

Fall 2014: Nursey (18), Dex (17??18???once again, unconfirmed), and Chowder (17??18??) (aka the frogs) all enter Samwell (grad class 2018). Jack (now 24) is looking to be drafted. Kent (also 24) shows up at Epikegster (December 2014). Bitty (now 19) has crush on Jack. (I really don’t know why I included their ages in this part I just sometimes forget how old Jack actually is)

Spring 2015: Shitty is accepted to Harvard Fucking Law. SMH makes it to final four championship, but loses. Jack signs with the Falconers. Ransom and Holster are made Co-Captains for the 2015-16 season. Jack (24) and Shitty( 22) graduate. Lardo and Chowder get their dibs. Jack and Bitty kiss after graduation.

Summer 2015: Jack spends 4th of July with Bitty in Georgia. Later that summer they start dating.

Fall 2015: Whiskey and Tango (tadpoles) enter Samwell along With Ford (grad class 2019) Jack and Bitty tell the team about their relationship (December)

Spring 2016 (as of April 1st, 2018, the comic is currently taking place in Spring 2016): Jack is given an A on the Falcs (assistant/alternate captain). Ford is appointed as manager for the 2016-17 season. SMH is knocked out of ECAC tournament in the first round. Bitty is made captain for the 2016-17 season. Lardo(22), Ransom(23),and Holster (24??25?? depends on his birthday.) all graduate. Nursey, Dex, Ollie, and Wicks all get dibs. Bitty turns 21. The Falcs win the cup. Jack and Bitty kiss and come out to the world.

Currently Jack and Kent are both 26, Holster is 24??25?? (Like I said I don’t know when his exact birthday is. If his birthday is after the events of the year 3 finale, then he would still technically be 24) Shitty is 24, Ransom is 23 and Lardo is  22, Bitty is 21, Nursey is 20, and Chowder and Dex could both either be 19 or 20 (like I said i still don’t know whether they are 95′ babies or 96′ babies, since I only have birthdates and not canon birth years. ALSO!! It should be noted that since there are no canon birth years for Chow or Dex (at least that I know of), there is no way to be certain of their ages. I mean, theoretically, Chowder could be older than Bitty, and just entered college late. Same with Dex. But just to make thing easier on myself, I’m going to assume that all of the frogs are around the same age.)

The comic is currently taking place in 2016, two years behind real time. IF it was present day (April 1st, 2018) in the comic then

Jack: 27

Kent: 27

Bitty: 22

Ransom: 23

Holster:24/25 (depending on his bday)

Shitty: 23

Lardo: 23/24 (depending on her bday)

Nursey: 22

Dex: 21/22

Chowder: 21/22

Now Bitty’s tweets….

At first I was really really really really confused about how Bitty’s tweets work in the timeline. But Its actually really simple??. Bitty’s tweets start in June 2014, basically right after the end of Bitty’s freshman year. They pretty much all follow the correct timeline (the most recent tweets are from May 2016, about Rans, Holster, and Lardos graduation). Basically if you see a tweet, the date stamp on it correlates directly to the comic. I’m not sure if Ngozi just had the entire comic figured out two years ago, and tweeted everything back in 2016 (which seems far fetched) OR if Ngozi just changed the date on her computer back to 2016 and then sent out the tweets (which seems much more likely. Still, this is all speculation ). It doesn’t really matter though because regardless, the tweets line up with the timeline. I HIGHLY recommend reading all of Bitty’s tweets before Ngozi locks the account again for year 4. They add so much more to the story and are basically just extra details that make the comic even more immersive.

And I’m pretty sure that’s it?? Until of course year 4…. but yeah once again don’t take my word as law. Also, like I said already, if I got something wrong, please just let me know. Also if I said something confusing, just ask. :)

#omgcheckplease #omgcp #william poindexter #check please #derek nurse #eric bittle #omgcp frogs #chowder #dex #zimmbits #zimbits #omgcp ford #omgcp bitty #omgcp dex #omgcp nursey #omgcp jack #omgcp shitty #omgcp lardo #omgcp holster #omgcp timeline #omgcp kent #kent parson #omgcp birthdays #check please birthday #omg check please #check please comic

[mogensenramsey8-blog]

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[pyrofleurs]

i was tagged yes hello

rules: answer the questions and then tag blogs u want to get to know better

NIckname(s): sam, sammy etc, kiwi, pyro, and a combo of my first and last name which im not gonna post on here for Privacy etc but it sounds like “swole” + my last name which is pretty funny

Gender: uhhhhhhh girl sometimes but also sometimes i feel like nothing rly tho lol. im just here to have a good time and wear floral print shirts

Sign: libra sun, gemini moon idk the rest

Height: 5′2″ (this is very exciting because i’ve been 5′1″ since i was 17 and now at the ripe age of 21 i was recently told by my doctor that i am now an inch taller!! its a big deal to me i promise)

Time: 11:15 pm

Fav band(s): uhhh walk the moon, fall out boy, the mowgli’s, i’ve listened to a lot of AJR recently too

Fav solo artist(s): troye sivan, lorde, MIKA

Last movie I saw: in theaters was infinity war. it was very stressful

Last show I watched: i literally only watch sports on tv anymore lmfao i just watched the end of the orioles/red sox game

When did I create my blog: jesus it was like 2011 or 2012 i think

What do I post: random shit at this point, art, cloud pics, splatoon, bottled up, hockey

Last thing I googled: gmail. to get to gmail.

Do I have any other blogs: none that i really use much i just dump everything here l o l. vincimus used to be my inspo/study blog but now i just put it all on this one

Do I get asks: ehh sometimes!

Why did I choose my url: pyro was from pyrope (part of my last url and i wanted to keep the nickname) + fleurs from robin’s devil fruit powers/one piece

Following: 398 but i think only about 10 people regularly post lmfao i need to clean out my following list

Followed by: 764

Average hours of sleep: anywhere from 5 to 12 depending on the day hahahhdfjdhkjfsd

Lucky number: 2, 8

What am I wearing: oversized shirt i got at the beach last year, gray joggers, mismatched socks

Dream job: uhh illustration? but im really enjoying working in graphic design rn i just need to build my skills. but also ultimately my goal is to make a living off of my own published works

Fav food: mac and cheese, mint chocolate chip ice cream. not at the same time tho.

Nationality: mostly american, like uhhhh 1/4 canadian and some german on my mom’s side

Fav song: it changes a lot so i dont know if i have one 100% fav right now. maybe baptized by fire (by spinnerette) bc i really never get sick of it

Last book I read: i dont even know college made me adverse to reading lmfao. i think the wool series by hugh howey (highly recommend i just never finished the series bc senior year started and i Died)

Top 3 fictional universes I wanna join: i can barely handle living in this universe is this a trick question

1. the universe where the caps go back-to-back

2. harry potter. i will honestly never not be sad that hogwarts isnt real and i didnt get to go

3. bup universe cause i wanna hang out at the cafe w splat jam (i would probably be a mix of a water and air element if i could be So Bold to assume that i could be two elements)

im supposed to tag 5 people. if you don’t feel like doing it its ok 

@alandria7 @astronomyfortwo @asteropos @thatgirlsalionheart @yuunachi

#ask meme #this was fun ty amanda!!!! #about

[patriotsnet]

Why Do Republicans Like Donald Trump

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/why-do-republicans-like-donald-trump/

Why Do Republicans Like Donald Trump

We Need Somebody Who’ll Finally Get Tough On Foreign Policy

Why Do So Many Republicans Like Donald Trump?

Well, there’s no doubt that Trump talks a tough game when it comes to other countries â he sort of makes it sound like the world will just roll over in front of him, exposing its collective belly for him to scratch. You may remember when he insisted that he’d bring oil prices down by swearing at OPEC leaders back in 2011, when he was teasing a possible 2012 run. Here’s what he told a Las Vegas audience, as detailed by Mother Jones.

We have nobody in Washington that sits back and said, you’re not going to raise that f***ing price.

He also had a simple message for China, saying “listen you motherf****rs, we’re going to tax you 25 percent!” This is in keeping with the general level of seriousness he seems to apply to his prognostications â he also insists that if he’s elected, he’ll force the Mexican government to finance a border wall, and that’s still nowhere near the most antagonistic component of his far-right immigration plan.

If you’re the kind of person who wants some more strident red lines in international negotiations, say â to try to secure those ever-elusive “better deals” that some conservatives have been harping on lately â that’s fine, even if we might disagree. But be forewarned: what Trump’s putting out there is little more than presumptuous bombast, so don’t be shocked if that ridiculous wall idea never comes to fruition.

Why Do Trump Voters Believe His Lies It’s Not Because They’re Stupid

The cornerstones of President Trumps campaign were promises to appeal Obamacare and ban Muslims from the US. It took Trump less than 70 days to fail on both promises.

And yet, despite his epic fails, lies and incompetence, Trumps base supports him like theyre spanx and hes Marie Osmond. What explains this loyalty? Science has the answer.

Have a look at this puzzle.

Which drawing best illustrates the correct mechanics and structure of a bicycle?

How you answer will help explain the loyalty of Trump voters. Ill explain in just a bit. But first

What I wanted to know is WTF!?

How can two people look at President Trump and have such polar opposite observations? To find out, I conducted an experiment. I set up a fake account and joined more than 50 pro-Trump Facebook groups. I created a meme that said: What do you like about President Trump, then I shared it.

I got more than a thousand responses in 24 hours and the things people wrote most is that they like Trump because hes not a politician hes a real American not corrupted by Washington, and beholden to no one.

The next most common response was that Trump believes in God.

This was followed in near equal measure by Trump Loves America, he keeps his promises, that hes a good businessman, that he cant be bought, and that he tells the truth.

OK. So, one of them is true! Trump is not a politician. One could go either wayhis love for America.

I got nearly 700 responses.

WATCH NOW:

Opinionthe Gop Needs Women And Centrist Voters Ousting Cheney Only Nets Them Trump Loyalists

More important, experts say, are the shifting demographics of those neighborhoods. “Suburbs are simply far more diverse than they used to be,” a FiveThirtyEight analysis explains. “Suburbs have also become increasingly well-educated, and that may actually better explain why so many suburbs and exurbs are turning blue.” Both communities of color and Americans with higher education tend to vote Democratic combine those factors and you have a recipe for major electoral shifts.

And there’s no indication that shift is reversing. Recent polling from Harvard’s Kennedy School shows Biden dominating the suburbs, where 6 in 10 voters view the president favorably. Biden and Democrats’ lead in suburbs is such an existential threat to the GOP that Georgia Republicans have collapsed into infighting over how suburbs once represented by then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich are now reliably Democratic bulwarks.

The Call for American Renewal is also hoping to recapture the support of women who have been fleeing the GOP since Trump’s first campaign. That may be harder than they think, too. Though it’s possible the group could restore some of the ground Trump lost to women, who went nearly 6-in-10 for Biden, Republicans have been losing women voters for years.

Mild dissatisfaction with Trump isnt the same as political courage. Most prominent Republicans have publicly aligned with Trump even as voter support erodes.

Poll Results Are Fake Unless Theyre Good Trump Says

During his speech at the Dallas convention Sunday night, Trump said he only would have believed the results of CPACs straw poll if they were his favor, Business Insider reported.

Now, if its bad, I just say its fake, the former president told the crowd, reported Insider. If its good, I say thats the most accurate poll, perhaps ever.

In the past, Trump has decried similar things he doesnt like as false, like referring to unfavorable media coverage as fake news.

A Large Share Of Republicans Want Trump To Remain Head Of The Party Cnbc Survey Shows

A CNBC survey conducted in the days before former President Donald Trump‘s impeachment trial finds a large share of Republicans want him to remain head of their party, but a majority of Americans want him out of politics.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows 54% of Americans want Trump “to remove himself from politics entirely.” That was the sentiment of 81% of Democrats and 47% of Independents, but only 26% of Republicans.

When it comes to Republicans, 74% want him to stay active in some way, including 48% who want him to remain head of the Republican Party, 11% who want him to start a third party, and 12% who say he should remain active in politics but not as head of any party.

“If we’re talking about Donald Trump’s future, at the moment, the survey shows he still has this strong core support within his own party who really want him to continue to be their leader,” said Jay Campbell, a partner with Hart Research and the Democratic pollster for the survey.

But Micah Roberts, the survey’s Republican pollster, and a partner with Public Opinion Strategies, emphasized the change from when Trump was president. Polls before the election regularly showed Trump with GOP approval ratings around 90%, meaning at least some Republicans have defected from Trump.

Republicans Cant Understand Democrats

Only one in four Republican voters felt that most or almost all Democratic voters sincerely believed they were voting in the best interests of the country.  Rather, many Republicans told us that Democratic voters were brainwashed by the propaganda of the mainstream media, or voting solely in their self-interest to preserve undeserved welfare and food stamp benefits.

We asked every Republican in the sample to do their best to imagine that they were a Democrat and sincerely believed that the Democratic Party was best for the country.  We asked them to explain their support for the Democratic Party as an actual Democratic voter might.  For example, a 64-year-old strong Republican man from Illinois surmised that Democrats want to help the poor, save Social Security, and tax the rich.   

But most had trouble looking at the world through Democratic eyes. Typical was a a 59-year-old Floridian who wrote I dont want to work and I want cradle to grave assistance. In other words, Mommy! Indeed, roughly one in six Republican voters answered in the persona of a Democratic voter who is motivated free college, free health care, free welfare, and so on.  They see Democrats as voting in order to get free stuff without having to work for it was extremely common roughly one in six Republican voters used the word free in the their answers, whereas no real Democratic voters in our sample answered this way. 

Trumps Role As Republican Party Leader Is Becoming Stronger

This weekends CPAC straw poll results showed that Trumps popularity along with DeSantis in the Republican Party has grown in the last six months, according to Forbes.

In February, only 55% of attendees of a similar CPAC event in Orlando, Florida, said they wanted Trump to lead the ticket in 2024, Forbes reported.

If Trump stayed in political retirement, or at least stayed off the presidential primary ballot in 2024, DeSantis lead the poll with 43% attending Republicans choosing him in Februarys hypothetical presidential primary.

Related

Inside the newsroom: Words matter, including the hateful Murder the media

He Appeals To Rural Voters

More than any other group, Americas rural people have been disempowered and abandoned due to the policies pushed by urban elites. Theyve seen their jobs evaporate and their local culture obliterated, only to be replaced by a Walmart and McDonalds in every town. They also realize that most of the media and academia see them as ignorant and backwards and laughable. instead, Trump treats them with respect. If you look at an electoral map of 2016, Clinton won all the urban areas and Trump won all of the rural ones. Thats because he was the first politician in memory who didnt sneer at them.

Hes Nationalist Rather Than Globalist

Why Do People Act Like Black Conservatives Don’t Exist? | NBC News

He realizes that the ex-factory worker in Ohio lost his job because it was sent to Malaysia. He knows that some banker in Brussels is more interested in increasing his stock portfolio than whether doing so will render huge swaths of the American heartland jobless and pill-addicted. He cares more about what a homeowner in Iowa thinks about him than what some sneering cosmopolite at a Parisian cocktail party thinks.

Emboldened ‘unchanged’ Trump Looks To Re

Across the party as a whole, an NBC News poll released late last month found, a majority of Republicans considered themselves supporters of the GOP, compared to just 44 percent who supported Trump above all, the first time that has been the case since July 2019.

But mild dissatisfaction with Trump isn’t the same as political courage. Most prominent Republicans have publicly aligned with Trump even as voter support erodes, and they’re buckled in for the long haul. That creates the opening for more traditional Republicans to toy with forming a new party but it’s a slim one.

Why Does Donald Trump Still Seem To Hold Sway Over The Republican Party

Why after leading the Republican Party during a period when it lost its majority in the US House of Representatives and the Senate and its power in the White House does former president Donald Trump still seem to hold the Grand Old Party of Lincoln and Reagan in his thrall?

For US politics watchers, who on the weekend watched on as 43 Republican senators voted to acquit Trump of an act of reckless incitement played out in front of the cameras, that is the $64,000 question.

Or rather, it’s the 74,222,593-vote question.

That is the record number of Americans who voted for Donald Trump last November more than has been cast for any previous president. Unfortunately for them, an even greater number 81,281,502 voted for his rival, now-President Joe Biden.

As much as anything else, those numbers sum up the quandary Republicans find themselves in.

They have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, and only remain competitive because older white voters, who tend to be more likely to support conservative candidates, also tend to vote in greater numbers in a non-compulsory electoral system.

Those same voters are also the most likely to cast a ballot in next year’s house and senate primaries, and the next midterm elections in November 2022 which will again determine who holds power in congress. They are the voters who initially flocked to Donald Trump.

All The Republicans Who Wont Support Trump

Numerous top G.O.P. officials have said publicly or privately that they will not be backing the presidents re-election. Some have even endorsed Joe Biden. Heres a look at where they all stand.

Follow our latest coverage of the Biden vs. Trump 2020 election here.

As November draws nearer, some current and former Republican officials have begun to break ranks with the rest of their party, saying in public and private conversations that they will not support President Trump in his re-election. A number have even said that they will be voting for his Democratic opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr.

As Mr. Trumps political standing has slipped, fueled by his failures in handling the coronavirus pandemic and by the economic recession, some Republicans have found it easier to publicly renounce their backing.

Here is a running list of those who have said they will support Mr. Biden in the fall, those who simply wont support Mr. Trump, and those who have hinted they may not back the president.

List Of Republicans Who Opposed The Donald Trump 2016 Presidential Campaign

This article is part of a series about

This is a list of Republicans and conservatives who announced their opposition to the election of Donald Trump, the 2016 Republican Party nominee and eventual winner of the election, as the President of the United States. It also includes former Republicans who left the party due to their opposition to Trump and as well as Republicans who endorsed a different candidate. It includes Republican presidential primary election candidates that announced opposition to Trump as the nominee. Some of the Republicans on this list threw their support to Trump after he won the presidential election, while many of them continue to oppose Trump. Offices listed are those held at the time of the 2016 election.

Why Do Evangelical Christians Love Trump

To many, it seems hypocritical that Christians who have long touted family values could rally around a thrice-married man who was accused by several women of sexual assault.

White evangelical support for Donald Trump has long puzzled observers. To many, it seems hypocritical that Christians who have long touted family values could rally around a thrice-married man who was accused by several women of sexual assault. Scholars have commented on his crassness, defined by historian Walter G. Moss as a lack refinement, tact, sensitivity, taste or delicacy. Others have observed how he has broken rules of civil political engagement.

But in my research on evangelical masculinity, I have found that Trumps leadership style aligns closely with a rugged ideal of Christian manhood championed by evangelicals for more than half a century.

As I show in my book Jesus and John Wayne: How White Evangelicals Corrupted a Faith and Fractured a Nation, conservative evangelicals embraced the ideal of a masculine protector in the 1960s and 1970s in order to confront the perceived threats of communism and feminism.

Believing that the feminist rejection of macho masculinity left the nation in peril, conservative white evangelicals promoted a testosterone-fueled vision of Christian manhood. In their view, America needed strong men to defend Christian America on the battlefields of Vietnam and to reassert order on the home front.

Why it Matters

How I Do My Work

The Baffling Continued Support For Donald Trump Explained

Donald Trump has, by almost any measure, been the worst president in U.S. history, or at least within the memory of people living in 2020. But for some reason, he has remained popular with a sizable segment of Americans. While Joe Biden defeated him in the presidential election, 74 million Americans voted for Trump, and a large percentage of Republicans, like Trump himself, are denying that he actually lost the election. So why do Trumps diehard fans stay that way?

Yes, hes made some people happy with his tax cuts and appointments of right-wing judges, and he is beloved by white supremacists and conspiracy theorists, but he has downplayed a pandemic that has taken the lives of more than 276,000 Americans and caused an economic crash. One would think his personal style, bullying, and insults would alienate many people. Yet his approval ratings have remained stable at around 40 percent for most of his presidency, and the 40 percent cant all be fringe elements. What could possibly account for the continued unwavering support of Trump loyalists?

I think that there are a number of things at play, crosscurrents, if you will, said JoDee Winterhof, senior vice president for policy and political affairs at the Human Rights Campaign.

Winterhof likewise said she observed a decline in enthusiasm among voters who were counting on Trump for positive change and agreed that Biden was better positioned than Clinton among voters overall.

Opinionwe Want To Hear What You Think Please Submit A Letter To The Editor

The history of American third parties doesn’t offer much hope. Last year, Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen garnered just 1.2 percent of the vote in a typical third-party showing. In fact, no third-party candidate has achieved a double-digit popular vote total since Ross Perot in 1992, and data trends indicate that popular support for third parties has been in steady decline since then.

And even if the GOP 2.0 secures a marquee name like former Ohio Gov. John Kasich or Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah to champion its message, the role would likely be as a political spoiler rather than a serious candidate: Even former President Theodore Roosevelt, at the time one of the most popular figures in American culture, barely surpassed a quarter of the popular vote and garnered just 88 electoral votes in an iconic third-party campaign in 1912. No one on the Call for American Renewal bench commands anything near Roosevelt’s profile and platform.

That hasn’t stopped disaffected Republicans from setting their sights on fence-sitting “Biden Republicans” mostly suburban moderates who broke with Trump but remain aligned with GOP ideas like small government that have gone extinct in the post-Trump GOP. Those voters were largely responsible for Trump’s upset victory against Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Biden returned formerly right-leaning suburbs to the Democratic column to help power his 2020 win.

Taking The Perspective Of Others Proved To Be Really Hard

Why LGBTQ Republicans Hate The Party’s Platform But Like Donald Trump

The divide in the United States is wide, and one indication of that is how difficult our question proved for many thoughtful citizens. A 77-year-old Republican woman from Pennsylvania was typical of the voters who struggled with this question, telling us, This is really hard for me to even try to think like a devilcrat!, I am sorry but I in all honesty cannot answer this question. I cannot even wrap my mind around any reason they would be good for this country.

Similarly, a 53-year-old Republican from Virginia said, I honestly cannot even pretend to be a Democrat and try to come up with anything positive at all, but, I guess they would vote Democrat because they are illegal immigrants and they are promised many benefits to voting for that party. Also, just to follow what others are doing. And third would be just because they hate Trump so much. The picture she paints of the typical Democratic voter being an immigrant, who goes along with their party or simply hates Trump will seem like a strange caricature to most Democratic voters. But her answer seems to lack the animus of many.  

Democrats struggled just as much as Republicans. A 33-year-old woman from California told said, i really am going to have a hard time doing this but then offered that Republicans are morally right as in values, going to protect us from terrorest and immigrants, going to create jobs.

He Says He Wants To Make America Great Again

Aided by global finance and a compliant press, Americas middle and working classes have been sold down the river. Nearly all of the manufacturing jobs have been shipped overseas, and what jobs remain here have seen their wages pushed down due to unrestrained immigration. America, once the shining light of the world, became a country ashamed of itself and that felt obligated to apologize to the rest of the world for being more successful than other countries. Something is deeply wrong when someone feels obligated to apologize for winningafter all, you never see that in sports. Trump wants to return us to a better time when people bragged about being American instead of apologizing for it

What Americans Really Think

Social scientists and psychologists believe that people subscribe to conspiracy theories for the simple reason that these theories often tend to validate their views of the world. Republicans believe all kinds of things about President Obama, and many liberals believe similar theories about President George W. Bush.

“For both liberals and conservatives, for everybody, there’s just this tendency to want to believe things that fit our worldview as we believe it,” said Joanne Miller, a political scientist the University of Minnesota and one of the authors of the new study. “Both liberals and conservatives are subject to that. It’s a human tendency to want to believe what we believe.”

In particular, conspiracy theories offer a simple explanation, with an identifiable villain, for the complicated reality of modern politics. That simplicity is appealing.

Miller and her collaborators — Christina Farhart and Colorado State University’s Kyle Saunders — used data from surveys of Americans who were asked whether they thought statements about politicians and public figures were true.

A few conspiracy theories were on the list. Four were designed to suss out conservative respondents:

that Obama was born outside the United States;

that his health-care reform established “death panels;”

that global warming was a hoax

and that Saddam Hussein was involved in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

There were four more theories for the other side:

Why Do Republicans Continue To Support Trump Despite Years Of Scandal

It was late September last year when a whistleblower complaint revealed that President Trump had tried to force the Ukrainian government to investigate Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Within moments the scandal captured headlines. What followed was months of back and forth as Republicans supported the president while the Democrats used their political capital to get him impeached.

But this was not the first time   or the last time  the president was caught in the middle of a scandal. Since the impeachment trial that followed the Ukraine incident, episodes from The New York Times uncovering unsavory details from President Trumps tax returns, to his questionable dismissal of multiple Inspectors General, to his refusal to clearly condemn white supremacists have all sparked widespread media attention and partisan fighting in 2020. 

Although with his polls dropping, some Republicans may finally be distancing themselves from the President, the question has been regularly asked the past four years: why do the Republicans continue to support the President despite these troubling charges being leveled at him? And, what is it that the Democrats stand to gain from repeated allegations?

 In addition to demonstrating how polarization accelerates scandals, the paper also found that: 

Republicans Think Democrats Always Cheat

The Republican strategy has several sources of motivation, but the most important is a widely shared belief that Democrats in large cities i.e., racial minorities engage in systematic vote fraud, election after election. We win because of our ideas, we lose elections because they cheat us, insisted Senator Lindsey Graham on Fox News last night. The Bush administration pursued phantasmal vote fraud allegations, firing prosecutors for failing to uncover evidence of the schemes Republicans insisted were happening under their noses. In 2008, even a Republican as civic-minded as John McCain accused ACORN, a voter-registration group, of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country, maybe destroying the fabric of democracy.

The persistent failure to produce evidence of mass-scale vote fraud has not discouraged Republicans from believing in its existence. The failure to expose it merely proves how well-hidden the conspiracy is. Republicans may despair of their chances of proving Trumps vote-fraud charges in open court, but many of them believe his wild lies reflect a deeper truth.