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rivalsforlife · 8 months

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The Yearly AA Series Future Speculation Post

I've given up on calling it aa7 speculation because that has never worked out for me. anyways [apollo justice voice] hiya!

It's been a while since I made one of these little posts where I try to predict things and end up horribly embarrassing myself. BUT this year has actually been very exciting for Ace Attorney. We have Ghost Trick! We have 456 ports! Could there be more? Who knows. Tokyo Game Show is coming up and that's always a bad time of year for my self-esteem.

In this post I will do the following:

-Go over the November 2020 leaks again, to compare that to where we're at now

-Talk a bit about the 456 port and what I think that means for the series and its future

-Talk a bit about how well TGAA is doing, I think

-Brief Tokyo Game Show speculations (there's not much to speculate about)

I'll reference my previous posts and sources where necessary. It'll get long and rambly again so I'll put the rest under a keep reading.

FIRST:

Revisiting the Calendar (Again)

For those who aren't aware, back in November 2020, Capcom got hacked (this was overall bad) and from that hack came a leak of a roadmap for the future of the AA series.

For this post, please keep in mind that this calendar is using the Japanese fiscal year, which starts in in April. Therefore Q1 is roughly April-June, Q2 July-September, Q3 October-December, Q4 January-March of the next year.

This calendar was likely made in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, which inevitably ended up throwing everything off quite a bit.

Some of these things came true. This leak was where we first heard about the official TGAA ports, and while they were delayed by about a quarter, they still came out pretty close to on time with all things pandemic to consider. What's especially interesting is that now with confirmation of the 456 ports, we now have no idea what is up with AA7.

We know that AA7 was in development at one point. We know that, if things were on track prior to the pandemic, they might have started the main production. However, the plan seemed to be to release it for the 20th anniversary and use those sales and the sales from TGAA to judge whether 456 would be ported; now that we have 456 confirmed before AA7, we can assume that AA7's delay is so severe we have no way of predicting if or when it will come out.

The thing is, though, AA has been doing really well the last few years, despite the lack of a new game. The 2019 ports of the Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney trilogy have sold around 2.3 million copies, when previously no other Ace Attorney game broke a million. The trilogy hit a million copies around December 2020, for reference. Ace Attorney itself as a whole broke ten million copies sold recently. In this post I covered how TGAA seemingly has sold way more than Capcom expected, and sold pretty quickly, and is confirmed to be somewhere between 500k-1 million copies sold.

I don't see any reason to believe that AA is in dire financial straits. We've gotten more official merchandise in the last year or so than we got for a while, AA is featured heavily on Capcom's Captown website, the Tokyo Game Show merchandise store has been selling out of AA merch faster than any of their other IPs... I don't see why they wouldn't want to milk that. And 456 is probably a part of it.

What Do The 456 Ports Mean

Back in March 2022, in an event I almost completely forgot about, Capcom updated their trademark for Apollo Justice. I covered my thoughts on that here, and speculated it might indicate a 456 port. ... Which it apparently did. I'll quote exactly what I said in that post, since I still feel this way:

Presumably, previously, the decision to port or not to port 456 would be dependent both on how well TGAA does and how well AA7 would do. With no AA7, they might be making this decision solely based on TGAA. And they… might actually decide it’s worth the port?

This tells us a couple of things.

1.Capcom is aware that there is a decent market and profit to be made porting the Ace Attorney games to all consoles.

2.This heavily implies that TGAA sold fantastically.

I also said in my post about TGAA's success that the 456 ports would be the best indicator of whether Capcom would find it more profitable to continue along with mainline or stick to writing more things about TGAA. Because TGAA is actually doing... pretty great? It's always seemed to have a pretty good fan reception, but it came at the end of the 3DS life cycle and seemed to do poorly enough that Capcom didn't try to localize it for several years. But now it's big enough that Ryunosuke made it onto the 20th anniversary logo, and Ryunosuke and Kazuma are featured in some of the Ace Attorney merchandise for TGS's merch store.

456 doing well would probably reinvigorate Capcom's desire to continue making stories set in mainline. It also might inspire them to finally give an official translation to my favorite game, Ace Attorney Investigations 2, who is Capcom's poor unloved child these days. I'm not expecting Investigations Ports for a few more years, since they seem to be spacing out the ports by about two years, but... it's more likely now than I felt it was about three years ago.

The Great Ace Attorney Sweep

Also, the last few years have had a heavy focus on Great Ace Attorney, even now a couple of years after the ports came out. Takarazuka made their first AA musical in a decade based on TGAA, and, if you ask me, it sounds pretty heavily like they were teasing for a sequel someday. There also has been a reading theater based on TGAA, with an original episode written by Takumi.

Of particular relevance is this source of dubious credibility I linked to in one of my other posts talking about TGAA's expected success. I've assumed it came from the data in the November 2020 Capcom Leak but I can't be certain, so take this next part with a grain of salt.

Here are the original sales projections from 2019(?): FY21: 195K (originally supposed to launch in Q1) FY22: 55K FY23: 8K FY24: 41K (with 32K being in Q3)

This sudden increase in FY24 has always been interesting. Again, as a reminder, Japan's FY24 Q3 would be equivalent to October-December 2024.

It would make sense to say that the 456 ports coming out would likely lead to an increase in sales for all AA games, and it could be that Capcom initially intended for a 456 port to come out about half a year later than the current projection of early 2024. At the same time... I can't deny the possibility that this could be hinting at a new game in the TGAA setting. And something coming out in late 2024 could be a reasonable candidate for an announcement at some major gaming show that Ace Attorney fans already have an interest in tuning into. These are all completely neutral things I am saying that I have no expectations or hope for whatsoever.

What IS Happening At Tokyo Game Show?

TGS is always the part of the year where I say "This is the most likely place for a new AA game announcement leading up to or during it" and it never happens. This year, though, will be different! We have a CONFIRMED feature of the 456 ports. This is the first time we'll have AA content at TGS since 2018, when I first got into the series, so I think it's a pretty big deal. (2018 was when the trilogy ports were first announced; TGAA ports had an announcement-release window of April-July, so they didn't get a chance to feature at TGS.)

Since all we have for a release date is early 2024, I wouldn't be surprised if there will be an official confirmation of the release date, probably a showcase of port features, maybe in-person gameplay? That could be all, and it would be more than we've had since 2018.

I want to say "because there's going to be 456 advertising there, it would be ridiculous for them to announce some new AA content to detract from that". But I said the same things about the capcom showcase where Ghost Trick was featured and the 456 collection was announced, so. Capcom's decisions on when to announce things can be counterintuitive, it seems, so maybe the least likely time is actually the most likely...?

Anyways, we have no idea what the state of New Ace Attorney Content is like in Capcom. From the calendar from the Nov 2020 leaks, the staff that had been working on the DGS ports would join the main staff for AA7, suggesting to me that there would be part of the staff working on ports and part of the staff working on new things. We have no idea what happened to these people who were supposed to be working on AA7. We *can* assume that at least part of the staff transferred over to 456 ports now, but we don't know when that would have been, or if they'd really need all hands on deck for a remaster.

It's been a few years now since Yamazaki left Capcom. We know absolutely nothing about what Takumi has been doing, outside of whatever contributions he may or may not have made to the Ghost Trick remaster, and only recently contributing to various stage content. (We know he advised at least somewhat on the Takarazuka play, and wrote that original episode for the reading theater, so I'd assume he's not in the middle of a big project right when those were taking place.)

This is all to say, there's reason to believe Something's Been Happening Behind The Scenes. And Therefore -- [clown wig descends onto my head again] Maybe TGS 2023 Will Be The Year Of New Ace Attorney Content. Since 456 will be taking the spotlight, I wouldn't expect anymore than a teaser, if it's happening at all.

And now that I've said it, it won't happen.

OVERALL

-TGS confirmed 456 port feature, which should be interesting to see what kind of quality of life features they'll add. Slight possibility there could be something else AA related teased there, solely because Capcom.

-I think TGAA is doing better than Capcom expected and I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to make a new game of it, or at least more extracanonical content like stage plays taking place in that timeline

-AA7 has seemingly vanished but I am sure it will come back when I least expect it.

-AAI ports someday. please. please. please.

#ace attorney #aa7 speculation #[banging pots and pans together] YEAR 3 OF FAILED PREDICTIONS LET'S GIVE IT UP FOR YEAR 3 #there's not much to say here I just wanted to get something out as we're heading into september #do I even want aa7 anymore? no. am I speculating anyways? yes.

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sirenium · 9 months

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You're a lesbian if you feel like one. You're a lesbian if you also like men. You're a lesbian if you ARE a man. You're a lesbian if you're also aro. You're a lesbian if you're also ace. You're a lesbian if you're aroace—

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vivitalks · 6 days

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“Parker,” Eliot hisses at the ceiling vent, “what the fuck?" Aw, shit. “Aw, shit.” Hardison grimaces, rubbing his head. In the…excitement of the night, he completely forgot about Parker. “Parker, why are you in the ceiling?” There's a long pause. “I don't understand the question,” Parker says.

eliot/hardison/parker rights

#eliot spencer #alec hardison #parker leverage #do they have a ship name #leverage #leverage fic #leverage ot3 #fic #my fic #stuff #quick lil thing bc im obsessed with the dynamics here #i will have to do a more in depth study one day hopefully #picture the marquee: aro eliot x ace parker x pan hardison ot3 qpr and they're all holding hands and it's great #eliot and parker boost cars and do yoga and fuckin rescue orphans together #they WOULD do that shit #okay im done back to actually WATCHING leverage now xoxo #this version of events is so delightful to me that i don't want to return to actual canon #i just want to live in this fantasy world ive created where this ot3 is extremely canon and real

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xmaveria · 10 months

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Its that time of the month!! The rainbow senses are tingling

#ace #pan #agender #oc #pride #I haven't watched spiderverse yet but I love the rendering style so here's me trying to add some by memory

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phoenixkaptain · 1 year

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Kaichou wa Maid-sama is the funniest show, if only because it’s about a flirtatious demi falling for an accidentally charming pansexual. Usui gives off such ace vibes, whenever he is with literally anybody other than Misaki, he just does not care, he does not see them, he has a one-track mind and the track its on is Misaki.

But then there’s Misaki, who is just… she’s perfect. Her favourite days are ones where more girls come in, because she likes girls. She actively enjoys crossdressing because she likes that she can charm girls. She flirts with and takes care of and just genuinely seduces all the girls and she loves it because she loves girls. She isn’t shy about it, either! But, she also likes boys! She takes care of everyone, and while she doesn’t mean to, she charms boys just as well as she charms girls! She’s a casanova-

Usui and Misaki are such a duo. You have Usui, who is willing to kiss random people just because he wants Misaki to stop being incapable of looking him in the eye. He is just really not interested in girls or boys, he just zones tf out whenever people speak to him and honestly same. You have Misaki, who is effortlessly charming with girls and begrudgingly charming with boys and who likes to crossdress and supports other people crossdressing. You have two flirts, neither of whom are actually good at relationships, and it’s just really fucking funny to watch.

It’s a duo I’ve thought of: pan/demi. Just the opposites attract sort of thing, you know, but taken to the extreme. (As a side note, I really wish Usui would crossdress, can you imagine? All he had to do was crossdress and Misaki would have fallen for him immediately, she loves girls, okay, she just loves girls so much-)

This show isn’t for everyone. There is sexual harassment and dark themes and the regular early-2000s view of romance which is very… interesting. Also, it doesn’t feel like a show about teenagers, honestly. It feels like a regency show, sometimes. The school is really only there for the Student Council President aspect, as well as a few storylines about Misaki trying to get along with boys. That isn’t to say they don’t utilize the setting, they really do, it just feels like forty-year-olds in sixteen-year-olds’ bodies, if that makes sense. The characters are all so oddly jaded, it’s fascinating.

And it isn’t very kind to queer people, despite having one of the most openly bisexual characters of all time as the protagonist. Misaki’s attraction to women is played more as a joke, or we’re supposed to think she is only platonically interested in women. I’m pretty sure her attraction is sexual though. I mean, she doesn’t realize she’s into Usui for months. Would she really understand that she’s into girls? I think she thinks it’s just normal to occasionally think about making out with your friends. But aside from that, Aoi is treated quite poorly at times. I don’t know what they were going for, honestly, because it seems like a trans story but also seems like they just wanted him to crossdress for the fun of it, kind of like Princess Jellyfish style.

And, it’s really strangely sexist, at times? Most of the time, actually. It’s fascinating. It’s so sexist, yet so empowering at the same time? Or, at least, they were trying really hard to make it empowering and they occasionally stumbled pretty badly…

Anyway, all this to say, I really like the dumb romance show about a guy falling in love with a girl who scares the shit out of people with her violent tendencies. The romance is honestly legitimately sweet at times, especially further in. They learn what each other likes and they treat each other better. It’s nice. It has such intense scenes and then cartoony scenes, back to back. Usui is like a puppy. Misaki is the best. I like the show a lot but would advise patience with anyone who wishes to watch it.

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most-fuck-able-ff14 · 11 months

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I have a friend who hcs Thancred as ace, who used the flirtations and tumbles as both a bad coping mechanism combined with his spy efforts! I hc mine as demi, he's relatively neutral/uninterested but not repulsed towards sex but has to genuinely have feelings for someone to actually have any real attraction to them. I met him in 1.0 and ARR and went "hmm a flirt" until he started actually getting information and then flipped immediately into interrogation mode, and it had an immediate "oh he's a SPY getting INFORMATION, cool!" moment that's been the basis of his character for me ever since.

Anon i need you to know i suffer from a Thancred addiction and i'm relapsing, thank you! -Mod Fisher

#mod rambles #Thancred MY BOY Waters #ace headcanons #ace spy thancred waters #he knows who is and isn't fuckable #I headcanon thancred as bi/pan but i still love this #it makes his relationship with my WoL even cozier #my WoL is ace but romantically questioning #and their friendship with thancred is built heavily on them both being openly affectionate #so the idea that thancred is also ace is just *chefs kiss*#this is fun im having fun #who would have thought hosting a most fuckable tournament #would result in getting ace/aroace headcanons?#we have fun here

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homophyte · 1 year

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it is interesting to me that ive seen lately (n yknow this is subjective and likely not any real social force just what ive seen) many queer people simultaneously talking about taking back and embodying unpalatable and ‘unmarketable’ queerness (the recent return to the terms faggot and transsexual come to mind) which i think is pretty evidently shaped by the conservative moment were in of demonizing queer ppl and especially gnc and trans people as predators--it reads as a return to queer isolationism in the face of external hostility, imo--while at the same time ive seen a lot of rallying around the “original” 6 stripe rainbow flag as opposed to any of the purportedly ‘factional’ flags of different queer identities, with the assumption being different identity flags divide us while the rainbow flag encompasses everyone and its kinda fascinating to me bc the rainbow flag is probably the single most marketable and palatable and uncontroversial symbols of queerness which has been seamlessly uptaken by those who wish to sell it back to us as gets pointed out every pride month with all the cringey pride merch.... i dunno you could maybe take that as a point of hypocrisy and claim the queer community is itself in a conservative moment rn where its returning to a sense of history and historical continuity (perhaps even out of that sense of external threat) or even that the queer community has for some time been in a conservative moment given the like, decade of identity discourse and lashing out at any people deemed to not have a sufficiently established history or however we should categorize the bihets/ace discourse/transtrender-tucute discourse/pan discourse/bi lesbians discourse (because lets be frank its essentially all the same discourse just keeping up its momentum by leapfroging from one target to the next) which i think is, like, SOMEWHAT true but not entirely? its more interesting to me, in any case, as an expression of a conflict the queer community is facing given that current state of affairs RE antitransness and that very recent history. like, the simultaneous need to retreat to a safe sense of community which is welcoming to the very things the outer world is demonizing ie mutable gender, complex or contradictory experiences of gender, gender expression which is hostile to the cis binary, but also the ways in which it has to grapple with those discourses which have largely defined the community infighting for again the past decade. its queer people begging the question ‘how can we make the queer community welcoming to the girlfags and genderfucks and tboys who are being threatened when we have spent so much time making the queer community a hostile place for anyone with a non-conventional or not easily (or even just palatably) sortable sense of queer identity’. and the answer it seems to be grappling with at the moment is like, welcoming all that diversity of experience but being absolutely averse to naming it. yes we love all the fuckery with gender and sexuality never be marketable but like, ew, why are you calling yourself [insert microlabel here]. you can be genderweird but you cant call yourself genderweird. you can only exist as queer in the broadest possible way (the all-inclusive gay pride flag!) but if you try to name the specifics or use those identity labels weve been fighting over for years youre doing it wrong (the progress pride flag is now ugly and cringey and ‘too much’). i think theres something also to the way (at least on this site) transmisogynistic discourses have really taken hold as legitimate (though yknow i wont downplay how much a problem transmisogyny has like. always been in queer spaces no matter what) in the name of protecting n defending trans people. like its just regurgitated transmisogyny but its being mobilized supposedly in the service of helping trans people. idk its definitely getting a little late for me to string this together fully coherently but theres a throughline there, in the ways certain ideas are being consolidated and reified as ‘yes were more progressive now!’ when i think theres definitely something to question there in terms of like...are we? are we actually? are we doing better by the people were trying to help or are we setting strict standards and forcing ppl to adhere to them again?

#myposts #this is long and honestly probably Nothing #i dont even really have a way of proving its the same group of people saying both things except fro anecdotally seeing it #and even thats not proof either is a real social force with like power. i could be entirely wrong on every count here #but i do think theres something to the idea that like #as ive seen said #yknow 'ace discourse never ended you all just accepted ace people didnt deserve support and then moved on w those views internalized'#i think thats more broadly true for like. all those discourses i mentioned. and for the transmisogyny i alluded to #but honestly i dont even want to name the specific phenomenon im talking abt there bc those people. scare me.#but yknow ill say it ive felt way more pressure lately to not call myself pan than i did at the height of pan discourse #before it became cringe to care about it and instead of actively shitting on pan ppl we moved on to passively doing it #ive largely started just. calling myself bi to avoid the arguement. which i predicted i would have to do years ago #and now look at me doing it! not really a fluke that its happening now. i think #which isnt to say were moving 'backwards' per se but that these ideas are not now and never have been really challenged #so weve just internalized their logics--reactionary logics--and its having an interesting effect now that we need a progressive community #for our safety.#now we cant say anything about it because to bring it up is jeopardizing everything weve built and the people were keeping safe!#cause we dont count as people deserving of safety were disruptors who only belong when we dont make noise. idk. or thats how i feel #again i dont really know if this is true at all im more just...thinking through it i think #basically like what im seeing--i think--comes from simultaneously that need to be unmarketable in the face of hostility #coming into conflict with a decade of momentum to make queers solely marketable. and i think thats producing some interesting--but sucky #--discourses in the current moment #last disclaimer that i might and am likely totally wrong! okay lauren out. post send *nervous sweating*

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