#Still undecided but even if i do i probably will tomorrow since i hit post limit on my main blog so it would be really annoying

[iambutmortal]

How Elain Found Out She Had A Daddy Kink

For @separatist-apologist (Happy Birthday MB!)

Inspired by this post by @finalgirl-steve

Summary: Elain accidentally discovers more about herself after reading one of Nesta’s smutty books

Pairing: Elucien

Word Count: 1.6k

Read on Ao3

It started as an accident, really.

Elain and Lucien were in the House of Wind having their monthly dinner with the Inner Circle. Sometimes, Elain wasn’t sure who was forcing the other to attend, if Elain was making Lucien go so she could see her sisters, or if he was dragging her along so he could do his duty as heir of Day.

Either way, they both always left with the same feeling of relief it was over. 

Still, Elain was glad she got to visit her sisters, got to watch as Nyx grew up. And because it meant she got to raid Nesta’s library.

She didn’t have permission in the strictest sense of the word. There was the official stack of books Nesta gave her every month, sweet romances with nothing more than hand holding and maybe some light kissing if Elain got lucky.

Then there were the ones that always seemed to slip their way into the pile, the absolute filth Elain knew her sister usually read if the comments Cassian occasionally let slip were anything to go by.

The first time had been a mistake. Elain had set the stack on an end table, hadn’t noticed the book already there when she’d put them down.

She found she’d enjoyed it more than she’d thought she would, the pirate stealing the princess away in the night to have his wicked way with her.

Since then, she’d noticed more and more somehow appearing. Always made sure to give a whispered thanks to the House of Wind before leaving.

Elain opened the newest copy as soon as they got back to Pelas, sliping under the covers of her and Lucien’s bed in Helion’s palace.

It was good, they were always good, the House seemed to have impeccable taste. And then she got to the first bit of smut.

“Please Daddy,” Merem whined as Orzi thrust into her, hitting that inner spot over and over. She was desperate, wanted to come for her daddy…

Elain slammed the book shut, her face turning a furious shade of red.

“Something wrong?” Lucien asked, looking up from his own book. Something on treatises or another equally boring topic.

Elain shook her head quickly, probably too quickly if Lucien’s arched brow was any indication. “It just took me by surprise,” Elain said faintly. 

“Good surprise or bad?”

“An undecided surprise,” Elain supplied, uninterested in elaborating.

Lucien hummed his response, closing his own book. “Well if you’re done reading…” Elain squealed as Lucien rolled on top of her, gently tugging the book out of her hands and tossing it on the nightstand before pulling up the bottom of her nightgown. Elain parted her thighs and he slid between them easily.

-

Elain was still thinking about it in the wee hours of the morning, well after Lucien had fallen asleep. She longed to join him, her body worn out and tired, even as her mind whirled.

By the cauldron, had Nesta, controlled, rigid Nesta every called Cassian that. Elain didn’t want to think about it, wanted to banish the thought from her mind, but it was there, nibbling away at her every time she closed her eyes.

It’s not like her and Lucien hadn’t used pet names before. She’d occasionally slip a yes sir in when her mate was being particularly bossy, couldn’t deny that being called lady made her insides warm and melty.

But daddy seemed like a step too far. Especially for Nesta, who had spent so long hating their father.

 Lucien rolled over in the bed, sliding one arm over her waist and tugging her against his chest. “Go to sleep,” he whispered, mouth pressed against her hair. “You’re going to need your energy tomorrow, Vassa and Jurian are coming for dinner.”

Elain pressed against his warmth. “I didn’t mean to keep you awake,” she apologized.

“S’ okay,” Lucien said, already drifting back asleep. Elain tried to follow suit, she really did, but she still felt utterly exhausted at dinner that night, the slight ache of her under eyes reminding her of her lack of rest.

She thought she was doing an admiral job of appearing awake, laughing at all the appropriate times as Lucien and Vassa bantered back and forth, at least until they retired to the salon for after-dinner drinks and Vassa slid next to her with a suggestive grin.

“Long night?”

“What,” Elain asked, taking a second to process the question. “No,” she shook her head, feeling her cheeks grow warm. “Not like that, it was a book I read…” Elain trailed off weakly.

“Oh?” Vassa asked, voice teasing. “Don’t be shy, tell me your recommendation?”

“Lost to the Pirate Lord,” Elain whispered, too low for Jurian and Lucien to hear across the room.

“I loved that one,” Vassa exclaimed loudly, prompting Jurian to look over at them, his face soft. “Orzi was hot.”

“Vassa wouldn’t shut about about him for a week,” Jurian added.

“Do I have competition?” Lucien asked, grinning broadly.

“Maybe,” Vassa smirked. “He gave me lots of ideas.”

Elain wanted to sink into the couch cushions.

It was only after the conversation had safely drifted away from that topic, Jurian and Lucien deep in discussion about a trade deal between the human lands and Day Court, that Elain dared ask the question she’d been longing to all night.

“So do you actually call Jurian,” Elain glanced over at her mate, making sure he was thoroughly distracted, “that in bed?”

“Daddy?” Vassa asked, her face the picture of innocence. 

Elain nodded.

Vassa’s smile was feral. “Obviously. You should see Jurian, he goes absolutely wild. It’s the best sex—“

“Thank you,” Elain interrupted before her friend could say something else about her and Jurian’s sex life Elain really didn’t want to hear. 

Vassa shrugged. “If you’re curious, try it. Or at least mention it to Lucien, see if he’s interested.”

Elain highly doubted she would ever do that, could handle that conversation. Lucien would take it well, would want to talk about her desires, but Elain didn’t think she could make it through that talk without dissolving into a puddle of embarrassment.

Besides, for all Elain’s hang ups about her father, Lucien undoubtedly had more. She could only guess how little he wanted to be reminded of that in bed.

Really, it was fine. She’d forget about it soon, this whole thing would be a non incident.

-

A week later and Elain had not forgotten it. Which was a problem because she was currently in bed, legs spread while Lucien pounded into her. 

Her back arched, a garbled moan spilling from her lips when Lucien hit a particularly sensitive spot.

“By the cauldron, you feel good,” he groaned, somehow managing to slide in impossibly further.

Elain whimpered, trying desperately to grind her clit against Lucien’s warm skin. She needed more, more friction, more of him.

Lucien placed a hand on her hips, holding her down to the mattress. “You’re going to be a good girl for me and stay still, aren’t you?”

“Yes, Daddy,” Elain purred, the word slipping out without meaning to.

Above her, Lucien froze.

Elain felt her face go hot as she realized what she said. “I—“ Elain started, before realizing she had no idea how to explain this.

“What did you say?” Lucien asked, his voice low. He was still frozen above her, muscles tense.

“I’m sorry,” Elain said, her voice tiny.

Lucien shook his head, red hair falling around his face. “Say it again.”

“What?”

“Say it again,” Lucien demanded, pulling out slightly and then thrusting back in. “Are you my good girl.”

“Yes Daddy,” Elain said, face still unbearably warm.

The low groan in the back of Lucien’s throat made something in Elain’s stomach tighten. He reached a large hand around the back of her thighs, pulling them up towards her and letting him deepen his angle, hitting that sensitive spot again and again with each long, slow thrust.

His thumb brushed against her clit and Elain whined, throwing her head back on the pillow and squeezing her eyes shut.

“Eyes on me,” Lucien ordered. She obeyed, watching where her mate slid in and out of her. Elain was rapidly approaching the precipice, driving higher with each roll of Lucien’s hips, each stroke of his thumb.

Lucien leaned closer to her, lips pressed gently against her ear. “Come for me,” he ordered. “Be a good girl and come for Daddy.”

Elain broke, pleasure cresting higher than ever before and she cried out. Her core tightened around Lucien and he grunted giving another deep thrust before following her over the edge.

Lucien rode them both through the after effect, pressing a soft kiss to her lips before pulling out and rolling onto the mattress with a grunt.

“Do you want to talk about it?” he asked, still panting slightly.

Elain hurried her face in the pillow. “No,” she murmured. The embarrassment was back, a sickening twist of her stomach.

Lucien ran his fingers up and down her bare spine soothingly. “Did you not like it?” She could hear the frown in his voice.

She turned her head a fraction so she could just see Lucien out of the corner of her eye. “Would it be weird if I did?”

“Only if you think it’s weird I did.”

Elain rolled over fully, sliding over in the bed to rest her head in the crook where Lucien’s head met his shoulder.

“So we’re doing it again?” Elain asked tentatively.

Lucien wrapped his hand around her waist and lifted her over him so fast Elain let out an involuntary shriek. She glanced down to see he was already half hard again and Lucien gave her a wink with his good eye.

“Only if you’re going to ride Daddy like a good girl.”

#elucien #acotar #elucien fanfiction #elucien fanfic #elain x lucien #acotar fanfic #acotar fanfiction #elain archeron #lucien vanserra

[where-theres-smoak-2]

Riverdale 5x02 Review.

So I’m really late with this review I know, to be honest I was undecided about whether I was even going to write it because well this wasn’t my favourite episode and I try to avoid being too negative and this review did feel like I was being very negative and repeating alot of the issues that I had brought up in other posts and reviews but ultimately I decided that I had said I was going to review Season 5 and despite it not being my favourite episode I thought there were still some really great moments in there which I would like to talk about but overall I do feel like there were some plotlines that were too rushed and just not fleshed out properly. Also I can’t watch episode 3 until tomorrow morning where I am it’s like 1 am at the moment so figured I’d kill the time by writing this. But anyway lets get into it and as always these are just my own opinions you are welcome to disagree but please be respectful and obviously there are spoilers. 

Archie

So first I want to talk about Archie’s storyline. So here’s the thing I kind of feel like Archie has had PTSD since the blackhood shot his dad all the way back in season 2. I think each new bad thing that happened only contributed to it, going to jail and being forced to fight in the underground ring, being attacked by the bear and nearly dying, the whole survive the night thing with penelope, then his dad being killed by a reckless kid. Just one of those things would be traumatising let alone all of them at once. I also feel like he has never really dealt with any of that trauma properly until this episode when it all just spills over. I think KJ did an amazing job with this storyline. I think alot of his pain this episode stems from his father’s death. Archie is having all these big milestones that he should be sharing with his father but can’t. I mean he’s just had prom without his dad there, graduation is coming up and so Archie who already misses his dad is probably missing him even more. Then on top of that he gets this video tape that takes him right back to when he felt the weakest and he has to confront all of the anger and pain that wells back up again. To start wth Archie tries to work through the feelings with physical excerise, punching his boxing bag or going for a run, working out in his gym but when that doesn’t help he starts to have angry outbursts. I mean Archie has alot on his plate at the moment, not only is he trying to work through his feelings about his dad not being there for these big moments , he doesn’t know yet if he’s even going to be able to graduate with his friends and then there’s the whole having feelings for betty and veronica and that mess plus his mum asking if he wants to write the letter for the guy who killed his dad. I think Archie said it best when Betty asked him if something was wrong and he replied what isn’t wrong. Also I’m sorry to say this but a really hated that scene. Not because of Archie snapping at Betty but because it made me a little irritated at Betty. I mean Betty at this point knows that Veronica found the song Archie wrote for Betty and that he doesn’t know if he’s going to graduation and she’s standing there with her arms wrapped around the guy she chose over Archie asking him if there is something wrong, I don’t know it just seemed like both an insenistive and kinda dumb thing for Betty to say. I want to make it clear that I’m not hating on Betty here we all have flaws and I think its more an issue with the writing than anything else but yeah that scene irritated me a bit. Also it did show us that whilst Veronica is still very much sticking to the lets pretend everything is fine plan Archie clearly is not comfortable with the plan and it does seem to me like he feels alot of guilt about lying. In my opinion Archie is the kind that whilst he makes mistakes he likes to own up to them and tell the truth so not telling Jughead the truth doesn’t feel right to him and I think this is frustrating him and the only reason he hasn’t come clean is because of Betty. Another issue I had with Archie’s storyline this episode is something that I’ve talked about before several times and it’s one of the shows biggest flaws in my opinion which is the storylines and characters not crossing over at all. I mean its pretty obvious in this scene that Archie is struggling at the moment and you’d think that having seen this his friends would reach out to him and try to support him and yet just like last episode there is practically no interaction between the core four in this episode. I mean even something as simple as one of them trying to ring Archie and him not picking up and then one them saying they are worried about him would do, something as little as a couple of lines of dialogue to show that his friends are concerned for him but instead it just came across as his friends either didn’t care about what he was going through or were too wrapped up in their own lives to notice that Archie needed them.

One of my favourite scenes was when Mr Augustine comes to see Archie and ask him to write the letter for his son instead and Archie makes that speech about how he understands that his son made a mistake when he hit his dad and that it was something Archie could have done himself but that the one thing Archie wouldn’t have done was keep driving. I do think this is true like I said before Archie is someone who will own up to and try to make his mistakes right. I think this scene also really showed how much pain Archie is in and how he is struggling with forgiving the son despite understanding that the son had made a mistake. I just think KJ’s acting in this scene was soo good and he hit the right balance between anger and pain. 

Another scene that I thought was really heartbreaking was when Archie comes home and finds his mum watching the tape. I just felt so bad for Mary seeing what Fred and Archie went through because of the Black Hood and her realising just how much trauma her son was keeping inside. My heart really broke for her when she said ‘I need to know what’s going on inside of you.’ This poor woman can see how much her son is struggling but he’s keeping it all inside and I know how scaring it is when you know someone is in pain but they are hiding it and you don’t know what’s going on inside their head. Also I find it so sad that Archie still feels like he was a coward and that he let his dad down. It’s after this conversation that Archie really goes over the edge though and smashes up the tv and then his uncle shows up and I think his uncle knew whated he needed, that he needed to get the anger out however I’m not so sure the method of letting Archie beat the living crap out of him was the best but I spose it seemed to work and again it really wrenched at my heart when Archie finally broke down crying hugging his uncle also I did get chills when the camera panned to the punching bag and you see that its covered in blood where Archie has been hitting it so much that his hands have bled. 

Ok so now I want to talk about my absolute favourite part of the episode, Archie’s letter to the judge. I full on teared up when I heard it like everything about it was perfect and I just know Fred would have been so proud of his son for writing it but the one line that really made me cry was the line ‘Fred Andrews believed in lifting up those around him and in second chances.’ If you could sum up Fred Andrews in one sentence it would be this one because Fred was always supporting those around him and trying to help them achieve their best. 

Charles and The Auteur Mystery

If Archie’s storyline was my favourite of the episode then this was my least favourite. My biggest issue with it was how rushed it was also the reveals were really underwhelming in my opinion. So this sotryline is kicked off with Betty and Jughead getting a call at 3am from Bret telling them he has information and asking to be moved to Solitary. But when Betty and Jughead go to visit him the next day and discover he’s been brutally murdered. At first they think it was David who killed him but then David himself shows up dead in what looks like an apparent suicide. But then the mystery thickens when Donna calls Betty afraid and on the run because someone is killing the Stonies and tells Betty that Joan is dead too and she thinks she is next and that it is connected to them trying to kill Jughead. Betty of course is having none of it and puts the phone down on her. But the next day she trys to get a hold of Joan and finds out that she really was killed by someone bashing her head in with a rock. So we reach the reveal of Charles being a serial killer. I full on rolled my eyes at this reveal. I hated it no other way to put it I just straight up hated and not just because I really like Charles’ character and seeing his relationship with Jughead and Betty grow but because it made little sense and wasn’t properly explored. To me it almost seemed like they got to this episode and then suddenly remembered that plot point where Charles visited Chic in prison and thought crap how do we explain that oh I know lets just have him murder some people in this episode and say he’s a serial killer that’s shocking right? Except it wasn’t shocking at all. Especially when by this point in the episode Hermosa had killed three people and Penelope had wiped out at least six people who happened to be her own family all because they weren’t letting her daughter get her own way. And then they expect me to be shocked that Charles killed two people and asked his boyfriend to kill a third. Also at least Charles had a fairly decent motive unlike Penelope, he killed the Stonies because they had tried to hurt his little brother and pin it on his little sister and most of them got away with it and he killed David because he was helping Bret but I also think that him letting Jelly Bean have access to those tapes could have played a part into it, I mean it is like Charles says he only kills horrible people who hurt the ones that he loves, and he does seem to be very protective of his siblings, it’s sweet in a very dark twisted kind of way. But like I said this plotline had no build up at all. I mean the whole Stonie’s murder mystery was started and ended in this episode they could have done it so much better just by moving things around a little. If they had revealed that Joan had been killed in an earlier epsiode for example. Maybe right after Jughead discovered the tape of masked Betty hitting masked Jughead over the head. How much creepier would have been for them to see that tape and then right after find out that Joan had been killed by a rock to the head? Not only would it have heighted the mystery of the tapes but it would have introduced the new mystery of who was killing the preppy’s sooner. Then they could have had Bret die 5x01 after Betty and Jughead went to see him they could have gotten that phone call they got in this episode and then found out he had been killed. Then have the final murder have David happen in this episode and the reveal that Charles was the one behind it. The mystery would only have been a few episodes longer but at least it woul dhave given us as an audience time to one get invested in the mystery and two actually wonder who could be behind it like we did with the video tapes. Also another thing that disappointed me was the lack of reaction from Charles’ family, like they hardly react at all, we don’t see Alice and FP’s reaction to the news either so again that was really underwhelming. But I think the thing that bothers me the most about this particular storyline is that if you took it out it would make no difference to the plot. Like this plot point of Charles being a serial killer changed nothing and was so unnecessary. But it’s ok I know a way they can fix this (just as a disclaimer they are not going to do this but its a fun idea so) I am chosing to believe that there is another twist to the story and that actually Charles is a victim and actually innocent in this, I’m choosing to believe that the Farmies, through Chic hypnotised Charles to kill the Stonies and David because Evelyn was working with them in the plot to kill Jughead and frame Betty and when they heard Bret was talking to Betty and Jughead they decided to tie up some loose ends and get rid of the Stonies. Also they wanted to get revenge on Betty and Alice for their roles in Edgar’s death and Evelyn’s imprisonment and so decided taking Charles away from them was the right price for them to pay. Yes I know it’s got some holes in it but I still think it’s a better storyline than the one we got so I’m sticking with it. In all seriousness though despite not likely how his character turned out I do hope we see Charles again. It is possible that maybe a little down the line they’ll give him a redemption arc I mean in Riverdale is murder really that terrible of a crime? I think the saddest part for me about this reveal is that I feel like Charles played a big part in helping Betty overcome her fears around having the serial killer genes because she knew her big brother had them too and he had his stuff together and was a respected FBI agent and if he could live a normal life and not go around killing everyone because he has these genes then she can too. Now they’ve taken that away from her which is probably going to make her doubt again and make her feel like a ticking timebomb. I just don’t think its necessary to make every person who comes into these characters lives evil. Also it is a rehash of the whole evil brother thing that they did with Chic and I said way back when Charles first started acting a little shady that I hoped they wouldn’t do a repeat of that storyline because that’s just boring and that’s exactly what they did. It would have just been so much more interesting to have him be morally grey but not a full out phsycho who kills people. Anyway I think I have ranted on long enough about this topic so lets move on to another underwhelming plot reveal. 

Jelly Bean is behind the tapes. See this is one that really should have been shocking. But again the way it was written just made it seem so underwhelming. Like the reason for her doing it was so weak, she didn’t want Jughead to go to college. Also I wasn’t hyped on the way the characters just shrugged it off like she full on terroised the whole town not just Jughead she brought Archie’s trauma back up causing him to pretty much have a break down this episode so she better march herself over to the Andrews house with a really good apology and start saving up to buy them a new TV because that’s the least she could do. Instead she just says she’s sorry to FP and gets a hug. I get the whole message they are saying here that Riverdale has created this situation were kids are doing really dark things but because of the amount of trauma they are put through they have got to the point when they themselves don’t even recognise when they are doing something really dark. I just think it could have been better written. Especially because other than Jelly Bean we didn’t know who any of the other people are in those videos. They mention that she had been hanging out with Ricky again and he was the one who started helping her with the tapes, they could have easily put a scene or two in where we saw them hanging out together even if it was just quick shots of them in the background of other scenes like we spot them sitting together in a booth at Pop’s. At least that would have given some build up to the reveal but again like Charles’ it kinda came out of nowhere. Also is it just me or are there a lot of people invested in what’s going on with Jughead I mean there’s Jelly Bean making the tapes, Charles murdering people for even daring to attempt to hurt a hair on his baby brother’s head and Veronica who pretending to still be with her ex to spare Jughead the pain of knowing his girlfriend cheated on him. Look I love Juggie too I’m just not sure he’s worth this much trouble especially as they are doing more to make his life more complicated than making things better for him as they are intending. Come on guys Juggie is a big boy you’ve got to let him deal with his own problems. Also as a side note I did find it kind of funny that when Jughead decided to tell FP about Jelly Bean he took his alcoholic Father for drinks, though it does look like whilst Jughead is drinking alcohol FP looks like he’s drinking water. 

Blossom and Lodge Family Drama     

 Ok these two plotlines I’ll be honest I didn’t care a whole lot about it was just kind of the same old stuff we’ve seen before. I did like the Lodge woman all banding together and standing up to Hiram and I love that Hermione finally grew a backbone and decided to divorce Hiram. But I must confess their plot to overthrow Hiram and the way they went about it was kind of dark I mean Hermosa literally arranged to have their own father beat up. I do think that maybe Hermosa has an ulterior motive to wanting to overthrow Hiram and if she sticks around in season 5 I could see her becoming an even worse villan than Hiram though it does seem like from some interviews with KJ that Hiram is going to be taking all that extra time to make Riverdale even more of a mess than it is already so we’ve got that to look forward to. 

As for the Blossom storyline again I didn’t care a great deal about it. I think it’s sweet that Cheryl is trying to right the wrongs her family has committed over the years by creating sanctuary land for the Uktena people. I also find it hilariuosly over the top that when they refuse and Cheryl tells her mother her mother’s respose is to just straight up kill them all. Especially as Penelope usually only does something if it benefits her and I’m not really sure how this will benefit Penelope unless it’s just an oppurtunity to revenge kill the family. Again I feel like there is probably more to this plotline and that it is somehow going to come back to bite Cheryl in the butt but only time will tell. Other than that I don’t really have much to say about these storylines. 

Theories for episode 3 

So my theories for 5x03 are 

1) FP will leave Riverdale with Jelly Bean to protect her from the town’s corruption and hopefully get her plenty of therapy. 

2) Betty will finally tell Jughead about her kiss with Archie. I really hope she is the one to tell him and that he doesn’t hear it from someone else. And I also really hope that he does find out because it’s starting to seem like he won’t and I don’t think that’s fair to Jughead and honestly will make me think less of Betty. 

3) Betty and Jughead will break up realising that with the distance they won’t make it especially as the trust between them has broken due to her kissing Archie again, if he can’t trust her when they are in the same town then how can they make it work when they are apart. 

4) Betty and Archie still won’t talk to each other and that’s gonna really annoy me. I mean they’ve only been friends since childhood so why would they need a one on one scene right. 

5) Kevin and Fangs might finally confirm their relationship. 

6) There are going to be lots of moments that are going to make me cry. 

7) There will be no mention of Charles or the effect him being a serial killer had on the family at all. 

8) Cheryl will be arrested for her uncle and maybe the rest of her family’s murders. 

9) There will be lots of references to Fred and maybe Archie saying goddbye at his grave before leaving for the army and that’s defo going to make me cry.

10) The last few minutes of the episode will be a flashforward of Betty with the gun and will set up the new mystery. 

So that’s it for now, I’m gonna be staying out of the Riverdale tag now as like I said earlier I’m not going to be able to watch the episode for hours yet where I am it doesn’t come on to Netflix til about 8-10am in the UK. 

#riverdale #riverdale review

[rootintootinshootinmagoo-blog]

Me in Mind - Chapter 1

Carlisle x Reader

Pairing: Carlisle X Reader

Warnings: Some violence and death. Typical vampire tomfoolery. Not super informed on the Twilight timeline. The Twiline, if you will. Also, this is Esme erasure. I am so sorry.

Summary: Reader is happy to have her sister back in Forks for a while. However, it sets off a chain of events that lead to her being involved with a handsome doctor, a strange family, and a world she didn’t think existed. Why do she and Carlisle Cullen seem to be gravitating towards each other, and what does her strange talent for influencing memory have to do with any of it?

(read intro to story posted on my blog first)

Chapter 1

Despite your intentions of calling Dr. Cullen the following day, you ended up meeting him in person a few hours later. Your dad, Charlie, called you from his car sounding panicked. He was talking fast, and you managed to catch “Bella”, “school”, and “car accident”. You grabbed your keys off the table and rushed to the hospital. You told the nurse at the front desk that you were family, and she checked your ID before pointing you in the right direction.

The first thing you saw after pushing through the double doors was your dad giving Tyler a piece of his mind and Bella protesting.

“Bella!”

Both Charlie and Bella’s heads snapped up. She groaned and put her face in her hands. “Does every single person in Forks know I’m here?!”

“Are you okay- is she okay?” You turned to your dad.

“She’s fine,” Bella said, earning an eye roll from Charlie.

A man walked through the doors at the end of the hall and approached your group. Walked wasn’t really the word. He glided across the linoleum without so much as a squeak from his black sneakers. He exuded charm and grace without even opening his mouth. His dark gold eyes fell on your family. As he passed you, he gave you a sidelong glance. He seemed surprised, almost moved, before schooling his face back into a passive expression of friendliness.

“I heard Chief Swan’s daughter was here,” he said, walking to Bella’s side and began asking her questions about the accident.

Tyler began stuttering another apology before Charlie yanked the privacy curtain in front of him.

Your dad had greeted the man as Dr. Cullen. He looked young, not much older than yourself. Despite living in Forks, you hadn’t had the opportunity to meet him in the few years the Cullens had lived here. The fact that this young man was the adoptive dad of your previous classmates was bizarre.

Dr. Cullen cleared Bella to go home and said a brief goodbye to the three of you. As he passed you on his way out, he gave you another lingering stare, brow furrowed. It was strange, but you thought maybe he’d just seen you in town or something and was trying to place you.

Charlie asked you to drive Bella home. There weren’t any signs of a concussion, but neither of you wanted to take any chances. As you and Bella went to exit the hospital, you saw Rosalie, Edward, and Dr. Cullen with their heads together. They were whispering about something, but as soon as they saw you, they stopped talking.

Bella looked up at you. “Can you hang back for a minute? I want to talk to Edward.”

“Sure,” you said.

Dr. Cullen quietly asked Rosalie to wait in his office and turned his gaze to you. His smile was tight, and you wondered what they’d been talking about.

“Can I speak with you?” He asked softly, walking towards you while Edward and Bella stepped away.

He was way too good looking.

“Uh, hi.” You offered your hand. “I’m Y/N.”

He took your hand in both of his. “Yes, I know.”

“Oh.” You said lamely. His hands were freezing, but so was the hospital.

He stayed quiet, holding your hand and keeping your gaze.

“You said you wanted to talk to me?” you asked, feeling awkward.

“Ah,” he cleared his throat and let go of your hand. “Yes, sorry. You are the same Y/N Swan who knew Cynthia, correct?”

“That’s me.”

His eyes locked onto where your fingers were twirling the beaded bracelet around your wrist and smiled sympathetically.

“I’m sorry for your loss. From what she told me, you were quite close.”

“Uh,” you felt your voice get a little shaky. “Yes, I actually just found out today. I was going to call you tomorrow.”

“I didn’t realize, or I would have waited a while to ask you about it. My apologies.”

“No, no. That’s okay. One of the nurses at the home mentioned Cynthia asked you to tell me something. Would you have some time to talk in the next couple of weeks, or?”

“That’s what I wanted to ask you about. Would you be able to meet me Saturday?”

“Oh- I, yeah, I’m free Saturday.”

“Coffee?”

“I could- look, Dr. Cullen-“

“Please, call me Carlisle.” He shot back without a pause.

You felt like your head was spinning. “I really don’t want to inconvenience you. I’m fine with a phone call.”

“If you’d be more comfortable.”

Now you were confused. You didn’t know why he’d want to discuss it with you over coffee, on a weekend no less. But you did want to get coffee with him. You had to remind yourself it was just to talk about Cynthia.

“I…” you started.

He only looked at you kindly.

“We could get coffee Saturday.” You finished in a tiny voice.

“Perfect,” he said. “Text me where you’d prefer to meet. I have to go. It was lovely to meet you.”

“I- lovely too-“

You swore the expression he made was almost cheeky. He turned on his heel with the grace of a ballet dancer and walked away down the hall.

You stood there for a moment, dazed, as Bella and Edward came up behind you. Edward gave you a curious look before following Dr. Cullen down the hall.

“You still think he’s a cult leader?” Bella looked at you, eyebrows raised.

“I’m undecided.”

“What did you guys talk about.”

“Uh.” You walked out with Bella to the car. “Well, we’re getting coffee Saturday.”

“Okay, that- that’s not fair.” Bella said.

“What?”

“I almost get hit by a car, and you get a date.”

“Bella!”

She climbed into the passenger seat of your little Honda. “I’m just saying.”

“Well, it’s not a date. One of the residents from the old folks’ home passed away. Apparently, she had a message for me or something.”

Bella bit her lip and pushed her hair behind her ear. “Y/N, I’m sorry, I didn’t realize…”

“It’s alright, Bells. It was her time.” You looked over at her. “I’m just glad you’re alright. That was crazy. Edward really pushed you out of the way?”

“Well, he-“ she cut herself off, looking out the window.

“He what?”

“You’ll just think I’m crazy too.”

“You know you can tell me anything, even if it is crazy.”

She shrugged. “It’s just...” She took a moment to think about what she was going to say before turning her body towards you. “I know how this sounds, okay? It’s just, I swear he stopped the car.”

“Tyler?”

“No, Edward! He reached out and stopped the car with his hand. There was a dent and everything!” Bella said, holding her hands apart to show the size of the dent.

“Are you sure he actually touched the car? Maybe he just held his hand out as the car stopped.”

She went on like you hadn’t said anything. “And right when the car was about to hit me, he was across the parking lot. It was like he teleported.”

“There was a lot going on.”

“No, I knew you’d say that.”

You sighed. “I’m sorry. I think we both just need to take a break.”

Bella nodded, but it seemed reluctant.

“But you know what,” you said. “I’ve been saying this whole time that family was weird. So who knows.”

“You’re just saying that.”

“Cults do drugs and stuff like that.”

“Oh my gosh, shut up. Just enjoy your date with Doctor call-me-Carlisle Cullen.”

“It’s not a date, but you know what, Bells? I think I will.”

By the time Saturday rolled around, you were actually a little nervous. You’d texted Carlisle like he’d asked with the address of a coffee shop in town you knew as well as what time worked for you. All he sent back was ‘looking forward to it’ which frustratingly could be taken as both professional and flirtatious.

“It’s just to talk about Cynthia.” You muttered as you put your hair up then took it back down, unable to decide what looked better.

“Leave it down.”

You jumped and turned to see Bella leaning on your doorframe. “What?”

“You want him to think you’re pretty. Leave it down.”

You picked at your hair and outfit nervously. “It’s not like that.”

“Whatever.”

“I probably won’t even see him again.” You started to put your hair back up.

“Just go. Please. And stop that.” She smacked at your hand. “I know you like it better down.”

“Ow! I can have my hair up if I want to.”

“Just-“ She pulled your hair out of the hair tie and put it on her wrist. “Just get in your car. And give me details later.”

“Yes, ma’am.”

She sighed and toyed with a makeup brush on your desk. “You know I just want you to be happy, right?”

“Aw, Bells. I am happy. I get to see you and dad every day, and I’m saving up for college.”

“I know, I just don’t want you to be trapped in Forks forever.”

“I won’t be. And neither will you. Besides. Let’s just enjoy it while we can.”

It was almost 2PM when you pulled up to the café. It was a hole in the wall place in Forks’ meager downtown area among book shops and thrift stores. You’d been visiting there since high school, ever since Charlie bought you your first car.

You walked in the door and the little bell jingled. The owner, Mary, looked up and smiled at you, jerking her head towards the couple of couches at the back of the shop. There was Carlisle, draped over a plush sofa like an alarmingly lifelike H&M mannequin. He already had a coffee in a takeaway cup with a lid.

He saw you walk over and stood to greet you, clasping your hand in his. You noticed once again that his hands were freezing. It made sense in the chilly hospital, but the café was warm, a little too warm even, and the contrast struck you as odd.

“What can I get you?” He asked, heading towards the counter.

“Oh, no, no, you don’t have to do that.” You said quickly. This was just making things more confusing.

“Please, allow me. It’s the least I can do for asking you to meet me on a weekend.”

So now he was back to friendly professional.

“I guess, um…”

He just kept looking at you with that interested smile.

You gave in and told him your coffee order, and when you turned to walk back to the sofa, he offered you his arm. You took it awkwardly, certain that your face was bright red.

“What did you get?” you asked after sitting.

“Cappuccino.”

“Ah.”

He smiled. “I’m sure you’re wondering what Cynthia had to say to you. Again, I know this must be difficult. She was your friend.”

“It’s alright,” you said.

He regarded you kindly.

You brushed some hair behind your ear. “Well, I guess it isn’t. But I know it was just her time.”

He nodded. “Well, essentially, what she wanted to relay was her gratitude. She told me that you made her time there easier. I understand she was losing her memory, having difficulty remembering family members, friends, details from her own life.”

“Yeah. It never seemed like that to me though. She was always telling me stories about her kids and about when she was younger. Or just things that had happened the week before.”

Mary called your name from the counter. You moved to get up, but Carlisle beat you to it, urging you to sit. He came back, pressing the warm mug to your hands.

He continued on with his thought. “She mentioned that when you were around, she remembered things better. That was rather interesting to me.”

“I think she just liked the company. Having someone to talk to seems to make the residents a little brighter.”

“Maybe.” He said, raising his cup to his lips. “I’m sure they appreciate your time.”

“I think so. I enjoy spending time with them.”

He placed his cup down. “I’ll admit, I’m surprised we’ve never met. Although I suppose I’m glad.”

You looked up from your coffee in alarm.

“It just means you haven’t had much call to go to the hospital.” He had that cheeky smile again.

“Ah,” you laughed, “That’s true. I actually went to school with your kids. I was a year ahead most of them.”

“Oh really?”

“Mhm.” You didn’t really think there was a tactful way to ask why a man who looked 23 had teenagers. He seemed to catch your meaning.

“It’s an odd situation, I’ll give you that.”

You averted your eyes in embarrassment, but his easy chuckle told you he didn’t take offence.

“They needed someone. We’re a strange but happy family.”

“Or you’re Batman.”

He laughed loudly at that, flashing his perfect teeth and tilting his head back. “I can’t tell if you’re joking, but I am not Batman. We are, for all intents and purposes, normal.” He took a long drink from his coffee.

“Might I risk being forward by asking you a personal question?” He said.

“Shoot.”

“Are you currently seeing anyone?”

Your eyes widened. “I’m not- No. Not currently.”

His smile widened. “Would you mind if I gave you a call later to see if we could possibly meet again?”

“That-“ you tried to hide your smile by tilting your head down and looking away. You could feel your heart working overtime.

“Yeah, I think that would be nice.” You said.

“You do?”

“Yes. I’d like that.”

“Perfect.” His cold hand came to rest on your warm one gripping your mug. “I’ll call you. Or if you can’t wait, you can call me.”

“Dr. Cullen.” You laughed.

“I think it’s safe for you to call me Carlisle.”

“Carlisle.”

“Thank you.” He grinned at you. “I’ve enjoyed this. Unfortunately, I do need to be going. Please, enjoy your coffee. I look forward to seeing you again.”

“Me too. Thanks for the caffeine.” You said, raising your mug.

“Of course.”

He picked up his coat he’d draped over the back of the couch, the sound of the bell and Mary yelling goodbye ushering him out.

It wasn’t until you’d collected your wits that you realized he’d left his coffee cup. When you were ready to go, you picked it up to throw it away and were surprised to find it oddly full despite the fact that he’d been drinking from it the whole time.

You hesitated. He was just a regular guy, right? You weren’t going to make this weird. You contemplated it for a minute but were unable to stave off your curiosity. You popped the white lid off the top. The cup was still brimming with coffee. Was he really just pretending to drink the it? Maybe he hadn’t liked it? You shook your head. It was weird, but it was hardly something malicious. Oh well. It was something to think about. You threw out the two cups before heading home. Bella would be very interested to hear how your coffee meeting went.

#still figuring out formatting #finally have an actual summary #twilight #reader #x reader #carlisle x reader #twilight x reader #reader insert #carlisle cullen

[aching-tummies]

Chocolate Indulgence

Ever had one of those moments where you're staring down a food-item you know is going to absolutely wreck your stomach...but you know you'll eat it anyway?

Most of the people I know that have a dairy-sensitivity (e.g. lactose, rectin, etc.) tend to have moments like that frequently. They know eating cheese is going to cause Satan-himself to reach in and clench their stomach in his vice-like grip, but one does not simply say 'no' to pizza. Then there's the ones that ensure they've got dibs on the closest washroom before they shovel ice-cream or a milkshake into their system and that particular washroom becomes a hazmat zone for the next three hours. I've seen the latter used with purpose too when this particular someone I knew was pretty backed-up while travelling. He was out with some friends when he realized it'd been quite a while since he had last went no.2. His friends knew about his dairy-sensitivity and their eyes widened when he ordered something with dairy from the shiftiest-looking vendor in the area (he was also a huge germaphobe, so the fact that he went even 3 ft near that vendor already caused jaws to drop). He chugged it, asked his friends to wait around the area for a solid hour or two, and then proceeded to violate the public washroom. He came back looking like the definition of ‘relief’ just as his friends had started to think he had died ‘cuz they didn’t expect him to be in the washroom that long.

While not as dramatic, I sort of had one of these moments last night. Of course, it wasn't just that one moment that led to that, it was a whole day of events that led up to the moment.

I started the day going out to have breakfast with a family member before heading off to work. A favorite fast-food chain had recently opened a location near our place and near the place I worked so we decided to go there for breakfast/lunch, whatever you want to call it. I've been eating less recently, being busy and anxious about work and some other life-stuff...also with my work being at non-consistent hours my family member ends up eating without me and most of the time I'm too exhausted to bother cooking for myself. I live with some fairly judgemental family members who go off on me if I don't clean up properly when they say so and cooking for myself just becomes more of a hassle than it's worth. E.g. I'll make some instant noodles for myself and before I've even taken the first bite they'll come over and start screeching about how I left a cooking utensil in the sink rather than clean it and leave it out to dry before I sat down to eat. I was already eating straight out of the pot I was cooking the thing in, the utensil was a butter-knife I used to get some XO sauce or whatever out of the jar and into the pot...and the butter knife wasn't necessary or useful for eating the noodles. My plan was to leave it in the sink and wash everything all at once in about 20 minutes when I had finished my food. I didn't want to deal with the screeching after hours of dealing with customers and co-workers screeching at me to do a task while I was in the middle of doing another task someone else had screeched at me to do, so I've opted to roll with being hungry for the last few days. My usual routine was wake up, get ready, make a quick breakfast to get me through my shift, come home and stay out of the way until dinner time with my family--if there was going to be a shared dinner-time, and then go to bed.

Yesterday was basically the same. I had breakfast at a fast-food restaurant with a family member who was kind enough to drop me off at work. After work I decided to come home rather than eat out after work (I wanted to save some money). I went home and was already pretty hungry but dinner wasn't going to be for another four or more hours. I ended up taking a nap, realizing after I woke up that I had managed to get through the day without drinking coffee, and that was probably why I ended up napping. I got downstairs to find that my family member had opted to cook for themselves, meaning I was on my own for dinner. I grabbed something small and self-contained to avoid being yelled at for making a mess and went about my business. Hours later, I was getting ready for bed. I couldn't sleep 'cuz my stomach had been growling at me since I started brushing my teeth. I was fairly awake from the nap I had taken so I decided, "screw it--I'll grab something to eat and watch a movie or something before I go to sleep".

What to eat, right? After days of being hungry after work, I decided I deserved a treat. I was really craving something sweet, but the only thing that satisfied that sweet tooth was some coffee I had in the fridge...which I was definitely not going to indulge in. I wanted to sleep eventually and coffee at 2AM was ridiculous. What else is sweet and goes almost hand-in-hand with coffee? Chocolate. Pancakes would make a mess, mug-cake was an option but I didn't want to measure out everything...also, one of my family members has been pretty snarky about finding flour on the counters. Some of it is from them, but since I'm the one that's always making home-made pasta and other types of noodles it's always my fault if there's a powdery substance on the counters. I didn't want to just outright eat chocolate chips like I usually do 'cuz I had already brushed my teeth and felt bad about eating something that would stick to my teeth and add to decay. In the end, I opted for a mug of hot chocolate. I was craving something sweet, specifically chocolate, and hot chocolate fit the bill. If I rinsed my mouth with some water after drinking it then it’d probably be okay.

My usual method is dumping the packet into a mug, filling it about 2/3 of the way with hot water, stirring until the powder is dissolved, and then topping up the final 1/3 with cold 2% milk. The milk makes it richer as well as cools down the contents enough to drink. I hesitated a little about adding the milk, the boba-incident fresh in my mind. I decided "screw it. I don't have to work tomorrow" and I added the milk to the mug. I decided to indulge further. It's been a crappy week walking on eggshells at home and at work and choosing to be hungry rather than listen to family members rant and yell over a bit of flour...so I found some nutella and added a generous spoonful to the hot chocolate. If you haven't tried this, you should (provided you don't have a nut allergy). I recommend dissolving the nutella in the hot-water/powder mix, prior to adding milk. The heat will allow it to melt that much faster. That mug of hot chocolate was heavenly.

I took the mug upstairs and put on something to watch while I enjoyed my chocolate-y treat. A couple of hours later, I was ready for bed.

As I lay down, waiting to sleep, I felt an odd sensation in my stomach. It wasn't painful. It was just shy of uncomfortable. It was an odd feeling I couldn't place. Was I still hungry? Were my guts unhappy with the little bit of dairy in the hot chocolate? It felt like a mild pressure around my navel-area, but my stomach was definitely empty too. I rubbed my stomach a little, staying awake for a while monitoring the feeling, hoping that it wouldn't be a repeat of the boba incident. I didn't have to work the next day, but I didn't want to go about the whole day feeling like a painfully bloated basketball. I don't know if it was gas from the dairy 'cuz I couldn't burp and I didn't feel any gurgles or gas-bubbles moving around under my palms. It wasn’t entirely like hunger either. It felt like there was something sitting in my guts...not painfully, but just present, and my stomach was undecided about whether this something meant it was allowed to be hungry or not. I guess my stomach was confused. It was so late that it was early, usually an hour where everything is asleep, there was dairy somewhere slightly bloating up my guts, but it was also hungry. I had downed dairy on an empty stomach and it was confused...was it supposed to still be hungry? Was it supposed to go to sleep? Was the dairy going to be a problem? To growl or not to growl? 

Definitely not as dramatic as something my dairy-sensitive friends have gone through, but that's what I thought about while I was soothing my stomach before going to sleep. I added the milk to my hot chocolate, wary that it would upset my stomach. Whatever that feeling was, at least it allowed me to sleep. I was still hungry, seeing as the only solid food I had to eat was over 14 hours ago and it was the 'empty calories' of fast food, but at least I didn't have to contend with the gnawing hunger as I tried to sleep. I didn’t add a whole lot of milk into the hot chocolate, so it wasn’t enough to cause some major indigestion. Not sure if this happens to other people too, but I've found that when I sleep on a hungry stomach I wake up with a corner of my pillow in my mouth and a loud and cramping stomach demanding I fill it before it plays the 'nausea' card. I didn't want to spend my day off feeling hungry, nauseous, and contending with indigestion.

As always, feel free to send asks in talking about tummy stuff. If it hits my kinks or I like it, I'll post the reply. If you don't see it odds are either that tumblr ate it or I'm not really interested in it and I can't contact you to say that if you're on-anon. Sometimes I’ll let the ask sit in my inbox for a while until I figure out how I’ll respond to it. I tend to be hungry fairly often lately, so if you ever wanna just send a stab in the dark hunger-RP-esque ask that’s totally fine. I’m not too big on the idea of teasing with food or overly patronizing banter, but tummy-centric stuff like manual stimulation of my hungry tummy for the growls/sensations or some way to torture my aching guts is usually something I’m down for. Hands on a suffering stomach are a pretty steady craving whenever I fall into kink-feels.  Navel-stuff is rare to see, but definitely welcome too. 

#tummy kink #hunger kink

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): This is usually the point in the primary season where the field has started to winnow — candidates who’ve had poor performances in Iowa or New Hampshire drop out. But no such luck this year. The debate stage tomorrow is actually getting larger, not smaller, if you can believe it.

But even though the field remains crowded, there’s an increasingly clear front-runner: Sen. Bernie Sanders. Sanders won, and he won pretty handily — he won the final, realigned popular vote by 21.6 points, so Sanders’s odds are pretty good in our model: He’s got a 45 percent shot of winning the majority of pledged delegates.

However, South Carolina, which is where the primary moves next, could be a bit of a curveball for Sanders, as it’s Biden — not Sanders — who is in the lead there. Things are really close, though, so it’s probably best thought of as a tie. But it also means the stakes at tomorrow’s debate are pretty high. Biden is banking on a strong performance and winning South Carolina, while other candidates like former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Amy Klobuchar need to demonstrate that they’re can build diverse coalitions, something they struggled to do in Nevada.

So what are you looking for going into tonight? Will the candidates finally attack Sanders as the front-runner?

perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): Buttigieg’s post-Nevada speech was basically a series of attacks on Sanders. Biden’s had some elements of that, too. Former Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg is coming after Sanders. Tom Steyer, too. Yes, I think this debate will have several people going hard after Sanders, looking really toward Super Tuesday.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): I think this whole week is gonna be CAN ANYONE STOP BERNIE SANDERS?!?!?!?!?!?!? week and that theme is likely to feature heavily at the debate.

The thing about Sanders is that he’s a pretty steady (if not always spectacular) debater and not the easiest guy to knock off-kilter.

And if it seems like everyone is attacking him, well, that plays into his message in certain ways.

sarahf: Yeah, and to Perry’s point, Buttigieg really didn’t mince words on Saturday when he told supporters that Sanders is waging an “inflexible ideological revolution that leaves out most Democrats.” But I’m struggling to wrap my head around how accurate that claim is. Buttigieg came in third in Nevada — significantly behind Sanders. So is Sanders’s “revolution” really leaving out most Democrats? Seems like a fair share of Democrats have been happy to vote for Sanders so far!

Buttigieg and the other moderates need to come up with something better, no?

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): It’s possible they need something better, but things might look different if a couple of the more moderate candidates got out of the way. Sanders might still lead the field — recent national polls suggest he would — but if a few folks dropped out, it would make it a lot clearer who the alternative to Sanders is. At the moment, there isn’t really one obvious answer to that question. Yet, there’s plenty of evidence that points to the idea that many Democrats might not want Sanders as the nominee. After all, Sanders only won between 25 to 34 percent of the initial popular vote in Iowa and Nevada (so before realignment), and just 26 percent overall in New Hampshire — not exactly an overwhelming share of support.

natesilver: I don’t know … a lot of Democrats do want a more moderate nominee, at least in the abstract. And many associate moderation with electability.

Calling Bernie out as being uncompromising is maybe not a bad line of attack either, since Democrats tend to like compromise.

perry: Ten days of sustained attacks on Sanders could dip his numbers. It would help if the other candidates maybe moved away from Medicare for All, which seems likely it’s decently popular among Democratic primary voters, and found ways to attack him on different issues, though.

natesilver: I do think there’s something about sustained vs. sporadic attacks that matters here.

Like, few things in politics are truly new. Bernie has been around for a while. But there’s always been some shinier object that was rising in the polls — Harris! Warren! Buttigieg! Bloomberg! — that was always more the center of attention, but now that’s changed with Sanders being truly at the center.

perry: Also, a big part of the next 10 days or so is the other candidates working to keep Sanders in the 25-to-33 percent range. But if Democratic voters start falling in line and accepting Sanders as the inevitable nominee, and he gets closer to 40 percent in some states, that would be bad for the others.

natesilver: Yeah, it sorta feels like part of what candidates may be hoping to do is to prevent him from rising further, rather than actually lowering his numbers.

Because he’s likely to get a bounce from Nevada, so even if he has a mediocre debate/the scrutiny hurts him a bit, it might just cancel that out — not actually make his numbers negative relative to where he stood, pre-Nevada.

geoffrey.skelley: I do wonder if the fact that the stage will be even more crowded plays into that to some extent, Nate. Because Steyer has made this debate, there’ll be seven participants this time around, so if you’re trying to stand out as the No.1 alternative to Sanders, that might be even harder. Especially because I assume Bloomberg will still get a lot of attention, even though his standing may have taken a hit after the last debate.

natesilver: It’s kind of a big moment for Sanders, Bloomberg AND Biden, since Biden clearly needs to win South Carolina.

But I do think we’re at the point now where it’s in the mutual interest of every other candidate for Sanders to struggle. There are no longer tactical considerations that outweigh that.

If Sanders gets say, 26 percent of the vote on Super Tuesday instead of 34 percent, that’s a big deal and makes it much more likely that someone else wins.

perry: What was useful last week, in attacking Bloomberg, was that the candidates said interesting stuff — like Warren demanding on stage that Bloomberg release women who were former employees of his company from non-disclosure agreements. So a smart approach from at least one of the non-Sanders candidates would be to attack him in a way that goes beyond questions of electability and Medicare For All, etc.

sarahf: Is it enough for Biden to win South Carolina at this point if the margin between him and Sanders is really close, though? Or does Biden really need it to be as decisive as, say, Nevada was for Sanders?

natesilver: Our model says that the margin matters at the margins, but it’s mostly winning that counts.

Now, if Biden wins by 20 points, maybe we’re in a situation where “it’s not clear who’s the favorite anymore” vs. if he wins by 2 points, the story is, “at least this is still interesting, but Sanders is still in the best position.”

If he LOSES by 2 points, though, it’s hard to see his campaign recovering, and it puts Sanders in a very, very good position.

perry: It would be ideal for Biden to win South Carolina and be the clear second-place finisher on Super Tuesday, so as to flush out the other candidates and get it down to a two-person race. But if come next Wednesday, Biden has won South Carolina and Alabama (two states that vote in the next 10 days that have large black Democratic electorates) but finished say, third or worse in California and Texas, that is not ideal for him — or the people who want Sanders to be defeated.

geoffrey.skelley: Obviously, an unexpectedly large margin would be good for Biden, and the media might be quite open to a comeback narrative, but it’s hard to know at this point how strong Biden’s lead is there.

One potential bit of good news for the Biden camp is that longtime South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, who is the highest ranking African American in Congress, may endorse Biden on Wednesday. This endorsement could be huge for Biden and would signal either that more black voters are ready to line up behind Biden, or it’d be enough to push some undecided black voters into Biden’s camp.

perry: Yeah, the CBS/YouGov poll released on Sunday suggested a fairly close race in South Carolina: Biden at 28 percent, Sanders 23 percent, and Steyer 18 percent.

But maybe a big push by black, pro-Biden officials like Clyburn and a sustained week of attacks on Sanders makes it less close. There is no big early voting drive in South Carolina like there was in Nevada, so the events of this week will matter.

natesilver: It’s a little hard to figure out where the conventional wisdom is on South Carolina. Do people see it as a toss-up? Or still as Biden’s state to win?

The polls are closer to a toss-up, although they slightly tilt toward Biden. It’s important to note, though, that we don’t have any post-Nevada polling yet.

I would also note that there’s a tendency for the polls in South Carolina to underrate the candidate who has more black support — namely Obama in 2008 and Clinton in 2016. Anecdotally, there seems to be some evidence that black voters are more likely to tell pollsters they’re undecided, and that seems to be true in South Carolina as well. In the Marist poll, for instance, 13 percent of black voters said they were undecided vs. 5 percent of whites.

geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, Nate, I realize this is anecdotal, but when I was down in South Carolina a week ago at a Biden event at a historically black church, a couple of voters told me they weren’t sure about supporting Biden, but they also didn’t really have another person they were considering.

perry: Sanders released his campaign schedule for this week, and at least as of right now, he is in Virginia on Saturday and South Carolina on Friday. On the other hand, Biden is in South Carolina both days. Sanders was also in Texas for the Nevada caucuses.

His team is super-focused on Super Tuesday, which is smart. But it also tells me that while they want to win South Carolina, they are not necessarily expecting a win, nor are they going to kill themselves to get one.

natesilver: According to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast, that strategy might be short-sighted, i.e., they’d be better off going for the kill in South Carolina because that makes it so hard for Biden to come back.

But maybe they aren’t super confident about their prospects in South Carolina and want to lower expectations. There’s this tendency to look at African American voters as a monolith when the ones in South Carolina are liable to be far more conservative than the ones in, say, Nevada, among whom Bernie did fairly well.

perry: The other weird thing about South Carolina is Steyer. I tend to think he will decline in the polls as the week goes forward, and that he will be closer to polling in the low teens than the high teens. But I also don’t know who his support would go to. But maybe I’m wrong, and he does really well. He has spent a lot of time in the state, particularly in courting black voters.

sarahf: Where does South Carolina leave the other candidate who aren’t Biden or Sanders, though? As we’ve said, it’s important Biden wins there because he’s made so much of his campaign about his ability to win black voters. But what if Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren all finish in the single digits again?

Do they power through to Super Tuesday, even though this will now be the second state where they’ve failed to build strong, diverse coalitions?

natesilver: Our model doesn’t think Buttigieg has much of a path, although it’s worth noting that he’s had pretty good results so far (1st/2nd/3rd or 2nd/2nd/3rd if you prefer) so it seems a little much for people to be asking that he should drop out. His problem is that there aren’t any Midwestern states on Super Tuesday except for Minnesota, where Klobuchar is a big problem for him. But he’s closed strongly relative to his polling averages in most states so, I dunno, I guess he’s just hoping to do so again.

Warren has a — somewhat good! — excuse to continue based on her post-debate polling looking stronger.

I don’t get what Klobuchar is doing. Or Steyer, frankly.

geoffrey.skelley: Warren remains not that far behind Biden and Bloomberg in national polls. Whereas, yeah, Klobuchar is at about 5 percent in our national polling average, and Steyer is at 2 percent. Even if Steyer gets a strong third in South Carolina, I don’t see a path opening up for him in Super Tuesday states.

perry: Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren should be in South Carolina some this week to prevent being cast as ignoring black voters. But they should try to do as little as possible there. Super Tuesday just has better opportunities for them than a state in the South where the majority of the electorate is black. Not to mention, Steyer has camped there for weeks.

natesilver: Having Super Tuesday SO close to South Carolina is sort of an important wrinkle in the scheduling.

And probably a flaw, I’d say.

sarahf: Wait, why a flaw, Nate?

natesilver: Because it doesn’t really give voters and the candidates time to react to South Carolina? Or, conversely, maybe you get a fleeting reaction that isn’t durable?

perry: I agree with Nate. The first state with a lot of black voters is scheduled when the candidates also have a lot of incentive to focus on Super Tuesday, and it’s just difficult to manage.

sarahf: It seems as if campaigning in the Super Tuesday states has been really hard across the board, and only Sanders and Bloomberg have done an OK job of it, especially in California and Texas, which are delegate-rich.

natesilver: Well, maybe more advertising than campaigning in Bloomberg’s case. There’s been some of the latter but a lot of the former, obviously.

And if Bloomberg continues to slump in the polls, we could be looking at a case where he finishes just UNDER 15 percent in most places, and therefore, receives few delegates of his own, but nonetheless takes away 13 to 14 percent of the vote from other moderates. That would be very, very, very helpful to Sanders.

Conversely, if Bloomberg gets 20 percent, he would at least win some delegates and lower Sanders’s total, which isn’t as good for Bernie.

geoffrey.skelley: With that in mind, I wonder if we see a lot of Bloomberg bashing again in this debate and maybe not quite as much Sanders bashing as you’d expect. Pushing Bloomberg down probably helps someone like Biden a fair bit, and obviously in the last debate he was the chief target of criticism.

sarahf: That’s a good point, Geoff. But some of what happens next seems to hinge on Biden actually pulling off a strong victory in South Carolina. With the field still so crowded it’s hard for me to understand how the “moderates” mount a credible threat to Sanders at this point, when they’re all still in the process of competing with each other. It seems like the kind of chaos that Sanders mainly benefits from. Is that fair?

natesilver: For what it’s worth, I don’t think whether the chaos benefits Sanders is as clear as people assume.

If you have so much chaos that you wind up with a contested convention, that doesn’t necessarily benefit Sanders!

And he isn’t necessarily an underdog if the race comes down to 1-on-1. He might be a favorite, in fact, in several of the matchups. Would you rather bet on Sanders or Mayor Pete head-to-head, for instance? I’d take Bernie.

You could also wind up with a scenario — if last week’s debate had a big impact — where the three most viable candidates going forward are Sanders, Warren and Biden, which is a “chaotic” scenario that is not so great for Sanders.

geoffrey.skelley: Sanders may be aided by a crowded field in that, many candidates won’t crack the 15 percent delegate mark statewide or in most districts. That means, if say, Sanders wins 30 percent statewide and in most districts while another candidate wins 15 percent exactly, with the rest splitting the vote and finishing under 15 percent, then Sanders ends up with about two-thirds of the delegates that state has to offer. In a place like California, that works out pretty well for him!

perry: I think the lane stuff is both relevant and not perfect. Do I think it would help Biden or Buttigieg if either were the only candidate against Sanders? Probably. But I absolutely do not think that Sanders would keep just his current 25 to 30 percent and Biden would get the other 70 percent. The reasons this field is so fractured and Sanders keeps winning are: 1) Sanders is pretty popular among Democrats, and 2) The center-left candidates all have some flaws (Buttigieg’s weak numbers among black and Latino voters, for example).

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