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#I have historically in the past refused to read translations because I insist on reading it in the original
hunxi-guilai · 3 years
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Could you recommend a translation of Dream of Red Mansions? I was reading a book on, uh, Su Shi, I think, and in the preface they said that Chinese lit is often mistranslated and cited DRM because apparently someone got the bright idea to translate the juicy bits and cut half the plot, so a lot of western readers went, "Wow, the ancient Chinese were kinky!" And, like, they were, but it's not all there is. But now I'm wary, lol.
r i p alas I am one of the worst people to ask for translation recommendations because I, er, don't read in translation
although going off the Wikipedia article, it looks like you just have the Hawkes/Minford vs. Yang/Yang translations to choose from, right? I haven't read either of them but I have read some of Hawkes' translations of the 《楚辞》 Chu Ci / Songs of the South, which aren't half bad (the man does research and hella annotations, and unfortunately I have not pursued enough 《楚辞》 scholarship to be able to offer a more critical review of his work)
sorry anon that's all I got
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mythopoeticreality · 4 years
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well, I... John Uskglass?!!??!?
Well, if you insist….xD
How I feel about this character
I mean….*sweeping gesture towards blog* I suppose you could say have something of an appreciation for him?
xD Nah, But seriously, from the very moment he appeared on that snowy Yorkshire moor in front of Childermass, I’ve loved this guy. Forget the scene, he stole the whole book! I love the mystery that surrounds him, how much of an enigma he is; I love that he is this incredible force of nature, this legend, this being that seems so Fae at times and so inscrutable. I love how absolutely extra he is? This inclination for melodrama developed over years of growing up in Faerie: Why just walk into a room when you can materialize out of a chaos of ravens? Why simply refuse to learn to read when you can create your own writing system, one that more easily aligns to your own way of thinking?  Why take your vengeance for your parents deaths out on the one guy who did it, when you can conquer half an island? The man has two modes: “Cool Arrogance” and “Sinking Coastal Yorkshire Villages Into The Sea” and I kinda love it? (though, just to make things clear, I don’t actually approve of the drowning of Coastal Yorkshire Villages, no matter what allies they’ve made in their quest not to pay their taxes. In case it needs to be said)
Most of all, I love how incredibly human The Raven King can be as well. There’s compassion – offhanded, a second thought, of course, yet still there–  in the way he heals Childermass before he vanishes again. There’s humor in his parting words to Childermass, “You are wrong, he is not dead” – a dry, ironical sort of understatement, that the man can’t even hear, you can nearly picture the smirk curling at his lips as he says it! And there’s care in all that he does. He set in motion a plan three centuries in the making, manipulating who knows how many events, all for the sake of England, for his Kingdom, to bring magic back. John Uskglass is a teacher, he gave magic to England and it spread through his own students. John Uskglass is an explorer, building the King’s roads and traveling to countless realms in search of more Knowledge, more Magic.  Yes, of course all of these traits are twisted and filtered through a more Fairy lens, why wouldn’t they be? He was raised by these beings! He’s not fully human – but he’s not entirely Fae either. He’s this strange mixture of both that neither can really understand. It’s isolating, it’s lonely, and it’s fascinating. I just…love the Raven King when he’s shown as a person?
And I just…love how he’s presented in the book? We don’t see him until that scene at the end, but by that point in the book, you’ve heard so many legends and stories and Historical anecdotes about him that you just…feel his presence over the whole story? By that point, you know about his conquest of Northern England, and of his youthful Arrogance, refusing even to learn how to read, because what could he possibly gain from doing so? You’ve heard about how he gradually became less arrogant, less like a Fairy and More like a Man after ruling his Kingdom for so long and how he did eventually learn to read – how he decided that engaging with the thoughts of others was worthwhile after all! You hear about his Strange Fae nature in the Raven King Ballad, how he’ll spirit away unsuspecting people to his realm in Fairy. You’ve read about his cruelty: the incident with Henry Barbatus, the Yorkshire Village he sank into the sea. You’ve heard rumor of his multiple returns to England: Riding off of a Fairy Road and blessing the family of the Farmer at the end of it who gave him food and a horse; Guiding back home the daughter of a Newcastle Glovemaker who had wandered her way into Faerie; As an omen of ill fortune for a group of shipwrecked basque sailors. You even know the names of those close to him: Thomas of Dundale, William of Lanchester, Catherine of Winchester.
But in the end, how much do you really know at all? Do you know if any of these tales are true? If they are then they only open more questions. What are the other sides of these tales? Who were those others with the King when he departed from the Fairy Road, the one who vanished along with it with the morning mist, who the Raven King so blithly told the Farmer not to worry about? How did the Glovemaker’s daughter find her way inside the Raven King’s house? Did she just stumble upon it or did he bring her there? And why?
It’s fantastic.  You get all of these glimpses of the character, and you can’t help but build an image from them in your mind. But it’s never a complete image.  Never full, you can never really understand the Raven King any more than any of the characters in the book can.
(So um yeah…apparently I have *alot* of feelings about the Raven King. xD) 
All the people I ship romantically with this character
 Alright so my main ship for this guy is actually John Uskglass/England, take that in whichever way your imagination is inclined, because yes I probably mean it that way. Honestly, when you see how Happy all of Nature is when it thinks Stephen is the Raven King and that John Uskglass is returned? It’s just really cute?! How can you not?!
On a more Human level, as I’ve said before, I do actually picture John Uskglass as being pansexual, and as per his fairy upbringing, rather more casual about his sexual relationships. That said….I actually have very few ships…with like…named characters, for Uskers? Maybe it’s because I do see his affairs as so casual most of the time, or maybe it’s just because he’s so isolated a character. I dunno. Black Joan is the one character  that’s a definate yes. If she’s anything like her son, she’d be shrewd and cynical and the sort of person who can hold her own against the Raven King. I have to admit I definitely love that sort of fairy-tale like trope of this Great and Powerful King, and this relatively ordinary thief falling for one another as well. So yeah, definately here for Black Joan/John Uskglass. Otherwise? Hrmm… I need more Raven King Ships. Any one got any suggestions?
I will say that when John does fall in love, he falls hard. He doesn’t like it. It’s such a soft, vulnerable feeling, and placing your heart into someone else’s hands, to be broken at any moment? It’s foolish, so far as he’s concerned. He is a King in Faerie, after all, he cannot afford to be vulnerable. So he tries to deny any feelings he may develop for a person, even to himself. If you do get him to the point of  admitting it though, I will say he can be absolutely doting. 
My non-romantic OTP for this character
Okay, so I’ve talked about this before, but I do headcanon Thomas of Dundale and John Uskglass as having grown up in the brugh together, pretty much. Thomas –like the naturally born extrovert that he is ;) –  kind of attached himself to John and over the years became something like an older brother to him? I can’t help but picture him as being very protective of the young Raven King, and, having been taken at an age where he could remember things, where he had developed a more human sense of right and wrong, Thomas helped provide something of a balancing point against the Fairies as John was growing up. Thomas encouraged those more human aspects of John’s character, and he was there to talk to about these aspects of himself, these more human instincts, that John might not have understood so well growing up surrounded by Fairies – empathy, compassion, caring. And that bridge that Thomas provided was so important later in John’s life, after he returned to England. It wasn’t merely language that Thomas was translating, but culture, an entire way of thinking that John didn’t fully understand yet. I mean?! Their relationship is just so important to me and how can I not love them?!
And yet, on the other hand…There’s also William of Lanchester? I mean, he’s specifically marked out as The Raven King’s Favorite and Most Trusted servant, and I can’t help but picture this guy as the most Eternally Tired man in all of Northern England. xD  William is the sensible,trustworthy, reliable one and that’s such a beautiful contrast to John Uskglass? Part of me loves the idea that a big part of why John trusts William so much is because William will say ‘No’ to him. He won’t flatter or stay quiet if he feels he needs to speak against John (see: Henry Barbatus). Does that mean John will always listen? That he’ll always appreciate William’s input? No, of course not (also see: Henry Barbatus) But he will get the truth, and that is important too.
And again, on the third hand, I really do love the whole relationship between Catherine of Winchester and John Uskglass as well. I love the idea of the Raven King as a teacher, and Catherine herself is just really awesome? And the idea of even John Uskglass being impressed at her dedication to magic, of how much he finds himself valuing her as a pupil, and growing to care about her over the coarse of their relationship, just…as a person? I feel like John Uskglass does most easily connect to other people through magic and through teaching, and I like to think that Catherine was one of his favorites…
Ughh. I can’t choose. Let’s go with all four of them hanging out in 13th century Newcastle. Yes? Yes. Good! 8D 
My unpopular opinion about this character
I’m not sure. I don’t…think I have any unpopular opinions? What are the popular ones? Are we all in agreement that the Raven King is a Melodramatic Goth Nerd and That is Why We Love him?
One thing I wish would happen / had happened with this character in canon.
I want just…more in general? I mean, like more, like a whole series of historical novels focusing on the intrigues and plots surrounding the Raven King’s court. I want to see him interacting with all of these historical personages, reacting to like historical events happening, how magic and his presence changes that past? It would be *amazing* and I want it so badly!
…so  I’m prolly gonna have to write it myself xD
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come-on-shitty-boys · 4 years
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Thank you so much for writing such a detailed answer about NLMG🥰 I also really enjoyed the discussions about the novel, trying to understand things like why they never left the school etc. After reading reviews and ishiguro's statements, we came to the conclusion that he wanted to show a phenomenon (a part of human nature), which often happened in history, where people were forced to live in bad systems and just kept living in it. Also if you want to talk about HP, do it. I would love to know☺️
No, nonnie 🤧 thank you for asking! I LOVE talking books and I haven't really been able to since covid kicked me of my college campus.
But, yes! That was the same kind of conclusion we reached in my class! This refusal to leave because you don't know if leaving will put you in a better situation. There's this sense of fear that surrounds the uncertainty of what's outside the life you've been forced to live!
Continued under cut, because this gets L O N G
When nonnie reads the tags so you get to ramble some more 🥺💕
So, here's some things that you may have never known about Harry Potter and how J.K. Rowling showed that she was G A R B A G E even before letting the world know she was a terf :D! Watch me get attacked by the Potterheads oml
First things first, I'm mainly going to focus on some of the over-arching themes, because that's what we covered in class, but there's still plenty to talk about.
Let's start with the Durselys. Now, if you've only seen the movie, this fact gets lost, but in the novel, they are depicted as having blonde hair and blue eyes. Now, this may not seem like much of anything, but there's a really cool parallel between Harry Potter and Charlotte Bronte's Jane Eyre (another very thought provoking novel). Specifically in their openings. The Durselys are pretty much copy and pasted from the Bronte's Reed family. I'm talking looks and personalities. They're violent and always picking on little Jane (small, frail, dark hair, green eyes. Familiar description, yeah?) I'm like 62% sure that Jane gets called dirty because of her looks and how she doesn't fit the Aryan ideals (please note: when I say Aryan I mean the ideals that have come to be associated with Hitler's "master race" rather than the true background of the word). Hmmm it's almost like Harry also doesn't fit in because of something similar. Harry has Lily's eyes and his father's hair, a direct link to his magic background. Bold of you to assume that he didn't stick out like a sore thumb in the Dursley family just because. No. It's so we could have a PHYSICAL difference as to why Harry is looked down upon.
The Smelting stick :) oh you mean something that I did extensive research on? It's a symbol for Dudley's power in the house :) the historical connotations behind walking sticks shows us that they were more widely carried by those who were in high power and authority (think about how royalty wield scepters). As time progressed, they also were made into weapons, some even being equipped to conceal daggers and pistols. Now, Dudley's stick may not have been doubling as a knife, but we can ALL tell that Dudley is the real ruler of the house, even before getting his stick (possible penis imagery which adds another level of masculinity into the conversation. I promise if you ever study lit in an upper level course, everything is a penis). But by giving him the Smelting stick, Rowling is really just giving you affirmation that Dudley is the head of the household as he B E A T S Harry with it. (The same idea of stick = power can be seen with the Malfoy men. Lucius carries a walking stick which is then given to Draco my BABY in half blood prince because HE'S calling the shots, so to speak. Also are going to ignore that a 16 year old CHILD started a W A R? like come on. That's fucked up. I can and will write an essay on why Draco deserves way more sympathy than what he gets and I'm not just saying this because I love him. But back on topic)
Harry living under the stairs? That is literally showing how he is beneath everyone in the Dursley home and how they walk all over him. There's not much else to explore there ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The Goblins at Gringots oho ho 👀 this one left me shook when I found out. They're supposed to be Jewish people. It plays very heavily into the anti-Semitic view that Jews are stingy and greedy. Also?? They work underground?? Which uhhh doesn't sit right with me now that I know what I do, but maybe I'm reading too much into things.
We all know the House Elves are literally S L A V E S employed by everyone's favorite school nonetheless 👀 but here's what really drives me bonkers about that. Rowling insists that they LIKE it. Dobby is the only one who gets out of the system and the others are essentially like "bitch why the FUCK do you wanna be free." But isn't it nice to get a little insight on what she thinks of slavery smh 😔 didn't Kanye say the same thing? About slavery being a choice or that they liked it or something?? Or am I just tripping?
N E WAY. Here's one of my favorite parts. DIALECT. I don't remember if this gets mentioned in the books, but I know it's in the films. So, if we put Ron, Draco, and my queen McGonagall all up next to each other and have them say the same thing, what the difference? Their dialect. They accent they have is directly linked to their social class. Ron has more of a cockney accent, which is used by working-class Londoners. It's essentially the Southern accent of Americans, so it's typically associated with being dumb, so it kinda fits that not only is Ron Weasley poor, he's also not the brightest. Say it with me friends. Classist. Draco has a posh accent, so he's rich and super smart but also kind of a brat, especially early in the series ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ McGonagall is Scottish. That accent is very desirable because it EXUDES class. So, it seems to make sense that one if the older, wiser characters gets to be Scottish.
I wish I could go on and on, but I don't remember everything we talked about?? There was a lot of stuff JUST on Hogwarts itself and the British private school system and the classism you can find rooted there, but I don't really remember it all?? There's things about the roots of last names, specifically Potter vs Malfoy and the whole Anglo-Saxon vs Anglo-Norman roots of their names and how it translates to class and their beliefs. I could go on for YEARS about why I can't stand Albus Dumbledore but this post is already massive 😩 so I really shouldn't.
Nonnie, thank you for letting me ramble on about all of this. I've missed talking about books. It's honestly something that I will always enjoy :') my brain just thrives off of underlying meanings 🤧
Tagging @nekxrizawa because sis wanted to get in on this discussion.
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eleonorebirk · 5 years
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Marvel Bingo 2019: Historical AU
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Charles resisted the urge to bounce in place, his eagerness increasing the closer the carriage got to their destination. Soon they would finally arrive in Toledo. It was a long way from his home in England and required quite some time spend travelling, sometimes in appalling conditions, but he still had not hesitated for even a second when the bishop had offered to send him, a laybrother, to Toledo to work on translating works into Latin and English. It was not completely unexpected, of course. He had learned the Catalan dialect in the hope that he might get to talk to some of the scholars from Toledo one day, perhaps even visit. Toledo was famous for their translations of all kind of works. He had not mentioned it back home but to him, the translations of works on science, both older ones from scholars of Greek Antiquity and newer ones from the Arabs, were of far more interest to him than some of the works from the early days of the Church they were hoping for back in England. That he got to personally travel there now to work there for an indefinite time at only 30 years old was an achievement he was very happy about. 
The carriage finally came to a stop and Charles and the other travellers got off. He stopped short when he caught his first glimpse of his new home and had to be pushed forward to clear the doorway. The buildings looked so different from those in England or even those he’d seen in France on the way here. He had known of course that Toledo, like the surrounding area, had been under Muslim control not too long ago but he had not properly considered that it meant that there would be buildings still here, looking like they had been transported here from Baghdad or Cairo.
He finally shook himself out of it. There would be more than enough time to explore, he reminded himself. For now he needed to find out where he would be staying and working. Both had been arranged by his bishop but he wasn’t sure of the details.
The house where he would be staying and working was easily found. Everyone, it seemed, knew where it was and could tell him where to find his contact.
“Ah, yes, Charles, we were informed of your arrival as a new translator,” he was greeted. “I am Michael. You may leave your pack here for now. I would like to introduce you to your partner before showing you the room we have arranged for you.”
“My partner?” Charles asked.
“When translating text written in Arabic, those who do not know the language work in tandem,” Michael explained. “A Jew or a Mozarab, a Christian having adopted the Arabian way of life while they ruled here, will translate the text into Castilian and you will then transpose this into Latin. Some of us have learned Arabic ourselves by now but you, as someone unfamiliar with the language, you will be working with a partner, at least for now.”  
Charles was curious now. He had not known that. He had had the pleasure of getting his hands on some of the translations having come from Toledo, but there had been no mention of the translations having been a joined project. Then again, perhaps he should have figured it out. Where and how should those translators from all over Europe have learned enough Arabic to translate all those texts? He remembered only too well trying to explain a text he’d found interesting to a young visiting scholar from Denmark, only to run into problems when the other didn’t know the necessary words in English or Latin since he had only recently started learning both.  
Michael stopped in front of a door and pushed it open without bothering to knock. “This is Erik Lehnsherr. He will work with you.”
Another man, around his own age, was sitting at a desk in the small chamber, sheets of paper carefully arranged in front of him and illuminated by a candle. He frowned at them, probably because Michael had interrupted him during his work. Heaven knew Charles himself didn’t much like being disturbed without warning. He smiled at him and offered his hand. “Hello, I’m Charles. It’s good to meet you. I look forward to working with you.”
Erik looked briefly down at his hand, then back into his face, before turning back to his papers. “Erik.”
Charles frowned slightly and slowly lowered his hand, surprised by the frosty welcome. He shrugged internally. Perhaps he was having a bad day? They would get to know one another better as they worked together, surely.
~*~
He did get to learn some things about his partner over the next weeks. He learned that he was one of the Jews who had come to Toledo from the south of the Iberian peninsula when the Muslim rulers started persecuting his people, though his family had only moved from Magenza to the Iberian peninsula a few generations ago. He figured out that he was interested and very knowledgeable in a number of different sciences, like mathematics and but also philosophy. He had a dry sense of humour that sometimes shone through. He had no family leaving in the area, neither parents or siblings nor a wife.  
But their relationship remained distant, no matter how hard he tried. Erik, it seemed, did not want to be more than colleagues. And he would dearly like to be at least friends with him. He had never felt as alive as he did when Erik forgot himself in the face of an interesting fact or argument from the current text they were working on. Charles loved his insights and the inspiration he offered. He had enough ideas that he was considering starting an annotated version of the book by Aristotle they were working on right now. He’d tried everything, asking him along for a meal or his journeys around Toledo and the surrounding area, bringing up his own past and interests to draw him out, even outright asking him about himself. Erik refused.
Which was why he was sitting alone at dinner, pushing around the rest of his meal. Erik had rejected his invitation once again, saying that they were just working together, no more.
“Well, don’t you look glum.” Antonio – “Call me Tony” – led himself drop onto the stool across from him. They were staying in the same guest house. Tony had arrived in Toledo just a few days before Charles. He was younger than him, not even 20 yet, but a bright young man. He’d made the way here from his native Italy because his father wanted him to learn about the Toledo steel. Tony had told him very frankly that he intended to take advantage of the distance between him and his father to spend as long as he could here, learning not just about the steel but everything else that caught his fancy, regardless of how useful his father considered it.  
Charles managed a small smile. “Ah, Tony, I haven’t seen you for a few days.”
Tony cleared his throat. “I... ah... I might have been out testing some of the theories I read about.”
Charles tried to look stern but couldn’t quite stop his lips from twitching up in a smile. “Did you damage anything?”
“... Nothing that can’t be repaired,” he admitted after a moment. “But they still insisted that I now need a minder.” He pointed over his shoulder to were a dark skinned man was making his way towards him. Charles could not quite tell his age. He seemed older than Tony certainly. Perhaps close to his own age?  
“Charles, this is Rhodey. Rhodey, Charles,” Tony introduced when he had reached the table.
Charles paused, trying to place the origin of the name. It did not sound Arabic, nor like any other language he knew.
The other man rolled his eyes. “James,” he corrected patiently. “I told you, my name is James.” He smiled at Charles and shook his hand. “Nice to meet you.”
“Everyone is called James,” Tony protested, then added as an afterthought: “Or John. Or Peter. Or all three.” He shook his head, abandoning that train of thought for now. “I’m gonna keep calling you Rhodey.”
The resigned look in James’ eyes told Charles that he had already realized the futility in trying to change Tony’s mind once he’d made it up. “Do you mind if we join you?” he asked Charles, ignoring the way Tony leaned on the table as if to make clear that he had no intention of leaving.
Charles felt his spirit life somewhat by the by-play. “Not at all. Please, sit down,” he invited. “Are you from here, that you have been charged with watching over this troublemaker?”
“Not originally. Like you, I suspect, I have been sent here to study and translate for my bishop.” Seeing the question in Charles’ eyes, he explained: “I’m from Ethiopia. My king heard about the knowledge coming from here and wished to learn more. I have been living here for five years now.”
“Ah.” Charles was too embarrassed to admit that he had forgot about the Christian Kingdom of Ethiopia, that he had simply assumed from James’ appearance that he or his family must have come to Iberia from Africa with the Muslim forces.
“And now he gets to gather some practical knowledge by helping me,” Tony said. “And how have you been, Charles? You still haven’t told me what had you looking so sad.”
Charles hesitated for barely a moment. Tony already knew part of it and he needed to get it off his chest. “I’m still no closer to getting Erik to open up, to treating me like anything more than a random colleague. He keeps rejecting each and every invitation, no matter what it is.” ‘He keeps rejecting me,’ he wanted to say but couldn’t bring himself to voice it.
“Erik?” James repeated.
“His partner for translating books from Arabic into Latin,” Tony explained.  
“Your partner is Erik Lehnsherr?” James asked.
“Yes. Do you know him?” Charles asked, eager to learn more about Erik.
“Not well but I know of him, enough to perhaps explain why he is so distant,” James said. “You must have noticed, I’m sure, that the Jewish and Mozarabic men helping with the translations are often not respected as highly as the ones writing down the Latin translation. In fact there is often no mention or acknowledgment of their work in the books, though fortunately that’s changing slowly, partly because King Alfonso values their knowledge very highly. But Erik’s previous partner, Sebastian Shaw, was even worse than many others of the old guard. He was a monk but, frankly, I doubt he is a true believer, since he shows not a hint of the compassion our Lord has taught us. Shaw looked down on Erik, on all the Jewish people. He claimed every honour for their work for himself, even when Erik did most of it. He had him working all day and most of the night, while he was out, doing who knows what. He was even involved in a plot to get the kings of Spain and Portugal to expulse all Jews from the Peninsula.”
Charles straightened up. “What? How?”
“When the crown prince of Portugal fell ill and the royal physicians couldn’t cure him, the more radical members of the clergy tried to convince the kings that it was a punishment from God for their friendship with their Jewish subjects. They planned an alliance through wedding between the ill crown prince and a Spanish princess, an alliance that would include the expulsion of all Jews who would not convert. Fortunately their plan was discovered and Rabbi Yehuda haKohen, the personal physician of King Alfonso of Castile, travelled to Portugal where he managed to save the crown prince’s life.” James paused to drink a few sips of the wine Tony had ordered for them. “So the plan of those clergymen had failed, thank God, but not all involved could be identified. Shaw very likely was but there was no proof and by the time the attempt became known, he had fled.”
Charles wanted to rail against the injustice, of what Erik had gone through, of Shaw taking advantage of his position to the point that Erik had a hard time trusting people. “What can I do?”
James shrugged. “You will have to be patient. Erik can come to see that you are not like him but it will take time.”
“I can be patient,” Charles declared. For Erik, he would be.
“I might have an idea,” Tony said.
~*~
Charles was thankful for their help and confidence. They had given him hope for his relationship with Erik. Having a plan also helped. Though spending time with them was also bittersweet. Seeing Tony and James grow ever closer, their mutual affection deepening, was touching but it also left him craving Erik’s presence in his life more and more.
He was relieved that Tony’s idea was coming along very well, even if it meant that he did not get as much sleep as he would have liked. But this was his chance to prove to Erik that he was not like Shaw, that he cared for him as a person, as his equal, not a resource to be used and then discarded.  
He just hoped it worked.
~*~
Erik was not surprised to find a parcel on his desk in their workroom when he arrived in the morning. It wasn’t the first time Charles had left him little gifts, small trinkets, a basket of fruits. When he’d asked him about it, he’d simply reply “I thought you might like it.” or “It reminded me of you.” He didn’t know what to think about it but he had to admit, he was coming to look forward for them and to the time he spend with Charles. He was coming to believe that he really wasn’t like Shaw.
When Erik pulled away the cloth covering his latest gift, he was a bit surprised to see a book. Leafing through it briefly, he recognized it to be an annotated translation of Aristoteles’ manuscript they had been working on before they started their current project. He frowned when he recognized the writing as Charles’. What was the meaning of this?
He opened the book at the beginning, needing to see the first page.  
He carefully ran his finger over the subtitle, afraid that it would vanish like a dream. ‘Translation and annotation by Erik Lehnsherr and Charles Xavier.’  
It was in both their names. His name was places not as an assistant but as co-author.  
Hands shaking more than he’d like to admit, he carefully turned the page. His breath caught. There, also in Charles’ writing, was a dedication in Hebrew. The letters were a bit shaky, not as smooth as Charles’ usual writing and obviously written by someone with little practice in the script but it was the content that meant the most to him.
‘To my partner, Erik Lehnsherr, who pushes and inspires me every day to be a better person, whose knowledge, insights and ideas have only made this book possible.’
“Do you… do you like it?”
Erik turned around, surprised to see that Charles had arrived without him noticing. He stood stiffly right at the door, looking like he was ready to bold at a wrong word.  
Not that Erik could blame him, considering the way he had put himself out there even with how hard he had tried to push Charles away. He tried for a reassuring smile and held out a hand to Charles. “I do, very much.” The slowly growing smile on Charles’ face as he accepted his hand took his breath away.
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bbclesmis · 5 years
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Can the BBC’s Les Misérables do justice to Victor Hugo’s epic novel?
Few who love Les Mis the musical have read its source: a 1,500-page Victor Hugo novel. As the BBC tackles the book, David Bellos explains why it’s such a popular text to adapt.
The Sunday Times, December 16 2018, 12:01am
At dawn on June 19, 1815, in a muddy Belgian field where Napoleon has just lost his last battle, a scavenger filches the watch and purse of a dying soldier; a few weeks later, a long-term inmate of Toulon jail is released with a yellow passport and 109 francs. That’s where interlocking stories of Les Misérables begin, with Thénardier robbing the father of Marius, and Valjean setting off towards Digne.
If you think the magic of Les Mis comes mainly from the operatic version by Boublil and Schönberg, wait until you see the new adaptation by Andrew Davies, drawn from the book and not, like Tom Hooper’s 2012 film, from the musical, which leaves out most of Hugo’s novel’s story and doesn’t even mention the Battle of Waterloo. Davies’s script begins at the beginning, and the director, Tom Shankland, makes a truly memorable opener out of it.
Any adaptation of Les Misérables stands in a global tradition of spin-offs in every medium. In the cinema alone, there are about 70 full-length Misérables, in languages as varied as Russian, Farsi and Arabic. In Japan, there has been an independent strain of Mis-mania, expressed in manga and animé, for 100 years.
It’s not hard to see why Les Misérables is so much more attractive to dramatists than any other novel of the 19th century. Despite long passages of historical and philosophical discussion, Hugo’s saga of the poor has a simple narrative arc. It tells the redemptive life story of the former convict Valjean, from his release at Toulon to his death in Paris 20 years later. And, despite the sufferings that fill its pages, it is an optimistic story of how a man from the bottom of the pile may aspire to goodness and achieve it through persistence and sacrifice (plus the kind of luck that novels can invent). That’s dramatic enough.
Hugo was also a dramatist of genius. He created grand scenes ready for staging. The candlestick episode at Digne; the courtroom in Arras, where Valjean gives himself up to save an innocent man; the hold-up in Boulevard de l’Hôpital and Valjean’s escape from it; and the opening vision of a vulture-like thief robbing a dead man the morning after the greatest battle ever fought. Nearly all these great scenes feature a hero, part Hercules, part Christ, who defines himself through actions, not through thoughts and words. In fact, Valjean hardly says a word to himself, and not many to other people, either.
This leaves adapters and directors free to create their own image of this mythical figure. We’ve had a Valjean who looks like a tramp (the rough-hewn Harry Baur in Raymond Bernard’s 1934 film) and one who looks like a banker (in the Japanese TV serial), alongside handsome young men (Fredric March, Liam Neeson) and an action-movie star (Jean-Paul Belmondo) who had trouble pretending to be the right age. What we’ve not had is a Valjean who looks like Hugo: a short, broad-shouldered man in late middle age, in remarkably good physical shape. Despite being too tall, Dominic West, in this new TV version, comes closer than most. Les Misérables is not autobiographical (Hugo never went to prison, got buried alive or went down the sewers), but the writer’s moral self-identification with the suffering hero is one of the fundamental strengths of his book.
It was destined for the stage from the start. Even before the last volumes went on sale in July 1862, Charles Hugo, the writer’s son, began drafting a stage spectacular. A script doctor was hired to get it into shape for its premiere in Brussels in January 1863. It still flopped. But, published as a book, it influenced adaptations as to what to cut and keep.
The addition of music also has roots older than the West End musical version. Almost as soon as the first American translation of the novel appeared, a dramatist called Albert Cassedy dashed off Fantine, or The Fate of a Grisette, a popular opera with a score by Charles Koppitz. Music also plays an overlooked role in the novel: the tune Cosette practises on her piano- organ and the songs sung by schoolgirls in the Champs-Elysées, by convicts on tumbrils, by students in restaurants, hummed by a hunter in the woods and shouted out by an urchin on his way to the barricade, make up a concert programme of popular music in 19th-century France. It’s time to dust these off and perform them as the music Hugo had in his head.
Britain has had an unhappy relationship with Hugo’s epic tale because its authorised translation, by a retired military gentleman with his own views about what happened at Waterloo, was a complete disaster. For legal reasons, no new version could be brought out for decades thereafter. It didn’t help that the translation was available only in a costly hardback format.
Les Misérables reached its real audience in Britain through stage plays, and it’s amazing to see just how many there were: Charity, by CH Hazlewood, “founded on Victor Hugo’s story of Les Misérables”, was performed in London in November 1862; then came Jean Valjean, by Harry Seymour, Clarance Holt’s Out of Evil Cometh Good, in 1867, and many more. They concentrated heavily on Part I of Hugo’s five-part novel. The battle scene at Waterloo in Part II and the “revolutionary” stories of Parts IV and V seem to have been ignored most of the time.
In Russia, too, Tolstoy’s retelling of Les Misérables in simple language focused on Bishop Myriel’s charitable gift of silver to a rough customer. It was this fable-like episode, transposed into English by Norman McKinnel as The Bishop’s Candlesticks in 1908, that was turned into a silent short film by Herbert Brenon in 1913, which was then remade with a soundtrack in 1929. It never stopped, leaving Andrew Davies with a rich inheritance to renew — and to overturn. But he keeps one of the glitches that early translators made and that all Hollywood movie versions retain: he has Valjean steal the bishop’s silver cutlery, whereas in the novel he steals his silver plates (the French word “couvert” having changed its meaning).
One reason why Les Misérables has been remade in so many languages and periods is sex, or, more precisely, its total absence. It wasn’t prudery that kept Hugo off the topic. (He had plenty of experience, to put it politely.) But Les Misérables is about justice, social morality, crime, punishment, the meaning of history and the full potential of human life.
It’s true that old Gillenormand boasts of his past as a rake, but at 90 years of age, he’s long past acting out. It’s also true that Fantine becomes a prostitute — but Hugo deals with the episode in just seven words. Adaptations that put sex into the story express not what Hugo wrote about, but what some audiences are expected to find alluring.
On the other hand, a belief in the existence of a god is integral to the book’s meaning. Deeply sceptical of the Catholic church, Hugo omits Christian artefacts and rituals (including midnight Mass at Montfermeil and the church wedding of Cosette and Marius) to a degree that is almost comical in a panorama of 19th-century life, but he insisted that Les Misérables was a religious work. The prismatic glint of sunlight through foliage that Shankland deploys in the new BBC version, to show the start of Valjean’s conversion after robbing Petit-Gervais, seems to me an intelligent and respectful way of hinting at what Hugo meant.
One of the more puzzling aspects of Les Misérables and its flourishing international afterlife is its exclusive focus on France. There’s not a single foreigner among the 120 named characters in the novel; barring occasional remarks about London, Poland and the United States, Les Misérables talks exclusively about the history, politics, social structure and social ills of the country that Hugo considered to be top nation for all time, namely his own.
Though largely written in Guernsey and initially published in Belgium, the book was written for the French by a man whose long exile had no foreseeable end. Its first translator into Italian requested permission to cut historical passages because “there are some Italians, rather a lot in fact, who say: ‘This book, Les Misérables, is a French book. It is not about us. Let the French read it as history, let us read it as a novel.’”
Permission was refused. The intensity and completeness of this exposition of the social ills in 19th-century France effectively turned that now mythical place into a stand-in for the whole world. You can’t blame Hugo for not being in tune with 21st-century ideas of the politically correct, but you have to admire him for standing outside the conventions of his day.
His response to the translator has a prophetic sense, and answers in advance the question of why his French-focused masterpiece continues to attract readers, fans and adapters all over the world: “I do not know whether [my book] will be read by all, but I wrote it for everyone... Social problems go beyond borders. The sores of the human race, these running sores that cover the globe, don’t stop at red or blue lines drawn on the map. Wherever men are ignorant and desperate, wherever women sell themselves for bread, wherever children suffer for want of instruction or a warm hearth, Les Misérables knocks on the door and says, ‘Open up, I have come for you.’”
David Bellos is the author of The Novel of the Century: The Extraordinary Adventure of Les Misérables (Penguin £10.99). Les Misérables starts on BBC1 on Dec 30 at 9pm; Dominic West is interviewed in the Magazine next Sunday
‘The Glums’: a potted history
● The full text of Les Misérables in the right order of reading was not available to British readers until 2008, in a version by the Australian writer Julie Rose.
● In 1897, the Lumière brothers shot a one-minute reel of a quick-change artist masquerading as Hugo, Valjean, Thénardier, Marius and Javert. This was the first time fiction had ever appeared on celluloid film.
● Victor Hugo’s wife, Adèle, operated as publicity manager for the novel’s launch. She created a poster campaign featuring illustrations of the main characters, making the novel’s imminent appearance known long before its publication. Nothing like that had been done before. She also had announcements prepared for newspapers and requested that they were held back from publication until she gave the signal, making Les Misérables probably the first work launched under embargo.
● When Hugo was ready to publish Les Misérables in 1862, he secured the publishing deal of all time: in today’s terms, he was paid about £3m as an advance on a contract allowing the publisher Albert Lacroix to print the book for just eight years. Lacroix had to get a huge bank loan to finance the book.
● Charles Dickens met Hugo in Paris in 1847, visiting his splendid apartment on Place Royale. There is not a trace of the event in Hugo’s records, which suggests the British author didn’t make a strong impression on the literary star of his day. In Dickens’s eyes, though, Hugo looked “like the Genius he was”.
● Hugo’s contemporaries weren’t all taken with his novel: “This book is written for catholico-socialist shitheads and for the philosophico-evangelical ratpack,” Gustave Flaubert wrote to a friend.
● When Hugo fled France in 1851, both his sons were in prison and Louis-Napoléon — Napoléon III — was his sworn enemy. “Because we had Napoléon le Grand, do we have to have Napoléon le Petit?” he quipped.
● Les Misérables has been adapted for radio and cinema more times than any other novel.
● Classical literary French had a restricted vocabulary. Racine got by with about 2,000 words. Hugo uses about 20,000 different words in the 630,000 words of the text of Les Misérables — maybe as many as in all of Shakespeare working in English, which has a much larger vocabulary in the first place.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/magazine/culture/can-the-bbcs-les-miserables-do-justice-to-victor-hugos-epic-novel-50wtqgvdj?t=ie
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perfectirishgifts · 3 years
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Disney’s Master Class: How To Get Everyone To Wear A Face Mask
New Post has been published on https://perfectirishgifts.com/disneys-master-class-how-to-get-everyone-to-wear-a-face-mask/
Disney’s Master Class: How To Get Everyone To Wear A Face Mask
Since reopening this summer, Disney World has required face masks inside its theme parks.
Since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, surveys have consistently shown that the majority of Americans support mandates for wearing face masks in public.
What’s perhaps even more important is that travelers have demonstrated a clear desire to see those mandates enforced. Think back to May, when major U.S. airlines were rolling out new face mask requirements while at the same time telling flight crews not to ruffle the feathers of non-compliers, as reported by Reuters. After the predictable backlash, the airlines were forced to get much tougher about enforcing mask usage. Nowadays, passengers who refuse to wear face coverings are often banned from flying or, at the least, escorted off flights, often to applause and jeers from fellow travelers.
While airlines eventually came around to the importance of enforcing their own policies, Walt Disney World was prepared to walk the walk from the get-go. Before the Orlando mega-resort reopened last summer, Disney understood that attracting visitors after a four-month closure during a pandemic would require going above and beyond to keep its employees and visitors safe. One of the central pillars in Disney World’s reopening plan has been its strict face mask policy.
Mask compliance at Walt Disney World is “virtually 100%,” says Len Testa, a statistician and the founder of Touring Plans, a popular app and website that uses big data and user-generated intel to help theme-park-goers slash wait times. Since the theme parks reopened, Testa’s team of on-the-ground employees has been tracking face mask compliance.
Every day, Testa’s team picks a random location at a random Disney World theme park and counts 500 people. “Of those 500 people, we determine how many were wearing their masks exactly according to Disney’s mask guidelines,” explains Testa. That means wearing a face covering that is secure and covers the nose and mouth. “And the only time that you can take it off is when you are actively eating or drinking while stationary, not while walking around or in a ride queue,” he says.
At Epcot last Wednesday, compliance was 99%, which Testa says is pretty typical. “Also, when mask compliance isn’t 100%, it’s not like somebody’s walking around all day without a mask,” he says. “It’s generally someone walking who pulls the mask down for a second, takes a sip of soda, and puts it right back on.”
Getting everyone to wear a mask in a place the size of San Francisco is all the more impressive given that Disney World is located in a state without a mask mandate. Currently, about 89% of Floridians report wearing a mask all or most of the time, according to Carnegie Mellon’s CovidCast, a project tracking real-time statistics related to the coronavirus. That puts the Sunshine State about midway between South Dakota (82%) and Vermont (97%).
Put another way, mask compliance at Disney World is as high or higher than virtually anywhere in the nation. This is achieved through a combination of clear, consistent messaging and zero-tolerance enforcement.
“There’s no way you could come and not be aware of the mask policy,” says Tom Corless, founder of the Disney fan site WDW News Today. “It is impossible that you would not encounter a sign, an audio announcement, or some disclaimer when you’re purchasing tickets or a hotel room or whatever.”
Park-goers hear frequent audio announcements and come across signs, like one near the entrance to Magic Kingdom, that do not mince words: “Guests not properly wearing an approved mask will be asked to leave.”
And Disney means it, say Testa and Corless, who have both witnessed staff members whisk non-compliers out of the parks. What’s more, they say, Disney has shown a willingness to stop a ride if staff members spot a maskless face. Without singling anyone out, they’ll make an announcement and wait for the offender to replace his or her mask before restarting the attraction.
“So someone might think, ‘No one’s watching now. I can finally take this down. I’m in a dark space,’” says Corless, noting that Disney has internal security cameras on virtually every attraction. “People think no one’s watching, but there usually is.”
Which is exactly what happened last week when Corless went to see “Impressions de France,” a short film screened at Epcot’s France pavilion. “And the film starts, and it’s dark, and I see a cast member with a little light wand, and she’s waving at somebody. Then I see that two people have taken down their masks in the theater, and I don’t know how she saw it. It’s pretty dark in there, but she spotted it. And she didn’t stop the film, but she certainly made her way through the seating to make sure these people pulled their masks back up for the rest of the film.”
MORE FROM FORBESFirst Look: Disney World’s New Star Wars Hotel Is A Space Cruiser To A Galaxy Far, Far AwayBy Suzanne Rowan Kelleher
Stories like these highlight Disney’s proactive approach to enforcement. The company anticipates where people might be most likely to remove their masks and positions watchdogs accordingly. For instance, staff members are strategically placed near the most iconic holiday decorations, like the big Christmas trees in the Magic Kingdom, and they keep their eyes peeled for anyone who might try and drop their mask down to take a photo.
“And as soon as that happens, I’m not going to say they’re shouting, but there’s very loud insistence to say, ‘Please put your mask on,’” says Testa. “And it’s not just one person. It’s multiple people from different angles all coming over and saying it at the same time. They are very serious. They know the places where it’s going to happen, and they’re doing exactly what they need to do.”
Disney’s face mask policy is just one in a slew of rigorous Covid-19 protocols that also include enhanced sanitation, temperature checks, and modifications to many attractions and character interactions.
Of course, there are distancing markers on every attraction that denote how far apart you’re supposed to stand. “The lines look really, really long because everyone is six feet apart. But if you look at the actual time that you’re spending in line, we’re still seeing historically low wait times for most rides,” says Testa. “In past Thanksgivings, the wait times would have been two or three times higher than they were this year easily, if not more.”
Another key change is the temporary ban on walk-up tickets. Guests must use the online Disney Park Pass reservations system to buy tickets in advance and make reservations at one of the four main theme parks per day. This allows Disney to limit daily attendance in each park to 35% capacity — up from 25% in the summer. While this reservation system will be kept in place at least into 2022, modified Park Hopper ticket options, which will allow guests to visit more than one park in a day, are returning next month.
On the whole, say Testa and Corless, Disney park-goers seem happy to adhere to these rules in exchange for being able to enjoy themselves. There have been days when all four parks reached that 35% capacity maximum, says Testa. For the Magic Kingdom, roughly one third capacity translates to 31,500 people.
“That’s barely half of what an average day was right before the pandemic,” says Testa. “Some people may say, ‘Well, 31,000 people is way too many for the Magic Kingdom.’ But historically it’s not. And Disney’s doing a really good job of spacing people out.”
Corless, who has visited Disney World nearly every day since the resort reopened over the summer, says he’s proof that Disney is getting it right. “I’ve been tested several times. I don’t have antibodies. I’ve never tested positive for coronavirus,” he says. “It proves that masks, and compliance, and other rules, and enforcement absolutely can work. It’s beautiful.”
Disney did not respond to Forbes’ request for an interview.
READ MORE
First Look: Disney World’s New Star Wars Hotel Is A Space Cruiser To A Galaxy Far, Far Away
Covid-19 Alert: The 10 Riskiest States To Visit A Week After Thanksgiving, Ranked
More from Travel in Perfectirishgifts
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paulbenedictblog · 4 years
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%news%
New Post has been published on %http://paulbenedictsgeneralstore.com%
Cnn news Buffalo Bishop resigns following Vatican review of his diocese
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Cnn news
Bishop Richard Malone, the scandal-plagued non secular leader of the Diocese of Buffalo, has resigned in the wake of frequent criticism of his handling of allegations of sexual abuse and misconduct by native clergy members.
His departure, equipped by strategy of press unencumber by the Vatican on Wednesday morning, follows a checklist on the anxious diocese licensed by the Holy Gaze and submitted to the Vatican’s Congregation for Bishops in November.
"The Holy Father well-liked the renunciation of the pastoral government of the diocese of Buffalo (U.S.A.), equipped by S.E. Mons. Richard J. Malone,” reads the announcement when translated from from Italian, “and appointed Apostolic Administrator vacant seat of the the same diocese S.E. Mons. Edward B. Scharfenberger, Bishop of Albany.”
Malone is the first bishop in the 172-year historical past of the Catholic Diocese of Buffalo to resign from office. In an announcement released after the Vatican’s announcement, Malone acknowledged that his contrivance had became untenable nonetheless continued to protect his legacy.
“Irrespective of the measurable growth we have carried out collectively, I truly have concluded after considerable prayer and discernment that the non secular welfare of the folk of the Diocese of Buffalo will most likely be higher served by a brand current bishop who perchance is higher in a contrivance to bring about the reconciliation, therapeutic and renewal that is so wished,” Malone acknowledged in the assertion. “As such, I requested of His Holiness Pope Francis that he allow me to retire early, and he agreed to compose so. … It's my upright overview that I truly have carried out as considerable as I am in a contrivance to, and that there remain divisions and wounds that I am unable to bind and heal.”
He insisted that whereas he “became once made attentive to the frequent conclusions of the checklist” to the Vatican, “my resolution to retire early became once made freely and voluntarily.”
Scharfenberger will desire over the diocese out of the blue as a non permanent administrator whereas the Vatican searches for a permanent replace.
The Diocese of Buffalo has been in a articulate of disaster since closing year, when Siobhan O'Connor, Malone's historical deepest secretary, leaked internal church paperwork to investigative reporter Charlie Specht from ABC's native region WKBW, sparking months of reporting about whether or not there had been efforts to veil the extent of the converse from the general public.
In an interview with ABC Files that aired as a rather a lot of edition of Nightline in July, Malone defended his management, along with his resolution to enable Fr. Dennis Riter, a local pastor who has confronted a pair of allegations of sexual abuse of formative years, to return to ministry after a attorney employed by the church to analyze the subject concluded the allegations had “no advantage.” Riter has denied the accusations and continues to attend as pastor of St. Elizabeth Ann Seton Church in the Buffalo suburb of Dunkirk.
“I beget that in the practically 20 years I truly were a bishop, I’ve tried onerous to be a first charge shepherd,” Malone suggested ABC Files, arguing that he had “inherited a a long time historical horrific converse of abuse.”
Nevertheless the disaster only deepened in September with the emergence of secret audio recordings, made by Malone’s then-secretary and diocesan vice chancellor Fr. Ryszard Biernat and got by each and every WKBW and ABC Files.
The recordings counsel Malone sought to veil allegations that an active priest had sexually pressured a then-seminarian, even supposing Malone will also be heard on the tapes describing the accused priest as "a in uncomfortable health puppy" and calling his alleged penchant for manipulation and retaliation "risky."
Irrespective of the ensuing public outrage and rising calls for his ouster from each and every non secular and civic leaders, Malone in the foundation looked steadfast in his refusal to resign, suggesting the absence of budge from the Vatican constituted an implicit endorsement of his management.
“They are saying the pope continually picks up the phone and calls folk around the field, nonetheless I truly have not been the recipient of surely one of these calls,” Malone acknowledged all thru an emergency briefing with a hand-picked community of reporters following the e-newsletter of the recordings. “I’ve had no communications from the pope at all.”
“I do know for certain they're not ignorant of the total files round here,” he continued. “Nevertheless thus a long way apparently I wish to judge they are trusting in my goodwill and my contrivance and my capability working with rather a lot of folk to lead us extra.”
That changed in October, when the Apostolic Nunciature in Washington, D.C., the Vatican's U.S. consultant, equipped that its office had licensed Bishop Nicholas DiMarzio of the Diocese of Brooklyn to habits an "Apostolic Visitation," described as "a truth-finding mission which experiences in the present day to the Holy Gaze … to reflect eventualities in dioceses.”
Following the announcement of Malone’s resignation on Wednesday, DiMarzio released an announcement on his review, saying that his team spoke with “bigger than 80 folk over a period of several weeks” nonetheless giving no indication of whether or not or when its conclusions will most certainly be made public.
“What I stumbled on are many deeply devoted Catholics who admire their Church,” DiMarzio acknowledged in an announcement. “I pray this moment of struggling and wretchedness will lead to a birth of current faith. With the appointment of the Most Reverend Edward Scharfenberger, Bishop of Albany, to oversee the Buffalo Diocese, I am confident that Buffalo Catholics are in ultimate arms. I am hoping that now Catholics in Buffalo can commence up the strategy of appealing forward, therapeutic, and helping the diocese in all of its ministries.”
Malone’s critics largely considered the knowledge as a step in the gorgeous direction.
Matthew Golden, who has accused Malone of allowing Fr. Riter, his alleged abuser, to dash penalties, hailed the announcement as a “sizable victory” for survivors of clergy abuse and their advocates.
“With the persistence and spine of some folk,” he suggested ABC Files, “this fine day in Buffalo has sooner or later arrived. One done, Riter to budge.”
Mitchell Garabedian, the well-known Boston-basically based mostly clergy abuse attorney who represents 38 alleged victims in Buffalo, along with surely one of Fr. Riter’s rather a lot of accusers, acknowledged Malone’s resignation sends a “loud message.”
“The resignation of Bishop Malone provides hope to clergy sexual abuse victims that morality will prevail, justice will most likely be served and that their voices can and can compose definite substitute,” Garabedian acknowledged in an announcement. “The resignation sends a loud message to clergy sexual abuse victims to stand immense and be proud.”
And Siobhan O’Connor, the whistleblower who sparked the preliminary scandal, acknowledged she is relieved after what she described as a long fight for survivors and the diocese.
"For me, here is a time not for rejoicing, nonetheless for reduction,” O’Connor acknowledged, “The resignation of [Malone] is long past due.”
Nevertheless the long bustle for Buffalo’s Catholic neighborhood stays unclear. Both the FBI and the New York Criminal official Customary are for the time being investigating the diocese, and Malone’s successor would possibly perchance well additionally inherit a disaster, albeit extra of a monetary one, of his absorb.
In accordance to The Buffalo Files, the diocese became once brooding about filing for financial kill because it faces dozens of current complaints brought against the diocese following New York’s opening of a one-year window originate air the statute of boundaries for current civil litigation from alleged victims of childhood sexual abuse.
In his introductory remarks to the media on Wednesday, Bishop Scharfenberger, the non permanent administrator, pressured the need for a extra “originate and upright” methodology.
“We can’t be afraid of fact,” Scharfenberger acknowledged. “We prefer to look for at things with sober eyes and look for at the injury that became once done.”
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dansphlevels · 7 years
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part 2 please!! your writing is wonderful :)
Thank you :)
Yellow Roses Pt. 2 of 6
Read part one here or read on AO3.
Summary: Dan has a wife who just loves the flowers he keeps getting for her. Unfortunately, she doesn’t know about the attractive florist who sends hidden messages with each bouquet that her husband might just be falling for.
Length: 2.7k words
Themes: historical, flower shop au, forbidden love, language of flowers, 
The response to Dan’s message requesting mixed roses took over a week to come. It was so long, in fact, that Dan considered marching down to the flower shop himself and demanding to know why he was being ignored. But he was too busy handling the legal affairs around his home to leave for an afternoon to chew out a certain florist, so he had to wait.
He didn’t want to fire the two workers, the estate and stable boys who were caught kissing by Rose. But it was against the law, and such immoral acts were punishable by prison, at the very least. Rose continued to insist they go to the authorities, and though he didn’t like it, Daniel put his foot down as the head of the house and demanded she leave him to decide it on his own. She stormed away, and Dan hoped the new bouquet of flowers came in soon. He would have to apologize.
But then Dan was left to decide, on his own. Rose’s teatime friends had found out, and now everyone had heard the gossip. People knew what was going on, and Dan couldn’t just let the boys off with a free pass.
But word got around fast, and before too long Dan was notified the Police were at his door. “I assume this is about the two boys?”
“Yes, may we come in?”
“Certainly.” Dan looked around, and pointed to the first staff person he saw. “You. Bring out some tea to the parlor.”
In the parlor- tea in hand- Dan explained how he found out, and how the boys were still working until further notice. “Amazing,” one of the men grumbled, his chubby fingers gripping the tea cup clumsily, “you aren’t completely disgusted by their presence.”
Alarm bells went off in Dan’s mind, but he forced himself to retain his composure. “Yes, well, they do good work. I don’t want to let them go, good help is so hard to come by these days.”
The officers nodded absently. “Well, you’ll have to. It’d be a long sentence too, a few years at best.”
“Yes, of course,” the other officer, the one with the clumsy grip on his tea agreed groggily. “Though, it is under our jurisdiction. I’m sure… well, we could be convinced to help you out.”
Their message was made perfectly clear. A bribe. “Yes, I suppose we could… come to an understanding. A reduced sentence, perhaps?”
So they talked money, for quite a while, until Dan was called back to the front door. “Good God, what is it this- oh. The flowers.” What Dan meant to say was ‘Oh good, you haven’t forgotten me,’ but he hardly could say such a thing. “The price?”
Phil told him how much these particular flowers cost- more than most of the others, not that it mattered much- and eyed Dan as he dug around, getting out the coins. “Here you are. Now if you’d excuse me, I have guests.”
“Thank you.” Phil spoke hesitantly, like he was trying to choose out his words carefully. “These ones…. will wilt quickly. I’d advise you to admire them soon.”
Translation: Dan needs to interpret the meaning behind the flowers today.
So these flowers were different.
—–
The flowers were very different indeed. The first of the bundle, with white petals that hadn’t opened yet, didn’t even have a meaning, just a name: White Morning-Glories, or rather, Moonflowers. Apparently, they only bloomed at nighttime. Along with that, the most prominent piece in the bouquet was slender green stalks with soft brown ends: cattail. Dan plucked one from the arrangement, eying it carefully. It was no flower. It looked much harsher than all of the flowers Dan had received so far, and with a start, Daniel realized that Phil must not have grown it himself. Which meant, he picked them up on his way to Dan’s home. And there was only one place that could be.
Checking his flower guide- honestly, more like a flower bible- Dan confirmed his suspicion. These plants only grew in water. Yes, Dan knew exactly where these were picked.
Flowers that only bloomed at night, and plants that only grew in a grove nearby. “I’d advise you to admire them quickly,” Phil had suggested.
He had a time and a place. Tonight. The grove, by the stream.
There was one flower left. But Dan didn’t need to look up the meaning of red roses.
—–
In the pocket of his heavy coat, Dan carried one of each of the past day’s flowers: a Moonflower, because he wanted to see it unfold under the light of the (almost) full moon, a cattail, so he could make sure he found the right patch, and a rose. Because it looked nice, and completed the trio. What? Dan didn’t need justification for everything.
He took a candle with him for some light, though the moon was so bright it was hardly needed. Daniel just hoped that he’d read the flowers right.
He found the river, and then followed it until he found a patch of cattails that looks right. Settling on the ground, Dan waited.
The night felt very quiet, and Dan might have felt lonely if it weren’t for the chirping of dozens of crickets, none of which bothered him. Though it didn’t make complete sense to him, Dan’s heart was pounding.
He waited an hour, at least. But it wasn’t painful. In fact…. in fact, Dan fell into a sort of trance, the sounds of nature surrounding him, the warm coat engulfing him.
“You came.”
And there that feeling was again, that feeling that Dan wasn’t allowed. “Yes. And so did you.”
Phil’s laughter filled the empty night, though it wasn’t too loud as to let anyone know of their whereabouts. What they were doing- whatever it was, that they were doing- had to remain a secret. “Put out that candle, will you? The whole town doesn’t need to know we’re here.”
Dan reached for the candle, then hesitated.
Phil stepped forwards, his own coat loose against his form, unlike Dan’s, which he clutched against his chest. And there was another feeling, like Dan was just realizing what he was doing and how dangerous it was. He didn’t bring a weapon. If this florist of all people wanted him dead…. well, the odds were definitely against him.
Phil noted his hesitation and chuckled. “Are you scared?”
“No.” Maybe.
“I don’t bite.”
But will you, if I ask? Dan shook the ridiculous thought out of his head, quickly putting out the candle. “I’m not scared. You tend to flowers for a living.”
Phil grinned, sitting beside him on the ground easily, admiring the stream in the moonlight. “True. I’m glad you found your way here.”
Dan could feel the flowers in his pocket, and reached in, presenting them to Phil. “It wasn’t so hard. Moonflower, cattail, and rose.”
“I think roses are my favorite,” Phil said quietly, with something that vaguely resembled vulnerability. “They… have so much meaning, behind them. And they look so natural, with every other flower. What did your Rose think of the bouquet?”
The question took Dan aback. For whatever reason, bringing up his wife didn’t seem appropriate. “She loved it. We were fighting, and I suppose the flowers made her love me again.”
“Oh?” Phil asked, his voice soft, and gentle, but held some sort of danger that Dan didn’t recognize. “Her love is bought with flowers?”
It was an insult, but Dan shrugged. The florist wasn’t wrong.
But the mentioning of his wife brought Dan back to reality. And in reality, he was sitting next to a male florist in the woods, in the dark, talking about his wife. “I don’t know what I’m doing here,” Dan admitted. “Your flowers…. they aren’t right.”
“What?” Phil asked, clearly taking a personal offense.
“No no, the flowers are beautiful,” Dan backtracked, trying to recover. “But their messages…. Phil, they aren’t very appropriate.”
Phil turned away, looking forwards at the river a little ways before them. “Because you have a wife?”
Dan groaned, digging his fingers through his hair. “Yes! No! I just- there are two boys who work for me, who were caught kissing- each other. And they’ll be going to prison! Phil, whatever it is you want…. it’s not allowed.”
It was quiet for a few long seconds, Phil not answering. Dan was trying to reject him, trying to be reasonable, but it wasn’t like he wanted to deny Phil. He had no choice!
“Why do you care what happens to them?” Phil wondered aloud. “The boys, I mean. Why do you care?”
Now that was a question Dan wasn’t allowed to answer. Not when his wife asked, not when the police asked. He couldn’t even answer when the actual boys asked him with their eyes, trying to make sense of why their employer, whom they betrayed, would ever bother trying to help them. But Dan wasn’t allowed to tell them, wasn’t allowed to answer, not to anybody in his life, his real life. But maybe, in the dead of night, hidden by the woods around them and their voices concealed by the chirping of the bugs- maybe he could tell Phil.
“They made a mistake,” Dan admitted, his mouth dry. He was becoming increasingly aware of the man next to him, their hands so close they almost touched. “And…. I don’t think they should be persecuted for it. Because if I’m being honest….” He turned towards Phil, who was already looking at him, and they were so, so close, and they’re fingers touched but Dan refused to pull away…. “If I’m being honest, I’m afraid I’m going to make a mistake too.”
He closed his eyes, trying to push everything else out but Phil from his mind. He could feel the boy’s breath on his skin. He smelt like flowers.
“Will we see each other again?” Phil whispered, eyes almost closed. “After tonight?”
Phil was looking at Dan, and Dan was looking at Phil, and they were closer than he remembered. They were closer than allowed.
“I don’t know,” Dan admitted. “I don’t know if there is something after tonight.”
“There could be,” Phil whispered, as Dan became increasingly aware of how close they were becoming. He could feel Phil’s breath on his cheek and it was so, so good and it was so, so wrong.
Dan leant in without realizing and Phil leaned in and the gap was closed, and, and, and, and they were kissing. And it was illegal.
Dan pulled away, gasping, though it had just been a quick kiss. “We can’t.”
“Why not?”
Dan stared at him in horror. “I’m married! And even if I wasn’t, you… you’re a man.”
“So?”
“So? So, I’m a man too, and that’s wrong!”
“Is it wrong because you believe it is, or because you’ve been told it is?” Phil spat, growing increasingly angry. “Because I don’t know about you Daniel, but that felt right.”
“It felt…” Dan started, quieting down, “…like something that I shouldn’t have done. Forgive me.”
“There’s nothing to forgive.”
“Yes, there is! I shouldn’t have done that!”
“There’s nothing to forgive!”
His voice was low and quiet, and almost as dangerous as his actions had been. “Forgive. Me.”
Phil turned away, refusing to let Dan see his expression. “Fine. You’re forgiven.”
“Good. I should… I should go.”
Every bone in Dan’s body told him no, told him to stay, to kiss him again. But Dan pulled himself up to his feet, picking up the unlit candle, and brushing off his coat.
“Wait,” Phil stopped him, pulling himself to his feet and reaching inside his own pocket. “I have something for you.” Whatever it was, he held it inside his pocket, eyeing Dan carefully as if judging his merits. “But first, I must know. Is this… will I see you again?”
I can’t. I won’t. My wife. It’s wrong. “Yes.”
“And… and can I kiss you again?”
No. I can’t I won’t my wife it’s wrong. “Yes.”
So, stepping forwards and standing a little taller as to reach him, Phil gave Dan a lingering kiss that left his lips tingling and his heart pounding. “Moonflowers are hard to grow,” Phil whispered. “But I can get you more cattails. You’ll know what it means?”
No I can’t I won’t my wife it’s wrong I love y- “Yes. I’ll understand.”
Phil nodded, once more, and pulled whatever it was out of his pocket, placing it in Dan’s hands, but Dan couldn’t look away from his face to see what it was. “I’ll see you again,” Phil promised.
“I’ll see you again,” Dan agreed.
And with that, they parted ways.
—-
It was a blue rose. “Blue roses cannot be achieved naturally,” he read, back in the warmth and safety of his bedroom, “and thus have particular value. A pure blue rose is hard, though not incredibly so, to come by. Furthermore, they represent the unattainable or the mysterious. Giving someone a blue rose symbolizes ‘I want you but can’t have y-’”
“Daniel?”
And once more, he startled, almost dropping his flower bible. “It’s late Darling, what are you doing here?”
Rose stood in Dan’s doorway, waiting for permission to come in. They slept in their own separate chambers, as was custom, so Rose needed permission to go into her husband’s dressing rooms. “I’m sorry to disturb you,” she said bashfully, and it was then that Dan realized she was in her dressing gown, not her day clothes. “I just wanted to talk to you. You seemed… upset, earlier.”
Dan blinked. “Um… yes, you may come in.”
His wife sat on his bed gracefully, leaning back and stretching out her legs, one at a time. For whatever reason, Dan was enthralled by the action, his mind dizzy and unsure. “Yes…. you had something you wanted to tell me?” He remembered, trying to focus.
Rose hummed, closing her eyes. “I miss you.”
Chuckling, Dan walked over and sat next to her on the bed. Though in truth- he had been sitting closer to Phil. “You miss me?” He smiled, amused at her words. “Darling, I’ve been around all day. What is there to miss?”
She stretched more, and Dan realized perhaps she didn’t come to talk. “I miss our conversations,” she admitted, voice soft and deep, rolling like the stream from before. “I miss…. talking with you. I miss being happy with you. And I miss… something else.”
“You’ve overstepping your boundaries,” Dan warned, though he wasn’t sure why. Everyone had always told him that he should never let his wife talk to him this way, as if she were his equal. But then again….
“Is it wrong because you believe it is, or because you’ve been told it is?” Phil had said. And Dan should really think about something other than the words of the silly florist, but he just couldn’t forget. “Well?”
“I’m sorry,” Dan admitted, the words feeling strange on his tongue. “That was… rude, and ungentlemanly of me. Please forgive me.”
“Forgive me.”
“There’s nothing to forgive.”
“Yes, there is! I should’ve have done that!”
“There’s nothing to forgive!”
“You’ve been stressed,” Rose said, pulling him from his thoughts. “Of course I forgive you.”
Her hand was on his arm, and it made Dan feel some type of way. “Rose… why’d you come here tonight?”
She leaned forwards, closer, so both hands were on his shoulders and she was leaning against him, and he could feel her breath but it was different from Phil’s. And she didn’t smell like flowers, didn’t smell like Phil. And Dan didn’t know how he felt about that.
“I told you,” she muttered, whispered as she leaned in close. And she was so warm, and he was being so stupid, and this was right- this was the right thing, not Phil, not his flirtations, that Dan had to close the gap, kissing his wife because it was right. What happened in the woods was wrong, and this was right. Rose was his wife, and despite how he felt about Phil, he loved her.
Their kiss became deeper than his and Phil’s did very quickly. Dan kissed her harder, telling himself this was right.
But he couldn’t pretend that how he kept picturing the silly florist’s face was anything but wrong.
Part 3 / Fic Masterpost / Ao3
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kyeleereads · 7 years
Text
The unperceived: ‘nature’
Week 1: Context
This marks the first week of Master of Architecture 2 and the first week of readings assigned in my new elective: ARCH7375 - Design After Nature. Setting out the tone of each class in imperative to our understanding of topics discussed. This elective simply took the word, ‘nature’ and shone a bright spotlight on the implications of our understanding - what it means by nature. 
The readings from this week includes: 
William Cronon. “The Trouble with Wilderness; or, Getting Back to the Wrong Nature.” Uncommon Ground: Rethinking the Human Place in Nature, New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 1995, 69-90)
A text redefining nature - two conflicting realms of human vs. nature and how we should alter this understanding 
Foucault, Michel. Of Other Spaces, Heterotopias. 1967.
Time space use and distinction through the introduction of new terminology: Heterotopias and the definition(s). 
Schwagrel, Christian. The Anthropocene. Reiman Verlag. 2014. pp. 31-69
A general overview of the development of the term, the Anthropocene and what the implications are on a larger scale. 
Morton, Timothy. Hyperobjects: Philosophy and Ecology after the End of the World. 2013. p 1-37; 99-133.
What hyperobjects are. That is all I will comment on for now.
Gissen, David. Subnature: Architecture’s Other Environments. Princeton Architectural Press. 2009. p 21-99. In terms of content, Subnature demonstrates a perception and appreciation our environment is as much a social construct as it is a part of ecological processes. 
This week’s readings created a whirlwind of general knowledge, scientific knowledge, philosophy and commentary on nature for me to consume. It was repetitive, complex and mind bending content. I have, being a Geography major during Secondary school, understand the basic concepts on climate change (I refuse to adhere to global warming right now, as I believe it still holds urgency in the terminology, take that Christian Schwägerl), but to question to the very essence of the term, Nature, was almost unthinkable. Let me unpack this sudden change in ideology to my thinking further in this journal entry. 
Michel Foucault has always been difficult for me to read, let alone understand. This text has been much kinder to me, but the large scale of understanding and interpretation has always jarring and a slap-in-the face ordeal. 
Here he introduces the “ epoch of simultaneity, we are the epoch of juxtaposition”, where the world is now a bunch of technical connections between each component, where everything is riddled with accountability, series of complex processes, where “relations of proximity between points or elements” are calculate and situated on a site. This complexity has developed from a “hierarchic ensemble of places” to a new “form of relations among sites”. 
This leads to a larger scale labelling of a new phenomenon: heterotopias. It supposedly accommodates every human group, created for a “precise and determined function”, capable of juxtaposition, slices in time and somewhat opened and closed at the same time - penetrable. These places create an illusionary space that is either exposing of a reality or a space of meticulous re-creation of a real space. 
Examples of Heterotopias: 
Crisis heterotopias- Elderly Homes, adolescents, pregnant women
Heterotopias of deviation - rest homes, psychiatric hospitals, prisons 
Gardens
Cinema
Museums
Libraries 
What has this got to do with nature? 
Foucault questions the creation of human ‘communities’ - though he would never label it as so as the term has too much association with the cultural aspect of the human condition, but I must insist it is the creation of an almost new nature of the human. It attempts to explain our complex processes into a succinct term - the heterotopias. 
This reading ties into William Cronon’s “The trouble with wilderness; or, Getting back to the Wrong Nature” where he reveals how Nature is being seen - how to “rethink wilderness”. Nature has been for many years related to the “non-human”, to the biblical references, to the “pristine sanctuary” and the “sublime”. We must understand how nature has been correlated with the untouchable, with a certain closeness with the gods. In many cultural interpretations of our world, we refer to nature as the untouched. 
It is deeply embedded in our culture to separate man from nature, “wilderness embodies a dualistic vision in which the human is entirely outside the natural” (p11p3). It is a “cultural invention”. Tourism, country parks, forest reserves. Nature represents the “primitive living”(p7p2), it symbolises a “bold free spirit” to ”escape the confining strictures of civilised life” (p8p1).  
Cronon describes wilderness as “specific habits of thinking that flow from this complex cultural construction” - here lies a paradox - “if nature dies because we enter it, then the only way to save nature is to kill ourselves” (p13p4)
What I find fascinating in this text is the idea that there is a hidden network of nature which surround us, almost like a heterotopia where it is invisible. The humans have created environmental change, and we should aim to create a “balanced, sustainable relationship”(p16p1) with nature. 
In Schwägerl’s text, the Anthropocene, it takes the concept a step further in describing how “people see themselves as active, integrated participants in an emerging new nature” (p33p1). The texts explores the term, Anthropocene and the impacts humans have created on earth. It too agrees with how “wild nature no longer exists on land or out at sea”. (p37p2) The phenomenons Schwägerl describes are mostly common knowledge, but what was most intriguing was the formation of the ages. 
The Holocene is a term used frequently in the text - it refers to a time which encompasses the growth and impacts of the human species worldwide - from cultural written history and development of major civilisation.  This all encompassing term is now challenged by the term Anthropocene, when the “bio technologists are starting to control the forces of life” (p44p1). The lines blur between a phenomenon of nature or a phenomenon of man - “has the beautiful plant growing at the side of the road been cultivated in a bio-lab or is it wild? ... Do the clouds in the summer sky come from Mother Nature or are they jet plan vapour trails?” Such small day-to-day phenomenons are being questioned, and this challenges the fabric of reality. Must we make such a distinction? Must everything be connected too? 
In Chapter four, the term Anthropocene is explored through a historical perspective. How did it appear? Beginning with the measure of time, “terrestrial time keepers” (p49p4) through the investigation of rocks and stratas, here one starts to observe epochs in time. This term was used by the famous Paul Crutzen, of whom pushed it’s validity through political, scientific and also common knowledge transfers. It is now a common term in our in the past 10 years. 
Then the question of who takes responsibility - it is obvious that the largest, most advanced nations has caused harm unto those on the other end of the spectrum. Is it up to politicians to strive to undo all the consequences of the “Western wealth, power and consumerism?” (p65p1)
Hyperobjects is long, unsettling and challenging read. Unlike the kind, easily accessible tone Schwägerl text offered, Morten dives in with a multitude of references (many of which I have yet to explore further) and philosophical ideologies I have yet to understand. I turned to the peer review journals to explore summaries from others to aid me in my conquest to understand such an extensive well of a text, and I found these thoughts to continue upon:
Hyperobjects - things that the scale of which exceeds the human comprehension. They are dimensional, non-local entities. These objects are massively distributed in time and space, transcending the ideology of localisation. i.e. climate change. 
From this definition alone, it correlates with the idea of Heterotopia - although in a larger scale. It demands the implication of a new era, a new age almost. 
I believe I need to spend more time reading and thinking about Morten’s text - I can see it is referenced in later lectures and I wish to explore it further.
All these readings as a whole take the world by storm, creating new revelations, creating new perspectives to see the world. It was a wonderful introduction into nature and the Anthropocene. I can’t help but to think how these thoughts can be translated into action, into actual world impact, into the generation of a new ideology to observe nature through a mentality of being an integral part of humanity - of our existence. Co-existence may be the key. 
0 notes
sunshineweb · 7 years
Text
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets
Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.
We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.
Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.
Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.
It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.
In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.
As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”
He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.
Now, he writes this in his latest memo –
I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.
Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –
A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).
A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.
Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.
More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.
Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.
Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.
The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.
The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.
Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.
The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.
Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.
But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –
…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.
“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?
As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –
Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.
No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.
Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.
So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –
The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.
Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.
In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –
“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.
The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –
…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –
awareness of history,
belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,
skepticism regarding the free lunch, and
insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.
The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:
Are prospective returns adequate?
Are investors appropriately risk-averse?
Are they applying skepticism and discipline?
Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?
Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?
Are deal structures fair to investors?
Are investors declining any of the new deals?
Are there limits on faith in the future?
The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.
I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:
If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.
What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –
First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.
Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.
Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”
Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.
Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.
Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).
Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.
To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.
But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.
Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
You have my best wishes.
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heliosfinance · 7 years
Text
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets
Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.
We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.
Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.
Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.
It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.
In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.
As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”
He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.
Now, he writes this in his latest memo –
I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.
Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –
A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).
A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.
Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.
More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.
Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.
Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.
The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.
The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.
Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.
The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.
Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.
But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –
…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.
“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?
As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –
Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.
No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.
Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.
So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –
The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.
Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.
In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –
“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.
The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –
…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –
awareness of history,
belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,
skepticism regarding the free lunch, and
insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.
The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:
Are prospective returns adequate?
Are investors appropriately risk-averse?
Are they applying skepticism and discipline?
Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?
Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?
Are deal structures fair to investors?
Are investors declining any of the new deals?
Are there limits on faith in the future?
The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.
I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:
If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.
What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –
First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.
Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.
Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”
Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.
Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.
Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).
Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.
To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.
But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.
Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
You have my best wishes.
The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on http://ift.tt/2ljLF4B
0 notes
heliosfinance · 7 years
Text
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets
Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.
We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.
Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.
Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.
It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.
In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.
As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”
He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.
Now, he writes this in his latest memo –
I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.
Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –
A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).
A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.
Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.
More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.
Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.
Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.
The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.
The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.
Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.
The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.
Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.
But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –
…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.
“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?
As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –
Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.
No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.
Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.
So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –
The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.
Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.
In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –
“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.
The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –
…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –
awareness of history,
belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,
skepticism regarding the free lunch, and
insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.
The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:
Are prospective returns adequate?
Are investors appropriately risk-averse?
Are they applying skepticism and discipline?
Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?
Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?
Are deal structures fair to investors?
Are investors declining any of the new deals?
Are there limits on faith in the future?
The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.
I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:
If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.
What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –
First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.
Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.
Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”
Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.
Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.
Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).
Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.
To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.
But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.
Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
You have my best wishes.
The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on http://ift.tt/2ljLF4B
0 notes
heliosfinance · 7 years
Text
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets
Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.
We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.
Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.
Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.
It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.
In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.
As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”
He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.
Now, he writes this in his latest memo –
I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.
Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –
A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).
A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.
Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.
More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.
Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.
Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.
The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.
The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.
Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.
The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.
Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.
But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –
…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.
“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?
As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –
Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.
No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.
Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.
So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –
The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.
Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.
In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –
“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.
The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –
…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –
awareness of history,
belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,
skepticism regarding the free lunch, and
insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.
The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:
Are prospective returns adequate?
Are investors appropriately risk-averse?
Are they applying skepticism and discipline?
Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?
Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?
Are deal structures fair to investors?
Are investors declining any of the new deals?
Are there limits on faith in the future?
The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.
I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:
If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.
What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –
First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.
Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.
Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”
Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.
Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.
Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).
Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.
To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.
But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.
Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
You have my best wishes.
The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on http://ift.tt/2ljLF4B
0 notes
sunshineweb · 7 years
Text
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets
Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.
We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.
Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.
Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.
It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.
In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.
As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”
He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.
Now, he writes this in his latest memo –
I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.
Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –
A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).
A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.
Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.
More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.
Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.
Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.
The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.
The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.
Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.
The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.
Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.
But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –
…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.
“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?
As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –
Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.
No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.
Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.
So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –
The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.
Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.
In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –
“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.
The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –
…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –
awareness of history,
belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,
skepticism regarding the free lunch, and
insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.
The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:
Are prospective returns adequate?
Are investors appropriately risk-averse?
Are they applying skepticism and discipline?
Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?
Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?
Are deal structures fair to investors?
Are investors declining any of the new deals?
Are there limits on faith in the future?
The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.
I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:
If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.
What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –
First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.
Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.
Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”
Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.
Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.
Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).
Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.
To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.
But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.
Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
You have my best wishes.
The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/
0 notes
sunshineweb · 7 years
Text
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets
Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.
We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.
Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.
Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.
It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.
In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.
As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”
He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.
Now, he writes this in his latest memo –
I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.
Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –
A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).
A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.
Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.
More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.
Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.
Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.
The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.
The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.
Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.
The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.
Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.
But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –
…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.
“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?
As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –
Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.
No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.
Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.
So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –
The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.
Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.
In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –
“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.
The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –
…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –
awareness of history,
belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,
skepticism regarding the free lunch, and
insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.
The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:
Are prospective returns adequate?
Are investors appropriately risk-averse?
Are they applying skepticism and discipline?
Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?
Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?
Are deal structures fair to investors?
Are investors declining any of the new deals?
Are there limits on faith in the future?
The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.
I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:
If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.
What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –
First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.
Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.
Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”
Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.
Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.
Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).
Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.
To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.
But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.
Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
You have my best wishes.
The post Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets appeared first on Safal Niveshak.
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets published first on https://mbploans.tumblr.com/
0 notes
heliosfinance · 7 years
Text
Move Forward, But with Caution: Lessons from Howard Marks on How to Deal with Bull Markets
Recent advances in neuroscience and physiology have shown that when we take risk, including financial risk, we do a lot more than just think about it.
We prepare for it physically. Our bodies, expecting action, switch on an emergency network of physiological circuitry, and the resulting surge in electrical and chemical activity feeds back on the brain, affecting the way it thinks. In this way, the body and the brain string together as a single entity, united in the face of challenge.
Normally, this fusion of body and brain provides us with the fast reactions and gut feelings we need for successful risk-taking. But under some circumstances, these chemical surges can overwhelm us. And when this happens to investors, they come to suffer an irrational exuberance (or pessimism) that can destabilize the financial markets and subsequently wreak havoc on investors’ wealth creation process.
Consider bull markets. When rising stock prices start to validate investors’ belief, the profits they make translate into a lot more than mere greed. They bring on powerful feelings of euphoria and supremacy.
It is at this point that investors feel the bonds of worldly life slip from their shoulders and they begin to flex their muscles like a newborn superhero.
In such situations, assessment of risk is replaced by verdicts of certainty (like “Nifty is quickly headed towards 20,000 points” or “This time it’s different” thinking). Most investors just know what is going to happen with the stock market in general, and their stock prices in particular. And it is such a time in the financial markets’ journey that requires someone like the legendary investor Howard Marks to write one of his most cautionary memos to clients of his fund Oaktree Capital.
As Marks mentions in his latest memo, there have been several times he has written cautionary memos in past. But he confesses at the very start of this memo, “Some of the memos I’m happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated.”
He wrote one such memo on the first day of 2000 (bubble.com), when the dotcom bubble was near its peak. The other was in February 2007 (The Race to the Bottom), just when last major crisis was nearing its peak.
Now, he writes this in his latest memo –
I’m convinced “they” are at it again – engaging in willing risk-taking, funding risky deals and creating risky market conditions – it’s time for yet another cautionary memo. Too soon? I hope so; we’d rather make money for our clients in the next year or two than see the kind of bust that gives rise to bargains. (We all want there to be bargains, but no one’s eager to endure the price declines that create them.) Since we never know when risky behavior will bring on a market correction, I’m going to issue a warning today rather than wait until one is upon us.
Marks then shares a list of the elements that typically form the foundation for a bull market, boom or bubble (quotes in italics are mine) –
A benign environment (exists) – good results lull investors into complacency, as they get used to having their positive expectations rewarded. Gains in the recent past encourage the heated pursuit of further gains in the future (rather than suggest that past gains might have borrowed from future gains).
A grain of truth (exists) – the story supporting a boom isn’t created out of whole cloth; it generally coalesces around something real. The seed usually isn’t imaginary, just eventually overblown.
Early success (yes, seen all around) – the gains enjoyed by the “wise man in the beginning” – the first to seize upon the grain of truth – tends to attract “the fool in the end” who jumps in too late.
More money than ideas (yes, yes, yes) – when capital is in oversupply, it is inevitable that risk aversion dries up, gullibility expands, and investment standards are relaxed.
Willing suspension of disbelief (doesn’t seem as of now, but we’re almost getting there) – the quest for gain overcomes prudence and deference to history. Everyone concludes “this time it’s different.” No story is too good to be true.
Rejection of valuation norms (exists) – all we hear is, “the asset is so great: there’s no price too high.” Buying into a fad regardless of price is the absolute hallmark of a bubble.
The pursuit of the new (yes, youngsters are getting richer faster) – old timers fare worst in a boom, with the gains going disproportionately to those who are untrammeled by knowledge of the past and thus able to buy into an entirely new future.
The virtuous circle (exists) – no one can see any end to the potential of the underlying truth or how high it can push the prices of related assets. It’s broadly accepted that trees can grow to the sky: “It can only go up. Nothing can stop it.” Certainly, no one can picture things taking a turn for the worse.
Fear of missing out (can see all around) – when all the above becomes widespread, optimism prevails and no one can imagine a glitch. That causes most people to conclude that the greatest potential error lies in failing to participate in the current market darling.
The healthy part about the current times Marks mentions is that, while many of the things listed above are in play today, some of the usual ingredients are missing.
Unlike what we last saw in the 2007 boom period, many investors today are conscious of the uncertainties listed above, and also recognize that prospective returns are quite skimpy. Many also accept that things are unlikely to go well forever.
But the big problem we have on hand is that most of us cannot think of what might cause trouble anytime soon. This leads Marks to write –
…it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can’t see. With the negative catalyst so elusive and the return on cash at punitive levels, people worry more about being underinvested or bearing too little risk (and thus earning too low a return in good markets) than they do about losing money.
“How difficult could this get?” you may start to wonder when you read that even a legend like Marks is doubting whether he’s early to sound the caution bells. But who said investing was easy?
As Morgan Housel wrote in one of his recent posts –
Investing is not easy. Why? Because most of matters can’t be easily defined as black or white. It’s a vague, shifting shade of grey.
No analyst or fund manager on television will ever tell you this – that investing is not easy, even for them. No superstar investor on social media will do it either.
Of course, the rules of success in investing are simple and have been laid down clearly for decades now, first by Mr. Graham, then by Mr. Fisher, and then refined by Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. But the not easy part is taking these lessons seriously and practicing them over long periods of time, especially in today’s times when too much information and too much noise crowds these lessons out of an investors’ brain. And when too many people are seeking instant gratification.
So, What to Do Now? Chess legend Garry Kasparov advises this in the introduction of his book How Life Imitates Chess –
The stock market and the gridiron and the battlefield aren’t as tidy as the chessboard. But in all of them, a single simple rule holds true: make good decisions and you’ll succeed; make bad ones and you’ll fail.
Make good decisions. Yes, that’s the best advice. Always make good decisions…whether times are good or whether they are bad. Certain or uncertain. Also, while making decisions, caution must always be the keyword for a sensible investor.
In fact, Mr. Marks has re-rung the cautious bell like he does in most of his memos. In his latest one, he mentions about continuing to follow his 2012 mantra –
“move forward, but with caution” – and, given today’s conditions, with even more caution than in the recent past.
The last part of his memo is particularly enlightening because here he offers us on a platter all he may have learned about dealing with bull markets in his decades of investment experience. Here’s that part verbatim –
…the keys to avoiding the classic mistakes (in such market conditions are) –
awareness of history,
belief in cycles rather than unabated, unidirectional trends,
skepticism regarding the free lunch, and
insistence on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
Adherence to these things – all parts of the canon of defensive investing – invariably will cause you to miss the most exciting part of bull markets, when trends reach irrational extremes and prices go from fair to excessive. But they’ll also make you a long-term survivor. I can’t help thinking that’s a prerequisite for investment success.
The checklist for market sanity and safety is simple, and the answers will tell you what to do:
Are prospective returns adequate?
Are investors appropriately risk-averse?
Are they applying skepticism and discipline?
Are they demanding sufficient risk premiums?
Are valuations reasonable relative to historic standards?
Are deal structures fair to investors?
Are investors declining any of the new deals?
Are there limits on faith in the future?
The basic proposition is simple: Investors make the most and the safest money when they do things other people don’t want to do. But when investors are unworried and glad to make risky investments (or worried but investing anyway, because the low-risk alternatives are unappealing), asset prices will be high, risk premiums will be low, and markets will be risky. That’s what happens when there’s too much money and too little fear.
I’ll close with a final “ditto,” from “The Race to the Bottom” of just over ten years ago:
If you refuse to fall into line in carefree markets like today’s, it’s likely that, for a while, you’ll (a) lag in terms of return and (b) look like an old fogey. But neither of those is much of a price to pay if it means keeping your head (and capital) when others eventually lose theirs. In my experience, times of laxness have always been followed eventually by corrections in which penalties are imposed. It may not happen this time, but I’ll take that risk.
What Am I Doing Now? I don’t claim to be among the smartest investors out there, so knowing what I’m doing now shouldn’t matter to you much. But, just for its fun element, here is what I’m doing with my savings and investments now –
First, I am not selling (or looking to sell) my high-quality investments just because their valuations have reached a high level. In fact, I don’t intend to sell such stocks ever, till I need to meet a financial goal or till the underlying businesses give me reasons to sell them.
Second, if I’m finding value in certain pockets of the market, I am investing instead of waiting for even perfect values.
Third, I am completely off the temptation of buying “chor” (crooked) companies and managements. I don’t buy into this theory of searching for value in garbage quality stuff just because there’s nothing available of the high-quality stuff. I remind myself of what Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.”
Fourth, I understand and highly appreciate this fact that being a part-time investor who is not dependent on the stock market for his living puts me under no obligation to act at all times. When I have nothing to do in the markets, I do nothing. I love this flexibility and put it to complete use.
Fifth, I understand that I am not entitled to “always high prices” from my stocks. And thus, I keep my bulls**t indicator on high alert when I see someone pitching me even higher prices. I have never bought blindly on tips, and I maintain such a stance however attractive the proposition looks like. As a wise man said, “Tips are just that. Tips. Following blindly is setting you up for epic ruin.” This is especially true in markets like these.
Sixth, to act on my increased caution with every surge in prices, I am allocating a smaller portion of my incremental savings to equities (the rest goes to liquid funds etc.).
Seventh (and I’ll end here for it’s my lucky number), I am spending less and less time thinking and looking at the stock market and my stocks, and more time reading, doing nothing, and fooling around with my family. That keeps me away from all or any madness that others deeply involved in stocks may be bearing now.
To repeat, all this that I am doing should not be a big deal for you.
But what Mr. Marks says, I think, should be.
Remember history and learn from it. Ask questions. Believe in cycles. Be skeptical. Insist on low purchase prices that provide lots of room for error.
You have my best wishes.
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