#DEFENSE | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

briebysabs · 1 month

Text

Lu Guang is a hypocrite and that’s okay (great even)

I must stand ten toes for this man because I’m noticing the slander that went on in September and I cannot allow it. I know I’m six months late but just bear with me. We are introduced to Lu Guang as a rational, stoic, sort of wise protagonist. The brains of the operation if you will (although Cheng is clever in his own right but that’s a whole other discussion). Qiao Ling and Captain Xiao describe him as more mature. Shiguang’s relationship is strong but it’s structured, especially for their work, to where Cheng has to depend on Lu Guang. Should only do as he says and not do anything impulsive.

And it gets to a point where Cheng doesn’t know what to do without him and when LG isn’t there he relies on his past words to guide him. The thing is, we’ve seen that CXS can come up with great plans and make good decisions without Lu Guang’s voice in his head. Like how he caught Min Liu or planning how save Lu Guang from Li Tianchen. But the story has built LG up so much to be a reliable character so it can’t be untrue. But then the s2 finale happens, Cheng gets shot and Lu Guang loses his mind.

And then the ending basically tells you that he’s been winging it and gambling this whole time. Experimenting with god knows how many timelines, simply using his knowledge from the previous one to see if he’ll get lucky this time. Lu Guang has been playing a crane game. So in a story that is all about mistakes, guilt and regrets. Of showing the imperfections of people. Of showing the struggles of moving forward, of being satisfied with the present. Of sacrificing your sanity, your voice, your desires, and happiness for the people you love. How is this bad writing?

Link click has been tricking the audience to believe Lu Guang is an infallible character.

But Link Click was never about perfect people.

What he’s trying to do is no different from Li Tianchen, one of our antagonists. And I love CXS to fucking pieces but this show raises the question of a life’s value. LG is trying to save Cheng and so refuses to change the past for anyone else. Bc it may alter things and doom CXS in the process and ruin all he’s worked towards. But then you ask yourself, is CXS’s life worth more than the twins' mother? Is it worth more than Chen’s mother? Is it worth more than Emma?

It doesn’t matter because it is to Lu Guang. It’s like the question if your sibling and a mailman are trapped in a burning building but you can only try to save one. Unless they’re the absolute scum of the earth, chances are and possibly even despite that, you’re going to pick your sibling. That don’t mean it’s objectively more valuable than the mailman or you didn’t have sympathy for that person, they have loved ones, hopes and joys too. “Lu Guang is a hypocrite, selfish, unreliable, and a liar” yes he is. Because there is something called ‘flawed characters’. It’s okay for your protagonist to not be the best person. It’s okay to write a protagonist whose trauma has defined some of their actions.

If you’ve been forced to have someone you love die in your arms over and over, why is it surprising that you would lie to them? How is it surprising that you’d try to keep secrets? That you’d set things up to be in a position to control the situation? That’ll force you to plan better so maybe, just maybe things will be different? You think Lu Guang lacks self awareness and doesn’t know what this makes him? Of all things you can call LG, he’s not delusional. He knows the weight of his actions.

Link Click has and always will be a story about people. Where our emotions and choices take us. Lu Guang isn’t a robot so why would he be an exception?

Plus everyone should’ve been knew Lu Guang was sus anyway. Idk how that’s mischaracterization, there’s proof of him lying and keeping secrets from CXS in s1. It doesn’t ruin anything it recontextualizes what we were shown back then.

122 notes · View notes

wartakes · 1 month

Text

Firewatch (March 2024 edition, Part 1)

Yes, finally, the first War Takes essay for 2024. In it, I decided to take some time to consider some of the major flashpoints for crises and conflicts in the world, and I ended up writing so much I had to divide it up to post it on Tumblr (lmao). Part 1, under the cut. Enjoy.

It occurred to me recently, looking at my feeds on social media, that I've been (for the most part) laser focused on what's going on in Palestine and the broader Middle East. To a lesser, but still strong, extent, I've also primarily been focused on the state of the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine. While I think there are very good reasons for the focus on those two conflicts, its also made me realize how much more that has been going on in the world of conflicts and crises that has passed me by (or that I've intended to talk about and then completely forgotten about by the end of the day).

With all that in mind, for my first quarterly essay of 2024, I decided now was a good time to go around the horn, widen the aperture, and identify some other ongoing armed conflicts and burgeoning crises that are important to keep an eye on. It's been a while since I've done one of these in general, so I felt it was overdue (it also works out well for me because I had exactly zero ideas on what I wanted to write about for this one so consider this my equivalent of the teacher wheeling the big TV into the classroom when they're hung over).

I want to try and formalize this as a recurring piece that I do (at least) once a year to update folks on important goings on in the field of conflict and warfare, so with that in mind I have a fun new flashy name for it: "Firewatch." This isn't just me trying to be cute, but putting it in the context of "fires" also actually helps me a bit with trying to categorize things by severity and level of concern that (in my opinion) you should probably have at this moment in time.

Before we get into things, a few up front disclaimers. First: these are all entirely subjective assessments based on my own personal analysis and knowledge, with my being stronger in some areas and admittedly weaker in others; take it all with a grain of salt and know I'm not perfect; in that same vein, I picked conflicts that I thought in my opinion were the most important to keep an eye on at the moment, but that doesn't mean that others aren't worth your attention (again, this is all subjective and I'm not trying to overtly dismiss anything). Second: these are all based on what information I could find at the time of writing, and the situations could all change rapidly (my Haiti piece in this was literally changing as I was writing it), so keep that in mind too and know that this could all be made out of date rapidly by new events. Third and final: again, I'm not perfect; if I missed anything, I swear it wasn't a purposeful omission and I apologize and please let me know so I can reassess my analysis; I'm only one guy, and the internet is getting harder to search these days; I'm doing my best to just try and keep folks on the Left informed about what's going on.

Ok, with all that out of the way, let's dig in to what's going on with the fires out there.

Roaring Flames

These are the conflicts that are at the point that not only are things on fire, the flames are rising and being actively fanned in many cases. These are conflicts you've probably already heard about in between other pieces of news, but may not have as much depth on compared to other ongoing events (unless you're a weirdo like me who soaks up conflict news like a sponge).

Sudan

Sudan has been locked in a civil war (its third since independence, if you're counting) for what will be a year this coming April. Coming on the heels of years of political upheaval and a prior coup against a civilian transitional government launched by the Sudanese Armed Forces in 2021, the war was sparked by an attempt by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to then seize power from the SAF back in April of 2023 amid a power struggle between the two forces. When the RSF coup went off half-cocked and failed to immediately take over the entire country from the SAF, you'd probably have been making the smart bet by putting your money on the SAF as opposed to the RSF. While both forces were roughly comparable in numbers of personnel (a lesson in why you shouldn't build a parallel military to compete with your military), the SAF had all the advantages in heavy firepower, possessing tanks, helicopters, jets, and so on.

However, the SAF has proven unable to snuff out the RSF over the past ten months or so of fighting, with the group proving remarkably resilient in its ability to take and hold territory throughout Sudan. This is despite the fact that the RSF is widely feared and hated, descendant from the infamous Janjaweed militias that were used by Bashir's regime during the War in Darfur to commit numerous crimes against humanity. In fact, after much of 2023 being a stalemate for both sides in Sudan, the RSF has made notable gains against the SAF in recent weeks and months, with the momentum of the war seemingly shifting dramatically in its favor. Part of this has had to do with increasing international involvement, with the leaders on both sides of the civil war seeking and gaining foreign support on the battlefield, such as supposed weapons support provided by the United Arab Emirates to the RSF, or even reported support by the Ukrainian special operations forces to the SAF (facing off against the late-Yevgeny Prigozhin's Russian PMC Wagner Group who have also been providing support to the RSF). However, in recent days the SAF appears to have had a rebound of its own, securing some high profile reversals against the RSF, showing that the outcome of this war is anything but certain just yet.

The international involvement in Sudan belies why this conflict should be on your radar. Obviously, a civil war in any country with almost 50 million people, like Sudan, will have widespread repercussions. Add in the fact that Sudan is located along the strategically important Red Sea (very topical at the moment, as you may have noticed), and also lays astride the Nile river, and you see even more reasons why international interest in Sudan is high. Add in the potential of the RSF winning the war and taking control of Sudan after having cut a swatch of indiscriminate destruction across the country, and more problems seem almost immediately around the corner (let me be clear, the SAF junta is by no means 'good', but the RSF is a unique kind of bad in its own right). An additional complicating factor comes from Sudan being between Egypt and Ethiopia, which have both sparred and threatened one another over usage of the Nile River (to say nothing of Ethiopia's own internal issues, which will come up later). But if you don't care about any of that, there's the sheer human cost in terms of civilians brutally killed, forced to flee their homes, and potentially starve. In so many words: this is a conflict to keep a close eye on if you haven't been already, both for reasons of geopolitics and of simple humanity.

Myanmar (Burma)

Thinking about Sudan makes me depressed, because all I can think about is all the innocent civilians caught in between bad (the SAF) and worse (the RSF), just trying to survive it all. But if there's one conflict going on right now that actually gives me some degree of hope for the people involved – and for humanity in general, really – its the ongoing civil war in Myanmar (AKA: Burma), which I've covered to varying extents in several past essays of mine.

Like with Sudan, the initial spark that eventually led to Myanmar's war was a coup d'etat. The Myanmar Armed Forces (commonly referred to as the "Tatmadaw" - or more preferred by those resisting the military: the "Sit-Tat") had already previously been in total control of the country of decades, and the coup came after years of apparent shifts towards democratization in the country. However, this was all dashed in the course of a day on February 1st, 2021, after the election held the previous November failed to deliver the result the military wanted.

An ethnically and religiously diverse country, Myanmar was already host to a number of political and paramilitary organizations that have waged low-level conflict against the central government (largely dominated by the Burmans or Bamar ethnic group, which makes up around two thirds of Myanmar's population) for decades, in search of better treatment and varying degrees of autonomy. But the brazenness of the 2021 coup and the incredibly brutal and violent crackdown by the military that ensued against those who openly opposed the usurpation of democracy, has served to not only energize and encourage resistance to shift to outright armed opposition, but also galvanize a broad front against the Sit-Tat and create a new sense of unity between the People's Defense Force stood up by the anti-coup National Unity Government to fight back against the Sit-Tat (many of their members overwhelmingly young people and students from the Bamar majority who protested the initial coup) and the preexisting ethnic armed groups.

The unity and energy that the combined opposition is bringing to the table seems to be paying dividends, as in recent weeks and months the junta appears to be on the ropes. Previously propped up with support from Russia and China, the Sit-Tat has been left wanting in that department as Russia has been increasingly distracted by its own war of aggression in Ukraine and China has been perturbed by the junta's inability to control Myanmar's shared border with China (which is one of several factors that has led China to lend support to some of the opposition groups and attempt to play a double game and preserve its relationships and influence in the country no matter how the war turns out). Due in no small part to the drying up of support to the junta and increased coordination and unity among the opposition, Sit-Tat has lost significant ground to the resistance in a series of offensives that have been ongoing since late last year. The situation has become so dire for the Sit-Tat that it has reportedly had to resort to enforce conscription for the first time in years (a move that has made many living in Sit-Tat controlled territory reportedly very eager to move out of it, for obvious reasons).

The international isolation of the Junta and its constant reversals on the battlefield seem to suggest that its living on borrowed time. However, many questions about this war remain to be answered; not simply when the Junta will fall, but what comes next? There is admittedly a possibility that the situation in Myanmar may not improve once the Sit-Tat is gone, or could even become worse – with some worrying the country could be ripped apart entirely. The prospect of infighting among the diverse members of the opposition shouldn't be ignored given Myanmar's history of internal ethnic conflict, but the idealist buried deep down under my cynicism holds out hope that this time things may really be different for the country. While the number of armed groups opposed to the Junta in Myanmar is vast and varied, most seem to be generally united under the ideas that authoritarian rule is unacceptable and that there should be some kind of confederal or federal democratic system in Myanmar with respect for the rights of all the groups of peoples that live there. While a lot could still go wrong and many issues that will need to be worked out in the aftermath if and when the resistance forces win, I say that's at least a good starting point for a new Myanmar and worth supporting and hoping for. This is why I continue to keep a close eye on what's going on in Myanmar even as other crises and conflicts fill me with more negative emotions, and I continue to hope the best for Myanmar and its people.

Haiti

Haiti is a country that has been plagued by a myriad of issues since it first gained its independence from France, many of them the result of outside interference. The state wasn't even recognized by many countries for decades for reasons of outright racism and slavery, with France later forcing Haiti to pay it reparations for the loss of French planters' slaves in the revolt that won them their freedom. Haiti then suffered imperialism in another guise through a twenty-year long occupation by the US Marines starting in 1915, with the US later helping to prop up the brutal dictatorships of the Duvalier family that lasted from the late 1950s through the 1980s. The 1915 US intervention was only the first in a series of 20th and 21st century outside military interventions by the United States and the international community as a whole that typically did nothing to substantively improve the conditions within the country (and arguably making them worse in some cases).

Even given the scale of the prior trials and tribulations Haiti has experienced, be it coups and earthquakes and various interventions, the country now faces a crisis unprecedented for it in modern times, with the country in the midst of an open revolt by armed gangs that is bordering on civil war. The current crisis began with the dramatic assassination of then-President of Haiti Jovenel Moise in July 2021, when a group of foreign mercenaries (primarily Colombians but including two Haitian Americans) that were reportedly hired by a Haitian doctor with Presidential aspirations stormed into the President's home in the Haitian capital of Port-Au-Prince and gunned him down. The President's murder created a power vacuum in the country, which was filled by Prime Minister Ariel Henry. In the time since taking over, Henry has failed to hold fresh elections on multiple occasions as tensions mounted and conditions worsened inside of Haiti, with armed gangs steadily expanding their control of the capital and levels of violence rising.

It was the most recent delaying of new elections – despite an agreement to hold them and pass on power by February 7th of this year – that served as impetus for the violence to escalate to its current level. Gangs and other armed groups have stepped up their violence to outright attacks on government buildings and institutions and stretching already overtaxed and under-resourced police and security forces to the limit and reportedly taking control of over 80% of the capital. These gangs appeared to have coordinated their actions, launching their wave of attacks as Henry was out of the country on a visit to Kenya in search of foreign police and troops to intervene in the country on his behalf. As Henry struggled to re-enter his own country, the gangs called for his ouster. After days of stonewalling and radio silence, following a conference of the Caribbean Community in Jamaica, Henry did just that.

While Henry is now on the outs (and will likely be missed by few in Haiti or elsewhere), the crisis in Haiti appears to be far from over. While their principal demand has been met, the gangs appear in no mood to back down, refusing to accept any new government imposed from outside forces. Instead, the gangs themselves seem to be aspiring to power – in particular, their unofficial leader, Jimmy "Barbecue" Cherizier, a former police officer and leader of the gang known as G9 who has been crystal clear about his willingness to seize power violently if necessary. But Barbecue also faces competition, such as from fellow gang leader Johnson Andre (aka "Izo"), and former attempted coup leader Guy Philippe – recently returned to Haiti after serving a sentence in the US for taking bribes from drug traffickers, and making no illusions about his own desires to take power.

As the violence in Haiti continues with an associated and worsening humanitarian crisis, the United States and other foreign powers have debated and struggled to put together troops and police for some kind of intervention force and stabilization mission for months, with few governments seeming particularly eager to step into the breech after the past few interventions. Among those that are willing, such as Kenya, they've experienced various domestic roadblocks.. All while the and number of dead and displaced continue to rise amid worsening conditions (with some migrants to the neighboring Dominican Republic being forced back across the border into Haiti). However, in recent years Haitians have been understandably apprehensive if not outright hostile to the idea of yet another foreign military adventure in their country that will likely not solve any long term problems and potentially make them even worse yet again. Even as the gangs wage war in Haiti, its important to remember that there are regular people who are also protesting their frustration with their prior, ineffective, corrupt governments, in addition to foreign interference. The right path forward for Haiti remains unclear, all while foreign governments, the gangs, and other aspirants to power seem set on a collision course if nothing changes. Given conditions seem unlikely to change for the better at this moment in time, we should be prepared for things to get much worse in Haiti – and potentially the Caribbean as a whole – in the near future. (Note: I'm dumb and didn't realize how stringent Tumblr's character limits are now, so find part two here, with the rest of my thoughts and a conclusion) Photo credit: @operation1027 (on Twitter)

#War Takes #War Takes essay #war #international relations #foreign policy #defense #security #Myanmar #Sudan #Ethiopia #Haiti #leftism #leftist #socialism #democratic socialism #Burma #War Takes Firewatch

35 notes · View notes