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mariacallous · 2 months

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On January 9, 2024, Swedish defense chief Gen. Micael Byden stood on a stage in Salen, Sweden, and gave a presentation intended to shock. Projecting a series of grisly images from the front lines of the Ukraine War, overlaid on a backdrop of snowy Swedish field, he asked: “Do you think this could be Sweden?”

Until February 2022, these questions would be unimaginable for a country that has maintained a careful 75-year strategy of peaceful nonalignment toward NATO. In a 2012 speech, the supreme commander of Sweden’s military at the time, Sverker Goranson, said that, in the event of an attack, “Sweden can survive for a week.” But at this recent Society and Defense Conference in Salen, leaders made it clear that the era of de-emphasizing defense was over. There, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson urged his citizens to prepare to defend themselves “with weapons in hand and our lives on the line.”

For Russia’s Scandinavian neighbors, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine disrupted a cool calculus of neutrality. Last year, Finland became NATO’s newest member, with Sweden likely soon to follow, pending approval from Hungary. These new northern alliances are shifting the geopolitical power balance, with Arctic NATO nations soon outnumbering Russia seven to one. And, just as the melting Arctic ice opens new resources and routes for global economic competition, it also exposes new defensive vulnerabilities.

Today, as Ukraine and its NATO allies push Russia into a corner, global leaders—together with Scandinavians themselves—are increasingly turning a troubled gaze north. They’re asking: How likely is escalation in colder climes?

“The increasing competition and militarization in the Arctic region … is worrying,” NATO military committee chair Adm. Rob Bauer said in an October 2023 speech at the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik, Iceland. “We must be prepared for military conflicts arising in the Arctic.”

“Low tensions in the High North”: so have global leaders and analysts referred to a post-Cold War period of relative polar stability. For the past several decades, bilateral and international agreements between Russia and other Arctic states have emphasized shared northern security as well as scientific and safety interests. But after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, these arrangements quickly fell apart. In March 2022, the Arctic Council, a forum between the eight Arctic states, suspended talks. (In May 2023, it cautiously resumed but has yet to make Russia’s involvement clear.) In September 2023, Russia left the smaller Barents Euro-Arctic Council with Norway, Finland, and Sweden—saying the Scandinavian states had “paralyzed” cooperation. In February 2023, Russia amended its Arctic policy, emphasizing new alliances with other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations, particularly China. That month, it also suspended participation in New START, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia.

“There’s this post-Cold War political idea of ‘Arctic exceptionalism,’ that the north is excepted from developments in global politics,” said Rasmus Bertelsen, the Barents chair in politics at the Arctic University in Tromso. “The problem is, it’s never been valid.”

Look a little closer at the past decades, Bertelsen said, and you’ll see a Russian Arctic strategy that closely follows its global agenda. In 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech at the Munich Security Conference firmly rejected a U.S.-led, post-Cold War global order of stability. That same year, Russia launched its first cyberattack on Estonia and made a bold Arctic territorial claim by planting a Russian flag in the seabed below the North Pole. Putin has also concentrated militarization around the High North. Since 2014, the year Russia annexed Crimea, Russia has steadily grown a northern fleet of nuclear submarines, surface ships, missile facilities, air fleets, and radar stations. Today, Russia’s largest military base is on the Kola Peninsula, which borders Norway and Finland, where it is also testing new hypersonic missiles and a nuclear torpedo drone. Though about 80 percent of Russia’s northern land forces were deployed to Ukraine, its air and sea forces remain intact.

“Earlier, Russia had an interest in seeming like a constructive partner, including in the Arctic,” said Andreas Osthagen, a senior fellow at the Arctic Institute in Oslo, Norway. “Just like in the rest of the world, that has deteriorated.”

Russia’s full-scale invasion came as a wake-up call to Scandinavian neighbors that have, for decades, resisted militaristic alliances. Suddenly, neutrality began to look a lot more like vulnerability. Finland had an especially stunning reversal: As recently as December 2021, 51 percent of Finns opposed joining NATO. Today, 78 percent support the membership. With this alliance comes the promise of U.S. military might. In 2023, Finland and Sweden both signed bilateral military agreements with the United States, permitting American personnel and weapons at dozens of bases, including nine in the Arctic. Norway, an active NATO member since its formation, already has several bases that permit U.S. personnel and weapons. Still, since the Cold War, Norway has followed a “reassurance” policy that limits NATO and its allies’ presence past the 28th longitudinal zone, close to Russia. Now, it’s unclear whether that policy will hold.

Since 2009, the Nordic Defense Cooperation has aligned Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Iceland on national military policy. In 2022, Norway, Finland and Sweden announced an agreement to strengthen the alliance with a focus on the high North. Today, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland are in ongoing talks about formally sharing their air forces. In March 2024, Norway will lead an expanded “Nordic response” exercise for these nations to test their coordinated defense plans. Michael Paul, a senior fellow in security policy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said that history will reveal this new Nordic alliance as “one of Putin’s greatest mistakes.”

“If the war in Ukraine has achieved anything, it’s to align the Nordics on security,” Paul said. “You want to divide your enemies, not unite them against you.”

Ferguson sees the U.S. Swedish and Finnish military bases as mutually beneficial: Where the U.S. has resources, it often lacks technical expertise in extreme conditions. These smaller nations, she said, have a lot to teach the United States military. And their alliance with NATO is, she said, a “game-changer.”

“We now have seven out of eight Arctic nations geopolitically aligned with highly capable militaries,” Ferguson said. “I don’t know if there is such a concentration of alignment and capabilities between nations anywhere else in the world.”

Still, Ferguson emphasized that this is all in the name of deterrence. And experts agree that a full-scale northern conflict is unlikely. Paradoxically, Paul noted, Russia’s sheer military capacity and economic resources that increase Arctic tensions also deter real escalation. In the north, Russia simply has too much to lose: The immense territorial mass and extensive fossil fuel resources both stand as major claims to its identity as a global superpower. And unlike the cases of Ukraine and Crimea, Putin has never publicly imagined reclaiming Finland, which declared independence from Russia in 1917, nor has he spoken about accessing the Atlantic through Norway. Paul said that the Kremlin has an interest in maintaining a “low level of tension” in the north.

For now, that has meant hybrid warfare: “gray zone” tactics that are harder to trace or attribute. For instance, in November 2023, after a massive surge of asylum-seekers prompted Finland to become the first neighbor to close its border to Russia, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo called the move “instrumentalized immigration”; that is, retaliation for joining NATO. (Russia denied the charge.)

At sea, potential aggression is even harder to trace. In April 2021 and January 2022, fiber-optic cables connecting the Svalbard archipelago to the Norwegian mainland was mysteriously severed. Later, vessel-tracking data revealed, in both instances, that Russian fishing boats had passed repeatedly over the cables prior to the damage. In October 2023, a Chinese container ship called the Newnew Polar Bear damaged a Baltic gas pipeline before entering Russian waters. According to the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation, a severed anchor likely belonging to the ship caused the damage, but experts still dispute whether the damage was intentional. Proving malicious intent is extremely difficult, and investigations are ongoing.

“It’s one of the major questions being asked right now: How do we defend against attacks on subsea critical infrastructure?” said Marisol Maddox, a senior Arctic analyst at the Polar Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. “There hasn’t been a single instance of serious consequences. At this point, the lesson that Russia is learning is that they can get away with it.”

Intentional or not, the effects of such infrastructure damage can be extensive and long-lasting: For example, the fiber-optic cable damaged in April 2021 wasn’t identified and repaired until November of that year. Luckily, one other subsea cable remained to keep the lights on in Svalbard. But absent that redundancy, thousands of people could have been left stranded without power for months. In the event of an explicit conflict, Maddox said, those kinds of vulnerabilities are extremely worrying.

In highly militarized zones, mistakes may carry the highest risk. To Osthagen, “miscalculation and misinterpretation” are the “greatest security risk in the North Atlantic Arctic.” In this region, Russia and NATO both conduct frequent military exercises, rehearsing mobilization of their forces and fleets. These routine rehearsals are especially necessary in colder climates, which require cold-resilient equipment and technology. (Notably, Osthagen emphasized, Russia has simulated direct attacks on its neighbors, whereas NATO has strictly simulated defensive strategies.) But these are complicated operations, often testing people and procedures for the first time. All it takes is one accidentally discharged firearm, one crossed signal, for rehearsal to open a military theater. Typically, such exercises are clearly communicated and coordinated across borders. But more recently, this communication has suffered.

“Paradoxically, after February 2022, the tension and fear of something happening has increased, whereas the potential for dialogue has disappeared,” Osthagen said. “This is the most troubling aspect of all.”

And where does this warfare, hybrid or explicit, end? In the worst case, the current war in Ukraine could conclude with a northern strike. Russia has 11 submarines capable of launching long-range nuclear weapons; eight of them reside in the Kola Peninsula. For this reason alone, the Arctic carries a particular weight for global leaders who must consider escalation to its absolute hypothetical end.

Even so, Paul emphasized that Arctic conflict of any form still remains counter to Russia’s interests and is less likely than in other parts of the world. Still, he cautioned against assuming that Putin will behave rationally. If backed into a corner, as NATO expands and Ukrainian troops advance, it is impossible to know how he will respond. But a fact remains that Arctic nations won’t easily forget: The remainder of his military might centers on the north.

“Putin made a big mistake in Ukraine,” Paul said. “He could make another in the Arctic.”

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ptseti · 3 months

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SACHS: DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS BEAT WAR DRUMS The US political spectrum has been described as two sides of the same coin. While the Democratic Party and the Republican Party may differ on issues like LGBTQ rights, women's rights and migration, they almost always see eye to eye on US foreign policy. This is partly what is driving up the country’s debt burden, explained economist Jeffrey Sachs several months ago on Democracy Now. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, US defence spending in 2022 accounted for almost 40 per cent of global military expenditures. That year, US military support for Ukraine required a $71 billion increase in expenditures, pushing the United States to spend more than the next ten countries combined, compared to surpassing the next nine countries in 2021. US military violence has been unleashed under various pretences to line the pockets of the military-industrial complex, a term used to describe the US military establishment as well as private companies that develop weaponry for US 'defence.' Meanwhile, the country’s infrastructure is crumbling, many cannot afford healthcare, and more than a half-million are homeless (a conservative estimate), to name a few challenges. Rather than acknowledging that its domestic situation is unravelling, that its wars have failed and that its debt burden has ballooned, the United States is doubling. It has a military presence all across Africa through its Africa Command (AFRICOM) while goading China. What's a failing empire to do? Let us know in the comments.

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zvaigzdelasas · 2 years

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When Kémi Séba, a leading anti-colonial figure in Francophone Africa, last attempted to travel from his native Benin to Mali in January 2020 he was prevented from boarding the plane by Malian authorities.

At the time, Mali was under the control of president Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta—a close ally to France who would not have welcomed Séba’s ability to lead large protests against the country’s former colonial ruler.

Two years later and Séba tells Quartz that he was personally invited to Mali by local authorities led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, the head of a military junta that seized power in August 2020, to give a rousing speech against neo-colonialism in the capital city of Bamako.

“The Malian authorities regard me as an ally because they know that I have reignited Pan-Africanism in Francophone African countries,” said Séba who was kicked out of Senegal in 2017 after the government called him a “threat to public order.” [...]

While the international community and the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) have denounced the military takeover in Mali, he praises the armed forces for responding to growing discontent with the former government

“The alliance between civil society and the military forces is a patriotic path forward and it will be the beginning of a new era in Africa,” he said.

“Democracy in the western sense has failed. Mali for me is proof that something can be different.” [...]

A recent poll by the [french-speaking] Friedrich Ebert foundation found that 68% of Malians are very satisfied with the coup, 27% are satisfied and only 5% do not support the military [...]

The question now is whether anti-colonial populist governments with broad support from their citizens will become a trend that spreads to other parts of Africa.

Séba believes that it is currently mostly isolated to Francophone Africa where it is slowly gaining momentum.

Even the more internationalist regional leaders like Macky Sall, Senegal’s president, have recently suggested that he wants to overhaul financial relations with the West.

The president gave a blistering speech earlier this month at a United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (Uncea) meeting in Dakar where he criticized the IMF for not allocating a fair portion of special drawing rights (SDRs) to the continent during the pandemic.

Africa has received only $33 billion of the $650 billion in emergency and unconditional funding issued by the IMF during covid-19, with much larger sums being allocated to developed economies like the US, Japan, China, and Germany.

“Explaining underdevelopment in Africa is very simple. The rules set up by international institutions have put us in a straitjacket. The rules are unfair, outdated, and need to be disputed,” he told delegates.

“It is time for Africa to speak out. The voices should not just be those of leaders but of finance ministers and others affected by a system that works against the continent.”

The growing dissatisfaction with Bretton Woods institutions adds to the feeling that the West has deliberately short-changed Africa in terms of access to vaccines.

Western drugmakers continue to block African manufacturing plants from producing life saving vaccines due to patent issues and vaccine donations to the continent have fallen well short of the mark.

This may have [sic] led to an increase in anti-Western sentiment in other regions outside Francophone west Africa.

Jeffrey Smith, founding director of Vanguard Africa, a non-profit [...], said that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has increased anti-Western sentiment in Africa.

Russian flags have been flown in rallies everywhere from Ethiopia to South Africa as many Africans believe that the West’s condemnation of the invasion is hypocritical in the context of Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan. [...]

Nicolas Cheeseman, professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham, said that populist policies are on the rise in other parts of Africa but not to the same extent as the Sahel.

“Figures such as William Ruto in Kenya and Julius Malema in South Africa are using populism as a way to try and gain power, but at the minute it seems to be more of a tool of the opposition than the government,” he said.

Still, the populist trend in west Africa could be the start of a wider movement in Africa and activists like Séba certainly hope that recent developments reverberate across the continent.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the divisive figure has established connections with Malema in South Africa to expand the movement to Southern Africa.

Last week, hundreds of protestors from Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party gathered outside the French embassy in Pretoria, holding signs that had expletives against France. .

For a country which is not linked to French colonization, this could be a warning sign that events in the Sahel may eventually morph into something much more significant in Africa.

6 Jun 22

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beardedmrbean · 1 month

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Hey zoomer Huey, oh my god ac red is going to be HELL when they finally revealed Yasuke is going to be the second playable character

https://x.com/oliverjia1014/status/1768104847071719880?s=46

My thing with Yasuke for the upcoming game that they acknowledge he a OUTSIDER. Hell I did some dna research in Southeast Asia and it stated many communities are East African descent so they can say post main story Yasuke settled down and retired to one of those places

Also I saw people said Japan achieved more than those 54 countries….sigh….

People forget that modern Japan is HEAVILY westernized due to American military there (mainly because we don’t want more batshit crazy soldiers like imperial Japanese ones)

And we took care of most of military might because we all know how fucked Japan would be after China got it shit together right?

So Japan was able to rebuilt faster than most countries

We just didn’t pull a British Raj and let Japan keep most of their culture. Okay okay it more complicated

Not to mention our knowledge of japan is due to american occupation there thus the culture exchange for 80 years.

Like my Yoruba thing, yes I want to show more Africans stories. But I swallow the hard pill that I can set the foundation for more better and accurate African stories. But will die before seeing African warriors be treated the same way as Samurai warriors

Also the inferiority complex, look yes African cultures are still shit on

But just grow the fuck up and stop acting like Twitter discourse is everything

I mean I recently bought the Ramayana after finding a mutual who like a naughty character Twitter see as the devil.

Just saying there are good African AND African Americans stories we can tell.

Actually have fleshing out the chimera republic in mind. I think I started to realize an issues with the knights and samurai shit. Wanna read in an another anon?

Did a reverse search on the image here, nice to see most everyone is on the same page, which is Yasuke was real and the only black samurai that's known

Fellow from Japan suggested checking this site if you're looking for dark skinned people, not sure if he means African or not, Spain and Portugal did lots of trading might have had some African slaves or something like that with them. I dunno.

I can believe the East African bit, these are the "bad guys" from 300 from India to Ethiopia and they were big on moving people from one place to another in order to keep them from creating a large enough community to pose a threat.

They've become pretty westernized over there in Japan ya, not all the way the commercial with the company apologizing for raising the price of a ice cream after like 25 years is not a western thing at all, we'd say fuck you and then increase it again.

Arizona Ice Tea is a outlier there.

And we took care of most of military might because we all know how fucked Japan would be after China got it shit together right?

We took care of military for the same reason we did with Germany, don't want to have to deal with that shit again so you can have a very limited military that's geared for self defense, someone attacks we'll come running and cover you.

See if you can find the Shaka Zulu series they made, man literally changed warfare in that part of Africa.

Big issue with sub Saharan Africa is I don't think there was any groups that could field a 10,000 man army, not many at least, not till after islam showed up and gave a unifying identity to different groups. This is just from what I know I may be wrong though.

Just saying there are good African AND African Americans stories we can tell. Actually have fleshing out the chimera republic in mind. I think I started to realize an issues with the knights and samurai shit. Wanna read in an another anon?

True dat, and ya that could be a fun read feel free.

#zoomer huey anon

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crystalis · 8 days

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What the present moment reveals, once again, is that Western aggression during the "Cold War" was never about [just] destroying socialism, as such. It was and is about destroying socialism but also any national liberation movement that loosens their control over the means of production in the periphery. Why? Because economic sovereignty in the periphery threatens capital accumulation in the core.

This remains the primary objective of Western aggression today. And it is the single greatest source of violence, war and instability in the world system.

The reason Western powers went after socialist movements across the global South during the "Cold War" (Cuba, China, the incineration of Vietnam and North Korea, etc) was because they knew socialism would enable the South to regain control over their own productive capacities - their labour and resources and factories - and organize them around local needs and national development.

When this happens - when people in the global South start producing and consuming for themselves - it means that those resources are no longer cheaply available to service consumption and accumulation in the core, thus disrupting the imperial arrangement on which Western capitalism has always relied (cheap labour, cheap resources, control over productive capacities, markets on tap). Remember, roughly 50% of all material consumption in the core is net-appropriated from the global South. This is what they are trying to defend.

But it wasn't only socialist governments that pursued economic sovereignty. After political decolonization, a wide range of movements and states across the South also sought economic liberation and sovereign industrial development. And Western powers attacked them with equal brutality (Indonesia, Brazil, Guatemala, the DRC...).

This is the key reason that Western powers supported the apartheid regime in South Africa, and it is why they support the Israeli regime today... as Western settler-colonial outposts that can be used to attack and destabilize regional movements seeking socialism or any form of real economic sovereignty, whether in Angola or Mozambique or Zimbabwe or any of the Arab nationalist or socialist movements in North Africa and the Middle East.

Iran has always been central to this story. Western states orchestrated a coup against the extremely popular prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. He was a left-leaning nationalist, not a socialist. But he wanted Iran to have control over its own resources (notably, oil), and for the US and Britain this was unacceptable. Mossadegh was replaced by a brutal Western-backed dictatorship. The revolution that finally overthrew the dictatorship in 1979 - and constituted the current government - wasn't even left-leaning, much less socialist. But they want national economic self-determination and that is sin enough. They are a target for the exact same reasons that Iraq and Libya were targets.

The same goes for China. China's path toward sovereign industrialization - whether socialist or not - means that it is no longer an easy source of cheap labour for Western capital. And as the supply price increases so too does the sabre-rattling from Western states and media.

So this is the situation we are in. The Western ruling classes are backing obscene violence and plausible genocide in Gaza, against overwhelming international condemnation, because they must shore up their regional outpost at virtually any cost. The vast majority of the world supports Palestinian liberation, but Palestinian liberation would constrain Israeli power and open the way to regional liberation movements, and this is strongly antithetical to the interests of Western capital. And now they are provoking war with Iran, risking regional conflagration, while at the same time encircling China with military bases, ramping up sanctions on Cuba, trying to contain progressive governments in Latin America, threatening invasion of the Sahel states...

It is intolerable and it cannot continue. The violence they perpetrate, the instability, the constant wars against a long historical procession of peoples and movements in the global South who yearn for freedom and self-determination... the whole world is dragged into this horrifying nightmare. They are willing to inflict enormous suffering and misery on hundreds of millions of people in order to preserve existing dynamics of capital accumulation. We will not have peace until this arrangement is overcome and post-capitalist transformations are achieved.

@/jasonhickel · Apr 16, 2024

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religion-is-a-mental-illness · 9 months

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The British Crusade Against Slavery | Sargon of Akkad

What really bothers me is Frankie Boyle's attempt to make British people feel ashamed of Britain's involvement in the slave trade. That really gets my goat because Britain's involvement in the slave trade is one of the most proud accomplishments of British history. And i know what you're thinking: oh my, goodness slavery is bad. And that's correct. Which is why the British ended it. For everyone.

[..] The Portuguese did take a few Africans back to Europe, but they didn't need to set up operations, because they discovered that there were already thriving slave trades in Africa. And so they bought slaves from African rulers and traders. The vast majority of slaves taken out of Africa were sold by African rulers, traders and military aristocracy who grew wealthy from the business. Most slaves were acquired through wars or by kidnapping. And before you start thinking that this is excessively barbaric, this was the standard for almost every civilized society all across the world.

[..] The point is that slavery was ubiquitous. No matter where on Earth you traveled, you found slaves. In Europe, in China, in the Middle East, in the New World, in India, in Scandinavia, in Africa. Slavery was as common an institution as animal husbandry.

[..] The West Africa Squadron was a detachment of the Royal Navy that was given the task of blockading Africa, the continent, to make sure that slave traders were not taking slaves to the Americas. Needless to say, in 1807 there was only a token force performing this operation, comprising of two ships. This number was increased to five ships until the war of 1812 with the United States, but after 1815 with Britain victorious in Europe and supreme at sea, the Royal Navy turned its attention back to the challenge. The institution of slavery was formally abolished in the British Empire in 1833 and by the 1850s, around 25 vessels and 2 000 officers and men were on the station, supported by nearly a thousand "kroomen," experienced fishermen recruited as sailors from what is now the coast of modern Liberia.

[..] All of this was done against the vested financial interests of hundreds of thousands of people. Entire nations were against the idea of abolishing slavery and the slave trade. The very notion was alien to the human existence until Britain made it happen. In the 19th century if you saw a ship bearing down on you flying this flag and you were a slave trader, you knew that this flag stood for liberty. This was the flag of a nation that defied human convention for a point of principle, and spent its blood sweat, tears and treasure to enforce it on the world. This is the flag of the nation that accepted the absolute moral truth that slavery is wrong. No matter what riches can be amassed, no matter what power can be gained, no matter the cost, slavery had to be abolished. That was the British crusade. When Britain held the reigns of world power, that is what she did with it.

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#Sargon of Akkad #transatlantic slave trade #West Africa Squadron #Blockade of Africa #history #slavery #history of slavery #British crusade #religion is a mental illness

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allthebrazilianpolitics · 1 year

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Lula in China: The End of Brazil’s Flirtation With the Quad Plus

The new Lula administration has brought Brazil’s China policy back in line with its traditional approach, after the anti-China rhetoric of Jair Bolsonaro.

In 2018, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the idea of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), formed by the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, asserting that it would “dissipate like sea foam.” The Quad, created to facilitate the convergence of the four countries in terms of policies toward the Indo-Pacific, not only proved to be resilient over time but also intensified its activities in the region under both former U.S. President Donald Trump (2017-2021) and current President Joe Biden. During this period, the consultation between the group members went from being a biannual foreign ministerial dialogue to head of government-level consultations.

Analysts introduced the term Quad Plus in 2020 to describe a minilateral dialogue of states that extends the Quad beyond the four lynchpin democracies. However, while the term “Quad Plus” is not officially endorsed by Washington, Canberra, New Delhi, and Tokyo, it has become shorthand for non-Quad members that are closely cooperating with the group. That list includes other important U.S. partners such as Brazil, South Korea, Vietnam, Israel, New Zealand, and France. The idea originated during the uncertainty and global tensions at the time of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The first concretization of the Quad Plus framework took place on March 20, 2020, when then-U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun proposed a Quad meeting including Vietnam, New Zealand, and South Korea, which aimed to enable an exchange of assessments of the national pandemic situation of participant nations and align their responses to contain its spread. Later, a foreign ministers-level meeting in May 2020 with the participation of Israel, South Korea, and Brazil consolidated the Quad Plus with a global outlook. The extended initiative also materialized for the first time in the security realm in April 2021, when France led the La Pérouse Naval Exercise in the Bay of Bengal.

The unstated motivation of the Quad is the shared concern among the four original members about the rise of China’s international political and economic clout and the desire to check Beijing’s increasing military activities in the South and East China Seas. At the time, Brazil seemed to share such wariness in relation to Beijing since it was under the Jair Bolsonaro administration (2019-2022). The far-right former Brazilian Army captain aligned the country’s foreign policy to Washington’s interests. Bolsonaro also embraced fierce anti-Chinese rhetoric due to his distaste for Communism and China’s growing investments in sensitive Brazilian sectors like agriculture, meatpacking, and mining. Bolsonaro insinuated that China had engineered the COVID-19 virus and purposefully spread it worldwide to benefit from the pandemic economically.

Despite contentious relations with the East Asian power, Brasília failed to concretize a rapprochement with the Quad. It happened for three main reasons. First, Brazil is clueless about the Indo-Pacific. It lacks a full-fledged long-term strategy toward the region and has failed to include the very term “Indo-Pacific” in its official vocabulary. Brazil’s geographical position, facing the South Atlantic Ocean, and its limited capacities of naval power projection beyond marginal seas make it unlikely that Brasília will be able to ensure the freedom of navigation in a region half a world away. For example, among the last seven IBSAMAR Naval Exercises, carried out with India and South Africa, Brazil deployed an offshore patrol vessel to Goa only once.

#brazil #politics #brazilian politics #foreign policy #mod nise da silveira #image description in alt

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usafphantom2 · 2 years

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After the United Kingdom, Australia begins investigation into former RAAF pilots who would be training Chinese forces

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 10/20/22 - 12:00 in Military

The Australian government has launched an investigation into allegations that former Australian Defense Forces pilots may have been the target of Chinese recruitment efforts that allegedly recruited about 30 former UK military pilots to instruct Chinese military pilots in air combat tactics.

The Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, Richard Myles, said he would be "deeply shocked and disturbed to learn that there were employees who were being attracted by a paycheck from a foreign state above serving his own country". Myles advised the Department of Defense to investigate the allegations and provide him with “clear advice” on the matter.

Myles' statement came shortly after the UK Ministry of Defense announced that UK military intelligence is "hiring" former UK military pilots who now train the Chinese military to warn them about the risks of being prosecuted ?? under the Official Secrets Law.

In a statement released on Tuesday, the Ministry said that the warnings are one of several “immediate measures” that are being taken to stop and penalize former military pilots who plan or have moved to China to train Chinese military crews, adding that their actions “clearly corrode the United Kingdom’s defense advantage”.

Other measures being taken include the amendment of the National Security Act to "capture" a series of activities carried out by former UK military pilots who now train the Chinese military, adding new possible routes to prosecute those involved. In addition, the Ministry is now conducting a review of the use of confidentiality agreements, with the aim of "providing additional contractual levers to prevent individuals from violating security".

The Ministry's statements follow comments from authorities that it is believed that about 30 pilots have accepted jobs training Chinese military pilots. It is believed that most of them are former tactical aircraft pilots or "fastjets" with some helicopter pilots, with an employee who spoke to the BBC saying that the recruits have experience in Typhoon, Jaguar, Harrier and Tornado. Recruitment efforts are targeted at pilots from all UK services, with a source who spoke to Sky News claiming that Chinese recruiters tried to recruit former pilots trained in the F-35.

According to the officers, some of the pilots recruited are over 50 years old, having retired from the armed forces "a few years ago". Pilots are being recruited with "profit packages" estimated at up to $227,000 to provide the Chinese military with information about Western air combat tactics, allowing Chinese pilots to better understand the capabilities of potential opposing aircraft and their pilots.

Authorities stated that recruitment efforts are being made through an intermediary company in South Africa, with pilots from other nations also targeted. Although initially treated on a case-by-case basis, recruitment activity is said to have increased after the end of large-scale blockades in China and the resumption of air travel there, requiring the warning.

Ministry spokesmen previously contacted by the BBC and Sky News stated that current laws have no means of prohibiting or punishing pilots who went to work for China. As a result, the Ministry is exploring the amendments mentioned to the National Security Bill to serve as a stronger deterrent for potentially interested parties.

Tags: Military AviationPLAAF - Chinese Air ForceRAAF - Royal Australian Air Force/Royal Australian Air Force

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Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. It has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. Uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.

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bopinion · 1 year

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2023 / 16

Aperçu of the Week:

"With so many things coming back in style, I can't wait until morals, respect and intelligence become a trend again."

(Denzel Washington, US-American actor)

Bad News of the Week:

In recent days, the spotlight has shifted to a country that should have done so sooner because of its problems: Sudan. For 30 years, the autocrat Umar al-Bashir, who came to power in a military coup in 1989, led (not to say suppressed) Sudan with a hard hand, it is an unfortunately classic state story in Africa. Since South Sudan's independence in 2011 at the latest, the country, wracked by regional separatist movements, has no longer been a functioning state. After al-Bashir was deposed - by a military coup, of course - the military leadership and the opposition agreed on a transitional government that was supposed to democratize the country and prepare it for free elections. What didn't happen.

Now two factions of the military are fighting each other for power: the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) under de facto head of state General Abdel Fattah Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under his former deputy General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, better known as Hemeti. Both lead the so-called Sovereign Council, which is effectively a military junta. Fighting began when RSF troops took control of the Soba military base south of the main city of Khartoum a week ago. Since then, there has been fighting over strategic locations such as the international airport and the headquarters of state television, and there have been constant explosions and confrontations throughout the city, which have reportedly already claimed the lives of some 500 civilians.

The population is largely holed up in their homes. Without supplies of food or medicine, and often with outages of electricity and water, the suffering of the people is unimaginable. Foreign countries call for a ceasefire and evacuate their diplomatic personnel and some of their nationals. That's it. There is no real leverage, and military intervention is unlikely, given the increasing withdrawal from comparable conflict areas in recent years, such as Mali. Is there any reason for hope? I fear not.

In the future, Sudan will vegetate as a failed state just like Libya or Iraq. Only this time, probably without an ultimately useless intervention by the West. It will be interesting to see whether China, which has been present in the south since the 1970s and is a kind of godfather to South Sudan, will intervene again. This is supported by the fact that China is increasingly buying influence on the African continent if, for example, there are rich mineral resources, as in this case. The fact that they have never intervened militarily, which would probably be indispensable in this case, speaks against it. In any case, it will end badly for the population. Whether with or without China, there will be no human rights, prosperity, democracy, welfare state, domestic peace, education for all, and so on.

Good News of the Week:

What a lot of ranting there is about government and its reluctance to take effective action against, or at least mitigate, the effects of climate change. The four biggest areas where change is needed are industry, energy, transportation and construction/housing. Industry is already on a solid path and reached the set targets - albeit with the help of pandemic-related production reductions - in 2022. In energy (generation), at least something is happening, although too little. There is hardly anything to be seen in the area of transportation, which is not surprising in view of the car lobby, the traditionally conservative ministry and various taboo topics such as a speed limit.

Let's move on to construction and housing. The first part is partly industrial, for example the production of building materials, and partly private, i.e. dependent on the owners - for example the decision to install thermal windows. In addition to private energy consumption, which can also be covered (in part) by photovoltaic systems on the roof, the dominant issue is heating. The majority of German heating systems are still powered by oil or gas. Which, in addition to the dependencies for which we are now all paying bitterly, is above all extremely harmful to the environment. As is always the case when a fossil fuel is burned.

So a paradigm shift is needed here. For example, by replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump. This is currently regarded as the ideal solution because, apart from the operating electricity, which can come from renewable energy sources, it only needs to convert thermal energy. A bit like a refrigerator, but in the opposite direction. The problem is that high peak temperatures are not reached, usually at 40 degrees Celsius is the end. In well-insulated houses that have large radiating surfaces such as underfloor heating, this is sufficient. In poorly insulated houses, where a classic radiator is usually also placed on a thinner wall of all places under an old window, this is often not enough.

Last week, an amendment to the Building Energy Act was now presented by the green-led Ministry of Economics and approved by the cabinet. The key point: as early as next year, all newly installed heating systems must be powered by at least 65 percent renewable energy. This effectively means the death of all oil and gas heating systems, with the latter having a shaky future with hydrogen - which, however, is not yet available at the moment and will be very expensive later on. This leaves electric heating. And the mentioned heat pump, which is more expensive than, say, a gas boiler, combined with cost-intensive building renovations required because of the radiation surfaces and insulation.

This is hitting the population at precisely the time when new construction financing and, above all, rental cost levels are going through the roof anyway. Particularly in areas that are in demand and characterized by an influx of people, such as here in the Munich area, housing is slowly becoming a luxury that often already eats up more than half of the income. For this reason, the state offers subsidies of between 30 and 50 percent for the replacement of fossil-fuelled heating systems. Regardless of whether this is voluntary and proactive or forced because the old system is simply no longer repairable or maintainable. There are also subsidies or at least low-interest loans with repayment subsidies for the accompanying renovation.

The good thing about this is not only that climate-friendly measures and only climate-friendly measures are finally being subsidized. When it comes to mobility, for example, driving a car is still treated in exactly the same way as taking the train. The ambitious timetable is also good. As I said, the law will take effect as early as next year and is not, as is so often the case, just some lax target agreement by the end of the decade. Yes, this will be problematic, as there are likely to be bottlenecks in both heat pump manufacturing and their professional installation. But that doesn't have to matter. Otherwise, we'll end up in an infinite loop like with electromobility: vehicle sales stall because there's a lack of charging capacity. And these are not being created because demand is too low, since not enough e-cars are being bought. Those who only invoke the dilemma of a Catch 22 situation will never get off the ground.

Personal happy moment of the week:

At work, I was able to successfully coordinate that I will have a week off in about two months. After that never worked out last time, because I stayed at home - too close to the home office - this time we will go on a trip. Namely to the "The sea of stone" in the Austrian Alps. Where there is no digital accessibility at our mountain inn. Smart move. Actually, I could have thought of that earlier.

I couldn't care less...

...that Michael Kretschmer from Saxony is now the first German prime minister to call for a stop to the immigration of refugees. Even for former local staff from Afghanistan. Not everyone has yet understood that our society needs immigration to maintain its prosperity. Especially against the backdrop of aging and a shortage of employees, especially in less demanding fields of activity. The real problem, after all, is the lack of integration and qualification. Both are not only a debt to be collected, but also a debt to be brought.

As I write this...

...Ramadan is coming to an end. For the first time this year I have seen it with different eyes. Thanks to my new work colleague Tarek. A Syrian. And Muslim. That reminds me that I have a Koran - fortunately in an annotated version for amateurs - on my bookshelf. Which I will (hopefully soon) read. Because just like the Bible, it is far more than just a religious pamphlet. It defines the cultural basis of whole nations. And this foundation should be known. And respected. Especially to enable one to evaluate dubious spin-offs by oneself.

Post Scriptum

Last week, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel received a medal. The "Grand Cross in Special Execution." As the third bearer after her predecessors in office Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl. Of course, there was not only praise in this context, but also criticism. Both justified. In her 16 years in office, she "outlasted" 13 party leaders of the Social Democrats, the primary political competitor of her conservative party, the CDU.

So I'll take the liberty of quoting the current incumbent, Saskia Esken: "Her opponents - from her own ranks as well as from outside - cut their teeth on her integrity and her fine sense of humor." Merkel's "diplomatic skills and empathic wisdom, with which she repeatedly succeeded in forging viable coalitions and compromises on both the national and international stage," she said, deserved special praise. Because: "Especially in our troubled and crisis-ridden times, an almost invaluable skill." Merkel, she said, had therefore "navigated Germany with a sense of proportion through the many crises of her time in office."

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dreaminginthedeepsouth · 1 year

Photo

Jack Ohman, Sacramento Bee :: [h/t Scott Horton]

* * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

February 13, 2023

Heather Cox Richardson

Today, meetings began to take place before the Munich Security Conference begins in Berlin, Germany, on February 17. This conference is the world’s leading forum for talking about international security policy. Begun in 1963, it was designed to be an independent venue for experts and policymakers to discuss the most pressing security issues around the globe.

Vice President Kamala Harris will attend the conference from February 16 to 18 and is expected to talk about the continuing support of the United States for Ukraine. The anniversary of Russia’s 2022 assault on Ukraine is February 24, and today NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Russians have already begun their threatened major new offensive.

Indeed, Ukraine is at the heart of the conference this year. The Munich Security Report 2023, issued recently as a blueprint for the conference, begins by identifying Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as “a watershed moment.”

“Debates about different visions for the future international order are often abstract and theoretical,” the report begins, but “[b]y invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the clash of competing visions a brutal and deathly reality.”

The report goes on to identify a growing conflict around the globe between intensifying authoritarian regimes and a liberal, rules-based international order. It calls for shoring up that liberal order and for strengthening it by addressing the legitimate claims of countries and regions that have been excluded from that order or have even been victims of it. That many governments in Africa, Latin America, and Asia have refused to speak up against Russian aggression shows that there is deep dissatisfaction there with existing international patterns, and that dissatisfaction threatens the survival of democracy. The people of all countries must have a say in how the global future plays out.

The report notes that Russia’s “brutal and unprovoked invasion of a sovereign state” is “an attack against the foundational principles of the post–World War II order,” with “an authoritarian power” setting out “to eliminate a democracy.” But that’s not the only sign that autocracies are rising. China’s quiet support for Russia, its attempt to assert its own sphere of influence in East Asia through military shows of force, and its wide-ranging efforts “to promote an autocratic alternative to the liberal, rules-based international order” show the broad challenge of autocratic rule. “[T]he main fault line in global politics today,” the report suggests, is “that between democracies and dictators.”

Many world leaders believe that the next ten years will lay down the blueprint for the future of the international order, the report says, and it credits Ukraine and the “extraordinary resilience and determination of the Ukrainian people” with instilling “a new sense of purpose into democratic countries.” The report encourages democracies to use this momentum to re-envision the liberal, rules-based order to include countries that previously were excluded from the rulemaking. A new order “that better delivers on its promises” and “truly benefits everyone equally” has the potential to increase the coalition of those resisting autocracy. “If the revisionist moment we are currently experiencing spurs the renewal of this liberal, rules-based order,” it suggests, “President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine will have played a big part in this achievement.”

The conference organizers did not invite Russian government officials to participate in this year’s meeting, saying, "We do not want to offer a stage for those who have stamped over international law." But they did invite more leaders from emerging economies, vowing to get past the idea of an event where Europeans and Americans just talked to each other.

In a sign that many relationships are now in flux, the Chinese foreign ministry said today that China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, will go to the conference and will also visit France, Italy, Hungary, and Russia. China has been embarrassed recently by the exposure of what seems to have been an extensive spying program run by the Chinese military that included countries on five continents.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the attention the Republican-controlled House Oversight Committee has been paying to what committee chair James Comer (R-KY) says on his website has been the Biden family’s “pattern of peddling access to the highest levels of government to enrich themselves, often to the detriment of U.S. interests,” has resurrected questions about the connections of the Trump family and Saudi leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Popularly known as MBS, the Saudi leader in 2021 transferred $2 billion to a private equity firm that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner created the day after he left the White House.

In an op-ed today in Time magazine, a former associate of Trump ally Rudy Giuliani, Lev Parnas, who had been part of the attempt to smear Hunter Biden in Ukraine, said that his “real job was to help undermine and destabilize the Ukrainian government.” Parnas was convicted of fraud, making false statements, and illegally funneling foreign money to the Trump campaign.

“I eventually realized,” he said, “that not only was I enabling Trump’s dirty tricks in the 2020 election, I was also risking that Ukraine would be essentially unarmed when Putin invaded.”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

#Heather Cox Richardson #Letters From An American #American Foreign Policy #War in Ukraine #Russian hack #Europe #NATO #Munich Security Conference #Corrupt GOP

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mariacallous · 22 days

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The March 22 terrorist attack targeting concertgoers in Moscow, which was later claimed by the Islamic State, was an eerily familiar shock for Russians. In 2002, approximately a year after 9/11, Islamist terrorists claiming allegiance to a separatist movement in Chechnya besieged the crowded Dubrovka Theater in Moscow. More than 130 people were killed in the operation to clear the theater.

Last month’s attack, which killed at least 144 people, opened multiple geopolitical fissures. The Kremlin, having caught—and tortured—at least a few of the suspected perpetrators, claimed that the terrorists were looking to head toward Ukraine, where Russia is embroiled in its own endless war. Online, the story took a life of its own as conspiracy theories overwhelmed facts.

As attention shifted eastward toward the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISK), the group’s branch based in Afghanistan, contrarian views, mostly in Russian media but amplified on social media platforms, of this being a false-flag operation designed by the West simultaneously took off.

In between such distractions, the victor was the Islamic State. The group’s spokesperson, known by his nom de guerre Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari, released a 41-minute audio message a few days after the Moscow attack. Curiously, the message, titled “By God, this religion [Islam] will prevail,” mentioned Russia only in passing. It however congratulated Islamic State ecosystems and wilayas (Arabic for provinces), or offshoots, on a successful 10 years of the caliphate.

The message takes the listener on a world tour of sorts, highlighting the group’s presence across regions from Africa to Southeast Asia, challenging the notion that it is a spent force. Ansari also congratulated the group’s fighters for their campaigns against the Chinese, Russians, Sikhs, and Hindus. It also chastised the very idea of democracy—a long-standing ideological position for most jihadi groups.

Only a few hours prior to this, ISK had released a separate 18-minute propaganda video in Pashto targeting the Afghan Taliban’s outreach with India. This is particularly noteworthy after India facilitated the evacuation of Sikhs and Hindus from the country, specifically after ISK claimed an attack against a Sikh temple in Kabul in 2022. Islamic State propaganda has also long stoked communal divisions in India to instigate Muslims against the state.

The video took the format of a first-person narrative, discussing how the Taliban regime was working with the Indian state, which ISK views as an anti-Muslim institution. This was not the first time either the Islamic State or ISK had targeted India in its propaganda, but interestingly, the latter’s primary aim here was the Taliban’s behavior and not necessarily India, its democracy, or its perceived Hindu-nationalist political bent by itself.

The chaotic U.S. exit from Afghanistan and subsequent return to power of the Taliban in 2021 was a watershed moment. But the negotiated exit was not a difficult decision for the U.S. government, which was clear in its vision on what it wanted out of leaving, as Washington looked to pivot toward new areas of strategic competition in Asia.

The challenge fell to powers within the region, which were left to deal with an extremist movement in control of a critical neighboring state. For more than 20 years, Afghanistan’s neighbors, including China and Russia, benefited from the expansive U.S. and NATO military umbrella. This allowed them to pursue their own strategic interests such as developing influence within Afghanistan’s ethnic divisions and the power brokers representing these groups without any significant military commitment. On Aug. 30, 2021, then-Maj. Gen. Christopher T. Donahue was the last U.S. soldier to leave the country. Afghanistan was now an Asian problem.

But Russia, China, and Iran—the three primary adversaries of the United States, and by association Western geopolitical constructs—were in fact happy. After two decades, there were no massive U.S. military deployments on Iran’s eastern border at a time when its relations with Washington were at their worst. Tehran’s own history with Afghanistan, and specifically the Taliban, is confrontational.

Throughout the 1990s, the Iranians supported anti-Taliban groups, particularly rebel leaders such as Ahmad Shah Massoud and the Northern Alliance. Tehran was not alone, as others, including India, Russia, and Tajikistan among others, supported these groups against the Taliban and its sponsors in Pakistan.

Fast forward to 2021, and Iran decided to go the opposite way. It opened diplomatic and economic channels with the new regime in Kabul and looked to build support in exchange for a healthy level of anti-Western patronage and relative calm on the borders.

Iran’s two other closest allies in Moscow and Beijing followed suit. Iran, Russia, and China have all, in a way, recognized the Taliban as the quasi-official rulers of Afghanistan. Beijing has gone a step beyond, with Chinese President Xi Jinping officially accepting the accreditation of the new Taliban-appointed ambassador to his country.

Russia, still a little wary due to its history of fighting against and losing to the U.S.-backed mujahideen between 1979 and 1989 and more vocal in its criticism, accepted Taliban diplomats in Moscow in 2022 and is now even considering removing the Taliban from its list of banned terrorist organizations.

The stance these three states have adopted is a calculated risk; they see Taliban rule as a more palatable crisis to deal with than an expansive U.S. military presence at a time when great-power competition is once again taking hold of contemporary international relations.

Other countries, such as many of those in Central Asia, have also grudgingly taken the path of engagement with Kabul so as to try to avoid a return of regional conflict and proliferation of extremist ideologies by using the Taliban itself as a buffer as they try to keep one foot in and the other out the proverbial door.

Pakistan, long the Taliban’s patron, is already caught in a lover’s feud with its own protégés in Afghanistan as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan continues a militant campaign against Islamabad. Meanwhile, India has begun to balance between naked strategic interest and the long-term costs of the political normalization of such entities.

A trend of political victories for militant groups such as the Taliban is expanding. In the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, the latter has in many respects come out on top by gaining more legitimacy than it ever expected despite the bloodiness of its attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Hamas has managed to move its own narrative away from being a proscribed terrorist group to being viewed as a revolutionary movement for the liberation of Palestine. Its political leadership, based out of Qatar, even condemned the terrorist attack in Russia.

The spectacle of an Islamist terrorist group publicly condemning another Islamist terrorist group underscores the absurdity of this situation. Hamas leaders, such as Ismail Haniyeh, have visited Iran and Russia to drum up support. Beijing, while asking for a secession of hostilities, has yet to denounce Hamas by name for its actions. At some level, all these states are happy to engage with such militant groups if it aids in the weakening of U.S. power and hegemony.

A significant level of global cooperation against terrorism, which was achieved in the aftermath of 9/11 and during the so-called global war on terrorism, is fast eroding. For example, up until 2015, Moscow had allowed NATO military supply flights meant for Afghanistan to use its airspace. Multilateral forums such as the United Nations are now repeatedly questioned over their purpose and worth.

For groups such as the Islamic State, this is a boon. Even though most of these competing powers see the group as a security threat that requires military solutions, a lack of uniformity creates a tremendous vacuum in which such entities can thrive. And while most of Afghanistan’s neighbors today are forced to view the Taliban as the “good Taliban,” considering its fundamental aversion to the Islamic State and its ideology (due to tension between Deobandis and Salafi jihadis), these new realities will make cohesive and effective global cooperation against terrorism far less likely.

This raises a critical question: Who is going to lead the global counterterrorism push? Militarily, the kind of capacity the United States deploys against terrorist groups remains unchallenged. From the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019 to the new Islamic State caliphs being degraded to faceless, often nameless personas, the U.S.-led Operation Inherent Resolve in Syria has been effective—and it continues to this day. But the expansion of Islamic State wilayas and their own individual clout, as highlighted by Ansari, challenges these successes.

In Africa, Russia is empowering local warlords and dilettantes to take on the Islamic State while it simultaneously cements its own presence, particularly as Western powers such as the United States and France struggle to hold on to their military footing. Propping up regimes in places such as Mali and Burkina Faso by offering political stability and pushing them to fight groups such as the Islamic State is a model both Russia and China seem to gravitate toward.

As the Moscow attack revealed, an era of increased rivalry between major powers that tolerate terrorist groups that target their adversaries could ultimately spawn a resurgence of Islamist terrorism. This new geopolitical landscape, by default, will give terrorist groups more chances of political compromise through negotiations than ever before.

The popular yet often frowned-on adage of “one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter” seems to be a winning formula for those who were widely seen as critical threats yesterday but now are aspiring to be the stakeholders of tomorrow.

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jay28unit2 · 1 year

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The Victorian British Empire

The Victorian British Empire dominated the globe, though its forms of rule and influence were uneven and diverse. the traffic of people and goods between Britain and its colonies was constant, complex, and multidirectional. Britain shaped the the empire, the empire shaped Britain, and colonies shaped one another. British jobs abroad included civil and military service, missionary work, and infrastructure development. People from various imperial locations traveled to, studied in and settled in Britain. Money, too, flowed both ways— the empire was a source of profit, and emigrants sent money home to Britain— as did goods such as jute, calico cotton cloth and tea.

Dramatic expansion of the empire meant such goods came to Britain from all over the world. between 1820 and 1870 the empire grew, shifted its orientation eastward, and increased the number of nonwhite people over whom it exerted control. Much of this expansion involved violence, including the Indian Mutiny (1857-1859), the Morant Bay Rebellion (1865) in Jamaica, the Opium Wars (1839-1842, 1856-1860) in China, and the Taranaki war (1860-1861) in New Zealand. India became central to imperial status and wealth. There was significant migration to the settler colonies of Australia and New Zealand and later to Canada and South Africa. from 1870 until 1914 continued aggressive expansion (including Britain's participation in the so called Scramble for Africa) was assisted by new technologies, including railways and telegraphy. Britain took control of larger parts of Africa (including Egypt, Sudan and Kenya), which together were home to about 30 percent of the African population. the same period also saw the start of anticolonial movements that demanded freedom from British domination in India and elsewhere. These would ultimately lead to decolonisation after World war II.

#british empire #queen victoria #victorian era #victorian #morant bay rebellion #opium wars #taranaki war #britain

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zvaigzdelasas · 1 year

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The breakaway region of Somaliland has formally announced the discovery of oil deposits, the [most] ever in the history of the secessionist state, adding that exploration will be done soon by a United Kingdom-based firm which is critical in the latest development.[...] The discovery comes two weeks after the Somali federal government warned Genel Energy against oil exploration in Somaliland without authorization from Mogadishu, saying the firm was undermining its sovereignty. Somalia insisted that all mineral resources belong to the federal government. [...] The federal government of Somalia has been warning states against running affairs without following the laid down protocol. The sharing of resources has been a thorn in the flesh, with Puntland becoming the latest state to dissociate itself from the federal government until the new constitution is crafted and passed through a plebiscite.

10 Jan 23

The US Africa Command is set to rigorous training in Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, which will also incorporate various military teams from across Africa as part of security preparedness on matters of counter-terrorism in the continent. [...] The US has been spirited in maintaining close security and development cooperation with African states amid pressure from China and Russia whose military presence in Africa is increasing. Previously, the US has expressed concerns over the new approach by Beijing and Moscow in Africa. [...] Somaliland, which claimed its own independence from Somalia in 1991 and has since been fighting for international recognition, is also facing local political unrest with the opposition accusing outgoing President Muse Bihi Abdi of failing to organize presidential polls which were scheduled for in November 2022. [Somaliland is not officially recognized as an independent state by the US.] The US military has been active in Somalia for the last six months after their reinstatement moments following their unprecedented withdrawal in 2021. The soldiers have been helping the Somali National Army and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia [ATMIS] with aerial surveillance in the Al-Shabaab war.

14 Jan 23

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strangemusictriumph · 1 year

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Small Satellite Market - Forecast (2022 - 2027)

The Small Satellite Market size is analyzed to grow at a CAGR of 18.2% during the forecast 2021-2026 to reach $8.2 billion. Small satellites, also termed as Smallsats are a class of flight-proven spacecraft, designed to meet high reliability mission requirements. The increasing popularity of these mini-satellites and nano-satellites is mostly due to their lightweight, versatile and inexpensive designs, integrated with the latest software and hardware improvements, which fuel the growth of the Small Satellite Industry. Hence, the affordable solution has broadened the diverse mission-specific standards across various industry verticals, including, asset tracking, security & defense, IoT, and other space programs. Furthermore, the rise in demands for satellite imagery, low-cost high-speed broadband, along with the investments in fundamental research in CubeSats are some of the factors that drive the growth of the Small Satellite Market.

Small Satellite Market Report Coverage

The report: “Small Satellite Industry Outlook – Forecast (2021-2026)”, by IndustryARC covers an in-depth analysis of the following segments of the Small Satellite Industry.

By Offering: Hardware (Satellite Antennas, Solar Panels, Terminals, Support Equipment and Others), Software and Service. By Type: Mini-Satellite, Micro-Satellite, Nano-Satellite, Pico-Satellite, Femto-Satellite and Other. By Industry: Satellite Services, Satellite Manufacturing, Launch Vehicles and Ground Equipment. By Mission: Constellation Missions, Installation Missions and Replacement Missions. By Application: IoT/M2M, Communication, Earth Observation & Meteorology, Military & Intelligence, Scientific Research & Exploration, Weather and Other By Geography: North America (U.S, Canada, Mexico), Europe (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Russia and Others), APAC(China, Japan India, South Korea, Australia and Others), South America(Brazil, Argentina and others)and RoW (Middle east and Africa).

Key Takeaways

North America is estimated to hold the largest market share of 45.7% in 2020, owing to the eminent requirement for responsive defense forces, massive investments for breakthrough custom-designed satellites, along with rigorous commercial services demand for satellite bandwidth and network solution.

The M2M Satellite Communication technologies are majorly driven by the potential launches of cloud-based solutions is estimated to drive the market.

The promising requirements to seek reliable connectivity between the land and sea operations, along with VSAT connectivity for on-board security, drive the market growth.

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Small Satellite Market Segment Analysis – By Type

By Type, the Small Satellite Market is segmented into Mini-Satellite, Micro-Satellite, Nano-Satellite, Pico-Satellite, Femto-Satellite and Other. The Mini-Satellite is estimated to hold the highest share of 33.5% in 2020, owing to the advantageous features, including miniaturized design, travel at high speeds and remote sensing technology. In addition, affordable development solutions of Nano-Satellite technology makes them a suitable option to deliver superior solutions for communications. In February 2021, Fleet Space Technologies, an Australian nanosatellite company is set to launch its fifth nanosatellite, Centauri 3. The Centauri 3 is Fleet Space’s fifth and most advanced Commercial Nanosatellite, designed to power up a global network of connected devices deployed worldwide. Increasingly, these miniaturized spacecraft provide lucrative opportunities to most business enterprises to accelerate the growth of the Small Satellite Market.

Small Satellite Market Segment Analysis – By Application

By Application, Small Satellite Market is segmented into IoT/M2M, Communication, Earth Observation & Meteorology, Military & Intelligence, Scientific Research & Exploration, Weather and other. The communication segment held the major share of 22.2% in 2020 in the Small Satellite Market, due to the successful introduction of game-changing software for the satellite communication industry along with new business opportunities to expand remote location operation and real-time asset monitoring. In March 2020, a leading provider of next generation content connectivity solutions, NOVELSAT announced a comprehensive solution for mission critical satellite communications. The solution by Novelsat is designed to deliver highest levels of transmission security, resilience and robustness, with a comprehensive wide-ranging security suit, including, transmission security (TRANSEC), communication security (COMSEC), low probability of detection (LPD) and low probability of interception (LPI). Therefore, the growing demand for optimum levels of security and protection for business operations and other mission critical communications of across defense, security and government is estimated to drive the Small Satellite Market.

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Small Satellite Market Segment Analysis – By Geography

North America is estimated to hold the largest market share of 45.7% in 2020, along with Europe, owing to the eminent requirement for responsive defense forces, massive investments for breakthrough custom-designed satellites, along with rigorous commercial services demand for satellite bandwidth and network solution. The industry is poised to continue its rapid growth as SpaceX and others put up constellations of thousands of satellites intended to serve areas without access to broadband. In order to deliver beta testers download speeds, and robust internet coverage from space, worldwide, in May 2019, Elon Musk's SpaceX launched another 60 Starlink internet satellites into Earth’s orbit. The proposal of SpaceX's satellite internet was initiated in 2018, with the successful launch of the two Starlink test craft, known as TinTinA and TinTinB, designed to transfer huge amounts of information rapidly in comparison to fiber-optic cable. Thus, the Small Satellite industry is poised to grow as large scale space organizations are offering “space as a service” to enable business enterprises with accessibility to data, specific to business requirements. Simultaneously, the market of Small Satellite is witnessing potential growth in Asia Pacific region, owing to the digitalization across industries and vast majority of demonstrative space debris clearance service. In March 2021, Astroscale, a Japan-UK based company launched a mission aimed at removal of debris from Earth's orbit. With Elsa-d, a small satellite under the "End-of-Life Services" offerings by Astroscale, the mission was developed for a space debris removal system. Therefore, the significant intended areas to serve by the lower-cost satellite technologies and surging demand for Earth observation satellites in these regions are estimated to drive the Small Satellite Market.

Small Satellite Market Drivers

Popularity of M2M Satellite Communication

The M2M Satellite Communication technologies are majorly driven by the potential launches of cloud-based solutions, and growing demand from various end-users to expand their business reach globally, are estimated to drive the Small Satellite Market. In addition, rugged, superior and cost-effective Satellite Terminals and telematics devices are becoming a part of the present-day comprehensive fleet management solution, which also boost the market growth. In December 2020, the leading GPS Tracking Systems provider, Rewire Security launched GPS & Telematics software for fleets. The latest software by Rewire enables enterprise owners to generate the location of vehicles in real-time, monitor fleet driver behaviour, observe driver route history and other GPS & Telematics software features. Based on the increasing needs of visibility across the transportation sectors, in October 2020, ORBCOMM, a global provider of Internet of Things (IoT) solutions, launched ST 2100, a state-of-the-art satellite communications device that enables solution providers for seamless Satellite connectivity to IOT applications, and also several other targeted verticals, such as fleet management and utility. Thus, the latest versatile Communication device launches and power-efficient platforms, such as Satellite Antenna for maximum reliability and security drive the growth of the Small Satellite Market.

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Potential demand for Maritime Satellite Communication solution

The promising requirements to seek enhanced and reliable connectivity between the land and sea operations, along with VSAT connectivity for on-board security and surveillance of shipping industry influence the demand of Maritime Satellite Communication platforms, thereby drive the growth of the Small Satellite Market. The technology innovations across maritime sectors are expanding due to the introduction of gyro-stabilized ground terminals, Minisatellite platforms and multi-frequency dish antennas to reduce the time lag during data transfer. In April 2019, a major international provider of telecommunications, enterprise and consumer technology solutions for the Mobile Internet, ZTE, announced the collaboration with Zhejiang Branch of China Mobile to launch “Heweitong”, a marine broadband satellite solution. The Heweitong offers seamless extension of the mobile network to the ocean, and mitigate other issues, such as high cost, poor coverage and slow data rate. Therefore, the growing emergence of new marine communication with ubiquitous connection for exceptional service is estimated to drive the Small Satellite Market.

Small Satellite Market Challenges

Compatible Issue

The Small Satellites are designed to deliver advantageous services and indubitably, there are several successful launches around the globe and other possible space missions that eventually supported the mass production of platforms such as the CubeSat for upgraded communications role. However, small satellites are not compatible with every kind of operation due to being launched in lower orbits and also, tend to have a shorter lifespan. The design lasts for a year as it gets orbital decay due to the other orbital elements in space. Moreover, the available space is very limited, which is a major concern along with other mentioned design flaws, which hinder the growth of the Small Satellite Market.

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Small Satellite Market Landscape

Partnerships and acquisitions along with product launches are the key strategies adopted by the players in the Small Satellite Market. The Small Satellite top 10 companies include Airbus SE, BAE Systems plc, Dauria Aerospace, L3Harris Technologies, Inc., Lockheed Martin, Magellan Aerospace, Maxar Technologies Inc., Northrop Grumman, ORBCOMM Inc., Rocket Lab, Park Aerospace Corp., Sierra Nevada Corporation, Aerospace Corporation, Space Flight Laboratory and many more.

Acquisitions/Technology Launches/Partnerships

In April 2021, the Norwegian Space Agency announced the successful launch of the NorSat-3 maritime tracking microsatellite built by Space Flight Laboratory (SFL), a premier microspace organization and provider of low-cost microsatellites and nanosatellites, in Toronto. The NorSat-3 maritime tracking is designed for space-based maritime traffic monitoring.

In April 2020, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, DARPA awarded Lockheed Martin a $5.8 million contract for the Blackjack program, a satellite integration operation. The Blackjack is a project of DARPA to deploy a constellation of 20 satellites in low Earth orbit by the year 2022 to generate global high-speed communications.

In March 2020, Rocket Lab, a private American aerospace manufacturer and small satellite launch service provider signed an agreement to acquire Sinclair Interplanetary, a Toronto-based satellite hardware company. The acquisition is developed to deliver reliable and flexible satellite and launch solutions.

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#Small Satellite Market price #Small Satellite Market #Micro-Satellite #Small Satellite Market size #Femto-Satellite #Small Satellite industry #Small Satellite Market share #Small Satellite Market report #Small Satellite industry outlook

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o-craven-canto · 2 years

Text

Ea: Our Second Chance (4)

4. Earth, 2070

(> Back to 3. South of the Dagon Sea > On to 5. Ea’s biosophere, two centuries later)

(full-sized image)

The world the 10,000 representatives of humankind left when they came to Ea. [Note for context: this map was drawn before the COVID pandemic, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the invasion of Ukraine, and therefore takes none of those into account.]

THE 2020s: THE NILE WAR AND ITS AFTERMATH

In the "Culture War" flares of the 2010s and early 2020s, the extreme political blocs branch off on their own; by the end of the decade all that's left of the major parties are the bland centrist bureaucrats, as well as a multitude of unelectable hyperspecialized parties. American economy and politics is increasingly isolationist: many overseas military bases are dismantled; the UN establishes a secondary headquarter in Geneva, which soon becomes more important than the one in New York.

Ethiopia begins building an extensive dam system on the upper Nile. Negotiations with the downstream countries break down; eventually, the dams are bombed by the Egyptian air force. War spreads to all northeastern Africa, with significant interventions of Nigeria (on the Ethiopian side) and Saudi Arabia (on the Egyptian side). The whole region is devastated by the Nile War; in particular, Ethiopia collapses, and riots in Saudi Arabia threaten the monarchy.

In the aftermath of the Nile War, military government are propped up by the African Union to keep order in the devastated countries. The peacekeeping forces are largely provided by the countries of the East African Community. A mysterious man known as Muntu tours the archaeological sites of Africa preaching a religion founded on the common origin and nature of humankind. He is claimed to perform miraculous healing and to supernaturally escape death, converting his attackers to the new faith.

Poland and Ukraine form an alliance ("Intermarium") against the aggressive policies of Russia in the east. The alliance is soon extended to many other countries of eastern Europe.

Sea level rise and saltwater infiltration start making the soil of Bangladesh impossible to farm, and many regions will soon sink. Tens of millions of Bengali people scatter in the world. Europe, North America, and East Asia are hit by a refugee crisis far worse than a decade before. Agriculture also suffers worldwide; billions are spent to protect cities such as Miami, Rotterdam, and Venice from flooding. Sumatra, South Vietnam, and Louisiana suffer greatly.

By the end of the decade, permanent ice has all but disappeared in the Arctic, and the Indonesian rainforest is mostly gone. Space programs keep growing quietly, with manned missions by India, Brazil, South Africa, and South Korea. Genetic therapies are available for several diseases, including AIDS.

THE 2030s: BREAKING STRAIN

Warming in the Russian Far East exposes large traits of mining and farming ground. Since the Russian population is declining, the government provide incentives for foreigners to work that land. Millions of Chinese workers, fleeing the desertification of northeastern China, establish themselves there.

After many years of increasing economical and cultural integration, the countries of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi join to form the East African Federation. Much wealth is brought in by the construction of an international space launch site on the Equator. The religion founded by Muntu, Umoja, is growing in popularity, though the Prophet is eventually killed in a terror attack in Geneva in 2034, along with 77 others.

The demographic shifts compounded by the Bengali Diaspora put strain on European politics. The United Kingdom withdraws from the continent altogether, threatening nuclear retaliation against any "breach of sovereignty". It offers to extend such protection to Ireland in exchange for its farming land. Japan and Australia do the same, although the latter is much less successful.

As oil becomes increasingly expensive to extract, and its use is phased out of most technology, many oil-exporting nations collapse. Saudi Arabia crumbles into anarchy, and will be put under "temporary" UN administration. Nigeria falls apart. A socialist revolution sweeps Iran destroying the islamic government. Dubai survives, reinventing itself as a new center of electronics and computer engineering.

In these years, the idea of the Exodus starts to spread. The first manned mission to Mars occurs, as well as many unmanned ones to the Outer Solar System, though there is little practical followup. A Suzhou corporation called Penglai is the greatest private backer of the missions (and many other growing technologies, including cryonics and geoengineering). A military coup in North Korea effectively places the country under Chinese control.

THE 2040s: GLOBAL REARRANGEMENTS

The European Union gives way. The "core" territories restructure themselves as the much tighter European Federation, while the southern countries create the Mediterranean Forum with Turkey and North Africa. Italy and Spain find themselves torn - quite literally - between the two. Umoja becomes popular in the Forum, while Catholic traditionalism sees a certain increase in popularity in the Federation.

Fed by Indian and Chinese investments, certain African countries undergo extreme economic grow and industrialization, developing into key financial and technological centers. Senegambia, Eswatini, Igboland, and Somaliland become the "African Lions". Dubai is sometimes counted as one due to its close economic and diplomatic ties.

Many island nations of the Pacific, such as Palau and Kiribati, start disappearing under the waves. After much political browbeating and bribing, the UN establishes a Pacific People Resettlement Area in the Australian inland, in a region already crowded by Bengali refugees. Umoja grows here as well. Inspired by the tragedy, a great movement for the protection of native peoples threatened by climate change sweeps the world, with particular appeal in Canada, Siberia, Sahel, and the Amazon.

The military junta ruling Pakistan after the recent coup attacks the troubled Iranian regime in the attempt to unite an increasingly fractured country. The war is brief, but it sees several biological and tactical nuclear attacks, eventually ending in the breakdown of Pakistan. International action pushes for a tighter control of WMD by the UN to prevent future horrors as those of the Iran-Pakistani War.

As traditional Protestantism fades away from US culture, Mormonism grows in popularity as the "true" American religion. Worsening droughts in the Southwest and hurricanes on the East Coast lead to repeated emergency states with rationing of water and electricity. History's first large-scale biological terror attack, involving a modified strand of anthrax, occurs in San Francisco in 2046; the perpetrators remain unknown, but are suspected to be a radical eco-primitivist organization.

Liu Jinshan, CEO and cofounder of Penglai, is the first person in history to own more than a trillion US dollars in private assets. The strongest proponents of interstellar colonization are Liu herself and Joseph Jacobson, a prominent Mormon preacher. The first AIs with greater computational power than the human brain are produced, though none seeks to simulate a complete mind. A woman with brain cancer is awakened from 6 years of cryoconservation to undergo an experimental treatment; the former is successful, the latter not as much. Embryo selection is widespread, and "designed children" with fully customizable genome are slowly becoming available.

THE 2050s: THE DECADE OF COLLAPSE

Russian national energy companies are violently expelled from the warming regions in the east. Chinese and Bengali immigrates ally with movements for native rights in agitating for independence. After a brief civil war, the Siberian Republics break away from Russia. Their staunch opposition to global warming mitigation quickly makes them rogue nations. The government of the Lena Republic, in particular, is accused of deliberately setting peatbogs on fire to release carbon into the atmosphere.

As many times before, the wealth of coastal Chinese provinces fails to extend inland. After failed expeditions to secure Siberian territory, China falls apart. The mainland reorganizes itself by Neo-Maoist principles, while the coastal Eastern Republic (actually a rather loose confederation of provinces) embraces free market and multiparty democracy. Tibet and Uyghurstan break away, though the former remains in China's political orbit. The surprisingly bloodless (for Chinese standards) conflict ends with the Shenzhen Pact recognizing autonomy but keeping economic ties between the Chinese states, as well as other countries.

The Four Europes have taken form. In the north, Scotland and the Scandinavian countries are united in the Nordic Alliance. In the south, European and North African countries grow culturally and politically closer in the chaotic Mediterranean Forum. In the east, the well-armed confederation of Intermarium turns its wariness westward. In the west, the European Federation starts thinking about enlightened monarchy as a counterweight to nationalist populism; some press for the progressive Grand Duke of Luxembourg to ascend to the throne of Europe.

Most of North Africa has collapsed into war. Thanks to progresses in solar energy production and transmission, burning desert is now a precious resource. The Mediterranean Forum enthusiastically intervenes; many Berber tribes earn a living as mercenary armies attacking or protecting the solar stations, and sometimes carve out their own independent kingdoms. The situation in Saudi Arabia is hardly better; since the 2030s, the Holy Cities have changed hands dozens of times.

Despite the 2050s being the most violent decade of the 21st century, world population passes ten billion people in 2057. By this time, Umoja counts over 50 million believers. Methane clathrates in former Russia begin outgassing. The UN passes a resolution on geoengineering: special "guns" are built in the Russian and Canadian Arctic to inject sulfate particles in the upper atmosphere. The first functional nuclear fusion reactor is built in Europe in 2055.

THE 2060s: BUILDING A NEW WORLD

Revolutionary groups in Nunavut, whose population has vastly grown from climate-induced poleward migrations, seize control of the sulfate guns and declare independence from Canada. As of 2070, the political situation is still ambiguous.

Decades of centralization of powers in the person of the US President, combined with the constant emergency state, have resulted in an almost imperial position. President D'Agostino eventually decides to split the USA in five "autonomous areas" according to rough ethnic and cultural lines: Northwest/Pacific (technocratic, ecologically conscious, and strongly influenced by Asia), Southwest/Nortena (mostly Hispanic, profiting from solar energy), Central/Heartland (mostly white and Mormon), Southeast/Atlantic (mostly black and Umojan), and Northeast/Union (the seat of power, the most culturally conservative).

UN Protectorates become a common feature of the international order. The warzone in North Africa has been pacified as the so-called "Solar Mandate" (providing most of the energy of Europe). Other directly UN-controlled areas include former Saudi Arabia, Jammu-Kashmir, parts of Nigeria and Somalia, what little remains of Bangladesh, and the Resettlement Area in Australia. Amazonas, created to protect the surviving rainforest in western Brazil, is mostly autonomous; the "Security Mandate" in northeast Africa (essentially the wrecks of the Nile War) is controlled indirectly via the African Union.

Construction of the UNSS Utnapishtim begins in geostationary orbit in 2062. By 2068, construction is complete; loading and recruitment are underway. Methane eruptions increase in intensity, threatening a sudden increase in global temperature by several degrees. The rise of Umoja threatens many traditional religions; climate migrations create sharp divisions in many countries; the world is divided between unstable alliances; the new United Nations may pit themselves against the very concept of sovereign nation-states; a generation of "designed children" is coming of age, creating new rifts and revealing unforeseen effects; mass destruction is easier than ever. Earth is once again on the brink.

Transcript of the map under the cut:

List of major polities (population; capital)

THE FOUR EUROPES

European Federation (260 million; Bruxelles)

Nordic Alliance (35 million; Trondheim)

Intermarium (110 million; Katowice)

Mediterranean Forum (360 million; Valletta)

EX UNO PLURA

Northwest (“Pacific States”) (40 million; Portland)

Southwest (“Nortena Republic”) (60 million; San Diego)

Central (“Heartland States”) (120 million; Denver)

Northeast (“Union States”) (80 million; Washington DC)

Southeast (“Atlantic States”) (100 million; Atlanta)

THE NEW AFRICA

East African Federation (240 million; Arusha)

The “African Lions” (130 million total; Enugu is capital of Igboland)

Sahel Alliance (170 million; Bamako)

ISLAND NATIONS

Anglo-Irish Commonwealth (70 million; London and Dublin are “joint capitals”)

Japan (120 million; Tokyo)

Australia (35 million; Canberra)

People’s Republic of Iran (110 million; Mardombad)

Israel (15 million; Jerusalem)

STRONGER TOGETHER

Shenzhen Pact (1700 million total, of which 1100 in People’s Republic of China, 470 in Eastern Republic; Shenzhen, while the capitals of PRC and ER are Beijing and Guangzhou)

Southeast Asian Alliance (730 million total; Singapore)

Mesoamerican Treaty (75 million total; San Jose)

Union of Siberian Republics (18 million total; Yakutsk)

West Indies Federation (55 million total; Kingston)

FOR THE COMMON GOOD

UN Protectorates (180 million total; Geneva)

African Union Security Mandate (120 million total; Khartoum)

Amazonas (6 million; Manaus)

Control over the sulfur guns that reflect back sunlight gave the population of Nunavut, magnified by northward migration, enough power to negotiate independence from Canada.

The Pacific States are big on environmentalism: sometimes it’s hard ecological pragmatism, sometimes it’s pseudo-Shinto mysticism.

As the Latter Day Saints church keeps growing in popularity, Salt Lake City is one the most popular pilgrimage destinations in the world.

In the black-majority Atlantic States, Umoja has become astonishingly popular. Many Protestant churches are radicalizing in response, blaming the flood of New Orleans on the conversion.

The central government of Mexico has mostly given up on ruling the north, effectively employing the least murderous cartels as autonomous vassals. Some states have sought union with the kindred Nortena Republic.

The West Indies seem to have been the favorite destination of the Bengali Diaspora, which now makes up over 25% of the population.

The orbital mirror meant to deflect sunlight from the North Pole was launched from European Guyana, with great pride of the local population.

An ecologist uprising in the 2040s, combined with a forceful campaign for the rights of native peoples, convinced Brazil to turn Amazonas into a largely independent, well-armed quasi-nation under international scrutiny.

South Africa has been stagnating for half a centuty: almost all its bright minds have moved to Eswatini.

Katanga is hotly contested between various ethnonationalist groups, Umojan militias, UN peacekeepers, and corporate forces (mostly Penglai’s).

The Umojan religion has become an overwhelming majority in the East African Federation, and is growing at surprising speed in the Mediterranean countries, India, Caribbeans, and Malaysia.

Senegambia (a), Igboland (b), Eswatini (c), and Somaliland (d) are some of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Igboland is sometimes called “the Singapore of Africa” for its combination of authoritarian government and very high living standards.

Ethiopia suffered terribly from the Nile War, and assimilation in the EAF may be its best bet. The Security Mandate in the west still hasn’t got things running again.

The Sahel Alliance is mostly controlled by Tuareg warlords displaced by the end of hostilities in the Sahara, or by people who employ them. It includes strict Islamic theocracies, tribal states, and militaristic “republics”.

Most of Sahara is under direct UN administration, ostensibly to ensure the safety of the nomad cultures, more likely to control its juicy solar energy.

The Mediterranean Forum is scared as hell of ecoterrorism ever since someone barely failed to bomb the Assuan Dam, and is reacting accordingly. (The Dutch are not thrilled by the thought of destroyed dams, either.)

The royal families of Spain and Netherlands now mostly spend their time hanging out together at the Canaries, feeling useless.

Catalunya is by far the wealthiest member of the Mediterranean Forum, which is sometimes accused of being a joint Turkish-Catalan empire.

The UN, now headquartered in Geneva, is very different from what it used to be in the American Age. For one, it can actually enforce its rulings. An actual standing army and special exemptions from the rules of war might have something to do with that.

The European Federation’s attitude toward its southern neighbor is an interesting mix of 2010s left-wing social justice and 1890s white-man’s-burden condescension.

After withdrawing from the continent, the UK gained access to the agricultural production of Ireland by sharing its own nuclear shield. Culture and politics are still sharply divided between the two islands.

The Intermarium was originally organized to counter Russian expansionism; now it spends most of its time eyeing suspiciously the European Federation to the west.

With Gaza a member of the Forum, the West Bank absorbed into Jordan, and most of the Arab world looking elsewhere, Israel is calmer than it has ever been. Now it mostly thinks of agricultural technology and electronics.

The formation of Kurdistan is anther consequence of the wars that spread from the Iranian Second Revolution in the 2030s.

Now that the Saudi royal family is gone, UN-controlled Arabia is still more relaxed about adherence to sharia, though the Holy Cities are still administered by a Sunni-only council.

The absolute-monarchical nature of Dubai was only amplified by turning to information technology and on-demand designer genomes: now it’s a weird solar-powered, neo-feudal cyberobiopunk dys(?)topia.

After decades of grueling UN-mediated negotiation with tribal leaders and the surrounding nations, the nation of Afghanistan is a distant memory, though Hazaristan and Pashtunistan are not faring much better.

The whole territory of Bangladesh had to be placed under UN aegis when the flooding was at its worst. Most of the country as it was in the 2000s is now under water.

India has dealt successfully with separatist movements in Assam and Tamil Nadu, skirmishes with Nepal, Baluchistan, and Punjab, and of course a hundred million refugees from Bangladesh. Apart from having to renounce control of Jammu-Kashmir, it’s arguably better off than any other early-century power.

After the collapse of China, Tibet (a) and the Amur Republic (b) were so completely sinified that they agreed to join the Shenzhen Pact...

... while Uyghurstan wanted to have absolutely nothing to do with it.

The People’s Republic still runs on the old,and now self-sustaining, system of “social credit”. Most population has been relocated into equally populated sectors for greater ease of control. The system works better than it ough tto thanks to the funds streaming in from the Eastern Republic.

Despite being officially Siberian native homelands, the population here is mostly Bengali and Chinese. The Sakha Republic has one of the highest per capita GDP in the world - but averages can be deceptive.

Japan’s enthusiasm for robotics is still going, but in recent years they have started to turn toward genetic engineering. As it’s once again “closed country”, the rest of the world doesn’t hear much about it...

... so Korea has mostly replaced Japan as the land of Eastern wonders and weirdness in global imagination.

The greater effects of flooding on Sumatra than on Java has set off rather nasty rivalries within Indonesia, though for now the Southeast Asian Alliance has helped keep the peace.

The Pacific People Resettlement Area was established in the Australian inland to host the refugees from the flooded Pacific islands. Conditions are quite miserable.

About 6000 Argentinian citizens live on the Antarctic Peninsula as a de facto colony. The legal status of Sierra Blanca is... complicated, to say the least.

The flight south wasn’t quite as extensive as the one north, but Argentina received a decent share of climate-driven immigration.

The division of Italy was actually quite amicable; it’s said that the governments in Rome and Turin secretly work with each other to extract as much gain as possible from both the EF and the MF.

The Mayan-majority state of Chiapas was one of the main hotspots of the movement for native autonomy. Until recently seeking union with Guatemala, it’s now pushing for a EU-style Mesoamerican community.

#future history #worldbuilding #my work #ea our second chance #longpost #please don't take it too seriously #fwiw this is not meant as a straight dystopia NOR utopia

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