#26 04 1980

[mostlysignssomeportents]

The seductive, science fictional power of spreadsheets

Tomorrow (Apr 30) at 2PM, I’ll be at the San Francisco Public Library with my new book, Red Team Blues, hosted by Annalee Newitz.

This week, John Scalzi was kind enough to let me write a guest-editorial for his Whatever blog about the themes in my new crime technothriller, Red Team Blues; specifically, about the ways that spreadsheets embody the power and the pitfalls of science fiction at its best and worst:

https://whatever.scalzi.com/2023/04/26/the-big-idea-cory-doctorow-2/

If you’d like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here’s a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/04/29/gedankenexperimentwahn/#high-on-your-own-supply

Yes, spreadsheets. Marty Hench (the protagonist of Red Team Blues) is a 67-year-old forensic accountant who specializes in unwinding Silicon Valley financial frauds, a field he basically invented 40 years ago, when, as a PC-struck MIT dropout, he moved from Cambridge to San Francisco to recover the stolen millions hidden in spreadsheets.

Working through this book — and its two sequels, which travel back in time to the 1980s and Marty’s first encounters with VisiCalc and Lotus 1–2–3 — I was struck by the similarities between spreadsheets and science fiction.

While many people use spreadsheets as an overgrown calculator, adding up long columns of numbers, the rise and rise of spreadsheets comes from their use in modeling. Using a spreadsheet, a complex process can be expressed as a series of mathematical operations: we put these inputs into the factory and we get these finished goods. Once the model is built, we can easily test out contrafactuals: what if I add a third shift? What if I bargain harder for discounts on a key component? If I give my workers a productivity-increasing raise, will the profits make up for the costs?

These are the questions that anyone managing a complex system asks themselves all the time. Historically, the answers have sprung from intuition, from fingerspitzengefühl — the “fingertip feeling” of how a system’s components work and what their potential and limitations are. But intuition can calcify, become a rigid set of rules that increasingly diverge from the best strategy.

By contrast, spreadsheets yield a set of crisp, instantly tallied answers to any question you put to them. Change the input and watch as that change ripples through the whole system in an eyeblink. If you’re adding three more people to your camping trip, will the amount of additional water require renting another vehicle? No need to guess: just check and see.

This has a lot in common with science fiction, a genre full of thought experiments that ask Heinlein’s famous three questions:

What if?

If only, and

If this goes on…

These contrafactuals are incredibly useful and important. As critical tools, science fiction’s parables about the future are the best chance we have for resisting the inevitabilism that insists that technology must be used in a certain way, or must exist at all. Science fiction doesn’t just interrogate what the gadget does, but who it does it for and who it does it to:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/03/20/love-the-machine/#hate-the-factory

One of science fiction’s key methods comes from sf grandmaster Theodore Sturgeon: “ask the next question.” Ask a question, then ask “what happens next?” Do it again, and again, and again:

https://christopher-mckitterick.com/Sturgeon-Campbell/Sturgeon-Q.htm

This technique produces excellent, critical ways of interrogating technological narratives — check out this delightful example of the possible pipeline from self-driving cars to ransomware gangs to mutual aid societies to the reinvention of the train:

https://dduane.tumblr.com/post/715940904747352064/you-can-make-your-mercedes-ev-go-faster-for-60-a

The commonalities between sf and spreadsheets don’t stop there — sf and spreadsheets share pitfalls, too. A spreadsheet is a model and a model is not the thing it models. The map is not the territory. Every time a messy, real-world process is converted to a crisp, mathematical operation, some important qualitative element is lost.

Modeling is an intrinsically lossy operation. That’s why “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.” There is no process so simple that it can be losslessly converted to a model. Even the actions of the nanoscale transistors in a microchip, which toggle between “0” and “1,” are rarely in a state of “no voltage” and “voltage.” That clean, square-wave line that’s used to describe what happens in a chip is a lie — that is to say, it is a model.

The wave isn’t square, it’s a squiggly line that hovers around zero and around one. Under normal circumstances, “zero” and “zero-ish” is a distinction without a difference. But when computers go wrong, it’s sometimes because a sufficiently ambiguous “zero-ish” acts like a “one.” That’s true all the way up the stack. On engineering diagrams, the nanoscale lines that electrons travel along inside a chip are represented as sharp paths, the kind of thing a Tron-cycle would lay down. But in the real world, we get all kinds of weird effects at that scale — electrons sometimes tunnel through those lines, performing a spooky quantum trick that reminds us that Newtononian physics are also just a model.

Every real-world phenomenon contains qualitative and quantitative elements, but computers can only do math on the quantitative parts. This creates a powerful temptation to incinerate the qualitative and perform operations on whatever dubious quantitative residue is left in the crucible, often with disastrous results.

Remember during lockdown, when a pair of University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign physicists produced a model of covid spread that predicted that the campus could safely reopen, predicting no more than 500 cases over the entire semester and no more than 100 cases at any one time? The physicists were openly contemptuous of their epidemiologist peers, saying that this kind of model making lacked the “intellectual thrill” of real science.

UI was so swayed by the crisp, precise model that they invited students back to campus — only to shut down again in a matter of weeks, with 780 active cases on campus and more rolling in every day.

The model reduced qualitative factors — like the propensity of undergrads to get drunk, take off their masks, and lick each others’ eyeballs — to a quantitative probability, using the highly precise, scientific technique of taking a wild-ass guess. That guess was wrong. The campus reopening was a super-spreader event.

Any model runs the risk of hiding the irreducible complexity of qualitative factors behind a formula, turning uncertainty into certainty and humility into arrogance.

Think of how we replaced contact tracing with exposure notification. Contact tracing has a qualitative foundation: public health workers establish rapport with infected people, win their trust, and get them to fully enumerate the places they’ve been and the activities they participated in.

By contrast, exposure notification measures whether two Bluetooth radios were within range of each other for a predetermined interval. It substitutes signal strength for a person’s own understanding of their experience. Now, people can be wrong about their own experience — we lose track of time, we misremember emotionally charged events, and so on — but that doesn’t mean we can substitute Bluetooth measurements for personal experience.

That’s why, despite all the clever privacy-preserving math and interesting analysis, exposure notification was a bust, something between a distraction and a false-confidence-generating disaster. Contact tracing ended the 2014 ebola outbreak. Exposure notification just wasted a lot of time:

https://locusmag.com/2021/05/cory-doctorow-qualia/

It’s just too easy to forget which parts of a model are based on guesses and which parts are based on ground truth. And even if you can keep track of those differences, it’s even harder to re-check the model’s ground truth to determine whether the underlying factors have changed. That’s how we got into so much trouble with collateralized debt obligations, which were supposed to be “risk-free” mortgage derivatives that could be safely insured and invested in.

The formulas behind CDO hedging were designed by some of the world’s smartest mathematicians and physicists, who simply assumed that market actors — from loan-originating bank officers to insurance underwriters — would act in reliable, predictable ways. They were so very wrong that they brought the world economy to the brink of ruin:

https://www.wired.com/2009/02/wp-quant/

This is also science fiction’s failure-mode: any science fictional “ask-the-next-question” exercise represents a series of guesses or speculations or maybe possibilities — but when you combine that guesswork with the deceptive certainty that comes from inhabiting a cracking story, it’s easy to mistake “guessing” for “prediction.”

Prediction is hard, especially about the future. The assumptions that go into a prediction are always incomplete, not least because human beings have free will and agency and can change the circumstances that go into the assumptions. The very best science fiction embodies this principle. I’m thinking here of the likes of Ada Palmer, an historian and sf writer whose deep historical knowledge informs her sf and her pedagogy at the University of Chicago:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/02/10/monopoly-begets-monopoly/#terra-ignota

Palmer is famous — even notorious — for her annual four-week undergraduate LARP in which students re-enact the election of the Medicis’ Pope. It’s four weeks of alliances, betrayal and skullduggery by the students, each of whom is enacting the agenda of a real-world Cardinal or other power-broker.

The final investiture is done in full costume at the university’s massive faux-gothic cathedral, and going into that climax, of the four candidates, two are always the same, because the great forces of history are bearing down on that moment to ensure that the champions of the two dominant power-blocs are in the running. But the other two? They’re never the same — because the agency of the actors jockeying for power change the outcome, every single time, in absolutely unpredictable ways.

Like any other model, sf is wrong, but sometimes useful. Thinking about jetpacks and flying cars is “useful” insofar as it gets us to interrogate how we think about cities, about mobility, about privilege and geography. But it’s not a prediction. Worse, the endless tales in which flying cars are presented a fait accompli is a gift to grifters raising money for the objectively stupid idea of flying cars. After all, we all know flying cars are inevitable, so it’s basically a risk-free investment, right? With flying cars just around the corner, wouldn’t it be irresponsible to build a city with mass-transit instead of helipads?

There’s a whole range of thought-experiments that got transformed into predictions and then certainties: self-driving cars, “general artificial intelligence,” infinite life-extension, space colonization, faster-than-light travel, cryptocurrency, etc etc.

Spreadsheets don’t just lead their users astray — they also trick their creators. The very same people who transform wild-assed guesses about hairy, unknowable outcomes into neat mathematical relationships are perfectly capable of acting as if those relationships are based on fact, rather than supposition. The Great Financial Crisis wasn’t just about people who didn’t understand the uncertainty in the hedging algorithm going all-in — the people who made those models were also fooled by them.

It’s very easy to get high on your own supply. I’ll never forget the sf convention panel I was on with Robert Silverberg about sf’s supposed predictive value, where the subject of Robert A Heinlein came up, and Silverberg sniffed, and, in that trademark bone-dry way of his, said, “Ah yes, ‘Robert A Timeline.’”

Sf isn’t just full of writers who mistake their suppositions for predictions — the canon is full of tales in which brilliant people can and do predict the future, with near-perfection. Think of Hari Seldon, the hero of Asimov’s Foundation series, who is able to forecast the future several millennia out. Or Heinlein’s first-ever story, “Life-Line,” in which a genius inventor destroys the insurance industry by creating a computer that can predict your exact date of death using statistical methods.

There’s something wild about this phenomenon, in which writers make stuff up and then assume that anything that cool must also be accurate. One tantalizing explanation for this comes from EL Doctorow’s (no relation) essay “Genesis,” from his 2007 collection “The Creationists”:

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/41520/creationists-by-e-l-doctorow/

Doctorow tells the history of the Genesis story, which the Hebrews plagiarized from the Babylonians. In Doctorow’s telling, the Babylonian mystics who made up the Genesis story assumed that it had to be true, because they considered themselves to be nowhere near imaginative enough to have come up with something as great as Genesis. An idea that amazing had to be divinely inspired.

I like this because it’s a story of being led astray by humility, rather than hubris.

Imaginative exercises — whether or not they are assisted by mathematical models and self-updating digital spreadsheets — are powerful tools for thinking about the future we want, and to guide our attempts to make that future come true. All models are wrong but some models are useful, of course!

I’m on tour with Red Team Blues right now — I’m writing this post while waiting for my flight to San Francisco, where I’m appearing at the public library with Annalee Newitz tomorrow (4/30) at 2PM:

https://sfpl.org/events/2023/04/30/author-cory-doctorow-and-annalee-newitz-conversation-red-team-blues

One especially fun stop on this tour will be on May 5, at the Books, Inc in Mountain View, where I’ll be talking about the book with Mitch Kapor, the creator of Lotus 1–2–3, who knows a thing or two about spreadsheets:

https://www.booksinc.net/event/cory-doctorow-books-inc-mountain-view

The tour is bringing me to Berkeley, Vancouver, Calgary, DC, Gaithersburg, Toronto, PDX, Nottingham, Hay, London, Manchester, Edinburgh and Berlin — I hope to see you!

https://craphound.com/novels/redteamblues/2023/04/26/the-red-team-blues-tour-burbank-sf-pdx-berkeley-yvr-edmonton-gaithersburg-dc-toronto-hay-oxford-nottingham-manchester-london-edinburgh-london-berlin/

Catch me on tour with Red Team Blues in Mountain View, Berkeley, San Francisco, Portland, Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, DC, Gaithersburg, Oxford, Hay, Manchester, Nottingham, London, and Berlin!

[Image ID: A Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet with green-on-black, low-res type; its center has an irregular vignette revealing a space station.]

#pluralistic #el doctorow #parables #gedankenexperiments #contrafactuals #qualitative factors #quantization #collateralized debt obligations #cdos #science fiction #false precision #great financial crisis #models #spreadsheets #red team blues #the map is not the territory #warnings #prediction #fingerspitzengefühl

[djkibrit]

During Which Months Did Persona 1 And 2 Duology Take Place?

It’s well known among fans of the series that the later entries take place during an entire school year, however the same can’t be said about the earlier games. The only confirmed information about the time frame that P1 and P2 occur is the year, but dialogue present in these entries and the characters’ birthdays allow us to stipulate a more precise date of when they took place.

Before starting, it’s important to be aware of how the school year in Japan is divided (I’m not Japanese and all the information I got is from the internet. So if you are more familiar with the system, feel free to correct me or to just talk more about it): The academic year in Japan starts from April and ends in March, having summer vacation in August (normally going from July 20 to August 31) and winter vacation in the end of December to the beginning of January (normally going from December 26 to around January 6).

-Obs: All of the dates that I have just mentioned are related to 2023/2024. I wasn’t able to find anything about it in 1996 or 1999. So take them with a grain of salt.

Persona 1:

List of the main cast birthdays + their ages:

April 09, 1979 - Yukino -  17

June 04, 1979 - Maki - 17

July 11, 1979 - Mark - 17

August 18, 1979 - Reiji - 17

September 21, 1979 - Eriko - 17

October 02, 1979 - Nanjo - 17

December 24, 1979 (it's a complete nonsense) - Protagonist IN THE MANGA - 17

January 01, 1980 - Brown - 16

March 03, 1980 - Ayase - 16

Analyzing the age of the characters, it can be assumed that the game takes place at the end of 1996 since Nanjo is already 17 when it occurs. However, the birthday date of the protagonist in manga, generates some inconsistencies: if taking this date into consideration, the game would take place between December 24, 1996 and December 26, 1996 - since, after that, the winter vacation starts. It could be hypothetically possible for the game to only last two days, however, considering that there are two routes and that most people believe that P1 happened during a whole week, I’m ignoring this date. With this, we can conclude that:

Persona 1 Probable Time Period: Between October 02, 1996 and December 26, 1996

Persona 2 Duology:

List of the main cast birthdays + their ages:

April 09, 1979 - Yukino - 20

February 14, 1982 - Jun - 17 

May 04, 1982 - Lisa - 17 

June 13, 1967 - Baofu - 32

July 04, 1976 - Maya - 23

July 27, 1981 - Tatsuya - 18 

September 21, 1979 - Eriko (P2:EP) - 20

October 02, 1979 - Nanjo (P2:EP) - 20

November 15, 1982 - Eikichi - 16 

November 30, 1974 - Ulala - 24

December 30, 1973 - Katsuya - 25

-Obs: If you want to know why I only used July 27, 1981 as Tatsuya’s birthday while ignoring August 21, 1981 (present in the SMT Wiki) as a possible date, there’s this post explaining it.

Let’s begin with Innocent Sin. Besides the age of cast, there’s another variable that needs to be taken into account: when the Grand Cross happened. In real life, this event occurred on August 18 1999 and, while, in Eternal Punishment, many NPCs mentioned that the Grand Cross had passed during the summer, we can’t be sure if it happened during this specific date due to one small thing: rumors becoming true. It could be very plausible that the Grand Cross in IS took place in a different time because it was influenced by rumors, while, in EP, the actual Grand Cross occurred as normal. That being said, I’m using August 18 1999 as the day that this event happened (only because I can’t even think of another date) since I don’t believe that the creators would change it.

Well, we found out the period of when the game ended so finding when it began should not be that difficult, right?... Oh, is August 18 during the summer vacation in Japan? And are there characters attending class both during the beginning as well the end of the game? Well… things just got a little bit more complicated. 

In front of this adversity, I have two prepositions. The first one depends on the assumption that the summer vacation in Japan used to happen during a different time frame in 1999 than the one we have now. With that, we can guess that the game starts around July 27, 1981 since Tatsuya would already be 18. On the other hand, the second one regards the vacation period of 1999 as the same one as the one of now. In this hypothesis, we can guess that the game began some time before July 20 as well that the Kasugayama School Festival happened on the last day of class. Personally, I’m putting the latter just because the former’s time frame is also included in it. With this, we can conclude that:

P2:IS Probable Time Period: Between July 12, 1999 and August 18, 1999

Finally, we can get into Eternal Punishment! After the many contradictions present in Innocent Sin’s time frame (Nyarly would be proud), discovering when EP takes place is going to be way easier and this is only possible due to the main cast’s birthdays along with their dialogue. 

First of all, it’s been confirmed by the creator that EP occurred some months after the Grand Cross, more specifically, during the autumn 1999. With that, we can take a closer look into one dialogue said by Nanjo in Parabellum a bit before going into Mt. Iwato: “Ms. Amamo, he is still a minor. I do not feel it wise to bring him to this kind of establishment… NO, I’m not being tense!”. For those unaware, the drinking age in Japan is 20 years old. Based on that, Nanjo becoming tense could be interpreted as him being nervous since he’s just recently turned 20. With that, it’s possible to presume that the game takes place after Nanjo’s birthday.

Another series of dialogue to take into consideration are of Ulala’s. During the entirety of the game, she is always stressing out that she’s turning 25 soon which indicates that her birthday has still not passed. With this, we can conclude that:

P2:EP Probable Time Period: Between October 02, 1999 and November 30, 1999

And now, we can say that this analysis is finished! Remember that this is only a personal theory of mine, done only because I couldn’t find any posts exploring the subject. Feel free to discuss your own opinions on the matter and to correct any errors I’ve made.

#persona 1 #megami ibunroku persona #persona 2 #persona 2 innocent sin #persona 2 eternal punishment #persona series #can't believe that I just wrote my first big essay in my second language and that I'm posting something the internet after so many years #I think it's pretty obvious that I'm used to writing more formal pieces of work #and also what my favorite game in the series is #IS section got pretty big haha #man I love the original persona trilogy #my post

[lucidicer]

🎂🌌🔪 for sióar!

HIHI if i can count on anyone to send oc asks its u 🫂

🎂 when is their birthday? do they like celebrating it?

their birthday is 04/21 i dont know the exact year but theyre 26 and this is set in like 1980s so. id say they enjoyed celebrating it as a kid because their family likes to make a fuss about special occasions but as they get older it's definitely not something they enjoy. probably around 16 is when i imagine their issues with their mother started to crawl in so it wasnt as fun anymore.

🌌 what was the inspiration behind your oc? what was the first thing you decided about them?

i dont know if inspiration would refer to specific characters or not but i dont think i had any in mind when i was thinking of them tbh. i mostly took inspiration from wolves and how animals behave in nature like i kinda got distracted when i was looking into like the entire history of cannibalism in europe and then in nature and i just didn't stop. the first thing i decided for them was that their entire family were cannibals pfhfjffh but more specifically for them was that they were gonna be kinda off putting and a bit of a stalker. one of the first pics i used to visualise their vibes was a humanoid creature looking thru someones window sooooo

🔪 how do they react to injury/misfortune befalling their loved ones? do they put themselves at blame?

OHHHH I LOVE THIS QUESTION ive been thinking abt this recently and theyre pretty defensive for ppl they care about along with being territorial. theyre perceptive and are basically always watching the small movements ppl make and any perceived threat can put them on edge. i wouldnt say they leap into action tho absolutely not unless it was a secluded area. i dont think they would blame themselves either like they have their own guilt for themselves they dont have room for everyone elses

#THANK UUUUUUU <3 #olli.txt #asks #*sióar

[noisemx]

Horror Films of October 2022.

(Ones that were either a first viewing for me or first time watching in their entirety.)

*top 5 standouts highlighted*

01. My Best Friend's Exorcism (2022)

02. Yellow Brick Road (2010)

03. Halloween at Aunt Ethel's (2019)

04. Phobias (2021)

05. Demented (1980)

06. Let the Wrong One In (2021)

07. Shrunken Heads (1994)

08. Hellraiser (2022)

09. Billy Club (2013)

10. Werewolf by Night (2022)

11. Terror Trips (2021)

12. Grimcutty (2022)

13. 13 Fanboy (2021)

14. Santa Sangre (1989)

15. The Offering (aka The Faith of Anna Waters) (2016)

16. Evil Dead Trap (1988)

17. Custodes (2021)

18. Dead Next Door (1989)

19. Gatlopp (2022)

20. The Curse of Frankenstein (1957)

21. Behemoth (2021)

22. The Wolf of Snow Hollow (2020)

23. Body Melt (1993)

24. Metamorphosis (1990)

25. Skinner (1993)

26. Severed Ties (1992)

27. Children of the Night (1991)

28. Terror Train (2022)

29. The Eyes of My Mother (2016)

30. Barbarian (2022)

31. We're All Going to the World's Fair (2021)

32. The Shortcut (2009)

33. Black Mountain Side (2014)

34. The Black Phone (2021)

35. Basket Case 2 (1990)

36. Basket Case 3 (1991)

37. Curse of Crom: Legend of Halloween (2022)

38. Devil Inside (2012)

39. Torn Hearts (2022)

#horror #halloween horror 2022 #santa sangre #evil dead trap #barbarian #billy club #gatlopp #dead next door #body melt #skinner #basket case 2 #basket case 3 #the eyes of my mother #the wolf of snow hollow #demented #hellraiser 2022 #terror train 2022 #let the wrong one in #severed ties #children of the night

[trevlad-sounds]

Sunday 1 October Mixtape 379 “Analogic Surfing EXCLUSIVE”

Retro Space Electronic Idm Wednesdays, Fridays & Sundays. Support the artists and labels. Don't forget to tip so future shows can bloom.

Jumble Hole Clough-Surfing the Sargasso Sea 00:31

Oberu-Analogic 03:35

London Clay-Presence Unknown 05:56

Lars Leonhard-Raytracing 09:49

Higher Intelligence Agency-Delta 16:31

Carbon Based Lifeforms, Karin My-Bloom, Pt. 1 22:34

John Scott Shepherd-Trans Space 27:32

Cate Brooks-Flowstate 30:40

Datasal-Besök 34:39

Sordid Sound System-Sharawadji 41:03

The Irresistible Force-Blue My Mind 46:50

The British Stereo Collective-Mystery Fields 54:00

Cartas de Japón-Nueva Atlantis 55:41

Dohnavùr-The Kindness Of Others - Concretism Remix 1:04:06

Violet Mist-Celestial Drift 1:07:20

S U R V I V E-Hourglass 1:10:22

Runningonair-Passage Of Days 1:17:26

Metamatics-Jakemond 1:26:52

Sick Robot-1980 1:32:12

Curved Light-VIII (Lapis) 1:38:14

James Bernard-End of an Era (Comit Remix) 1:45:55

Michael Brückner-A Secret (Part 3) 1:51:12

Mioclono, John Talabot, Velmondo-Myoclonic Sequences 1:57:20

#Jumble Hole Clough #Woodford Halse #Oberu #London Clay #Castles in Space Subscription Library #Castles In Space #Lars Leonhard #Cyclical Dreams #Higher Intelligence Agency #Carbon Based Lifeforms #Karin My #John Scott Shepherd #Cate Brooks #Café Kaput #Datasal #Höga Nord Rekords #Sordid Sound System #Invisible Inc. #The Irresistible Force #Liquid Sound Design #The British Stereo Collective #Cartas de Japón #Dohnavùr #Concretism #Violet Mist #S U R V I V E #Runningonair #Metamatics #Hydrogen Dukebox Records #Sick Robot

[nordleuchten]

24 Days of La Fayette: December 13th - Gabriel de Queyssat

Today’s entry is a short one – as in, a really short one.

Some of you might remember, that on December 5th, we had a look at John E. Hagey and concluded that he might have never worked as an aide-de-camp for La Fayette.

Gabriel de Queyssat was a French officer that came to America as part of the force under the command of General Rochambeau. It seems as if he worked as an aide-de-camp for La Fayette for some time around 1780 but nobody can say that for certain. La Fayette mentions de Queyssat once in a letter from October 3, 1780 to the Vicomte de Noailles:

MM. de Queyssats are here; now that they are, I shall try to see that they do not die of boredom; as for hunger, that depends on our provisions. I am sending you a letter for M. Baudouin; I cannot avoid writing it, but try beforehand to discourage him from coming, I beseech you.

Idzerda Stanley J. et al., editors, Lafayette in the Age of the American Revolution: Selected Letters and Papers, 1776-1790, Volume 3, April 27, 1780-March 29, 1781, Cornell University Press, 1980, p. 180-186.

Gabriel de Queyssat came to America alongside his brother, the one mentioned in the letter. There were at least three de Queyssat brothers and the one who came to America alongside Gabriel has not been identified.

As little as we do know about the brothers – one thing is certain. They were criminals! In a letter to Benjamin Franklin, dated April 16, 1778, Jean-Baptiste Le Roy made the following comment:

Vous savez mon illustre confrère le jugement des Messrs. De Queissat et qu’il ne leur reste d’autre parti à prendre que de passer dans un service étranger.

“To Benjamin Franklin from Jean-Baptiste Le Roy, 16 April 1778,” Founders Online, National Archives, [Original source: The Papers of Benjamin Franklin, vol. 26, March 1 through June 30, 1778, ed. William B. Willcox. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1987, pp. 301–302.] (10/04/2022)

My translation:

You know my illustrious colleague the judgment of the Messrs. De Queissat and that there is no other course for them to take than to transfer to a foreign service.

The endnotes of the said letter describe the whole “affair” better than I could, so I will quote the passage for you:

The Queyssat affair was a cause célèbre, which had been going on for years and continued into 1779. In 1775 the three Queyssat brothers, all nobles and officers or former officers, assaulted and almost killed a Bordeaux merchant called Damade (the name appears in various forms), and were duly convicted. The case was retried in Bordeaux and then in Toulouse, with the same outcome, and reopened in Paris; confrontation between aristocrats and a merchant aroused strong public feelings.

Endnotes of “To Benjamin Franklin from Jean-Baptiste Le Roy, 16 April 1778,” Founders Online, National Archives, [Original source: The Papers of Benjamin Franklin, vol. 26, March 1 through June 30, 1778, ed. William B. Willcox. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1987, pp. 301–302.] (10/04/2022)

Benjamin Franklin had actually witnessed the court proceedings in Paris.

#marquis de lafayette #la fayette #french history #american history #american revolution #history #letter #24 days of la fayette #lafayette's aide-de-camps #gabriel de queyssat #benjamin franklin #vicomte de noailles #jean-baptiste le roy #1778 #1779 #1775 #1780 #founders online #john e. hagey #general rochambeau

[usafphantom2]

VIDEO: F-104 takes off and makes a vertical rise over NASA facilities

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 04/29/23 - 12:00 in Military, Videos

The video released this week captures the F-104 Starfighter taking off and performing an incredible vertical climb at NASA's Shuttle Landing Facility, demonstrating the capacity and legacy of this iconic supersonic fighter.

The video reveals how the TF-104 takes off from NASA's Shuttle Landing Facility, where research and tests with advanced aircraft are often carried out.

After maintaining a low altitude over the 4,000 meters of length of the runway, the F-104 makes an impressive vertical climb, breaking through the cloud cover and reaching the clear sky.

The action camera in the fuel tank at the tip of the right wing captured the Starfighter as he ascended to the skies.

The Lockheed F-104 Starfighter is a supersonic jet fighter designed as a high-performance attack aircraft and interceptor.

Developed by Lockheed Corporation in the 1950s, the F-104 was in active service with several air forces around the world until the early 1980s.

NASA also operated a small fleet of several versions of the F-104 for supersonic flight tests and space flight programs until 1994.

The F-104 Starfighter was a revolutionary fighter for the time, but ended up being retired due to advances in aeronautical technology and the emergence of fourth and fifth generation fighters.

Tags: Military AviationLockheed F-104 StarfighterNASAVideo

Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. Uses Canon equipment during his photographic work throughout the world of aviation.

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[signalwatch]

Movies 2022 By the Numbers

For the most part, I use this blog to just keep track of the movies I've watched and jot down some thoughts on them.  There's no real reason for it, but I do it.  The PodCast is a lovely bit of product of this habit, and my desire to spend time chatting with pals.  

Since I have the blog, every year for the past few years I've logged how many movies I've watched, and looked at a few stats.  I'm not sure it's of any particular interest to anyone but myself, but there you have it.  

As always, you're welcome to review the spreadsheet yourself.  

So...  how many movies did we watch?

Total Number of Movies Watched

This includes movies watched more than once, which is only one movie, I believe.  Turning Red.  It's fun.  Watch it.

This year I watched 190 movies.

For Comparison:

in 2021 I watched 302 movies

in 2020 I watched 269 movies

in 2019 I watched 204 movies

in 2018 I watched 179 movies

A lot of factors went into this.  I was watching baseball and futbol and football.  I watched a LOT of television (including watching Inhumans TWICE), and it probably means I need to a do a post about all the @#$%ing TV I watched this year.  Plus, I was taking a class.  Less said about that, the better.

Percentage difference from prior years:

2021:  -45.53%

2020:  -34.42%

2019:  -7.11%

2018:  +5.96%

Genre

We continue to tweak genre a bit.  This year I actually broke superheroes into DC and Marvel, for example.  I continue to include neo-noir and borderline noir as noir.

I also lumped a *lot* stuff into "Holiday" movies.  And some Holiday stuff I called "Comedy" if it suited my needs, and at least one movie occurred during the holidays but I counted it as noir, I believe.  If this isn't perfect, well, you'll be fine.  This isn't for awards or money.

Adventure:                    13 -  6.84%

Animated Comedy:       01 -  0.53%

Comedy:                        27 -  14.21%

DC Superheroes:           04  -  2.11%

Marvel Superheroes:     13  -  6.84%

Disney:                          03  -  1.58%

Documentary:                13 -  6.84%

Holiday:                        19 -  10.00%

Horror:                          34 -  17.89%

Kids:                              01 -  0.53%

Musical:                        07 -  3.68%

Mystery:                        05 -  2.63%

Noir:                             26 -   13.68%

Sci-Fi:                           16 -   8.42%

I was honestly surprised at the percentage of Noir films.  I figured I was way behind this year.  I also will be dialing back how many horror movies I watch, by percentage, next year.  That was... a lot.

Total super-stuff was pretty high, especially considering I made my way through 3 or 4 Marvel TV shows and some DC stuff.  

By Decade

As I often say - I'm not particularly beholden to watching newer pictures.  Lemme just pull something off the shelf from any era.  I didn't watch any silent movies this year, I guess, so my 1920's viewing is not particularly great.

1930's:  06  - 3.16%

1940's:  18  - 9.47%

1950's:  15  - 7.89%

1960's:  05  - 2.63%

1970's:  18  - 9.47%

1980's:  33  - 17.37%

1990's:  19  - 10.00%

2000's:  11  - 5.79%

2010's:  12  - 6.32%

2020's:  53  - 27.89%

Watched By Month

I don't know what was going on in May.  I guess I went outside or something.

January:      22

February:    12 

March:        15

April:          18

May:           09

June:           11

July:            13

August:       13

September:  13

October:      26 - Horror movie season

November:  16

December:   22

Watched By Format

Austin Film Society:    02

Amazon:                      66

Apple+:                        01

BluRay:                        15

Criterion Channel:       10

Disney+:                      23

DVD:                           03

Hallmark (cable):         05 

HBOmax:                     27

Hulu:                            05

Netflix:                         04

Paramount+:                 02

Peacock:                       03

Roku:                            01

Showtime trial:             01

TBS (cable):                 01

TCM (cable):               18

Tubi:                             02

How Many Movies Did I See For the First Time?

Movies I saw for the first time:  115

That's 60.53% of the movies I saw were "new to me".  I think that's a pretty healthy percentage.

Or, another way, I only rewatched movies 39.47% of the time.  So I'm trying new things!

How Many "New" Movies Did I Watch?

I'm not going to the theater, so I'm basically calling a movie "new" if it's just been released to Digital, Disc or Streaming.  

I watched 41 "new" movies in 2022.  That's 21.58% of the total movies watched, or a little better than 1 in 5.

How Many Movies Did I watch for a PodCast?  

This year I watched 46 movies for the PodCast.  

Of those films, 24 were "new to me", ie: I had never seen them before.  That's just over 50%.

We covered 10 "new/ recent" movies on the podcast, or about 22%.  Which is way more than I figured.  Good on us.

How Many Movies Did We Watch for a Watch Party?

We watched 34 Movies for a Watch Party.  That's 17.89% of movies seen this year were in the company of pals.

Of the 34 movies, 16 were "new to me".  That's about 46% of the movies watched were something I took a gamble on and hadn't seen before.  

https://ift.tt/CWvNuLG

from The Signal Watch https://ift.tt/0L9vRcj

[f1]

Australia's last F1 world champion backs Oscar Piastri to win a title despite McLaren's issues

Australia’s last F1 world champion backs prodigious young gun Oscar Piastri to win a title despite McLaren's issues: ‘Everything he has ever put his bum in he has won' By Dan Cancian For Daily Mail Australia Published: 04:12 EDT, 26 March 2023 | Updated: 04:12 EDT, 26 March 2023 Formula 1 great Alan Jones has backed Oscar Piastri to become a world champion and believes the young rookie has already shown in his talent in a struggling McLaren. Since Jones claimed the world title in 1980 no other Australian has finished top of the drivers standings, but the 76-year-old is confident Piastri can emulate his triumph.  'I think he can go on to be world champion,' Jones said on Saturday. 'Every now and again someone comes along that has got an enormous amount of talent and I reckon he is one of those sorts of people.' A world champion in Formula 2 and Formula 3 in 2020 and 2021, Piastri has long been considered one of Formula 1's rising stars. Oscar Piastri has been backed to win a Formula 1 title by former world champion Alan Jones Piastri finished 15th in Saudi Arabia (above) after retiring in his debut in Bahrain  While success in junior series is hard to replicate in Formula 1, Jones noted Piastri's knack for winning races at every level he's competed means he will deliver results. 'Everything he has ever put his bum in, he has won and there are not too many people that can say that,' he said. 'He has certainly got the ability to go on and be a world champion.'  The 21-year-old replaced Daniel Ricciardo at McLaren after spending last season as the reserve driver for Alpine and was eager to keep expectations in check ahead of his debut season. His caution appears to have been justified, with the Woking team badly off the pace in the first two outings. Piastri was forced to retire in the season opener in Bahrain due to an electrical issue and finished 15th in Saudi Arabia, while teammate Lando Norris finished 17th in both races. Piastri and Norris are respectively second-last and bottom of the drivers' championship standings, but Jones believes his compatriot has already shown glimpses of his talent in a struggling car. 'He has had a little bit of bad luck, none of which was his doing,' Jones said. 'But he has certainly shown the sort of performances that we expected that he would, particularly the last one [the Saudi Arabia GP], I thought he drove particularly well. Alan Jones (left) and Damon Hill (right) have both been impressed with Piastri's debut Piastri is 19th in the drivers' standings after two races, with teammate Lando Norris (left) bottom of the table below him after finishing 17th in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia The McLaren has badly struggled for pace in the opening two races of the season  'He hasn’t driven anything for 12 months, so to come in after a 12 month lay-off and then go to Formula 1 and go to circuits he has never been to before, it’s a bit of a steep learning curve for him.' Former world champion Damon Hill echoed Jones' stance, insisting Piastri already looked at 'home' in Formula 1 just two races into his career. '[He has been] very solid, very professional and confident,' the 1996 world champion said. 'He does not look at all overawed by Formula 1. Oscar seems at home [in Formula 1], which is half the battle. He looks like he knows he should be there.' Share or comment on this article: Australia's last F1 world champion backs Oscar Piastri to win a title despite McLaren's issues via Formula One | Mail Online https://www.dailymail.co.uk?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

#F1 #Australia's last F1 world champion backs Oscar Piastri to win a title despite McLaren's issues #Formula 1

[al-ghoul]

my top 2022 movies

So I’ve decided to make a chart of best things I’ve watched this year, in ascending order. They are not necessarily of the highest quality: the only measurement is how much I enjoyed them.

30. The 355 (2022) 29. Suspiria (1977) 28. The Stranger (2022) 27. Barbarian (2022) 26. Fargo (1996) 25. The Forgiven (2021) 24. The Prophecy (1995)  23. The Black Phone (2021) 22. V/H/S 94 (2021) 21. The Devil Rides Out (1968) 20. Slash Back (2022) 19. Three Thousand Years Of Longing (2022) 18. The Changeling (1980) 17. Gunpowder Milkshake (2021) 16. Nightmare Alley (2021) 15. Crimes Of The Future (2022) 14. Bullet Train (2022) 13. Spree (2020) 12. Paranormal Activity: Next Of Kin (2021) 11. Infini (2015) 10. La Chiesa / The Church (1989) 09. The Abominable Dr. Phibes (1971) 08. The White Reindeer (1952) 07. The Gray Man (2022) 06. Wolfwalkers (2020) 05. Triangle (2009) 04. The Antenna (2019) 04. Guillermo del Toro's Pinnochio (2022) 03. Prey (2022) 02. The Secret Of Kells (2009) 01. The Tragedy Of Macbeth (2021)

Some dishonorable mentions: movies that impressed me by the sheer chaos so much I struggle to say wether I’ve enjoyed them or not, and refuse to give any rating to:

A Field In England (2013) (what a shitshow, affectionate) Nemesis (1992) (the fuck did I just see, slightly affectionate) Stalked (2019) (ten out of ten, triple A, very derogatory, best worst movie this year) The Lair (2022) (a shitshow, derogatory, worst fake accents award) Red Sands (2009) (”best” sPeCiAL eFfeCtS award, oh so derogatory)

PS: you still can send me numbers from 1 to 179 so I can elaborate on anything I’ve seen this year.

#movies

[wiiildrose-mixtapes]

Mixtape: Wink's covers

I made it first as a Spotify playlist so I didn't thought about how I would make it if I was going to make it elsewhere. But I think you can listen to it like this: 1980s 01. Sugar Baby Love 02. NAVY BLUE 03. BYE BYE BABY 04. DANCE WITH ME 05. Anata no Kata ni Hoho Umete 06. Ai ga Tomaranai ~Turn It Into Love~ 07. DING DING ~Koi Nara Hajimaru Futari no Train~ 08. Love in the First Degree ~Warui Anata~ 09. Cross My Broken Heart ~Yasashii Kei wo Odoritai~ 10. Namida wo Misenai de ~Boys Don't Cry~ 11. Only Lonely 12. Especially for You ~Yasashisa ni Tsutsumarete~ 13. Glass no Kokoro ~Heart of Glass~ 14. Oshare Dorobou 15. Hikitomenai de 16. Yasashiku Aishite... 17. Senaka Made 500 Miles 18. Special to Me 19. Aishiteru ~Never Stopped Loving You~ 20. In Your Letter 21. Yakan Hikou 22. Joanna 23. Oh My Love 24. Sexy Music 25. Yoru ni Hagurete ~Where Were You Last Night~ 26. Omoide Made Soba ni Ite ~Welcome to the Edge~ 27. Natsufuku no Juliette ~Dos Hombres~ 28. Jinsei Kurabu ~I'm in Mood for Dancing~ 29. Ano Natsu no Seagull ~Cherish~ 30. I'm Gonna Knock on Your Door 31. Mizu no Seiza 32. Kanashii Kareha 33. Warui Yume ~I Was Made for Dancing~ 34. Ame ni Kieta Hatsukoi 1990s 35. Fun Fun Fun 36. Yoru no Tsuki, Hiru no Tsuki 37. Mighty Mighty Love 38. Juunigatsu no Orihime 39. Ano Yoru e Kaeritai ~Step Back in Time~ 40. Yamiyo no Toubousha 41. Seikimatsu mo Heiki ~Do You Wanna Dance~ 42. Frou-Frou 43. Pierce no Shinsou ~We Can Make It~ 44. Like a Bird 45. Mirai Made Mattenai 46. Kiri no Rakuen ~THAT'S THE WAY (I Like It)~ 47. Furimukanai de 48. Romance no Hakobune 49. Real na Yume no Jouken 50. Mujitsu no Objet d'Art 51. Celebration 52. Setsuna Version 53. Only One 54. Tokei wo Tomete 55. Eien no Lady Doll ~Voyage Voyage~ 56. MOVIN' ON 57. Mikazuki no Yoru no Koibitotachi 58. JIVE INTO THE NIGHT ~Yaban na Yoru ni~ (HYPER J-EURO MIX) 59. AIN'T NOBODY ~Eien no Koibito~ 60. MY TURN ~Kanashimi Yori Shitataka ni~

#Mixtape #Mixtape: J-music #My mixtape #Wink #Cover

[crystalsenergy]

Alinhando as lições de vida com o seu Ser - Saturno conjunção Nodo Sul / oposição Nodo Norte | trânsito 🔮✨⚖

Saturno conjunção Nodo Sul

= Saturno oposição Nodo Norte

Neste período de Saturno em Aquário, este aspecto está impactando aqueles que possuem Nodo Sul em Aquário em seu mapa natal. São os nascidos entre:

06/01/1980 – 24/09/1981

21/10/1998 – 10/04/2000

A partir de 07/03/2023, Saturno entrará em Peixes então será a vez dos nascidos com Nodo Sul em Peixes a sentirem a manifestação do aspecto:

06/07/1978 – 05/01/1980

26/01/1997 – 20/10/1998

Este é um trânsito muito raro, que ocorre uma vez de 28 a 30 anos. Ocorre uma vez 28 anos, novamente 28 anos depois ocorre novamente. Esses 28-30 anos NÃO representa a idade que o nativo terá quando estiver esse aspecto. A data em que ocorrerá o aspecto depende de cada mapa natal.

É um aspecto extremamente poderoso que traz transformação. Nodo Sul e Saturno são ambos ligados à karma e aprendizado.

Saturno em trânsito CONJUNÇÃO Nodo Sul natal

Saturno em conjunção com o Nodo Sul natal é um momento de realização de propósitos maiores que envolvem o teu Ser Superior, situações que precisavam ocorrer para o desenvolvimento de sua individualidade podem vir à tona.

É um momento de bastante reflexão sobre quem você tem sido, sobre as suas responsabilidades em torno do seu DESTINO. Pode ser que você venha a refletir mais sobre os seus propósitos e o que deverá fazer daqui em diante.

Como Saturno traz dilemas e busca o amadurecimento do nativo - o que muitas vezes vem através de conflitos, problemas -, este pode significar um momento de muita divagação sobre quem você é no agora e quem foi no ontem (podendo, inclusive, ter um interesse maior em questões de suas vidas passadas ou das razões para você ser quem é).

De todo modo, esse é um momento para assumir as responsabilidades pelo que será feito daqui em diante, bem como a responsabilidade de ALINHAR o seu eu atual com o seu Self / Ser Superior, como preferir, conhecendo suas potencialidades e mergulhando mais em suas memórias, bloqueios e dificuldades.

Saturno em conjunção com o Nodo Sul pode também ser um momento de SENTIR NOVAMENTE/REVIVER situações envolvendo o seu posicionamento natal do Nodo Sul, a fim de fazer um "teste" ou verificação de como você tem vivido essa área e, até mesmo para ATIVAR determinadas coisas que antes eram inexploradas. Até mesmo porque vejo poucas pessoas estudando o seu Nodo Sul. Os efeitos disso pode ser de baixo desconhecimento de potenciais que estão guardados no fundo do seu ser e que vem de vidas passadas.

Saturno em trânsito em conjunção com o Nodo Sul natal traz um período de maior PRATICIDADE e REALIZAÇÃO em relação ao que você tem de características já aprendidas em outras vidas ou outras experiências. As coisas que já estão potencializadas, as características e habilidades já adquiridas, o que foi adquirido e aprendido tenderá a ser posto em prática durante este trânsito. É um momento em que Saturno lhe faz perceber as possibilidades que existem de crescimento do seu ser, da sua individualidade neste momento.

Necessidade que surge / aumenta de analisar o passado e quem você tem sido.

Fechamento de um ciclo com resultados positivos ou negativos, aprendendo lições ou acumulando mais para serem aprendidas em outro momento.

Nostalgias, sentimentos de querer voltar ao passado.

Mistura do sentimento de melancolia, necessidade de crescimento e rigidez com as lições 'já aprendidas' e habilidades já adquiridas pelo indivíduo

União de forças do signo e da casa posicionados em ambos os planetas, o que pode trazer uma reflexão / prática maior do que representa tal posicionamento. Exemplo: Nodo Sul em Aquário na 7ª casa e Saturno no momento transitando em Aquário na 7ª casa desta pessoa.

Neste exemplo haverá uma convergência, união das energias aquarianas sendo manifestadas por Saturno na 7ª casa com aquelas que a pessoa naturalmente tem consigo:

uma busca por independência maior na área dos relacionamentos amorosos e parcerias de um modo geral;

uma tendência a ser mais aberto e refletir sobre as dinâmicas que envolvem um relacionamento amoroso;

questões envolvendo trocas, aberturas, parcerias, relacionamentos de um modo geral.

Tudo isso será mais intensificado e neste momento de trânsito, a pessoa pode se sentir compelida a entender os relacionamentos na vida dela e a própria sociedade em si (dado que Aquário é mais impessoal) através de uma lente mais social, aberta, humanitária e ao mesmo tempo questionadora e distante:

As minhas relações tem correspondido ao que meu Ser deseja em sua essência?

Qual a contribuição social que eu tenho dado para essa área tão importante da existência humana, que é a dos relacionamentos interpessoais?

Outro exemplo que dou:

Saturno em Aquário transitando pela 9ª casa de uma pessoa que tem Nodo Sul em Aquário na 9ª casa no mapa natal.

Essa pessoa tende a ser alguém com uma mente extremamente aberta para o novo, buscando sempre conhecer sobre o mundo a sua volta e o funcionamento da sociedade. É alguém que de alguma forma pode buscar muito por "justiça", de uma forma saudável, otimista e visando a melhoria da humanidade, acreditando na capacidade das pessoas de mudarem.

Posicionamento de crenças, fé, mas não de uma forma religiosa, mas sim no campo das ideias: fé no saber, fé na humanidade de forma impessoal. Unindo este Nodo Sul ao Saturno em trânsito na 9ª casa do nativo, torna-se um momento de bastante reflexão sobre quem a pessoa tem sido nesta área: Quais as crenças que ela tem tido? Tais crenças / formas de pensar e ver a vida refletem quem ela é? Estão precisando de mudanças? Como está a sua fé em si mesmo? E a sua fé na vida? E o propósito de vida dela alinhado a este posicionamento, ela tem seguido?

Certamente surgirão sentimentos de melancolia, pois Saturno está na 9ª casa neste exemplo, trazendo para a pessoa uma aura de "responsabilização" pelo que ela é ao se pensar em seu Nodo Sul e, ao mesmo tempo, cobrança pelo que ainda precisa ser trabalhado (e é o que veremos abaixo):

Saturno em trânsito OPOSIÇÃO Nodo Norte natal

Podem vir à tona situações que precisam ocorrer para o desenvolvimento da sua individualidade.

Este é um trânsito que certamente traz incômodos. Incômodos em relação ao que o seu Ser reluta em alcançar. Nesta área, Saturno chega aqui trazendo necessidade de melhorar, crescer, mas isso não vem por meio de uma "conversa amigável", em que o diálogo ocorre com facilidade. Ao invés disso, é como se Saturno e o Nodo Norte falassem línguas diferentes e por não se entenderem, não fosse possível cada um compreender a essência das coisas.

Saturno demonstra de forma prática, ele evidencia os efeitos de você não estar seguindo com o aprendizado sobre si mesmo a fim de evoluir e alcançar o que o seu Nodo Norte deve alcançar. Lembrando que Nodo Norte é o que nos tira da zona de conforto, é o que tememos adentrar, e pode representar até mesmo assuntos/pessoas que teremos dificuldades em nossas vidas. Saturno vem, falando em uma língua que pode parecer "desarmônica" por ser diferente da que o seu Nodo Norte entende, passando a noção de que você tem que assumir as RESPONSABILIDADES de quem você deve ser, e não somente de quem é/tem sido. Saturno busca evidenciar que necessário o nativo olhar para si mesmo e ver que podem existir diversas coisas a serem melhoradas, e que o potencial está dentro de você.

Saturno vem demonstrar a necessidade de EQUILIBRAR o seu Ser com as coisas que você ainda precisa melhorar, com um lado de si que você resiste em tocar.

Em resumo, onde Saturno toca poderá haver um período de reavaliação, de testes, obstáculos, bloqueios. Em aspectos de conjunção, isso fica menos difícil, porque existe uma união de forças em comum caminhando para uma só linguagem. Ambos os signos/casas conversam. Existe dificuldade, mas é como se a saída pudesse ser encontrada com mais facilidade.

Quando estivermos diante de aspectos como o de oposição ou o de quadratura, as dificuldades vem com força á tona, pois não existe terreno muito fértil para o diálogo.

Existe tensão, desacordo. Saturno quer de um jeito, o Nodo quer de outro. E Nodo Norte já representa teimosia em nossas vidas, onde teimamos em querer mudar, onde o nosso ser vê somente defeitos e não coisas boas, úteis. Nodo Norte é o que nos tira de uma profunda zona de conforto.

Saturno vem desafiar você a sair dessa zona de conforto tentando ao máximo lhe mostrar os efeitos disso por meio de problemas aqui e ali ou de bloqueios, momentos de profunda reflexão.

#nodo norte #nodo sul #saturno em trânsito #saturno em aspecto #saturno #saturno conjunção nodo sul #saturno oposição nodo norte #saturno oposicao nodo norte #saturno conjuncao nodo sul #trânsito #astrologia

[bubbleblower]

Today in 'Correlation does not equal Causation but....'

In 2004 a study found (and was later corroborated in 2018) that complications during childbirth had significant correlation to chronic anxiety disorders.

"Furthermore, prenatal and perinatal complications (e.g., heavy bleeding, severe illness, hypertension, or excessive fluid retention) predict risk for childhood anxiety disorders, above-and-beyond the familial risk of parental psychopathology"

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7089570/

Anxiety disorders are currently the most common mental illness afflicting American citizens today and has shown to be even more common than average in people ages 18-35 (as of 2018 so people born between 1983-2000)

"Anxiety increased from 5.12% in 2008 to 6.68% in 2018 (p < 0.0001) among adult Americans. Stratification by age revealed the most notable increase from 7.97% to 14.66% among respondents 18–25 years old (p < 0.001), which was a more rapid increase than among 26–34 and 35–49 year olds (differential time trend p < 0.001). "

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7441973/#:~:text=Anxiety%20increased%20from%205.12%25%20in,time%20trend%20p%20%3C%200.001).

America drastically outpaces all other countries for anxiety diagnosis (see diagram)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1115900/adults-with-anxiety-disorders-in-countries-worldwide-by-gender/

In 1983 Ronald Regan drastically cut funding to public healthcare and deregulated the American Healthcare system

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/06/04/upshot/reagan-deregulation-and-americas-exceptional-rise-in-health-care-costs.amp.html

America's healthcare system rates very poorly among developed countries both in standards of care, and cost

https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2020/07/how-does-the-us-healthcare-system-compare-to-other-countries

I could not find many articles detailing the rise in rates of anxiety disorders that went back further than the early 2000s, but this study that started in 1980 shows a drastic rise in panic disorders beginning in about 1985. (See graphic)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0887618507001016

I also struggled to find articles specifically about the rates of complications during birth in America over decades, but the CDC shows a drastic rise of pregnancy related deaths that goes back to 1987(see graph) which we might infer that the rate of complications would mirror, since complications caused the deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/maternal-mortality/pregnancy-mortality-surveillance-system.htm

Again, Correlation does not equal Causation. It doesn't. But also Ronald Regan is once again the reason so many millenials have chronic anxiety.

#american healthcare #amercan healthcare system #ronald reagan #anti ronald reagan #anxiety #anxiety disorder #anxiety and depression #depression #mental heath support #mental health #taking a time machine back in time to kill ronald reagan #america 2022

[hiraharu]

140年以上の間、高度な製造技術をもとに靴を作り続けてきたメーカー、ムーンスター。長年蓄積してきた日本人の足型データはなんと26万人以上あり、商品企画から製造、検品に至るまで、ものづくりに一切の妥協を許さない”精品主義”を貫いています。

そんなムーンスターから新たに3種類の靴が仲間入りしました。スニーカー、サンダル、子ども用長靴です。

①スニーカー：SK SIGMA 1980年代に学生靴や作業靴として人気を呈した「ジャガーΣ（シグマ）04」。デザインはそのままにシルエットや素材、カラーリングを一新し作り上げたのが『SK SIGMA』です。真っ白の学生靴にΣ（シグマ）のロゴ。あの日に履いた懐かしい靴のデザインを思い出す方もいるのではないでしょうか。どこか懐かしさを装いながらも新しさを感じる一足です。 SK SIGMAを詳しくみる https://wazawaza.shop-pro.jp/?pid=167442871

②サンダル：ALLPE 介護用のリハビリシーンを想定して開発されたシューズをデイリーユースにリデザインしたALLPE（オルパ）です。ユニバーサルデザインの心地よさと機能性を引き継ぎ、デザインをし直したことで、ファッション性にも優れ、日常的に使いやすく、服にも合わせやすいALLPEが生まれました。 ALLPEを詳しくみる https://wazawaza.shop-pro.jp/?pid=167443109

③長靴：KIDS RAIN 子ども用の長靴「ロンプ」をルーツモデルとして再構築された『KIDS RAIN』。雨の日の子どもたちは大人の気持ちとは裏腹に、ワクワクして、傘をさして長靴を履いて外に行きたがりますよね。そして水の中もかまわずじゃぶじゃぶ進む。でも、すぐに雨に濡れて「冷たいよ～抱っこ～」なんて経験のある方も多いのではないでしょうか？ KIDS RAINは、子どもたちの足の作りにとことんより添い、履き心地や機能性はそのままに、普段使いに馴染む作りとなっています。これなら、雨の日でのお出かけも少しだけ楽しくなりそうですね。 KIDS RAINを詳しくみる https://wazawaza.shop-pro.jp/?pid=167443479

・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ ▼わざわざオンラインストア https://waza2.com/ ▼わざわざのパン・お菓子 https://kinarino-mall.jp/item-55763 #パンと日用品の店わざわざ #わざわざ #ムーンスター #スニーカー #サンダル #長靴

#etc

[vertus-fruits-et-legumes]

Voici une infographie illustrant la chronologie des lois d'amnistie votées au Sénégal depuis 1960: La chronologie des Lois d'Amnistie votées au Sénégal depuis 1960. Le Sénégal a connu plusieurs périodes de crise politique et sociale depuis son indépendance en 1960. Afin de rétablir la paix et la réconciliation nationale, le pouvoir législatif a voté à plusieurs reprises des lois d'amnistie qui ont permis d'effacer les condamnations pénales de certains acteurs politiques ou militaires impliqués dans ces crises. TELECHARGER ICI L'INFOGRAPHIE EN PDF ...... OU OU IMAGE JPG Infographie illustrant la chronologie des lois d'amnistie votées au Sénégal depuis 1960 : Colorful Modern Business Chronology Timeline Infographic par Kafunel Tv Officiel 1. Ordonnance n° 60-32 du 18 octobre 1960: Infographie des lois d'amnistie au Sénégal depuis 1960 - Amnistie pour les infractions commises lors des incidents de Tivaouane en juin 1959 et ceux de Fatick en juillet 1960. 2. Loi d’amnistie de 1964: - Contexte politique ou sécuritaire. - Pardonne certaines infractions. 3. Loi d’amnistie de 1967: - Adoptée pour oublier des moments troubles de l'histoire. 4. Loi d’amnistie de 1981: Direct du Conseil constitutionnel, le contrôle des parrainages se poursuit - Nouvelle amnistie pour des événements spécifiques. 5. Loi d’amnistie de 1988: - Pardonne des infractions antérieures. 6. Loi d’amnistie de 2004: - Couvre une période allant du 1er janvier 1983 au 31 décembre 2004. Voici une chronologie des principales lois d'amnistie adoptées au Sénégal depuis 1960 : Lois d'amnistie au Sénégal depuis 1960 - Une chronologie - 1963 : Loi n°63-22 du 19 février 1963 portant amnistie des infractions commises à l'occasion des événements survenus au Sénégal du 17 décembre 1962 au 5 février 1963. Cette loi concerne les membres du Parti du Regroupement Africain (PRA), un parti d'opposition qui avait tenté de renverser le président Léopold Sédar Senghor par la force. - 1988 : Direct du Conseil constitutionnel, le contrôle des parrainages se poursuit 1 Loi n°88-04 du 26 janvier 1988 portant amnistie des infractions commises à l'occasion des événements survenus au Sénégal du 14 février 1988 au 28 février 1988. Cette loi concerne les partisans du Parti Démocratique Sénégalais (PDS), un parti d'opposition qui avait contesté les résultats des élections législatives et présidentielles de 1988, marquées par des fraudes et des violences. - 1991 : Loi n°91-05 du 6 février 1991 portant amnistie des infractions commises à l'occasion des événements survenus au Sénégal du 23 juin 1991 au 31 juillet 1991. Cette loi concerne les militaires impliqués dans le coup d'Etat manqué du 23 juin 1991 contre le président Abdou Diouf, ainsi que les civils qui leur ont apporté leur soutien. - 2004 : Infographie des lois d'amnistie au Sénégal depuis 1960 Loi n°2004-19 du 15 mars 2004 portant amnistie des infractions commises à l'occasion des événements survenus au Sénégal entre le 1er janvier 1983 et le 31 décembre 2004. Cette loi concerne les membres du Mouvement des Forces Démocratiques de Casamance (MFDC), un mouvement séparatiste qui lutte pour l'indépendance de la région sud du Sénégal depuis les années 1980, ainsi que les forces de sécurité qui leur ont fait face. - 2016 : Loi n°2016-10 du 5 avril 2016 portant amnistie des infractions commises à l'occasion des événements survenus au Sénégal entre le 22 juin 2011 et le 20 mars 2016. Cette loi concerne les partisans du président Abdoulaye Wade, qui avait tenté de se représenter pour un troisième mandat en violation de la Constitution, et qui avait fait face à une forte contestation populaire et à une coalition d'opposition menée par Macky Sall, son ancien Premier ministre et successeur à la tête de l'Etat. TELECHARGER ICI L'INFOGRAPHIE EN PDF ...... OU OU IMAGE JPG Direct du Conseil constitutionnel, le contrôle des parrainages se poursuit_www.kafunel.com journée décisive ce 2 janvier 2024 →A lire aussi

Amnistie pour la période 2021-2024 : Macky Sall veut-il effacer les traces de sa gestion controversée ? (Analyse ) Ces lois d'amnistie ont été adoptées dans un souci de pacification et de dialogue, mais elles ont aussi suscité des critiques et des controverses, notamment de la part des victimes et des défenseurs des droits humains, qui y voient une forme d'impunité et une atteinte à la justice. Quel est votre avis sur ces lois d'amnistie ? Pensez-vous qu'elles sont nécessaires pour garantir la stabilité et la démocratie au Sénégal, ou qu'elles sont contraires aux principes de l'Etat de droit et de la mémoire historique ?