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#& lead a steady decline post release for a good 2 months
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Q2 BizBuySell Report Shows Continued Increase in Small Business Acquisitions
The second quarter of 2023 was interesting. Typically, the summer months, especially July, are slow. However, this year, our firm saw an increase in business owners reaching out to learn about selling their business.
While interest rates continue to climb and put pressure on the selling prices, the number of businesses listed for sale continues to grow.
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Q2 BizBuySell Report Shows Continued Increase in Small Business Acquisitions
BizBuySell has recently released their insight report for the second quarter of 2023. These reports are helpful to business owners and potential buyers as they project market trends and explain what was on the rise and what declined over the past three months. To see the full report, you can visit BizBuySell’s website. Here is an overview of what was presented and where market trends are leading as we progress through 2023.
Full report: https://www.bizbuysell.com/insight-report/
Overview
The most important statistic from the last three months is that business acquisitions increased by 8% versus just 4.8% in the first quarter of the year. This continues the positive trend that buyers and sellers are adjusting to an environment with higher interest rates.
However, it’s important to note that while acquisitions are trending upward, sale prices have continued to trend downward. In the second quarter, the median business sale price dropped 14% to $300,000 largely due to higher interest rates.
While the decline in the sales prices may seem like bad news to buyers, this decline proves that sellers need to get more creative with their offers. For instance, sellers may have to offer financing or increase the monthly rent on the buyer’s lease.
Overview of business sales and listing information for Sacramento, CA
In the Sacramento, Arden-Arcade, and Roseville, California areas, the median asking price continued to increase. The median asking price rose to $399,000, and listings increased from 253 to 264. Median revenue also increased significantly from $550,000 to $609,445.
Here are 3 Key Takeaways from BizBuySell’s report:
1. Seller financing continues to play an important role.
With higher interest rates, many buyers and lenders require some form of seller financing. This can seem challenging for sellers as only 22% plan to offer it, while 70% of potential buyers intend to ask sellers to finance at least part of the deal.
However, sellers need to stay flexible and consider adding financing to their deals. Leaving out this crucial component can reduce the amount of potential buyers and, in some cases, be a deal breaker for lenders, as many lenders are beginning to require at least a 10% note from sellers. This is especially important to buyer and seller timelines. As roughly 28% of business owners intend to sell by 2024, and buyers continue to increase their desire to purchase, seller financing continues to play an impactful role.
In good news for sellers, because interest rates are on the rise, so are the rates on seller financing, allowing sellers to enjoy tax benefits and meet buyer demands as well.
2. Restaurants show a steady comeback, while the retail sector shows a decline.
The restaurant sector has been making a slow but steady comeback post-pandemic. Restaurants saw a 10.3% increase in transitions from last year, and sale prices increased 15.9% from the previous quarter and 6.7% from the previous year. While these numbers are positive, the report indicates that many restaurants are still struggling, offering purchasing opportunities from competitors.
While restaurant numbers have increased, retail numbers are showing a decline. 2022 showed promising numbers post-pandemic, but with more consumers purchasing online and higher interest rates and inflation, these numbers have slowed in 2023. According to the report, retail transactions declined 12.3%, sale prices dropped 22%, revenue slipped 24%, and cash flow fell 9.4%.
3. Buyers continue to seek independence with entrepreneurship.
The number of interested buyers looking to leave their traditional jobs and embrace entrepreneurship continues to rise. The report indicates that 46% of surveyed buyers want to leave their current position to be more in control of their future. This is good news for the baby boomer generation looking to exit the market, even though some want to reinvest in other markets.
It’s also important to note that service businesses made up the largest number of companies for sale recently. Almost half of the sales recorded in the second quarter were service-based businesses, and 59% of surveyed buyers indicated they were interested in purchasing a service-based business.
Outlook for the remainder of 2023:
The BizBuySell report indicates that interest rates continue to be the most significant factor in the small business market. Some sectors are seeing a return to the workforce, while others are still experiencing stagnant or declining numbers. However, there are a few positive notes to consider:
The baby boomer generation continues to exit the market. According to the report, 47% of sellers surveyed marked retirement as their reason for exiting, while 34% indicated burnout. As this age group continues to leave the market, it creates new opportunities for those looking to enter.
As mentioned, seller financing should be considered. This can be a great selling point to buyers looking for interest rate relief and impact new requirements from lenders.
Next Steps
As market conditions continue to change and evolve, and as more buyers indicate their desire to purchase a business, it’s essential to fully understand the value of your company. Are you looking for a Sacramento business broker? Reach out today for a free consultation.
source https://www.sacramentobusinessbrokers.com/post/q2-bizbuysell-report-shows-continued-increase-in-small-business-acquisitions
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ratcorvo · 4 years
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not to be That person but i literally cannot comprehend what has going through nd’s marketing team when they agreed to kill That major character off. the only way it makes sense is that they intended for tlou2 to be the last one in the entire franchise but - not only was a tlou hbo series announced - that - and how it was executed so early in the story - is so. confusing to me bc? as someone whose dabbled in pr and marketing? what was the stratergy you thought would work? im? hello? did the writers work with the pr team? did nd HAVE a pr team during production? hello? HELLO?
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webmarket01 · 4 years
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Top 8 Tips to Lose Weight During Menopause — Diet Doctor
New Post has been published on https://weightlosshtiw.com/top-8-tips-to-lose-weight-during-menopause-diet-doctor/
Top 8 Tips to Lose Weight During Menopause — Diet Doctor
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Are you a woman in your mid-40s to mid-60s? Have you found that your belly is getting thicker? Are you gaining weight no matter what you do?
Maybe you’ve been dieting and exercising but the pounds are stubbornly hanging on?
We’re here to help.
This guide tells you what you need to know about menopause, plus how to manage (and potentially lose) weight during the menopause transition. In short, a low-carb diet and certain lifestyle changes can greatly help.
Millions of women around the globe are currently going through “the change.” When adding the years lived after age 60 — called postmenopause — it’s estimated that close to 1 billion women in the world today are going through menopause or are postmenopausal.
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Given that most women spend one-third of their lives in this non-reproductive state, it helps to understand what is going on with your metabolism and hormones.
What changes can you make that will help prevent or even reverse any menopausal weight gain? How can you best protect your health?
Here are our top 8 tips:
For more details about what happens during menopause and why these eight tips can help, read on.
First, what is menopause?
Menopause marks the end of a woman’s menstrual cycles. It is defined as a full 12 months without a menstrual period for women over the age of 45.2 While the average age in North America is around 52, the hormonal changes can start in a woman’s mid-40s and last into her 60s.3
Research shows that the timing of menopause is a complex mix of genetics, ethnicity, geography, socio-economic status, and lifestyle factors. 4
The symptoms of menopause are well known: hot flashes, night sweats, mood changes, brain fog, headache, disrupted sleep, vaginal dryness, bloating, and more. Unfortunately, weight gain and increased body fat, especially around the abdomen, are very common complaints.5
It’s estimated that most women, without changing anything in their diet or lifestyle, gain an average of 2 to 5 pounds during the menopausal transition. However, some gain much more than this.6
Hormonal changes
Why do these symptoms and weight gain happen? Blame your hormones.
A woman’s reproductive hormones change dramatically at menopause: estrogen and progesterone decrease; follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH) increase —and FSH stays elevated for the rest of a woman’s life. But these are not the only hormones that change.7
The change in estrogen is the one thought to be related to most of the symptoms of menopause. Secreted from the follicles of a woman’s ovaries, and called estradiol, or E2, it declines because no more eggs are being released, no more follicles being developed.
The decline of estrogen can be erratic. About one-third of women first experience a sharp rise in E2 in their mid-40s (called perimenopause) and then a sharp decline. Others just have a steady, slow decline. But by the time of the last menstrual period, all women have experienced a large decrease in estrogen levels. 8
Also related to weight gain, especially around the middle, some women during menopause experience a significant increase in the secretion of the stress hormone cortisol, especially during the night.9
Why cortisol secretion increases significantly for some but not all women is not fully known. It may be aging, biology, or the result of poor sleep due to night-time hot flashes and night sweats.10
Cortisol increase may also be due in part to menopause occurring at a stressful time of life, such as many women being sandwiched between teenage children and aging parents, working full-time, experiencing financial or relationship stress or the loss of loved ones.11
In short, however, these dramatic hormonal changes of menopause impact a woman’s metabolism, her body composition, and, all too often, her weight.
The weight-loss challenge of menopause
Losing weight can be hard for anyone. Do menopausal women have an especially tough time?
While most women believe it’s definitely more difficult for them to lose weight during “the change,” among researchers, it is a bit controversial whether or not menopausal women face unique weight-loss challenges.
Some studies have suggested that women’s weight gain in midlife is simply a factor of aging — which impacts both sexes — more than menopausal changes in hormones.12
Others note, however, that declining estrogen at menopause decreases women’s energy needs, slows down metabolism, and shifts body-fat accumulation from the hips to the abdomen.13
These factors are part of a number of metabolic and body composition changes that likely set women up for greater challenges losing weight, including:
Loss of muscle mass, increased body fat
At the start of the menopause transition, a woman’s rate of fat gain doubles and her lean muscle mass declines. This phenomenon, researchers say, is related to hormonal changes of menopause and not simply age. It lasts until about two years after the final menstrual period and then stabilizes.14
Sarcopenic obesity
Loss of muscle mass and reduced muscle strength combined with increased fat has a specific name, sarcopenic obesity. This is a new field of study, with a number of challenges in definitions and consistent research approaches.
However, there is an emerging consensus that sarcopenic obesity is associated with a number of health problems, including weakness and falls, reduced mobility, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and higher rates of death from all causes.15
Insulin resistance
Higher and higher insulin levels, called hyperinsulinemia, lead the body to ignore insulin’s signals, creating insulin resistance. When insulin is high, fat stays locked in cells and cannot be burned as easily for fuel.16
Insulin resistance has been shown to increase during menopause and may be caused by the loss of ovarian function and declining estrogen levels.17
Metabolic syndrome
When a collection of concerning health measurements come together — insulin resistance, obesity, and blood lipid issues — this is called metabolic syndrome. Having this collection of risk factors puts people at higher risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes.
Unfortunately, menopause increases the risk of developing metabolic syndrome.18
Metabolic syndrome in women is present if three or more of the following five criteria are met: waist circumference over 35 inches, blood pressure over 130/85 mmHg, fasting triglyceride (TG) level over 150 mg/dl, fasting high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level less than 50 mg/dl and fasting blood sugar over 100 mg/dl.19
Resting energy expenditure
The loss of muscle mass, the decline in estrogen, and the increase in body fat create another problem: a woman’s resting energy expenditure (the speed of her metabolism) goes down. This naturally happens to everyone with advancing age, but menopause itself amplifies the process.20
8 top tips for managing weight at menopause
Has reading this far made you depressed and discouraged? Don’t be. While you cannot prevent menopause, you can prevent some of its negative health impacts on diet and lifestyle changes.
Remember, however, good health is more than simply a number on the scale. As we have noted in other places on our site, you do not have complete control over how much weight you lose, how fast you lose it, and what body parts you lose it from. Managing these expectations is part of long-term success. Make sure you read our guide on setting expectations.
This content was originally published here.
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its-veso · 5 years
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GBP/USD Forecast May 20-24 – Pound plunges on trade tensions, Brexit concerns
GBP/USD[1] posted sharp losses for a second straight week. The pound fell 2.1% and touched its lowest level since mid-January. Key events include inflation and retail sales data. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
In the U.K., GDP reports were mixed. Monthly GDP declined in March by 0.1%, above the estimate of 0.0%. There was better news from the quarterly indicator. Preliminary GDP for Q1 came in at 0.5%, matching the forecast. This was up from final GDP in Q4, which climbed 0.2%. Manufacturing Production remained steady at 0.9% in March, crushing the estimate of 0.1%. On the Brexit front, there are rising concerns that Prime Minister May will fail to pass a withdrawal agreement through parliament. This means that a no-deal scenario remains on the table, which could severely damage the British economy. Prime Minister May’s talks with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn proved inconclusive, and May’s days as prime minister may be numbered. British employment numbers were softer than expected. Wage growth slowed to 3.2%, down from 3.4% a month earlier. Unemployment rolls dropped to 24.7 thousand, above the estimate of 24.4 thousand.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China shot up last week, boosting the safe-haven U.S. dollar. The U.S. and China exchanged tariffs on each other products, dampening hopes for a trade deal and weighing on risk appetite. Nervous investors have been dumping equities in favor of safe-haven assets, such as the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. On Friday, the U.S. raised tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, from 10% to 25%. The move was announced a week ago, triggering sharp declines in the equity markets. The Chinese response was vigorous, as China retaliated with tariffs on $60 billion of U.S products. Although the U.S.and China are scheduled to continue trade talks, investors are wary after the latest tariff battle.
GBP/USD daily graph with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:
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CB Leading Index: Monday, 23:30. The Conference Board index is composed of 7 leading indicators. In February, the indicator posted a decline of 0.4%.
Inflation Report Hearings: Tuesday, 8:30. BoE Mark Carney will testify before the Treasury Committee on inflation and the economic outlook. If Carney’s comments are more hawkish than expected, the pound could gain ground.
CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Tuesday, 10:00. Manufacturing orders decreased in April, with a reading of -5. This was well off the forecast of 3. Another soft reading is expected in May, with an estimate of -6.
Inflation Data: Wednesday, 8:30. CPI, the primary gauge of consumer spending, is expected to climb to 2.2% in April, after posting two successive gains of 1.9%. With inflation close to the BoE target of 2.0%, there is less pressure on rate-setters to change current interest rate levels. Core CPI is expected to climb from 1.8% to 1.9%.
Retail Sales: Friday, 8:30. Retail sales has been showing sharp swings, making it accurate estimates difficult. In March, the indicator jumped to 1.1%, compared to a gain of 0.4% in February. The April release is next.
CBI Realized Sales: Friday, 10:00. Sales volume soared to 13 in April, its highest level since November. Will the positive trend continue in May?
* All times are GMT
GBP/USD Technical analysis
Technical lines from top to bottom:
With the pound dropping sharply last week, we begin at lower levels:
1.3170 was a swing high in early November.
1.3070 was a high point in mid-November.
The round number of 1.30 follows. 1.2910 (mentioned last [2]week[3]) is next.
1.2850 capped recovery attempts in late November.
1.2728 was active in the first half of January.
1.2660 is the next support level. 1.2590 was a swing low in September 2017.
Lower, 1.25 is a round number and also worked as support in early 2017. Further down, 1.2420 and 1.2330 are notable.
I am bearish on GBP/USD
The pound has slipped 2.4% in the month of May, and investors will be hard pressed to find reasons to buy cable. It remains unclear what will happen with Brexit, as parliament remains deeply divided on how to proceed. The U.S economy remains in excellent shape, and the safety of the U.S. dollar could continue to attract nervous investors.
Further reading:
Safe trading!
Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs[4]
References
^ GBP/USD (www.forexcrunch.com)
^ last  (www.forexcrunch.com)
^ eek (www.forexcrunch.com)
^ Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs (www.forexcrunch.com)
from Forex Crunch http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ForexCrunch/~3/Pg8ilEMwyTs/
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quitblow5-blog · 5 years
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Stocks Mixed On Staffing, Shutdown Fears; Nike Boosts Dow Jones
Stocks jumped out of the start gate, then quickly turned mixed Friday. Nike (NKE) buoyed the Dow Jones industrial average, amid concerns over a shutdown in Washington and a wave of selling that dragged global markets lower.
X
Nike scrambled higher as analysts upgraded the stock following Thursday's earnings report. Perrigo (PRGO) tanked after receiving a $1.9 billion tax bill from Irish regulators. Among the largest early gains were China's NetEase (NTES) and Nike retail partner Foot Locker (FL). Facebook (FB) lagged its FANG stock brethren following an analyst price target cut.
The Dow Jones industrial average trimmed its early gain to 0.5%, as more than two thirds of the Dow components advanced, headed by Nike. The S&P 500 narrowed its advance to 0.2%. Nike led, Perrigo lagged at either end of the S&P 500.
The Nasdaq Composite shed its early gain, and slipped 0.4%. NetEase led the Nasdaq 100 by a wide margin, apparently following China regulatory approval of new video games. WorkDay (WDAY), BioMarin (BMRN) and Illumina (ILMN) posted the index's widest early losses.
The Dow Jones industrial average remained on track toward its worst week since February, and the Nasdaq's correction on Thursday dipped below 20% and crossed the bear-market boundary. The Dow Jones industrial average ended Thursday down 5.2% so far for the week. That put the Dow more than 10% lower thus far for December. The S&P 500's 5.1% weekly loss puts it down 10.6% for December. Both indexes are on track to log their worst month since February 2009 -- near the lowest point of the Great Recession.
The Nasdaq ended Thursday a 5.5% decline for the week, deepening December's decline to nearly 11%. That would be the Index's worst monthly loss since October 2008.
GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders A Little Light
The Commerce Department revised its estimate for third quarter GDP growth to 3.4%, a notch below its prior 3.5% estimate and below forecasts for 3.5%. The GDP price index growth inched up to 1.8%, from the department's prior 1.7% view. Estimates called for a steady 1.7% gain. Consumer spending came in at 3.5%, vs. the 3.6% prior reading and estimates for no change.
Durable goods orders rose 0.8% in November, rebounding from October's 4.4% decline, although stopping short of the 1.4% advance projected by economists. Minus transportation, orders were down 0.3%, vs. views for a 0.3% increase. Orders for core capital goods fell 0.6%, vs. a flat tally for October and projections for a 0.3% advance.
White House Resignation Rattles Markets
Lawmakers were locked in a standoff as the U.S. government approached a midnight budget deadline. Without a signed budget deal, the government would go into a partial shutdown, idling some federal offices and workers.
Funding over a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border is the sticking point. The House approved a $5.7 billion measure that funds a wall. The item has so far not found sufficient support to pass a Senate vote.
The sudden announcement of Defense Secretary James Mattis to resign in February rattled U.S. allies and raised concerns regarding White House cabinet staffing. Mattis resigned following White House decisions to pull U.S. troops out of Syria and Afghanistan.
Oil Prices Hit 15-Month Low
Oil prices are suffering their worst weekly losses since January 2016. West Texas Intermediate fell another 4.8% on Thursday, to below $46 a barrel. That put prices down more than 10% for the week and testing a low from September 2017. WTI traded 0.5% lower on Friday, holding just above $45. Brent crude fell 1.8%, to below $54.
Oil investors will be watching Baker Hughes (BHGE) weekly rig count, due out at 1 p.m. ET, to see whether weak prices have led producers to curtail any drilling activity.
Japan, India Take Steep Dives; China Mixed
Global markets posted broad losses Friday, driving bear markets deeper in China and Germany, and fast-forwarding Japan's correction to near the bear market threshold.
The Shanghai Composite ended down 0.8% Friday and with a 0.3% loss for the week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.5% in Friday's session, narrowing its decline for the week to 1.3%. Both benchmarks are in bear markets.
In Japan, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 carved a 1.1% loss. Hurtling 5.7% lower for the week, the index has now erased all of its gains since September 2017, and is approaching bear market status, almost 18% below its October high.
The Sensex index tracking activity on India's Bombay Stock Exchange dived 1.9% Friday. The index has been in an uptrend since late October.
In Europe, stocks battled moderate losses near midday. The CAC-40 in Paris was down 0.6%, London's FTSE 100 slumped 0.4% and Frankfurt's DAX had fallen 0.3%. For the week, the CAC-40 was down 3.9%, the FTSE 100 showed a 1.3% loss and the DAX was 2.6% lower. The DAX has been in a bear market since early December.
Dow Jones: Nike Gets Digital Boost
Dow Jones stock Nike swooshed almost 8% higher to lead the Dow and S&P 500 in premarket trade. JPMorgan and Pivotal Research both upgraded the stock, after the athletic wear icon reported a 13% earnings gain, vs. forecasts for a mild slip. Revenue jumped 14%, helped by digital sales. Management said it was possible that digital sales could eventually become a majority of the business.
Nike shares have fallen in five of the past six sessions, leaving the stock well below its converged 10- and 40-week moving averages.
Stocks: NetEase, Tencent Jump; Perrigo Tumbles
NetEase jumped nearly 6% in early trade. Reuters reported late Thursday that China regulators may have approved some new video game releases. Gaming rival Tencent Holding (TCEHY) also popped more than 5%.
Generic drug maker Perrigo crumbled 10% before the open. Irish officials assessed a $1.8 billion tax charge related to the company's $6.7 billion tax inversion takeover of Ireland's Elan in 2013. The charge was tied to Elan's sale of multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri in 2013 to Biogen.  Perrigo said it would appeal the decision.
Among FANG stocks, Alphabet (GOOGL) led in early trade with a modest, 0.4% gain. Facebook lagged the group, down 1.1% after Needham trimmed the stock's price target to 170, from 215. The note cited rising taxation concerns in Europe, as well as weakening economic growth.
YOU ALSO MIGHT LIKE:
The Big Picture: Bears Rule! Nasdaq Correction Tops 20%
It's Not Just A Shutdown: Wall Street Fears A Wounded Trump
Not Every Stock Market Follow-Through Works: 2 Red Flags To Watch For
Dow Jones Futures: This Often Happens After A Sharp Stock Market Correction
Source: https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stock-futures-stocks-dow-jones-3/
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Real Time Economics: Yes, the Economy Is Slowing
New Post has been published on https://financeguideto.com/awesome/real-time-economics-yes-the-economy-is-slowing/
Real Time Economics: Yes, the Economy Is Slowing
This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.
Brexit, GDP, yield curves, Fed speeches, trade talks … Buckle up, this week could get interesting. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.
DANGER ZONE
Let’s hope this week is better than last. Friday closed out with reports depicting factory output in the eurozone fell in March at the most wonderful pace in six years and U.S. manufacturing activity slid to its lowest level in virtually two years. The drumbeat of unsettling news drove the yield on 10 -year Treasury notes below that of three-month bills for the first time since 2007. That situation, known as an “inverted” yield curve, has preceded every U.S. recession since 1975 and is viewed by many investors as a dependable predictor of downturns, Paul Kiernan reports.
More on the yield curve: The WSJ’s James Mackintosh writes that while the yield curve is the best forecasting tool for recessions, it’s not rock-solid. Recession might be on the way, but so far it’s just telling us that the economy is weakening–and we already knew that.
SOFT LANDING?
This week brings fourth-quarter gross domestic product reads from the U.S ., U.K ., France and Canada. The U.S ., which releases a revised estimation Thursday, is of special concern to investors looking for signs a slowdown in global growth is worsening, Akane Otani and Joe Wallace report. The Bureau of Economic Analysis in February said U.S. GDP advanced at a 2.6% pace at the end of 2018. That seems optimistic now: Macroeconomic Advisers is tracking 2 %, JPMorgan Chase is down to 1.8%. The WSJ consensus is 2.4%.
In one sign of the growing cynicism, merchants have begun betting the U.S. Federal Reserve will not only have to hold rates steady but lower them to support the economy. Federal-funds futures on Friday demonstrated the market pricing in a 56% chance of at the least one rate cut in 2019, compared with 11% one month ago, according to CME Group.
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for March is out at 10:30 a.m. ET.
U.K. lawmakers are due to vote on whether to hold a series of “indicative” elections on economic and political ties to the EU that could ultimately lead to Prime Minister Theresa May losing control of the Brexit process and even her position.
The Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren speaks at a finance meeting in Hong Kong at 8: 30 p.m. ET.
TOP STORIE
TO RAISE OR NOT TO RAISE
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said Monday he doesn’t expect an interest-rate increase in the U.S. until next year, probably in the second half. “It’s a good time to stop, intermission, seem and see how things are going to progress, and be cautious, ” he said at an investment meeting in Hong Kong. Mr. Evans is forecasting a relatively healthy 1.75% to 2% pace of growth this year. But there are caveats: “At the moment, the risks from the downside scenarios loom larger than those from the upside ones.”
THAT IS THE QUESTION
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the central bank may yet create rates this year. “My current view is that, at most, one rate hike this year, and one in 2020, is appropriate, and my stance will be guided by data as they come in and events as they unfold, ” he said Monday in London.
“I still ensure the outlook as positive, and the economy continues to grow in what is on pace to be the longest economic expansion in our history, ” he added.
SMALL REPRIEVE
German business sentiment picked up in March following six straight months of decline. The Ifo Institute said Monday that its business climate index rose to 99.6 from a revised 98.7 in February, led by an improved outlook in the services sector. In manufacturing, the business climate weakened once again as the high expectations component make its lowest level since November 2012, Nina Adam reports.
PARTICIPATION TROPHY
The U.S. labor-force participation rate has defied predictions of demographic-driven declines thanks to a strong economy that is pulling in and retaining more employees. In merely the past six months, the increasing numbers of people outside the labour force has fallen by 1 million, the largest such decline on record, Nick Timiraos and Sarah Chaney report.
The rate’s trajectory from here will have big implications for a range of issues, including how fast the economy can grow, how much inflation it generates and whether the Fed will continue to feel comfy keeping interest rates so low. With more people in the labour force than expected, the economy might be able to grow faster without pushing up inflation in a way that would warrant interest rate increases.
THE MOORE THE MERRIER
President Trump said he would nominate former campaign adviser Stephen Moore to serve on the Fed’s board of governors. Verification of Mr. Moore, a commentator on CNN, would bring a more partisan political advocate to a Fed board typically inhabited by technocratic policy veterans. He has veered from criticizing the Fed’s easy-money policies under President Obama, to opposing the Fed’s moves to tighten policy after Mr. Trump’s election, Nick Timiraos reports. In recent months, Mr. Moore has echoed the president’s complaints about the Fed. “The Fed is a disaster, ” Mr. Moore said in a Journal interview last December. “We should have a discussion in this country about whether we need a Fed.”
RED SEA
The U.S. economy is apparently slowing in the aftermath of massive fiscal stimulus. The U.S. budget gap widened 39% in the first five months of the fiscal year as tax revenues held steady and federal spending increased. Higher spending on health care, the military and tariff-assistance programs for farmers pushed the deficit to a record $234 billion in February, 9% higher than the same period a year earlier, Kate Davidson reports.
TWEET OF THE DAY
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WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING
The minimum wage debate furies on: The federal minimum wages rose to $7.25 from $5.15 during the Great Recession.”[ W] e find that binding minimum wage increases had significant, negative effects on the employment and income growth of targeted workers . …[ O] ur estimates suggest that this period’s minimum wage increases reduced aggregate employment rates by at the least half of a percentage point in states that were bound by the federal minimum wage increases, ” Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Wither write in the Journal of Public Economics.
Why is it so hard to use big data to improve economic measuring? “Privately collected big data from firms like Visa, JPMorgan Chase, supermarket scanners and health insurance companies can be an incredibly rich source of information on the income and spending of households, the revenues and expenditures of business, and the prices and quality of products. However, difficulties related to both interpretations and access remain significant barriers to properly employ such data, ” Finn Schuele and David Wessel write in a summary of a recent Brookings panel discussion.
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To add to your Google Calendar on desktop, click here. To are in addition to your Google calendar app on mobile, click here. If you prefer to opinion the calendar use a web browser, with the capabilities of adding select Real Time Economics entries to your calendar, click here. And here’s our how-to.
Let us know what you think. This is a pilot project, so we’d appreciate your feedback.
Read more: blogs.wsj.com
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Q2 BizBuySell Report Shows Continued Increase in Small Business Acquisitions
The second quarter of 2023 was interesting. Typically, the summer months, especially July, are slow. However, this year, our firm saw an increase in business owners reaching out to learn about selling their business.
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Q2 BizBuySell Report Shows Continued Increase in Small Business Acquisitions
BizBuySell has recently released their insight report for the second quarter of 2023. These reports are helpful to business owners and potential buyers as they project market trends and explain what was on the rise and what declined over the past three months. To see the full report, you can visit BizBuySell’s website. Here is an overview of what was presented and where market trends are leading as we progress through 2023.
Full report: https://www.bizbuysell.com/insight-report/
Overview
The most important statistic from the last three months is that business acquisitions increased by 8% versus just 4.8% in the first quarter of the year. This continues the positive trend that buyers and sellers are adjusting to an environment with higher interest rates.
However, it’s important to note that while acquisitions are trending upward, sale prices have continued to trend downward. In the second quarter, the median business sale price dropped 14% to $300,000 largely due to higher interest rates.
While the decline in the sales prices may seem like bad news to buyers, this decline proves that sellers need to get more creative with their offers. For instance, sellers may have to offer financing or increase the monthly rent on the buyer’s lease.
Overview of business sales and listing information for Sacramento, CA
In the Sacramento, Arden-Arcade, and Roseville, California areas, the median asking price continued to increase. The median asking price rose to $399,000, and listings increased from 253 to 264. Median revenue also increased significantly from $550,000 to $609,445.
Here are 3 Key Takeaways from BizBuySell’s report:
1. Seller financing continues to play an important role.
With higher interest rates, many buyers and lenders require some form of seller financing. This can seem challenging for sellers as only 22% plan to offer it, while 70% of potential buyers intend to ask sellers to finance at least part of the deal.
However, sellers need to stay flexible and consider adding financing to their deals. Leaving out this crucial component can reduce the amount of potential buyers and, in some cases, be a deal breaker for lenders, as many lenders are beginning to require at least a 10% note from sellers. This is especially important to buyer and seller timelines. As roughly 28% of business owners intend to sell by 2024, and buyers continue to increase their desire to purchase, seller financing continues to play an impactful role.
In good news for sellers, because interest rates are on the rise, so are the rates on seller financing, allowing sellers to enjoy tax benefits and meet buyer demands as well.
2. Restaurants show a steady comeback, while the retail sector shows a decline.
The restaurant sector has been making a slow but steady comeback post-pandemic. Restaurants saw a 10.3% increase in transitions from last year, and sale prices increased 15.9% from the previous quarter and 6.7% from the previous year. While these numbers are positive, the report indicates that many restaurants are still struggling, offering purchasing opportunities from competitors.
While restaurant numbers have increased, retail numbers are showing a decline. 2022 showed promising numbers post-pandemic, but with more consumers purchasing online and higher interest rates and inflation, these numbers have slowed in 2023. According to the report, retail transactions declined 12.3%, sale prices dropped 22%, revenue slipped 24%, and cash flow fell 9.4%.
3. Buyers continue to seek independence with entrepreneurship.
The number of interested buyers looking to leave their traditional jobs and embrace entrepreneurship continues to rise. The report indicates that 46% of surveyed buyers want to leave their current position to be more in control of their future. This is good news for the baby boomer generation looking to exit the market, even though some want to reinvest in other markets.
It’s also important to note that service businesses made up the largest number of companies for sale recently. Almost half of the sales recorded in the second quarter were service-based businesses, and 59% of surveyed buyers indicated they were interested in purchasing a service-based business.
Outlook for the remainder of 2023:
The BizBuySell report indicates that interest rates continue to be the most significant factor in the small business market. Some sectors are seeing a return to the workforce, while others are still experiencing stagnant or declining numbers. However, there are a few positive notes to consider:
The baby boomer generation continues to exit the market. According to the report, 47% of sellers surveyed marked retirement as their reason for exiting, while 34% indicated burnout. As this age group continues to leave the market, it creates new opportunities for those looking to enter.
As mentioned, seller financing should be considered. This can be a great selling point to buyers looking for interest rate relief and impact new requirements from lenders.
Next Steps
As market conditions continue to change and evolve, and as more buyers indicate their desire to purchase a business, it’s essential to fully understand the value of your company. Are you looking for a Sacramento business broker? Reach out today for a free consultation.
Original source: https://www.sacramentobusinessbrokers.com/post/q2-bizbuysell-report-shows-continued-increase-in-small-business-acquisitions
#businessbroker #sellingabusiness #business
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lindyhunt · 6 years
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To All The Boys I’ve Loved Before Actor Put on Blast for Racially-Insensitive Tweets
Take Crazy Rich Asians’ outstanding box office debut and combine it with the super positive response to Netflix’s To All The Boys I’ve Loved Before, and it’s been a pretty incredible week for Asian representation and recognition.
But unfortunately, racially-insensitive tweets that were uncovered following the latter’s release managed to taint the otherwise-perfect opening weekend.
Israel Broussard stars in Netflix’s take on the Jenny Han bestseller, To All The Boys I’ve Loved Before and plays the role of love interest Josh Sanderson. Over the weekend, Twitter user @Seb_Paradise dug through the actor’s tweets and found some pretty inappropriate things.
In the midst of such a historic moment for the Asian community, one really stood out.
“Dogs can sense earthquakes. Too bad Japan ate them all,” Broussard posted in July 2011.
@israelbroussard is an actor in the movie. The same Broussard who said "Dogs can sense earthquakes. Too bad Japan ate them all." https://t.co/9ifgWC6aTw
— Seb. (@Seb_Paradise) August 19, 2018
The tweet isn’t only problematic for its commentary on Japanese people, but it’s also offensive because of its timing. Only a few months before, Japan was devastated by 2011’s Tōhoku earthquake and ensuing tsunami. The powerful 9.1 magnitude earthquake was the largest ever to hit Japan, resulting in dangerous 30-foot waves that battered the coastline. The natural disaster caused over 20,000 deaths and thousands more were marked as missing.
The Twitter user @Seb_Paradise expressed his disgust for Broussard’s blatant lack of empathy. “What makes this infuriating is that his tweet is made in reference to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami which killed around 16000 people in Japan,” he writes, before adding that the tweet was also posted only a few days after a frightening aftershock. “Instead of offering condolences, Broussard chose to racially insult Japanese people. This just shows how much he values Asians,” he continues in the thread.
He tweeted that on 12 July 2011, just 2 days after a 7.0 magnitude earthquake, likely an aftershock of the Tohoku earthquake, hit the northeastern coast of Japan.
— Seb. (@Seb_Paradise) August 19, 2018
Instead of offering condolences, Broussard chose to racially insult Japanese people. This just shows how much he values Asians.
— Seb. (@Seb_Paradise) August 19, 2018
The resurfacing of this tweet prompted other users to comb through Broussard’s feed. PopBuzz discovered one that said, “Hashtags don’t fucking matter. but all lives do. black lives matter. white lives matter. police lives matter.” In another post he says that the Black Lives Matter movement was only focused on “division”.
Josh aka Israel Broussard from to all the boys i’ve loved before ….is already cancelled pic.twitter.com/R9sLbKBxg1
— tyler 🕸 (@hoIlandstoms) August 19, 2018
Seriously, Israel Broussard's likes are the biggest: pro gun, pro Trump, pro Ben fucking Shapiro, anti Muslims, blacks and women, MESS
— hey maid 🍒 (@moya_lm) August 18, 2018
Look at this! These are some of Israel Broussard's most recent likes. It really sucks that this man got to star in the rare film that had an Asian-American woman as the romantic lead #AllTheBoysIveLovedBefore pic.twitter.com/OE2tcIfmhI
— hey maid 🍒 (@moya_lm) August 18, 2018
“It really sucks that this man got to star in the rare film that had an Asian-American woman as the romantic lead,” @moya_lm tweeted. And user @hollanstoms declared that the emerging star is “already cancelled”.
Broussard eventually issued an apology late last night on Twitter.
pic.twitter.com/YMPyrrf2p3
— Israel Broussard (@israelbroussard) August 22, 2018
Broussard isn’t the first to have old social media posts come back to haunt him. Earlier this week, the beauty community was up in arms after users found racially-insensitive tweets while looking into the online history of “makeup gurus” like Laura Lee and Gabriel Zamora. Laura Lee has seen a steady decline in YouTube subscribers ever since.
Growing up on social media means a trail of information that documents both good and bad decisions. And with the rate at which we share our lives, it can be easy to forget about the things we’ve liked or posted about in the past. Growing up means changing and developing, but the internet tends to seal things in stone.
So when is it justifiable to “cancel” someone?
James Gunn, who was set to direct Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, was ousted from his role this summer as old tweets of his resurfaced in which he joked about topics like rape and pedophilia. The posts led to swift repercussions, but the superhero franchise’s cast was quick to come to the director’s defence, signing an open letter of support for Gunn. A lot of the public agreed with them.
Alternatively, in the case of Roseanne Barr, her own racism on Twitter resulted in the quick cancellation of the Roseanne revival and no one really doubted that this was the right decision.
But what about cases like The Bachelorette, where this year’s winner, Garett Yrigoyen, got in hot water over inappropriate likes on Instagram? The jury was pretty divided in this case, with some supporting his apology and commitment to changing himself for the better and others not quite buying it.
These cases create a lot of questions. Does our past define us? Can people move on from their mistakes and grow? Can we, as an audience, forgive? In the case of Barr, her responses after the fact are what really left a bitter taste in people’s mouths. In the case of Broussard, he’s trying to apologize and wants to educate himself. So what do we think? Cancelled? Or pending?
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investmart007 · 6 years
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WASHINGTON | AP FACT CHECK: Trump's hyped claims on economy, NKorea, vets
New Post has been published on https://is.gd/Pv2nd2
WASHINGTON | AP FACT CHECK: Trump's hyped claims on economy, NKorea, vets
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump received positive economic news this past week and twisted it out of proportion. That impulse ran through days of rhetoric as he hailed the success of a veterans program that hasn’t started and saw progress with North Korea that isn’t evident to his top diplomat.
A week in review:
ECONOMY AND TRADE
TRUMP: “We’ve accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions.” — remarks Friday on a new economic report.
THE FACTS: That doesn’t square with the record. Trump didn’t inherit a fixer-upper economy.
The U.S. economy just entered its 10th year of growth, a recovery that began under President Barack Obama, who inherited the Great Recession. The data show that the falling unemployment rate and gains in home values reflect the duration of the recovery, rather than any major changes made since 2017 by the Trump administration.
While Trump praised the 4.1 percent annual growth rate in the second quarter, it exceeded that level four times during the Obama presidency. But quarterly figures are volatile and strength in one quarter can be reversed in the next. While Obama never achieved the 3 percent annual growth that Trump hopes to see, he came close. The economy grew 2.9 percent in 2015.
The economy faces two significant structural drags that could keep growth closer to 2 percent than 3 percent: an aging population, which means fewer people are working and more are retired, and weak productivity growth, which means that those who are working aren’t increasing their output as quickly as in the past.
Both of those factors are largely beyond Trump’s control.
TRUMP: “One of the biggest wins in the report, and it is, indeed a big one, is that the trade deficit — very dear to my heart because we’ve been ripped off by the world — has dropped.” — remarks Friday.
THE FACTS: Trump is correct that a lower trade deficit helped growth in the April-June quarter, but it’s not necessarily for a positive reason.
The president has floated plans to impose import taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign goods, which has led to the risk of retaliatory tariffs by foreign companies on U.S. goods.
This threat of an escalating trade war has led many companies to increase their levels of trade before any tariffs hit, causing the temporary boost in exports being celebrated by Trump.
Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial, said the result is that the gains from trade in the second quarter will not be repeated.
TRUMP: “We’re having the best economy we’ve ever had in the history of our country.” — remarks Thursday in Granite City, Illinois.
THE FACTS: This is not the best the U.S. economy has ever been.
The unemployment rate is near a 40-year low and growth is solid, but by many measures the current economy trails other periods in U.S. history. Average hourly pay, before adjusting for inflation, is rising at about a 2.5 percent annual rate, below the 4 percent level reached in the late 1990s when the unemployment rate was as low as it is now.
Pay was growing even faster in the late 1960s, when the jobless rate remained below 4 percent for nearly four years. And economic growth topped 4 percent for three full years from 1998 through 2000, an annual rate it hasn’t touched since.
TRUMP: “The Canadians, you have a totally closed market … they have a 375 percent tax on dairy products, other than that it’s wonderful to deal. And we have a very big deficit with Canada, a trade deficit.” — remarks Thursday in Peosta, Iowa.
THE FACTS: No, it’s not closed. Because of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada’s market is almost totally open to the United States. Each country has a few products that are still largely protected, such as dairy in Canada and sugar in the United States.
Trump also repeated his claim that the U.S. has a trade deficit with Canada, but that is true only in goods. When services are included, such as insurance, tourism, and engineering, the U.S. had a $2.8 billion surplus with Canada last year.
___
NORTH KOREA
TRUMP: “We’re also pursuing the denuclearization of North Korea and a new future of prosperity, security, and peace on the Korean Peninsula and all of Asia. New images, just today, show that North Korea has begun the process of dismantling a key missile site. And we appreciate that. We had a fantastic meeting with Chairman Kim, and it seems to be going very well.” — remarks Tuesday to Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City, Missouri.
THE FACTS: Trump’s assessment that his administration’s plan to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons is “going very well” is not fully shared by his own secretary of state, Mike Pompeo. In fact, Pompeo acknowledged this past week that the North is still producing fissile material for nuclear weapons.
Trump made his remarks after the North Korea-focused 38 North website released recent satellite imagery that seems to show dismantlement underway at Sohae.
But Pompeo sounded a note of caution. He said that while such a step would be in line with the pledges that Kim made to Trump at the June 12 summit in Singapore, it would have to be confirmed by international inspectors.
Analysts say dismantling a few facilities at the site alone won’t realistically reduce North Korea’s military capability or represent a material step toward denuclearization.
Indeed, at a Senate hearing Wednesday, Pompeo acknowledged that North Korea continues to produce fuel for nuclear weapons despite Kim’s pledge to denuclearize. Pompeo said there was “an awful long way to go” before North Korea could no longer be viewed as a nuclear threat.
___
AMAZON AND MANUFACTURING
TRUMP: “The Amazon Washington Post has gone crazy against me ever since they lost the Internet Tax Case in the U.S. Supreme Court two months ago. Next up is the U.S. Post Office which they use, at a fraction of real cost, as their ‘delivery boy’ for a BIG percentage of their packages…” — tweet Monday.
THE FACTS: He’s wrong to suggest that the U.S. Postal Service delivers packages for Amazon below cost. Federal regulators in fact have reviewed the Amazon contract with the Postal Service each year and determined it to be profitable.
Trump is upset with Amazon because its founder, Jeff Bezos, owns The Washington Post, which Trump has labeled “fake news” after the newspaper reported unfavorable developments during his campaign and presidency.
While the Postal Service has lost money for 11 years, package delivery, a bright spot, is not the reason.
Boosted by e-commerce, the Postal Service has enjoyed double-digit increases in revenue from delivering packages, but that hasn’t been enough to offset pension and health care costs as well as declines in first-class letters and marketing mail. Together, letters and marketing mail make up more than two-thirds of postal revenue.
Amazon sends packages via the post office, FedEx, UPS and other services, and has taken steps toward becoming more self-reliant in shipping.
TRUMP: “On the South Lawn, you have the space capsule. And every part is made right here, in America.” — remarks Monday at Made in America event.
THE FACTS: Trump neglects to mention a key detail: NASA’s Orion crew capsule, one of the star products at the White House event celebrating U.S. manufacturing, will ride through space thanks to Europe.
With its four solar-array wings, the European Service Module supplies propulsion, power and the essentials of life for the capsule’s space travels and marks a departure for NASA.
“For the first time,” the agency says, “NASA will use a European-built system as a critical element to power an American spacecraft.” Airbus, Boeing’s prime competitor in commercial air travel, leads an array of European companies that made the service module.
___
MILITARY AND VETERANS
TRUMP: “Veterans’ unemployment has fallen to the lowest level in almost 18 years. … And I’ll guarantee, within a month or two months, that 18 will be even a much higher number.” — remarks Tuesday at VFW convention.
THE FACTS: This boast is based on outdated numbers.
The veterans’ unemployment rate was 3.3 percent in June, a low rate historically, but that is still above the 2.7 percent rate in October, which was the lowest in nearly 17 years.
Veterans’ unemployment has fallen mostly for the same reasons that joblessness has fallen for everyone else: strong hiring and steady economic growth for the past eight years.
The vets’ unemployment rate peaked at 9.9 percent in January 2011, then fell by more than half to 4.5 percent by the time Trump was inaugurated in January 2017. Since then, it has fallen an additional 1.2 percentage points.
Trump won’t be able to get to a higher number than 18 years, as he promises to do, because the data only go back to 2000.
TRUMP: “We passed Veterans Choice, the biggest thing ever. … It has got to be the biggest improvement you can have. So now if you can’t get the treatment you need in a timely manner, people used to wait two weeks, three weeks, eight weeks, they couldn’t get to a doctor. You will have the right to see a private doctor immediately, and we will pay for it.” — remarks Tuesday.
THE FACTS: The care provided under the Choice program is not as immediate as Trump suggests, nor is it likely to be the “biggest thing” ever. Currently only veterans who endure waits of at least 30 days for an appointment at a VA facility are eligible to receive care immediately from private doctors at government expense, a standard that the VA is frequently unable to meet.
Under a newly expanded Choice program that will take at least a year to implement, veterans will still have to meet certain criteria before they can see a private physician.
A recent report by the Government Accountability Office found that despite the Choice program’s guarantee of providing an appointment within 30 days, veterans waited an average of 51 to 64 days.
TRUMP: “We’re greatly expanding telehealth and walk-in clinics so our veterans can get anywhere, at any time, they can get what they need, they can learn about the problem and they don’t necessarily have to drive long distances and wait. It’s been a very big success.”
THE FACTS: A new benefit that would give the nation’s veterans access to commercially run walk-in clinics is not a success at all, because it hasn’t started.
It won’t begin for another year and the care won’t always be freely provided “anywhere, at any time.” Only veterans who have used VA health care services in the previous two years would be able to get care at the private walk-in clinics. After two visits, veterans could be subject to higher co-payments charged by the VA.
___
By HOPE YEN, JOSH BOAK and CHRISTOPHER RUGABER,  Associated Press
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its-veso · 5 years
Text
GBP/USD Forecast April 8-12 – Pound steady but Brexit headwinds ahead
GBP/USD was unchanged last week, after sustaining sharp losses a week earlier. Investors will be keeping a close eye on GDP and Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
The Brexit deadline has been extended to April 12, but the deadlock over Britain’s withdrawal has not eased. PMI reports were a mixed bag. Manufacturing PMI improved to 55.1, its highest level in a year. However, Services and Construction PMI both came in under 50, which points to contraction.
U.S. numbers started the week on a sour note, as retail sales and durable goods orders posted declines and missed their forecasts. On Friday, employment data was mixed. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 196 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 172 thousand in March. Still, this reading was significantly lower than the December and January releases, both of which were above the 300-thousand level. Wage growth dipped to 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%.
GBP/USD daily graph with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:
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Consumer Inflation Expectations: Monday, Tentative. Inflation expectations help analysts track actual inflation figures. The indicator climbed to 3.2% in the third quarter, its highest level in more than five years.
BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:01. The British Retail Consortium release has posted three declines in the past four months, pointing to weakness in consumer spending. Will we see a positive reading for March?
GDP: Wednesday, 8:30. This indicator provides a monthly breakdown of GDP data. In February, the economy posted a strong gain of 0.5%, above the estimate of 0.2%. However, with the Brexit turmoil weighing on the economy, the markets are expecting a weak gain of 0.2% in March.
Manufacturing Production: Wednesday, 8:30. The manufacturing production has struggled in recent months. The indicator surprised with a strong gain of 0.8% in January, after three straight declines. The forecast for February stands at 0.2%.
NIESR GDP Estimate: Wednesday, Tentative. This indicator, released monthly, helps analysts track GDP, which is posted quarterly. The indicator has been slowing and dropped to 0.1% in February.
RICS House Price Balance: Wednesday, 23:01. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors indicator is pointing to deflation in house prices, with most surveyors showing a drop in house prices.
CB Leading Index: Friday, 13:30. The Conference Board release is based on 7 economic indicators. In January, the indicator declined 0.4%. Will see a rebound in the February release?
GBP/USD Technical analysis
Technical lines from top to bottom:
The round number of 1.34 has held in resistance since June 2018.
1.3375 was a high point in July. It is followed by the round number of 1.3300 which saw activity during the week. It is currently a weak resistance line.
1.3217 was the high point of the pound rally in late January.
1.3170 was a swing high in early November.
1.3070 was a high point in mid-November.
Late in the week, the pair broke through support at the round number of 1.3000 (mentioned last [1]week[2]).
1.2910 has held in support since mid-February,
1.2850 capped recovery attempts in late November.
1.2728 was active in the first half of January.
1.2616 is the final support level for now.
I remain bearish on GBP/USD
The Brexit crisis shows no signs of being resolved, as Prime Minister May has been unable to push her withdrawal agreement through parliament. This means that a hard Brexit, which would hurt the economy, remains a strong possibility. GDP and manufacturing production are expected to post weak gains, which could sour investors on the British currency.
Further reading:
Safe trading!
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References
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mikemortgage · 6 years
Text
AP FACT CHECK: Trump’s hyped claims on economy, NKorea, vets
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump received positive economic news this past week and twisted it out of proportion. That impulse ran through days of rhetoric as he hailed the success of a veterans program that hasn’t started and saw progress with North Korea that isn’t evident to his top diplomat.
A week in review:
ECONOMY AND TRADE
TRUMP: “We’ve accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions.” — remarks Friday on a new economic report.
THE FACTS: That doesn’t square with the record. Trump didn’t inherit a fixer-upper economy.
The U.S. economy just entered its 10th year of growth, a recovery that began under President Barack Obama, who inherited the Great Recession. The data show that the falling unemployment rate and gains in home values reflect the duration of the recovery, rather than any major changes made since 2017 by the Trump administration.
While Trump praised the 4.1 per cent annual growth rate in the second quarter, it exceeded that level four times during the Obama presidency. But quarterly figures are volatile and strength in one quarter can be reversed in the next. While Obama never achieved the 3 per cent annual growth that Trump hopes to see, he came close. The economy grew 2.9 per cent in 2015.
The economy faces two significant structural drags that could keep growth closer to 2 per cent than 3 per cent: an aging population, which means fewer people are working and more are retired, and weak productivity growth, which means that those who are working aren’t increasing their output as quickly as in the past.
Both of those factors are largely beyond Trump’s control.
TRUMP: “One of the biggest wins in the report, and it is, indeed a big one, is that the trade deficit — very dear to my heart because we’ve been ripped off by the world — has dropped.” — remarks Friday.
THE FACTS: Trump is correct that a lower trade deficit helped growth in the April-June quarter, but it’s not necessarily for a positive reason.
The president has floated plans to impose import taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign goods, which has led to the risk of retaliatory tariffs by foreign companies on U.S. goods.
This threat of an escalating trade war has led many companies to increase their levels of trade before any tariffs hit, causing the temporary boost in exports being celebrated by Trump.
Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial, said the result is that the gains from trade in the second quarter will not be repeated.
TRUMP: “We’re having the best economy we’ve ever had in the history of our country.” — remarks Thursday in Granite City, Illinois.
THE FACTS: This is not the best the U.S. economy has ever been.
The unemployment rate is near a 40-year low and growth is solid, but by many measures the current economy trails other periods in U.S. history. Average hourly pay, before adjusting for inflation, is rising at about a 2.5 per cent annual rate, below the 4 per cent level reached in the late 1990s when the unemployment rate was as low as it is now.
Pay was growing even faster in the late 1960s, when the jobless rate remained below 4 per cent for nearly four years. And economic growth topped 4 per cent for three full years from 1998 through 2000, an annual rate it hasn’t touched since.
TRUMP: “The Canadians, you have a totally closed market … they have a 375 per cent tax on dairy products, other than that it’s wonderful to deal. And we have a very big deficit with Canada, a trade deficit.” — remarks Thursday in Peosta, Iowa.
THE FACTS: No, it’s not closed. Because of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada’s market is almost totally open to the United States. Each country has a few products that are still largely protected, such as dairy in Canada and sugar in the United States.
Trump also repeated his claim that the U.S. has a trade deficit with Canada, but that is true only in goods. When services are included, such as insurance, tourism, and engineering, the U.S. had a $2.8 billion surplus with Canada last year.
——
NORTH KOREA
TRUMP: “We’re also pursuing the denuclearization of North Korea and a new future of prosperity, security, and peace on the Korean Peninsula and all of Asia. New images, just today, show that North Korea has begun the process of dismantling a key missile site. And we appreciate that. We had a fantastic meeting with Chairman Kim, and it seems to be going very well.” — remarks Tuesday to Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City, Missouri.
THE FACTS: Trump’s assessment that his administration’s plan to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons is “going very well” is not fully shared by his own secretary of state, Mike Pompeo. In fact, Pompeo acknowledged this past week that the North is still producing fissile material for nuclear weapons.
Trump made his remarks after the North Korea-focused 38 North website released recent satellite imagery that seems to show dismantlement underway at Sohae.
But Pompeo sounded a note of caution. He said that while such a step would be in line with the pledges that Kim made to Trump at the June 12 summit in Singapore, it would have to be confirmed by international inspectors.
Analysts say dismantling a few facilities at the site alone won’t realistically reduce North Korea’s military capability or represent a material step toward denuclearization.
Indeed, at a Senate hearing Wednesday, Pompeo acknowledged that North Korea continues to produce fuel for nuclear weapons despite Kim’s pledge to denuclearize. Pompeo said there was “an awful long way to go” before North Korea could no longer be viewed as a nuclear threat.
——
AMAZON AND MANUFACTURING
TRUMP: “The Amazon Washington Post has gone crazy against me ever since they lost the Internet Tax Case in the U.S. Supreme Court two months ago. Next up is the U.S. Post Office which they use, at a fraction of real cost, as their ‘delivery boy’ for a BIG percentage of their packages…” — tweet Monday.
THE FACTS: He’s wrong to suggest that the U.S. Postal Service delivers packages for Amazon below cost. Federal regulators in fact have reviewed the Amazon contract with the Postal Service each year and determined it to be profitable.
Trump is upset with Amazon because its founder, Jeff Bezos, owns The Washington Post, which Trump has labeled “fake news” after the newspaper reported unfavourable developments during his campaign and presidency.
While the Postal Service has lost money for 11 years, package delivery, a bright spot, is not the reason.
Boosted by e-commerce, the Postal Service has enjoyed double-digit increases in revenue from delivering packages, but that hasn’t been enough to offset pension and health care costs as well as declines in first-class letters and marketing mail. Together, letters and marketing mail make up more than two-thirds of postal revenue.
Amazon sends packages via the post office, FedEx, UPS and other services, and has taken steps toward becoming more self-reliant in shipping.
TRUMP: “On the South Lawn, you have the space capsule. And every part is made right here, in America.” — remarks Monday at Made in America event.
THE FACTS: Trump neglects to mention a key detail: NASA’s Orion crew capsule, one of the star products at the White House event celebrating U.S. manufacturing, will ride through space thanks to Europe.
With its four solar-array wings, the European Service Module supplies propulsion, power and the essentials of life for the capsule’s space travels and marks a departure for NASA.
“For the first time,” the agency says, “NASA will use a European-built system as a critical element to power an American spacecraft.” Airbus, Boeing’s prime competitor in commercial air travel, leads an array of European companies that made the service module.
——
MILITARY AND VETERANS
TRUMP: “Veterans’ unemployment has fallen to the lowest level in almost 18 years. … And I’ll guarantee, within a month or two months, that 18 will be even a much higher number.” — remarks Tuesday at VFW convention.
THE FACTS: This boast is based on outdated numbers.
The veterans’ unemployment rate was 3.3 per cent in June, a low rate historically, but that is still above the 2.7 per cent rate in October, which was the lowest in nearly 17 years.
Veterans’ unemployment has fallen mostly for the same reasons that joblessness has fallen for everyone else: strong hiring and steady economic growth for the past eight years.
The vets’ unemployment rate peaked at 9.9 per cent in January 2011, then fell by more than half to 4.5 per cent by the time Trump was inaugurated in January 2017. Since then, it has fallen an additional 1.2 percentage points.
Trump won’t be able to get to a higher number than 18 years, as he promises to do, because the data only go back to 2000.
TRUMP: “We passed Veterans Choice, the biggest thing ever. … It has got to be the biggest improvement you can have. So now if you can’t get the treatment you need in a timely manner, people used to wait two weeks, three weeks, eight weeks, they couldn’t get to a doctor. You will have the right to see a private doctor immediately, and we will pay for it.” — remarks Tuesday.
THE FACTS: The care provided under the Choice program is not as immediate as Trump suggests, nor is it likely to be the “biggest thing” ever. Currently only veterans who endure waits of at least 30 days for an appointment at a VA facility are eligible to receive care immediately from private doctors at government expense, a standard that the VA is frequently unable to meet.
Under a newly expanded Choice program that will take at least a year to implement, veterans will still have to meet certain criteria before they can see a private physician.
A recent report by the Government Accountability Office found that despite the Choice program’s guarantee of providing an appointment within 30 days, veterans waited an average of 51 to 64 days.
TRUMP: “We’re greatly expanding telehealth and walk-in clinics so our veterans can get anywhere, at any time, they can get what they need, they can learn about the problem and they don’t necessarily have to drive long distances and wait. It’s been a very big success.”
THE FACTS: A new benefit that would give the nation’s veterans access to commercially run walk-in clinics is not a success at all, because it hasn’t started.
It won’t begin for another year and the care won’t always be freely provided “anywhere, at any time.” Only veterans who have used VA health care services in the previous two years would be able to get care at the private walk-in clinics. After two visits, veterans could be subject to higher co-payments charged by the VA.
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Associated Press writers Cal Woodward and Seth Borenstein contributed to this report.
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