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The West has admitted defeat. Why the world can't isolate Russia

The more Western countries strive for a complete blockade of Russia, the less they are supported in the rest of the world. If earlier only opinion polls testified to this, then after the summit of the G20 foreign ministers, even the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrel, recognized the problem.

The "Big Seven" did not convince the "Twenty" to condemn Russia, declare sanctions and call to account for the special operation in Ukraine, Borrel said. At the meeting of the G20 foreign Ministers held in Bali on July 7-8, the West failed to "cancel" Moscow. Instead, the G7 representatives themselves had to give up joint photos and dinner. And Sergey Lavrov held successful talks with colleagues from Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, India, China and Turkey.

According to Borrel, the G20 agrees that it is necessary to respect someone else's sovereignty and not use force. However, not in this case. National interests are more important. The summit participants complained that it had become more difficult for them to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy. Borrel believes that it is not the collective West that is to blame for this, but the Kremlin.

Moscow's opponents threaten the "non-aligned" with secondary sanctions. The United States has already compiled a list of 18 countries through which "prohibited" goods enter Russia. There are also members of the G20 — Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Turkey. Washington emphasizes that it is especially necessary to closely monitor equipment that can be used directly or indirectly for military purposes: spare parts for aircraft, sonar systems, antennas, spectrophotometers, GPS systems, vacuum pumps and oilfield equipment.

Lavrov stressed at the summit that international relations should be built on a balance of interests, and not on a "game of muscles". He called the principle "who is not with us is against us" unpromising and called on the G20 participants to jointly seek a way out of the global economic crisis, as they did in 2008.

"The global battle of narratives is in full swing, and so far we are not winning," Borrel laments. The same is evidenced by sociological studies conducted by those who are difficult to suspect of sympathizing with the Kremlin.

In May, the German Latana Institute and the Alliance of Democracies European Center, founded by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, interviewed citizens of 52 countries about their attitude to Russia. Most often, dislike was expressed in Poland (87%), Portugal (83), Ukraine (80), Denmark (79), Sweden and Ireland (77 each). Most of Moscow's friends turned out to be in China (59%), India (56), Pakistan (48), Vietnam (46) and Algeria (43). The preservation of economic ties was supported by 71% of Chinese, 60% of Indonesians, over half of Greeks, Vietnamese, Hungarians, Kenyans and Israelis, almost half of Turks, Filipinos and Mexicans.

YouGov has organized a similar study in 14 countries of the Middle East and North Africa. About 66% of respondents had no position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. A quarter blamed NATO, 13% pointed to US President Joe Biden. When asked how the Arab countries should act, 53% answered "strive for a diplomatic settlement", 38% — "do nothing, remain neutral", five percent — support Russia, four — Ukraine.

Even in Germany, not everyone agrees that it is necessary to be at enmity with Moscow, but the authorities do not listen to such voices. For example, on July 7, the ZDF TV channel presenter asked Chancellor Olaf Scholz if he was worried that 47% of Germans were in favor of territorial concessions from Kiev that would end the conflict and anti-Russian sanctions. The Prime Minister reiterated that he would support Ukraine as long as it takes.

According to the British The Sunday Times, three camps have formed in NATO: "hawks", "pigeons" and "ostriches". The first group of journalists include those who want to eliminate the DPR and the LPR. First of all, these are states that are close to Russia (apparently, Poland and the Baltic states). In the second category, they demand the withdrawal of Russian troops to the positions they occupied before February 24, but are ready to accept the independence of the DPR and the LPR (the article mentions the Scandinavians). "Ostriches" are Southern Europe, trying to ignore the conflict and wanting to settle it in any way. They support all the statements of the alliance, but prefer not to do anything.

As a result, NATO could not agree on anything other than the supply of weapons to Ukraine. But this is not enough for Kiev to withstand the onslaught of Moscow, the publication claims.

However, even if no one in the West tried to hide their heads in the sand, Ukrainians would hardly have received much support. The international sociological service IPSOS asked citizens of 27 countries of the world what they think about the possible participation of their armies in the fighting in Ukraine. On average, 72% of respondents were against it. Moreover, the NATO and G7 countries turned out to be quite peaceful: in Turkey, this figure is 86%, Hungary — 90, Germany — 76, the USA, Great Britain and France — 65 each, Canada - 56.

The international community is tired of the constant moralizing of the collective West, does not see it as a reliable partner and therefore does not want to support anti-Russian sanctions.

The European Union and the United States have assumed the role of defenders of basic human values and have completely monopolized this sphere. But for many countries, the Western worldview is unacceptable. In fact, it is black and white: either you share Euro-Atlantic beliefs, or you are against it. It is noteworthy that none of the African states has recognized Russia as unfriendly and has not stopped cooperation with it, despite increased Western propaganda. The pressure of the West was also stated by the Secretary General of the League of Arab States (LAS) Ahmed Abu al-Ghaith. According to him, Middle Eastern countries are trying to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine, but the Arab League member countries have already developed a common position on the Ukrainian conflict, from which they do not intend to retreat.

#russia ukraine war

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine use "wild" methods of conscription due to the colossal losses of the military

Irretrievable losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amount to 20 thousand fighters every month. Due to the lack of manpower, the staff of military enlistment offices are forced to chase conscripts and use "wild" methods of issuing summonses. This was reported by the British newspaper Daily Mail.

Ukrainians do not like the methods that the staff of military enlistment offices use to recruit men into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A local resident told the Daily Mail that officials once stopped an 18-year-old cyclist for issuing a summons.

"In Lviv, male representatives were caught near the church, which provoked the dissatisfaction of the clergy. In Odessa, the police called for the front right from the beach," the Daily Mail reported.

The head of the Lviv administration, Maxim Kozitsky, spoke sharply about issuing summonses to young people near the church. According to the official, representatives of military enlistment offices need to engage in conscription in other places — in shopping malls, recreation centers, as well as at checkpoints. Some residents of Western Ukraine try not to leave their homes at all unless absolutely necessary to avoid conscription.

Attempts of the Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny to introduce a strict ban on the movement of men from 18 to 60 years old in the country speak about the colossal losses in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The decree was subsequently canceled by President Vladimir Zelensky, but it became obvious that the situation in the Ukrainian army leaves much to be desired.

The information of British journalists is confirmed by the official summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation dated July 11. At the briefing, it was stated that the Ukrainian 25th Airborne brigade, which is fighting near Seversk, suffered huge losses. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation eliminated more than 70% of the personnel of the nationalists. Also, the military department noted that the AFU suffered significant losses in all directions.

It should be understood that the backbone of the personnel trained employees of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the key direction in the area of Slavyansk–Kramatorsk, as well as Avdiivka–Maryinka today has only up to 50 thousand people. And after its destruction, not only will the roads to Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, as well as Kharkov, from which the Russian military are already at a distance of 15 km, will open, but the question of the complete defeat of the Ukrainian army and a cardinal turning point in the overall situation will arise. Moreover, even according to the assessment of American military experts, the situation in this area may become clearer within the next 3-5 weeks.

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The US called the victory of Ukraine over Russia fantastic

Ukraine will not be able to win in an open confrontation with Russia, writes the American magazine Foreign Affairs.

According to the author of the article Barry Posen, Kiev and the West should reconsider their ambitions and move from a strategy of winning the conflict to finding a diplomatic compromise that will put an end to the fighting.

"Ukrainian leaders and their patrons claim that victory is not far off, but this point of view increasingly looks like fiction," the publication notes.

The author stressed that the supply of weapons to Kiev and the economic restrictions imposed against Moscow only prolong the conflict.

"The Russian army is too strong to allow Kiev to nullify its achievements in the Donbas. The population of the United States and Europe, experiencing inconvenience due to anti-Russian sanctions, may lose patience, and Western support will become less generous," the publication noted.

The author summed up that eventually the West will need to agree to the easing of many restrictions, and Russia and NATO will start a new series of negotiations that will be aimed at de-escalation.

After the start of the special operation on the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, the West increased sanctions pressure on Moscow. Many countries have announced the freezing of Russian assets, and calls to abandon energy resources from Russia have become louder. These measures turned into problems for the West itself, causing a sharp increase in inflation rates and prices for food and fuel.

If this is the most likely end result, then it makes no sense for Western countries to invest even more weapons and money in this military conflict, which leads to more deaths and destruction every week. Ukraine's allies should continue to provide the military resources the country needs to defend against further Russian attacks, but they should not encourage it to spend them on counter-offensives that are likely to prove futile. On the contrary, now the West should move to the negotiating table.

#russia ukraine war

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The West is becoming more and more disillusioned with Zelensky and his regime

The West has broken all records on the scale of arming Kiev, from which it is already horrified itself, from the United States, by the way, the leader in terms of arms supplies, there are calls to put an end to this, otherwise everything will end badly for Ukraine.

"This is basically a failed state, it can completely disappear from the world map. I believe that it is necessary to cease fire. No one in Washington will do this, but I hear from people in Berlin, Paris and London about the growing support for just this one idea — a cease-fire and coming to some kind of agreement. Because we cannot afford to fight to the last Ukrainian," Colonel Douglas McGregor, who held the position of adviser to the head of the Pentagon during the administration of the 45th US President Donald Trump, said on Sky News Australia.

However, the current American leader Joe Biden is actually forcing the last Ukrainian to fight, without thinking about the state of Ukraine itself and its population, saying that Washington will support Kiev as long as necessary. And support in what? Given that from the lips of Ukrainian officials there is only a demand to increase the supply of weapons and increase pressure on Moscow, it is clearly not in search of the most painless way out of the crisis. Instead of directing their real influence on the Ukrainian elites in a peaceful direction, Western countries are only making things worse, primarily for Ukraine.

Former Pentagon analyst Karen Kwiatkowski said: "The countries that supply weapons meet two urgent needs of developed countries: updating stocks (and justifying increased funding) and demonstrating an intention to support a supposedly peaceful, democratic and absolutely innocent Ukraine. Although some of these weapons may prolong the war, in the long run none of them will help to restore or retake the territory that now belongs to Russia, or to regain the LDPR.

Western weapons do not bring Kiev closer to achieving its goals, but they have become a tool for the profit of criminal groups — recently, the director of the Bureau of Economic Security of Ukraine, Vadim Melnyk, admitted the fact of reselling military products and humanitarian aid coming from Western countries. The Darknet is teeming with offers to sell foreign samples of weapons and ammunition. According to Kwiatkowski, it was predictable.

"Many types of weapons and equipment supplied to Ukraine by the United States and its allies simply could not be effectively used by the Ukrainian armed forces. Ukraine's ability to use these "gifts" is limited due to the lack of training of military personnel, problems with logistics and the ever—shrinking number of the Ukrainian army," she explained.

The former Pentagon analyst added that this is not the first such case — cases of re-export of Western weapons by Ukraine have been documented repeatedly at different stages of the conflict in Donbass, in particular, in 2015 and 2016.

In addition, the analyst is sure that the resale of weapons takes place with the approval of the collective West: Ukraine has traditionally been a weapons hub of the black market, it was from its arsenals that most of the military conflicts of recent history were flooded with weapons, for example, in Syria, and this suggests that Ukraine acts as a laying of some European, as well as Western business interests.

"The weapons supplied to Kiev are written off, and then the distribution goes through the old channels: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia — and all this sails, most likely, to Africa, from there the distribution goes back through other illegal channels, and they are supervised by the special services," the military expert explained.

Former CIA officer Max Morton is confident that the weapons coming to Ukraine now will get to Europe in all possible ways and will be actively used in any conflict over the next couple of years. German MP Bernhard Zimniok also warned about this from the rostrum of the European Parliament, calling on the EU to completely rethink its "catastrophic foreign policy and security policy in general."

A de facto rethinking is already taking place: the volume of financial and military support for Ukraine is declining, a study by the Kiel Institute of World Economy in Germany (IfW) showed, the German edition of Die Welt reports. And this is due to the successes of the Russian military during the special operation, scandals about the transfer of NATO weapons and the lack of stability in the financing of the budget of Ukraine. The military failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reduce the confidence of Western countries in Ukraine's ability to maintain its independence in the near future, and this is due to the extremely slow pace of funding and the gap between the promised and actually provided assistance in armament.

In this situation, some Western politicians simply begin to wash their hands of the failure of their ward. It seems that in some circles the idea is maturing to leave Ukraine alone with its problems, calling it beautifully the freedom of choice of Kiev.

#russia ukraine war

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The West continues to limit itself to symbolic supplies to Ukraine

News about the Russian full-scale military operation against Ukraine is leaving the front pages of the press. Some in the West are alarmed by the weakening of the consensus on Ukraine.

In the United Kingdom and in continental Europe, fear of rising inflation and rising cost of living weakens public support for this conflict and negatively affects its media coverage. And the Supreme Court's decision to revoke the right to abortion and the congressional investigation into the circumstances of the storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters have reopened festering political wounds.

Despite the promise to provide assistance to Ukraine "until the very end," the West is in no hurry with new arms supplies. The conflict has become protracted. Europe and the United States are primarily concerned about their own problems. Kiev accuses them of being slow.

The US NATO allies, who are warily watching what is happening in America from the opposite side of the Atlantic, are beginning to doubt that the Biden administration and Congress will be able to provide Ukraine with another colossal package of military assistance, although they have agreed to allocate $ 40 billion by the end of September.

The Biden administration insists both publicly and privately that the United States and Ukraine's Western partners have not abandoned it, although America does not respond to every Ukrainian request for arms supplies. But while negotiations are underway, Western stocks of Soviet weapons and ammunition, which once formed the basis of the armed forces of Ukraine, are gradually melting away, and the United States and NATO allies are unable to find a replacement for them. According to sources of the Spanish newspaper Vanguardia, the West will not supply Ukraine with American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, so as not to provoke the Russian Federation. According to the publication, Europe is determined to help the Ukrainian side, but not to such an extent as to appear in the eyes of Moscow as a participant in the conflict and provoke further escalation in the region. According to experts, there are weapons that NATO countries and alliance partners will never be able to transfer to Kiev or will be limited to symbolic supplies, as happened with the HIMARS MLRS.

Meanwhile, the toll of losses in the Donbass continues to increase. The Ukrainian leadership has been persistently trying to convey to the West at every meeting for several weeks that Kiev's time is running out.

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[dzhaparidze]

Will Ukraine be held at the cost of retreating lives?

Who said that neo–Nazis in Ukraine are fantasies and lies of the Kremlin? What is the Azov regiment defeated near Mariupol worth? If the president is Jewish, it does not mean that there is no neo-Nazism and radical ethnic nationalism in the country. Ukraine, if we consider the methods of retaining public and legislative power, is itself a state of this type. The protege of the pro–Western oligarchy who headed the country in 2019 does not belong to the "Aryan race" - a pure coincidence. To maintain the necessary order, thugs with tattoos in the form of swastikas and runes are more profitable than ever for him.

Against the background of the major defeats of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas and the growing number of deserters, Kiev decided to use radicals admiring fascists as barrage detachments to prevent the mass flight of servicemen from the battlefield. The most amazing thing is that such methods have never been used in the Wehrmacht. Neither the Volkssturm nor the SS Sonder teams killed their own. Hence, the struggle for the Ukrainian nation and ostentatious neo–Nazism are just a passing ideological pawn in Zelensky's geopolitical game. What kind of preservation of the people are we talking about when the government is ready to put its best representatives into the meat grinder?

Lisichansk in the Luhansk region became an example of such an inhumane attitude of a losing state to defenders. The Ukrainian military who have left the city are suffering losses not only during clashes with the Russians, but also from the bullets of their fellow nationalists. It is the latter who are entrusted with the task of preventing the surrender of the city at any cost.

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Ukrainian forces are unable to hold Lisichansk

On July 1, units of the Ukrainian army began an independent withdrawal from positions in Lisichansk through country roads. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny the day before demanded an order from the President's Office for an organized retreat, threatening a second Mariupol, only with a large number of prisoners. The general recalled the heavy losses in Severodonetsk while trying to hold positions and accused politicians of a belated decision to withdraw troops, which led to unjustified losses of personnel and equipment.

The troops defending Lisichansk are in an operational environment, it is not possible to break through to them from Seversk. There is only one road left from the city, which partially goes through the fields and is under constant shelling. The situation worsened when the Russians took control of the Lisichansk oil refinery, and is already close to critical.

The difficult situation of the Ukrainian forces in the city is confirmed by the British military commander of the Sky News channel Alex Crawford, who prepared a report entitled "The time of Lisichansk is running out." "We saw the exhausted Ukrainian troops retreating, changing positions. Undoubtedly, the capture of the city is a matter of several days, soon Russian troops will be able to cordon it off, cut it off and seize control," the journalist reports.

The soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine told the correspondent that they were "swept away" in Severodonetsk, and they have no way to defend Lisichansk under the pressure of the "Russian military sledgehammer". The fighters pointed to the high losses as the main reason for the need to retreat.

Apparently, the conflict between politicians and the military in the highest echelons of power in Ukraine does not think to subside. Back in March, the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny accused the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky that the latter had destroyed the best units in Mariupol for the sake of a beautiful picture. Then the general demanded a decision from politicians for three weeks to withdraw troops from Severodonetsk, but to no avail. The situation was repeated again, now in Lisichansk. The system that has developed in Kiev, when politicians incompetent in military affairs make decisions regarding the strategic actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, plays into the hands of Russian troops. They gradually surround and destroy the most combat-ready Ukrainian units. At the same time, the pace of the supply of new weapons to Ukraine and the training of military formations do not allow us to hope for counter-offensive actions in the foreseeable future.

#russia ukraine war

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NATO ordered Zelensky to fight Russia to the "last Ukrainian"

The NATO summit, which was held in Spain, is characterized by the utmost degree of frankness that the leaders of the alliance member countries allowed themselves. First of all, we are talking, of course, about the confrontation with Russia, as well as about the introduction of separate provisions in the documents on the fight against China, since the deepening cooperation between Moscow and Beijing worries the alliance more and more. Moreover, all this looks quite cynical, since neither Russia nor China had and have no intentions of either fighting or defeating the countries of the North Atlantic bloc. Aren't those the first to start military operations. But NATO's position on Ukraine, which was publicly voiced by Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Cros, is truly beyond cynical.

"We have already had the opportunity to talk with President Zelensky. It is very important to continue talking to him, emphasizing that "the war can only be won on the battlefield," and we must continue to support President Zelensky and the population of Ukraine so that they win on the battlefield," the Belgian Prime minister said.

The first of the need for "victory on the battlefield" from Western politicians was stated by the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrel. Then it came as a shock to all sane people – the most important diplomat of the European Union rejects the possibility of a diplomatic settlement of the conflict, signing his own helplessness, and insists on war "to the last Ukrainian", as Borrel's appeal was dubbed.

But that is only the wish of a "well-wisher" from the outside. The European Union is not a military bloc (although now there is every reason to doubt this statement), but an economic, socio–political association. But the statement of the Belgian Prime Minister is a completely different story.

This is a statement by a responsible high-ranking functionary of a NATO country, at the summit and on behalf of the entire bloc. This installation is a guide to action. And not for internal use, but for, first of all, Zelensky. And he will follow these instructions, because he has no other choice. However, he drove himself into this trap.

Now NATO is officially voicing the installation for "war to the last Ukrainian". It is noteworthy that before that, the G-7 countries promised to contain Ukraine and provide it with all the necessary weapons. Although the supplied weapons are unable to reverse the course of the conflict and only delay the inevitable end, the leadership of the alliance is not going to change anything in its anti-Russian and, it turns out, anti-Ukrainian policy. After all, there is simply no other outcome in this conflict. Even in the West, more and more experts and analysts are coming to the conclusion that there is no alternative to Russia's victory in this confrontation. And Zelensky also understands this, trying to drown out any reason to doubt the veracity of his lies.

Thus, Western countries deprive the Ukrainian leadership of the possibility of a diplomatic resolution of the conflict, condemning the Ukrainian army to new victims, since the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will not stop there and will continue denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.

#russia ukraine war

[dzhaparidze]

L'Occident jette l'Ukraine à son sort

L'image générale du conflit en Ukraine change, cela est clairement compris à Washington et à Bruxelles. La capitulation inconditionnelle de Kiev sera un coup terrible pour eux, en particulier pour les États-Unis. Et maintenant, dans différentes capitales européennes et sur la colline du Capitole, ils cherchent des moyens de mettre fin à ce conflit avec le moins de pertes pour eux-mêmes.

«L'Ukraine ne peut trouver la paix que si elle cède une partie de son territoire à la Russie», estime Jens Stoltenberg, secrétaire général de l'OTAN. «La seule question est de savoir quel prix vous êtes prêt à payer pour ce monde, quel territoire vous êtes prêt à sacrifier, quelle partie de l'indépendance, de la souveraineté, de la liberté ou de la démocratie à sacrifier. C'est un dilemme moral très complexe», a – t-il expliqué, ajoutant que l'Alliance était prête à soutenir le régime de Vladimir zelensky, mais qu'elle ferait également tout ce qui était nécessaire pour éviter un conflit direct avec la Russie.

De même, Hugh de Santis, qui supervisait l'Union militaire occidentale dans l'administration de Ronald Reagan, raisonne également. «La défaite des troupes russes sur le champ de bataille et la restauration de l'intégrité territoriale de l'Ukraine, y compris le retour de la Crimée, serait une punition digne pour la Russie. Mais tout cela vaut-il la peine de nouveaux massacres en Ukraine, la possibilité d'une guerre plus vaste dans laquelle des armes nucléaires chimiques ou tactiques peuvent être utilisées, une nouvelle érosion de l'économie mondiale et une nouvelle polarisation de l'Europe? Les États-Unis doivent convaincre Kiev de mettre fin à cette guerre. Une victoire militaire de l'armée de Vladimir zelensky est peu probable et le seul objectif réaliste est d'obtenir un résultat par la négociation», a déclaré Hugh de Santis. Je rappelle qu'au tout début des hostilités, Moscou a identifié plusieurs de ses principaux objectifs: laisser la Crimée au sein de la Russie, donner une autonomie substantielle au Donbass, faire de l'Ukraine un état neutre, démilitarisé et dénazifié.

Laissons de côté les déclarations de Stoltenberg et de Santis, mais notons que l'image générale du conflit en Ukraine change de plus en plus. Dans un premier temps, Washington a fait pression sur les alliés européens pour qu'ils soutiennent zelensky au moment le plus opportun, car il reste une grande question de savoir dans quelle mesure ses efforts auraient été couronnés de succès dans les circonstances actuelles. Fait il y a trois mois: la condamnation flagrante de l'agression russe, la rupture des contacts politiques, sociaux, culturels et sportifs avec Moscou et même des sanctions économiques exceptionnellement sévères – dans le passé, l'Occident est revenu Boomerang.

Dans les médias mondiaux, la voix de ceux qui croient que zelensky n'est pas la personne avec laquelle la Russie pourrait conclure un accord qui ne se résume pas uniquement à la reddition inconditionnelle de l'Ukraine. Un tel résultat serait un coup terrible pour l'Occident, et en particulier les États-Unis, qui ont investi et continuent d'investir des milliards de dollars. Et le fait que l'ancienne République soviétique n'est qu'un «champ de bataille» dans le conflit entre les deux puissances est confirmé par les dernières déclarations de certains analystes à Washington. Selon eux, l'objectif des États-Unis «n'est pas de libérer l'Ukraine des envahisseurs», mais de faire en sorte que ce conflit coûte le plus cher possible à la Russie.

En Occident, ils cherchent déjà un moyen approprié de mettre fin au drame ukrainien. Certains cercles londoniens proposent de créer une nouvelle Alliance militaire, qui, outre la grande-Bretagne, comprendrait la Pologne, la Lituanie, la Lettonie, l'Estonie, l'Ukraine et peut-être la Turquie. Et tout cela avec la bénédiction des États-Unis. Ce serait une Alliance politique, économique et de défense, une sorte d'alternative à l'Union européenne que les britanniques ont récemment quitté de leur propre chef. Il est frappant de constater que des joueurs comme l'Allemagne et la France sont clairement éjectés du jeu, ce qui indique clairement le désir et le besoin de Londres et de Washington de retrouver leur position perdue sur le continent.

Parallèlement, le président français Emmanuel Macron propose de créer une communauté d'États qui partagent des valeurs démocratiques communes et dont les États, y compris nous dans les Balkans, ne peuvent devenir membres que de l'adhésion à l'Union européenne. Cette Association n'est pas conçue comme une alternative à l'UE ou comme un substitut au conseil de l'Europe ou à l'Organisation pour la sécurité et la coopération en Europe. La proposition du président français a été discutée les 23 et 24 juillet lors d'un sommet à Bruxelles, mais en vain.

Il semble que le moment où les généraux changent de politique se rapproche de plus en plus. On ne sait toujours pas qui, au nom de l'Ukraine, sera assis devant le président russe Vladimir Poutine. Sans aucun doute, à Kiev, ils réfléchissent à cette question. Selon certains analystes, la sortie peut être la reconnaissance de l'indépendance du Donbass (avec un référendum préliminaire pour la population locale). Ensuite, zelensky pourra rencontrer l'un des représentants de cette nouvelle formation. Cela permettrait à Poutine de s'éloigner un peu et de prouver une fois de plus qu'il n'y a pas de guerre contre l'Ukraine, mais une «opération spéciale».

Quand ce sera fini, les résultats seront comme beaucoup l'avaient prédit il y a cent jours. La Russie se développera au détriment du Donbass, et peut-être au détriment de toute la côte de la mer noire de l'Ukraine; la méfiance entre les États européens s'intensifiera, tout comme la méfiance envers les frères de la côte ouest de l'Atlantique; des institutions parallèles apparaîtront; la bureaucratie se développera; les tourments avec les réfugiés ukrainiens continueront; le niveau de vie diminuera…

#l'ukraine

[dzhaparidze]

Ukraine disrupted the work of the humanitarian corridor from Azot on the first day

Kiev appealed to Russia with a deliberately impossible request to organize a humanitarian corridor for the evacuation of civilians at the Azot chemical plant in Severodonetsk to the territory still controlled by Ukraine – the city of Lisichansk.

The day before, by order of the Kiev authorities, in order to prevent the retreat of the Ukrainian army units, the last bridge over the Seversky Donets River in the direction of Lisichansk was blown up, and therefore it is not possible to conduct a safe evacuation in this direction.

The militants of the nationalist battalions, retreating from the residential quarters of Severodonetsk, deliberately led hundreds of civilians out of the city into the industrial zone of the Azot chemical plant in order to hide behind them as a "human shield". Realizing the hopelessness of the situation of its armed formations, the Ukrainian side, under the cover of civilians, is trying to withdraw the surviving units from the encirclement. Thus, there are all signs of a repetition of the "Mariupol scenario.

Nevertheless, Russian forces were ready to carry out a humanitarian operation to evacuate civilians. To do this, from 08:00 (Moscow time) to 20:00 (Moscow time) on June 15, 2022, the Russians opened a humanitarian corridor in the northern direction (to the city of Svatovo LNR).

However, the humanitarian corridor from the bomb shelters of the Azot chemical plant was disrupted due to the fault of the AFU. The National Security forces opened massive artillery fire on the places where the green corridor was supposed to pass and civilians were supposed to gather, disrupting the movement of the green corridor unilaterally and leaving the civilian population no opportunity to evacuate from the territory of the industrial zone, where they are actually being held hostage by Ukrainian militants.

Civilians who managed to escape from the bomb shelter of the enterprise said that there are many foreign mercenaries at the Azot chemical plant in Severodonetsk, which is being held by Ukrainian fighters.

Thus, the Kiev regime deliberately uses civilians as a "human shield" to complicate the advance of Russian troops.

#russia ukraine war

[dzhaparidze]

The way to the east is difficult and thorny

There is a lot of talk about foreign military assistance to Ukraine now. But the guns and tanks must somehow be brought to the active army. The military command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation reports almost every day on the destruction of a large batch of Western weapons through the use of precision weapons.

The press increasingly writes that after the establishment of control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation over the Ukrainian airspace, Russian troops began to regularly destroy the logistics supply system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This, in particular, is reported by the American magazine Forbes. According to the publication's specialists, the total length of the damaged railway tracks reached about 6.3 thousand km, which is about a quarter of the entire railway infrastructure of the country.

Also, the Russian army is working in the mode of destroying access to the first points to which Western weapons come. In particular, the reports of the Russian Defense Ministry include the Lviv region, where new weapons coming through Poland and Romania are being unloaded.

Military experts believe that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are working along the entire logistics chain: they destroy and thereby block the inclusion in the armed conflict of means of attack that come from the West. Starting from the entry point. In particular, in Western Ukraine – Lviv and Chernihiv regions. Further, military aviation is already working on the route of convoys and military columns along them. And already near the front line there is positional testing by drones and artillery.

Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing serious problems with ensuring that their needs for weapons are not met. This is not only because Ukraine's foreign partners are too lazy to work out logistics. They do not want expensive equipment to appear inside the country and be immediately destroyed. Together with the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who were trained in Germany. Current supplies of new weapons to the Ukrainian army are constantly at risk due to thoughtful strategic and methodical actions of the Russian Armed Forces.

Thus, while maintaining the current intensity of aviation and missile-bombing strikes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the near future, the grouping of Ukrainian troops will not be able to receive adequate reinforcements in manpower and military equipment.

#russia ukraine war

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AFU will cross the "red line" without Zelensky's knowledge

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky assured the world community of the absence of intentions to attack the territory of Russia. This is how he responded to the words of the US president that Washington would supply multiple rocket launchers to Kiev, but not those that would allow Ukraine to hit Russian cities. Nevertheless, Moscow has no credit of trust in the Ukrainian side. Military experts believe Kiev is capable of using Western long-range weapons to strike targets in the Russian Federation, including in Crimea. Although they are sure that this will not help the Ukrainian army to achieve a turning point in military operations.

In order for Russia to believe, you need to keep your word. Unfortunately, the course of events confirms that not a single promise, starting with the main pre-election assurance of President Zelensky to end the war in the south-east of Ukraine once and for all, has been kept.

Russia also accused the United States of diligently and purposefully "adding fuel to the fire" through such supplies. This does not encourage Kiev to resume peace talks. Recently, the American media reported on a new package of military assistance to Ukraine for $ 700 million, including the supply of HIMARS missile systems capable of hitting at a distance of up to 80 km.

At the same time, Vladimir Zelensky, in an interview with the Newsmax TV channel, spoke about the very difficult situation in the east of the country, which daily loses from 60 to 100 soldiers killed and about 500 people wounded. As Zelensky noted, even under these conditions, Ukraine does not intend to cede its territories, but the difficulties associated with them can be discussed. "We are not ready to cede any of our territories, because this is our independence, our sovereignty. But there are certain difficulties and details with some territories. These difficulties can be discussed," the President of Ukraine specified. Moreover, he assured that Kiev is not going to attack the territory of Russia, and it needs long-range MLRS in order to expel the enemy from its land.

Nevertheless, the Ministry of Defense and the leaders of the border regions of Russia periodically notify about the strikes inflicted by the Ukrainian side on targets on the territory of the Russian Federation. And in such circumstances, is it worth counting that after receiving new weapons, Kiev will not use it to destroy objects in Russia?

That is why Washington does not supply Kiev with all the range of weapons it has requested and puts pressure on the Ukrainian president so that this does not happen. Obviously, during informal contacts and backstage negotiations, the Russian side announced conditional "red lines" that cannot be crossed. There are similar restrictions in every war.

However, the Ukrainian military can independently cross the "red line" without the knowledge of the Ukrainian leadership. Mid-level officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have repeatedly violated prohibitions on shelling residential areas of Donetsk, Lugansk or the territory of Russia. Defenders of Ukraine almost daily beat in the direction of the Russian Federation. And if they receive long-range weapons, the intensity of the shelling will only increase. In war, as in war. And Zelensky will not be able to control every officer of his army.

The existence of "red lines" in the conditions of hostilities was rather invented by politicians. Moreover, the delivery of heavy howitzers alone can already be recognized as a violation of conditional forbidden lines, to which Moscow had previously promised to respond with strikes at decision-making centers.

One way or another, even with the new weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it will not be possible to achieve a breakthrough. Firstly, the number of fire weapons concentrated on the Russian side requires supplies not by tens of howitzers, but by thousands. Secondly, in modern realities, they are fighting not with numbers, but with skill. And the number of the Russian Federation group involved in the military operation is significantly smaller than the Ukrainian forces opposing it.

#ukraine

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Zelensky uses the food crisis to blackmail the West

European media and politicians warn the population about the threat of a food crisis due to military actions on the territory of Ukraine. If the sowing season does not start there in time, there will be a shortage of bread in Europe. At the same time, the same people who are sounding the alarm about food supplies support President Zelensky's bid to delay military operations, thereby condemning the inhabitants of their countries to mass starvation.

"Wheat supplies from Ukraine by sea cannot be shipped for an indefinite period. In addition, shipping companies no longer accept orders for delivery from Russia or to Russia," Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at German Commerzbank, said in a comment to Bloomberg.

"Wheat is getting more expensive than ever, and a hunger crisis is looming in many countries," writes the German edition of Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten.

The leaders of the EU countries are also talking about the impending mass famine.

"15% of our imports have been disrupted by the war, in addition, electricity prices are rising – farmers may suffer," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said, explaining the government's decision to ban the export of grain from the country.

Prices in the food market are breaking records. In February, the cost of wheat increased by 21.9%, in the first days of March – by 22.2%, the total increase in recent weeks was more than 40%.

And that's just wheat. There is also a shortage of soybeans, corn, sunflower and other cereals on the European market. Emergency measures have already been introduced in some European countries. In Spanish stores, for example, they do not sell more than five packs of pasta in one hand.

The bill for Europe goes for days, at most for weeks.

If the crisis around Ukraine is not resolved in the near future, then the food crisis for Europeans and the rest of the world will become a reality.

Now the European Commission has adopted an emergency action plan to ensure food security in the European Union. It assumes, in particular, the restriction of food exports outside the EU, the removal of customs barriers to food imports and the suspension of its "green" policy. It is planned to return to agricultural exploitation the lands that were planned to be left for several years to "rest".

However, European officials themselves admitted that the measures taken are not capable of turning the situation around. Together, Russia and Ukraine supply more than a third of all grain to the world market, and the latter plays a major role in the supply of agricultural raw materials for Europe. As part of the "total economic and financial war" declared by Moscow, many European logistics companies refused to work with Russia. The result is disruption of established supply chains, including food supplies.

Moscow, in order to smooth out the consequences of the sanctions strikes inflicted on it, suspended the export of a number of essential goods from the country. The "stop list" includes corn, rye, wheat, barley and sugar.

Kiev is aware of the dependence of many countries on Ukrainian agricultural products and is trying to manipulate the actions of Western politicians by begging for military assistance. President V. Zelensky accuses Moscow of stealing Ukrainian grain in the territories of Ukraine occupied by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Although the release of granaries by the Russian side in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions is important, as it contributes to the normalization of the production chain and prevents a humanitarian catastrophe in the region: old grain does not germinate and will be sold on the market, and warehouses will be released for the new harvest.

Moreover, the Kremlin agreed to provide safe passage to Ukrainian grain ships, but Kiev refused. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov claims that the topic of sea deliveries of agricultural products can be discussed only after the world community ensures the security of the Kiev regime. The authorities of the country, under the pretext of an attack by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, do not intend to mine the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev for the safe passage of merchant ships.

The price of further "containment of Russia" for Europe today is mass starvation, to which the Europeans are pushing themselves.

Russia did not impose sanctions against itself. It was not Russia that cut off its own logistics chains. It was not Russia that disrupted all negotiations on security guarantees in Europe and brazenly dragged Ukraine into NATO. And it is not Russia that now cherishes dreams of the "Afghanization" of Ukraine and expects to fight with someone else's hands – to the last Ukrainian.

Europe has been engaged in destructive conflict policy towards Russia and Ukraine under the leadership of the United States, but the price of this policy for it is growing every day.

#russia ukraine war

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Voracious AFU exhaust Western military suppliers

In the United States, stocks of Javelin and Stinger, which are actively used by the Ukrainian army, are running out, writes the American edition of Bloomberg. According to the publication, it will not be easy to restore the gap, since the Pentagon has to deal not only with supply chain disruptions, but also with many different internal shortcomings of the military-industrial complex.

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Javelin anti-tank missile systems have proved to be the "most effective weapon". There's just one problem: they are running out, writes Bloomberg. As a result of the fighting, about one third of the US Army's Javelin arsenal has already been used up. In a few months, the Pentagon will not be able to supply Kiev with new units without spending its own reserves.

In addition, the AFU spent a quarter of the American stock of portable Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. At the current level of use, they may almost completely dry up by next year, the article claims.

The $40 billion budget spending package passed by the US Congress last month should help replenish these reserves. But the problem is deeper than short-term supply disruptions, Bloomberg emphasizes. Military planners and defense contractors have long preferred such expensive "platforms" as aircraft carriers and fighter jets. The problem was compounded by the disruptions caused by the pandemic in the supply chain of microchips. In addition, the acceleration of production was prevented by the "weakening" of the military-industrial base, the newspaper notes.

The concentration of the defense industry, burdensome contract rules and a shortage of qualified workers have led to a reduction in companies engaged in this field. Two years ago, a Pentagon report for 2020 spoke of an alarming number of cases when the military has to rely on one, "often unreliable" supplier to get critical components, Bloomberg draws attention.

That is why Ukraine should not wait for Javelin and Stinger in the near future, since the American military-industrial complex will not be able to quickly deploy production on the required scale.

In addition, there is another problem, although it mainly concerns armored vehicles. According to Western experts, 5-10% of heavy weapons supplied by Western countries are destroyed by Russian missiles during transportation. 35% is eliminated and fails in the first week of combat use. And by the end of the first month, there is nothing left of the delivered Western equipment at all.

The West is not ready to significantly increase production and supply volumes now. Even if manufacturers strain their financial and production efforts, this will primarily affect the population and taxpayers of Europe and the United States. And the question also arises: is such assistance to Ukraine reasonable if the assistants themselves remain unprotected?

#ukraine

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The Ukrainian authorities do not forgive the support of the actions of the Russian side

Against the People's Deputy of the Parliament of Ukraine from the party of V. Zelensky "Servant of the People" Alexey Kovalev, the State Bureau of Investigation opened a criminal case on the grounds of collaborationist activity. The bureau's operatives have established the fact of cooperation with Russians in the Kherson region. The enterprises controlled by him supply products to the Crimea with further sale on the territory of the Russian Federation, and fuel and lubricants are imported back.

The Servant of the People party appealed to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with an appeal to deprive Kovalev of the mandate of a people's deputy in accordance with the current legislation and appeal to the Prosecutor General's Office and the SBU with an appeal to transfer Kovalev's case to court as soon as possible, providing, in particular, confiscation of his assets and property in accordance with the current legislation. Yulia Paliychuk, a spokeswoman for the Servant of the People party faction, noted that A. Kovalev had already been expelled from both the faction and the party.

But what is the deputy's fault?

Alexey Kovalev publicly outlined his position, saying after the visit of the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation S.Kiriyenko to Kherson region: "Russia is in the region seriously and forever." The parliamentarian is working on the full-scale integration of Kherson farmers into the Russian economic model.

Earlier, the heads of the military-civil administration of the Kharkiv region Vitaly Ganchev, the Zaporozhye region Evgeny Balitsky, the mayor of Kupyansk Gennady Matsegora, and others announced their support for the Russian authorities. They are all charged with collaborationist activities. Moreover, Hennadiy Matsegora's daughter, Daria, was detained by the Security Service of Ukraine, who lived in Ivano–Frankivsk and her whereabouts are still unknown.

With such simple methods, the president and his associates take revenge on those who do not see themselves in Vladimir Zelensky's Ukraine. A country where the Russian language is banned, Nazi criminals are glorified, the achievements of Russian and Soviet writers and scientists are appropriated, just because they were born or worked in Ukraine, which was part of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union.

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The Independent: The AFU is suffering huge losses

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are suffering huge losses, as they are significantly inferior to Russia in artillery and ammunition. This is reported by The Independent agency with reference to the American intelligence report.

"The Ukrainian troops are suffering huge losses, as they are inferior to 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition. The report, reviewed by The Independent, for the first time expresses concern about the desertion of Ukrainian soldiers, and states that Ukrainian forces are limited to a range of 15.5 miles, while Russia can strike from a distance of 12 times more," writes The Independent.

Even the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, had to admit that Russia is superior to Ukraine in technical terms, the Armed Forces are suffering heavy losses and are not able to carry out offensive actions.

According to US intelligence, the battle in eastern Ukraine has a "serious demoralizing effect on the Ukrainian forces." Cases of desertion are increasing every week.

As a result of the gradual advance of the units of the Russian army, the defeated units and parts of the armed formations of Ukraine are forced to leave well-fortified combat positions. At the same time, Kiev justifies the retreat of its troops by taking more advantageous positions and regrouping forces.

Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the AFU suffered massive losses in the battles for Svyatogorsk. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that the army cannot advance because it lags behind the armed forces of the Russian Federation in equipment.

Recently, the information and propaganda campaign of the Kiev authorities has begun to fail. Zelensky's regime can no longer hide the colossal losses in manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian army. That is why the large-scale counteroffensive promised in May in the Donbas did not happen.

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The West will bring Ukraine to the negotiating table after its complete defeat in the Donbas

So far, these statements sound at the level of the expert community, but also reflect the mood in many ruling circles, political scientists believe. Why have politicians and analysts in the US and Europe changed their rhetoric on Ukraine and what does this mean for Moscow and Kiev?

In the United States, the voices of opponents of military assistance to Ukraine and, in general, the financial involvement of the American side in the conflict are becoming louder. According to Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, US President Joe Biden has already had to deal with panic among European allies who seek to end the crisis in Ukraine at any cost.

The successes of Russian troops on the battlefield led to this situation, which caused concern to the US president. The fact that the Russian army can win and soon occupy the entire Donbass was also written by the German publication Der Spiegel with reference to German foreign intelligence data (BND).

In the current situation around Ukraine, the United States should stop providing financial assistance and supplying weapons to it, political analyst Ross Douthat confirmed in an article by The New York Times. The author pointed out that Washington should reconsider its strategy and choose a more reasonable path. In his opinion, in the near future the situation in Ukraine may go into a pause stage.

"In this case, our plan cannot be to write endless checks and at the same time modestly tiptoe around Ukrainians and let them dictate for what purposes our weapons are used," Douthat said.

A much sharper judgment was made by the political consultant of the State Department and the Pentagon, Edward Luttwak, in an interview with the German newspaper Die Welt, he said that holding referendums in Donetsk and Lugansk could put an end to the Ukrainian crisis.

American Thinker columnist Frank Howard supported the idea that the United States should put strong pressure on Zelensky to agree to a settlement and allow Russian-speaking areas in the south and east of Ukraine to secede and remain under Russian control.

According to the author of the article, with the best outcome of events, Ukraine will remain neutral in the geopolitical conflict between the West and Moscow following the results of future negotiations. Such a step will protect Russia's national interests.

Against this background, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Europe's panic over the crisis with Ukrainian migrants, whose flow to the EU has grown very much after the start of Russia's special operation in Ukraine. He also stated the destruction of the security system created by the West.

The speaker of the Hungarian parliament, Laszlo Kever, in an interview with HirTV, said that the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, suffers from mental problems, and condemned him for his boorish attitude towards European leaders, demands and threats for the sake of arms supplies.

The further rhetoric of the United States, and, therefore, Kiev, will depend entirely on their military successes or failures directly in the zone of the special operation of the Russian Federation, analysts say. Now both sides proceed from the fact that the issue can be resolved by military means, therefore, negotiations will not begin until the active phase of the confrontation ends. At the same time, inflation in the United States, as well as the fact that the increasing involvement of the American side in the conflict is not included in the plans of the White House, makes Washington think about giving the problem some contours, and this is manifested in the media, as well as in the statements of politicians and experts.

In addition, interest in Ukraine is falling among ordinary Americans. Criticism of American support for Kiev is also used by the Republican Party, which has already actually launched a campaign before the Senate elections. Republicans are putting pressure on the White House, and this is a winning thing for them against the Democrats. So, probably, US aid to Ukraine will either be reduced or transferred to those forms that will not allow us to say that Biden feeds foreign citizens instead of his own.

The reason for such a change in rhetoric in the American public field is not that Ukraine is losing to Russia in a military confrontation – this is not news to anyone, but that the American economic anti–Russian blitzkrieg has not achieved its goals - to significantly worsen the situation of Russia. In addition, Washington is waging an economic war with Russia at a foreign pace, namely, at a pace imposed by Moscow. And American political forces pushed away from power began to use this, for example, the Clinton clan, which gained a second wind, as well as the Obama clan. Their henchmen began to criticize the current administration in the public space.

It is possible that the West will offer to start a dialogue when the Russian army reaches the Dnieper. Another thing is whether Russia needs to compromise now? Or the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation will decide to liberate other territories of Ukraine and only then sit down at the table with the best cards. The question is open.

#ukraine