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#he's def a very minor-rank angel but
dilfosaur · 16 days
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gdi had to doodle angel!des again bc it's fun
brief design breakdown bc im crazy
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doctorbobkelso · 7 years
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Buffyverse tagging meme: I was tagged by @tattooeyes​!  Thank you Dali!!
Suuuuuper long so I’m putting this under a cut
*top fifteen characters?
In no particular order:
Buffy Summers
Tara Maclay
Rupert Giles
Faith Lehane
Lilah Morgan
Jenny Calendar
Cordelia Chase
Winifred Burkle
Angel (on his own show)
Harmony Kendall
Charles Gunn
Anya Jenkins
Dawn Summers
Wesley Wyndam-Pryce
Jonathan Levinson
*favorite minor characters?
Kendra Young, Anne Steele, Gwen Raiden, Amanda, Olivia, Clem, Ethan Rayne
*ranking of favorite seasons of both shows?
Buffy: 6, 2, 5, 1, 3, 4, 7
Angel: 1, 5, 2, 3, 4
*top ten episodes of both shows?
In no particular order:
Buffy:
Passion
The Gift
Prophecy Girl
I, Robot...You, Jane
Becoming, Part 2
Conversations With Dead People
Family
The Body
Once More, With Feeling
Anne
Angel:
Five By Five/Sanctuary
Are You Now Or Have You Ever Been
Not Fade Away
Shells
The Magic Bullet
Smile Time
You’re Welcome
Harm’s Way
Rm w/ a Vu
Lonely People
My Buffy list is probably off of what it should be, but those are all def Good episodes, I just might be missing one that should be on there.
My Angel list, on the other hand, is suuuuper rough because individual episodes rarely stand out to me in that show, so I’m positive that I’m leaving off episodes that would actually be my favorites.  Like I don’t have any good Lilah episodes on here and I know there’s a good Fred episode or two that should be here but without individually sorting through all of the episode summaries I wouldn’t be able to find them.
*ats or btvs?
Definitely Buffy.  Like Angel is rad and it has such an interesting atmosphere but I’ll take the optimism of Buffy any day, not to mention that Angel is more Abstract to me??  Whereas Buffy is super relatable and cathartic so much of the time.
*least favorite main character?
Xander hands down lmao.  Every time I watch the show I try but every time he makes me want to scream.
*top ten ships?
Okay, like Dali. I don’t have enough romantic ships I’m Passionate about, so I’m also gonna include platonic ships:
Calendiles!!!
Fuffy
Spangel
Cangel
Tillow
Mehane
Buffy/Giles (Platonic)
Buffy/Tara (Platonic)
Jenny/Faith (Platonic) (All of Celia’s headcanons are Wonderful so I’m 100% on board with this dynamic)
Dawn/Tara (Platonic)
*do you write fanfic?
I mean I once wrote one chapter of a humorous (or attempting to be, anyway) My Immortal-esque collab fic with a friend that I honestly forgot that I’d written until very recently but other than that, no
*what fanfic do you read?
I honestly have a TON of bookmarked fanfic (most if not all of it Calendiles, iirc) but I’m so bad at reading that I rarely ever read Buffy fic.  I’ve read some oneshots here and there, I’ve been keeping up with Bravery (which is flawless), and I read Career Change which is a super interesting vamp!Giles AU, but I don’t read enough fanfic tbh.
*when did you start watching?
I mean, I watched the first half of season one yeeears back with my dad and sister, and then I randomly caught Bewitched, Bothered, and Bewildered on TV at some point later, but I actually Started Watching on January 23, 2012, and yes I know it down to the day shhhh (which means I’m a few days away from hitting five years come to think of it)
*show recommendations for Buffyverse fans?
I’m really bad at recommending Similar Things when it comes to literally any medium and I don’t trust my recs either so *shrug*
*do you own/collect anything related to the shows?
Yep!  I have both shows on DVD (Angel is the Collector’s Edition), all the Angel: After The Fall graphic novels, all of the season 8 library editions, the Fray comic, all three Watcher’s Guides, the Buffy: The Making of a Slayer book, all four Buffy soundtracks (OMWF, The Score, Radio Sunnydale, and BTVS: The Album), the Angel soundtrack, three of the novelizations (including The Journals of Rupert Giles Vol. 1 signed by Anthony Head), the library playset with figures of Giles, Oz, Buffy, baby Willow, and Tara, a Sunnydale High shirt, a Grr, Argh shirt, Buffy: Chaos Bleeds for GameCube, and I have autographed photos from James Marsters, Emma Caulfield, and Amber Benson, plus a pic of me with all three of them and a pic with James and Amber individually. Also idk if this counts but I do have all the pieces of my Giles cosplay, including my handmade recreations of his drawings from First Date and a self-made “I’m a Watcher, Ask Me How!” button.  I also have a couple Buffy posters lying around somewhere in with all of my posters from college, and my college did a thing where we could get custom street signs made and I have a “Revello Dr.”
*how often will you watch an episode?
It’s hard to gauge??? Used to be I’d watch Buffy super regularly, but since Scrubs became my Super Comfort Show I’ve watched it less frequently.  But on a decently regular basis, my mom’ll put an episode up and I watch as a result of that.  I haven’t done a full rewatch in a while now but I intend to get on that soonish.
Angel’s a different story. I rarely watch episodes aside from Five By Five/Sanctuary (because I always include those in Buffy rewatches, or if I’m having a lot of Faith feelings), and I’ve only rewatched it in full once.
*how many times have you watched either show all the way through?
Oops I just partially answered that question lmao.  Angel I’ve watched twice through.  Buffy I’ve watched four times through in full, though with the exception of most of season seven and a few other episodes I’ve seen all of the episodes at least five times.
*five unpopular opinions?
Connor may have screwed up but he was Good and he deserved better.
Angel (the show)’s ~darkness~ in no way makes it superior or more mature, nor is Buffy inherently less mature solely because it deals with high school.  That might not be strictly “unpopular” but there is at least some part of the fandom that feels that way and I do not understand.
I have a loooot of negative Scooby feelings, mostly surrounding Xander and Willow.  Buffy had crap for a support system and they were often super selfish.
Xander is not “the heart” of the group and his oft-praised speech to Dawn in Potential was a load of garbage that shows exactly how little he understands the burden that Buffy bears.  This overlaps with the last one but honestly it deserves its own slot.
Kennedy is great and is severely undervalued by the fandom.
*least favorite thing about the fandom?
I mean, my most negative experiences have typically been discussions with my mother, so that’s not strictly “fandom.”  But her insistence on stanning Spike and blaming Buffy for Bad Things drives me up a wall, as does her unwillingness to forgive Faith at all and telling me that I only like her because she’s hot. (Oh, honey.)
Least favorite thing about the fandom at large is honestly probably Bangel Discourse, not because there aren’t worse things or even because I’ve encountered it that often, but just because it bugs me on a very personal level.  People are (rightfully) very critical of age gaps, but then we have a ~hot vampire~ centuries older than a teenager and people stop caring and talk about how “they don’t age physically” as if that makes it different (esp since Angel was 26 when he was sired!!!), even though maturity comes out of living life and not out of getting wrinkles, so basically what people like that are saying is “I don’t care about age gaps as long as it’s still attractive to me.” Which makes me want to scream, especially because all that does is misdirect young people in danger of an abusive relationship with somebody much older into thinking that the only “problem” is attractiveness.  And tbh few things piss me off more than feeling the need to verbalize how problematic age gaps are (when I am thinking about that stuff constantly on a daily basis because that’s my life) all because it’s more important to people that they can pretend their ship is unproblematic rather than acknowledging that Angel having sex with Buffy was literal statutory rape.  I’m not telling anyone what to ship just please for the love of all that is good please stop The Discourse
Re: tagging: Honestly this was a lot of fun and I’d honestly LOVE to see everybody’s responses so any Buffy-loving mutuals who haven’t done it yet definitely should, if you want to, and absolutely say I tagged you bc I am 100% serious when I say I’d love to see people’s responses to this!  Buut I also don’t know who’s already done this / who wants to do the whole thing bc I know it’s a bit of An Endeavor, so I don’t know who to directly tag.
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junker-town · 7 years
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The Arizona Wildcats are checking every box on the Program Collapse Checklist
This program doesn’t sustain success well, and Rich Rodriguez still needs to follow up on his recent division title.
This preview originally published May 24 and has since been updated.
Since joining the Pac-10 in the 1970s, Arizona has proved it can produce high-level football. The Wildcats have made their way into the AP top 10 in eight of the last 35 seasons, not quite the frequency of a USC, but quite solid.
Seasons with at least one week in the AP top 10, last 35 years
24 — USC
15 — UCLA
14 — Oregon, Washington
11 — Colorado
8 — Arizona, Stanford
6 — California
5 — Arizona State, Utah
4 — Washington State
3 — Oregon State
Of course, spending part of a season in the top 10 isn’t the same thing as finishing there. You can ride a hot streak or a light schedule or one big upset into a brief trip near the top; sustaining it is harder.
AP top 10 finishes, last 35 years
12 — USC
8 — Oregon, UCLA
6 — Colorado, Washington
5 — Stanford
4 — Washington State
3 — Arizona State, Utah
2 — Arizona, California
1 — Oregon State
On average, 47 percent of the Pac-12’s top-10 visitors finished there. Washington State made few trips to the top but stuck the landing in all four instances. Stanford remained in place five of eight times. Arizona State went three-for-five.
Then there’s Arizona. Not only have the Wildcats been able to finish only two of their top-10 trips; in four of eight instances, they finished out of the polls altogether.
In 1983, Larry Smith’s Wildcats surged to 4-0 and third in the country. They finished 7-3-1.
In 1992, Dick Tomey’s squad upset No. 1 Washington and moved to ninth, then lost its final three.
After sticking at 10th, the Wildcats began 1994 4-0 and got up to sixth. They went 4-4 and then, for good measure, went 18-16 the next three years.
After an all-timer season in 1998 (12-1 and fourth in the country), they began 1999 fourth, a legitimate title contender. But they got pasted by No. 3 Penn State to start the year, finished 6-6, and didn’t top six wins again until 2008.
In 2010, a seven-year rebuild under Mike Stoops peaked; the Wildcats upset No. 9 Iowa and rose to 4-0 and ninth. They then lost six of their last nine and five of their first six the next year.
In 2014, Rodriguez’s third year, UA went 10-2, won the Pac-12 South, and finished the regular season No. 9. They lost the conference title game by 38 and fell victim to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. The win total fell to seven in 2015 and three last fall.
A decent head coach can push the boulder up the hill in Tucson, but one stumble, and it rolls all the way back down. Nobody loses it like Arizona, and when it’s lost, it takes a while to get found.
Rodriguez and his Wildcats enter 2017 in desperate need of traction. After winning 11 of 13 in late-2013 and 2014, they have gone 10-17 since. Last fall, a 2-1 start begot an injury-plagued, 1-8 finish.
They couldn’t keep a quarterback, running back, offensive lineman, or defender healthy and plummeted to 96th in S&P+. They saw a strong recruiting class dissolve in a pool of decommitments. Four-star Los Angeles athlete Greg Johnson flipped to USC, four star quarterback Braxton Burmeister flipped to Oregon, etc.
Rodriguez also watched Greg Byrne, the athletic director who hired him, leave for Alabama. He has to be feeling intense heat.
The offense probably isn’t much of a concern. Before 2016’s cavalcade, every Rodriguez offense at UA ranked between 15th and 32nd in Off. S&P+, and there’s reason to assume a rebound is in the works, especially with the experience that last year’s injuries created. Arizona now has three experienced quarterbacks, three intriguing running backs, and seven linemen with starting experience.
The defense remains a mystery, and not the good kind. The Wildcats plummeted to 112th in Def. S&P+ in 2015, and Rodriguez brought in some new assistant coaches, including coordinator Marcel Yates. But they improved to only 105th.
Until you are fired, you have time to turn things around. Arizona should have an exciting offense and faces a schedule loaded with tossup games; S&P+ gives the Wildcats between a 39 and 51 percent chance of winning in eight games this fall. With a healthy two-deep and fourth-quarter execution, the Wildcats could have a lovely season. But when Arizona goes off the rails, it’s generally safe to assume it’s not finding its way back for a while.
2016 in review
2016 Arizona statistical profile.
Every team experiences ups and downs over the course of 12 weeks, but there weren’t very many plot twists for Arizona. Through four games, the Wildcats were a frustrating team with high potential; they lost to a good BYU and a great Washington, they beat Hawaii, and they tried as hard as they could to lose to Grambling.
Attrition began to take its toll when the calendar flipped to October. And things got really ugly.
First 4 games (2-2): Avg. percentile performance: 56% (~top 55) | Avg. score: UA 31, Opp 26 (plus-5) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-1.1 PPG
Next 7 games (0-7): Avg. percentile performance: 24% (~top 100) | Avg. score: Opp 46, UA 17 (minus-29) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-18.3 PPG
The offense’s scoring output nearly halved, and the defense’s output allowed nearly doubled. After a semi-competitive, 13-point loss to Utah, the Wildcats proceeded to lose their next five games by a combined 170 points.
Injury can explain a lot of Arizona’s stumble, but the magnitude of the stumble was disturbing. The Wildcats salvaged some bragging rights, at least, taking out two months of frustration in a 56-35 win over Arizona State.
Offense
Full advanced stats glossary.
In 2015, we saw a RichRod offense mid-evolution. Rodriguez is known for his work with mobile quarterbacks — Woody Dantzler at Clemson, Pat White at West Virginia, Denard Robinson at Michigan, etc. — but despite decent mobility from quarterback Anu Solomon, Arizona was a pass-first team. Including sacks, Arizona attempted about 40 passes per game, and UA was in the bottom 40 in run rate on both standard and passing downs.
In 2016, we saw a shift back. UA was in the top 40 in run rate on both types of downs; Arizona QBs attempted fewer than 30 passes per game and carried the ball about 15 times per game. Solomon couldn’t stay healthy, but then-sophomore Brandon Dawkins’ running was easily the most reliable weapon.
Of course, Dawkins had to deal with a rib injury and a concussion. Solomon struggled. Third-stringer Khalil Tate threw 45 passes. Hell, fourth-stringer Zach Werlinger threw five.
Meanwhile, no running back could stay on the field long enough to attempt even 77 carries. Nick Wilson, a freshman star in 2014, carried just 55 times in five games, erupting in the season opener and then barely seeing the field. Freshman J.J. Taylor erupted for 265 yards against Hawaii and Washington and was lost for the season to injury. Zach Green ended up getting the most carries but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry until a nice game against ASU.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
J.J. Taylor
Oh yeah, and only two linemen started all 12 games. This was a disaster.
On the bright side, there’s plenty of experience and upside to go around.
QB: Dawkins, at this point known as much for tackling Miss Arizona as anything else, averaged 8.6 yards per (non-sack) carry and a team-best 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Tate has a cannon and averaged 15.2 yards per completion and 5.5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, former blue-chipper and first-round MLB pick Donavan Tate is joining the team after a few years in the minors.
RB: Wilson and Taylor combined to average 6.2 yards per carry early in the season before injury, and if they had remained healthy, this offense might have looked completely different. But Wilson has another year of eligibility, and Taylor is now the most proven redshirt freshman imaginable. Plus, Green’s final impression in 2016 was his best, and four-star freshman Nathan Tilford joins the mix.
OL: Of the seven players to start at least three games up front, six return. That includes guard Jacob Alsadek, a starter for most of three seasons, and left tackle Layth Friekh.
There’s turnover at receiver, where three of last year’s top four targets are gone. But slot receiver Shun Brown, by far the most exciting member of last year’s receiving corps, returns. He averaged 13.7 yards per target and had huge games against Hawaii and Washington (combined: 12 catches, 206 yards) before the run game fell apart.
There is a distinct lack of size in the receiving corps; no returnee over 6’0 caught more than seven balls last year. But if either a veteran like 6’5 senior Shawn Poindexter or a youngster like 6’4 freshman Drew Dixon or 6’5 freshman Bryce Gilbert can provide an occasional post-up threat on the outside, this offense should have what it needs: size up front, multiple exciting dual-threats behind center, and a stable of dynamite backs. Rodriguez gets the benefit of the doubt when it comes to offense, and he has the benefit of experience and options this fall as well.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Brandon Dawkins
Defense
The Arizona defense, meanwhile, has lost all benefit of the doubt.
Rodriguez ended a long coaching relationship with coordinator Jeff Casteel after a disappointing 2015. The Wildcats dealt with a multitude of injuries, barely got any playing time out of All-American Scooby Wright III, and plummeted out of the Def. S&P+ top 100.
Bringing in not only Yates, but also linebackers coach Scott Boone, was supposed to breathe life into the Wildcat attack. And with Yates’ reputation as a recruiter, it was supposed to liven up the talent acquisition potential, too. But a fresh round of attrition at every level of the defense prevented improvement, and losses prevented a recruiting upgrade.
With uncertainty everywhere on the depth chart, Arizona’s 2016 defense was ultra-conservative; the Wildcats did a decent job of avoiding big plays; they allowed 4.7 gains per game of 20-plus yards (60th in FBS) and 3.1 such passes per game (54th), and that constituted the closest thing they had to a strength.
They were dreadfully passive and inefficient, ranking 113th in success rate and 109th in havoc rate. And now, just as they have compiled a wealth of experience in the secondary, they are starting over at linebacker.
The secondary was the closest thing Arizona had to a strength. The Wildcats were 113th in Passing S&P+, mind you, but the DBs at least made some disruptive plays. That’s more than you could say about the rest of the defense. Plus, they were both banged up and ultra young — four freshman DBs and two sophomores logged at least 8 tackles. Almost everybody returns, including corners Dane Cruikshank and Jace Whittaker (who combined for 21 passes defensed) and safeties Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Isaiah Hayes, Tristan Cooper, and Jarvis McCall Jr. (who combined for 10.5 tackles for loss and 12 PDs).
Considering how much Arizona plays with five defensive backs, fielding a deep secondary might be the top priority, and I think the pass defense could improve with stability and experience. The DBs will need help, though, and it’s not a guarantee that they’ll get it.
Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
Jace Whittaker
Last year’s top five linebackers are all gone, as are two of three starting linemen. Yikes. Maybe the most proven pieces in the front six (tackle Parker Zellers, end Justin Belknap) are former walk-ons, which is rarely a good sign, even for a school that made a star out of Wright.
Only two members of the front six logged more than 3.5 tackles for loss in their last seasons: senior linebacker DeAndre’ Miller and tackle and Boise State transfer Dereck Boles [update: Boles is gone to USF].
The addition of 310-pound JUCO transfer Sione Taufahema helps from a size standpoint, but there is a defined lack of disruption here. Zellers and Miller each had three sacks last year; all other front-six returnees combined for four. And Boles aside, nobody had more than two non-sack TFLs. That’s not going to cut it.
Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
Parker Zellers
Special Teams
Despite defensive collapse, Arizona managed to eke out seven wins in 2015 because of offense and special teams. But not only did the offense regress through attrition last fall; the special teams unit also fell apart. Arizona fell from 26th to 114th in Special Teams S&P+, costing the Wildcats a couple of points per game and contributing to Zona’s fall from 3-2 to 0-2 in one-possession finishes.
The Wildcats ranked no better than 74th in any one special teams category, and while young legs contributed to this — punter/place-kicker Josh Pollack was a sophomore, as was kickoffs guy Edgar Gastelum — the return men were upperclassmen, and returns were the weakest part of the unit. Pollack could develop into something solid, but the Wildcats could use some pop in returns. Will they get it?
2017 outlook
2017 Schedule & Projection Factors
Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Northern Arizona NR 23.8 92% 9-Sep Houston 49 -0.2 50% 16-Sep at UTEP 126 16.0 82% 22-Sep Utah 45 -0.9 48% 7-Oct at Colorado 50 -5.0 39% 14-Oct UCLA 34 -3.3 42% 21-Oct at California 55 -4.4 40% 28-Oct Washington State 40 -2.1 45% 4-Nov at USC 7 -22.8 9% 11-Nov Oregon State 54 0.5 51% 18-Nov at Oregon 23 -12.6 23% 25-Nov at Arizona State 58 -4.2 40%
Projected S&P+ Rk 68 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 44 / 79 Projected wins 5.6 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 4.0 (48) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 42 / 39 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -7 / 0.5 2016 TO Luck/Game -3.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 75% (70%, 79%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 3.6 (-0.6)
From a macro view, Arizona is checking every box on the Program Collapse Checklist.
Transfers? Check. Solomon is a Baylor Bear, starting linebacker John Kenny left after graduating, etc.
Key decommitments? Check. What once looked like a program-shifting class ended up ninth in the Pac-12 and 44th overall, per the 247Sports Composite.
A run of blowout losses? Check.
Key assistant coaching changes not immediately panning out? Check.
This doesn’t look good for Rodriguez, but again, you have a chance to turn things around as long as you’re not fired.
While Arizona’s S&P+ projection (68th) is less than encouraging, the number of potential close games on this schedule is staggering. Eight of 12 games are projected within five points, with two likely wins (Northern Arizona, at UTEP) and two likely losses (at USC, at Oregon). Split those eight, and you’re bowling. Win six of eight, and you’re the subject of some “Turnaround!” headlines.
Team preview stats
All power conference preview data to date.
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junker-town · 7 years
Text
The Arizona Wildcats are checking every box on the Program Collapse Checklist
This program doesn’t sustain success well, and Rich Rodriguez still needs to follow up on his recent division title.
Since joining the Pac-10 in the 1970s, Arizona has proved it can produce high-level football. The Wildcats have made their way into the AP top 10 in eight of the last 35 seasons, not quite the frequency of a USC, but quite solid.
Seasons with at least one week in the AP top 10, last 35 years
24 — USC
15 — UCLA
14 — Oregon, Washington
11 — Colorado
8 — Arizona, Stanford
6 — California
5 — Arizona State, Utah
4 — Washington State
3 — Oregon State
Of course, spending part of a season in the top 10 isn’t the same thing as finishing there. You can ride a hot streak or a light schedule or one big upset into a brief trip near the top; sustaining it is harder.
AP top 10 finishes, last 35 years
12 — USC
8 — Oregon, UCLA
6 — Colorado, Washington
5 — Stanford
4 — Washington State
3 — Arizona State, Utah
2 — Arizona, California
1 — Oregon State
On average, 47 percent of the Pac-12’s top-10 visitors finished there. Washington State made few trips to the top but stuck the landing in all four instances. Stanford remained in place five of eight times. Arizona State went three-for-five.
Then there’s Arizona. Not only have the Wildcats been able to finish only two of their top-10 trips; in four of eight instances, they finished out of the polls altogether.
In 1983, Larry Smith’s Wildcats surged to 4-0 and third in the country. They finished 7-3-1.
In 1992, Dick Tomey’s squad upset No. 1 Washington and moved to ninth, then lost its final three.
After sticking at 10th, the Wildcats began 1994 4-0 and got up to sixth. They went 4-4 and then, for good measure, went 18-16 the next three years.
After an all-timer season in 1998 (12-1 and fourth in the country), they began 1999 fourth, a legitimate title contender. But they got pasted by No. 3 Penn State to start the year, finished 6-6, and didn’t top six wins again until 2008.
In 2010, a seven-year rebuild under Mike Stoops peaked; the Wildcats upset No. 9 Iowa and rose to 4-0 and ninth. They then lost six of their last nine and five of their first six the next year.
In 2014, Rodriguez’s third year, UA went 10-2, won the Pac-12 South, and finished the regular season No. 9. They lost the conference title game by 38 and fell victim to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. The win total fell to seven in 2015 and three last fall.
A decent head coach can push the boulder up the hill in Tucson, but one stumble, and it rolls all the way back down. Nobody loses it like Arizona, and when it’s lost, it takes a while to get found.
Rodriguez and his Wildcats enter 2017 in desperate need of traction. After winning 11 of 13 in late-2013 and 2014, they have gone 10-17 since. Last fall, a 2-1 start begot an injury-plagued, 1-8 finish.
They couldn’t keep a quarterback, running back, offensive lineman, or defender healthy and plummeted to 96th in S&P+. They saw a strong recruiting class dissolve in a pool of decommitments. Four-star Los Angeles athlete flipped to USC, four star quarterback Braxton Burmeister flipped to Oregon, etc.
Rodriguez also watched Greg Byrne, the athletic director who hired him, leave for Alabama. He has to be feeling intense heat.
The offense probably isn’t much of a concern. Before 2016’s cavalcade, every Rodriguez offense at UA ranked between 15th and 32nd in Off. S&P+, and there’s reason to assume a rebound is in the works, especially with the experience that last year’s injuries created. Arizona now has three experienced quarterbacks, three intriguing running backs, and seven linemen with starting experience.
The defense remains a mystery, and not the good kind. The Wildcats plummeted to 112th in Def. S&P+ in 2015, and Rodriguez brought in some new assistant coaches, including coordinator Marcel Yates. But they improved to only 105th.
Until you are fired, you have time to turn things around. Arizona should have an exciting offense and faces a schedule loaded with tossup games; S&P+ gives the Wildcats between a 39 and 51 percent chance of winning in eight games this fall. With a healthy two-deep and fourth-quarter execution, the Wildcats could have a lovely season. But when Arizona goes off the rails, it’s generally safe to assume it’s not finding its way back for a while.
2016 in review
2016 Arizona statistical profile.
Every team experiences ups and downs over the course of 12 weeks, but there weren’t very many plot twists for Arizona. Through four games, the Wildcats were a frustrating team with high potential; they lost to a good BYU and a great Washington, they beat Hawaii, and they tried as hard as they could to lose to Grambling.
Attrition began to take its toll when the calendar flipped to October. And things got really ugly.
First 4 games (2-2): Avg. percentile performance: 56% (~top 55) | Avg. score: UA 31, Opp 26 (plus-5) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-1.1 PPG
Next 7 games (0-7): Avg. percentile performance: 24% (~top 100) | Avg. score: Opp 46, UA 17 (minus-29) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-18.3 PPG
The offense’s scoring output nearly halved, and the defense’s output allowed nearly doubled. After a semi-competitive, 13-point loss to Utah, the Wildcats proceeded to lose their next five games by a combined 170 points.
Injury can explain a lot of Arizona’s stumble, but the magnitude of the stumble was disturbing. The Wildcats salvaged some bragging rights, at least, taking out two months of frustration in a 56-35 win over Arizona State.
Offense
Full advanced stats glossary.
In 2015, we saw a RichRod offense mid-evolution. Rodriguez is known for his work with mobile quarterbacks — Woody Dantzler at Clemson, Pat White at West Virginia, Denard Robinson at Michigan, etc. — but despite decent mobility from quarterback Anu Solomon, Arizona was a pass-first team. Including sacks, Arizona attempted about 40 passes per game, and UA was in the bottom 40 in run rate on both standard and passing downs.
In 2016, we saw a shift back. UA was in the top 40 in run rate on both types of downs; Arizona QBs attempted fewer than 30 passes per game and carried the ball about 15 times per game. Solomon couldn’t stay healthy, but then-sophomore Brandon Dawkins’ running was easily the most reliable weapon.
Of course, Dawkins had to deal with a rib injury and a concussion. Solomon struggled. Third-stringer Khalil Tate threw 45 passes. Hell, fourth-stringer Zach Werlinger threw five.
Meanwhile, no running back could stay on the field long enough to attempt even 77 carries. Nick Wilson, a freshman star in 2014, carried just 55 times in five games, erupting in the season opener and then barely seeing the field. Freshman J.J. Taylor erupted for 265 yards against Hawaii and Washington and was lost for the season to injury. Zach Green ended up getting the most carries but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry until a nice game against ASU.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
J.J. Taylor
Oh yeah, and only two linemen started all 12 games. This was a disaster.
On the bright side, there’s plenty of experience and upside to go around.
QB: Dawkins, at this point known as much for tackling Miss Arizona as anything else, averaged 8.6 yards per (non-sack) carry and a team-best 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Tate has a cannon and averaged 15.2 yards per completion and 5.5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, former blue-chipper and first-round MLB pick Donavan Tate is joining the team after a few years in the minors.
RB: Wilson and Taylor combined to average 6.2 yards per carry early in the season before injury, and if they had remained healthy, this offense might have looked completely different. But Wilson has another year of eligibility, and Taylor is now the most proven redshirt freshman imaginable. Plus, Green’s final impression in 2016 was his best, and four-star freshman Nathan Tilford joins the mix.
OL: Of the seven players to start at least three games up front, six return. That includes guard Jacob Alsadek, a starter for most of three seasons, and left tackle Layth Friekh.
There’s turnover at receiver, where three of last year’s top four targets are gone. But slot receiver Shun Brown, by far the most exciting member of last year’s receiving corps, returns. He averaged 13.7 yards per target and had huge games against Hawaii and Washington (combined: 12 catches, 206 yards) before the run game fell apart.
There is a distinct lack of size in the receiving corps; no returnee over 6’0 caught more than seven balls last year. But if either a veteran like 6’5 senior Shawn Poindexter or a youngster like 6’4 freshman Drew Dixon or 6’5 freshman Bryce Gilbert can provide an occasional post-up threat on the outside, this offense should have what it needs: size up front, multiple exciting dual-threats behind center, and a stable of dynamite backs. Rodriguez gets the benefit of the doubt when it comes to offense, and he has the benefit of experience and options this fall as well.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Brandon Dawkins
Defense
The Arizona defense, meanwhile, has lost all benefit of the doubt.
Rodriguez ended a long coaching relationship with coordinator Jeff Casteel after a disappointing 2015. The Wildcats dealt with a multitude of injuries, barely got any playing time out of All-American Scooby Wright III, and plummeted out of the Def. S&P+ top 100.
Bringing in not only Yates, but also linebackers coach Scott Boone, was supposed to breathe life into the Wildcat attack. And with Yates’ reputation as a recruiter, it was supposed to liven up the talent acquisition potential, too. But a fresh round of attrition at every level of the defense prevented improvement, and losses prevented a recruiting upgrade.
With uncertainty everywhere on the depth chart, Arizona’s 2016 defense was ultra-conservative; the Wildcats did a decent job of avoiding big plays; they allowed 4.7 gains per game of 20-plus yards (60th in FBS) and 3.1 such passes per game (54th), and that constituted the closest thing they had to a strength.
They were dreadfully passive and inefficient, ranking 113th in success rate and 109th in havoc rate. And now, just as they have compiled a wealth of experience in the secondary, they are starting over at linebacker.
The secondary was the closest thing Arizona had to a strength. The Wildcats were 113th in Passing S&P+, mind you, but the DBs at least made some disruptive plays. That’s more than you could say about the rest of the defense. Plus, they were both banged up and ultra young — four freshman DBs and two sophomores logged at least 8 tackles. Almost everybody returns, including corners Dane Cruikshank and Jace Whittaker (who combined for 21 passes defensed) and safeties Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Isaiah Hayes, Tristan Cooper, and Jarvis McCall Jr. (who combined for 10.5 tackles for loss and 12 PDs).
Considering how much Arizona plays with five defensive backs, fielding a deep secondary might be the top priority, and I think the pass defense could improve with stability and experience. The DBs will need help, though, and it’s not a guarantee that they’ll get it.
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Jace Whittaker
Last year’s top five linebackers are all gone, as are two of three starting linemen. Yikes. Maybe the most proven pieces in the front six (tackle Parker Zellers, end Justin Belknap) are former walk-ons, which is rarely a good sign, even for a school that made a star out of Wright.
Only two members of the front six logged more than 3.5 tackles for loss in their last seasons: senior linebacker DeAndre’ Miller and tackle and Boise State transfer Dereck Boles. Defensive tackle Noah Jefferson, a USC transfer, is a former four-star recruit but probably won’t be eligible until 2018.
The addition of Boles and 310-pound JUCO transfer Sione Taufahema helps from a size standpoint, but there is a defined lack of disruption here. Zellers and Miller each had three sacks last year; all other front-six returnees combined for four. And Boles aside, nobody had more than two non-sack TFLs. That’s not going to cut it.
Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
Parker Zellers
Special Teams
Despite defensive collapse, Arizona managed to eke out seven wins in 2015 because of offense and special teams. But not only did the offense regress through attrition last fall; the special teams unit also fell apart. Arizona fell from 26th to 114th in Special Teams S&P+, costing the Wildcats a couple of points per game and contributing to Zona’s fall from 3-2 to 0-2 in one-possession finishes.
The Wildcats ranked no better than 74th in any one special teams category, and while young legs contributed to this — punter/place-kicker Josh Pollack was a sophomore, as was kickoffs guy Edgar Gastelum — the return men were upperclassmen, and returns were the weakest part of the unit. Pollack could develop into something solid, but the Wildcats could use some pop in returns. Will they get it?
2017 outlook
2017 Schedule & Projection Factors
Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Northern Arizona NR 23.8 92% 9-Sep Houston 49 -0.2 50% 16-Sep at UTEP 126 16.0 82% 22-Sep Utah 45 -0.9 48% 7-Oct at Colorado 50 -5.0 39% 14-Oct UCLA 34 -3.3 42% 21-Oct at California 55 -4.4 40% 28-Oct Washington State 40 -2.1 45% 4-Nov at USC 7 -22.8 9% 11-Nov Oregon State 54 0.5 51% 18-Nov at Oregon 23 -12.6 23% 25-Nov at Arizona State 58 -4.2 40%
Projected S&P+ Rk 68 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 44 / 79 Projected wins 5.6 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 4.0 (48) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 42 / 39 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -7 / 0.5 2016 TO Luck/Game -3.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 75% (70%, 79%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 3.6 (-0.6)
From a macro view, Arizona is checking every box on the Program Collapse Checklist.
Transfers? Check. Solomon is a Baylor Bear, starting linebacker John Kenny left after graduating, etc.
Key decommitments? Check. What once looked like a program-shifting class ended up ninth in the Pac-12 and 44th overall, per the 247Sports Composite.
A run of blowout losses? Check.
Key assistant coaching changes not immediately panning out? Check.
This doesn’t look good for Rodriguez, but again, you have a chance to turn things around as long as you’re not fired.
While Arizona’s S&P+ projection (68th) is less than encouraging, the number of potential close games on this schedule is staggering. Eight of 12 games are projected within five points, with two likely wins (Northern Arizona, at UTEP) and two likely losses (at USC, at Oregon). Split those eight, and you’re bowling. Win six of eight, and you’re the subject of some “Turnaround!” headlines.
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